20th march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

March 20, 2015


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EU Imports 130,102 Tons of Rice from Asian

LDCs in First Six Months of 2014-15, Up 3%

from Last Year

Mar 19, 2015

The European Union's (EU) rice imports, including milled and semi-milled, from the Least

Developed Countries (LDCs) of Asia such as Cambodia and Myanmar under the Everything But

Arms (EBA) Agreement have reached around 130,102 tons in the first six months of the crop

year 2014-15 (September 2014 - August 2015), up about 3% from around 126,502 tons imported

during the same period last year, according to data from the European Commission (EC).

The EC data shows that imports from Cambodia (which account for about 78% of total imports

from Asian LDCs in September 2014 – February 2015) declined about 11% to around 102,084

tons from around 115,219 tons during the same period last year. On the other hand, rice imports


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from Myanmar (which account for about 19% of total imports from Asian LDCs in September

2014 – January 2015) increased over three times to around 25,350 tons from around 8,804 tons

during the same period last year.

Under the EBA Agreement, the EU imports rice from the LDCs at zero-percent duty. It was

basically aimed to raise incomes and living standards of farmers in the LDCs. Rice imports

(milled equivalent) from the Asian LDCs mostly Cambodia and Myanmar) increased about forty

times to around 402,000 tons in MY 2013-14 from just 10,000 tons in MY 2008-09, according to

the new Chairman of Copa-Cogeca (The united voice of farmers and their co-operatives in the

European Union) Rice Working Party.

Italy, the EU’s main rice producer, has been expressing concern that the competitiveness of

Italian rice has been declining significantly due to an increase in imports from EBA countries.

The Italian government and the Ente Nazionale Risi (National Agency for Rice) have been

urging the EU to adopt a safeguard clause to curtail imports from EBA countries.

Global Rice Quotes

March 19th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 400-410 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↓

India 5% broken 390-400 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 580-590 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 370-380 ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 340-350 ↔


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Pakistan 25% broken 310-320 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 360-370 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 385-395 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 890-900 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 455-465 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 790-800 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315 ↓

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 380-390 ↔


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Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Italian Paddy Rice Quotes Mixed

Mar 19, 2015

A general rebalance of paddy quotations is taking place on Italian market, according to local

sources.. Prices are still elevated compared to the same period last year.

Below are farm gate paddy quotations supplied by Milan Grain Exchange, as of March 17:

Arborio-Volano rice was shown at 705-735 euros (about $743-774) per ton, down from 715-745

euros (about $ 753-785) per ton one week prior..

Balilla paddy prices are firm at 370-385 euros (about $390-405) per ton, unchanged from the

prior week.

Lido and similar paddy varieties are again unchanged at 360-375 euros (about $379-395) per ton.

Padano-Argo is shown at 565-665 euros (about $595-701) per ton, unchanged from the prior

week.Vialone Nano quotes seem to be recovering from a recent downtrend.. On March 17 it was

shown at 785-835 euros (about $ 827-880), up from 770-820 euros (about $ 811-864) per ton of

March 10..

Thaibonnet and similar Indica varieties are firm at 328-338 euros (about $345-356) per ton on

both weeks; Sant'Andrea is quoted 570-620 euros (about $ 601-653) per ton, unchanged from the

prior week; Ariete and similar varieties received no quotations in the last two weeks.

Carnaroli advanced to 715-745 euros (about $753-785) per ton, up from 705-735 euros (about

$743-774) per ton shown a week prior.

Baldo paddy prices were firm at 575-625 euros (about $606-659) per ton, unchanged from the

prior week.

Roma is firm at 590-620 euros (about $622-653) per ton, unchanged from the prior month.


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Selenio declined to 380-405 euros (about $400-427) per ton on March 17 from 395-420 euros

(about $416-442) per ton a week prior.

Low Domestic Prices Have Led to a decline in

SBS Rice Imports in JFY2014, Says USDA

Post

Mar 19, 2015

USDA Post reports that due to low domestic prices in 2014, Japan's food service industry, which

normally uses imported rice, has shifted to domestic rice and consecutively only 11,506 tons of

rice was contracted in the eight Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) tenders JF2014 (April 2014 -

March 2105). As of March 3, 2015, eight Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) tenders and thirteen

Ordinary Minimum Access (OMA) tenders had been held in JFY2014. Last month, the Post

reported that Japan may not import the targeted 100,000 tons under the SBS tenders due to

declining local prices. The SBS rice goes to retailers and foodservice users and is consumed as

table rice.

