2019 - agriexchange.apeda.gov.in · potato production in 2017: 1,105,190 tonnes early warning for...

India’s Export to Other Countries (OD) and Forecast for 2022

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Oman 2281 2807 4086 5209 6494

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nepal 32492 23687 38162 24736 29209

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sri Lanka 9582 13583 5715 11683 5794

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mauritius 2038 3465 3422 2299 3778

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Malaysia 496 1180 1384 2945 2609

Qualitative Analysis

Nepal

Planting Season: Winter cropping season (October - May)

Risks: more prone to viruses, with new diseases and pests identified which attack crops during different seasons

Seasonality:

Seasonal food shortages are quite common in many parts of Nepal as a result of monsoonal influences in

production, poor post‐harvest storage and handling, and weak transport infrastructure and market

integration

Agriculturally lean seasons: July - August and January - March

Mountainous areas especially experience seasonal deterioration in the food security situation between

November and March

Terrorism Index: 5.30 (2017) from 4.39 (2016) - high

Exchange Rate (Forecast) for Q1/2020: USDNPR: 119.965

Facts about Nepal Potato

o Average productivity: 9.89 ton per hectare (low productivity due to disease infestation)

o Major problems faced: Unavailability of quality seeds, lack of fertilizers at right time, shortage of

labor, poor market, lack of technical knowledge on pest management and topographical barriers

o Average amount of seed required: 1391 kg per hectare (lower than recommended by Govt. of

Nepal) - 1500 - 2000 kg per ha

o One rupee spent on production yields 44 paisa of benefit from potato

o The demand of potato in the form of chips, fries and mashed potatoes has widened its scope

o Main geographical areas for potato : Balgung district, Southern Terai at an altitude of 100 m mean

above sea level

Sri Lanka

Planting Season : between August and September (Maha Crops), February and March (Yala Crops)

Harvesting Season: between November and December (Maha Crops), April and May (Yala Crops)

Trends for Potato production: depends on importation of seed potatoes.

Regions for potato production:Nuwara, Eliya, Badulla, Jaffna and Puttalam.

Importers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Maldives 1589 1259 1571 1467 2173

Grown through seed tubers. Seed material alone accounts for about 50-60% of the cost of production.

The cost of production, estimated at around Rs 35.00 – 45.00 per kg, has remained extremely high and

poor yield has eroded the profitability of this crop.

Early Warning for Natural Disasters :

o Floods are the most common hazard experienced in Sri Lanka(Months: May - September).

Western, southern and Sabaragamuwa are most vulnerable.

o Also prone to landslides, lightning strikes, coastal erosion

Inflation Rate : 5.4%

Terrorism Index: 4.05 (moderate)

Exchange Rate (Forecast) for Q1/2020: USDLKR: 194.121; INRLKR: 2.610

Australia

Planting Season: late winter/early spring or late summer/autumn

Potato production in 2017: 1,105,190 tonnes

Early Warning for Disasters: Attack of pathogens on crops, Change in precipitation causing short-run crop

failures, long run production declines.

Potato Trends: Potato tubers are the country's most important horticultural crop, accounting for more

than 40 percent of total vegetable output.

More than 60 percent is processed into frozen potato products and crisps, while around 37 percent is fresh

marketed.

Environmental Factors affecting: Raging fires are expected to flare up as they are feeding off drought -

stricken farmland and bush. The fires have burnt through over 1 million hectares of land in NSW


Terrorism Index: 2.83 (low)

Exchange Rate (Forecast) for Q1/2020: AUDINR = 48.211

Export to New Markets (ND)

ImporterValue imported in 2018 (USD

thousand)

Trade balance 2018 (USD

thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Belgium 470269 -315159 268912 233310 397822 425898 470269


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Netherlands 327497 -79587 276946 269249 310776 319305 327497


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USA 216215 10246 156206 143571 191165 205582 216215


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Spain 213264 -115698 155570 145590 218827 213947 213264


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Germany 198795 134686 196376 163927 223543 202895 198795


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Russia 205403 -189663 363187 233134 98150 205940 205403

Qualitative Analysis

France

Planting Season: Spring (Mar-May)

Yielding Season: Autumn (Sep-Nov)

Early Warning for Natural Disasters:

Rain and Hail Storms in Early June(declared Natural disaster)

Forest Fires occur in Summer Months


Exchange Rate (Forecast) for Q1/2020: EURUSD = 1.0619

Facts about French Potato

o 160 000 hectares of potato production [seed, ware (table and processed for human consumption)

and starch]

o French potato production : 6,5 to 7 million tons

o 1st European exporting country for ware potatoes

o 2nd exporting country in the world for seed potatoes (20 000 hectares in 2016)

o 11th producing country in the world for potato production

Main geographical areas for potato : North Hauts de France, Champagne, Brittany, Centre, Normandy

