26th june 2020 · additionally, police have warned that the new norm of wearing a facemask in...
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26th June 2020
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COVID-19 REPORT
SUMMARY
• The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally is now almost 10 million with more than 490,000 deaths recorded, according to Worldometer.
• Across Europe, COVID-19 restrictions continue to be lifted cautiously, with most nations adopting a phased
approach to reopening businesses and resuming social activities. Most of Europe’s internal borders are now open and there are expectations that external borders could be partially opened from 1st July.
• The current trend in COVID-19 related illness at meat processing plants is believed to have started by car sharing or the staff canteen, which has been suggested by UK Environment secretary George Eustice. Outbreaks have occurred at a number of sites across the UK, Spain, France, Germany, and the US.
• The COVID-19 outbreak is accelerating across Africa, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Matshidiso Moeti, WHO’s Africa regional director has said that the virus is spreading beyond capital cities and the lack of testing and other supplies was hampering any responses to the outbreak.
• Germany’s most populated state Gutersloh has been forced back into a strict lockdown following a COVID-19 outbreak at a local abattoir. North Rhine-Westphalia’s Gutersloh district has over 360,000 residents and on Wednesday 24th June, had its first full day back under lockdown.
• The head of the Test and Trace programme, Dido Harding, has been challenged over the risks of false negative coronavirus tests. At the Health Select Committee, Mr Harding was asked why people are not repeatedly tested after MPs heard that 20% of positive cases may be missed by the test. The high percentage of false negatives is likely to significantly hinder the UKs ability to ‘test and trace’.
GLOBAL MAP OF CASES OF COVID-19
Source: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 25.06.2020
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COVID-19 REPORT
UK UPDATE
For an interactive map of COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales click here.
• A major incident was declared in Bournemouth, Dorset, on Thursday 25th June where approximately 500,000 people have arrived daily over the past 2 days with some from as far afield as Birmingham. Local roads were gridlocked, 33 tonnes of rubbish were removed from the beach, and reports of fighting and anti-social behaviour was widely reported. Those descending on Bournemouth beach and other holiday hotspots across the country were criticised for not complying with social distancing measures and ignoring the advice of the government and Police.
• 22 Police officers were injured trying to break up an illegal street party in Brixton, London on Wednesday 24th June. The street party involved an estimated 400 people and Police were met with violence when they attempted to disperse the crowd. Police vehicles were smashed, and officers chased with many needing minor hospital treatment. Four people have so far been arrested for public order offences.
• It has been reported Royal Mail are to cut 2,000 jobs to help reduce costs in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. The
Post Office plans to save over £330million over the next 2 years.
• Air bridges will be available from next week to allow Britons to take holidays in other countries without quarantining for 14 days. The UK will allow people to travel to a limited number of countries, which may include Spain, France, and Greece.
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
307,980
TOTAL DEATHS 43,230
UK DAILY CASES 1,118
LIVE STATISTICS
UK WIDE – Public Health England SCOTLAND - Scottish Government
NORTHERN IRELAND: NISRA
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COVID-19 REPORT
• Liverpool fans gathered at Anfield to celebrate the clubs first Premier League title in 30 years ignoring social distancing rules. Within half an hour of the results on the 25th June roughly 2,000 fans had gathered outside of the clubs stadium. No attempts were made by Police on site to disperse the crowds, however, roads around Anfield were closed off at 11:00pm with Police advising motorists to avoid the area. Fans where urged earlier in the day to be ‘the best stay at home fans in the world’ to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.
• Police have been attacked while trying to disperse an illegal street party in Notting Hill. Metropolitan Police have said that objects were thrown at an “unlicensed music event” in Notting Hill in the early hours of Friday 26th June. A witness said that there were 150-200 people at the event with violence beginning to break out around midnight. Home Secretary Priti Patel said that the violence is “appalling” and that officers will receive full support when tackling criminality and enforcing social distancing rules.
• Health leaders are calling for an urgent review to determine whether the UK is properly prepared for the "real risk" of a second wave of COVID-19. In an open letter published in the British Medical Journal, minsters were warned that urgent action was needed to prevent further deaths. Presidents of the Royal College of Surgeons, Nursing, Physicians and GPs all signed the letter. The Department of Health have said that it will continue to be guided by scientific advice and will give the NHS “whatever it needs”.
