APRIL

2020VISION

GLOBAL RISK PERCEPTIONS

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Preface Global Allocation of Risk Perception: Sept 2019 to March 2020

Reduced Concerns as a Result of COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 is driving three major changes in how people perceive risks. The pandemic is:

1) Monopolizing attention, leaving individuals with less bandwidth for concern about other issues. Notably, all three of the TACTIX Risk Indices have decreased with the spread of the outbreak (Figure 1).

2) Enhancing the perceived benefits of some products, such as vaccines and plastics. This has, temporarily, reduced individuals’ risk perceptions of them (Figures 2, 3 and 4).

3) Aggravating public concern towards certain products, such as PFAS and processed foods (Figures 5, 6 and 7).

One of the easiest traps to fall into is assuming that COVID-19 ‘changes everything’ and that all these changes are here to stay. Many of the risk perceptions that are currently depressed will return. As for the positive halo that some products are currently benefiting from: this too shall pass.

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Figure 1. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, risk perception towards other issues has decreased. Across the thirteen issues we are tracking, average severity, mobilization, and personalization scores dropped significantly in February and March.

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Measure Behaviors, not AttitudesWhy do we not poll people like many other risk reports do? Because polling asks people what they think they are concerned about.

Problem one: people often do not know what they are concerned about.

Problem two: they are unable to answer why they are concerned about something.

Ultimately, we want to anticipate the public’s behaviors. And so, it only makes sense, to build risk indices based on actions - the comments people post on social media, their mobilization, what they search and what they read. Behaviors drive attitudes, not the other way around. So we measure behaviors.

MethodologyUsing Artificial Intelligence

With over two decades managing product defense campaigns, we understand what drives people to feel outrage, fear, or uncertainty towards technologies.

TACTIX’ Risk Indices are measured using a proprietary sentiment analysis algorithm. We built the algorithm specifically to analyze controversial products and practices.

If you are looking for historical data, weekly breakdowns, deeper analysis, or for another issue to be added to the tracker, reach out to us at paul.hillier@tactix.ca.

Proprietary Risk IndicesSeverity Index: measures the percentage for public conversation that is registering as highly concerned.

Personalization Index: measures the percentage of public conversation that is associating the concern with a family member.

Mobilization Index: measures the percentage of public conversation that is calling for a ban, boycott, or political change.

Nature of Concern: measures the percentage of concern that is concentrated on environmental impacts compared against concern that is concentrated on human health impacts.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Risk Perception

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The COVID-19 outbreak is transforming the public’s risk perception towards things they have been concerned about for years.

The past month has seen a seismic shift in the risk perception of vaccines. As the benefits of vaccines are becoming front of mind, positive affect is going up, which in turn drives down risk perception. We are beginning to see a similar phenomenon occurring for plastics. From medical masks to plastic wrapping in the grocery stores, the public is focusing on the role of plastic in keeping food and medical devices sanitary.

To leverage these changes, a brand manager must walk a careful line. Acting too assertively will be seen as opportunistic; however, inaction risks the positive halo wearing off before obtaining a long-term shift in perception.

Brand managers with products facing concerns which are made more severe due to COVID-19 are in a different situation altogether. As an example, groups who use ‘biodiversity’ as a wedge to mobilize against certain technologies are receiving a real boost due to suggestions that biodiversity-loss is a major cause of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Processed foods are also facing increased risk. As many people went into quarantine, they stocked up on long-lasting supplies. Activists who are concerned about processed foods saw this as further evidence of a public being ‘forced’ to eat these foods they see as unhealthy.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Risk Perception

Figure 2. For some products, the COVID-19 outbreak is the first time in a long time that they are being seen in a positive light. Brand managers must carefully work to make these temporary shifts permanent. For others issues, the outbreak is aggravating existing concerns and presents a serious threat.