A bumper harvest in 2014 and high level of stocks from previous years have led to a 16% y/y

decline in prices. In order to avert further price falls, the Rice Stable Supply Support

Organization, a private group consisting of producers and wholesalers, has decided to hold

200,000 tons of table rice without entering the market until the price recovers by bearing their

storage costs.


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The USDA Post has estimated Japan to import around 700,000 tons of rice in 2015, up about 7%

from an estimated 650,000 tons in 2014 due to an expected decline in production.

Based on production data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the

Post reports that the 2014 rice production declined about 1.2% to around 7.583 million tons from

around 7.676 million tons in 2013. The decline is attributed to a decline in the planting area by

about 1.5% y/y to around 1.575 million hectares. Declining prices in 2014 are said to have

discouraged plantings. The Post reports that weak prices are expected to continue in 2015 as well

discouraging 2015 planting.

The Post reports that per capita consumption of table rice in Japan has been declining but that for

feed has been increasing. Per capita consumption of table rice is expected to decline to about

56.1 kilograms in 2015, which is less than half of about 11.3 kilograms in 1962. The government

has been incentivizing the conversion from production of rice for food to production for feed.

Feed production increased about 55% to around 178,000 tons in 2014 from around 115,000 tons

in 2013. Most of the OMA rice is used for production of feed.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Mar 19, 2015

Rain is expected across the Yangtze valley and western south China this week, which will

favour early rice crop growth there.

A few isolated showers are expected across north-western Pakistan this week.

Weather is expected to remain dry in India and Bangladesh this week.

In Indonesia, rain is expected across western Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Kalimantan, East

Malaysia, Sulawesi, and Java this week.

Rain is expected across central Thailand this week, which will maintain moisture for second

season rice growth.

Light rain is expected across northern Vietnam this week.

In the Philippines, rain showers are expected across north-eastern Luzon this week.

Rain is expected across northern and eastern portions of the centre-south Brazil and across

northeast Brazil this week, which could slow harvesting there.


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A few light showers are expected in north-western Argentina this week.

In the U.S., rain is expected across the Coastal Bend and southern Delta this week. Rice planting

will begin in April.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Give Back a Portion of

Yesterday's Gains but Close Far from Session

Low

Mar 19, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at

$10.925 per cwt (about $241 per ton). Rough rice futures failed to find follow-through buying

interest following yesterday’s nearly 50 cent per cwt (about $11 per ton) rally. Prices pulled back

overnight and fell further upon the opening of floor trading this morning. However, the market

did manage to close well off of session lows and has maintained a good portion of gains earned

yesterday. Despite the day’s losses, traders see a positive tilt to the market and expectations are

for higher prices.

The other grains finished mostly lower, with only wheat managing to close higher on support

from weather concerns; Soybeans closed about 1.1% higher at $9.6500 per bushel; wheat

finished about 1.4% higher at $5.1075 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% higher at

$3.7475 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on Thursday as investors weighed the

Federal Reserve statement that indicated a rate hike would come gradually. Only the Nasdaq

traded higher. The Dow Jones industrial average fell by as much as 128 points before paring

losses and the S&P edged lower, giving back some of their major gains from Wednesday

following dovish Fed news.

The U.S. Federal Reserve removed "patient" from its statement on Wednesday, as most analysts

expected, but lowered its December rate outlook and cut economic forecasts. The U.S. 10-year

note yield held below 2%. The U.S. dollar recovered some of its recent losses. Crude oil fell

more than 3% after the Kuwaiti finance minister said OPEC had no choice but to keep

production steady. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly to 291,000 for the week ended March 14.

The national current account deficit sharply widened in the fourth quarter to the largest level

since 2012. The Philly Fed index showed a modest increase in manufacturing in March. Leading

indicators rose 0.2%, in-line with estimates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 117


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points, or 0.66%, at 17,958. The S&P 500 fell 12 points, or 0.58%, to 2,087, with energy leading

nine sectors lower and health care the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded up 5 points, or 0.10%,

to 4,987. Gold is trading about 1.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.9% lower, and the

U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.8% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Wednesday, there were 700 contracts traded, up from 227 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 149 contracts to

8,702.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Slip as

Exports Disappoint; Dollar Regains Most of

Its Losses

Mar 19, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker after long grain export sales and shipment figures

disappointed traders coupled with fact that the dollar regained most of its loses from

yesterday.Analysts note that export sales figures will have to increase significantly if this rally is

to be sustainable and that will be unlikely unless Venezuela and/or Iraq show interest in U.S.

origin.