• UK Doctors are pleading with holiday makers ahead of the tourism industry re-opening next week. Following a major incident being triggered at Bournemouth Beach on the 25th June, Doctors are pleading with holiday makers to practice social distancing. From the 4th July, hotels, bed and breakfasts, and campsite facilities will re-open to the public and an influx of visitors is expected.
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REGIONAL UPDATES
(Johns Hopkins University, 2020) (Worldometer, 24.06.2020)
*Above figures via Worldometer. Figures will vary between sources.
CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH DETAILS
CLICK HERE FOR LIVE REPORTED CASES
COUNTRIES/REGIONS 215
PATIENTS RECOVERED 5,250,087
TOTAL DEATHS 491,856
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
9,714,860
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ASIA
Japan Scientists are using the world’s newly crowned fastest supercomputer, named ‘Fugaku’, to simulate how virus droplets spread in a variety of environments. When fully operational next year, experts hope to employ the machine to narrow down the search for a vaccine. Such technology is possibly beneficial in the near-term in assisting health experts and authorities to contain and limit any future outbreaks of COVID-19, such as the one seen in Tokyo in recent days. On Wednesday 24th June, the capital reported 55 new cases, the highest figure for over a month, after a cluster of infections were identified at an office in the city.
RUSSIA Thousands gathered in Moscow on Wednesday 24th June for Russia’s Victory Day military parade, despite the city’s Mayor urging residents to stay at home and the fact that mass gatherings, technically remain banned. On the same day, Russia’s total COVID-19 cases tipped over 600,000 while an additional 7,176 infections were reported in the preceding 24 hours. Moscow was very much the epicentre of the country’s outbreak, where new infections continue to be consistently high. Elsewhere in the country, more than 20 similar parades and associated festivities were cancelled due to public health concerns, especially for elderly veterans. It is speculated that the parade in Moscow pushed ahead due to an upcoming nationwide vote on constitutional amendments that are expected to allow President Putin to remain in power beyond 2024, when his current term is due to expire.
AFRICA
Confirmed COVID-19 infections in Africa have surpassed 300,000, with around 8,700 deaths. The outbreak in the continent appears to be accelerating at pace. It took almost 100 days for Africa to record its first 100,000 COVID-19 cases, another 18 days for Africa to reach 200,000 cases, then a further 11 days to hit 300,000. Senior health officials have warned that Africa could be the next hotspot of this pandemic. With poorly equipped healthcare systems and extremely high population densities in dozens of cities, the effect of COVID-19 in Africa, as governments beginning to lift restrictions, is potentially devastating.
South Africa Africa’s first COVID-19 vaccine trial is due to commence in South Africa in the coming days. The vaccine has been developed at Oxford University, in the United Kingdom (UK), and is already undergoing assessment in both the UK and Brazil. The trial is due to begin as South Africa confirms over 100,000 cases of the virus, around a third of the total number of cases Africa-wide. The country’s nationwide lockdown has been eased significantly but ministers are concerned that the healthcare system could be overwhelmed in the coming weeks and months as temperatures drop over winter.
Nigeria In Nigeria, Police have freed over 600 workers at a food processing facility who had been imprisoned by their employer. The workers had been forced to remain at the facility for around 12 weeks as their employer sought to minimise the spread of COVID-19 amongst the workforces. Nigerian states continue to ease restrictions despite rising case numbers. Lagos, the country’s commercial hub, has moved quickly to restart economic activity. The federal government, however, has warned against easing restrictions too quickly.
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AMERICAS The Americas continue to bear the brunt of this pandemic. Three of the world’s top 10 worst-hit countries are located in North or South America and have a combined total of over 4 million cases – half the global tally. Indeed, a sharp rise of cases in Latin America in the second half of May has prompted the WHO to declare the Americas as the new epicentre of the pandemic – a status which it retains as of 26th June.
United States of America The United States remains the worst-affected nation by far in terms of both total COVID-19 cases and deaths, with over 2 million and 120,000 respectively, representing over a quarter of worldwide totals. Most states have begun to reopen and have allowed a return of social and economic activity as they move forward with their phased reopening plans. However, in recent days over half of all states have reported an increase in COVID-19 cases, with some, including Arizona and Texas, reporting record daily increases of infections. On 24th June, the COVID tracking project stated that the country had sustained its largest daily increase since the pandemic began.
