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FEBRUARY 2020

SOMALIA 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT

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Disclaimer

This assessment report only estimates the impacts and needs arising from the floods during the period October to November 2019, covering the flood affected areas determined by the Federal Government of Somalia.

Photos courtesy of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA).

Design and layout by The Word Express, Inc.

F E B R UA R Y 2020

SOMALIA2019 FLOODS IMPACT

AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | III

Foreword Federal Government of Somalia ivForeword World Bank vAcknowledgements viList of Figures viiList of Tables viiList of Abbreviations and Acronyms ix1 Executive Summary 12 Introduction 73 Rainfall Analysis 134 Macroeconomic Impact Analysis 175 Sectoral Impact and Needs Assessment 21

Agriculture: Crops and Livestock 21

Housing 46

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 54

Education 58

Health 63

Transport 71

Disaster Risk Management 79

Displacement 85

6 The Way Forward: Flood Risk Management for Long Term Resilience 977 Bibliography 101

Table of Contents

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | Iv

I | Foreword Federal Government of Somalia

Since 1990, Somalia has experienced 30 climate-related hazards; 12 droughts and 18 floods—tripling the number of climates related hazards experienced between 1970 and 1990. In 2017, a severe drought left Somalia on the verge of famine. In 2019, a de-layed and erratic 2019 Gu’ rainy season resulted in the poorest harvest since the 2011 famine and flooding.

In October 2019, various regions across Somalia ex-perienced severe levels of flooding. The Hirshabelle State was the most impacted, particularly in the Beletweyn District and other town along the river, when the Shabelle River burst its banks as a result of heavy rains.

In response to the crisis and within its limited ca-pabilities, the Federal Government of Somalia, together with its vibrant civil society, business com-munity, the diaspora and the international partners, fast tracked the provision of critical lifesaving as-sistance to respond to the worsening situation.

On 29 October 2019, the Prime Minister of the Federal Government of Somalia appealed to the interna-tional partners to support the Government’s efforts to prevent the crisis from worsening by providing critical lifesaving assistance in the most severely af-fected areas and by investing in longer term solutions programming components in the emergency re-sponse to avert future crisis. On 23 November 2019, the United Nations and the Federal Government of

Somalia launched a three-month $72.5 million Flood Response Plan to mobilise additional resources.

In light of the above recurrent disasters, an inter-ministerial committee was appointed by the Prime Minister at the peak of October 2019 floods emer-gency. The committee spearheaded by Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHDMA) and based in the Office of the Prime Minister were tasked to monitor ongoing develop-ments and to coordinate emergency efforts.

After the initial response was completed, the com-mittee requested the World Bank to conduct this in-depth assessment in order to break the cycle of floods in the region. Our government has been working closely with the World Bank to undertake the assessment. We hope that the sectoral recov-ery strategies and flood risk management framework proposed in this assessment will provide a roadmap to long-term resilience against recurrent floods and that the people of Somalia will no longer have to en-dure the lasting damages from such disasters in the future.

Hamza Said HamzaMinister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster ManagementFederal Government of Somalia

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | v

II | Foreword World Bank

In October 2019, the Federal Government of Somalia launched an urgent call to action to respond to wide-spread flooding triggered by abnormal Deyr rains affecting over half a million people. Under the over-all leadership of the Office of the Prime Minister with the federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, the World Bank and part-ners profiled the flooding with the release of the Somalia rapid Flood Impact Needs Assessment (FINA), an extensive assessment of the flood im-pacts and recovery and resilience-building needs. It is our hope that the FINA will help organiza-tions and government—both at the national and Federal Member State level—to prioritize invest-ments and inform where resources are best allocated to support an integrated approach to flood recovery.

The successful collaboration showcases the power of partnership to support a government-led response, while making resilience-building a key underpinning of the approach. As Somalia braces for increasingly intense and frequent climate-related shocks, main-ly drought, flooding, and recently locust infestations, it will become increasingly important to enable ef-fective overall government leadership as well as the partnerships with civil society and private sector ac-tors that enable holistic and sustainable disaster management responses.

Despite multiple challenges from many directions, Somalia is on the path to stability. With the nor-malization of relations with International Financial Institutions through the Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative (HIPC), new opportunities arise for investment in the National Development Plan (2020–2024) to generate economic opportunity and poverty reduction while focusing on inclusiv-ity, resilience-building, and durable solutions to displacement. Importantly, this includes the contin-ued support through the Famine Action Mechanism (FAM) which should help position the country for an-ticipatory finance based on improved early warning capacity to ensure the country has both the data and the instruments to mitigate the impact of repeated natural shocks.

We are hopeful that the FINA will help the govern-ment maximize these opportunities, while advancing our sustained commitment to support Somali-led development.

Hugh RiddellWorld Bank Country Manager for Somalia

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | vI

III | Acknowledgements

The FINA was prepared under the overall leadership of and the Office of the Prime Minister and in part-nership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). It was undertaken with strategic sup-port from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and other partners, in particular OCHA, FAO, UNDP, IOM, and the EU. Financial support has been provid-ed by the World Bank. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support.

This assessment gratefully acknowledges the hard work of the World Bank and the Government of Somalia’s sectoral experts which will contribute to the efforts in building the resilience of the people of Somalia following the 2019 floods.

The individuals directly contributing to the report are Muhammad Abdullah Ali Malik, Tariro Tserayi, Toshiro Sonoda, Gianni Zanini, Hussein Haji, Stephen D’Alessandro, Shahrzad Mobasher Fard, Tesfaye Bekalu, Chantal Richey, Narayanan E., Naoko Ohno, Huma Ali Waheed, verena Phipps, Benjamin Kushner, Nadim Saghir, Howard Bell, Masroor Ahmad, Mark

Polyak, Jennifer Counter, Olumide Lawal, Khadar Sh. Mohamed Nur, Mohamed Mohamud Abdi, Mohamed Musse Adan, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, Mustaf Ibrahim Adan, Khadra Yasin Nageye, Ahmed Mohamed Moalim, Mohamed Dubat Mohamed, Abdulqadir Omar Hirsi, Abdiweli Suleyman, Abdullahi Ahmed Sh, Abubakar, Ali Haji, Abdirahman Omar, Mustaf Ibrahim Adan. This report benefited great-ly from periodic discussions with Christopher Print, Ugo Leonardi and Danielle Molla of FAO.

The overall assessment was led by Ayaz Parvez and co-led by Rina Meutia from the World Bank and Muhumed Hussein and Guled Korfa Garane from the Office of the Prime Minister of Somalia, under the stra-tegic direction of Hugh Riddell, World Bank Country Manager of Somalia and Hamza Saif Hamza, Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management of Federal Government of Somalia.

Excellent administrative support was provided by Seraphine Nsabimana and Eugenia Nafula Konya, with a very special thanks to the Mogadishu Security Team led by George Griffin.

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | vII

IV | List of Figures

Figure 1: Belet Weyne Town Submerged in Water 1Figure 2: Flood Extent Lower Shabelle and Hiraan Regions 8Figure 3: Flood Extent Hiraan Region and Belet Weyne 9Figure 4: Somalia Mean Rainfall (mm) April 2009–November 2016 14Figure 5: Day Cumulate Rainfall Forecast – October 2019 14Figure 6: Monthly Trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI, April 2007=100) 20Figure 7: Month-over-month Percentage Change in the CPI 20Figure 8: NDvI for Somalia – Relative Difference to Long-Term Average 28Figure 9: NDvI for southcentral Somalia – Relative Difference to December 2018 29Figure 10: Locusts Swarms in East Africa 30Figure 11: NDvI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – December 2019 over 10-year LTA 33Figure 12: NDvI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – Deyr 2019 over Deyr 2018 34Figure 13: NDvI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – Deyr 2019 over Deyr 2019 40Figure 14: Total Number of Public Schools by Region 60Figure 15: Health Facilities by Region 66Figure 16: Somalia Administrative Map 74Figure 17: Percentage of Population in Urban and Rural Areas 82

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | vIII

V | List of Tables

Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators for Somalia, 2016–2020F 18Table 2: Towns, Households and Cultivated Areas Affected by Floods in Middle Shabelle 32Table 3: NDvI Changes for November-December 2019 over Same Months 2018 33Table 4: Regional Gains/Losses in Staple Food Crops and Selected Others, Deyr 2019 vs 2018 35Table 5: Distribution of Crops Agriculture Recovery Needs 37Table 6: Livestock Performance Indicators by Districts 40Table 7: Distribution of Livestock Sector Recovery Needs 45Table 8: Population and Flood Affected Housing, 2014 and 2019 47Table 9: Assessment Summary of Housing Sites 48Table 10: Summary of the Housing Sector Damage and Economic Loss 49Table 11: Distribution of Housing Sector Needs 50Table 12: Housing Sector Recovery Indicators 51Table 13: Distribution of Housing Sector Recovery Needs by Districts 52TAble 14: WASH Sector Indicators for Damages and Losses 57Table 15: WASH Sector Damages by Affected Areas and Water Schemes 58Table 16: Distribution of WASH Sector Damages 58Table 17: WASH Sector Losses 59Table 18: Distribution of WASH Sector Recovery Needs 59Table 19: Number and Proportion of Students (by Gender & Region) 61Table 20: Distribution of Education Sector Damages by Districts 62Table 21: Distribution of Education Sector Recovery Needs 63Table 22: Distribution of Health Facilities per Population in the Affected Regions 67Table 23: Distribution of Health Sector Damages by Districts 68Table 24: Health Sector Summary of Damages and Losses 69Table 25: Distribution of Health Sector Recovery Needs 70Table 26: Road Type by Services 72Table 27: Transport Sector Baseline Data by Regions 75Table 28: Transport Sector Flooding Impact by Districts 75Table 29: Distribution of Transport Sector Damages and Losses 76Table 30: Changes in Traffic volumes and Trade Diversion 77Table 31: Distribution of Transport Sector Recovery Needs 78Table 32: Distribution of DRM & FRM Sector Damages and Losses 85Table 33: Distribution of DRM & FRM Sector Recovery Needs 86Table 34: Displacement Sector Summary of Damages and Losses 91Table 35: Distribution of Displacement Sector Recovery Needs 94

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | Ix

VI | List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

AfDB Africa Development BankAI Artificial IntelligenceCERF Central Emergency Response

FundCPI Consumer Price IndexCRW Crisis Response WindowDRM Disaster Risk ManagementEPHS Essential Package of Health

ServicesEU European UnionFAO Food and Agriculture

OrganizationFGS Federal Government of SomaliaFGS Federal Government of SomaliaFINA Flood Impact and Needs

AssessmentFMS Federal Member StatesFRM Flood Risk ManagementFSNAU Food Security and Nutrition

Analysis Unit-SomaliaGBvIMS Gender-Based violence

Information Management System

GDP Gross Domestic ProductGER Gross Enrolment RateGIS Geographic Information SystemGPI Gender Parity IndexHIPC Highly Indebted Poor CountriesHRP Humanitarian Response PlanHSSP Health Sector Strategic PlanIDPs Internally Displaced PersonsIOM International Organization for

MigrationITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

LLIN Long-lasting Insecticidal NetsLSDS Livestock Sector Development

StrategyMoECHE Ministry of Education, Culture

and Higher EducationMoHADM Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs

and Disaster ManagementNDP National Development PlanNDvI Normalized Difference

vegetation IndexNGO Non-governmental OrganizationOECD Organization for Economic

Co-operation and DevelopmentOPM Office of the Prime MinisterPDNA Post -Disaster Needs AssessmentPESS Population Estimations Survey

for SomaliaRDA Road Development AgencyREDSS Regional Durable Solutions

SecretariatRRF Recovery and Resilience

FrameworkSAR Synthetic-Aperture RadarSARA Service Availability and

Readiness AssessmentSDHS Somali Health and Demographic

SurveySHF Somalia Humanitarian FundSoDMA Somalia Disaster Management

AgencySWALIM Somalia Water and Land

Information MonitoringUSD United States Dollar

SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | 1

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The humanitarian situation in Somalia is deterio-rating due to the multiple and simultaneous crises afflicting the country. Currently, it is estimated that 5.2 million persons are in need of humanitarian as-sistance, and hard-won political and economic gains are being undermined. Substantial flooding along the Shabelle and Juba rivers during October and November 2019 devastated large areas and resulted in loss of life and significant damage to infrastruc-ture, crops, property, and livestock. More than a half million people were affected across 17 districts in the states of Jubaland, Hirshabelle, and Southwest, with an estimated 370,000 people displaced from their homes. The floods, which took place within the context of high levels of pre-existing food insecurity caused by repeated drought and crop failure in re-cent years, were accompanied by an elevated risk of water-borne disease and associated with the current outbreak of desert locusts in the region.

Led by a high-level inter-ministerial Flood Response Committee, the Government of Somalia appealed for emergency assistance in October 2019. In re-sponse, the World Bank and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in December 2019 initiated a joint

exercise to rapidly assess the losses and damages caused by the floods and to develop a strategy for immediate recovery and longer-term resilience build-ing. The result is the Somalia Rapid Flood Impact and Needs Assessment (FINA) contained in this report, which assesses and quantifies flood recovery and re-silience building needs across eight thematic areas, and includes a broad estimate of macro-economic impacts.

The FINA is a government-led assessment of damages, losses, and needs across multiple sectors, harmonizing support and information from the World Bank, United Nations, and other international and national actors. Methodologically, it employs the same tools and tech-niques as a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) which produces a comprehensive report on disaster impacts, needs and recovery strategies across sectors.

Importantly, the FINA will also form part of the baseline for future government-led interventions that will support immediate crisis recovery and longer-term resilience building against natural and manmade shocks in Somalia. Such interventions will include (a) rapid response to the desert locust crisis;


(b) early recovery from flooding and drought shocks; (c) medium-term rehabilitation of flood damaged infrastructure and services; (d) the development of longer-term solutions for flood risk management; and (e) the evolution of sustainable institutional models for crisis recovery and preparedness.

Summary of Findings for Sectoral Damage and Losses and Recovery NeedsThe FINA was completed at the end of January 2020, and estimates overall damages and losses arising from the 2019 floods of more than US$260 million and recovery needs of around US$350 million. Economic losses are assessed to be US$72.0 mil-lion in the year immediately following the floods, US$39.0 million in the second year, US$35.1 million in the third year, US$31.6 million in the fourth year, and US$28.4 million in the fifth year.1 Losses are expect-ed to endure beyond the first five years following the floods until the damages to the transportation sector and to crop production are fully restored.

Somalia’s anticipated economic growth for 2019 and beyond is projected to decline in the aftermath of the floods, with annual real GDP projected to fall to 1.5 per-cent, compared to the earlier projected growth rate

1 Assuming a recovery rate of 10 percent per year in every year following the floods.

of 3 percent. Moreover, economic losses as a result of the floods are projected to reach USD 206 million over the next five years. This anticipated deteriora-tion will be driven by a down-turn in trade-related activity following the significant damage to critical infrastructure such as roads, buildings, and bridges.

More favorably, the macroeconomic impact assess-ment of the recent floods indicates that the potential adverse effect of damages to the transportation network will be offset by an overall increase in ag-ricultural production. The increase is due to above average rainfall levels and has led to small net gains in economic activity along with a decline in agricul-tural products. Any potential minor increase in the time required increase to transport goods to their destination, which could have led to a pass through to retail and export prices, was offset by the de-cline in the price of agricultural products. However, Somalia’s transportation network remains critical in supporting regional integration and economic de-velopment, and the significant investment needs in this sector must be met.

Nonetheless, the livestock and crops sector remain the main sources of economic activity, employment, and exports, with about 49 percent of the population

FIGURE 1: BELET WEYNE TOWN SUBMERGED IN WATER


still living in rural areas and 25 percent of employed people working in crop cultivation and 9 percent in pastoral herding. Thus, the recovery, resilience and growth prospects of the crops and livestock sectors are key to Somalia’s prospects for sustainable eco-nomic growth and poverty reduction.

Agriculture (Crop Production and Livelihoods)

• Damage and Losses: The impact of the recent floods has been much more limited and lo-calized.

• Recovery Needs (USD 28 million): The overall non-water early resilience needs for crops agriculture over the medium-term amount to $35 million, with those related to water-for-agriculture amounting to $45 million, and about twice as much in the long-term. The corresponding figure for livestock is $57 million in the medium-term, also doubling for the long-term.

Housing• Damage and Losses (USD 26.5 million): Nearly

20,250 housing units have been damaged in the flood affected districts, compris-ing 4,640 fully damaged housing units and 15,613 partly damaged units.