Netherlands

Planting Season: March end or April (Spring);

Early potatoes planted in February; Potatoes

grown only once a year

Yielding Season: Autumn (Before it’s too wet for

frost)

Early Warning for Natural Disasters:

Rain and Hail Storms in Early

June(declared Natural disaster)

Forest Fires occur in Summer Months


thousand)


thousand)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Italy 150729 -107503 166080 139433 170794 153292 150729

Inflation Rate : 2.7



Spain

Environmental Aspect: Increased desertification, Poor performance of environmental indicators

Terrorism Index : 4.02

Inflation rate: 0.1%

Cultural Aspects:

High Life Expectancy (79 Years for Men, 85 for Women) can be used to export soft edibles

Unemployment on the rise(13.92%), and decrease in consumer spending

Imbalanced rural and urban development (R&D is low)

Weak labor market regulations

Germany

Planting Season: March end or April Exporting Season: Jan

Early Warning for Disasters: Attack of pathogens on crops, Change in precipitation causing short-run crop failures, long run production declines.

Two Summers in a row have caused Germany’s potato supply to dwindle; Last year's yield was Lowest in 28 years

Hail and Strong gusts of wind are expected in the area along with Drought



Environmental Factors affecting: Radiation, Co2 Concentration, precipitation, temperature and Soil conditions esp in Northern Germany

Flood insurance is currently available in Germany to private customers

Global Production of Potatoes

Benefits of Potato

Potatoes help reduce inflammation and constipation A medium potato contains around 164 calories and 30 percent of the recommended daily B6 intake. Health benefits of Potato

Bone Health: The iron, phosphorous, calcium, magnesium and zinc in potatoes all help the body to build and

maintain bone structure and strength. Phosphorus and calcium are both important in bone structure, but it

is essential in balance the two minerals for proper bone mineralization. Too much phosphorus and too little

calcium result in bone loss and contribute to osteoporosis.

Countries with highest population suffering from osteoporosis: Norway

Blood Pressure: Potassium, calcium, and magnesium are all present in the potato. These decrease blood

pressure naturally.

Countries with high Blood Pressure: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Slovenia

Heart Health: The potato's fiber, potassium, vitamin C, and vitamin B6 content, coupled with its lack of

cholesterol, all support heart health. Potatoes contain significant amounts of fiber. Fiber helps lower the total

amount of cholesterol in the blood, thereby decreasing the risk of heart disease.

Countries with highest population suffering from Heart Diseases: Turkmenistan

Inflammation:Choline is an important and versatile nutrient that is present in potatoes. It helps with muscle

movement, mood, learning, and memory. Also helps with maintaining the structure of cellular membranes, transmitting nerve impulses, absorption of fat and early brain development.

One large potato contains 57 mg of choline. Adult males need 550 mg, and females 425mg a day.

Country Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Value Value Value Value Value Forecasted Value Forecasted Value Forecasted Value Forecasted Value Forecasted Value

China [351] tonnes 95993141 95571117 94916682 95706650 99205580 98838928.72 99850225.93 100559286.1 101390834.5 102223211.3

China, mainland [41] tonnes 95941504 95515000 94860000 95650000 99147000 98778925.58 99789037.06 100496650.9 101326845.1 102157867.8

India [100] tonnes 45343600 46395000 48009000 43417000 48605000 44805862.07 46879255.93 45010566.68 47101089.25 44749942.19

Russian Federation [185] tonnes 30199126 31501354 33645799 31107797 29589976 30069471.41 29529766.43 29227971.94 28882684.81 28527122.52

Ukraine [230] tonnes 22258600 23693350 20839270 21750290 22208220 21964918.54 21267419.55 21004916.26 20649573.53 20481851.6

United States of America [231] tonnes 19715480 20056500 20012720 20022070 20017350 20089098.87 20117901.47 20167261.87 20210884.93 20254010.57

Germany [79] tonnes 9669700 11607300 10370200 10772100 11720000 11733431.75 11813993.75 12612567.76 13036802.15 12772127.79

Bangladesh [16] tonnes 8603000 8950000 9254285 9474099 10215957 10481064.33 10895777.35 11282437.6 11669160.03 12063493.16

Poland [173] tonnes 7290427 7689180 6313669 8872445 9171733 9818475.884 10442523.65 10975940.87 11594017.52 12209679.13

Cancer:Potatoes contain folate. Folate plays a role in DNA synthesis and repair, and so it prevents many types of cancer cells from forming due to mutations in the DNA.

Countries with high risk of colon cancer: South Korea, Hungary

Weight Management and satiety: Dietary fibers are recognized as important factors in weight management

and weight loss.They act as "bulking agents" in the digestive system. They increase satiety and reduce appetite,

so a person feels fuller for longer and is less likely to consume more calories.