EUROPE Germany German authorities in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia have re-imposed lockdown measures across two districts due to a recent surge in cases, marking the first time that such actions have been taken in the country since it began lifting nationwide restrictions last month. The recent spike in cases has been traced to a meatpacking plant and was described as “the biggest infection incident” in Germany by State Premier Armin Laschet. In the two districts now under lockdown, schools, bars, museums, gyms, and cinemas have been ordered shut while tougher social distancing measures are also in force, limiting social contact to one other person outside of peoples’ own households. Employees of the Tönnies plant have been placed under mandatory quarantine, with over 1,500 people testing positive for the virus. Despite the severity of the outbreak, overall Germany’s infection rate (R number) is low with 140 local authorities reporting no new cases in the past week.
France The Eiffel tower reopened on Thursday 25th June with strict social distancing and hygiene measures in place. Visitors can access the 324 meters high tower via the stairs only. Visitors are not permitted higher than the 2nd floor and anyone over the age of 11 must wear a mask.
MIDDLE EAST Iraq Similarly, Iraq has seen a rise in infections since the end of May, when restrictions began to be relaxed. Despite bordering Iran, Iraq initially fared well during the early months of this pandemic, only reporting around 4,000 cases up to the end of May. However, as of 24th June, the country had reported just shy of 35,000 cases, with between 1000-2200 new cases being confirmed each day in the past week. As a result of the recent surge, this week, masked workers scrambled to set up makeshift COVID-19 wards in Baghdad’s vast exhibition grounds as the country’s health system, decimated by years of conflict and under-investment, is overflowing with patients and is struggling to cope.
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IN OTHER NEWS India In the past week, dozens of lightning strikes have killed over 100 people across two states in northern India. The state of Bihar has reported 83 dead and another 20 injured. Whilst neighbouring state Uttar Pradesh have reported at least another 20 dead. Lightning strikes are common in India during the monsoon season. Rain and thunderstorms have also caused widespread damage to property and vegetation.
Niger Ten aid workers have been kidnapped in Sahel whilst distributing food in a village. The ‘Action and Impact Programme’, which they were working for at the time have said that armed men on motorbikes appeared in the village, stole two land-cruisers, and ordered the aid workers to follow them. Militants have stolen several aid agency vehicles which have then been used in attacks.
United States of America Exactly one month after the death of George Floyd, the US House of Representatives have passed a reform bill, although it is unlikely to become law given the partisan gridlock. The democratic bill would mean that Police officers are personally responsible for damages in lawsuits, ban no-knock warrants that are often used by Police during drug raids, and stop the flow of excess military equipment to Police departments. Three Republicans crossed party lines to vote in favour of the bill, however, state Republicans have refused to take up the house version and argues that it would undermine law enforcement. Both proposals from the Democrats and Republicans would impose restrictions on Police chokeholds, introduce new training procedures, increase the use of body cameras and create a national registry for officers who have been accused of misconduct.
Australia New South Wales politician Shaoquett Moselmane has been suspended from his party following reports his office is under investigation by national security agencies in regard to alleged links to China. Authorities raided his home and office, with media reporting that the raids involved possible allegations of Chinese Government interference. The Sydney Morning Herald, which were first to report the story, have said that investigations have been going on for a number of months, although no allegations have yet been proven. Tensions have been building between Canberra and Beijing since Australia called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19.
RUSSIA Russia has begun voting on constitutional reforms which could see President Putin serve another two terms in office. The vote was officially scheduled to start on the 1st of July, however, was brought forward after concerns for social distancing. Although President Putin has not officially said that he will run again in 2024, he has publicly stated that it is vital he has the option. The new constitution would limit a President’s rule to two six-year terms instead of two consecutive terms meaning President Putin could continue in office after 2024. Economic changes would also be implemented with the constitution including the minimum wage and adjusting the state pension in line with inflation. Mr Navalny, a member of the Russian opposition named the vote a “coup” and “violation of the constitution”
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INSIGHTS Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.