• Recovery Needs (USD 33.7 million): This com-prises the housing replacement costs for housing assistance and project implemen-tation cost. The project implementation cost consists of housing damage assessments; project management cost and third-party beneficiary and technical auditing; and physical and financial contingencies for in-flation and other project cost overruns.

Transport• Damage and Losses (USD 94.8 million): An

estimated 321 kilometers of road and 23 bridges were damaged by the floods, while 5 percent of road embankments were destroyed. Roads that connect towns and

villages in the affected districts have been significantly damaged, disrupting economic activities, delaying relief operations, and hin-dering school access.

• Recovery Needs (USD 115 million): This esti-mate includes rehabilitation of destroyed roads, and bridges; repair of road drainage systems, embankments and structures; as-sessments pertaining to availability of labor and construction materials; and installation of bailey bridges on damaged bridges sites.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene• Damage and Losses (8.8 million): The estima-

tion was based on the damaged water supply and sanitation facilities such as 64 boreholes; 272 shallow wells and 58 water pans based on the type of schemes of 2017-unit cost rate with inflation rate of 3.2% for 2018 and 4% for 2019.

• Recovery Needs (24.8 million): The needs esti-mate includes costs pertaining to repair and rehabilitation of water reservoirs, dams, san-itation systems, water schemes and water distributions systems. Costs associated with water disposal, waste management, aware-ness campaigns and provision of water emergency water supply to affected regions are also included in the estimate.

Education• Damage and Losses (USD 29 million): Assuming

each school has 8 classrooms, schools in 14 districts have sustained damages as a result of the flooding, ranging from US$ 187,153 to approx. US$ 3.6 million worth of dam-age. In aggregate, damages are estimated at US$25.9 million, assuming irrecoverable damage. The estimation also included loss-es associated with loss of school learning materials and equipment, and provision of temporary learning spaces.

• Recovery Needs (USD 34.8 million): In the flood affected schools (33,701 pupils), it is


estimated that US$903,980 is required for school learning materials and equipment. The other needs associated with helping the education sector restore basic services include rehabilitation of damaged school infrastructure, conducting rapid teacher re-cruitment and training, and provision of temporary learning spaces.

Health• Damage and Losses (USD 42 million): The

damages to the sector were attributable to the 15 health facilities that were report-ed using remote sensing. The damage replacement cost was estimated at about US$ 1.2 million. The sector losses amount-ed to about US$40.7 million. The losses for the health sector were identified as addi-tional costs for treatment of AWD/Cholera cases for the next 12 months as a result of the floods, and losses incurred on replacing health supplies and equipment.

• Recovery Needs (USD 46 million): The needs estimate comprised of costs associated with rehabilitation of the 15 damaged health fa-cilities; provision of health care services for AWD/Cholera cases for the next 12 months; purchase and restoration of health supplies and equipment lost in the flooding and de-veloping a health surveillance system.

Disaster Risk Management and Flood Risk Management

• Damage and Losses (USD 15 million): Includes impacts to relief supplies and warehouses, monitoring equipment, and gauging sta-tions and expenses related to coordinating and delivering emergency relief.

• Recovery Needs (USD 42 million): The main goal of the assessment was to ensure that sectoral recovery investments are protect-ed from future flood risk. In the short term 15% of the early recovery financial needs were required for immediate recovery, while 85% of financial needs were required

in the medium-term period. These ear-ly recovery needs include interim cost for flood risk management for long term re-silience based on proposed interventions by the Federal Government of Somalia. Es-timate includes costs pertaining to flood monitoring equipment, flood management planning, technical capacity in DRM/FRM institutions, and rehabilitation/retention fa-cilities of canals.

Displacement• Damage and Losses (USD 25 million): Heavy

rains and flooding contributed to severe-ly damaged infrastructure and is estimated to have resulted in at least $25,000,000 in damages and losses in formal IDP settle-ments as related to damaged housing and shelter across 154 IDP sites, affected water resources and impeded provision of health services.

• Recovery Needs (USD 25 million): Flood re-covery needs for displacement-affected populations is estimated to be $25,000,000. While sector-specific recovery needs for IDPs have been articulated for housing and shelter, water and health, the response and recovery strategy for displacement-affect-ed populations advances multi-sectoral initiatives in affected areas to improve safety, self-reliance, resilience and so-cio-economic integration of respective vulnerable populations, while also looking to strengthen and sustain a whole of gov-ernment approach at national and regional levels to lead promote durable solutions to displacement-related challenges. Longer-term recovery interventions also enable opportunities to strengthen livelihood and resilience mechanisms in rural communi-ties in order to advance opportunities for sustainable, safe and dignified return.

The World Bank estimates that a reconstruction and recovery funding gap for the floods of USD 397 million remains, if building-back-better costs


are also factored in, with an additional USD 1.03 bil-lion also requested by the UN system for the 2020 Humanitarian Response Plan. In January 2020, the FGS also announced USD 500,000 to assist flood victims. However, international donor financing is strained and the government’s limited fiscal flexibil-ity and capacity hampers their ability to effectively respond to the country’s multiple crisis, with climate change exacerbating the country’s disaster risks. Moreover, according to the Somalia rainfall outlook for the 2020 Gu rains (March to June), above average rains are forecasted, likely causing additional flood-ing along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, potentially exacerbating the devastation caused by the 2019 floods. To support the recovery from the unprece-dented floods, Somalia has proposed an access to

US$75 million from the World Bank’s Crisis Response Window resources.

The results of this assessment will help the Government of Somalia and partners identify multi-sector priori-ties for immediate and medium-term flood recovery and longer-term recovery and resilience building strategies for crisis-affected areas, in line with the new National Development Plan (2020–2024) and the Somalia Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF).

This document provides an overview of the FINA, including the methodology, findings of the sec-tor impact and needs assessment, and sets out a medium-term recovery and resilience strategy for flood-affected areas.


2. INTRODUCTION

Context

Confronting Recurrent Crisis and New ExtremesIn the past decade, Somalia has experienced re-curring floods and droughts. The 2011 East Africa Drought resulted in the death of a quarter mil-lion individuals, half of whom were children under the age of five, as well as the displacement of near-ly 1 million individuals. In 2016/17, the country experienced another large-scale drought, leaving an estimated 6.7 million individuals in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. In 2018, Somalia also expe-rienced major flooding, which further displaced over 230,000 individuals, worsening the impact of the 2016/17 drought. Considered the most vulnerable country to climate change in the world, the inten-sity and frequency of climatic events facing Somalia is expected to increase in the coming years. In addi-tion to these disaster risks, Somalia is still confronting significant political insecurity risks and capacity con-straints due to more than two decades of conflict.

The country is, however, gradually establishing the foundations for stability and a new political

settlement and progressing on the reforms necessary to advance towards eligibility for the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and widen access to international public finance. The recently final-ized National Development Plan (NDP) (2020–2024) provides a further opportunity to advance govern-ment-led coordination, looking to set a clear path to build the economy and reduce poverty, while fo-cusing on inclusivity, resilience-building, and durable solutions to displacement. The NDP-9 seeks to sim-plify and harmonize existing frameworks and plans, including the Recovery and Resilience Framework, National Reconciliation Framework, National Disaster Management Plan, Durable Solutions Strategy, and the Humanitarian Response Plan, and collabora-tion across development and humanitarian actors. Despite the more favorable economic and political outlook, challenges continue to be daunting, with modest economic growth, an active armed conflict, and recurrent natural disasters leading to widespread vulnerabilities.

Another Devastating FloodsThe Deyr rains are seen in Somalia each year, usually lasting from September to November or December.


FIGURE 2: FLOOD EXTENT LOWER SHABELLE AND HIRAAN REGIONS

In late October and November 2019, moderate to heavy rains caused widescale flooding in low-lying areas along the Shabelle and Juba rivers and contin-ued in many parts of Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. The water levels in the Shabelle River have increased, exceeding the maximum holding capac-ity in Beletweyn town. Most flooding occurred in the regions of Bakool, Banadir, Bay, Hiraan, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Middle Shabelle. One of the most impacted areas includes Beledweyne district in Hiraan, leaving nearly 70 percent of the town in-undated. At Buklo Barte district in Hiraan the river is nearly at its bankful, posing an immediate threat of spillage. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN’s (FAO) Somalia Water and Land Information Monitoring (SWALIM) reported that the rainfall fore-cast shows an increase in many parts of Somalia. The

current high river levels in Shabelle and flash flood-ing are expected to continue.

According to latest figures by the United Nations Office of Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), more than half a million people have been affected by the flooding, with 370,000 people displaced from their homes. In addition, the flood-ing caused significant damage to infrastructure, property, crops, livestock, and delayed planting, including increased risk of malnutrition and wa-ter/mosquito-borne diseases as the water slowly recedes. The situation has been exacerbated by the protracted impact of the 2016–2017 drought, poor 2018 Deyr rains (October to December), dry conditions during the 2019 Jilaal season (December-March), underperforming and erratic


FIGURE 3: FLOOD EXTENT HIRAAN REGION AND BELET WEYNE

2019 Gu’ rains (April-June), and severe desert locust infestations triggered by the recent rains, the worst Somalia has experienced in 25 years affecting tens of thousands of hectares of land, combined with other drivers of need such as armed conflict and poverty.

The 2019 UN Floods Response Plan reported that nearly an additional USD 50 million is required for the immediate flood response, while approximately USD 20 million has been released from the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund and Somalia Humanitarian Fund to provide life-saving human-itarian assistance. Despite increased humanitarian

assistance, significant gaps remain in response to the flood for the provision of basic health services, wa-ter and sanitation, food assistance, and emergency shelter, with a financing gap of nearly USD 400 mil-lion for the flood response.2 This is on top of the USD 1.03 billion also requested by the UN system for the 2020 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). Moreover, the Government’s fiscal situation, characterized by limited external financing, foreign currency shortag-es, and high domestic debt repayments, offers the Federal Government of Somalia limited flexibility to effectively meet the unprecedented scale of contin-ually accumulating humanitarian and reconstruction needs.


Escalating Humanitarian and Food Security CrisisThe humanitarian situation, with 5.2 million persons in need of humanitarian assistance, is at risk of cul-minating into an acute food security crisis by the damage inflicted by the ongoing drought and the evolving flood crisis, while also undermining the country’s political and development gains. High lev-els of chronic malnutrition persist across Somalia due to food insecurity, high morbidity, low immuni-zation, the lack of vitamin A supplementation, and poor health care practices. Food security trends have deteriorated from 2019, with an estimated 2.1 million Somali’s facing severe hunger (IPC 3 and 4), includ-ing 1 million children, while 4.2 million people are Stressed (IPC 2) and 6.3 million people are estimated to be acutely food insecure (IPC 2 and above), nearly half the country’s population.

Prompting Evidence-Based Recovery PlanningOn 29 October 2019, the Prime Minister of Somalia triggered the release of USD 500,000 of emergency funding to respond to the floods and called for ur-gent support from the international partners. Despite the challenging access and logistics due to prevailing weather conditions, the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) of the FGS formed the inter-ministerial Flood Response Committee and conducted a multisectoral

flood assessment which focused on the most affect-ed district of Beletweyn.

In continuation of an earlier request by the OPM in November 2019, the FGS, through the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM), requested the World Bank to support the government-led multi-sector assessment on the impacts and needs caused by the flooding. The Government has officially assigned sectoral focal points from across ministries to work alongside the World Bank’s sectoral experts. In conjunction, the Government also specifically requested the World Bank to develop a medium to long-term Floods Recovery Framework to leverage and prioritize in-terventions and investments for Somalia’s floods recovery and resilience building, in line with the new NDP-9 and RRF7. The Flood Impacts Needs Assessment (FINA) is the preliminary tool to esti-mate the required financial resources and to define the suitable recovery strategy.

Objectives and ScopeThe objective of the FINA is to support the FGS ef-forts to estimate the damages caused by the floods and the corresponding recovery needs required, and to develop sector and cross-cutting recovery strat-egies, which could lead to potentially developing a Flood Recovery Framework and to facilitate the gov-ernment’s recovery planning efforts.

While specific to Somalia, FINA is synonymous with the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), which is a government-led assessment of damages, losses, and needs across multiple sectors, harmonizing sup-port and information from the World Bank, United Nations, and other international and national actors. Methodologically, it employs the same tools and techniques as a PDNA, and the end-product is also the same—a comprehensive report on disaster im-pacts, needs and recovery strategies.

FINA includes two broad activities, namely Sector Impact Assessment and Needs Assessment and Recovery Strategy. Sector Impact Assessment cov-ers characterization and quantification of physical impact (damages), including agriculture (crop pro-


duction, livestock, irrigation); disaster and flood risk management; transport; housing; education; health; water, sanitation and hygiene; and displacement. All the sector inputs converge to inform a broad mac-roeconomic and fiscal impact assessment of the floods. The Needs Assessment and Recovery Strategy covers a separate sectoral recovery strategy that pri-oritizes and sequences recovery needs over the next three years into phases of immediate transitional needs and medium-term recovery.

FINA only assesses the impacts and needs aris-ing from the floods event of the period between October-November 2019, covering the flood affected areas determined by the Government. The affected areas are in 17 districts in Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Banadir, Bay, and Galgaduu, located in the three states of Jubaland, Hirshabelle and Southwest. While the fo-cus of the assessment is on the floods, the FINA also accounts for interrelated and compounding effects of the recent drought that also impacted the flood af-fected areas covered under the assessment.

MethodologyThe methodology used in FINA is a mix of assessment tools for collecting, triangulating, and compiling impact and needs data for the floods, including avail-able public sector data, secondary data from partner agencies, ground information, remote sensing, and social media data. FINA also relies on sectoral ex-pertise from the Government, World Bank and UN agencies, particularly FAO and SWALIM to translate the triangulation of sector impacts estimates in or-der to generate the associated needs and recovery strategies.

To support the sector teams and the coordinating team, FINA utilizes the support of a remote-sensing firm, Ipsos Inc. The firm plays an important role in collecting, analyzing, and validating existing pub-licly available data and multi-source data across sectors of impact and needs data of the flooding. Remote-sensing applications are used to delineate the geographic and temporal extent of the floods and to provide an objective tool to quantify the im-pacts in the identified sectors. For validation of data

and findings, Ipsos uses the following techniques to verify and clean data received by Government, UN, and other relevant partners:

• High-resolution 30–50cm imagery analy-sis, for identifying and verifying the varying conditions of infrastructure and services in the impact areas. Additionally, this imagery can be utilized to identify any potential bar-riers for transportation and entry to these facilities.

• Medium-resolution 3M–30M resolution im-agery for identifying and verifying extent of the disaster and potential impact on agri-culture. This analysis will utilize automated change detection based on cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, includ-ing deep learning.

• Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) images pro-duced by an active system that sends a microwave signal from a sensor platform to the ground and detects backscattered waves that the ground reflects directly back to a receiver on the same platform, which can be borne aloft by either airplanes or sat-ellites.

• GIS analysis, in order to analyze existing pub-lic sector data and, in turn, provide baseline and impact maps by sector, where applica-ble.

• Social media analytics, for gaining an under-standing of the relations between refugees and the host country/local population. Ipsos maintains a real-time social listening and historical archive, populated at a rate of 5 billion mentions per day. This informa-tion is curated and updated on a daily basis, allowing users to cross-triangulate findings with imagery data and other sources. This information is automatically mined for data on damage, functionality, and service avail-ability and is further refined and enriched through a human review with significant


regional experience (in this case, a staff member from Ipsos Somalia).

This document provides an overview of the FINA, including the methodology, an elaboration of find-ings of the sector impact and needs assessment as specified in the table, and sets out a medium-term re-covery and resilience strategy for flood-affected areas. Although not officially estimated, the report will have a brief update on the recent desert locust swarm sit-uation, which is critical risk to both pasture and crops and is already present in the flood affected states of Hirshabelle, Jubaland as well as South West States.

The findings and sectoral strategies recommended in this assessment will contribute to the Somalia’s

Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF), which has been used as the policy, institutional, and fi-nancial basis to guide the transition from flood relief to recovery and long-term development. In addition, it will help the World Bank and partners to identify multi-sector priorities for immediate and medium-term flood recovery and longer-term recovery and resilience building strategies for flood-affected areas to build the economy and re-duce poverty, while focusing on addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability through inclu-sivity, resilience-building, and durable solutions to displacement. These efforts will be in line with the new National Development Plan (2020–2024) and build on existing efforts as defined in the Somalia’s RRF.

