2.1. china wind market is booming by l. junfeng

8/9/2019 2.1. China Wind Market is Booming by L. Junfeng

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2010-7-6 ERI/CREIA 1

China wind market is booming:

---- Growth not only on-shore but off-shore

Li Junfeng

Energy Research Institute of NDRC &

China Renewable Energy Industry AssociationJune 21, 2010

Manila, Philippine

TheviewsexpressedinthispresentationarethoseofthepresenteranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.


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Contents

International wind development outlook

Wind power resources allocation

Development status

Update resent yearsNational policy

Potential for more depends onOutlook supply vs. demand forecast


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International wind development

outlook


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Accumulated wind power installation

by Country


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Newly added wind power in 2009


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China wind power development


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National Wind Power Resource

There arediscrepancybetween

differentinstitutions forevaluation ofwind powerresource in

methodologyand results.

It still indicatesthat the wind

resource inChina isabundant.

GW

253300

1,400

750

600

2,000

150

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2nd Resource Census 3rd Resource Census UNEP Calculate CAS Geographical

Institution

Estimated by Ocean

Scheme

Land Sea


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National Wind Power Resource

Theoretical reserves of more than4,000GW above 10m height withtechnically exploitable reserve of 300GW.The practical development area isapproximate 200,000 km2

Based on current technology, over 50m

level, it requires 3-5 MW wind turbine tocover 1km2. With 200,000 km2

development land area available in China,the total installed onshore wind capacitycan probably reach 600~ 1,000GW.

According to the China Coastal Zoneand Tideland Resource Investigation

Report, the sea area of 0-20m offcoastline is around 157,000 km2

Assuming 10% to 20% of the totalamount of sea surface used, the totaloffshore wind capacity can reach100~200GW.

Onshore Resource

Conclusion Abundant wind power resource in China

Great development potential

A key constituent in future energy structure

Offshore Resource


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Ranked second in the world by the

accumulated installation with about 24-26 GW


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Ranked the first by newly added with 12-

14 GW a year


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Regional distribution of turbines

installation


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Development update - near-term activity


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Development update - including long-term

pipeline


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Development update - including long-term

pipeline (6 wind bases)


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Location of 6 wind power bases (over

10 GW of each)


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Off-shore wind development status

----34 3 MW turbine installed in Shanghai


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Current wind power policies

Feed in tariff in 4 regions with each of

them 0.51, 0.54, 0.58 and 0.61/kWh with alocal special support

VAT deduction of equipment cost (usuallyit is 17% of total investment

Income tax for 2 year free and 4 years half(normally it is 25% of net income)


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Wind tariff in china


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Wind tariff in china


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Cheaper manufacture in China


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Future potential

Fl i l RPS f l d i f


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Floor in place - RPS - powerful driver of

sector but other factors at work


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Major suppliers in China

Gold WindXin Jiang Urumchi Sinovel WindLiao Ning Da Lian

Dong Fang ElectricSi Chuan Mian ZhuUnited Power

(Guodian and others) Ming Yang ElectricGuang Dong Zhong Shan Hara XEMC Wind PowerHu Nan Xiang Tan

Chong Qing Wind Power EquipmentChong Qing) Shanghai ElectricShanghai

Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating EngineeringZhe Jiang Hang Zhou CRE WindLiao Ning Sheng Yang Harbin PowerHe Long Jiang Harbin

Gamesa VestasGESuzlonRE PowerAccionaNordex

SKFFAGLMXREB

Do

mesticInvestment

For

eign

Investment

There are currently more than 40 wind turbine generator manufacturers in China, including 4 foreign-invested enterprises , 7 joint-venture companies and over 20 domestic manufacturers.


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Top 10 of the manufactures

Off-shore wind development potential in China..


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25

p p

Xinjiang

Tibet

Qinghai

Yunnan

Guangxi Guangdong Fujian

Jiangxi

Zhejiang

Huizhou

Hubei

Henan

Shanxi

Inner Mongolia

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Anhui

ShandongGansu

Shanxi

Jiangsu

Sichuan

Liaoning

Chongqing

Hebei

Hunan

BEIJING

Inter Tidal

Offshore

Medium-Deep

Offshore

Scale-up Onshore WindBases Northeast and Northwest (Gansu,

Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia)

Wind speed >8.0 m/s

Pilot Intertidal Offshore

Equivalent to Tantu wind speeds perhaps 6.0-7.0 m/s

Mostly Jiangsu, Shanghai andShandong coast

Initiate Medium-Deep WaterOffshore Higher wind speeds than inter-tidal

area but very limitedmeasurements

Fujian, Zhejiang, Guandong,Shandong, Jiangsu and Shangha

Dabancheng

Yumen Huitengxile

Baicheng

Zhangbei

Distinguishing the three main resource types is important


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26

Distinguishing the three main resource types is important

Onshore Wind

Highest wind speeds

Lowest cost

Extensive local experience

High potential in China

Measures to improve capacityfactor are key to cost efficiency.

No global experience on planned4-10 GW-scale wind bases

Serious wake issue with largescale installations

Grid planning and micro-siting ofturbines key to success.

Offshore Intertidal

Muddy tidal flat area

Potential attractive from a costperspective

Virtually no internationalexperience in constructing wind-farms on tidal flats.

Potentially quite attractive givenproximity to load centers reducing transmission costs

Foundation construction andturbine erection methods have to

be developed to minimize costs.

Offshore Medium to Deep Water

Likely to be most expensive (at

least twice the price of on-shore)

Significant internationalexperience to develop upon.

High costs of construction andmaintenance large capacity

wind turbine (> 3 MW) will reducecosts.

Uncertainties/risks of foundationconstruction

Typhoon risk may be high in

south China


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Special case in Jiangsu


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Special case in Jiangsu


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Future projection

About 4 projects to be announced for biddingwith 200-300 MW of total installation about1000 MW

Mainly in the inter-tidal area, such as Jiangsu,

which with about 8 to 10 GW of inter-tidalwind power potential

Followed by Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong,

Fujian and Guangdong area, with total ofinstallation by 2020 will be about 10 GW ormore


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Lessons to be leant

Localization and market scale are the key measures forreducing the cost

Turbines price down to 5000 RMB Yuan in 2009 from 7000 RMBYuan in 2007

Market scale from 50 MW in early 2000 to about 14 GW by 2009

International cooperation is very importation both forinnovation and quality control

All most of the large manufactures come to China already,including Vestas and GW

GW and other have set up their R&D center in China


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Thank You!

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2.1. china wind market is booming by l. junfeng

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