21q2 uhero state forecast update

UHERO FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII

MAY 14, 2021

Sponsors Edition

Vaccinations and US strength

drive upgraded Hawaii forecast

UHERO FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII©2021 University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

All rights reserved.

Carl S. Bonham, Ph.D.Executive Director

Byron Gangnes, Ph.D. Senior Research Fellow

Peter Fuleky, Ph.D. Economist

Philip Garboden, Ph.D. Sociologist

Justin Tyndall, Ph.D. Economist

Rachel InafukuGraduate Research Assistant

India AlfordUndergraduate Research Assistant

Taylor Gabatino Undergraduate Research Assistant

Joshua Hu Undergraduate Research Assistant

Research assistance by:Victoria Ward

2424 Maile Way, Room 540 • Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 • (808) 956-2325 • [email protected]

i2021 Second Quarter — UHERO Hawaii Forecast | UHERO

Executive Summary

Economic conditions in Hawaii are improving. The dominant US visitor market has outperformed expectations, and built-up savings and pent-up demand will drive mainland arrivals to near-normal levels in coming months. International markets will be much slower to recover. Local employment gains have been limited so far, but the vaccine rollout in Hawaii and nationally sets the stage for broader economic reopening by this summer. Still, a full recovery will take several years to accomplish.

• More than half of the US adult population has now received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and full vaccination of an increasing share of the US population will support a robust recovery. An accumulation of savings during the pandemic and pent-up demand will fuel a boom in consumer spending. The US economy will expand by about 6% this year. Slower vaccine rollout elsewhere, especially in developing countries, will present a hurdle for global recovery.

• In April, the statewide number of daily visitors surpassed half of the pre-pandemic level, with all of the recovery taking place in the domestic market. In international markets, lagging vaccination rates, still large numbers of infections, and obstacles to overseas travel will keep the visitor numbers low. A near-term supply constraint is the availability of rental cars, while airlift and accommodations remain underutilized. Total visitor arrivals will climb to more than 70% of their pre-pandemic level by late summer.

• The recovery of jobs has trailed behind tourism. March payrolls were still more than a hundred thousand jobs below their pre-pandemic level. Despite this, firms report difficulty finding necessary labor, as the available labor force has been reduced by outmigration, ongoing virus concerns, and the need to supervise children until schools reopen. Vaccination progress will support an improvement of job gains. However, the payroll job count will not approach pre-pandemic levels for several years.

• An unprecedented level of federal spending has provided essential support for the Hawaii economy over the past year, and a substantial recovery impetus will come from massive additional support now in the pipeline. Direct aid to state and local governments will help to offset a significant fraction of budget shortfalls.

• The pandemic’s economic toll threatened many families with housing insecurity. Federal assistance to renters and homeowners has helped to limit the negative impacts. Rents, which fell in 2020, have turned upward in recent months, and home prices have continued to soar. Commercial real estate has suffered from weak demand.

• There remains a significant range of uncertainty around our baseline forecast path, although firming visitor numbers and progress in vaccination are beginning to narrow that range. Our optimistic scenario envisions even more buoyant US arrivals, driven by a stronger-than-expected US economic surge and early achievement of high vaccination rates. A broader upturn in spending facilitates a more rapid recovery of employment. In the pessimistic scenario, persistent surges of COVID-19 in developing economies adversely affect global production arrangements, harming US manufacturing and hindering global economic recovery. The revival of international travel is further delayed.

http://uhero.hawaii.edu

ii2021 Second Quarter — UHERO Hawaii Forecast | UHERO

Forecast Summary

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233

SSTTAATTEE OOFF HHAAWWAAIIIINonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 658.2 658.4 557.5 577.5 622.2 634.9

% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0

Unemployment Rate (%) 2.4 2.5 11.8 7.3 4.8 3.9

Real Personal Income (Mil 2020$) 80,964.2 81,994.8 85,445.5 84,945.5 81,575.9 83,039.3

% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 96,101.2 97,248.6 89,856.2 93,447.8 96,302.8 97,700.4

% Change 2.0 1.2 -7.6 4.0 3.1 1.5

Total Visitor Arrivals by Air (Thou) 9,888.8 10,385.8 2,716.2 6,406.8 8,800.0 9,148.6

% Change 5.2 5.0 -73.8 135.9 37.4 4.0

Visitor Days (Thou) 87,721.3 89,690.4 28,559.6 62,794.1 78,426.4 82,820.0

% Change 4.9 2.2 -68.2 119.9 24.9 5.6

Real Visitor Expenditures (Mil 2020$) 18,074.0 17,994.4 4,783.2 10,688.4 15,303.4 16,586.7

% Change 3.1 -0.4 -73.4 123.5 43.2 8.4

HHOONNOOLLUULLUU CCOOUUNNTTYYNonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 473.3 473.8 410.0 425.6 449.2 457.7

% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 3.8 5.5 1.9


Inflation Rate, Honolulu MSA (%) 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4


% Change 0.9 0.9 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9


% Change 3.2 5.0 -75.4 116.1 51.6 6.2

HHAAWWAAIIII CCOOUUNNTTYYNonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 70.9 70.9 60.5 63.9 68.1 69.2

% Change 0.4 -0.1 -14.7 5.7 6.5 1.7



% Change 2.0 1.5 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4

Total Visitor Arrivals by Air (Thou) 1,706.2 1,763.9 477.3 1,154.6 1,567.1 1,638.2

% Change -3.4 3.4 -72.9 141.9 35.7 4.5

MMAAUUII CCOOUUNNTTYYNonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 80.5 80.7 60.8 63.0 74.8 76.7

% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.6 3.6 18.7 2.5



% Change 1.5 3.1 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8


% Change 5.9 5.0 -72.8 174.8 27.7 2.4

KKAAUUAAII CCOOUUNNTTYYNonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 32.7 33.3 26.0 26.1 30.1 31.2

% Change -0.4 1.9 -21.8 0.2 15.3 3.9



% Change 3.5 2.3 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6

Total Visitor Arrivals by Air (Thou) 1,388.5 1,370.0 345.8 848.4 1,283.3 1,309.4

% Change 8.0 -1.3 -74.8 145.4 51.3 2.0

MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSBASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO, PUBLIC SUMMARY

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for county income for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts.


12021 Second Quarter — UHERO Hawaii Forecast | UHERO

Second Quarter Hawaii Forecast

Prospects for Hawaii’s recovery are now on a firmer footing. After the long COVID-19 winter, tourism is reemerging with the spring. Increasingly vaccinated and flush with cash, US travelers are arriving in greater numbers, even as the share of international visitors remains negligible. As the US and Hawaii achieve ever higher levels of vaccination this summer, recovering tourism and a reopening local economy will bring employees back to work in greater numbers. But the lingering international COVID-19 crisis and pandemic damage to local businesses, labor markets and government finances mean that a full economic recovery will take years to accomplish.

After last winter’s economic retreat to address the COVID-19 crisis, recovery began in many countries by late spring 2020. The recovery to date has been incomplete, but several large economies are set to accelerate in the coming months. Among advanced economies, the US is poised to lead all comers, and China, which controlled the virus early, will be the main growth pole in the developing world. But COVID-19 is far from over, and it will cast a long social and economic shadow for several years to come.

The US economy recovered about half of its shutdown-related losses last year, but gains slowed considerably in the second half because of renewed virus surges and distancing measures. With disease control much improved and large-scale vaccination underway, economic activity surged in the first quarter. And, despite weak April job numbers, prospects are for robust growth to continue. By late summer, the vast majority of US adults should be fully vaccinated (although vaccine reluctance poses a significant risk). The shutdown of spending and generous federal support have left households sitting on vastly more savings than before the pandemic. Their pent-up demand, coupled with the largest cumulative fiscal impetus since World War II, is already fueling a boom in consumer spending, which will propel the economy forward.

We expect the US economy to expand by about 6% this year. Robust growth will raise output above its previous peak by the second quarter of this year and onto or above its previous trend (full employment) path by the middle of next year.

US PERSONAL SAVINGFederal support and low

spending have led to a huge accumulation

of savings.

1

2

3

4

5

6

2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q3

Trillions of US $

Rebounding USleads mixed

global recovery



As the US recovery builds, some of the hardest-hit sectors will see the biggest gains. In particular, travel, tourism, and on-premises dining will come back strongly. Widespread vaccination will facilitate this, and these are also the areas where there may be the most pent-up demand. Notably, the support of state and local governments under the recent American Rescue Plan will halt further public sector job shedding and reduce the need for increased taxes or program cuts that would weigh on the overall recovery.

Unprecedented fiscal stimulus in an already recovering economy has raised concerns about potential overheating that could drive higher inflation. The Federal Reserve has countered that, despite economic improvement, persisting labor market weakness will require a sustained period of low interest rates and other financial market support. A new Fed policy regime adopted last year explicitly acknowledges that inflation should be allowed to rise above the 2% target during expansions in order to achieve satisfactory average rates of price increase over the long run.

Outside of the US, China will be the primary growth pole this year, having fully contained COVID-19 and benefiting from the strong recovery of global trade. The Chinese economy will post more than 8% growth this year. Global growth will expand by 6% for this year as a whole, and more than 4% in 2022, according to IMF estimates.

The uneven pace of vaccine rollout globally and the recent exponential surge of new cases in India present major concerns for the global economy. The problem is particularly acute in the developing world, where in some cases vaccination has yet to begin, largely because much of this year’s vaccine production has been tied up by rich countries. But continental Europe and Japan also lag badly, and the latter is among countries that have seen a COVID-19 resurgence recently. Vaccinating the world will take perhaps another two years, weighing on developing country recovery and also on some global production arrangements that are vital to advanced economies.

The number of visitors to the Islands has climbed impressively since the end of January. During the month of March, there were more than four hundred thousand visitors to Hawaii. In April, the daily average number of visitors deplaning in Hawaii stood at 15,800, more than half of the visitor

US mainland visitors returning

DAILY NUMBEROF DEPLANING

VISITORS (TRAILING7-DAY AVERAGE)

Visitor numbers have climbed impressively

since the end of January.

0

4

8

12

16

20K

Sep2020

Oct Nov Dec Jan2021

Feb Mar Apr May


https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021


count of April 2019. These gains are running considerably higher than the expectations we held at the time of our first-quarter forecast—in fact, above those underpinning our optimistic scenario from that time. Together with more upbeat US macroeconomic expectations, this leads us to revise upward our outlook for Hawaii tourism, as we will discuss below.

All of the recovery so far is in the domestic market, which currently accounts for more than 97% of all arriving visitors. There has been virtually no recovery yet of international arrivals, reflecting the slower reopening of major foreign market economies and direct or indirect restrictions on some international travel. (For example, in addition to test-based entry to Hawaii, passengers from Japan must complete a COVID-19 test and a 14-day quarantine upon their return home.) There has also been a slower pace of vaccination in many of these markets. While 45% of US residents had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by May 5, that proportion stood at 35% in Canada and only 2% in Japan! Both countries have also seen a sharp upswing in new COVID-19 cases over the past two months, resulting in renewed restrictive measures.

Needless to say, the pace at which vaccinations are ramped up in major international markets will be central to the pace of their reentry into the Hawaii market. Also important will be the rate at which existing barriers to travel are reduced. On the Hawaii side of things, the State appears ready to move forward fairly soon with vaccine passports for travelers, which in the near term will primarily benefit the US market. International markets are expected to continue to lag the US in vaccination, and historically these visitors have also been more reticent about returning to travel following health-related disruptions like the SARS episode. As a result, we expect Hawaii’s tourism recovery to continue to be driven by the US market this year, with international market recovery a longer slog.

Another factor that will weigh on tourism this year is a shortage of available rental cars. Last year, rental car companies laid off workers and sold inventory to cover losses due to the pandemic and decline in travel. During the 2020 fiscal year, which ended in July, Hawaii’s car rental supply decreased by about 10,000 units, or nearly a quarter. With Hawaii averaging nearly 16,000 deplaning visitors per day, rental vehicle prices have surged to hundreds of dollars per day in some cases.

SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE RECEIVED AT

LEAST ONE COVID-19 VACCINE DOSE

Only 2% of the Japanese population has

received a vaccine shot.

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Dec2020

Jan2021

Feb Mar Apr May

US

Canada

Japan



Hotels have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and their recovery will take time. In the first quarter of 2021, the inventory of available hotel rooms and transient vacation rentals (TVRs) was 7% and 25% lower, respectively, than the year before. But in these early stages of tourism return, TVRs on the market appear to have fared somewhat better than hotels, likely because of visitors’ preference for social distancing, and perhaps because scaled-back services have made hotels less attractive than normal. In March, reported occupancy for TVRs stood at 62%, compared with 43% for hotels. With so many hotel and TVR units transitioning from shuttered to active listings, occupancy rates—like so many other economic statistics—should be taken with a grain of salt. In any case, visitor recovery this year will lead to significantly higher hotel occupancy rates and room rates in coming months.