Sector Damages Losses Total Effect

Short-Term Needs(6–12

months)

Medium Term Needs (1–3 years)

Total Needs(USD)

Transport 94,806,623 94,806,623 115,382,276

Housing 26,470,853 — 26,470,853 33,657,690

Education 25,951,817 3,094,545 29,046,362 21,242,411 13,581,214 34,823,625

Health 1,239,982 40,999,040 42,239,022 46,015,018

Water, Sanitationand Hygiene

8,895,566 20,480,616 29,376,182 24,801,800

Agricultural and Pastoral Livelihoods

28,043,377 28,043,377

Disaster and Flood RiskManagement

6,080,400 9,025,000 15,105,400 6,401,400 35,576,900 41,978,300

Displacement 9,019,500 15,976,763 24,996,263 25,000,000

Grand Total 172,464,740 89,575,964 262,040,704 55,687,188 49,158,114 349,702,086


3. RAINFALL ANALYSIS

Climate in Somalia is influenced by a number of factors, including the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoonal winds and ocean cur-rents, jet-streams including the Somali Jetstream or Somalia Current, easterly waves, tropical cyclones, neighboring Indian Ocean and Red Sea conditions. Precipitation is generally low across the country and takes the form of showers or localized torrential rains, subject to high spatial and temporal variability. The average annual rainfall is about 200 mm in most parts of the country. Only the northern coastline receives significantly less rainfall (only up to 50 mm). Rainfall in the south is higher at approximately 400 mm and highest in the southwest with around 600 mm rain-fall on an annual average.2

Annual mean temperature is close to 30°С throughout the country. Average monthly tem-peratures reach their maximum during the months of April through June. June to September are the hottest months in the north, while December to March marks the hottest weather for the south.

Rainfall in Somalia has historically been low and inconsistent, often resulting in periods of prolonged drought. Somalia’s peak rainfall sea-son occurs during the Gu (April-June) and the Deyr (October–December). Descending motion of the air and the resulting low humidity is cited as the main cause for this variability in rainfall. Somalia is further subjected to low rainfall since it is located towards the leeward side of the Kenyan and Ethiopian high-lands. The orographic and coastal influences are also regarded as significant and affect the pattern of rain-fall in the country.3

While Somalia often confronts drought-like con-ditions, the country also periodically experiences flooding due to heavy rainfall. This flooding most-ly occurs during the Deyr season, largely influenced by rainfall in the upper catchments of the Shabelle and Juba Rivers in neighboring Ethiopia. Over the past three decades, severe floods have been record-ed in Somalia, including 1997 (Deyr), 2006 (Deyr), 2018 (Gu) and the current 2019 (Deyr) floods.

2 World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal .Somalia.3 “Climate of Somalia”, SWALIM 2007.


FIGURE 4: SOMALIA MEAN RAINFALL (MM) APRIL 2009–NOVEMBER 2016

Source: FSNAU.

Source: SWALIM.

120.00

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201220112010 2013 2014 2015 2016

Poly. (Mean rfe (mm))Mean rfe (mm)

74.39

97.68

106.72

95.43

FIGURE 5: DAY CUMULATE RAINFALL FORECAST – OCTOBER 2019


The Deyr rains (September-December) started in September in some parts of Somalia and mod-erate to heavy rains continued in many parts of the country and within the Ethiopian highlands, according to the FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management. Moderate to heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands that feed the Juba and Shabelle rivers led to the rise in river levels leading to flooding in Hirshabelle, Jubaland and Southwest states. Heavy rains of more than 100mm were record-ed in the Hiraan, Bay and Bakool regions which were already saturated following weeks of continued heavy rains. On 4 and 5 November, moderate to heavy rains were experienced in parts of the Juba and Shabelle

river basins, while Beletweyn town and Wanle Weyne in Lower Shabelle recorded heavy rains and Nugaal and Mudug areas received light rains.4

Effective planting rains during the Deyr and Gu season have become erratic, delayed and below average over the years. Somalia experiences two rainy seasons, Deyr and Gu. Deyr lasts from October to December while the Gu season extends from April to June. The heavy rainfall marked the end of the drought across much of the country, supporting crop development and the replenishment of water sources further improving pasture growth and re-ducing water stress.

4 OCHA Somalia Flash Update #4 Humanitarian impact of flooding | 6 November 2019.


4. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

The macroeconomic impact assessment of the recent floods indicates that any potential ad-verse impact from damages to the transportation network was offset by increased supplies of agri-cultural products. Increased supplies of agricultural products due to above average rainfall levels were found to have led to small net gains in economic ac-tivity along with a decline in agricultural products. While damages to the transportation network were expected to lead to a marginal increase in the time required to transport goods to their final destina-tion, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Southern regions point to an overall decline in inflationary pressures in November and December. This sug-gests that any potential minor increase in the time required increase to transport goods to their destina-tion, which could have led to a pass through to retail and export prices, was offset by the decline in the price of agricultural products. Notwithstanding the

fact that the economy has not been adversely affect-ed by the floods, Somalia’s transportation network remains critical in supporting regional integration and economic development, and the significant in-vestment needs in this sector must be met.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Macroeconomic Sector

Somali Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has remained modest within the context of an agrari-an- and consumption-based economy supported by large remittance and aid flows, and is chal-lenged by recurrent natural disasters with limited coping mechanisms in place. Between 2015 and 2018, Somali Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was es-timated to have grown at an average annual pace of 2.7 percent which, combined with an annual popula-tion grow rate of 2.9 percent per year,5 has resulted in

5 The World Bank and IMF GDP estimates are not based on a production-based approach and are only rough consumption-based estimates. Rough production-based estimates of crops and livestock production volumes and values were made for 2013–2016 (average) and for 2017 (in joint Bank-FAO 2018 Agriculture Report and subsequently updated in the joint 2019 Bank-FAO 2019 LSDS).


2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices 2.9 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.2

Private consumption (% of GDP) 151.8 157.4 155.9 157.2 158.0

Government consumption (% of GDP) 8.6 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.4

Gross Fixed Capital Investment (% of GDP) 14.1 12.1 6.5 3.8 1.6

Exports, Goods and services (% of GDP) 25.4 22.1 25.9 27.1 26.5

Imports, Goods and services (% of GDP) 99.9 102.6 99.6 99.3 97.6

Inflation (Consumer Price Index) 1.2 6.1 3.2 3.0 2.7

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) –9.4 –9.0 –8.3 –8.3 –8.0

Source: World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa Macro Poverty Outlook, 2019 Annual Meetings.

TABLE 1: SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR SOMALIA, 2016–2020F

an annual GDP per capita contraction of 0.2 percent a year.6 Economic growth is mainly consumption driv-en, supported by large remittance and aid inflows, estimated at about USD 1.4 billion a year, equiva-lent to about 29 percent of Somalia’s GDP in 2018,7 with construction activity, telecommunications, and money transfer services constituting the key sectors driving growth. Nevertheless, the agriculture sector remains the backbone of the economy at 75 percent of GDP and 93 percent of total exports, representing one the highest shares concentrated on primary ac-tivities in the world.8 The livelihoods of roughly half of Somalia’s estimated population of 15 million indi-viduals is reliant on pastoralism or agro-pastoralism activities, implying that a significant portion of Somalia’s population remains highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Table 1 presents a selected set of ac-tual, estimated and projected economic indicators for Somalia between 2016 and 2020.

The achievement of development outcomes has been undermined significantly by these econom-ic challenges and the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

According to the second wave of the Somalia High Frequency Survey undertaken in 2017/18, roughly 69 percent of Somalis live below the international pover-ty line.9 This makes Somalia the third poorest country in the region, after Burundi and South Sudan,10 and the sixth poorest in the world. While the poverty rate is found to vary between 26 percent and 70 percent across regions, it is found to be more acute among children and youth,11 as well as among the population living in rural areas and in internally displaced persons (IDPs) settlements, with 70 percent living below the poverty line. Furthermore, vulnerability in Somalia is multi-dimensional and poor households are more likely to be deprived beyond monetary poverty. To illustrate, only 55 percent of Somalis are literate, on-ly 16 percent have completed primary school, and only 7 percent have finished secondary school. Only 20 percent of rural households have access to ba-sic water services compared to over two-thirds of urban households, and less than 10 percent have basic sanitation or hygiene.12 Moreover, only about one-fifth of the population has access to electrici-ty. In addition, maternal mortality was estimated at

6 IMF. Somalia: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program—Press Release; and Staff Report: IMF, November 2019.7 Ibid.8 World Bank. 2018. Country Partnership Framework for the Federal Republic of Somalia. Washington, DC: World Bank.9 Poverty is estimated using the international US$1.90 2011 purchasing power parity poverty line.10 World Bank. 2018. Country Partnership Framework for the Federal Republic of Somalia. Washington, DC: World Bank.11 Roughly 56 percent of children under five years and 59 percent of youth between 5 and 15 years of age are poor.12 UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund) and World Health Organization. 2019. Joint Monitoring Program. See <https://washdata.org/data#!/som>.

https://washdata.org/data#!/som


734 for every 100,000 births, and the under-five mor-tality rate, which was at 133 per 1,000 births before the 2016/17 drought,13 is expected to have worsened in the aftermath of the 2016/2017 drought. Lastly, three-quarters of the population is below the age of 30, which, coupled with high rates of unemployment, induces major socio-economic challenges.

Somalis are vulnerable to various covariate (i.e., natural disasters and epidemics) and idiosyncrat-ic (i.e., injury, death, or unemployment) events or shocks, which threaten their livelihoods. Some 66 percent of Somali households reported experienc-ing at least one type of shock in the past 12 months.14 Most of the reported shocks were related to fluctuation in climate conditions and to its impact on livelihoods and the economy following the 2016/17 drought. The population’s livelihoods are closely linked to the variability in rainfall levels given the dominance of agro-pastoralism in the economy and the reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Of those who experienced a shock, one in two households reported suffering from drought impacts, while one in four households re-ported loss of crops or livestock and shortage of water for farming or cattle. One in every five households ex-perienced high food prices and two out of five Somali households experienced multiple types of shocks within a year. The negative impact of each shock is compounded by the possibility that a household ex-periences multiple types of shocks simultaneously.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on the MacroeconomyThe macroeconomic impact assessment indicates that any potential rise in transportation costs re-lated to damages to the transportation network was offset by increased supplies of agricultural products. Increased supplies of agricultural products

due to above average rainfall levels were found to have led to small net gains in economic activity along with a decline in agricultural products. Indeed, this assess-ment estimates net gains of US$15.1 million for the main agricultural crops across the 10 regions affected by the floods and heavy rains for the Deyr 2019 season compared to the Deyr 2018 season. While damages to the transportation network were expected to lead to a marginal increase in the time required to transport goods to their final destination, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Southern regions point to an over-all decline in inflationary pressures in November and December. This therefore suggests that any poten-tial minor increase in the time required to transport goods to their destination, which could have led to a pass through to retail and export prices, was offset by the decline in the price of agricultural products.15

(Figure 6 and Figure 7). Notwithstanding the fact that there has been no macroeconomic impact on a net basis, Somalia’s transportation network remains critical in supporting regional integration and economic de-velopment. A 2013 assessment of the value chain of Somalia’s livestock sector produced by the U.S. Agency for International Development has found that weak in-frastructure is an immediate challenge to the sector’s competitiveness and consequently leads to lower in-comes in communities relying on livestock production.

The recent floods have posed a significant threat of a desert locust outbreak which, if left un-attended, may pose a significant risk to the macroeconomic outlook and the livelihoods of millions of Somalis. The risk of a desert locust out-break remains a major threat to the macroeconomic outlook and to the livelihoods of a significant portion of Somalia’s population. If not properly attended to, this could be most serious outbreak seen in the last 25 years with devastating effects.

13 Ibid.14 There were 18 categories of shock in the dataset which were collapsed into 8 categories presented in the graphs. Loss of crop and livestock refers to crop failure; crop disease or pest, and livestock death or disease. Reduction in income includes loss of remittances or other assistance, job loss or business failure, and loss of a household member or main earner due to illness or accident. Conflict covers both experiencing violence and land eviction whereas other natural shocks include floods or landslides and fire.15 The CPI is computed based on the Minimum Expenditure Basket developed by FSNAU, which represents the minimum set of basic food items such as sorghum, vegetable oil and sugar, comprising 2,100 kilocalories/person/day basic energy requirement for a household of 6–7 and non-food items such as such as water, kerosene, firewood, soap and cereal grinding costs. The MEB contains 4 sub-baskets; 2 baskets cover the rural and urban towns in the Northwest (Somaliland shillings) and the other 2 cover the rural and urban towns in the rest of the country (Somali Shillings). The CPI is calcu-lated as the average percentage change in the current MEB Cost in reference to the March 2007 MEB Cost.


FIGURE 6: MONTHLY TRENDS IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI, APRIL 2007=100)

FIGURE 7: MONTH-OVER-MONTH PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE CPI

SouthCentral

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–3%

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Source: FSNAU.

Source: FSNAU.


5. SECTORAL IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT

Agriculture: Crops and Livestock

SummaryAs recent joint World Bank-FAO reports on crops agri-culture and livestock have emphasized, the long civil war that started in Somaliland in the late 1980s before engulfing the southcentral regions of Somalia through the 1990s resulted in an extreme lack of security and major damage to its institutions, critical infrastructures, and human capital. Public and private investment have been minimal since and there remains a lingering vac-uum in the policy functions, monitoring, and essential economic services normally provided by government. The persistent civil insecurity and weak institutions have compounded the negative impact of the early phase of the civil war in the 1990s on the country’s nat-ural environment and on its largely agricultural-based economy. In the meanwhile, major challenges to the sector from climate events related to global warming have become more frequent and extreme.

Nonetheless, the livestock and crops sectors remain the main sources of economic activity, employment,

and exports, with about 49 percent of the population still living in rural areas, and 46 percent of employed people working in agriculture (25 percent in crop cul-tivation, 9 percent in herding, 4 percent in fishing, and 7 percent in related activities). Thus, the resilience and growth prospects of the livestock, crops and agro-processing sectors are key to Somalia’s prospects for sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction.

The livestock sector has shown remarkable resilience over the past decades and through the mid-2010s; there has been strong performance in live animal production and exports, even in the absence of gov-ernment animal health programs and institutions. While rising demand for fresh milk and meat has been met by expanded production, however, processing of livestock products is minimal and well below prewar levels. The sector also experienced an almost halving of livestock exports since the re-imposition of an im-port ban in December 2016 by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, ostensibly on animal disease grounds and due to lack of credibility of the government-issued certifi-cates of good health. In contrast, the performance of


the crop sector, grown under both irrigated and rain-fed conditions, has been very weak, providing only about 40–50 percent of per capita cereal needs, even in its best years and despite its high recovery poten-tial towards its pre-war peak. Poor state of water and transport infrastructure is the main proximate fac-tor preventing agricultural recovery, resilience and development, all rooted in the persistent weak se-curity and institutions, especially in the southcentral regions.

During the early months (October-early November) of the Deyr 2019 season, the southcentral regions ex-perienced above-average rainfall. These short-term weather developments, which would be mostly ben-eficial under normal conditions to the vegetation cover on and productivity of both cultivated lands and pastures, however, occurred in the context of severe, long-term deterioration of the entire irriga-tion and flood control infrastructure, due to lack of, or minimal, maintenance and repairs during the past three decades. The problem of lower river embank-ments from erosion, higher river beds from buildup of silt, and non-functioning water reservoirs and irri-gation and drainage canals, has been compounded by man-made breaches of the river embankments to access scarce water for irrigation needs during past drought periods. All these factors have resulted in severe floods and flash floods in localized areas, in-cluding some cultivated lands, along the Shabelle and Juba rivers and in the interriverine areas.

Somalia’s cultivated areas are prone to drought and flooding, and especially sensitive to the former. In 2016/17, the country suffered from severe drought that caused major damages to agricultural assets, production losses and food shortages and price spikes. Less than two years later, the southcentral re-gions experienced another moderate drought during the planting and growing phases (March-May) of the 2019 Gu season, followed by floods during the plant-ing and growing phases (October-November) of the 2019 Deyr season. Unlike the widespread and major impact on agriculture of the 2016/17 drought that covered the whole country, however, the impact of the recent floods has been much more limited and also localized.

Crop production losses of about $7.5 million have been recorded only in a few districts located in two (Hiraan and Middle Shabelle) of the three regions along the Shabelle river, in one (Gedo) of the three re-gions along the Juba river, and in a semi-arid region (Galguduud) in central Somalia, though the latter’s losses were not related to the floods. All other districts in all southern regions, including in the interriver-ine areas, experienced gains in production of about $17.6 million, attributable to the above-average and longer-persisting rains and soil moisture. Net gains for farmers in the southern regions, therefore, amount to $10.1 million. The livestock sector also benefitted from the greener pastures brought about by the bet-ter rains of the Deyr season, with higher vegetation indexes, reproductive rates and milk production in all agro-pastoral districts, and with lower market prices for its products in most. No damages (loss of animals and other physical assets) have been documented and no losses have been quantified, though if any they are likely to have been very small and limited to some poultry in flood-affected urban centers.

