2030 inspire students to build it better 20141230 v1
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome to the new age ofplatform technologies and
smarter service systemsfor every sector of
business and society
nested, networks systems
2
What are the trends?
Digital ImmigrantBorn: 1988
Graduated College: 2012
Digital NativeBorn: 2012
Enters College: 2030
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2030 Transportation: Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:
Test “Driver”
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2030 Water
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2030 Manufacturing
Ryan Chin:
Urban Mobility
Baxter: Building the Future
Maker-Bot: Replicator 2
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2030 Energy
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2030 Buildings: Recycled to be stronger, safer, cleaner
China Broad Group:
30 Stories in 15 Days
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2030 ICT
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Example: Leading Through Connections with…Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy !
Assisted in the development of the Open
Advancement of Question-Answering
Initiative (OAQA) architecture and
methodology
Pioneered an online natural language
question answering system called START,
which provided the ability to answer questions
with high precision using information from
semi-structured and structured information
repositories
Worked to extend the
capabilities of Watson, with a
focus on extensive common
sense knowledge
Focused on large-scale
information extraction,
parsing, and knowledge
inference technologies
Worked on a visualization component to
visually explain to external audiences the
massively parallel analytics skills it takes for
the Watson computing system to break down
a question and formulate a rapid and accurate
response to rival a human brain
Provided technological advancement
enabling a computing system to remember the
full interaction, rather than treating every
question like the first one - simulating a real
dialogue
Explored advanced machine learning
techniques along with rich text
representations based on syntactic and
semantic structures for the Watson’s
optimizationWorked on information
retrieval and text search
technologies
http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html
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2030 Retail & Hospitality
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2030 Finance & Business
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2030 Health
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2030 Education: Watch one, do one, teach one…
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2030 Government
Four measures
Innovativeness
Equity
– Improve
weakest
link
Sustainability
Resiliency
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Competitive Parity – Achieved.
The NFL has spent the last two decades touting its parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday). But this year, parity has truly run wild.
… here's the wackiest thing: Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3. The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation…
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2030 and Beyond…. Government, Health, Education, Finance, etc.
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What’s UP at IBM?
Platforms for Entrepreneurs
• Smarter Cities Intelligent Operations Center Platform• IBM Watson & Cognitive Computing Platform• IBM UP helping university startups to scale-up (growth)
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Those in-the-know say, “IBM is helping to build a Smarter Planet…”
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Smarter Planet = Smarter “Service” Systems
INSTRUMENTED
We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.
INTERCONNECTED
People, systems and objects can communicate and
interact with each other in entirely new ways.
INTELLIGENT
We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results
by predicting and optimizing for future events.
WORKFORCE
PRODUCTS
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
IT NETWORKS
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Land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities
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Smarter Service Systems Workshop
National Science FoundationA feature of a service system is the participation and cooperation of the customer in the service and its delivery. A service system then requires an integration of knowledge and technologies from a range of disciplines, often including engineering, computer science, social science, behavioral science, and cognitive science, paired with market knowledge to increase its social benefit.
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
Brief History of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds1981 – Japanese 5th Generation1988 – Expert Systems Peak1990 – AI Winter1997 – Deep Blue1997 – 2011 Real-World2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute2014 – Watson Business Unit2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
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Vision: Augment & Scale Expertise
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Cognitive Assistants - Occupations
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Biochemist/Biochemical Engineer
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Occupations = Many Tasks
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Watson Discovery Advisor
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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
User Models
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New Era of Computing:Cognitive Technologies & Componentry
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Natural Language– Reasoning, Logic & Planning
– Symbolic Processing
– Natural Language Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Knowledge Representations
– Domain-Specific Ontologies
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Reasoning
– Von Neumann Componentry
– OpenPOWER Systems
Pattern Recognition– Recognition, Sensing & Acting
– Pattern Processing
– Image & Speech Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Pattern Representations
– Domain-Specific Neural Nets
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Perception
– Neuromorphic Componentry
– TrueNorth & Corelets Systems
AI for IA:
Intelligence
Augmentation
Cognitive Systems
(“Cogs”) that boost
learning,
discovery,
engagement,
transformation, and
long-range planning.