As the demand for travel accommodation returns, so will concerns regarding transient vacation rentals. With neighborhoods continuing to oppose TVR operations, Honolulu’s Department of Planning and Permitting is weighing stricter enforcement of vacation rental rules, changes to the permit lottery system, and a rule requiring a 1,000 foot separation between rentals. In addition, last fall the city reached an agreement with Expedia and AirBnb that could make it easier to enforce existing regulations. The platforms agreed to a similar arrangement with the County of Kauai last summer. At this time, Maui and Hawaii County do not have explicit agreements with the marketing platforms, but both require permits for operating a TVR outside an approved zone. There remain substantial barriers to enforcing TVR regulations, evident from even a cursory review of online advertisements. In particular, many TVR owners appear to be trying to circumvent the rules by offering their properties for a minimum stay of 30 days, even though it seems likely that actual stays are often much shorter.

Woes for hotels and TVRs

ACTIVE TVR LISTINGS, MARCH 2021

Nearly three-quarters of transient vacation

rentals are outsideresort zones.

Source: Transparent via Hawaii Tourism Authority

Active TVR listings

Inside Resort Zones Outside Resort Zones



Effective enforcement of TVR regulations and memoranda could be an important tool to manage the return of tourism. Data on 7,400 active TVR listings on Oahu in March indicates that 74% of listings were for properties located outside of areas zoned for resorts. The figure was even higher before the pandemic, when 82% of TVRs operated outside of resort zones in March 2019. Limiting or removing TVRs from non-resort neighborhoods could substantially reduce visitor accommodation capacity and the overall pressure of high visitor numbers on Island communities.

The recovery of employment has been markedly slower than the nascent tourism upturn. After a modest increase last summer, Hawaii’s payroll job base declined again in the fall. Modest gains since then still left March payroll employment 112 thousand jobs below the pre-pandemic level. However, we have now seen six consecutive months of job gains, and the anticipated tourism surge and local reopening promise stronger employment recovery going forward.

An acceleration of job gains will be supported by continuing progress in vaccination of the local population. If recent rates of vaccination were to continue, 75% of Hawaii residents could be fully vaccinated by early July. (See the UHERO Blog, “COVID-19 infections, vaccines, and economic recovery”.) A growing concern, however, is a potential decline in the pace of vaccination. While recent volatility makes Hawaii data hard to read, at the national level the rate of vaccinations has fallen by roughly 40% in recent weeks due to vaccine reluctance and harder-to-reach populations. A similar decline in Hawaii would push back attainment of the 75% level by more than a month. Despite this risk, continuing progress in vaccinating Hawaii residents will permit a return to social and economic conditions much more normal than we have experienced over the past year.

High-frequency economic indicators are increasingly pointing to a more widespread recovery. The UHERO Economic Pulse, an index summarizing movements in a number of indicators of current economic conditions, is now at or near its highest level since the pandemic began. As the economy reopens both to tourism and to local activity, job gains will become more noteworthy. Encouragingly, some of the hardest hit areas, such as accommodations, food service, and retail are beginning to see employment gains, but they will remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels for some time.

Job recovery has far to go

PROJECTED SHAREOF POPULATION

FULLY VACCINATEDA falloff in vaccine

demand woulddelay achieving

widespread vaccination.

8k/day

15k/day(vaccinationrate on 5/1)

0

25

50

75

100%

Jan2021

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


https://data.uhero.hawaii.edu/#/series?id=396545&start=2021-01-20&end=2021-07-31

https://uhero.hawaii.edu/covid-19-infections-vaccines-and-economic-recovery/


An unprecedented level of federal spending has provided essential support for the Hawaii economy over the past year, and a substantial recovery impetus will come from massive additional support now in the pipeline. Since the time of our last report, Congress has enacted the nearly $2 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP). Hawaii is expected to receive upwards of $6 billion over the next year, including direct payments and tax credits for households and allotments for COVID-19 relief, businesses, education, and rent relief.

The ARP also provides direct aid to state and local governments, which will help to offset a significant fraction of budget shortfalls. Prior to the Act's passage, the State of Hawaii anticipated a budget deficit of more than $2 billion, and consequently a need to impose twice-a-month furloughs beginning in July on thousands of State workers. However, with $1.6 billion in direct aid allocated to the State, the Legislature was able to restore planned cuts in some areas. Governor Ige has indicated that furloughs and layoffs of State workers will no longer be needed, although subsequent cuts to some Department budgets—including the University of Hawaii—will pose risks.

Each county government will receive direct federal aid as well, with the City and County of Honolulu set to receive the largest allotment of $395 million. Prior to the passage of the ARP, Mayor Blangiardi proposed a plan that would hold Honolulu County’s operating budget steady at $2.9 billion through a number of spending cuts. These included a hiring freeze for roughly 2,000 vacant positions, a $400 million decrease in capital spending, and deferral of health-fund contributions that would save nearly $140 million. The Honolulu City Council is hopeful that federal aid will be able to offset proposed cuts in the budget, and permit the City and County to address flood relief and stormwater mitigation, hire additional workers in the Department of Planning and Permitting to expedite construction projects, and increase investment in affordable housing. Rent relief provisions in the ARP have also allowed counties to launch a number of rental and utility relief programs, which have provided significant support to struggling families. (See the box, Rental and Homeowner Assistance Provides Critical Relief.)

Government continues

unprecedented support

HAWAII NONFARM PAYROLL JOBS

Employment has recovered less than a

third of pandemic losses.

500

550

600

650

700K

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



Rental and Homeowner Assistance Provides Critical ReliefOne of the most urgent concerns during the pandemic has been the preservation of housing stability, primarily for “ALICE” families whose jobs were among the most vulnerable. (The term ALICE has been used to describe families that are Asset Limited, Income Constrained, and Employed.) The federal and state eviction moratoria were designed to achieve the epidemiological goal of avoiding involuntary moves and potential overcrowding, but were insufficient on their own to deal with the financial ramifications of the crisis. Even if they could not be evicted, unemployed tenants continued to accrue rent arrears, while their landlords struggled in the face of increasing nonpayment. Similarly, federal limits on foreclosure have kept lower income homeowners in their properties, but did not resolve core issues related to increased payment delinquencies.

For both renters and homeowners the level of non-payments has remained fairly stable over time, improving slightly over the past few months. Mortgage delinquencies peaked in June at just over 10%, compared with a baseline of roughly 3.5%. As the Hawaii economy has improved, the delinquency rate has begun to decline, but only to 9% so far. It is much more difficult to estimate rental arrears, particularly given the very limited reach of the US Census surveys. The most plausible figure, looking at all the Census data points, has been 14% (which also aligns well with two UHERO surveys of rental property owners).

Data limitations aside, there is no doubt that there has been a durable increase in housing issues in Hawaii due to the pandemic. In the short term, these challenges threaten the well-being of local families. In the long term, they represent barriers to the preservation of our lower cost housing stock.

To address these issues, rent relief funding has been authorized through each of the large federal stimulus packages (CARES, CAA , and ARP). The State’s Rent Relief and Housing Assistance Program distributed $59 million of CARES funds to roughly 13,600 households in only a few months, primarily as direct rent support. This program was complemented with a series of county programs that distributed portions of the CARES funding allocated directly to the counties.

After the expiration of the CARES program at the end of last year, there was roughly a three month gap in large-scale rental assistance while federal and state agencies worked out distribution of the additional $200 million in rent assistance authorized by Congress in December. To avoid the challenges of overlapping programs, the State decided to have the counties administer the program (in the case of Honolulu and Hawaii, these funds were combined with direct support). This second wave of rent assistance will eventually be supplemented with an additional $152 million for rent and utility assistance, as part of the recently-adopted American Rescue Plan (ARP). Unlike CARES, the two recent programs have less of a tight timeline: the last of the monies need to be spent by 2025.

These additional funds will have a significant stabilizing impact on the rental housing market during the ongoing recovery period. After accounting for administrative costs, the State has funding for roughly 200,000 months of housing support for the impacted population at the prevailing median rent. This is a substantial pool of funding, but it is faced with even larger needs. When the Honolulu program launched several weeks ago, it received more than 8,000 applications in a matter of hours. Similarly, the Census rent delinquency figures suggest that more than 20,000 renter households fall behind on their rent each month, and an unmeasured number more are paying on time but struggling to do so. When back rent is added to this picture, the existing funding would last less than a year at current demand. It is likely that improving economic conditions will gradually reduce the need for support, allowing the funding to stretch significantly longer. But a large number of families will require durable housing assistance for some time to come. The financial support will benefit landlords as well, who can use these programs to ensure some measure of economic stability during an uncertain period.

The ARP also includes roughly $50 million for homeowners, a funding stream that has been absent in the earlier measures. While homeowners with federally backed loans

SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BEHIND ON RENT OR MORTGAGE

0

3

6

9

12

15

18%

Jul2020

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2021

Feb


https://data.uhero.hawaii.edu/high-frequency-dashboard/#/?cat=MortgagePayments

https://uhero.hawaii.edu/november-rental-market-troubling-signs-remain-as-state-prepares-for-an-uncertain-2021/


remain largely protected from foreclosure, anecdotal evidence suggests that many have been struggling (particularly those living in subsidized housing or on Hawaiian Homelands). The details of this modest homeowner program are still being determined, but it should be available to help stabilize the more vulnerable homeowners.

Put together, the three major stimulus bills have provided critical relief for renters and homeowners in Hawaii. There have certainly been implementation hurdles, but ultimately the support packages have succeeded during the crisis in limiting forced moves and the overcrowded living situations that might have resulted. They should also help to keep many landlords above water and tenants out of crippling debt as the economy struggles back to full recovery. While it remains tempting for owners of single-family rentals to sell into the currently hyper-charged homeownership market, the rent relief programs will hopefully diminish the attractiveness of such conversions, as well.

—Philip Garboden

The effect of the extensive federal support programs was to substantially raise overall income levels in Hawaii, compared with what they would have been otherwise and even their levels in normal times. Transfer payment receipts more than doubled in the second quarter of last year and remained 40% above year-earlier levels in the fourth quarter. This was sufficient to raise total real personal income more than 8% above 2019 levels mid-year, even as labor income languished. As federal support programs waned late in the year, personal income fell back and posted a small net loss in the fourth quarter. Still, for the year overall, Hawaii residents’ income from all sources was 4% higher than in 2019, demonstrating the powerful role that federal fiscal support has played in maintaining living standards during the pandemic. Recent rounds of federal spending are carrying this support into the current year.

In our last report we discussed diverging trends in the housing market, with single-family home prices rising and rents falling. However, by the end of the first quarter it became clear that the rental market has also turned the corner. Across all units advertised on Craigslist, the median asking rent statewide rose from $1,600 to $1,750 during the first four months of the year. The increase may partly be the result of rising local demand among renters due to federal income supports and a marginally-improved labor market. The timing also corresponds with the resurgence in transient vacation rentals. The long-term and short-term rental markets are connected, and landlords may be shifting properties back into the transient vacation rental pool after a short stay in the long-term rental market.

Rents rebound as home prices soar

CRAIGSLIST MEDIAN MONTHLY RENTAL

ASKING PRICEThe rental market also

turned the corner.

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

$1,850

Oct2019

Dec Feb2020

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb2021

Apr



Federal support for renting and home-owning families has likely also supported housing markets. Mortgage delinquencies are now beginning to decline. The share of mortgages in Hawai’i that are not current with payments fell to 8.9% in February from a high of 10.5%. The combination of an improving economy, generous federal stimulus, and rising home values should all contribute to a continuing decline in mortgage arrears.

The appreciation of single-family home prices has continued to accelerate. During the first quarter of 2021 the median sale price of a single-family home on Oahu was 17% higher than a year earlier. Rising prices have been driven at least in part by limited inventory. The number of active single-family home listings in March was nearly 40% lower than in the previous year. Neighbor Islands have experienced similar increases. While the US market as a whole has also undergone continued price appreciation, the recent increase in Hawaii has been significantly larger.

Commercial real estate was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, as demand for commercial space fell far short of supply. The combination of business closures and a shift to remote work led to an increase in office vacancies, in the fourth quarter up nearly two percentage points from a year earlier. The retail market also faced a challenging year. A national survey from Colliers International found that nearly 70% of consumers reported avoiding malls last year due to health concerns. Hawaii’s retailers also lost customers because of the lack of visitors in the Islands. By December, statewide excise tax collections on retailing were 13% below their 2019 level, and as of March there were still about 12,000 fewer retail jobs in Hawaii than in March 2019. Oahu ended 2020 with a retail vacancy rate of 6.4%, up more than a percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in vacancy rates among both office and retail spaces will likely limit any new construction of commercial real estate properties in the near future.

While progress and prospects for economic recovery have improved considerably in the past few months, there remain several factors that will weigh on the economy. Above, we discussed the rental car shortage that has resulted from pandemic-related downsizing of rental car fleets, and there may also be lags in full restoration of hotel and other visitor services. For the Hawaii economy overall, labor shortages may pose the most daunting impediment to recovery.