A regional locust emergency, however, has emerged in the most recent month, without significant dam-ages to the 2019 Deyr season’s for crops and pastures, but with the potential of a major negative impact on the next (2020 Gu) season production. According to the FAO, 44 agro-pastoral districts are under high risk to their food security and cereal production through June 2020, ranging from 117,000 affected people and 20–30% staple food production losses in the best scenario to 616,000 affected people and 50–75% production losses in the worst scenario.

Thus, short-term emergency needs are limited to compensating farmers for flood-related crops pro-duction losses in three regions (plus a small amount of unrelated production losses in Galgaduud), or about $7.5 million. Irrigation and flood-control needs are covered in more detail and in a more ho-listic way elsewhere in this FINA but amount to about $23 million. Without any quantified dam-ages or losses, short-term flood-related needs for livestock are solely for intensified monitoring and treatment of water-borne disease, or about $2 mil-lion. Locust-related short-term emergency needs, as


estimated by the FAO in January 2020 but currently being re-assessed and likely to increase, amount to another $17.1 million for farming and $2.1 million for livestock households.

The resilience building needs identified for the me-dium (2021–2022)- and long-term (2023–2026) are not only for floods, but also for droughts, as Somalia is likely to suffer from future more frequent and more extreme such climate and the needs for both largely overlap, and for locusts. The overall non-wa-ter early resilience needs for crops agriculture over the medium-term amount to $35 million, with those related to water-for-agriculture amounting to $45 million, and about twice as much in the long-term. The corresponding figure for livestock is $57 million in the medium-term, also doubling for the long-term. This includes medium-term needs for building the federal and state governments’ capac-ity for early-warning systems and control against future locust infestations, which have been ten-tatively estimated at $3.6 million (with about the same also in the long-term).

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Agriculture SectorPre-Flood Sector Context & Analysis16

Agriculture is key to Somalia’s prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction, as the livestock and crops sector remain the main sources of economic activity, employment, and exports. Largely because of the dramatic expan-sion of the relative economic importance of livestock production and exports, agriculture’s share of GDP has risen significantly from its pre-war level of about 62 percent to a peak of 72 percent in 2013–2016 be-fore falling back to around 48% in 2017 due to the impact on the sector of a major drought (Somalia 2019). About 49 percent of the population still lives in rural areas, with 46 percent of employed people working in agriculture (25 percent in crop cultivation, 9 percent in herding, 4 percent in fishing, and 7 per-cent in related activities).

The livestock sector has shown remarkable resil-ience even in the absence of government animal health programs and institutions, with strong per-formance in live animal production and exports through the mid-2010s, but weak performance in livestock products. Its main production systems are nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism. Despite the high and growing demand for good-quality fod-der along trading routes, in market centers, and at terminal ports, the predominant feed production systems still rely mostly on fresh grasses and shrubs on the country’s vast rangelands, and on their straw of low nutritional value. Large dairy farms (of mostly camels) have emerged to supply nearby urban and peri-urban markets with fresh milk; however, there are still no dairy processing facilities outside a few in Mogadishu. Moreover, processing of other livestock product like meat and hides and skins is still minimal and well below pre-war levels. The sector’s produc-tion levels of fresh milk and meat, nonetheless, are close to meeting current self-sufficiency needs, as im-ports of livestock products are minimal and mostly limited to long-life and powder milk and to poultry items. While the private sector and local veterinary associations funded by development partners have provided many critical services, such efforts remain

16 This section is largely culled from the World Bank-FAO joint agriculture report published in 2018. (World Bank-FAO 2018), supplemented and updat-ed by the June 2019 World Bank-FAO input to the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range on a livestock sector development strategy (Somalia 2019).


insufficient to address the serious risk of animal dis-eases and consequent import bans.

The stock of animals (estimated at 56.2 million in 2018) is well past the peak level registered in the late 1980s (about 40 million), and Somalia has more camels (over 7 million) than any oth-er country in the world. Substantial investment in quality improvements has supported an impres-sive growth in livestock exports, with both volumes and values before the December 2016 Saudi and UAE import ban higher than before the civil war. Milk production, especially from camels, has risen steadily since the late 1980s, reaching a market val-ue of about $3.3 billion when last estimated in 2014 (Somalia 2019). Somalia nonetheless still imports dairy products while exporting none. Production of fresh meat has also expanded to meet rising do-mestic demand, but it remains well below potential. Commercial meat processing is limited to very small quantities of chilled goat and beef meat for export.

In contrast, even in the best seasons, perfor-mance of the crop sector has been very weak, providing only about 40–50 percent of per capita cereal needs, even though its potential to recover its prewar levels is high. Continuing insecurity and weak government institutions and the consequent sharp deterioration of flood control, irrigation, and

transport infrastructure in the southcentral regions have severely reduced domestic crop production— cereal production has declined by almost 60 percent from its 1989 pre-war peak, when the sector was the second-largest contributor to GDP and exports after livestock. The crop sector remains crucial for food se-curity, but its contribution to the economy is much smaller than it was. This is because over the past three decades, the combination of increased domes-tic food demand (driven by rapid population growth and urbanization, supported by large remittance in-flows) and the collapse of domestic crop production has led to a massive increase in agricultural imports (currently totaling over $1 billion annually from only about $82 million in the late 1980s).

Irrigated farming systems that grow maize, ses-ame, other food crops, bananas, other fruits, and vegetables, mostly along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, face many constraints. They include (a) much diminished and inconsistent surface wa-ter availability, as a result of the dilapidated state of prewar irrigation and flood control infrastructure in southern Somalia; (b) inefficient water use, increased salinization, and water logging; (c) poor soil fertili-ty management; (d) low-quality and limited retail availability of only few seed varieties; (e) limited and unreliable mechanized equipment; (f ) badly deterio-rated roads; and (g) inappropriate farming techniques, as a result of the absence of extension and research services. Another, potentially overwhelming, threat to Somalia’s irrigated crop production is agricultur-al development upstream in the Ethiopian basins of the Shabelle and Juba rivers, which has contributed to more erratic flows in its two major rivers.

Under rainfed farming, a production system geared mainly to meet subsistence needs of rural households, the major crops grown are sorghum, cowpea, and, to a lesser extent, maize and sesa-me (as well as khat and millet in the northwest). The main constraints faced by rainfed farming sys-tems include: (a) lower and more erratic rainfall than in the past, resulting in more frequent and intense cycles of droughts and floods; (b) deteriorated wa-ter harvesting and storage infrastructure; (c) poor soil management, resulting in very low moisture reten-


tion and inadequate internal drainage; and (d) very low-input farming techniques.

Poor state of water and transport infrastruc-ture prevents agricultural development. Somalia, including its southcentral regions, is a mostly semi-arid country, where water is one of the main sources of conflict between nomadic pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Water infrastructure to harness river water, extract groundwater, and harvest rain-water, however, has severely deteriorated since the outbreak of the civil war in the southcentral regions, due to lack of regular maintenance and repairs, pro-longed insecurity, weak government institutions, and the absence of effective community organiza-tions. The already insufficient pre-war road network is also in extremely poor conditions. As a result, live-stock survival during severe droughts has become dependent on very costly and often unaffordable privately-owned water tankers, the cultivated area under irrigation has shrunk to only about half the esti-mated 222,950 hectares before the war, and the total rainfed area under cultivation is also much reduced. Access by producers to inputs and urban markets is also very costly, and sometime very difficult.

Weak security and institutions stymie agriculture resilience and growth. The long civil war resulted in extreme lack of security in southcentral Somalia. Armed militias with little farming skills and expe-rience continue to occupy prime farmland in the Lower Shabelle region. Political (and taxation) con-trol over much of the riverine and inter-riverine areas is still being contested between Al-Shabaab, a ter-rorist insurgency movement, and the national army supported by an African Union peace-keeping con-tingent. The continuing insecurity makes access to farms and market outlets risky, costly, and unprof-itable; and interventions by aid agencies extremely challenging. Ministries at the federal and state level provide agricultural services in southcentral Somalia in only a very limited, fragmented, and inefficient way, because of lack of skilled staff and funding and poor access to most rural areas.

There is also a lingering vacuum in the poli-cy functions, monitoring, and services normally

provided by government. Grazing disputes be-tween neighboring pastoral clans have become more common since the collapse of the pre–civil war government. Recent expansion of private enclosures on traditionally open rangelands, especially along livestock migration and transport corridors and ur-ban centers, have exacerbated tensions. Even in the more secure northern regions, neither government nor community institutions appear capable of deal-ing with such disputes. A complete registry of farms survived the civil war, but regardless of evidence and rulings, landholders who left their farms in southern Somalia during the civil war are still unable to re-claim their land, because of insecurity, the weakness of traditional arbitration, and the absence of modern judicial institutions.

Environmental degradation and climate change have intensified. Severe deforestation and soil ero-sion from unregulated human activity, overgrazing of rangelands and climate change threaten not on-ly the growth prospects but also the viability of Somalia’s traditional nomadic pastoralism and rain-fed crop cultivation (World Bank-FAO 2018; Somalia 2019). By 2014, forests covered only 10 percent of the country’s land area, down from 62 percent before 1980. The move toward more private en-closures for livestock grazing and semi-permanent family shelters has exacerbated deforestation, and the phenomenon is still gathering speed. Weather phenomena—including fluctuations in air and sea temperatures, rainfall, humidity, cloud cover, atmo-spheric pressure, and wind speed—have already become increasingly unpredictable and extreme across the Horn of Africa. Most climate models pre-dict higher rainfall, although historical evidence, both recent and prehistoric, suggests that the cli-mate will become drier. Nonetheless, most scientists agree on a warmer future, with increased variability and frequency of extreme rainfall events.

The threat of global climate change is dire for Somalia’s agriculture. Beyond more frequent (ev-ery two-three years) and extreme cyclical droughts and floods, higher air temperatures will increase transpiration from soil, tree canopies, and water bod-ies. More variable and extreme rainfall on already


barren soils will result in more run-off and erosion, less groundwater recharge, and less water availabili-ty in the surface layers for plant growth. Other likely impacts include reduction of vegetation for grazing and more variable water availability, with grave im-pacts on livestock herding and related livelihoods.

For the country, nonetheless, some 3 million hect-ares (about 5 percent of Somalia’s total land) are cultivable, most of these in the southcentral re-gions as mentioned above, with 2.3 million under rainfed conditions and 700,000 hectares suitable for either pump or recession-controlled irriga-tion. Almost two-thirds of cultivable land, both rainfed and irrigated, is in the fertile areas along and between the two major rivers in the southern regions. Rainfed areas rely mostly on groundwater extraction, rainfall harvesting, flood recession and moisture retaining techniques. The Shabelle and Juba river basins have for centuries provided and can still provide much needed surface and groundwater for irrigation and to sustain fertile alluvial flood plains covering a total area 174,600 km2 (World Bank-FAO 2018; Somalia 2019). The high-potential cultivable ar-ea under irrigation was estimated by the FAO in 2012 through remote-sensing methods at 591,325 hect-ares (FAO-SWALIM 2012). Most of this land is in the Shabelle River basin (475,620 hectares), but some of it is in the Juba River basin (115,075 hectares. This estimate of the high potential cultivable area under ir-rigation is 5.3 times the currently irrigated area in the Shabelle and Juba basins (110,800 hectares) and 2.6 times the prewar irrigated area (222,950 hectares). In recent years, however, only a fraction of irrigable land was irrigated and cultivated—less than 20 percent of potential and 50 percent of irrigated land before the war, because much of the flood control, irrigation, and transport infrastructure is either not functioning or in a very poor state, as a result of direct damage in-flicted during the civil war or lack of security.

Despite the postwar collapse of crops agriculture, the potential to recover its late 1980s peak remains high, by both the small-scale farmers who are still

mainly responsible for 70 percent of the national cereal production in the Shabelle and Juba River ba-sins (Basnyat 2007) and the more commercial, larger farmers devoted to other staple foods crops (like sesame), fruits and vegetables. While average yields for both irrigated and rainfed crops are current-ly very low, if the constraints were fully addressed, the expert consensus is that average yields could in-crease by a factor of four to six for maize and three for sorghum. Widespread adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, including use of better-quality seeds, would increase both resilience and growth for key rainfed crops, for which both yields and total area under cultivation could be doubled or even tripled. (World Bank-FAO 2018).

For farmers to place more land under cultivation and increase their productivity and for the country to start mitigating the negative impact of extreme climate events such as drought and floods, improvements to the flood control and irrigation infrastructure are badly needed. Recession flood agriculture is totally dependent upon flooding patterns and often leads to the localized destruction of crops by unexpected additional flooding arising from breakage and failure levels. In the short-term, however, the subsector of-fers huge opportunities for stronger resilience and higher growth, because it is a low-cost, low-input system that is less sensitive than an irrigation system to security risks. Nonetheless, all such improvements, and especially in the irrigated and irrigable areas along the rivers of southern Somalia, require stron-ger security in rural areas, supportive and efficient public institutions, and engaged international devel-opment partners (World Bank-FAO 2018).

Post-Flood Sector Context & Analysis17

In contrast to the moderate drought and low-er-than-average river levels seen during the early months (March-May) of the preceding Gu 2019 season, the overall rainfall performance in terms of amount and distribution during the ear-ly months (October-early November) of the Deyr 2019 season was above average in southcentral

17 This section draws liberally from FSNAU and FAO briefs, updates and presentations in December 2019 and January 2020, supplemented by NDvI information supplied by FAO, SWALIM and IPSOS.


Somalia, with excessive rainfall in some areas (as well as many parts of the northern regions) and both the Shabelle and Juba rivers reaching peak water levels. Unlike the Juba which remained at moderate flood risk level, the Shabelle in Beletweyn and Jowhar exceeded high flood risk levels. These short-term developments occurred in the context of severe, long-term deterioration of the entire irri-gation and flood-control infrastructure (lower river embankments from erosion, higher river beds from buildup of silt, non-functioning water reservoirs and irrigation canals) due to lack of, or minimal, main-tenance and repairs during the past three decades. Combined with man-made breaches of the river em-bankments in many locations for farmers to access scarce water for irrigation needs during past drought periods, the result was severe river floods and flash floods in localized areas along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, and in the Bay interriverine region.

The most flood-affected areas were towns (espe-cially Beletweyn) and other urban settlements along the rivers, but also patches of agricultur-al areas where immature crops were submerged, especially in Hiraan, Middle Shabelle and Gedo. Reports from SWALIM in November 2019 based on satellite image analysis for flooded areas along the Shabelle river estimated that more than 128,066 hect-ares (ha), of which more than 50 percent cultivated land (80,041 ha), had been affected. Similarly, riverine floods along the Juba affected a total of 79,229 ha, of which about 38 percent (29,748 ha) cultivated land.

Most farmers operating in flood-affected areas, however, were able to replant soon after the floods receded, with irrigated farms benefiting from ample availability of river water and rain-fed farms taking advantage of the moisture left in the soil and of late rains into January. The Deyr rains also replenished pasture and water and

fostered improvements in livestock body condi-tions, grazing livestock herd sizes on suddenly lush rangelands, and higher milk production in both rural areas and around major urban centers. Thanks also to the increased agricultural employ-ment opportunities in most agro-pastoral areas and favorable conditions for improved, though late, cere-al production, food security was also much improved in most districts throughout the country already by the end of the year. In fact, most rural livelihood zones of Somalia were classified in December below emer-gency levels, as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1). With the arrival of a near long-term aver-age 2019 Deyr harvest, further improvements in the overall food security situation have been observed, including for Galgadud which moved from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

The very good vegetation conditions across most cultivated areas as well as rangelands of Somalia are very starkly shown in Figures 8 and 9. The former map highlights the differences be-tween the end-2019 NDvI with respect to its past 10-year average.18 According to the maps available for each dekad and for most countries on the Earth Observation website of the FAO,19 similar NDvI con-ditions were already established by the first dekad of November and persisted through the second dekad of January (latest available at the time of this writing).20 The second map (Figure 9) shows NDvI changes between December 2019 and December 2018 for both cultivated and non-cultivated areas of all districts in the southcentral regions and confirms the strong improvement in vegetation cover during the last year in most areas covered by this assess-ment, with the exception of few areas, notably Luuq in Gedo and Jowhar in Middle Juba.21

Broad food price trends in the latter part of 2019 corroborate the above-mentioned picture of

18 The Normalized Difference vegetation Index (NDvI) is closely related to the vegetation vigor, measuring the difference between near-infrared (which vegetation strongly reflects) and red light (which vegetation absorbs). NDvI always ranges from –1 to +1.19 http://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/country/index.jsp?code=SOM.20 While there is no calibration study specific for Somalia relating NDvI to yields of its major crops, the satellite image-based NDvI has been recognized at least since the early 1980s in the scientific literature for its ability to monitor crops and as an estimator o f crop yields, especially of leafy plants (such as grasses but also grains) and is widely used due to its low cost as a forecasting tool in advance of harvests of various crops. 21 Supplied by IPSOS, an independent consultancy company specialized in remote sensing analysis.