In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on

March 12, totaled 76,500 tons, which was 7% lower than last week but 11% lower than the prior

4-week average.

Increases were reported for the following destinations including 36,200 tons to Japan, 22,000

tons to South Korea, 9,000 tons to Saudi Arabia, 2,100 tons to unknown destinations, and 2,000

tons to Colombia.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 41,800 tons, which was 21% lower than last week and 15% lower

than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included 17,000 tons to Mexico, 13,100

tons to Japan, 3,600 tons to Saudi Arabia, 2,400 tons to Canada, and 2,300 tons to Jordan.


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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Sharply Lower Overnight as

Market Reevaluates Yesterday’s Move

Mar 19, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently listed 28.5 cents per cwt (about $6 per

ton) lower at $10.760 per cwt (about $237 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other

grains are seen trading higher this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% higher,

wheat is listed about 0.4% higher and corn is currently noted unchanged.U.S. stock index futures

indicated a flat to lower open on Thursday, after closing sharply higher Wednesday following a

dovish statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which indicated that rate hike may come later

rather than sooner. The Fed dropped the word "patient" from its March meeting statement, a

subtle indication that the era of zero interest rates could end in the coming months.

However, the U.S. central bank was seen as broadly dovish, with the Federal Open Market

Committee lowering its December rate outlook by about 50 basis points. Weekly jobless claims

rose slightly to 291,000 for the week ended March 14. The national current account deficit

sharply widened in the fourth quarter to the largest level since 2012. Data expected on Thursday

include the Philly Fed's business outlook index at 10.00 a.m. ET, along with the Conference

Board's Leading Indicator for February. Across the Atlantic, European equities traded higher

after the Fed's dovish comments, with all European indices and sectors except the German DAX

trading in positive territory. Gold is currently trading about 1.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading

about 3.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher at 8:00am Chicago

time.

Pakistan FY 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production

Estimated to Decline 19% y/y to 8.437

Million Tons

Mar 19, 2015


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In the February Crop Monitoring System Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan

(SUPARCO) and UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO have estimated Pakistan FY

2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production to decline about 19% to around 8.437 million tons

(around 5.65 million tons, basis milled) from around 10.04 million tons (around 6.72 million

tons, basis milled) produced last year.

The decline is attributed to floods that hit the Punjab state in the month of August 2014 having

damaged around 116,700 hectares of paddy fields. Over 217,000 tons of paddy is said to be lost

in the Punjab state. The government of Punjab has announced a compensation of Rs.16 billion

(around $159 million) to the flood-affected communities.SUPARCO is estimating FY 2014-15

paddy rice acreage at around 3.285 million hectares and yield at around 2.568 tons per hectare.

According to SUPARCO, January received slight rain after dry periods in November and

December, and received heavy rains in February, The weather was cool in February and is

expected to be favorable (due to expected heavy rains) for the cultivation of ongoing rabi crops

such as wheat.

Paddy prices of both non-basmati and basmati, which began to decline since November

2014 continued to decline in January due to increased supplies from the just completed harvests.

Prices of basmati dropped to around Rs.1,500 - 1,600 per 40 kilograms (around $368 - $392 per

ton) in February from around Rs.4,500 - 4,800 per 40 kilograms (around $1,121 - $1,196 per ton)


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in the beginning of November. Prices of non-basmati prices declined to around Rs.700 - 800 per

40 kilograms (around $172 - $196 per ton) in February from Rs.900 - Rs.1,000 per 40 kilograms

(around $224 - $249 per ton) in November 2014.

Meanwhile, experts have been urging the government to take appropriate measures to increase

fertilizer production to around 5 million tons from the existing 3.1 million tons. Pakistan needs

about 4 million tons of fertilizer yearly for paddy cultivation. production reaches 5 million tons.

USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to decline

about 3% to around 6.5 million tons (around 9.75 million tons, basis paddy) from around 6.7

million tons (around 10.05 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14.