Cognition as a Service
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Watson Platform on BlueMix
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Cognitive Systems Institute
Engage with Universities on
Research, including Watson
Platform Next (“WatsNext?”)
Build a pipeline of university
skills by working with Faculty
on courses and curricula
Actively recruit best students
with skills that align to our
business needs
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IBM University Programs
Academic Industry PartnershipsResearch, Readiness, Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility, Regions
Jim Spohrer, DirectorIBM University Programs (IBM UP)
http://www.ibm.com/universityNovember 20, 2014
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Holistic Service Systems (HSS)
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http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Nation
State/Province
City/Region
University
College
K-12
Cultural &
Conference
Hotels
Hospital
Medical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits:Business Entrepreneurship
Non-profitsSocial Entrepreneurship
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”
“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”
“Multilevel nested, networked holistic service systems (HSS) that provision whole service (WS) tothe people inside them. WS includes flows (transportation, water, food, energy, communications), development (buildings,retail ,finance, health,
education), and governance (city, state, nation). ”
University Four Missions1. Learning2. Discovery3. Engagement4. Convergence
Universities Matter #1
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Japan
ChinaGermany
France
United KingdomItaly
Russia SpainBrazil
CanadaIndia
Mexico AustraliaSouth KoreaNetherlandsTurkey
Sweden
y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% g
lob
al G
DP
% top 500 universities
Nation’s % WW GDP and % Top 500 Universities (2009 Data)
Universities Matter #2
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…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
Universities Matter #3
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“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
IBM University Programs 6 R’s• Research (Collaborate)
• Readiness (Skills)
• Recruiting (Jobs)
• Revenue (Solutions)
• Responsibility (Volunteers)
• Regions (Smarter Cities, Startups & Workforce)
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WORKFORCE
PRODUCTS
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
Partnering for Skills
Marisa Viveros,VP Cybersecurity
Innovation
Dianne Fodell,Program ExecSkills for 21st C
Nanci Knight,AcademicInitiatives(Western Region)
T-Shaped People:Next Generation Adaptive Innovators
for a Smarter Planet
Many disciplinesMany sectors
Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)
Deep
in o
ne se
ctor
Deep
in o
ne re
gion
/cultu
re
Deep
in o
ne d
isciplin
e
“No one knows everything, but a well-chosen team of T-shapes has empathy to learn anything.”
IBM University Programs
http://tsummit2014.org
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Educating Service InnovatorsJim Spohrer, IBM
AHFE Human Side of Service Engineering
Krakow, PolandJuly 22, 2014
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This presentation with speaker notes is available for download at: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/ahfe-hsse-20140722-v3
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Economic Shift in National Economies
Daryl Pereira/Sunnyvale/IBM@IBMUS,
42%643331.4Germany
37%2611632.1Bangladesh
19%2010701.6Nigeria
45%672852.2Japan
64%6921102.4Russia
61%6614203.0Brazil
34%3916453.5Indonesia
23%762315.1U.S.
35%23176014.4India
142%29224925.7China
40yr Service
Growth
S
%
G
%
A
%
Labor
% WW
Nation
World’s Large Labor ForcesA = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Service
2010
2010
NationMaster.com, International Labor Organization
Note: Pakistan, Vietnam, and Mexico now larger LF than Germany
US shift to service jobs
(A) Agriculture:Value from
harvesting nature
(G) Goods:Value from
making products
(S) Service:Value from
IT augmented workers in smarter systems
that create benefits for customers
and sustainably improve quality of life.