Source: FAO.

FIGURE 8: NDVI FOR SOMALIA – RELATIVE DIFFERENCE TO LONG-TERM AVERAGE

an overall positive impact across the country from the heavy rains and even from the floods. According to the official government estimates of the CPI for Benadir (Mogadishu), the change be-tween December 2019 and November 2019 in the CPI-food component (comprising of both locally produced crop and livestock food items as well as imported ones) was –2.6 percent. It was also slight-ly negative (–0.1 percent) for the previous month, when the floods occurred and when there was still no Deyr harvest in the market.22

Desert Locust Threat: Current Situation23

The increased precipitation during 2018–2019 in the Arabian Peninsula, associated with exception-ally high rainfall and cyclones in May and October 2018 and compounded by cyclone Pawan in November 2019 that also hit northern Somalia’s coastal areas, have supported the uncontrolled de-velopment of up to three generations and the spread of Desert Locusts to Somalia. Heavy rains and wet soils create conducive conditions for breeding, as moist sandy or sandy/clay soil offers the perfect

22 Federal Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development, Directorate of National Statistics (MOPIED-DNS) http://www.dns.org.so/con-sumer-price-index/.23 This section is largely based on FAO 2020.


Source: IPSOS.

FIGURE 9: NDVI FOR SOUTHCENTRAL SOMALIA – RELATIVE DIFFERENCE TO DECEMBER 2018

breeding grounds (bare areas for egg-laying and green vegetation for hopper development). The second half of 2019 saw large numbers of swarms invading from Iran the Indo-Pakistan border and, by June 2019, from Yemen to northern Somalia and Ethiopia, where more breeding occurred, and more swarms formed. Between October and December, these swarms moved on to Eritrea, Djibouti, east-ern Ethiopia, including its Somali region (Ogaden) and to southcentral Somalia, reaching as far south as northeastern Kenya. The October-December rainy season in southern parts of East Africa (Somalia, Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia) was characterized by exceptionally heavy precipitation, with parts of

Kenya and southern Somalia receiving the high-est rainfall volumes on record since 1981, up to three times the long-term average. The increase of biomass to above-average levels contributed to fur-ther intensification of the desert locust outbreak.

While the Desert Locust migration to Somalia’s south-ern bread basket so far coincided with the tail end of the Deyr agricultural season, impact on pasture and crops (for the ongoing Deyr harvest has been localized and limited primarily to late planted crops at milking stage. The impact on crops has been in-cluded in the next section. Impact on pasture, while unquantified, has also been narrow and localized,


Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

FIGURE 10: LOCUSTS SWARMS IN EAST AFRICA

thanks to above average pasture and browse con-ditions across the country The most recent FSNAU bulletin on the locust threat issued in mid-February reconfirms that the losses, which remain unquanti-fied, so far to the Deyr crop and pastures were very limited and localized, in other words, if any at all, they were very small and trumped by the gains and losses mentioned above due to other factors such as rain-fall, floods, fungus or insecurity.

As of mid-January 2020, the Desert Locust sit-uation in Somalia remains critical, given the ever-expanding areas affected and the continued hatching and formation of hoppers and swarms. Locust Watch has changed its warning flag from “Caution” to “Threat”, with new generations still devel-oping in the northern Somalia’s districts of Lughaye, Zeylac, Burco, Buuhoodle and Laas Caanood and recent government surveys revealing that vast num-bers of hoppers, immature as well as mature adults have already migrated south to Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South-West states. According to government field reports, some agro-pastoral households in Beletweyn, Luuq, Baardheere,

Garbahaarey, Belet xaawo, Doolow, Ceel Barde, xudur, Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Buur Hakaba and Qansax Dheere (Hiraan, Galgaduud, Bakool and Bay re-

gions) have been affected by Desert Locusts swarms. However, most of these initial swarms have now moved to Kenya.

Desert Locust Threat: Emergency and Medium-Term NeedsThe latest seasonal precipitation predictions (provided by the World Climate Service) forecast above-normal rainfall in the spring breeding areas of northern Somalia through February, fol-lowed by normal rains. This higher moisture level will create ideal conditions for the hatching of eggs, while green vegetation throughout the country will support the development (up to 500 times recent levels) and migration south of a new generation of locusts in Somalia. Depending on the direction of the winds in the next few months, locusts may al-so migrate back from Kenya into southern Somalia. According to the FSNAU latest estimates, 44 agro-pastoral districts are under high risk to their food security and staple food production through June 2020, ranging from 117,000 affected people and 20–30% production losses in the best scenario to 616,000 affected people and 50–75% production losses in the worst scenario. Moreover, Somalia is likely to face more frequent (possibly annually) locust invasions beyond 2020 originating from Yemen and carried by southerly winds across the Gulf of Aden at least until when the conflict in Yemen will subside and its gov-ernment will be able to suppress, as in the historical past before its civil war, its local locust population.

Thus, the risk to both pasture and crops in 2020 (Gu and Deyr) remains high and critical, given the ever-expanding areas affected and the con-tinued hatching and formation of hoppers and swarms, and requires institutional, infrastruc-tural and technical investments for larger scale operations in 2020, but also beyond. Through July 2020 (GU harvest time), 180,000 hectares are ex-pected by the FAO to require some form of direct control, and 24,000 agro-pastoral households along the Somali side of the border with Ethiopia are like-ly to require cash and agricultural input support to minimize or quickly recover from damages to the yet-to-be-planted GU crop. Depending on the scale of the development and migration of locust swarms,


pasture on the vast rangelands will also be negative-ly affected, with about 15,000 households requiring supplementary feed for their animals.

For an initial emergency response (through July 2020) covering also Ethiopia and Kenya, the FAO issued in mid-January an international appeal for $70 million, of which $18.55 million would be ear-marked for meeting Somalia’s needs.24 Within this total, the FAO tentatively allocated $18.55 million for the following emergency interventions in Somalia: (i) curbing the spread of Desert Locusts with a cost estimate of $11.05 million, of which $8.55 million are for ground and air control operations and $2.5 million are for ground surveillance and impact assessment; and (ii) safeguarding livelihoods, with a cost estimate of $7.5 million, of which $3.6 million are for cash sup-port to households, $1.5 million are for livestock feed stockpiling and distribution, and $2.4 million are for farming input packages. Since there is great uncer-tainty over where and when exactly the winds will carry locust swarms in the next six months, howev-er, and since there are also other medium-term needs to build facilities and capacity to deal with likely fu-ture such threats, flexible funding of emerging needs for Somalia (and neighboring countries) will be criti-cal for the effective response to this rapidly evolving crisis. In fact, the FAO is about to update its regional appeal and cost estimates, with the revised emergen-cy needs expected to exceed $30 million for Somalia.

Given the continuing conflict in neighboring Yemen and the end of traditional funding (by Saudi Arabia) and interventions for the con-trol of Desert Locusts in that country, it is likely that Somalia will face much more frequent such threats in coming years, from future generations of Desert Locusts crossing south over the Gulf of Aden, than it ever experienced in recent decades. Thus, beyond the emergency funding requested by the FAO, this FINA also includes a tentative provision for $4 million for the rebuilding in the medium- and long-term of a locust early warning and control sys-tem that collapsed soon after the civil war. The former

covers rebuilding and new construction of facilities, including disposal of 30-year old stocks of hazard-ous pesticide that sit abandoned, dilapidated, and unguarded in pre-war such facilities in the northern regions; provision of vehicles and other resources for staff mobility and training and other capacity build-ing for Somalia’s federal and state governments to mount rapid control responses to future threats, in coordination with international specialized agencies like the FAO.

Agriculture – Crops

Post-Flood Context and Impact on the Agriculture-Crops SectorSomalia’s cultivated areas are prone to drought and flooding, and especially sensitive to the former. In 2016/17, the country suffered from severe drought that caused major damages to agricultural assets, production losses and food shortages and price spikes. The Shabelle river ex-perienced hydrological drought episodes that were unprecedented. Most (around 80 percent) banana production was lost. Less than two years later, the southcentral regions experienced another moderate drought during the planting and growing phas-es (March-May) of the 2019 Gu season, followed by floods during the planting and growing phas-es (October-November) of the 2019 Deyr season. Unlike the widespread and major impact on agricul-ture of the 2016/17 drought that covered the whole country, however, the impact of the recent floods has been much more limited and localized. One of the most important cultivated regions affected by the floods is Middle Shabelle, where, according to the local government’s office, a total of 119 villag-es and 27,024 households in Jowhar, Mahaday and Balad were affected, with an estimated 56,148 ha of cultivated land for staple, fruit and vegetable crops impacted by the floods (see Table 2).

As of the time of this writing, however, there is no available, reliable information from the govern-ment, SWALIM or other agencies about specific

24 FAO (2020), DESERT LOCUST CRISIS: Appeal for rapid response and anticipatory action in the Greater Horn of Africa, January–July 2020.


TABLE 2: TOWNS, HOUSEHOLDS AND CULTIVATED AREAS AFFECTED BY

FLOODS IN MIDDLE SHABELLE

District/towns

No. of villages

Total families

Total cultivated area (ha)

Jowhar 54 12,085 25,031

Mahadaay 40 9,801 22,443

Balad 25 5,138 8,674

Total 119 27,024 56,148

Source: Administration of the Middle Shabelle region, Office of the Governor.

damages to the irrigation and flood control in-frastructure, such as new segments of breached embankments that were possibly caused by the recent floods. Such assessment may be forthcom-ing from SWALIM in a few weeks, but in any case, the short-term damage from the floods is believed to be relatively small in comparison to the massive long-term damage that such infrastructure has suf-fered since 1990. And neither is there any available information or reports from the field on damage to farming assets, such as storage buildings and ma-chinery, in the flooded cultivated areas. Nonetheless, despite the lack of any quantified damages from the floods, an effort has been made below to identify, estimate and summarize at least some of the medi-um-and long-term resilience-building needs for the repair and rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage infrastructure and other flood control infrastructure critical to crops agriculture along both rivers.

Furthermore, as already illustrated in Section 2.2, agricultural experts generally believe that there were significant positive changes for most if not all cultivated areas resulting from the above-average Deyr rains, the higher river levels and from enhanced availability of flood recession irrigation in both irrigated and rain-fed crop pro-duction (pasture and agriculture crops). While some farmers in very narrow and localized areas in some of the cultivated districts of the southcentral regions have certainly suffered financially from the floods that affected their recently planted crops, most have swiftly replanted and either have already

recovered or are about to recover their initial losses from a strong late Deyr harvest. Emergency support packages (cash and farming inputs) provided by the FAO in November as part of its continuing assis-tance programs to very poor small farmers, helped to mitigate the farmers’ initial plight. Such overall as-sessment is supported by the analysis below of the available production data, which show large gains for most districts and regions, but also point to some, relatively small, losses, in a few districts and regions. In the latter cases, there are also other reasons but the floods that may be behind such losses, as shall be mentioned below.

Two independent sources for NDVI changes over the cultivated districts of southcentral Somalia present a similar picture, of better to much bet-ter vegetation conditions for most areas in December 2019 (normal start of the Deyr harvest period) when compared to either the long-term average (Figure 11; source: SWALIM) and a year earlier (Figure 12; IPSOS). Negative NDvI differenc-es were still persisting in December 2019 in a narrow band along both the Shabelle river, especially near Beletweyn, and along the Juba river. While some-what reduced from a month earlier (see first panel of Figure 12), moderate negative NDvI differences were also still apparent away from the Shabelle river in Jowhar and Balad districts for December 2019 (see both Figures 11 and 12). However, even here, when the entire districts are considered, NDvI changes from a year before are positive (see Table 3).

For some but not all of the crops grown in the southcentral regions, summary gains and losses at the regional level are shown in Table 4, based on estimates of volumes and January 2019 pric-es for all cultivated districts. Aggregate gross production value gains between the Deyr 2019 (including projected off-season production) and Deyr 2018 amount to $17.6 million (+32 percent), gross losses to $7.5 million (minus 42 percent) and thus net overall gains are $10.1 (+14 per-cent) for all southern regions and Galgaduud. Regionally, significant net losses related to the floods have been recorded for Middle Shabelle (minus 40 percent, one of the regions indeed


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0 60 12030 km The boundaries and names and the designations used onthis map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance

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FAO1/30/[email protected]

Data Source:Date Created:

Contact:Website:

PERCENTAGE NDVI CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND (Nov-Dec 2019 Over 10-Year Nov-Dec LTA)

Map Produced by: The Somalia Water and Land Information Management Project (SWALIM).SWALIM is a Multi-donor Project Implemented by the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization.

For copies of digital data please contact: [email protected] projection: Geographic Coordinates, WGS 84 datum.

Methodology

The percentage NDVI difference was produced by Subracting the Mean NDVI for a 10 year Period between 2009(November-December) to 2018 (November-December), from NDVI for the same months period of 2019 and devided by Mean NDVI for a 10 year period and multiplied by 100

((2019 NDVI – Mean Long term NDVI) *100 / Mean long term NDVI)

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Districts Percentage NDVI Change Districts Percentage

NDVI ChangeAdan Yabaal 26 Dhuusamarreeb 30Afgooye 26 Diinsoor 34Afmadow 15 Doolow 39Baardheere 38 Garbahaarey 41Badhaadhe 22 Jalalaqsi 46Balcad 12 Jamaame 26Banadir -12 Jilib 11Baraawe 42 Jowhar 23Baydhaba 31 Kismaayo 24Belet Weyne 50 Kurtunwaarey 35Belet Xaawo 49 Luuq 37Bu'aale 12 Marka 26Bulo Burto 52 Qansax Dheere 32Buur Hakaba 38 Qoryooley 30Cabudwaaq 36 Rab Dhuure 89Cadaado 12 Saakow 36Cadale 21 Sablaale 21Ceel Barde 75 Tayeeglow 43Ceel Buur 27 Waajid 52Ceel Dheer 28 Wanla Weyn 31Ceel Waaq 50 Xudur 62

PERCENTAGE NDVI CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND (1ST NOV 31ST DEC 2019)

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Map Ref: SOM_NDVI_PERCENTAGE_DIFFERENCE_SWALIM_29012020_A0_

±

SOMALIA

0 40 8020 km The boundaries and names and the designations used onthis map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance

by the United Nations.

FAO1/30/[email protected]

Data Source:Date Created:

Contact:Website:

PERCENTAGE NDVI CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND (Nov-Dec 2019 Over 10-Year Nov-Dec LTA)

Map Produced by: The Somalia Water and Land Information Management Project (SWALIM).SWALIM is a Multi-donor Project Implemented by the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization.

For copies of digital data please contact: [email protected] projection: Geographic Coordinates, WGS 84 datum.

!.Belet Weyne

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Methodology

The percentage NDVI difference was produced by Subracting the Mean NDVI for a 10 year Period between 2009(November-December) to 2018 (November-December), from NDVI for the same months period of 2019 and devided by Mean NDVI for a 10 year period and multiplied by 100

((2019 NDVI – Mean Long term NDVI) *100 / Mean long term NDVI)

Kenya

Legend!. Major Towns

River

District boundary

Percentage Difference to LTA

<-75

<-50

<-25

<-10

Normal

>10

>25

>50

>75

Flooded Agriculture Extent 2019

Source: FAO-SWALIM 2020.

FIGURE 11: NDVI CHANGE FOR NON-CULTIVATED AREAS – DECEMBER 2019 OVER 10-YEAR LTA

TABLE 3: NDVI CHANGES FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2019 OVER SAME MONTHS 2018

Cultivated

District November December

Afgooye 38 41

Afmadow 14 25

Baardheere 25 30

Balcad 22 27

Baraawe 57 84

Baydhaba 39 49

Beletweyn 32 48

Bu’aale 4 9

Bulo Burto 52 86

Buur Hakaba 61 60

Cadale 20 36

Diinsoor 23 22

Doolow 58 13

Garbahaarey 27 18(continued on next page)


Source: IPSOS 2020.