From labor glutto shortage

HONOLULU MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY HOME

PRICE VS 20 CITY CASE-SHILLER INDEX, JANUARY 2000 = 100

Honolulu home prices continue to soar.

Case-Shiller

Honolulu

150

170

190

210

230

250

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

$950K

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



Although the state is still experiencing relatively high levels of unemployment, there is ample anecdotal evidence that Hawaii’s employers are having substantial difficulty hiring new staff. In fact, labor shortages are becoming a common problem in many industries nationwide as the recovery advances. One suspected culprit, the greatly expanded unemployment benefits, has not been found to significantly discourage employment, at least during the initial stages of the pandemic. Instead, the benefits supported the demand for labor by propping up household spending. Several other factors appear more likely to explain the hiring challenges that employers are facing.

Over the past year, the pandemic has precipitated a departure of about sixteen thousand workers from the Hawaii labor force. One contributor to the declining labor force is the outmigration of workers. The US Census Bureau’s intercensal estimates indicate that Hawaii’s population fell by nearly nine thousand persons last year. Although the state’s population has been falling since 2017, the pace of decline doubled in 2020. (State population counts by the 2020 census were released on April 1, but revised estimates for intercensal years will not be released until 2022.) It is likely that the precipitous job losses and high cost of living in Hawaii have incentivized some unemployed workers without strong family ties in the islands to relocate.

Closed schools are also a problem, preventing the return of some parents to the workforce. In the hard-hit service sector, the economic contraction exacted a heavy toll on employment, and this is also where there are now the biggest apparent labor shortages. This is not surprising given the preponderance of women in these occupations. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2019 58% of workers in service occupations were female. A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 5% of working mothers with children under 18 cited school closures as one of the reasons they quit their job during the pandemic, and the National Women’s Law Center noted that the exodus of women from the workforce brought female labor force participation to levels not seen since the late 1980’s. With many schools closed for in-person classes and the summer break on the horizon, the unavailability and expense of childcare continues to create a barrier to the return to work for many women.

The pandemic has also prompted a surge of people starting their own businesses. After falling at the start of the pandemic, business applications in Hawaii surged during the summer of last year, and during the first quarter of 2021 they were running 30% higher than the 2019 average. At the national level, US Census Bureau data show that the number of business applications

HAWAII LABOR FORCERecovery will require

getting workers back into the labor force.

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700K

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020



increased from 3.5 million in 2019 to 4.3 million in 2020, the biggest jump on record. It is possible that the uptick in entrepreneurship in Hawaii mirrors trends seen at the national level and is driven by former employees in the accommodation and food services industry. In the first three months of this year, the US saw nearly 30,000 more business applications in that sector compared with 2019. Data from Yelp shows that food delivery services have seen the largest increase in new business formation.

Other factors that may hinder labor force participation include changing health status of the unemployed population, increased substance abuse, stress and other social issues, including the need to care for adult or aging family members. Finally, some workers may be afraid to return to jobs that require interaction with a large number of people on a day-to-day basis, especially if they or their families have not yet been vaccinated.

While the deep pandemic downturn affected all Hawaii communities, county-level experiences have not been uniform. Due to their larger dependence on the tourism industry, with about 30% of their job base in accommodation and food services, Kauai and Maui counties saw the greatest economic decline. At the trough of last year’s COVID-19 recession, unemployment rates reached nearly 35% in Kauai and Maui Counties, compared with 20% in Honolulu and Hawaii Counties.

The counties have also varied in the extent of their recovery. In part this reflects the differing paths they have traveled as they balanced COVID-19 control and economic considerations. Although opening up Hawaii’s economy to travelers has been a key part of restarting the economy, in December Kauai chose to opt out of Hawaii’s Safe Travels program to limit the spread of COVID-19 within the county. The decision had a significant adverse impact on Kauai’s tourism industry. Before it re-joined the program in early April, the Garden Isle saw fewer than 24,000 visitors in the first quarter, only about 7% of its level in the fourth quarter of 2019. In contrast, Maui and Hawaii counties saw 42% and 35% of their pre-pandemic visitor arrivals, respectively. (Maui, which has seen the biggest jump in COVID-19 cases this year, has begun requiring a post-arrival test with an exemption for fully vaccinated trans-Pacific travelers.) Differences in visitor market mix also

Not all counties are created equal

COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

Employment lags in more tourism-dependent

economies.

0

10

20

30

40%

Jan2020

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan2021

Mar

HawaiiHonolulu

KauaiMaui



matter: Oahu, with its relatively higher reliance on international markets, had recovered just 25% of its pre-pandemic visitor numbers in the first quarter. The anticipated delay in the recovery of international visitor markets will continue to weigh on Oahu’s tourism recovery.

The four counties have differed as well in their vaccination progress and the pace at which vaccination has been extended beyond the highest-risk groups. Honolulu County remained in Phase 1C through mid-April, while all Neighbor Islands were in Phase 2, which allows anyone over the age of 16 to be vaccinated. Honolulu joined the other counties in universal adult access on April 19, in accordance with the President’s national mandate.

In addition to the economic destruction brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, once again Hawaii was hit by torrential downpours, causing severe flooding and prompting Governor Ige to declare a state of emergency. Businesses at the entrance of Haleiwa town suffered thousands of dollars in damage as water levels reached as high as three feet, and Oahu’s windward side was also hit by destructive flooding. On the Garden Isle, heavy rains caused a large landslide that covered a section of Kuhio highway, completely cutting off passage to the island’s north shore. Officials estimate it could take three months to clear the highway.

Reflecting varying COVID-19 progress, industry makeup, and other local factors, the extent of overall economic recovery that each county has seen differs. While rates of unemployment have fallen roughly by half in all counties, they remain particularly high in the tourism-dependent Maui and Kauai economies. As the recovery grows in strength and the US market rebounds strongly, unemployment will continue to decline, but tempered by the entry of some discouraged workers back into the labor force.

SCHEDULED AIRLINE SEATS, INDEX,

FEBRUARY 2020 = 1Airline schedules are

rebounding asdemand returns.

Hawaii

Honolulu

Kauai

Maui

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Feb2020


THE HAWAII OUTLOOK

The substantial progress that has already been made in the vaccine rollout in Hawaii and nationally sets the stage for broad economic reopening by early summer, even if we experience pockets of COVID-19 surge. What at the start of the year was a hoped-for visitor pickup is now an actual one. The dominant US market is outperforming expectations, and built-up savings and



pent-up demand will drive mainland visitors to near-normal levels in coming months. Our own measures of Hawaii economic conditions confirm recent progress. The UHERO Economic Pulse, an aggregate index that reflects 19 separate measures of pandemic and economic activity, has steadily gained ground, recently hovering near its highest level since the pandemic began. If the end is not in sight, it is beginning to take shape out there in the distance.

However, there remain areas of marked weakness and unfinished business that pose unusual levels of uncertainty about just how strongly and rapidly recovery will proceed. If US vaccination progress has been substantial, major international visitor markets—particularly Japan and Canada—lag behind, and they have seen recent surges in virus numbers. Combined with home-country restrictions on returning travelers, this has prevented any revival of international visitors. Locally, the employment recovery remains in its infancy. While there is every reason to expect improvement as economic recovery advances, there is some risk that the employment rebound will remain sub-par, held back by lagging international visitor spending, failed firms, and a slow return of displaced workers to the labor force. A failure to dramatically reduce the spread of COVID-19 because of vaccine reluctance or the emergence of new and more contagious or resistant strains could cause a much longer delay in getting the state back on its feet.

Because of the continuing unusual degree of uncertainty, in this report we follow our recent practice of presenting a baseline forecast as well as optimistic and pessimistic alternative scenarios:

• Our baseline path is consistent with a continuation of progress toward a high level of vaccination in the US and Hawaii by this summer. That will permit continued recovery of mainland tourism and a broad reopening of the local economy. Rates of vaccination will continue to lag in our major international visitor markets, extending the period of low international arrivals until later this year.

• The optimistic scenario envisions even more buoyant US arrivals, driven by a stronger-than-expected US economic surge. A substantial acceleration of the pace of vaccinations in major overseas markets permits a more rapid return of international arrivals. Passage of additional federal spending measures further supports US and local spending, facilitating a more rapid recovery of employment.

UHEROECONOMIC PULSE

The UHERO Economic Pulse has steadily

gained ground.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Feb2020


Apr


https://data.uhero.hawaii.edu/#/series?sa=false&geo=HI&freq=W&id=392034&data_list_id=9910


• The pessimistic scenario envisions a longer delay in reaching widespread vaccination in the US, with even further delays in major international markets, keeping a lid on the pace of visitor industry gains. Rampant COVID-19 surges in developing economies adversely affect global production arrangements, hampering US manufacturing and casting a general pall over global economic recovery. Locally, damage from the pandemic shutdown proves more persistent, with a slower restart of many service businesses.

The differing assumptions about vaccination progress, COVID-19 control, and recovery from macroeconomic damage imply different recovery paths for tourism, the locally-oriented economy, and overall macroeconomic conditions.

As we noted above, visitor arrivals this year have been stronger than we anticipated in our first-quarter report, in April averaging more than half the 2019 level. The strong performance has been entirely driven by US arrivals, with international markets making up less than 3% of all arrivals. The rapidly rising demand from the US mainland, along with buoyant expectations for the summer season, has led to the restoration of airline schedules slashed during the pandemic, as well as the addition of some new routes. Hawaiian Airlines has added four new direct flights, including a long-distance route from Orlando, Florida. At the time of this writing, the domestic air seats outlook for June actually exceeds the 2019 level. Despite the absence of international travelers so far this year, the airlines’ June outlook is optimistic, with scheduled seats on international routes running 50% of their pre-pandemic level.

Our baseline visitor industry forecast sees travel and tourism continuing to build on recent gains, recovering more than 70% of pandemic losses by late summer. Compared with our previous forecast, US arrivals will play a relatively larger part in the near-term rebound, with slower recovery of international markets. Steady progress in vaccinations in the US will support the ability and willingness to travel. Our forecast now sees a nearly complete recovery of the US market by the year’s second half: US Arrivals will approach 100% of their pre-pandemic level by late summer. This is consistent with current data on US visitor advance bookings for the fourth quarter, which

A buoyant US market will drive tourism recovery

REAL VISITOR SPENDINGThe outlook for visitor

recovery has improved further since our

last report.

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20 Billions of 2020 $

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

20Q4 Forecast

21Q1 Forecast

21Q2 Forecast



actually exceed 2019 levels. The resurgence of US visitors, many flush with cash after more than a year without travel, will drive a significant rebound in visitor spending, although tempered by the dearth of traditionally high-spending Asian visitors.

Slower rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations abroad and resurgent case numbers in some countries will pose a significant deterrent to international travel. For example, despite new preclearance programs introduced by Hawaiian Airlines and Japan Airlines to permit visitors from Japan and Korea to bypass Hawaii’s ten-day quarantine, Japanese travelers must self-quarantine for 14 days upon their return, including avoiding the use of public transport. Canadian visitors must also quarantine for 14 days upon returning home, beginning with a mandatory three-day stay in a quarantine hotel when first arriving. These represent significant barriers to Hawaii travel from our two dominant international markets. As a result, the improvement in international arrivals will not begin in earnest until the year’s second half, and these visitors will reach only half their pre-pandemic level by the end of the year. Correspondingly, the recovery on Oahu and the Big Island, which typically host a greater number of international visitors, will proceed at a slower pace than on Maui. Kauai’s recovery is perking up now that the county has eliminated its COVID-19 quarantine requirement.

Additional increments to tourism recovery will be slower as we move beyond this year, reflecting still-struggling overseas markets, lingering economic hardship for some families, and the loss of some tourism infrastructure due to small-business failures and the barriers to the reentry of transient vacation rentals that we have discussed above. After recovering to about 70% by late summer, statewide hotel occupancy rates will see more gradual improvement, rising to just over 75% by 2024, compared with a statewide average of about 80% prior to the pandemic. Inflation-adjusted visitor spending will remain about a fifth lower than 2019 levels at the end of 2021, and it will not approach pre-pandemic levels until 2024.

There remains a significant range of uncertainty around our baseline forecast path, although progress in vaccinating populations and the tourism improvements we have already seen are beginning to narrow that range. Our optimistic scenario acknowledges the possibility that successful suppression of the virus and its variants and a faster rise in vaccination rates could bring back visitors more rapidly than anticipated. There could also be a more significant surge in spending by consumers and businesses stemming from the extensive fiscal support measures, healthy balance sheets, and pent-up demand. The Biden administration has now secured enough doses from Pfizer and Moderna to fully vaccinate the adult population in the US by the end of the summer. A high US vaccination rate could result in something approaching herd immunity as soon as early summer. More importantly, vaccine availability will improve abroad, and if that happens more rapidly than expected, this would allow the early removal of national quarantine restrictions and provide the traveler confidence needed to drive more rapid recovery in international markets. In our optimistic scenario, visitor arrivals recover nearly three-quarters of their pandemic losses by the third quarter of this year and continue to expand thereafter. However, even in this case, we would not begin to approach 2017 visitor numbers until 2022.