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COVID-19 and the Food Supply Chain Percieved Risks in the Food SystemGuest Commentary

Figure 3. Concern about pesticides has typically been high in the two weeks following the release of the Environmental Working Groups’ Dirty DozenTM report each springtime. However, over the past five years, that concern has been decreasing. Taking its place is the carbon footprint of food. This year, EWG’s report was largely ignored as the public is too focused on obtaining enough food safely.

For years the food industry has been struggling with cost-intensive product recalls caused by microorganisms and foreign contaminants. Recalls not only cost a lot of money, they also damage the brand and can in some cases lead to business ruin.

Up to now, industry has tended to look at their suppliers as the cause; however, the most frequent cause of contamination lies in the transport of products. Vegetables, salads or fruit are often transported over long distances or across continents in refrigerated containers. Many foodstuffs such as milk, flour, sugar, chocolate, oils and edible fats are transported in tank trucks, tank containers, silo vehicles or IBCs. Often these are cleaned poorly or not at all for cost reasons.

As a result of COVID-19, industry and consumers alike have had to think about preventing contamination like never before. At the international association ENFIT, we have been working on this topic for years and we are seeing a fundamental shift unfolding today. Safe supply chains are critical not only for consumer safety, but consumer confidence. They not only need to be safe, but need to be seen to be safe. Ignoring contamination risks in supply chains is no longer an option.

Hans-Dieter Philipowski, President ENFIT International Association Supply Chain Safety

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How Positive Affect Can Get Masked Percentage of the March Conversation:Mobilization vs Nature of ConcernThe increased visibility of products containing plastics, such as

the now infamous N95 mask, has helped to change how the public perceives some plastics.

In the midst of a pandemic, masks, plastic shields, and gloves are filled with positive affect – we feel good about them. This drives perceived risk towards the product down.

However, affect can cut both ways. When discarded masks or plastic gloves pile up in the parking lots of grocery stores, negative affect swells. This can lead people to see these products as emblematic of the issue they are mobilizing against.

What does mobilization look like during a pandemic? Mobilization against a product, or around an issue, takes on different forms during a pandemic. Online engagement is becoming increasingly more sophisticated. This trend certainly began before the outbreak, has sped up with the end of other forms of activism.

Product managers need to be ready to recalibrate to monitor what mobilization looks like today.

Figure 4. Positive uses of plastics have strongly outweighed negative ones in recent weeks. Mobilization Index scores fell from 22% last month to 17% this month.

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Concern Towards TwelveIssues Went Down - One Went UpYou have heard us say it before: concern is zero-sum. When a person becomes more concerned about one issue (say, a global pandemic), there is less room for them to be concerned about other issues. And twelve of the thirteen issues we track followed that rule. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) did not. The measurement of public concern for PFAS has actually gone up.

Public concern towards PFAS peaked in autumn 2019 (coinciding with the release of the Hollywood film). Those levels of concern have not been repeated; however, it is notable that concern here has increased at a time when all other issues are trending downwards.

Some of the reason behind this trend is easy to trace (e.g. the American comedy program “The Daily Show” took aim at PFAS in early March). Other sources of concern are more difficult to trace, such as false claims online that PFAS exacerbate the symptoms of COVID-19.

A key takeaway for brand managers is that public concern about PFAS still measures low on the personalization index. Most people who are concerned about PFAS do not yet feel personally affected. If personalization grows, the risk will grow exponentially.

This means that a key issue to monitor is not simply allegations of PFAS in water supply, but testing showing trace amounts in individuals’ blood. If this latter story were to gain traction, we would see the personalization score – a key element for driving maximum public concern – increase.

Percentage of the March Conversation:Severity vs Personalization

Figure 5. Severe concern towards PFAS skyrocketed from 17% to 28% in the past month, at the same time as severity of other issues decreased.

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Percentage of Monthly Conversationwith SEVERE concern

Percentage of Monthly Conversationthat is MOBILIZING

Figures 6 and 7. At a time when concern towards other issues are decreasing, concern towards PFAS have increased, largely as a result of linkages to the COVID-19 outbreak.

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Global Risk Communications