FIGURE 12: NDVI CHANGE FOR NON-CULTIVATED AREAS – DEYR 2019 OVER DEYR 2018

Cultivated

District November December

Jalalaqsi 69 73

Jamaame 27 30

Jilib 28 110

Jowhar 31 33

Kurtunwaarey 36 47

Luuq 45 17

Marka 33 48

Qansax Dheere 30 28

Qoryooley 38 34

Rab Dhuure 75 66

Saakow 23 14

Sablaale 34 34

Waajid 57 42

Wanla Weyn 47 58

xudur 43 42

Source: IPSOS, January 2020.

TABLE 3: NDVI CHANGES FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2019 OVER SAME MONTHS 2018 (continued)


TABLE 4: REGIONAL GAINS/LOSSES IN STAPLE FOOD CROPS AND SELECTED OTHERS, DEYR 2019 VS 2018

FINA-FSNAU FINA-FSNAU FINA-FSNAU

District US$ Baseline US$ Change %

Bakool 352,751 594,947 169

Bay 4,624,124 4,939,194 599

Galgaduud 3,045,000 –940,000 –31

Gedo 8,382,616 –2,153,085 –26

Hiraan 4,942,765 –1,846,935 –37

Middle Juba 2,288,164 2,670,246 117

Lower Juba 1,449,433 1,163,399 80

Middle Shabelle 6,397,471 –2,572,741 –40

Lower Shabelle 42,057,740 8,225,522 20

All Regions Above 73,540,065 10,080,548 14

of which: gains (gross)

55,714,978 17,593,308 32

of which: losses (gross)

17,825,087 –7,512,760 –42

Source: staff estimates based on (i) production (including off-season) and (January 2019 baseline) prices from FSNAU for staple crops and available production for selected fruits (e.g. tomatoes; watermelons) and vegetables (e.g. onions) in selected districts/regions; (ii) 2014 baseline prices for the DINA for these other crops; and (iii) staff guess-estimates of banana production and prices.

most affected the recent floods), Hiraan (minus 37 percent), and Gedo (minus 26 percent). In Middle Shabelle, the two districts out of its four dis-tricts with recorded net production losses are Balad/Warsheik (minus $0.5 million or 32 percent) and Jowhar/Mahaday (minus $2.1 million or 46 percent). While much production in the region takes place away from the rivers on agro-pastoral lands, such recorded losses are consistent with the reports of flooding of cultivated areas mentioned above as well as the negative changes observed in the NDvI from remote sensing. As regards flood-affected Hiraan, in-season Deyr production in all districts is indeed less than in the baseline, but many farmers have been (re-)planting maize and sorghum and sesame after mid-November to take advantage of “reces-sion farming”. Despite this positive impact, already factored into the total production estimates for the 2019 Deyr in-season and off-season, Beletweyn dis-trict still suffered a large net loss of about $2.2 million or minus 85 percent, mainly from reduced harvest of onions and tomatoes that trumped the mod-est gains in its main staple food production. Thanks

to small gains estimated for the other two districts, net losses for the region as a whole are $1.8 million (or minus 37 percent). In Gedo, all of its five districts experienced net production losses, ranging from mi-nus 16 to minus 37 percent, adding up to a regional net loss of $2.2 million (minus 26 percent).

Losses unrelated to the floods were recorded also for Galgaduud (minus 31 percent), a semi-arid region with only rainfed crop production. The only two cultivated districts of Ceel Dheer and Ceel Bur in Galgaduud in fact benefitted from the above-average rains, as the changes in the NDvI in-dex for these districts suggest. The reasons for their lower production are not to be found in the recent floods, but elsewhere. Cowpea is the main staple for local households, grown under rainfed conditions intercropped with sorghum, so yield in these dis-tricts is higher than other regions of Somalia when seasonal rainfall is good, as it indeed was these past three months. However, the current Deyr’s lower production compared to a year earlier is because of widespread damage caused by a non-flood related


fungus, which reduced yield and area harvested in these districts. Due to a compulsory recruitment drive of youth by Al-Shabab, many farms were also not planted this past season. As for the high baseline value for the crop production in this region (most-ly cowpeas and some sorghum), the explanation lies in the fact that cowpea prices are always significantly higher than those of cereals, and, moreover, the price of sorghum in the region is triple that prevailing in the major cereal production areas of Bay and Bakool and in the Shabelle valley.

In the Lower Shabelle, the recorded overall net gains for all its districts are due to the large “guess-estimated” production gains for banana, as otherwise staple crop production show (rel-atively small) negative changes. While the floods in Lower Shabelle affected only localized areas of Qoryooley and Kunturwaarey and the available rains and river water benefitted its banana plantations, there were other factors noted by the FSNAU for the relatively low production estimates of staple crops. In Marka, a large, late (Gu) offseason crop was har-vested in November, which overlapped with Deyr season planting and this, in turn, reduced the Deyr production estimates for the area. During the crop assessment by FSNAU in December, many farmers interviewed in riverine Marka were still undecided in terms of what type of crop they were going to plant as offseason (maize versus sesame or vegetable) to be harvested in March. A similar situation applies to some parts of the Afgooye riverine areas. Another factor keeping production of staple crops relatively low was insecurity where some farmers left their vil-lages and could not plant due to military activities.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Agriculture-CropsDespite the heavy losses from the recent drought and the many challenges that it faces, howev-er, crops agriculture remains both viable and critical to economic recovery and long-term de-velopment. Somalia and the southcentral regions still have large and partly unexploited areas with fer-tile alluvial soils for staple cereals, oil seeds, legumes, and horticulture crops that can support both more efficient production and expanded cultivated area

for both domestic and export markets. Given the decades-long heavy legacy from the civil war and the mounting environmental challenges from global cli-mate change, however, revitalizing and making crop production more resilient will require overcoming foundational issues of water and land management for its cultivated and cultivable areas, both irrigat-ed and rainfed. The regionally significant losses from the recent floods, the major widespread losses re-corded from the 2016/2017 drought, the long-term stagnation in staple food crop production, the un-necessarily very high food imports and the post-war collapse in banana production and exports should ring a loud alarm bell to governments and their in-ternational development partners that it is time to take urgent measures to revive both subsectors to safeguard and improve millions of rural livelihoods.

The sector’s needed approach to drought and flood resilience, in the context of the expected higher frequency and severity of future cycles of droughts and floods, resilience building requires a rapid and tangible start towards better irriga-tion, drainage and flood-control, on-farm and communal storage, farm-to-market access, agri-cultural inputs and widespread adoption of CSA practices and drought and pest-resistant seeds. All this would also foster diversification of farming households’ incomes into better quality and other alternative crops (e.g., nutritious dense vegetables). Note, however, that irrigation, drainage and flood control-related needs are covered in a more compre-hensive way in a separate chapter of this FINA and thus are only partially mentioned and listed here.

The short-, medium- and long-term needs are shown in Table 5. Short-term emergency needs to help the recovery from the floods of poor farm-ers in the form of livelihood support (cash and seed packages) have been assumed to equal the record-ed seasonal production losses. In qualitative terms, the medium-term entries to build resilience to fu-ture extreme climate events that were identified in October-November 2017 for the DINA (Somalia 2018) by a working group consisting of officials from the federal and state relevant ministries, international crops agriculture specialists from the FAO and other


Regions/Needs/Interventions Timeframe

Crops AgricultureShort-term

(2020)Medium-term

(2021–22)Long-term

(2023+ 6 yrs) Cost (USD)

Bakool $ — $ 3,088,402 $ 6,176,804 $ 9,265,207

Bay $ — $ 3,630,978 $ 7,261,956 $ 10,892,934

Galgaduud $ 940,000 $ 3,088,402 $ 5,210,420 $ 9,238,823

Gedo $ 2,153,085 $ 3,850,625 $ 7,701,250 $ 13,704,960

Hiraan $ 1,846,935 $ 2,575,748 $ 5,151,496 $ 9,574,179

Middle Juba $ — $ 2,846,250 $ 5,692,500 $ 8,538,750

Lower Juba $ — $ 3,341,250 $ 6,682,500 $ 10,023,750

Middle Shabelle $ 2,572,741 $ 4,476,354 $ 8,952,708 $ 16,001,802

Lower Shabelle $ — $ 5,814,863 $ 11,629,726 $ 17,444,589

Federal Government (Desert Locust Threat) $ 17,050,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 21,050,000

Total All Regions & FGS (Non-Water) $ 24,562,760 $ 34,712,872 $ 66,459,360 $ 125,734,993

Emergency services provision to poor farmers of staple food & high-quality seeds

$ 7,512,760 $ 5,189,167 $ 10,327,330 $ 23,029,258

Improving farm management practices (incl. SMART, Post-Harvest Handling)

$ — $ 9,767,085 $ 21,303,189 $ 31,070,274

Institutional capacity building for better governance (MOA, other ministries)

$ — $ 7,077,619 $ 12,007,717 $ 19,085,336

Rebuilding agriculture research and extension system

$ — $ 4,913,261 $ 10,363,402 $ 15,276,663

Strengthening informal and building formal seed system

$ — $ 5,765,741 $ 10,457,722 $ 16,223,463

Desert Locust threat, emergency control and rebuilding domestic capacity

$ 17,050,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 21,050,000

Total All Regions & FGS (Non-Water) $ 24,562,760 $ 34,712,872 $ 66,459,360 $ 125,734,993

Memo: total for river management, irrigation & drainage for agriculture (Jan-Feb 2020 FAOSO for FINA + Oct 2017 FAOSO/SWALIM for DINA )

$ 22,936,166 $ 44,584,770 $ 90,373,088 $ 157,894,024

of which: Shabelle upstream canals rehab for flood control, irrigation, pasture

$ 6,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ — $ 12,000,000

of which: Shabelle & Juba other irrigation canals rehab

$ 15,742,534 $ 38,070,302 $ 90,138,678 $ 143,951,514

of which: Shabelle embankments, rehab/improvements (Hiraan & Middle Shabelle)

$ 193,632 $ 514,468 $ 234,410 $ 942,510

of which: Shabelle river de-silting (Hiraan) $ 1,000,000 $ — $ — $ 1,000,000

TABLE 5: DISTRIBUTION OF CROPS AGRICULTURE RECOVERY NEEDS


agencies, and general economists remain valid also in the case of future floods. This can be clearly seen by comparing the entries in Table 5, the latter listing current but uncosted needs as identified by a smaller group in the limited time and under the strict dead-lines of this rapid FINA.

The main components of a short-term and me-dium-term program needed to start addressing the dual goals of recovery from the floods and re-silience building include:

i. rehabilitation of prewar flood control, drain-age and irrigation infrastructures along the two major rivers in southcentral Somalia, for about $158 million ($23 million for 2020 and $45 million for the medium-term 2021–2022) in total over the next seven years 2020–2026, most of which for irrigation ca-nal rehabilitation, without which farmers will continue to breach the Shabelle river em-bankments to access water for their farms at times of severe droughts (note that this estimate is reported in Table 5 “below the line”, because it is expected to be included or otherwise discussed in more detail un-der the separate FINA chapter covering all water-related needs);25

ii. emergency cash assistance and provision of input packages to very poor farmers affect-ed by the recent floods and also by other calamities as in Galgaduud, to deal with the in-evitable future climate-related extreme events ($23 million in total, including also $7.5 million for post-Deyr/pre-Gu short-term assistance);

iii. improved access to and adoption of produc-tivity-enhancing and resilient technologies (CSA practices for SMART cultivation and more modern post-harvest storage techniques and

facilities; $31 million for the medium- and long-terms);

iv. institutions and human capacity building ($19 million for MT/LT-terms);

v. rebuilding/improving on the pre-war re-search and extension system ($15 million, also for MT/LT-terms);

vi. strengthening the informal and (re-)building a formal seed system ($16 million, also for the MT-LT terms);

vii. addressing in the short-term the Desert Locusts emergency threat ($18.5 million re-quested by the FAO, but of which $1.5 million is for livestock-related interventions and thus not included in Table 5) and rebuilding institu-tional capacity to monitor and control future threats ($4 million tentatively estimated for the MT/LT terms); and

viii. others not included at all in Table 5, and still critical for resilience building to flood and oth-er extreme climate events, such as provision of above-ground storage facilities for crops and the rehabilitation of prewar trunk and ru-ral roads to improve transportation of inputs to farms and of produce to markets.

Agriculture – Livestock

Post-Flood Context and Impact on LivestockIn the wet season, Somali pastoralists usually avoid being near the cultivated farms along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, to avoid endemic tse-tse infestation and other vector-borne diseases, and even in the inter-riverine flood plains to minimize conflicts with farmers, and also because they do not need to. After good rains, their herds have access to abundant natural water sources as well as to those man-made watering points (berkads and shallow

25 According to comments received from SWALIM on an early draft of this write-up, among the unquantified damages from the floods that are im-portant for crop cultivation under both irrigated and rainfed conditions is water logging and consequent increased salinization of the affected soils—both of which are adverse to healthy crop production. Before the civil war, there were indeed dedicated areas to land drains along the rivers to allow water to drain away rapidly during excess rainfalls and river floods, and/or to relieve hydrostatic pressure where irrigation is controlled. Such land drains were also part of the government-developed and managed rice and sugar schemes in Middle Shabelle and in Lower Juba. There were al-so diversion and drainage canals specifically intended to provide flood relief, e.g. the Duduble/China canal, which was rehabilitated a few years ago but is again silted up. Land and water management, especially agriculture, irrigation and drainage go hand-in-hand. Thus, the need for an ambitious, comprehensive approach to water and land management and infrastructure rehabilitation in the riverine and inter-riverine southern regions to sup-port the recovery and resilience of Somalia’s crop agriculture.


wells) that survived three decades of lack of mainte-nance and enjoy grazing green grasses and browsing on green shrubs on the vast (and healthier) range-lands. Thus, it is most unlikely that pastoral herds suffered any damage (loss of animals) from the floods.

While it is quite possible, in contrast, for seden-tary agro-pastoral households near the rivers and affected by the floods to have lost a few animals, even in this case, animals being mobile, they are likely to have moved away from the floods, just as people displaced by the floods did. In any case, no reliable reports and no quantitative information were received from the federal and state government or from sector experts and practitioners of animal mortality related to the floods. The only known mor-tality of livestock reported during November was along the Puntland coastline due to the impact of cy-clone Pawan, but this is outside the coverage area of the FINA. Thus, except in some very rare and local-ized cases and possibly for poultry (for which there are no statistics whatsoever), it is reasonable to con-clude that no mortality of livestock and no other damage to natural or man-made livestock watering infrastructure of any economic or social significance was experienced in the southcentral regions related to heavy rains or floods.

The latest update from the FSNAU focused on 2019 post-Deyr (FAO-FSNAU 2020) also strong-ly suggests a positive impact from the heavy rains since September with minimal or no negative im-pact from the October-November floods. Below are the relevant passages, which are based on physical and economic indicators through November 2019. Qualitative feedback received by the FINA team from officials and sector experts fully supports such as-sessment by the FSNAU, as summarized below:

“Pasture, browse and water availability have improved greatly across the country. Current resources are expect-ed to support and sustain livestock needs until the start of the Gu rains in April. In northern and central pastoral areas, where significant livestock loss occurred during the 2016/2017 drought, the availability of saleable animals has continued to gradually improve. However, many poor households are still unable to meet their minimum food needs without selling their animals to the point of

endangering the sustainability of their herds and their livelihoods. Milk availability and access to milk have im-proved food access for a majority of pastoral households. Livestock-to-cereal terms of trade remain generally fa-vorable, providing pastoralists with more than one bag (50kg) of cereals for the sale of one goat. Further im-provements in the terms of trade are expected as market supply from the current Deyr harvest increases and places downward pressure on local cereal prices, and as livestock prices improve due to the anticipated, seasonal increase in demand in the lead up to and during the Ramadan and Hajj festivities between May and August.”

A cursory analysis of NDVI changes between the middle of December 2019 (thus, after floods had receded) and December 2018, furthermore, point to very favorable ecological conditions for livestock prevailing through the end of last year in the non-cultivated districts of the south-central regions (see Figure 13 and Table 6). There is only a single area with worse vegetation coverage than a year ago: Banaadir, where the only livestock herds are of confined camels in dairy farms surround-ing Mogadishu. All other regions show much better vegetation than a year ago, with Hiraan and Gedo in particular displaying the largest positive changes.

Quantitative estimation of the impact of the re-cent floods, in terms of aggregate or localized damages and losses related to drowned animals,


TABLE 6: LIVESTOCK PERFORMANCE INDICATORS BY DISTRICTS

Source: IPSOS.