Can India sustain in its traditional export markets for Potato?

Country Competing

Potato suppliers

Market Share (%)

Price points Average Tariff (%)

Final landing price

(CIF) USD/TON

Nepal India 100 117 9 127.53

Oman

India 25.1 364 0 364

Egypt 23.2 405 0 405

Pakistan 16.8 159 0 159

Germany 14.1 302 0 302

Lebanon 6.2 197 0 197

Sri Lanka

Pakistan 60.5 153 29.70 198.441

India 21.6 221 29.70 286.637

China 17.7 195 29.70

252.915

Netherlands 0.1 267 29.70 346.299

Singapore 0.1 1133 29.70 1469.501

Mauritius

India 99.4 396 0.00 396

South Africa 0.6 543 0.00 543

France 0 1000 0.00 1000

Malaysia

China 59.3 302.00 0 302

Pakistan 7.9 224 1 226.24

USA 7.8 647 2 659.94

Bangladesh 6.4 234 3 241.02

Germany 4.8 459 4 477.36

India 4.6 386 5 405.3

Maldives

India

63.4

439 0 439

United Arab Emirates

10.7 2906 1 2935.06

Sri Lanka 8.1 2765 2 2820.3

Australia 7.1 2043 3 2104.29

Pakistan 3.8 517 4 537.68

Country Competing

Potato suppliers

Market Share (%)

Price points Average Tariff (%)

Final landing price

(CIF) USD/TON

Indonesia

Germany 43.6 422 20 506.4

Canada 19.4 474 20 568.8

India 17 380 20 456

Australia 6.6 518 20 621.6

Egypt 6.1 381 20 457.2

Kuwait

Egypt 27.7 388 0 388

Lebanon 25.2 361 0 361

Pakistan 12.9 312 0 312

Germany 10.9 347 0 347

India 5.7 504 0 504

United Arab Emirates

Egypt 26.6 309 0 309

Pakistan 25.2 127 0 127

Lebanon 11.2 272 0 272

France 9.3 604 0 604

Australia 4.7 1248 0 1248

How feasible will it be for Indian banana to enter newer growing markets?

Importer

India's share in

Destination Country's Imports

Exporters Share in

Importer's imports

(%)

Unit value (USD/unit)

Average tariff (estimated) applied by

Importer (%)

FLP

Belgium 0 World 100 193 193

Belgium 0 France 51 166 0 166

Belgium 0 Germany 20.6 186 0 186

Belgium 0 Netherlands 18.7 225 0 225

Belgium 0 Spain 3.9 838 0 838

Netherlands 0 World 100 194 194

Netherlands 0 Germany 53.9 173 0 173

Netherlands 0 Belgium 20.1 179 0 179

Netherlands 0 France 12.6 205 0 205

Netherlands 0 Israel 4.9 418 2.4 428.032

USA 0 World 100 523

USA 0 Canada 99.9 523 0 523

USA 0 Colombia 0 2036 0 2036

USA 0 Ecuador 0 1344 0.5 1350.72

USA 0 China 0 8000 1.1 8088

Importer

India's share in

Destination Country's Imports

Exporters Share in

Importer's imports

(%)

Unit value (USD/unit)

Average tariff (estimated) applied by

Importer (%)

FLP

Spain 0 World 100 280

Spain 0 France 73.8 252 0 252

Spain 0 United Kingdom 12.9 484 0 484

Spain 0 Netherlands 4.1 419 0 419

Spain 0 Israel 3 477 2.4 488.448

Germany 0 World 100 383

Germany 0 Netherlands 26.3 250 0 250

Germany 0 France 20.4 475 0 475

Germany 0 Egypt 14.4 393 0 393

Germany 0 Spain 12.3 558 0 558

Russia 0 World 100 370

Russia 0 Egypt 62.2 353 7.5 379.475

Russia 0 Azerbaijan 14.1 449 0 449

Russia 0 China 11.4 440 7.5 473

Russia 0 Belarus 5.3 222 0 222

Russia 0 Pakistan 4.5 505 7.5 542.875

Italy 0 World 100 268

Italy 0 France 50.2 253 0 253

Italy 0 Germany 17.9 214 0 214

Italy 0 Egypt 11.7 459 0 459

Italy 0 Denmark 10 253 0 253

Possible impact of Currency Fluctuations in newer markets

Home Currency

Destination Country Currency

Current Exchange Rate

(Foreign/Domestic)

Expected Rate

after 1 year

Change Direction

INR USD 0.0139 0.0133 -4.32% INR to Depreciate

INR Russian Ruble 1.13 1.465s 1.50% INR to Depreciate

INR EUR 0.0126 0.0122 -3.18% INR to Depreciate

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2019 - agriexchange.apeda.gov.in · potato production in 2017: 1,105,190 tonnes early warning for...

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