It is still easy to imagine a worse outcome. New strains of the virus have emerged around the world, and they are now also widespread in the

International markets are the

main tourism uncertainty



US. While the limited available evidence suggests that existing vaccines are effective against known variants, some are more transmissible, and new mutations will occur. The current traumatic surge in cases in India demonstrates how rapidly the situation could worsen in important developing economies. If the suppression of the virus proves to be more difficult than anticipated, the pace of the tourism recovery could slow significantly. In our pessimistic scenario, the number of visitors stagnates at current levels through early summer, with restrained gains thereafter. Absent success in passing the large proposed additional federal spending measures, federal support might then fall off at just the wrong time, reducing demand as we move into 2023. This would constrain the broader US and global economies and reduce prospects for a sustained visitor industry recovery.

We have noted above that Hawaii’s payroll employment remains depressed, with only a quarter of lost jobs recovered since the depth of the pandemic downturn. Our baseline forecast sees an acceleration of employment gains in coming months, as a larger share of the population gets fully vaccinated and increasingly contributes to both higher demand for services and broader labor force participation. Government support has helped to bridge the most difficult period, during which many individuals temporarily left the labor force. Now, with a continuing improvement in activity and reduction in virus-related constraints, broad economic recovery will gain momentum and spread more widely.

By the fourth quarter of this year, the nonfarm job count will rise to about 607 thousand, up from an average of 515 thousand jobs in the second quarter of last year. Job recovery will remain incomplete, and the unemployment rate will remain near 6% in Honolulu County at year’s end. The Neighbor Islands will see slightly higher unemployment rates in the 6-7% range, since a relatively larger fraction of their economies is tied to the visitor industry. The improvement in unemployment will somewhat understate the extent of labor market improvement, since there will also be a return to the labor force of some workers who had given up looking for jobs during the worst part of the pandemic period. Still, at year end, labor markets will remain much weaker than they were before the onset of COVID-19 early last year.

The labor market will continue to improve over the next several years, but that process will be gradual, reflecting a lengthy period of tourism recovery, business reopenings, and the return of workers who were sidelined during the pandemic. The job base will rise 3.6% for this year as a whole, and late-

UNEMPLOYMENT RATELabor market gains are

delayed in the pessimistic scenario.

PessimisticBase

Optimistic

0

2

4

6

8

10

12%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Better, but still incomplete,

job recovery



year strength will drive a nearly 8% rise in 2022. The payroll job count will have returned to within 5% of its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022. The array of federal fiscal support measures approved in recent months will drive another year of strong income, before the phase-out of these programs produces a significant fall-back of income in 2022.

In our optimistic scenario, the broader and more rapid tourism rebound and improved environment for local firms would result in a steeper recovery of Hawaii’s economy. In this case, we anticipate the number of visitors would climb above 9 million by 2022, more than 90% of their pre-pandemic level, and payroll jobs would recover within 4% of their pre-crisis level, with tourism-centered businesses being notably better off than under the baseline. Payroll jobs would grow more than 5% in 2021 and another 8% in 2022. The unemployment rate would fall below 4% by 2022.

Our pessimistic scenario describes a weaker near-term path for the overall economy and slower recovery thereafter. In addition to the restrained gains in tourism that we have described above, spending by the local population would be hampered by the delayed reopening and more widespread failure of businesses shuttered during the pandemic, both tourism-related companies and other local services. Concerns about the spread of new variants would also dampen consumer spending. The aggregate effect would be persistently weak employment and income, with unemployment remaining above 5% through 2023. The total number of payroll jobs would not reclaim even their 2015 level until 2025. The lengthy period of persistent weakness would impose considerable additional pain on local households and businesses.

Steady progress in vaccine rollout in the US and Hawaii sets the stage for a strengthening recovery. This is already evident in US visitor numbers that, while still far below last year, have surged over the past three months. As vaccination rates rise further, tourism recovery will make further inroads, and local demand will increasingly fuel an employment upturn. But a complete recovery will not be accomplished this year. Stubborn COVID-19 numbers abroad and glacial vaccination progress in some countries will delay the start of significant international visitor recovery until the year’s second half, and it will take time for a return of pandemic-shuttered or failed businesses in Hawaii, as well as the return of workers who left the labor force to deal with pandemic challenges. Full recovery will be a multi-year process.

Local upsideand downside

risks remain

REAL PERSONAL INCOME

Income will fall back once federal support ends.

Base

Optimistic

Pessimistic

70

74

78

82

86

90 Bil. of 2020$

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

On firmer footing



As US vaccination rates have climbed and mainland arrivals moved markedly upward, the uncertainty surrounding our forecast has begun to narrow. To be sure, substantial risks remain, demonstrated by the tragic surge of cases in India that makes it painfully clear that full COVID-19 control may be years away. In the US, periodic regional virus flare-ups may become the norm, even after the pandemic is effectively under control. Closer to home, it is not clear how fast labor markets will return to normal. Still, uncertainty surrounding our forecasts is expected to decline as Hawaii’s recovery proceeds in coming months. Barring unexpected developments, by the time of our next report it is likely that we will be able to return to our traditional practice of providing a single forecast path, without alternative scenarios.

What a full tourism recovery looks like has yet to be seen. It is not beyond the control of Hawaii residents. For many kamaaina, longstanding concerns about “over-tourism” were brought home dramatically by the wide open spaces and easy access available to residents during the pandemic. A shift in marketing practices may help to encourage a better-balanced visitor mix in the future, but ultimately much depends on the control of visitor industry capacity, chiefly the stock of TVRs. The gradual pace of this recovery provides an opportunity to address such concerns, if there is the political will to do so.


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233

Nonfarm Payrolls (Thou) 658.2 658.4 557.5 577.5 622.2 634.9

% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0


Population (Thou) 1,420.5 1,415.9 1,407.0 1,399.3 1,392.4 1,392.2

% Change -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0

Personal Income (Mil$) 78,436.1 80,726.5 85,445.5 86,621.7 84,920.1 88,499.3

% Change 3.1 2.9 5.8 1.4 -2.0 4.2



% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8

Real Per Capita Income (Thou 2020$) 57.0 57.9 60.7 60.7 58.6 59.6

% Change 1.5 1.6 4.9 0.0 -3.5 1.8

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 96,101.2 97,248.6 89,856.2 93,447.8 96,302.8 97,700.4

% Change 2.0 1.2 -7.6 4.0 3.1 1.5

TTOOUURRIISSMM SSEECCTTOORR DDEETTAAIILL


% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air 5.2 5.0 -73.8 135.9 37.4 4.0

U.S. Visitors 6,375.9 6,871.3 1,982.4 5,829.8 6,802.5 6,735.1

% Change - U.S. Visitors 7.9 7.8 -71.1 194.1 16.7 -1.0

Japanese Visitors 1,489.8 1,576.2 297.2 216.5 816.5 969.6

% Change - Japanese Visitors -2.3 5.8 -81.1 -27.2 277.2 18.7

Other Visitors 2,023.2 1,938.3 394.7 376.3 1,180.9 1,443.9

% Change - Other Visitors 2.7 -4.2 -79.6 -4.7 213.8 22.3


% Change 4.9 2.2 -68.2 119.9 24.9 5.6

Average Daily Room Rate ($) 276.0 282.6 208.4 267.6 295.4 315.5

% Change 4.5 2.4 -26.3 28.4 10.4 6.8

Occupancy Rate (%) 80.3 80.8 31.5 55.8 69.5 73.1


% Change 3.1 -0.4 -73.4 123.5 43.2 8.4

TTAABBLLEE 11:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSSTATE OF HAWAII BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Occupancy rate includes UHERO's estimate of TVR occupancy. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts.

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0

Construction and Mining 37.3 37.3 36.1 36.9 38.1 39.2

% Change 0.6 0.0 -3.3 2.4 3.3 2.8

Manufacturing 14.5 14.0 11.8 11.6 12.7 13.3

% Change -1.2 -3.2 -15.5 -1.7 8.8 5.0

Trade 90.7 89.7 77.5 78.6 82.8 84.3

% Change 0.7 -1.2 -13.6 1.4 5.3 1.8

Transportation and Utilities 33.7 35.6 27.2 28.5 32.4 33.1

% Change 2.3 5.6 -23.6 4.9 13.5 2.2

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 29.6 30.0 27.3 27.2 28.7 29.1

% Change 0.7 1.0 -8.7 -0.4 5.3 1.5

Services 326.9 325.9 256.7 276.4 307.0 314.3

% Change 0.5 -0.3 -21.2 7.7 11.1 2.4

Health Care and Soc. Assistance 72.7 73.1 70.3 71.5 74.1 75.1

% Change 1.2 0.6 -3.9 1.7 3.7 1.3

Accommodation and Food 113.5 113.0 69.5 83.0 99.0 103.0

% Change -0.2 -0.4 -38.5 19.5 19.3 4.1

Other 140.7 139.7 116.9 121.9 133.9 136.2

% Change 0.7 -0.7 -16.3 4.2 9.9 1.7

Government 125.5 126.1 120.9 118.2 120.5 121.7

% Change 0.0 0.4 -4.1 -2.2 2.0 1.0

Federal Government 33.7 34.3 35.0 34.3 34.5 34.6

% Change 1.0 1.7 2.2 -2.2 0.7 0.1

State and Local Government 91.8 91.8 85.8 83.9 86.0 87.1

% Change -0.4 0.0 -6.5 -2.2 2.5 1.3

TTAABBLLEE 22:: JJOOBBSS BBYY IINNDDUUSSTTRRYYSTATE OF HAWAII BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts.

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8

Labor & Proprietors' Income 57,504.0 58,369.2 53,710.6 55,061.7 56,489.4 57,567.8

% Change 2.0 1.5 -8.0 2.5 2.6 1.9

Construction 4,515.4 4,610.9 4,704.9 4,841.2 4,807.1 4,910.8

% Change -2.5 2.1 2.0 2.9 -0.7 2.2

Manufacturing 1,032.0 987.3 864.5 859.1 893.7 946.3

% Change 2.7 -4.3 -12.4 -0.6 4.0 5.9

Trade 4,890.0 4,955.0 4,473.0 4,472.8 4,567.5 4,627.7

% Change 0.8 1.3 -9.7 0.0 2.1 1.3

Transportation and Utilities 3,155.8 3,268.2 2,865.0 2,957.8 3,170.9 3,285.0

% Change 1.6 3.6 -12.3 3.2 7.2 3.6

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 3,602.1 3,730.5 3,739.0 3,849.5 3,869.7 3,885.3

% Change -1.8 3.6 0.2 3.0 0.5 0.4

Services 23,570.9 23,697.2 20,263.3 21,536.9 22,672.7 23,167.6

% Change 4.5 0.5 -14.5 6.3 5.3 2.2

Health Care & Soc. Assist. (% ch.) 3.2 3.3 0.3 2.7 0.8 2.1

Accommodation & Food (% ch.) 9.2 3.6 -40.9 21.7 13.6 3.9

Other (% ch.) 2.9 -2.3 -8.3 3.1 4.5 1.5

Government 16,434.7 16,794.0 16,402.4 16,104.1 16,107.5 16,348.5

% Change 1.6 2.2 -2.3 -1.8 0.0 1.5

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 1.7 2.5 0.7 -1.1 0.0 0.2

State & Local (% ch.) 1.6 1.5 -5.2 -5.5 -0.7 2.6

Less Social Security Taxes (-) 6,545.4 6,684.0 6,160.8 6,333.9 6,499.3 6,624.5

% Change 2.7 2.1 -7.8 2.8 2.6 1.9

Transfer Payments 12,543.7 12,871.9 20,803.7 18,958.6 13,943.2 14,167.8

% Change -0.1 2.6 61.6 -8.9 -26.5 1.6

Dividends, Interest and Rent 17,461.8 17,437.7 17,092.0 17,259.3 17,642.8 17,928.8

% Change 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 1.0 2.2 1.6

Population (Thou) 1,420.5 1,415.9 1,407.0 1,399.3 1,392.4 1,392.2

% Change -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0


% Change 1.5 1.6 4.9 0.0 -3.5 1.8


Nominal Personal Income (Mil. $) 78,436.1 80,726.5 85,445.5 86,621.7 84,920.1 88,499.3

% Change 3.1 2.9 5.8 1.4 -2.0 4.2

STATE OF HAWAII BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 33:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY IINNDDUUSSTTRRYY


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233

BBUUIILLDDIINNGG PPEERRMMIITTSS ((MMiill 22002200$$))Total Commitments to Build 5,509 3,909 6,189 5,927 6,666 5,989