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Growth of Service Revenue at IBM
SOFTWARE
SYSTEMS
(AND FINANCING)
SERVICES
2010 Pretax Income Mix Revenue Growth by Segment
0
20
40
60
80
100
1982
1988
1994
1998
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Reven
ue (
$B
)
Services
Software
Systems
44%
17%
39%
IBM Annual Reports
What do IBM Service Professionals Do? Run IT & enterprise systems for customers,
help Transform customer processes to best practices, and Innovate with customers.
Professionals Associations & T-Shapes
• ISSIP
• INFORMS
• IEEE
• ACM
• AMA (Marketing)
• AIS
• POMS
• TSIA
For more complete list of 24 see: http://service-science.info/archives/1982
http://tsummit2014.org
• Founded Jul 2012 by IBM, Cisco, HP, and several universities as an umberella association to help institutions and individuals to grow and be successful in our global service economy
• ISSIP members representing industry, research, academia, students, NGOs, and government, collaborate to promote service innovation and service innovators in research, education, practice, policy making, and professional development.
• Special Interest Groups collaborate to produce papers, workshops, webinars, reports, surveys; current SIGs:
– Research and Education, – Service Innovation Framework in Practice, – SDN,– Service UE,– IoT (currently recruiting SIG Chair)), – Other of interest to members: Cognitive Computing, Big Data and analytics. Health IT, ….
• ISSIP Ambassadors connect ISSIP to over 30 professional association and research centers globally to sponsor conferences and awards
• ISSIP-BEP Service Innovation Books Series: 7 published, 12 in the pipeline
• Grand Challenges, members collaborate to solve pressing problems in business and society
Mission: to
“promote service
innovations for our
interconnected
world”.
Please join us!
www.issip.org
Journals
For more see: http://service-science.info/archives/2634
Paul Maglio, Editor Mary Jo Bitner, Editor
Readings & Textbooks
See http://service-science.info/archives/2708 http://service-science.info/archives/1931
Recent Report, Funding, etc.
http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop/
http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2014/nsf14610/nsf14610.htm
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/NSF-Industry-Academe-Enabling-Smart-5109582
http://web.mit.edu/mitssrc/nsf/index.html
ISSIP.orgProfessional Development for Service Innovators
• 2015 Conferences– HICSS, Honolulu, HI, Jan 5-8– T Summit, E Lansing, MI, Mar 16-17– ICSERV,San Jose, CA July 6-8– Frontiers, San Jose, CA July 9-12– AHFE HSSE,Las Vegas, NV July 23-27
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Conferences• HICSS
– January 5-8, Hawaii
• ICSERV, July– July 7-9, San Jose
• Frontiers, July– July 9-12, San Jose– Deadline Nov 20th
• AHFE HSSE, July– July 26-30, Las Vegas
IBM University Programs
From I to T-shape and Beyond!IBMers with more depth and breadth for a Smarter Planet
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Many disciplinesMany sectors
Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)
Deep
in o
ne se
ctor
Deep
in o
ne re
gion
/cultu
re
Deep
in o
ne d
isciplin
e
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Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities
transportation &
supply chain water &
waste
food &
productsenergy
& electricitybuilding &
construction
healthcare
& family
retail &
hospitality banking
& finance
ICT &
cloudeducation
&work
city
securestate
scale
nation
laws
social sciences
behavioral sciences
management sciences
political sciences
learning sciences
cognitive sciences
system sciences
information sciences
organization sciences
decision sciences
run professions
transform professions
innovate professions
e.g., econ & law
e.g., marketing
e.g., operations
e.g., public policy
e.g., game theory
and strategy
e.g., psychology
e.g., industrial eng.
e.g., computer sci
e.g., knowledge mgmt
e.g., stats & design
e.g., knowledge worker
e.g., consultant
e.g., entrepreneur
sta
ke
hold
ers
Customer
Provider
Authority
Competitors
reso
urc
es
People
Technology
Information
Organizations
ch
an
ge
History(Data Analytics)
Future(Roadmap)
va
lue
Run
Transform
(Copy)
Innovate
(Invent)
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Realize Value (To-Be)
disciplines
systems
© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)
What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?