Goat local quality, market

priceFresh camel milk, market price 1 l

NDVI (for non-cultivated area)

Inferred Production Gain (+)/Loss (–),

based on previous three indicators

Region District % change Dec

2019/2018 % change Dec

2019/2018 % change Dec

2019/2018direction & extent of

change

Bakool 3.7 –47.7 ++ ++

Banaadir Mogadishu 36.3 14.9 –3.3 ––

Bay –7.7 –28.1 ++ ++

Galgaduud –19.2 –55.8 +++ +++

Gedo –2.2 1.4 ++ +

Hiraan 10.9 –14.7 +++ +

Lower Juba 3.3 0.9 ++ none/n.a.

Lower Shabelle

4.4 –24.0 ++ +

Middle Juba 3.0 41.4 + ––

Middle Shabelle

–0.2 –15.0 ++ ++

Sources: Livestock Price changes (Dec 2018/2019), from FSNAU IDS DASHBOARD; NDvI Index changes (Dec 2019/Dec 2018), from IPSOS.Note: To calculate price changes between December 2019 and December 2018, current prices in So. Sh. were not first converted in US$, because the exchange rate between these two periods remained stable.

FIGURE 13: NDVI CHANGE FOR NON-CULTIVATED AREAS – DEYR 2019 OVER DEYR 2019


changes in animal population, and changes in key livestock products like milk and meat, proved not feasible, as very limited, mostly unreliable and only annual historical official figures are available for the sector, except for prices. No dam-ages (e.g. animal deaths) from the floods in southern Somalia were reported either by the government or any other organization. Regarding production es-timates, the best (and only) disaggregated figures that benefited from FSNAU’s professional input and a clear (though still weak) methodology, and that were subjected to an intensive round of review by feder-al and state government livestock ministry officials, livestock experts and general economists are those for the DINA (Somalia 2018), with 2014 baseline and 2017 post-drought estimates. Since then, there were no updates to these figures, except for region-al population estimates through 2018, as reported in the LSDS (Somalia 2019).26 So there is no way to derive credible quantitative gains and losses for the livestock sector for a narrow and time-limited event like the October-November floods, as instead done above for the crops sector for which reliable season-al production estimates are available.

The evidence (or lack of) from available quali-tative and quantitative sources, including NDVI and some price changes, suggest no damag-es and positive gains across virtually all of the flood-affected regions analyzed for this assess-ment. The most recent available price and NDvI change indicators shown in Table 5.1 allow some in-ferences to be made as to the direction and extent of change in livestock sector performance. If all oth-er things remain constant (e.g. demand), the price of any good or service would be expected to move up when its supply to the market (from produc-tion or inventories) is reduced and down when its supply increases. The direction and extent of such (visible) changes in the market prices of key items for the livestock sector like goat and camel milk can thus offer clues as to the underlying changes in their market availability and production. Changes in the

NDvI add another important type of information, as all other things being equal, a higher NDvI is expect-ed to correlate with higher reproduction rates for livestock and higher yields and production of its key products, such as milk.

In most of the regions, either all three indicators agree or two out of the three agree, sometimes strongly so, in the direction of positive produc-tion changes (gains, marked in the last column of Table 5.1 with + signs). Only in a single case all three agree in the opposite direction (of loss-es, marked with – signs). This latter case is that of Benadir (Mogadishu), which, however, has a very small production base of its own (mostly of camel dairy farms) and largely depends on livestock im-ports from neighboring regions for meat (and live animal exports). In the case of the Lower Juba, there is a strong improvement in the NDvI (suggesting high-er production), but prices also move up (suggesting lower market availability). Here too, the increases in the price indicators are so small that the best infer-ence for production gains or losses is none (or not available).

The one true outlier is the Al-Shabaab-infested region Middle Juba, where the price of milk is around 41 percent higher than the year be-fore, implying a major deterioration in market availability. This could have been from either low-er production or major disruptions in its collection from the countryside and transport to town markets. As both panels of Figure 11 clearly show, the flood-ed areas were in a narrow strip of land along the river, and thus very unlikely to have caused direct damag-es and losses to livestock that, as explained above, would have been on pastureland far away from the river. Other causes, including possibly security-related developments making access by pastoralists and traders to town markets more difficult than a year ear-lier, must be behind the large price increase recorded for camel milk and the very small price increase for goat. While unlikely to be related to the floods, any

26 FAOSTAT historical time series are (still) unreliable, based as they have been since the 1990s not on independent scientific estimation and/or ex-pert consensus, but on unknown official government sources who continued to report in past years, even when there were no ministry staff at all below minister and DG levels.


possible production losses in Middle Juba could nei-ther be quantified not better explained than was attempted above in the time and with the budgetary resources available for this task.

Recovery and Resilience Needs and Strategy for LivestockEven though the livestock sector in southcentral Somalia was not affected negatively by the re-cent floods, as explained in the preceding Section 5, it faces daunting challenges to overcome ma-jor constraints to becoming more resilient to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods and to unleashing its growth potential. If such constraints can be adequately addressed, there is indeed strong scope to improve the sector’s resilience and growth performance in the medium- and long-term, in both live animals and livestock products.

Despite the lack of any recorded damages and losses from the floods, two emergency short-term needs to deal over the next 6–11 months (during 2020) with flood and locust-related risks have been identified and costed. First, there is a need to deal with the heightened risk to live-stock health from a slate of endemic vector-borne diseases associated with the floods and with above-average wet soil conditions still persistent at the time of this writing. This will require height-ened monitoring and treatment of 4 million animals at high risk of such vector-borne zoonotic diseas-es (with an estimated short-term cost of $2 million). And second, there is an urgent need to prepare for the looming threat of a massive Desert Locust invasion of the pastures, which may drastically re-duce the availability of fodder especially on the rangelands bordering with Ethiopia and Kenya. For the southcentral regions covered by this as-sessment, the interventions required to deal with this threat include cash support to (likely to be af-fected) agro-pastoral households, which is already included in the needs table for crops (see Table 4.1 in section 2.3 above). Other livestock-specific emer-gency interventions included in Table 6.1 related to the looming locust invasion are building at least six emergency feed storage centers ($0.6 million), and

procuring, transporting, storing and distributing (as needed) fodder and concentrated feed cubes to agro-pastoral families whose animals may be left without available grasses and shrubs to graze and browse on ($1.5 million).

Beyond emergencies and short-term recover-ies from shocks, the recent Livestock Sector Development Strategy (LSDS, jointly support-ed by the World Bank and the FAO) set out in a comprehensive way the priority sector goals and needs for resilience and development, which re-flected extensive research and consultations at the state level with public and private stake-holders, and which were endorsed by the federal and member state governments and the sector’s key stakeholders in June 2019 at the final vali-dation workshop held in Mogadishu. There are two key goals; the first one is the most closely rele-vant to resilience (Somalia 2019). First, to strengthen the production and marketing systems for live an-imals, via improving (i) environmental stewardship of the country’s rangelands, including their adapta-tion to an increasingly threatening climate change; (ii) health services, including the credibility of health certifications in the quarantine stations at the main four export ports; and (iii) feed and fodder availability. And second, to develop the value addition opportu-nities available in livestock products, via promoting investments in processing and quality improvements, while ensuring food safety. As the related recommen-dations in the LSDS largely overlap with the costed medium- and long-term needs that had already been identified at end-2017 under the DINA (Somalia 2018) and those listed in Table 7 of this section of the current assessment, they are reproduced below for reference:

• Reform sector governance and institutions, including (i) assignment of responsibilities among all levels of governments; (ii) capaci-ty building; (iii) broad participation, including by women, youth and disadvantaged groups, in policy formulation, institutional reforms, project design and implementation; and (iv) effective aid coordination and partnership


with international donors and development agencies;

• Strengthen animal production and market-ing systems, including effective rangeland management, land tenure, and climate change adaptation;

• Improve animal health services (and credible health certifications for exports), nutrition, and welfare;

• Foster enhanced production, processing and marketing of dairy, meat, hides and skins (for exports), poultry and beekeeping products, to promote value added and en-sure food security and safety;

• Facilitate access to modern financial servic-es, including insurance; and

• Human resource development, including with capacity building for the public and private stakeholders and for technical and higher education in veterinary, food scienc-es and animal husbandry sciences.

Related to veterinary services, this FINA propos-es more frequent treatment of animals, given the expected shortened cycles of droughts and floods (each likely to occur once every two to three years). Such medium-and long-term inter-ventions during the next seven years (2021–2027) will require $4 million for control treatment of wa-ter-borne disease in at-risk animals in the riverine and inter-riverine areas and $5.7 million for support-ive treatment of 8 million drought-affected animals. While the FAO no longer conducts and recommend vaccination against PPR, but only the provision of strategic vaccine stocks, there is also a need to sus-tain regular CPP vaccination, at an annual cost of $0.8 million for vaccines and $1.8 million for conducting vaccination campaigns, thus totaling at least $15.6 million. Strengthening the capacity and links with the private sector of community-based animal health workers (CAHWs, with training and kits) and the pub-lic veterinary service for a minimal level of service

delivery and fostering adherence to SPS standards will require another $1.1 million.

Regarding fodder and feed related needs for the medium- and long-terms, the proposed amount of $7.4 million is to (i) build six more feed storage centers in additional rural districts ($0.6 million); (ii) procure, store and distribute (as needed) fodder and feed concentrate (range cubes) in those districts likely to be affected by future extreme climate events ($2 million); (iii) foster commercial fodder produc-tion and storage ($1.8 million); and also (iv) conduct a comprehensive animal feed inventory and balance study ($1 million, via remote-sensing and ground sur-veys, and to be based on reliable district-level animal population figures that can allow demand-side esti-mates). A related critical need for economic analysis and for planning is for a comprehensive country-wide animal population survey (about $3 million), for which the FAO has already obtained a detailed design methodology based on aerial and field surveys, but whose pilot (and of course full implementation) re-main stalled due to lack of government and AMISOM clearances related to the still unsettled security sit-uation in many rural areas of southcentral Somalia.

Regarding improving the entire livestock water-ing system (institutions and infrastructure) in the semi-arid areas of southcentral Somalia, this FINA can only offer a very broad and partial ap-proximation to their overall needs. The related needs entries are largely based for the medium-term on an assumed share (70%) for these regions of the total cost of a recently approved project (World Bank 2019), the “Water for Agro-pastoral Productivity and Resilience” or “Biyoole” Project, and then on assuming a slightly higher amount for the long-term. At a total of $58 million, this item represents, by far, the largest need for strengthening the sector’s resilience to fu-ture extreme climate events.

All other needs listed in Table 7, amounting to about $16 million, reflect either those believed to be still relevant for medium- and long-term re-silience building from the DINA (Somalia 2018) or those gathered by the FINA team in interviews with sector officials, experts and practitioners.


Regional government officials have requested for as-sistance related to restocking and to rehabilitation of municipal slaughterhouses. Though not directly related to the recent floods, they have been includ-ed here due to their relevance for the livelihood of both livestock producers and processors and for food security.

Summary of Assessment MethodologyThe gains and losses’ estimates for the crops sec-tor are based on the available data gathered from the four sources listed below, subject to the assumptions, inferences and limitations in the estimation methodology also mentioned below:

i. FSNAU updated estimates based on tele-phone and field surveys and PET conducted in December 2019 for the Deyr 2019 in-season areas planted, areas harvested and produc-tion and Deyr 2019 off-season areas planted, plus its most current projections of off-season Deyr 2019 areas (to be) harvested and produc-tion for the four staple crops (maize, sorghum, cowpeas and sesame) that it monitors regu-larly in all regions of the country;27

ii. FSNAU estimates (available in many dis-tricts) of the January 2019 prices (taken as Deyr 2018 basline) for the first three staple crops mentioned above and also for sesame oil (supplemented by informed assumptions made by the FINA-team regarding the tech-nical relationship between sesame seed and sesame oil); and FINA-team inferences to ex-tend the partial FSNAU price data set to other adjacent districts with missing prices from FSNAU by producing same commodities;

iii. FSNAU Deyr 2019 estimates of production for a few additional fruits (watermelon) and hor-ticulture products (onions and tomatoes) that are available only for some districts of two re-gions (Hiraan and Gedo), but where they are

of major importance to the local agricultural economy, valued by using the DINA’s esti-mated baseline US$ prices (for 2014) in the absence of FSNAU- or government-collected prices for such crops; and

iv. FINA-team estimates of banana areas planted, yield, production and (January 2019 base-line) prices based on information collected by the FINA-team directly from individual pro-ducers, producers’ associations and traders in four main banana-producing regions: Lower Shabelle (where about 90% of the country’s total production originates; Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba).

The short-term emergency needs for the crops sec-tor were assumed to be equal to the net overall losses observed for four regions, including those for Galgaduud whose losses are believed to be related to non-flood causes such as a fungus infestation and scarcity of labor related to a major recruitment drive in the region by Al-Shabaab. In addition, the locust emergency-related needs for the crops sector re-flect 100 percent of the share indicated for Somalia of the FAO regional appeal for donor support. The medium-term non-water related needs for early re-silience building (2021–2022), in the absence of any updated cost estimates by FAO-Somalia or the gov-ernment, have been based on the DINA, because all of them remains relevant to addressing both fu-ture droughts and floods events, but with substantial intra-regional adjustments discussed and agreed with MOAI for relevance to the current situation. The long-term needs for fuller resilience-building in the outer years (2023–2026) have been assumed to be double the medium-term needs, reflecting the prog-ress assumed to have been made in addressing the medium-term, early resilience-building needs.

Since it is expected that the water needs for agri-culture are dealt with in an holistic way under the separate chapter dealing with flood-risk manage-ment along the rivers and in the interriverine areas

27 FSNAU-monitored and reported data for areas and production of watermelons, onions, tomatoes, and groundnuts in three regions (Gedo, Hiraan, and Bay) are also available, but not their prices, thus making it impossible to estimate their gains and losses in monetary terms and aggregate these across all crops.


Cost (US$)ST Recovery from Floods

Cost (US$) M-T Early

Resilience to Extreme Climate

Events

Cost (US$) L-T Resilience

to Extreme Climate Events Total Needs

R&R Needs 2020 2021–2023 2024–2027 (US$)Veterinary Services 2,000,000 10,667,000 18,267,000 30,934,000vector-born (zoonotic) disease control in riverine districts (to address flood-enhanced or heavy rains risks)

2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 6,000,000

Supportive treatment countrywide (during droughts) — 1,900,000 3,800,000 5,700,000

vaccinations 5,200,000 10,400,000 15,600,000Strengthening community-based animal health service delivery (CAHWs training and kits supply); + links with private sector (=DINA)

567,000 567,000 1,134,000

Strengthening the public veterinary service and SPS — 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,500,000

Feed/Fodder 2,100,000 5,500,000 1,900,000 9,500,000Feed Stores (12) construction/rehabilitation 600,000 600,000 1,200,000Animal feed concentrate (range cubes) – storage & distribution in 10 districts for 15,000 locust-affected pastoral households (contingency)

1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 3,500,000

Animal feed concentrate (range cubes) – storage & distribution in additional districts for future climate-shock affected households (contingency)

2,000,000 2,000,000

Fostering commercial fodder production and storage (=DINA) 900,000 900,000 1,800,000

Animal feed Inventory (survey) & balance (vs demand estimates) 1,000,000 1,000,000

Animal population survey (census) 4,000,000 4,000,000Water: improve and manage access to water among agro-pastoralist communities in dryland areas, incl. rehab of infrastructure

28,000,000 30,000,000 58,000,000

Livestock export quarantine management capacity building (all export ports, but costs shown only for Mogadishu & Kismayo)

1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000

Livestock restocking for poor & very poor households (=DINA) 600,000 600,000

Meat: municipal slaughterhouses rehabilitation in Mogadishu and regional capital (from LSDS) 1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000

Milk: improve, foster and manage commercial storage, distribution, and processing of milk 1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000

Rangeland management (=DINA) 1,500,000 1,500,000 3,000,000MLFR (federal and state) and stakeholders’ capacity building (=DINA) 800,000 800,000 1,600,000

Poultry Production (=DINA) 500,000 750,000 1,250,000Bee keeping (=DINA) 500,000 500,000 1,000,000Genetic research and breeding (=DINA) 1,500,000 1,000,000 2,500,000Total R&R Needs 4,100,000 56,567,000 57,717,000 118,384,000

TABLE 7: DISTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS


of the southcentral regions, the input received from FAOSO, SWALIM, and the MOAI are summarized in this chapter and in the related needs tables, with regionally-disaggregated details available upon request.