% Change 20.3 -29.0 58.3 -4.2 12.5 -10.2

Real Private Building Permits 3,451 3,301 3,108 3,367 3,674 3,607

% Change 4.1 -4.4 -5.8 8.3 9.1 -1.8

Real Residential Building Permits 1,474 1,241 1,145 1,360 1,731 1,561

% Change -7.6 -15.8 -7.8 18.8 27.3 -9.9

Real Non-Residential Building Permits 1,977 2,059 1,964 2,007 1,942 2,046

% Change 14.9 4.1 -4.6 2.2 -3.2 5.3

Real Government Contracts Awarded 2,057 608 3,081 2,560 2,993 2,382

% Change 62.9 -70.4 406.4 -16.9 16.9 -20.4

CCOONNSSTTRRUUCCTTIIOONN AACCTTIIVVIITTYY

Real GE Contracting Tax Base (Mil 2020$) 9,985 9,845 9,925 10,817 11,514 11,751

% Change 12.4 -1.4 0.8 9.0 6.4 2.1

Nominal GE Contracting Tax Base (Mil $) 9,456 9,609 9,925 11,211 12,319 12,968

% Change 12.8 1.6 3.3 13.0 9.9 5.3

Construction Job Count (Thou) 37.3 37.3 36.1 36.9 38.1 39.2

% Change 0.6 0.0 -3.3 2.4 3.3 2.8

Real Construction Income (Mil 2020$) 4,515 4,611 4,705 4,841 4,807 4,911

% Change -2.5 2.1 2.0 2.9 -0.7 2.2

PPRRIICCEESS && CCOOSSTTSS ((HHOONNOOLLUULLUU))

Honolulu Median Home Price (Thou $) 787.7 789.4 821.9 952.3 1000.4 1020.5

% Change 4.3 0.2 4.1 15.9 5.1 2.0

Honolulu Median Condominium Price (Thou $) 419.4 426.6 432.8 457.8 474.9 489.2

% Change 3.5 1.7 1.5 5.8 3.7 3.0

Honolulu Housing Affordability Index 79.0 85.1 95.1 83.7 72.8 71.7

% Change -4.9 7.7 11.7 -12.0 -13.0 -1.5

Honolulu Construction Cost Index (2020=100) 94.7 97.6 100.0 103.6 107.0 110.4

% Change 0.4 3.1 2.5 3.6 3.2 3.1

30-Year Mortgage Rate (%) 4.5 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.8 4.0

TTAABBLLEE 44:: CCOONNSSTTRRUUCCTTIIOONN IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSSTATE OF HAWAII BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts. Commitments to Build are the sum of private permits and public contracts awarded. Permits and tax base are deflated by Honolulu Construction Cost Index. Income is deflated by Honolulu CPI. Housing affordability index is the ratio of median family income to qualifying income for a loan for the median-priced home (times 100).

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233

Non-farm Payrolls (Thou) 473.3 473.9 409.8 425.6 449.2 457.7

% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 3.9 5.5 1.9


Population (Thou) 980.1 974.6 966.1 958.9 953.0 951.6

% Change -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1

Personal Income (Mil $) 58,129.3 59,617.7 62,786.1 63,729.2 62,797.7 65,496.1

% Change 2.8 2.6 5.3 1.5 -1.5 4.3


Real Personal Income (Mil 2020 $) 60,002.9 60,554.4 62,786.1 62,495.9 60,324.7 61,455.3

% Change 0.9 0.9 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9

Real Per Capita Income (Thou 2020 $) 61.2 62.1 65.0 65.2 63.3 64.6

% Change 1.6 1.5 4.6 0.3 -2.9 2.0




U.S. Visitors 3,043.9 3,326.5 1,011.2 2,787.4 3,296.1 3,260.6


Japanese Visitors 1,399.3 1,492.8 277.4 207.7 784.2 931.6

% Change - Japanese Visitors -3.8 6.7 -81.4 -25.1 277.5 18.8

Other Visitors 1,419.2 1,334.6 270.2 278.3 880.8 1,075.6

% Change - Other Visitors 2.7 -6.0 -79.8 3.0 216.5 22.1


% Change 5.6 3.3 -69.2 102.6 29.5 8.0

Occupancy Rate (%) 83.8 84.1 32.4 57.1 71.8 76.1

HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 55:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYY

Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts.

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 3.9 5.5 1.9


% Change 0.2 0.0 -2.7 3.1 2.3 3.0

Manufacturing 11.5 11.0 9.3 8.9 9.8 10.4

% Change -2.3 -4.4 -15.6 -3.5 9.8 5.5

Trade 63.1 62.0 53.0 53.7 56.7 57.7

% Change 0.3 -1.6 -14.6 1.4 5.5 1.9


% Change 2.1 7.0 -21.2 5.2 10.0 1.5


% Change 0.3 1.5 -5.7 2.3 1.7 0.4

Services 228.0 228.0 186.5 201.9 216.4 221.1

% Change 0.3 0.0 -18.2 8.2 7.2 2.2


% Change 0.0 0.1 -3.5 1.4 3.4 1.3


% Change 0.2 -0.4 -35.3 24.7 8.6 3.9

Other 106.3 106.5 90.7 94.6 102.7 104.4

% Change 0.5 0.2 -14.8 4.2 8.6 1.7

Government 97.0 97.1 92.7 90.4 92.5 93.4

% Change 0.1 0.1 -4.5 -2.5 2.3 1.0


% Change 1.6 1.7 2.2 -1.9 0.6 0.1


% Change -0.6 -0.6 -7.8 -2.8 3.2 1.5

HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 66:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.9 0.9 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9


% Change 1.6 1.0 -6.2 2.6 1.4 1.9

Construction 3,313.6 3,379.1 3,445.0 3,563.8 3,503.7 3,583.2

% Change -3.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 -1.7 2.3

Manufacturing 844.0 796.5 695.5 679.5 713.2 759.7

% Change 1.5 -5.6 -12.7 -2.3 5.0 6.5

Trade 3,494.4 3,538.5 3,161.9 3,150.0 3,231.7 3,280.5

% Change 0.1 1.3 -10.6 -0.4 2.6 1.5


% Change 2.1 3.7 -10.3 3.4 5.0 3.1


% Change -4.5 4.0 1.1 4.9 -0.6 0.0

Services 16,994.7 16,935.4 15,139.8 16,110.8 16,555.3 16,913.5

% Change 3.6 -0.3 -10.6 6.4 2.8 2.2



Other (% ch.) 2.7 -3.5 -5.9 3.6 3.7 1.7

Government 13,952.2 14,199.1 13,837.7 13,630.2 13,659.3 13,857.9

% Change 2.2 1.8 -2.5 -1.5 0.2 1.5

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 1.7 2.5 0.6 -1.0 0.0 0.2

State & Local (% ch.) 3.3 0.4 -6.7 -6.1 -0.4 2.8


% Change 2.0 1.6 -5.6 2.6 1.4 1.8


% Change -0.2 2.5 54.2 -8.0 -23.7 1.9


% Change -0.4 -0.3 -1.8 0.9 1.9 1.7

Population (Thou) 980.1 974.6 966.1 958.9 953.0 951.6

% Change -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1


% Change 1.6 1.5 4.6 0.3 -2.9 2.0


Nominal Personal Income (Mil $) 58,129.3 59,617.7 62,786.1 63,729.2 62,797.7 65,496.1

% Change 2.8 2.6 5.3 1.5 -1.5 4.3

HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


TTAABBLLEE 77:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 -0.2 -14.7 5.8 6.5 1.7


Population (Thou) 201.0 201.5 201.7 201.5 201.2 201.8

% Change 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3


% Change 3.8 3.2 8.1 0.9 -3.4 3.8



% Change 2.0 1.5 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4


% Change 1.2 1.3 6.4 -1.0 -5.2 1.1



% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air -3.4 3.4 -72.9 141.9 35.7 4.5

U.S. Visitors 1,183.7 1,250.6 374.8 1,053.9 1,228.5 1,221.9

% Change - U.S. Visitors -0.7 5.7 -70.0 181.2 16.6 -0.5

Japanese Visitors 176.5 170.7 39.0 24.8 95.7 115.8

% Change - Japanese Visitors -4.0 -3.3 -77.2 -36.4 286.2 20.9

Other Visitors 346.0 342.6 63.5 75.9 242.9 300.6

% Change - Other Visitors -11.5 -1.0 -81.5 19.5 219.9 23.7


% Change -1.4 1.5 -64.5 124.4 13.4 4.8

Occupancy Rate (%) 73.5 77.0 33.3 55.0 64.9 67.1

TTAABBLLEE 88:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYYHAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 -0.2 -14.7 5.8 6.5 1.7


% Change 0.4 -2.4 -5.9 1.9 3.9 0.5

Manufacturing 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

% Change 3.2 2.5 -10.9 6.7 1.8 0.8

Trade 11.5 11.5 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.4

% Change 3.4 0.2 -7.6 4.4 2.3 0.7


% Change 1.0 -1.0 -24.3 8.1 14.7 3.2


% Change 1.9 1.9 -15.4 -0.6 5.6 2.5

Services 33.8 33.2 25.8 28.6 31.9 32.7

% Change -2.0 -1.6 -22.2 10.8 11.3 2.7


% Change 0.1 1.3 -6.5 5.6 1.2 0.6


% Change -4.7 -2.9 -36.5 22.6 16.5 5.5

Other 12.7 12.4 10.3 10.8 12.3 12.5

% Change -0.3 -2.1 -17.3 5.1 13.8 1.4

Government 14.6 15.0 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3

% Change 3.6 3.0 -4.1 -0.7 0.0 0.2


% Change -0.6 0.0 2.6 -6.1 -2.5 0.3


% Change 4.1 3.3 -4.7 -0.1 0.3 0.2

TTAABBLLEE 99:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))HAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 2.0 1.5 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4


% Change 2.1 2.1 -8.0 4.4 0.9 1.3

Construction — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —

Manufacturing — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —

Trade — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —

Transportation and Utilities — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 258.8 — — — — —

% Change 12.2 — — — — —

Services — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —

Health Care & Soc. Assist. (% ch.) — — — — — —


Other (% ch.) 2.8 1.1 -21.4 2.2 6.3 -0.2

Government 1,234.0 1,296.9 1,277.8 1,239.4 1,215.7 1,231.0

% Change 5.2 5.1 -1.5 -3.0 -1.9 1.3

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 0.6 2.7 1.4 1.1 -3.0 0.4

State & Local (% ch.) 5.9 5.4 -1.9 -4.0 -1.7 1.4

Less Social Security Taxes (-) 605.3 624.8 580.3 605.5 634.8 644.1

% Change 4.0 3.2 -7.1 4.3 4.8 1.5


% Change 0.7 2.0 70.8 -9.2 -30.5 1.1


% Change 3.5 0.3 -1.9 1.6 2.9 1.0

Population (Thou) 201.0 201.5 201.7 201.5 201.2 201.8

% Change 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3


% Change 1.2 1.3 6.4 -1.0 -5.2 1.1



% Change 3.8 3.2 8.1 0.9 -3.4 3.8

TTAABBLLEE 1100:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORRHAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts. Because of data disclosure rules, industry-level income is not available for some sectors.