Vietnam Exports About 443,639 Tons Rice

During January 1 – March 10, 2015

Mar 19, 2015


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Vietnam exported about 443,639 tons of rice in January 1 - March 10, 2014, down about 64%

from about 1.22 million tons of rice exported in in first three months of 2014, according to data

from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at

about $452 per ton (FOB), up about 4% per ton from same time last year.During March 1-10,

2015, Vietnam exported about 22,437 tons of rice, down about 96% from about 583,294 tons

rice exported in full month of March 2014, and down about 89% from about 200,814 tons rice

exported in full month of February 2015. Average export prices in so far in March stands at

about $427 per ton, down about 2.7% from a year ago, and down about 6% per ton from a month

ago.

Thai Court to Prosecute Former Prime

Minister in Rice Pledging Case

Mar 19, 2015

Thailand's Supreme Court has decided to prosecute the former Prime Minister Yingluck

Shinawatra for her alleged role in encouraging corruption in the rice pledging scheme introduced

by her government in October 2011, according to Bloomberg.The Supreme Court's Criminal

Division for Holders of Political Positions will hear the case against the former PM. According

to local sources, a panel of nine judges have decided to accept the case against the former PM


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and has scheduled the first hearing on May 19, 2015.Ms.Yingluck has been charged with

dereliction of duty and with abuse of authority under Section 157 of the Criminal Code and

Section 123/1 of the 1999 Counter Corruption Act, according to local sources. She reiterated her

innocence in the case after the decision was announced.The former PM was impeached by the

Thai National Legislative Assembly on January 23, 2015 banning her from active politics for

five years. If found guilty in the present case, she may have to face a ten-year jail term,

according to local sources.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has also advised the government to file a

civil suit against the former PM to recover the money lost in the rice program, which the Finance

Ministry claims to be about 600 billion baht (around $18 billion).The Yingluck-led government

promised to buy paddy from farmers at nearly 50% above market prices under the controversial

rice pledging scheme. While Yingluck claims the scheme was aimed at reducing inequality

among farmers by boosting rural incomes, many opined that it was ill-conceived, encouraged

corruption and was a form of vote-buying. The scheme is being blamed to have pushed up

market prices and impacted Thai rice exports severely.

Water Rationing Measures in Taiwan May

Reduce 2015 Rice Production by 10% y/y but

No Increase in Imports Seen, Says USDA

Post

Mar 19, 2015

USDA Post reports that water rationing measures in Taiwan due to extended drought conditions

are likely to reduce 2015 rice production by about 10% or about 110,000 tons over last year.

USDA forecasts Taiwan's 2015 milled rice production at around 1.1 million tons, down about

9.6% from an estimated 1.22 million tons in 2014.

However, the Post says rice imports are unlikely to increase due to sufficient stocks from

increased harvests in recent years. It expects no changes in 2015 country specific quota (CSQ)

allotments and tender schedules. According to Taiwan’s WTO accession agreement, Taiwan's

rice TRQ (tariff rate quota) is 126,000 tons (milled basis). Of this the U.S. country specific quota

(CSQ) allocation is 56,000 tons. The Post estimates Taiwan's 2015 rice imports at around

134,000 tons.


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Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) has decided to implement water rationing

measures in response to drought conditions in three stages. First stage began on December 26,

2014 and has reportedly reduced water supply to about 44,000 hectares of annual agricultural

area. Of this 23,000 hectares are under rice cultivation. The Post estimates Taiwan 2015 rice

acreage at around 248,000 hectares, down about 8.5% from an estimated 271,000 last year.The

Post reports that rice farmers would be provided with additional subsidies to the extent of

about NTD $80,000 (around $2,545) per hectare to substitute for losses from decline in

production. However, amount of compensation depends on land use, says USDA Post.While

agriculture accounts of 70% of total annual water usage in Taiwan, industry and households

account for 10% and 20% respectively.


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Vietnam Rice sellers Lower Some of Their

quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged

Today

Mar 19, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $10

per ton and $5 per ton to around $355-$365 per ton and around $305-$315 per ton, respectively,

today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $10 per ton from yesterday.

India 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on

Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$360 - $370, about a $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320

per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, on par with Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around

$380 - $390 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $15 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, down about $5 per

ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5

per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

20th march,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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