NEW COUNTER-TERRORISM LEGISLATION This month, new changes to counter-terrorism legislation marks what is being called the ‘largest overhaul of terrorist sentencing and monitoring in decades’. The counterterrorism and sentencing bill, which passed parliament on May 20th, states that terrorists are to face a minimum of 14 years in prison for serious offences, alongside tougher monitoring. The bill will see the end of early releases for terror offenders who receive Extended Determinate Sentences, where the maximum penalty was life, and force them to serve their whole term in jail. The bill will see the most serious terror offenders serving a minimum of 14 years imprisonment, and up to 25 years on licence. Additionally, it will allow for the courts to evaluate if any serious crime is terror related, which will eliminate the possibility of a serious terror offender being released automatically before the end of their sentence. The bill ensures at all terror offenders will serve a minimum of 12 months on licence as well as requiring adult offenders to take a polygraph test.
INDIA AND CHINA PEACE AGREEMENT India and china have agreed to peacefully resolve their border tensions in the Himalayas through diplomatic and military channels. In a statement on Sunday 21st June India’s foreign ministry said peace and tranquillity in the India-China border regions is essential for the overall development of bilateral relations. Since last month, thousands of soldiers have participated in a standoff in the region of Ladakh. The 20 Indian casualties seen at the border during the rise in tensions, has been the biggest death toll in relation to China since the two countries fought in 1962. Analysts have said that India does not have the economic and military strength to follow the U.S. and adopt an anti-China stance. Eurasia Group’s South Asia analyst, Akhil Bery, has said that an amicable resolution is likely as neither of the two sides want to see an escalation in tensions.
WHAT WOULD A SECOND COVID-19 SPIKE MEAN? Following the second COVID-19 wave seen in Germany this month, with the R rate jumping from 1.06 to 1.88 in a matter of days after a string of localised outbreaks, the fear of a second wave in the UK is prevalent. If the UK sees a second spike in the number of cases, we may have to regress back to stricter social distancing methods and potentially a second lockdown. Former Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, has warned that a second spike of the virus would see the UK enter another, longer lockdown. However, with the economy in an extremely fragile state, it is certain that a second lockdown would have a further, more devastating impact. Although it is mutually agreed that supressing the virus is beneficial both for lives and the economy, a fragile balance must be struck to ensure there is an economy left to re-open.
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TRAVELLING THROUGH THE NEW NORMAL Holidaymakers from the UK could enjoy a break in Western Europe this summer as the UK government looks to create ‘travel corridors’ eliminating the need to self-isolate upon return to the UK. Eligible countries include France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Finland - but not Portugal. Portugal is unlikely to be included in the list of eligible countries due to recent outbreaks in and around Lisbon. Additionally, Sweden is unlikely to be added to the ‘travel corridor’ as the infection rate is higher than the UK. Discussions are still ongoing regarding a ‘travel corridor with Australia’. Spain re-opened its borders this month, with the first Britons touching down in Malaga on the 21st June although the flight from Manchester was occupied mostly by Spaniards living in Britain and returning to see loved ones, which outnumbered holiday makers.
RE-ESTABLISHING THE COUNTY LINES As lockdown restrictions are lifted, the Police are preparing themselves for an outburst of violence on the streets as gangs and drug dealers attempt to re-establish territory, hierarchy and act on tensions that have accumulated during the lockdown period. Dr Simon Harding, Director of the National Centre for Gang Research at the University of West London, said “the trading of social media taunts and drug feuds” that have festered during the restrictions were likely to trigger an “explosive crime wave”. The number of children unable to attend school due to this pandemic has also presented as an opportunity for gangs to recruit new young members. The children's commissioner for England warned with schools and youth clubs closed, thousands of vulnerable young people had "simply gone off the radar". Additionally, Police have warned that the new norm of wearing a facemask in public allows criminals to evade detection. Dr Simon Harding, a former Home Office and Metropolitan Police adviser, said: “We’re going to have the backwash of everything that’s happened over the last two months. There’s a crime wave coming, a tsunami on the way”.
HOW HAS LOCKDOWN AFFECTED CRIME? With people staying at home, crime rates have seen dramatic changes all around the world from gang members in El Salvador enforcing social distancing, to the increase in cybercrimes. Police have said that in the UK crime has fallen by 28% since the beginning of lockdown. The drop-in crime rates seen in the weeks leading up to April 12th showed a 37% drop in burglary, a 27% drop in vehicle crime. Rape offences fell by 37% and shoplifting fell by 54% with the closure of non-essential stores. However, the rise seen in domestic violence has been described as pandemic in itself. It is thought that cases of domestic violence have risen by 20% since the lockdown began. In the first four weeks of lockdown it is believed that 13 women and 4 children have been killed by men in the UK, in most cases, in their own homes.