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.7 3.7 18.7 2.5


Population (Thou) 167.2 167.4 167.3 166.9 166.5 166.9

% Change 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2


% Change 3.4 4.7 6.9 1.2 -3.5 4.2



% Change 1.5 3.1 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8


% Change 1.0 2.9 5.4 -0.6 -5.2 1.6




U.S. Visitors 2,315.3 2,488.6 728.9 2,198.5 2,570.0 2,551.8



% Change - Japanese Visitors -12.6 -3.0 -83.2 -15.9 283.0 20.1

Other Visitors 598.3 574.0 109.2 120.1 372.7 455.7



% Change 6.3 3.0 -68.8 151.0 21.2 3.5

Occupancy Rate (%) 76.0 77.7 27.4 53.2 68.6 73.1

MAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


TTAABBLLEE 1111:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYY

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.7 3.7 18.7 2.5


% Change -0.9 1.0 -3.8 1.2 7.5 2.9

Manufacturing 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

% Change 1.5 7.5 -20.1 3.8 7.2 5.2

Trade 11.6 11.5 9.7 9.9 10.5 10.7

% Change 1.2 -0.2 -16.2 2.6 6.3 1.9


% Change 3.1 4.1 -32.9 4.7 29.5 2.9


% Change 2.5 0.5 -23.9 -10.0 26.3 6.8

Services 46.6 46.5 31.6 33.7 42.8 43.8

% Change 3.3 -0.3 -32.1 6.7 27.1 2.4


% Change 14.7 3.5 -3.7 3.2 5.6 1.3


% Change 1.9 0.7 -46.4 11.0 48.1 1.8

Other 15.5 15.0 11.2 11.7 13.7 14.2

% Change 0.3 -3.6 -25.1 4.2 16.8 4.0

Government 9.2 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.9

% Change -4.7 -0.4 -4.2 -1.4 1.1 1.6


% Change -1.9 1.0 0.0 -9.8 2.5 -0.1


% Change -5.0 -0.5 -4.6 -0.5 1.0 1.8

MAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


TTAABBLLEE 1122:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 1.5 3.1 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8


% Change 3.4 3.5 -17.6 1.1 11.7 2.1

Construction 523.9 552.6 568.5 575.3 595.5 611.1

% Change -0.8 5.5 2.9 1.2 3.5 2.6

Manufacturing 71.9 74.6 62.7 66.0 68.0 71.8

% Change 7.5 3.8 -15.9 5.3 2.9 5.7

Trade 582.5 595.2 526.9 529.0 543.5 550.6

% Change 1.2 2.2 -11.5 0.4 2.7 1.3


% Change 1.7 5.0 -26.9 2.2 26.4 5.2

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 348.7 355.2 330.1 306.6 344.6 355.6

% Change 8.5 1.9 -7.1 -7.1 12.4 3.2

Services 3,238.3 3,344.7 2,455.1 2,577.0 3,016.9 3,072.7

% Change 9.7 3.3 -26.6 5.0 17.1 1.9



Other (% ch.) 4.1 1.8 -20.2 1.4 9.4 2.4

Government 788.5 820.3 805.7 775.2 771.9 791.1

% Change -13.4 4.0 -1.8 -3.8 -0.4 2.5

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 3.3 3.9 -1.2 -3.0 2.0 0.0

State & Local (% ch.) -16.2 3.7 -1.8 -4.3 -0.9 3.0


% Change 5.0 4.0 -20.2 2.8 8.4 2.6


% Change -0.6 5.7 85.3 -12.0 -32.6 1.2


% Change -1.3 0.2 -2.9 1.0 3.4 1.8

Population (Thou) 167.2 167.4 167.3 166.9 166.5 166.9

% Change 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2


% Change 1.0 2.9 5.4 -0.6 -5.2 1.6



% Change 3.4 4.7 6.9 1.2 -3.5 4.2

TTAABBLLEE 1133:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORRMAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.0 1.6 -22.0 0.3 15.3 3.9


Population (Thou) 72.1 72.3 72.1 71.9 71.7 71.9

% Change 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2


% Change 5.4 3.9 6.6 0.9 -3.0 4.0



% Change 3.5 2.3 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6


% Change 3.0 2.0 5.3 -0.9 -4.7 1.4



% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air 8.0 -1.3 -74.8 145.4 51.3 2.0

U.S. Visitors 1,134.4 1,135.7 301.3 802.8 1,131.5 1,123.9



% Change - Japanese Visitors -2.5 2.1 -86.5 4.9 286.1 20.3

Other Visitors 229.3 209.0 41.0 42.0 137.9 168.8



% Change 7.8 -2.5 -70.9 133.0 36.0 3.3

Occupancy Rate (%) 77.6 72.7 29.8 57.1 69.8 70.7

TTAABBLLEE 1144:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYYKAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.0 1.6 -22.0 0.3 15.3 3.9


% Change 5.0 7.8 -7.2 0.7 5.6 2.8

Manufacturing 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

% Change 0.0 0.0 -18.3 0.4 8.0 3.7

Trade 4.6 4.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3

% Change 0.7 -0.4 -14.0 0.8 5.9 2.2


% Change 3.2 -1.0 -29.7 1.8 22.9 7.2


% Change 1.4 0.7 -22.8 -19.1 30.2 8.3

Services 18.0 18.2 12.6 12.9 16.0 16.8

% Change -1.6 1.5 -30.7 2.4 23.6 4.9


% Change -7.0 2.6 -5.6 0.7 6.1 1.9


% Change -3.3 1.7 -44.9 3.6 42.6 8.5

Other 5.9 6.0 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.5

% Change 3.9 0.6 -21.1 2.0 12.7 1.6

Government 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0

% Change 2.0 2.8 -1.8 -2.4 1.5 0.8


% Change -7.7 13.3 5.9 -13.2 5.5 0.5


% Change 3.3 1.7 -2.7 -0.9 1.0 0.9

TTAABBLLEE 1155:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))KAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 3.5 2.3 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6


% Change 5.9 3.9 -15.3 -0.6 8.0 3.6


% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Trade — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 130.2 — — — — —

% Change 12.1 — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —



Other (% ch.) 3.3 3.3 -13.5 -0.9 5.5 0.0

Government 460.0 477.7 481.7 459.4 460.6 468.5

% Change 4.2 3.8 0.9 -4.6 0.2 1.7

Federal, civilian (% ch.) -0.3 5.9 4.5 -6.3 4.8 0.5

State & Local (% ch.) 5.0 3.3 0.1 -4.6 -0.9 2.0


% Change 6.4 4.3 -18.6 3.2 7.6 3.3

Transfer Payments 714.0 715.7 1,264.8 1,132.5 774.8 780.6

% Change -0.1 0.2 76.7 -10.5 -31.6 0.7

Dividends, Interest and Rent 864.0 866.2 843.5 853.2 878.5 895.6

% Change 0.9 0.3 -2.6 1.2 3.0 2.0

Population (Thou) 72.1 72.3 72.1 71.9 71.7 71.9

% Change 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2


% Change 3.0 2.0 5.3 -0.9 -4.7 1.4



% Change 5.4 3.9 6.6 0.9 -3.0 4.0 Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts. Because of data disclosure rules, industry-level income is not available for some sectors.

KAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 1166:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR

22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0



% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 96,101.2 97,248.6 89,856.2 93,447.8 96,302.8 97,700.4

% Change 2.0 1.2 -7.6 4.0 3.1 1.5


% Change 5.2 5.0 -73.8 135.9 37.4 4.0


% Change 4.9 2.2 -68.2 119.9 24.9 5.6


% Change 3.1 -0.4 -73.4 123.5 43.2 8.4


% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 3.8 5.5 1.9




% Change 0.9 0.9 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9


% Change 3.2 5.0 -75.4 116.1 51.6 6.2


% Change 0.4 -0.1 -14.7 5.7 6.5 1.7



% Change 2.0 1.5 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4


% Change -3.4 3.4 -72.9 141.9 35.7 4.5


% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.6 3.6 18.7 2.5



% Change 1.5 3.1 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8


% Change 5.9 5.0 -72.8 174.8 27.7 2.4


% Change -0.4 1.9 -21.8 0.2 15.3 3.9



% Change 3.5 2.3 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6


% Change 8.0 -1.3 -74.8 145.4 51.3 2.0

TTAABBLLEE 1177:: BBAASSEELLIINNEE FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOSTATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 5.4 7.8 2.1



% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 0.9 -3.2 2.2

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 96,101.2 97,248.6 89,856.2 95,067.6 98,532.6 100,508.7

% Change 2.0 1.2 -7.6 5.8 3.6 2.0


% Change 5.2 5.0 -73.8 165.4 31.3 2.5


% Change 4.9 2.2 -68.2 148.6 16.2 3.7


% Change 3.1 -0.4 -73.4 154.7 39.6 6.2


% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 5.3 5.8 1.8




% Change 0.9 0.9 3.6 0.8 -3.0 2.3


% Change 3.2 5.0 -75.4 150.6 43.8 4.1


% Change 0.4 -0.1 -14.7 6.9 6.8 2.2



% Change 2.0 1.5 6.4 1.3 -3.9 1.7


% Change -3.4 3.4 -72.9 170.9 29.9 3.3


% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.6 7.3 17.0 3.0



% Change 1.5 3.1 5.9 1.1 -3.6 2.2


% Change 5.9 5.0 -72.8 202.2 22.3 1.5


% Change -0.4 1.9 -21.8 2.6 15.3 4.7



% Change 3.5 2.3 5.2 0.8 -3.8 2.4


% Change 8.0 -1.3 -74.8 187.3 35.7 1.2

TTAABBLLEE 1188:: OOPPTTIIMMIISSTTIICC FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOSTATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233


% Change 0.5 0.0 -15.3 2.0 7.3 2.3



% Change 1.2 1.3 4.2 -1.8 -4.6 2.1

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 96,101.2 97,248.6 89,856.2 91,782.2 93,952.0 95,662.3

% Change 2.0 1.2 -7.6 2.1 2.4 1.8


% Change 5.2 5.0 -73.8 106.1 48.4 8.4


% Change 4.9 2.2 -68.2 92.3 37.4 10.3


% Change 3.1 -0.4 -73.4 77.1 58.3 19.3


% Change 0.3 0.1 -13.5 2.3 5.1 2.1




% Change 0.9 0.9 3.7 -1.8 -3.9 2.2


% Change 3.2 5.0 -75.4 84.6 65.5 11.5


% Change 0.4 -0.1 -14.7 4.0 6.5 1.8



% Change 2.0 1.5 6.5 -2.0 -6.7 1.7


% Change -3.4 3.4 -72.9 112.0 46.5 9.0


% Change 1.7 0.2 -24.6 1.6 18.0 3.4



% Change 1.5 3.1 5.3 -1.6 -6.9 1.9


% Change 5.9 5.0 -72.8 143.9 37.2 6.2


% Change -0.4 1.9 -21.8 -1.6 15.0 4.5



% Change 3.5 2.3 4.6 -1.8 -6.5 2.1


% Change 8.0 -1.3 -74.8 111.6 67.6 5.8

TTAABBLLEE 1199:: PPEESSSSIIMMIISSTTIICC FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOSTATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22001188 22001199 22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233

UU..SS.. FFAACCTTOORRSS

Employment (Thou) 155,761.0 157,538.1 147,794.8 152,935.1 159,119.1 162,032.4

% Change 1.6 1.1 -6.2 3.5 4.0 1.8


Inflation Rate (%) 2.4 1.8 1.2 2.7 2.3 2.0

Real GDP (Bil chained 2012$) 18,687.8 19,091.7 18,426.1 19,508.7 20,400.5 20,950.6

% Change 3.0 2.2 -3.5 5.9 4.6 2.7

Population (Thou) 326,949.0 328,527.0 330,152.0 331,670.2 333,083.5 334,668.7

% Change 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

JJAAPPAANN FFAACCTTOORRSS

Employment (Thou) 66,635.8 67,245.0 66,765.8 67,098.6 67,024.3 66,783.8

% Change 2.0 0.9 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.4


Inflation Rate (%) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.9

Real GDP (Bil chained 2011 yen) 554,314.9 555,877.6 528,618.5 553,696.3 565,331.0 572,388.9

% Change 0.6 0.3 -4.9 4.7 2.1 1.2

Population (Thou) 126,529.1 126,264.9 125,965.3 125,608.0 125,224.1 124,817.1

% Change -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Exchange Rate (Yen/$) 110.4 109.0 106.8 107.1 104.1 100.8

TTAABBLLEE 2200:: EEXXTTEERRNNAALL IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSS

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for Japanese population for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2023 are forecasts.

STATE OF HAWAII FORECAST

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0 1.0 0.6


Population (Thou) 1,407.0 1,399.3 1,392.4 1,392.2 1,393.9 1,396.1

% Change -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2

Personal Income (Mil$) 85,445.5 86,621.7 84,920.1 88,499.3 91,539.8 94,400.8

% Change 5.8 1.4 -2.0 4.2 3.4 3.1



% Change 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8 1.3 1.0


% Change 4.9 0.0 -3.5 1.8 1.1 0.9

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 89,856.2 93,447.8 96,302.8 97,700.4 98,523.8 99,053.3

% Change -7.6 4.0 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.5



% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air -73.8 135.9 37.4 4.0 0.9 1.3

U.S. Visitors 1,982.4 5,829.8 6,802.5 6,735.1 6,590.9 6,551.8

% Change - U.S. Visitors -71.1 194.1 16.7 -1.0 -2.1 -0.6

Japanese Visitors 297.2 216.5 816.5 969.6 1,080.4 1,172.4

% Change - Japanese Visitors -81.1 -27.2 277.2 18.7 11.4 8.5

Other Visitors 394.7 376.3 1,180.9 1,443.9 1,556.4 1,625.0

% Change - Other Visitors -79.6 -4.7 213.8 22.3 7.8 4.4


% Change -68.2 119.9 24.9 5.6 2.4 1.5

Average Daily Room Rate ($) 208.4 267.6 295.4 315.5 330.8 341.6

% Change -26.3 28.4 10.4 6.8 4.9 3.3

Occupancy Rate (%) 31.5 55.8 69.5 73.1 75.1 76.3


% Change -73.4 123.5 43.2 8.4 4.4 0.7

TTAABBLLEE 2211:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Occupancy rate includes UHERO's estimate of TVR occupancy. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts.