Economics & Law
Design/
Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
OperationsComputer Science/
Artificial Intelligence
Marketing
“a service system is a
human-made system to improve
provider-customer interactions
and value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resource
access via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,
one piece at a time.”
“service science is
the transdisciplinary study of
service systems &
value-cocreation”
The ABC’s:
The provider (A)
and a customer (B)
transform a target (C)
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California Human Development Report 2011:Measuring quality-of-life…. h
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What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)
1. Transportation & supply chain
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment
3. Food & products manufacturing
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
0/19/02/7/4
2/1/1
7/6/1
1/1/0
5/17/27
1/0/2
24/24/1
2/20/24
7/10/3
5/2/2
3/3/1
0/0/0
1/2/2
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
* = US Labor % in 2009.
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
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The New Normal: Smarter Systems
Computational System
Smarter Technology
Requires investment roadmap
Service Systems: Stakeholders & Resources
1. People
2. Technology
3. Shared Information
4. Organizations
connected by win-win value propositions
Smarter Buildings, Universities, Cities
Requires investment roadmap
IBM University Programs On Campus IBMers
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Up-SkillCycle
University-Region1
University-Region2
= New Venture
= Acquisition
= High-GrowthAcquisition/New IBM BU(Growing)
= High-Productivity/Mature IBM BU(Shrinking)
= IBMer moving from
mature BU to acquisition
= IBMer moving into
On Campus IBMer role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills
= Graduates with
Smarter Planet skills
IBM
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A Framework for Global Civil Society
Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to
build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200
years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years
has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and
sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators,
incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and
understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil
society.
– John Sexton, President NYU
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Thank-You! Questions?
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer
Innovation Champion &
Director, IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM
“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org
“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay
“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge
“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov
“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
What is more important than this?
• “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”– Stephen Jay Kline (1922-1997)
– From the dedication of “The Conceptual Foundations of Multidisciplinary Thinking,” Stanford University Press, 1995.
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Service Innovators
ISSIP = International
Society of
Service Innovation
Professionals
T-shaped Professionals
– Depth
– Breadth
Register at:
– ISSIP.org
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IBM University Programs
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IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe
Acquisitions contribute significantly to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in last decade
2012 Financials
Revenue - $ 104.5B
Net Income - $ 17.6B
EPS - $ 15.25 (10 yrs of EPS d/digit growth)
Net Cash - $18.2B
24% of IBMs revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 7% ( @cc) in 2012
Number 1 in patent generation for 20 consecutive years ; 6,478 US patents awarded in 2012
More than 40% of IBMs workforce does business away from an office
5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractivesurgical techniques
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011
New Era in IBM’s Leadership
IBM Growth Initiatives
IBM has ~425,000 employees worldwide
Jim Spohrer, IBM
• Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is IBM Innovation Champion and Director of IBM University Programs (IBM UP). Jim works to align IBM and universities globally for innovation amplification. Previously, Jim helped to found IBM’s first Service Research group, the global Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. During the 1990’s while at Apple Computer, he was awarded Apple’s Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale, and BS in Physics from MIT. His current research priorities include applying service science to study nested, networked holistic service systems, such as cities and universities. He has more than ninety publications and been awarded nine patents.
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Measuring Impact
SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR
• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better
• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures
• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)
• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)
– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities
– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications
– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations
– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions
– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)
Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)
– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)
– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)
– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)
– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)
– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)
© 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)73
Who I am (http://www.service-science.info/archives/2233)
Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)
– 6 R’s: Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility, Regions
– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)
– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs
Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards
– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications
– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines
• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)
– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)
– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)
• I advocate for ISSIP (“one of the founding fathers”)
• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010) Other background (late 90’s and before)
– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley
– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)
– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)
– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)
IBM University Programs
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