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0 1.0 0.6


% Change -3.3 2.4 3.3 2.8 -0.7 -1.1

Manufacturing 11.8 11.6 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.7

% Change -15.5 -1.7 8.8 5.0 2.2 1.0

Trade 77.5 78.6 82.8 84.3 85.5 86.4

% Change -13.6 1.4 5.3 1.8 1.5 1.1


% Change -23.6 4.9 13.5 2.2 0.9 0.7


% Change -8.7 -0.4 5.3 1.5 0.7 0.4

Services 256.7 276.4 307.0 314.3 317.6 319.8

% Change -21.2 7.7 11.1 2.4 1.0 0.7


% Change -3.9 1.7 3.7 1.3 0.9 0.7


% Change -38.5 19.5 19.3 4.1 1.8 1.2

Other 116.9 121.9 133.9 136.2 136.9 137.4

% Change -16.3 4.2 9.9 1.7 0.6 0.4

Government 120.9 118.2 120.5 121.7 122.7 123.4

% Change -4.1 -2.2 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.6


% Change 2.2 -2.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0


% Change -6.5 -2.2 2.5 1.3 1.0 0.9

TTAABBLLEE 2222:: JJOOBBSS BBYY IINNDDUUSSTTRRYYEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII FORECAST


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8 1.3 1.0


% Change -8.0 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.9

Construction 4,704.9 4,841.2 4,807.1 4,910.8 4,887.8 4,865.2

% Change 2.0 2.9 -0.7 2.2 -0.5 -0.5

Manufacturing 864.5 859.1 893.7 946.3 977.9 998.3

% Change -12.4 -0.6 4.0 5.9 3.3 2.1

Trade 4,473.0 4,472.8 4,567.5 4,627.7 4,675.8 4,715.9

% Change -9.7 0.0 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.9


% Change -12.3 3.2 7.2 3.6 1.9 1.3


% Change 0.2 3.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Services 20,263.3 21,536.9 22,672.7 23,167.6 23,527.5 23,775.1

% Change -14.5 6.3 5.3 2.2 1.6 1.1


Accommodation & Food (% ch.) -40.9 21.7 13.6 3.9 3.3 2.5

Other (% ch.) -8.3 3.1 4.5 1.5 0.8 0.5

Government 16,402.4 16,104.1 16,107.5 16,348.5 16,558.5 16,736.6

% Change -2.3 -1.8 0.0 1.5 1.3 1.1

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 0.7 -1.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4

State & Local (% ch.) -5.2 -5.5 -0.7 2.6 2.0 1.5


% Change -7.8 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.9


% Change 61.6 -8.9 -26.5 1.6 1.7 1.9


% Change -2.0 1.0 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.7

Population (Thou) 1,407.0 1,399.3 1,392.4 1,392.2 1,393.9 1,396.1

% Change -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2


% Change 4.9 0.0 -3.5 1.8 1.1 0.9


Nominal Personal Income (Mil. $) 85,445.5 86,621.7 84,920.1 88,499.3 91,539.8 94,400.8

% Change 5.8 1.4 -2.0 4.2 3.4 3.1

TTAABBLLEE 2233:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY IINNDDUUSSTTRRYYEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII FORECAST


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255

BBUUIILLDDIINNGG PPEERRMMIITTSS ((MMiill 22002200$$))

Total Commitments to Build 6,189 5,927 6,666 5,989 5,491 4,943

% Change 58.3 -4.2 12.5 -10.2 -8.3 -10.0

Real Private Building Permits 3,108 3,367 3,674 3,607 3,420 3,233

% Change -5.8 8.3 9.1 -1.8 -5.2 -5.5

Real Residential Building Permits 1,145 1,360 1,731 1,561 1,385 1,248

% Change -7.8 18.8 27.3 -9.9 -11.3 -9.9

Real Non-Residential Building Permits 1,964 2,007 1,942 2,046 2,035 1,984

% Change -4.6 2.2 -3.2 5.3 -0.5 -2.5

Real Government Contracts Awarded 3,081 2,560 2,993 2,382 2,071 1,711

% Change 406.4 -16.9 16.9 -20.4 -13.1 -17.4

CCOONNSSTTRRUUCCTTIIOONN AACCTTIIVVIITTYY

Real GE Contracting Tax Base (Mil 2020$) 9,925 10,817 11,514 11,751 11,428 10,929

% Change 0.8 9.0 6.4 2.1 -2.8 -4.4

Nominal GE Contracting Tax Base (Mil $) 9,925 11,211 12,319 12,968 12,985 12,772

% Change 3.3 13.0 9.9 5.3 0.1 -1.6

Construction Job Count (Thou) 36.1 36.9 38.1 39.2 38.9 38.5

% Change -3.3 2.4 3.3 2.8 -0.7 -1.1

Real Construction Income (Mil 2020$) 4,705 4,841 4,807 4,911 4,888 4,865

% Change 2.0 2.9 -0.7 2.2 -0.5 -0.5

PPRRIICCEESS && CCOOSSTTSS ((HHOONNOOLLUULLUU))

Honolulu Median Home Price (Thou $) 821.9 952.3 1000.4 1020.5 1030.8 1032.8

% Change 4.1 15.9 5.1 2.0 1.0 0.2

Honolulu Median Condominium Price (Thou $) 432.8 457.8 474.9 489.2 499.5 502.9

% Change 1.5 5.8 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.7

Honolulu Housing Affordability Index 95.1 83.7 72.8 71.7 72.0 73.0

% Change 11.7 -12.0 -13.0 -1.5 0.4 1.4

Honolulu Construction Cost Index (2020=100) 100.0 103.6 107.0 110.4 113.6 116.9

% Change 2.5 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8

30-Year Mortgage Rate (%) 3.1 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2

TTAABBLLEE 2244:: CCOONNSSTTRRUUCCTTIIOONN IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII FORECAST

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts. Commitments to Build are the sum of private permits and public contracts awarded. Permits and tax base are deflated by Honolulu Construction Cost Index. Income is deflated by Honolulu CPI. Housing affordability index is the ratio of median family income to qualifying income for a loan for the median-priced home (times 100).

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -13.5 3.9 5.5 1.9 0.9 0.5


Population (Thou) 966.1 958.9 953.0 951.6 951.7 952.1

% Change -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0


% Change 5.3 1.5 -1.5 4.3 3.4 3.0



% Change 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9 1.3 0.9


% Change 4.6 0.3 -2.9 2.0 1.3 0.9




U.S. Visitors 1,011.2 2,787.4 3,296.1 3,260.6 3,191.7 3,178.2


Japanese Visitors 277.4 207.7 784.2 931.6 1,038.5 1,127.4


Other Visitors 270.2 278.3 880.8 1,075.6 1,157.7 1,207.0

% Change - Other Visitors -79.8 3.0 216.5 22.1 7.6 4.3


% Change -69.2 102.6 29.5 8.0 3.3 1.9

Occupancy Rate (%) 32.4 57.1 71.8 76.1 78.5 79.9

EXTENDED HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 2255:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYY


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255

Non-farm Payrolls 409.8 425.6 449.2 457.7 461.8 464.3

% Change -13.5 3.9 5.5 1.9 0.9 0.5


% Change -2.7 3.1 2.3 3.0 -0.7 -1.4

Manufacturing 9.3 8.9 9.8 10.4 10.6 10.7

% Change -15.6 -3.5 9.8 5.5 2.1 0.9

Trade 53.0 53.7 56.7 57.7 58.7 59.3

% Change -14.6 1.4 5.5 1.9 1.6 1.2


% Change -21.2 5.2 10.0 1.5 0.8 0.7


% Change -5.7 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.3

Services 186.5 201.9 216.4 221.1 223.1 224.3

% Change -18.2 8.2 7.2 2.2 0.9 0.6


% Change -3.5 1.4 3.4 1.3 0.9 0.6


% Change -35.3 24.7 8.6 3.9 1.9 1.1

Other 90.7 94.6 102.7 104.4 104.7 104.9

% Change -14.8 4.2 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.2

Government 92.7 90.4 92.5 93.4 94.3 95.0

% Change -4.5 -2.5 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.7


% Change 2.2 -1.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0


% Change -7.8 -2.8 3.2 1.5 1.3 1.1

EXTENDED HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 2266:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9 1.3 0.9


% Change -6.2 2.6 1.4 1.9 1.1 0.8

Construction 3,445.0 3,563.8 3,503.7 3,583.2 3,567.0 3,536.1

% Change 2.0 3.4 -1.7 2.3 -0.5 -0.9

Manufacturing 695.5 679.5 713.2 759.7 786.2 802.6

% Change -12.7 -2.3 5.0 6.5 3.5 2.1

Trade 3,161.9 3,150.0 3,231.7 3,280.5 3,317.8 3,345.5

% Change -10.6 -0.4 2.6 1.5 1.1 0.8


% Change -10.3 3.4 5.0 3.1 2.2 1.4


% Change 1.1 4.9 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5

Services 15,139.8 16,110.8 16,555.3 16,913.5 17,116.4 17,250.6

% Change -10.6 6.4 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.8



Other (% ch.) -5.9 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.1

Government 13,837.7 13,630.2 13,659.3 13,857.9 14,027.9 14,181.3

% Change -2.5 -1.5 0.2 1.5 1.2 1.1


State & Local (% ch.) -6.7 -6.1 -0.4 2.8 2.1 1.7


% Change -5.6 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.8


% Change 54.2 -8.0 -23.7 1.9 1.5 1.6


% Change -1.8 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8

Population (Thou) 966.1 958.9 953.0 951.6 951.7 952.1

% Change -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0


% Change 4.6 0.3 -2.9 2.0 1.3 0.9



% Change 5.3 1.5 -1.5 4.3 3.4 3.0

EXTENDED HONOLULU COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIOTTAABBLLEE 2277:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -14.7 5.8 6.5 1.7 0.8 0.5


Population (Thou) 201.7 201.5 201.2 201.8 202.6 203.5

% Change 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4


% Change 8.1 0.9 -3.4 3.8 3.4 3.3



% Change 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4 1.3 1.2


% Change 6.4 -1.0 -5.2 1.1 0.8 0.7


Total Visitor Arrivals by Air (Thou) 477.3 1,154.6 1,567.1 1,638.2 1,660.2 1,689.9


U.S. Visitors 374.8 1,053.9 1,228.5 1,221.9 1,201.8 1,200.7




Other Visitors 63.5 75.9 242.9 300.6 327.0 344.1



% Change -64.5 124.4 13.4 4.8 2.1 1.5

Occupancy Rate (%) 33.3 55.0 64.9 67.1 68.4 69.6

TTAABBLLEE 2288:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYYEXTENDED HAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -14.7 5.8 6.5 1.7 0.8 0.5


% Change -5.9 1.9 3.9 0.5 -0.8 1.8

Manufacturing 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

% Change -10.9 6.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 1.6

Trade 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5

% Change -7.6 4.4 2.3 0.7 -0.3 0.9


% Change -24.3 8.1 14.7 3.2 3.1 1.0


% Change -15.4 -0.6 5.6 2.5 3.7 2.7

Services 25.8 28.6 31.9 32.7 33.1 33.1

% Change -22.2 10.8 11.3 2.7 1.2 0.0


% Change -6.5 5.6 1.2 0.6 -0.3 -0.3


% Change -36.5 22.6 16.5 5.5 2.4 -0.2

Other 10.3 10.8 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6

% Change -17.3 5.1 13.8 1.4 1.0 0.4

Government 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4

% Change -4.1 -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4


% Change 2.6 -6.1 -2.5 0.3 -0.5 1.0


% Change -4.7 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts.

TTAABBLLEE 2299:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))EXTENDED HAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4 1.3 1.2


% Change -8.0 4.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.0


% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Trade — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —



Other (% ch.) -21.4 2.2 6.3 -0.2 1.6 0.4

Government 1,277.8 1,239.4 1,215.7 1,231.0 1,248.1 1,263.6

% Change -1.5 -3.0 -1.9 1.3 1.4 1.2

Federal, civilian (% ch.) 1.4 1.1 -3.0 0.4 -0.4 1.2

State & Local (% ch.) -1.9 -4.0 -1.7 1.4 1.7 1.2


% Change -7.1 4.3 4.8 1.5 1.5 1.2


% Change 70.8 -9.2 -30.5 1.1 2.3 2.5


% Change -1.9 1.6 2.9 1.0 0.7 0.4

Population (Thou) 201.7 201.5 201.2 201.8 202.6 203.5

% Change 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4


% Change 6.4 -1.0 -5.2 1.1 0.8 0.7



% Change 8.1 0.9 -3.4 3.8 3.4 3.3

TTAABBLLEE 3300:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORREXTENDED HAWAII COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts. Because of data disclosure rules, industry-level income is not available for some sectors.

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -24.7 3.7 18.7 2.5 1.2 1.0


Population (Thou) 167.3 166.9 166.5 166.9 167.5 168.1

% Change -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4


% Change 6.9 1.2 -3.5 4.2 3.5 3.5



% Change 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8 1.3 1.4


% Change 5.4 -0.6 -5.2 1.6 0.9 1.1



% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air -72.8 174.8 27.7 2.4 -0.3 0.6

U.S. Visitors 728.9 2,198.5 2,570.0 2,551.8 2,503.9 2,495.7




Other Visitors 109.2 120.1 372.7 455.7 491.2 512.8



% Change -68.8 151.0 21.2 3.5 1.4 1.1

Occupancy Rate (%) 27.4 53.2 68.6 73.1 75.4 76.6

TTAABBLLEE 3311:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYY


EXTENDED MAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -24.7 3.7 18.7 2.5 1.2 1.0


% Change -3.8 1.2 7.5 2.9 -1.4 -1.4

Manufacturing 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

% Change -20.1 3.8 7.2 5.2 3.0 0.4

Trade 9.7 9.9 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.0

% Change -16.2 2.6 6.3 1.9 2.1 0.4


% Change -32.9 4.7 29.5 2.9 -0.6 0.1


% Change -23.9 -10.0 26.3 6.8 -0.5 -0.8

Services 31.6 33.7 42.8 43.8 44.6 45.3

% Change -32.1 6.7 27.1 2.4 1.7 1.8


% Change -3.7 3.2 5.6 1.3 1.4 1.2


% Change -46.4 11.0 48.1 1.8 0.6 1.4

Other 11.2 11.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1

% Change -25.1 4.2 16.8 4.0 3.4 2.7

Government 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.9

% Change -4.2 -1.4 1.1 1.6 0.5 -0.1


% Change 0.0 -9.8 2.5 -0.1 1.4 -0.8


% Change -4.6 -0.5 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0

TTAABBLLEE 3322:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))EXTENDED MAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8 1.3 1.4


% Change -17.6 1.1 11.7 2.1 1.6 1.4

Construction 568.5 575.3 595.5 611.1 605.7 601.5

% Change 2.9 1.2 3.5 2.6 -0.9 -0.7

Manufacturing 62.7 66.0 68.0 71.8 74.7 75.7

% Change -15.9 5.3 2.9 5.7 4.0 1.3

Trade 526.9 529.0 543.5 550.6 560.8 564.1

% Change -11.5 0.4 2.7 1.3 1.9 0.6


% Change -26.9 2.2 26.4 5.2 -0.8 0.7

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 330.1 306.6 344.6 355.6 348.9 344.7

% Change -7.1 -7.1 12.4 3.2 -1.9 -1.2

Services 2,455.1 2,577.0 3,016.9 3,072.7 3,153.7 3,228.5

% Change -26.6 5.0 17.1 1.9 2.6 2.4



Other (% ch.) -20.2 1.4 9.4 2.4 4.2 2.7

Government 805.7 775.2 771.9 791.1 805.5 810.0

% Change -1.8 -3.8 -0.4 2.5 1.8 0.6

Federal, civilian (% ch.) -1.2 -3.0 2.0 0.0 1.6 -0.6

State & Local (% ch.) -1.8 -4.3 -0.9 3.0 1.9 0.8


% Change -20.2 2.8 8.4 2.6 2.0 1.7


% Change 85.3 -12.0 -32.6 1.2 2.4 2.6


% Change -2.9 1.0 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.6

Population (Thou) 167.3 166.9 166.5 166.9 167.5 168.1

% Change -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4


% Change 5.4 -0.6 -5.2 1.6 0.9 1.1



% Change 6.9 1.2 -3.5 4.2 3.5 3.5 Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts.

TTAABBLLEE 3333:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORREXTENDED MAUI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -22.0 0.3 15.3 3.9 1.7 1.1


Population (Thou) 72.1 71.9 71.7 71.9 72.1 72.4

% Change -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3


% Change 6.6 0.9 -3.0 4.0 3.5 3.3



% Change 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6 1.4 1.2


% Change 5.3 -0.9 -4.7 1.4 1.0 0.9


Total Visitor Arrivals by Air (Thou) 345.8 848.4 1,283.3 1,309.4 1,302.1 1,306.1

% Change - Total Visitor Arrivals by Air -74.8 145.4 51.3 2.0 -0.6 0.3

U.S. Visitors 301.3 802.8 1,131.5 1,123.9 1,101.2 1,095.1



% Change - Japanese Visitors -86.5 4.9 286.1 20.3 12.7 9.7

Other Visitors 41.0 42.0 137.9 168.8 182.1 190.3



% Change -70.9 133.0 36.0 3.3 1.7 1.3

Occupancy Rate (%) 29.8 57.1 69.8 70.7 70.9 71.4

TTAABBLLEE 3344:: MMAAJJOORR EECCOONNOOMMIICC IINNDDIICCAATTOORR SSUUMMMMAARRYYEXTENDED KAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -22.0 0.3 15.3 3.9 1.7 1.1


% Change -7.2 0.7 5.6 2.8 -0.4 -0.3

Manufacturing 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

% Change -18.3 0.4 8.0 3.7 3.3 1.9

Trade 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4

% Change -14.0 0.8 5.9 2.2 1.9 1.2


% Change -29.7 1.8 22.9 7.2 2.0 0.8


% Change -22.8 -19.1 30.2 8.3 3.2 0.8

Services 12.6 12.9 16.0 16.8 17.1 17.4

% Change -30.7 2.4 23.6 4.9 2.1 1.5


% Change -5.6 0.7 6.1 1.9 1.4 1.4


% Change -44.9 3.6 42.6 8.5 2.6 1.9

Other 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6

% Change -21.1 2.0 12.7 1.6 1.5 1.1

Government 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1

% Change -1.8 -2.4 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.3


% Change 5.9 -13.2 5.5 0.5 0.6 0.1


% Change -2.7 -0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4

TTAABBLLEE 3355:: JJOOBBSS BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORR ((TTHHOOUUSSAANNDDSS))


EXTENDED KAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6 1.4 1.2


% Change -15.3 -0.6 8.0 3.6 2.3 1.7


% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Trade — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate — — — — — —

% Change — — — — — —


% Change — — — — — —



Other (% ch.) -13.5 -0.9 5.5 0.0 2.3 1.1

Government 481.7 459.4 460.6 468.5 477.1 481.8

% Change 0.9 -4.6 0.2 1.7 1.8 1.0


State & Local (% ch.) 0.1 -4.6 -0.9 2.0 2.1 1.1


% Change -18.6 3.2 7.6 3.3 1.9 1.3

Transfer Payments 1,264.8 1,132.5 774.8 780.6 795.6 812.3

% Change 76.7 -10.5 -31.6 0.7 1.9 2.1

Dividends, Interest and Rent 843.5 853.2 878.5 895.6 901.8 905.5

% Change -2.6 1.2 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.4

Population (Thou) 72.1 71.9 71.7 71.9 72.1 72.4

% Change -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3


% Change 5.3 -0.9 -4.7 1.4 1.0 0.9



% Change 6.6 0.9 -3.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 Note: Source is UHERO. Income figures for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts. Because of data disclosure rules, industry-level income is not available for some sectors.

TTAABBLLEE 3366:: PPEERRSSOONNAALL IINNCCOOMMEE BBYY DDEETTAAIILLEEDD SSEECCTTOORREXTENDED KAUAI COUNTY BASELINE FORECAST SCENARIO

22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -15.3 3.6 7.7 2.0 1.0 0.6



% Change 4.2 -0.6 -4.0 1.8 1.3 1.0

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 89,856.2 93,447.8 96,302.8 97,700.4 98,523.8 99,053.3

% Change -7.6 4.0 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.5


% Change -73.8 135.9 37.4 4.0 0.9 1.3


% Change -68.2 119.9 24.9 5.6 2.4 1.5


% Change -73.4 123.5 43.2 8.4 4.4 0.7


% Change -13.5 3.8 5.5 1.9 0.9 0.5




% Change 3.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.9 1.3 0.9


% Change -75.4 116.1 51.6 6.2 2.3 2.3


% Change -14.7 5.7 6.5 1.7 0.8 0.5



% Change 6.5 -1.1 -5.4 1.4 1.3 1.2


% Change -72.9 141.9 35.7 4.5 1.3 1.8


% Change -24.6 3.6 18.7 2.5 1.2 1.0



% Change 5.3 -0.8 -5.4 1.8 1.3 1.4


% Change -72.8 174.8 27.7 2.4 -0.3 0.6


% Change -21.8 0.2 15.3 3.9 1.7 1.1



% Change 4.9 -1.1 -5.0 1.6 1.4 1.2


% Change -74.8 145.4 51.3 2.0 -0.6 0.3

TTAABBLLEE 3377:: BBAASSEELLIINNEE FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -15.3 5.4 7.8 2.1 1.1 0.6



% Change 4.2 0.9 -3.2 2.2 1.5 1.0

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 89,856.2 95,067.6 98,532.6 100,508.7 101,634.2 102,242.7

% Change -7.6 5.8 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.6


% Change -73.8 165.4 31.3 2.5 -0.7 -0.4


% Change -68.2 148.6 16.2 3.7 1.3 0.6


% Change -73.4 154.7 39.6 6.2 4.1 -0.1


% Change -13.5 5.3 5.8 1.8 0.9 0.5




% Change 3.6 0.8 -3.0 2.3 1.6 1.1


% Change -75.4 150.6 43.8 4.1 0.3 0.1


% Change -14.7 6.9 6.8 2.2 1.1 0.6



% Change 6.4 1.3 -3.9 1.7 1.3 0.7


% Change -72.9 170.9 29.9 3.3 -0.1 0.3


% Change -24.6 7.3 17.0 3.0 1.8 0.8



% Change 5.9 1.1 -3.6 2.2 1.8 0.7


% Change -72.8 202.2 22.3 1.5 -1.4 -0.5


% Change -21.8 2.6 15.3 4.7 2.0 0.9



% Change 5.2 0.8 -3.8 2.4 0.9 0.9


% Change -74.8 187.3 35.7 1.2 -1.6 -0.7

TTAABBLLEE 3388:: OOPPTTIIMMIISSTTIICC FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255


% Change -15.3 2.0 7.3 2.3 1.1 0.8



% Change 4.2 -1.8 -4.6 2.1 1.7 1.4

Real GDP (Mil 2020$) 89,856.2 91,782.2 93,952.0 95,662.3 96,811.0 97,580.6

% Change -7.6 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.8


% Change -73.8 106.1 48.4 8.4 1.9 0.6


% Change -68.2 92.3 37.4 10.3 2.5 0.3


% Change -73.4 77.1 58.3 19.3 7.9 1.8


% Change -13.5 2.3 5.1 2.1 1.1 0.8




% Change 3.7 -1.8 -3.9 2.2 1.6 1.4


% Change -75.4 84.6 65.5 11.5 3.5 1.6


% Change -14.7 4.0 6.5 1.8 1.0 0.7



% Change 6.5 -2.0 -6.7 1.7 2.0 1.4


% Change -72.9 112.0 46.5 9.0 2.3 1.1


% Change -24.6 1.6 18.0 3.4 1.3 1.0



% Change 5.3 -1.6 -6.9 1.9 2.2 1.4


% Change -72.8 143.9 37.2 6.2 0.5 -0.1


% Change -21.8 -1.6 15.0 4.5 1.9 1.3



% Change 4.6 -1.8 -6.5 2.1 2.0 1.5


% Change -74.8 111.6 67.6 5.8 0.2 -0.4

TTAABBLLEE 3399:: PPEESSSSIIMMIISSTTIICC FFOORREECCAASSTT SSCCEENNAARRIIOOEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII AND COUNTY FORECAST


22002200 22002211 22002222 22002233 22002244 22002255

UU..SS.. FFAACCTTOORRSS

Employment (Thou) 147,794.8 152,935.1 159,119.1 162,032.4 163,435.5 164,098.6

% Change -6.2 3.5 4.0 1.8 0.9 0.4


Inflation Rate (%) 1.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0

Real GDP (Bil chained 2012$) 18,426.1 19,508.7 20,400.5 20,950.6 21,396.1 21,783.6

% Change -3.5 5.9 4.6 2.7 2.1 1.8

Population (Thou) 330,152.0 331,670.2 333,083.5 334,668.7 336,382.5 338,197.1

% Change 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

JJAAPPAANN FFAACCTTOORRSS

Employment (Thou) 66,765.8 67,098.6 67,024.3 66,783.8 66,487.0 66,149.9

% Change -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5


Inflation Rate (%) 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0

Real GDP (Bil chained 2011 yen) 528,618.5 553,696.3 565,331.0 572,388.9 577,973.5 582,172.2

% Change -4.9 4.7 2.1 1.2 1.0 0.7

Population (Thou) 125,965.3 125,608.0 125,224.1 124,817.1 124,392.0 123,943.1

% Change -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4

Exchange Rate (Yen/$) 106.8 107.1 104.1 100.8 97.7 95.4

Note: Source is UHERO. Figures for Japanese population for 2020 are UHERO estimates. Figures for 2021-2025 are forecasts.

TTAABBLLEE 4400:: EEXXTTEERRNNAALL IINNDDIICCAATTOORRSSEXTENDED STATE OF HAWAII FORECAST

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