On the livestock side, gains and losses could not be quantified, but if there are any losses, they are believed to be minimal. This is based on the eco-nomic indicators reviewed (NDvI changes between November–December 2019 and the same months during the previous year and the prices of two bell weather items like goat and camel milk) and feed-back received from sector experts.28

The proposed needs for the livestock sector have al-so been based on those already identified at the time of the DINA, but substantially revised to reflect exten-sive discussions about current relevant needs with the livestock experts from FAOSO.29

Housing

SummaryThe housing sector has incurred damage of US$ 26.5 million. The overall investment need of the hous-ing sector is estimated at US$33.7 million. Housing damage and recovery needs are examined at three levels: damage to private housing in the 32 flood affected districts; damage to the IDP shelters; and damage to the transitional shelter of the most vul-nerable families affected by the flood.

It is estimated that nearly 20,250 housing units would have been damaged in the flood affected districts, comprising of nearly 4,640 fully damaged housing units and 15,613 partly damaged units. The UNHCR database on IDP indicates that nearly 34,874 families have accessed shelter assistance after the flood and may require rehabilitation of their shelters located in 154 IDP sites. Assuming that nearly 10% of the most vulnerable families may require transitional shelter needs, this need is estimated at 6,314 units.

The housing sector has also incurred significant eco-nomic loss of US$ 96.8 million due to damages to houses and household assets. The direct econom-ic loss due to housing damage and displacement is estimated at US$135 million (Table 10). The housing reconstruction through the housing reconstruction and rehabilitation as well as provision of transitional shelters for IDP families would replace nearly 26% of the total economic loss incurred by the region.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for HousingThe total number of population affected by the flood in the 32 districts located in the 12 regions of the country is estimated at 540,000 with nearly 376,000 of people displaced.30 This suggests that nearly 4.8% of the total regional population and 10.3% of the dis-trict population are affected with nearly 6.8% of the district population displaced. While at the regional level, the overall direct impacts in terms of housing damage and economic loss may not be alarming, some of the districts have experienced significant housing damage. It is observed that nearly 80% of the total households affected by the flood are locat-ed in regions; Hiraan region contains nearly 50% of the total households affected by the flood. At the district level, 100% of the households in Beletweyn and 80% of the households in the Beradale in the Bay region are affected by the flood. Other high-ly impacted districts are Mahaday Weyne in Middle Shaballe region (49% of the district households) and nearly 22% each of the total population living in the Garbahaarey, Baadheere and Doolow districts in the Gedo region are affected by the flood.

The UN reported; “entire reaches of the two rivers have seen high water levels, resulting in flooding in Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South West states. Flash flooding was also reported in Banadir region, Jowhar, Ceel Cade and Jamame, and some locations in South West State. The worst affected area is Beletweyn, where overflow from the Shabelle river has displaced large number of people from their homes.” Flash

28 The MLFR has yet to provide any input to such assessment and to confirm (or dispute) these conclusions.29 The MLFR has yet to provide any input to such proposed needs and their cost estimates.30 OCHA, 2019.


flood has affected built-up and low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and central regions given the forecast. In Beletweyn district, an estimated 45,500 households (273,000 people) have fled their homes.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on Housing SectorBased on the remote sensing analysis and second-ary data-based projection of regional population and housing typologies, it is estimated that the total dam-age to the housing sector is US$ 26.5 million. Nearly 63,376 housing units are affected by the flood in the 32 districts, although, the damage impacts are negligible in the case of districts such as Owdweyne (Togdheer), Berbera (Waqooyi Galbeed), Badhadhe (Lower Juba), Luuq (Gedo), Ceed Barde (Bakool), Diinsoor (Bay), Qoryooley and Marka (Lower Shabeele). Based on the assumed housing density of 1.5 households per hous-ing unit, it is estimated that nearly 63,376 housing

units, comprising of nearly 16,989 permanent units and 46,300 temporary units are impacted by the flood.

In the absence of ground-level assessment of hous-ing damage and inadequate housing damage remote sensing data, it is assumed that due to the flash flood and limited inundation of the areas, nearly 10% of the permanent houses and 40% of the tem-porary houses would have been affected by these disasters. This means that nearly 90% of the perma-nent houses would be livable and 60% of temporary houses may have experienced negligible damag-es. Based on these assumptions, it is estimated that nearly 20,250 housing units would have been dam-aged in the flood-affected districts, comprising nearly 4,640 fully damaged housing units and 15,613 part-ly damaged units. According to the OCHA report, it is assumed that most of the internally displaced per-sons would have returned to their places of origin

Flood Affected Regions

Total Regional

Population 2014

Total Regional

Population 2019

Estimated HHs in

Regions, 2019

Number of HHs

in Flood Affected Districts

% of Regional

HHs Affected

by the Flood

No of IDP HHs

Total Housing Units in

Flood Affected

Areas

Permanent Housing Units (RS Estimate)

Temporary Housing

Units

Bakool 367,226 467,751 70,249 1,119 1.59 81 746 200 546

Banadir 1,650,227 2,101,963 385,971 9,874 2.56 536 6,583 1,765 4,818

Bay 792,182 1,009,035 181,591 11,259 6.20 7,675 7,506 2,012 5,494

Galgaduud 569,434 725,312 101,278 1,257 1.24 182 838 225 613

Gedo 508,405 647,577 125,987 13,127 10.42 5,863 8,751 2,346 6,405

Hiraan 520,685 663,218 109,565 43,008 39.25 42,595 28,672 7,686 20,986

Lower Juba 489,307 623,251 134,640 2,819 2.09 1,085 1,879 504 1,376

Lower Shabelle

1,202,219 1,531,317 207,843 421 0.20 41 280 75 205

Middle Juba

362,921 462,268 97,891 4,470 4.57 573 2,980 799 2,181

Middle Shabelle

516,036 657,297 119,618 6,284 5.25 3,682 5,106 1,369 3,737

Togdheer 721,363 918,830 156,157 17 0.01 2 11 3 8

W Galbeed 1,242,003 1,581,991 261,150 33 0.01 13 22 6 16

Total 8,942,008 11,389,809 1,951,939 93,688 4.80 62,328 63,376 16,989 46,387Note: RS Estimate: Estimated provided by the Remote Sensing team.

TABLE 8: POPULATION AND FLOOD AFFECTED HOUSING, 2014 AND 2019


TABL

E 9:

ASS

ESSM

ENT

SUM

MA

RY O

F H

OU

SIN

G S

ITES

Ass

essm

ent

Sum

mar

y

Floo

d A

ffect

ed R

egio

ns

Bena

dir

Gal

gadu

udH

iraan

M

Shab

elle

L

Shab

ella

Bay

Bako

olG

edo

M

Juba

L

Juba

Togd

heer

W

Gal

beed

Tota

l Re

gion

s

Phys

ical

Targ

ets

Num

ber o

f H

ousin

g U

nits

Aff

ecte

d by

the

Floo

d

2104

267

9163

1632

9023

9823

927

9795

260

14

720

254

Num

ber o

f Ful

ly

Dam

aged

Uni

ts48

261

2099

374

2154

955

641

218

138

12

4641

Num

ber o

f Par

tly

Dam

aged

Uni

ts16

2220

670

6412

5869

1849

184

2156

734

463

35

1561

3

Num

ber o

f ID

Ps

in th

e Pr

e flo

od

IDP

sites

Pro

vide

d Sh

eter

Ass

istan

ce

by U

N, 2

019

821

073

2378

1431

523

742

1979

729

263

040

3607

8

Num

ber o

f Tr

ansit

iona

l Sh

elte

rs fo

r New

ID

Ps

5418

4259

451

476

78

586

109

570

163

14

Fina

ncia

l/ Re

plac

emen

t Nee

ds (U

S$)

Tota

l Hou

sing

Repl

acem

ent C

ost

2,585

,521

329,1

3911

,261,6

302,0

05,53

411

0,140

2,948

,145

292,9

083,4

37,34

21,1

70,55

073

8,038

4,453

8,642

24,89

2,042

Tran

sitio

nal

Shel

ter C

ost

13,40

84,5

391,0

64,87

611

2,661

1,024

191,8

842,0

2014

6,571

27,11

914

,341

4732

21,5

78,81

1

Tota

l Hou

sing

As

sista

nce

2,598

,930

333,6

7812

,326,5

062,1

18,19

511

1,164

3,140

,029

294,9

283,5

83,91

31,1

97,66

875

2,379

4,500

8,964

26,47

0,853


after the disaster. In the absence of any vulnerabil-ity assessments of the IDPs and IDP return analysis, it is assumed that nearly 10% of the most vulnera-ble families may require transitional shelter supports. The total transitional shelter need is estimated at 6,314 units, mostly in the highly flood impacted dis-tricts (Table 2).

Assessment of IDP sites affected in Beletweyn us-ing remote sensing technique suggests that nearly 37.5% of the shelters are damaged during the flood. It is also observed from the UNHCR displacement database that nearly 88% of the total assistance provided in December 2019 was for flood affect-ed displaced people. It is also observed that nearly 9% of the total assistance provided for IDPs affected by the flood was for shelter supports. It is estimat-ed that nearly 154 IDP sites in the 11 districts are affected by the flood. It is observed that near-ly 36,874 persons were provided shelter assistance. Since shelter assistance is provided at the household level, it is assumed that nearly 36,874 IDP shelters were affected by the flood and need shelter replacements.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Housing SectorRecovery NeedThe housing recovery investment need is estimated at US$ 26.5 million, which constitutes nearly US$25 million for reconstruction and rehabilitation of dam-aged private houses and nearly US$1.6 million for the provision of transitional shelters for IDPs (Table 11). District wise and housing component level allocation of the housing recovery investment needs is detailed in the Table 13.

The total housing recovery program need is estimat-ed at US$ 33.7 million. This estimate is comprised of the housing replacement costs for housing assis-tance and project implementation cost. The project implementation cost is comprised of (a) housing damage assessments, (b) project management cost and third-party beneficiary and technical auditing, (c) physical and financial contingencies for inflation and other project cost overruns.

Recovery StrategyThe housing recovery strategy is based on dual stra-tegic approaches comprised of homeowner-driven reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged private houses as well as NGO/ Partner Organization-driven construction of transitional shelters. The regional diversity in terms of social and economic vulnerabil-ity of affected families, capacity of government and non-governmental organizations, institutional con-straints to attract private sectors in the reconstruction process and varied social customs and preference for type of housing, etc, demand multi-layer recov-ery responses. Since nearly 65% of the total housing recovery investment needs is emerging from four districts—Belet Wayne (43%), Jowhar (5.7%), Berdale (7.7%) and Bhaadeere (8.6%)—the institutional ca-pacity of state government and local government agencies should be assessed and accordingly phase out the investment plan. Considering the capacity related institutional issues and accessibility concerns, it is desirable to sequence and phase the implemen-tation plan temporally and spatially.

Homeowner Driven Housing Strategy: Experiences from many flood and cyclone driven housing

TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF THE HOUSING SECTOR DAMAGE

AND ECONOMIC LOSS

Estimated Housing Damage and Economic Loss

Total (32 Districts)

Number of Housing Units Affected by the Flood

20,254

Number of Fully Damaged Units 4,641

Number of Partly Damaged Units 15,613

Number of IDP Shelters Damaged During the Food

36,078

Number of Transitional Shelter (IDPS)

6,314

Economic Impacts (US$)

Economic Loss Due to Housing Damage

96,830,235

Replacement Cost (Private Housing and Transitional Shelter)

35,490,353

Displacement Cost for Rental and Transport

3,031,318

Total Economic Impacts 135,351,996


reconstruction programs indicates that, to the extent possible, the most feasible and sustainable option is in-situ reconstruction managed by affected house-holds assisted by a combination of cash grants and access to affordable loans. The homeowner driven housing recovery strategy would be successful to internalize the cultural preferences and mobilize addi-tional financial supports through family participation, participation of private and donor communities and opportunities to leverage co-financing strate-gies. International experience also suggests that a homeowner driven program would also adequate-ly address “Build Back Better” principles and practices with long term economic benefits.

Transitional Shelter Strategy: The UNFPA housing and household asset survey indicates that 53% of the households do not own lands. It is also observed that while nearly 70% of the rural households’ own lands, 34% of urban households and only 7.6% of the households living in IDP camps own lands. This land ownership profile suggests that while a homeown-er driven housing strategy may be a viable option among rural households affected by the flood, it may be challenging among urban and IDP households.

These observations suggest that the transitional shel-ter program may have to be broadened to meet the housing needs of the displaced population as well as those rural and urban households who do not own lands to build houses.

Housing Recovery Investment Sequencing and Phasing Plan

Summary of Assessment MethodologyScope and Definition: The housing damage assess-ment has used a multi-layer approach to validate the baseline housing stock of the flood affected regions for the year 2014 and the level of housing damage dur-ing the 2019 flood. Housing damage assessments are done primarily for 12 regions and 32 districts within these regions. Based on the remote sensing data, it is observed that the flood has affected nearly half of the country. Housing damage data are collected for per-manent and temporary houses based on the building materials used for construction. Since no authentic in-formation is available on the informal and traditional houses, including the nomadic houses, for the pur-pose of housing sector assessment, the rural housing segment includes both houses in the rural settlements as well as informal houses of the nomadic population.

Since flash flood and river surge and speedy retreat of the flood affects the foundation and wall of houses, permanent houses are defined as those houses built with foundations and walls using cement blocks and bricks. Temporary houses use a variety of local and adobe materials such as mud, earth, wood, bam-boo, thatched roof, etc. The scope of the assessment is limited to rehabilitating and reconstructing dam-aged houses, including restoration of damaged IDP shelters and dedicated financing strategy for pro-viding transitional shelters to the vulnerable flood affected IDP households who may not return within the immediate and short term.

Methodology: In the absence of national recent housing census data, housing estimation across vari-ous administrative regions and housing typologies is a serious challenge. The UNFPA sample-based stud-ies and reports from CCCM and UNHCR database on

TABLE 11: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING SECTOR NEEDS

Financial/ Replacement Needs (US$) All Districts

Total Housing Replacement Cost 24,892,042

Transitional Shelter Cost, 1,578,811

Total Housing Assistance 26,470,853

Housing Recovery Investment Need (US$)

Total Housing Assistance Cost (including transitional Shelter)

26,470,853

Damage Assessment/Beneficiary Identification (1%)

264,709

Project Management Cost + Third Party Auditing (10%)

2,647,085

Physical Contingency (5% of Project Cost)

1,336,778

Financial Contingency–Cost Overrun (10% of Project Cost)

2,938,265

Total Housing Investment Cost (US$) 33,657,690


Implementation Plan(in % completion)

Housing NeedsPresent StateDec 2019

Recovery Indicators

Immediate and Short Term (1–2 Years)

Medium Term (2 to 3 Years)

Implementing Agency

Rehabilitation (Repair) and Reconstruction of Damaged Private Houses

20254 housing units damaged during the flood and subsequent cyclone

4641 fully damaged houses and 15613 partly damaged housing units to restored in the flood affected Districts as part of the housing recovery strategy

25% of the partly damaged houses (3900) and 5% of fully damaged houses (232) to be restoredUS$4.4 million for Private Housing

100% of the Fully and Partly Damaged units to be restored.US$20.5 Million for Private Housing

Homeowners with the financial grant assistance and technical supports from the Government and Partner Organizations

Replacement and Repair of IDP shelters damaged during the flood

36078 IDPs sought shelter assistance from UN agencies. These shelters are presumed to be damaged and require replacement

Restoration of 36078 individual shelters located in 154 IDP sites in the flood affected regions

100% of the restoration of the Shelters damaged during the floodUS$9 Million for IDP shelter replacement

UNHCR and other UN agencies and NGOs supporting the Shelter programs

Transitional Shelter Support Program

6314 transitional shelters to be provided to the most vulnerable IDP families who could not return to their place origin

100% transitional shelters to be provided to the most vulnerable IDP families

100% of the transitional shelters to be providedUS$1.6 million for IDP shelters

Development Partners/ NGOs and INGOs/ Private Sector and Community Partnerships

Establishing Mechanism to Implement the Housing Reconstruction Strategy

Design and implement homeowner driven housing recovery strategyImplement IDP Transitional Shelter Program

Gazette notification of guidelines, financial inclusion strategy, Beneficiaries to share at least 10% of the cost in cash or in kind

Damage Assessments, Beneficiary validation and establishing grievance redressal and community participation mechanisms

Establish institutional coordination to ensure access to building materials and training workers

Government of Somalia, State Governments and Partner Organizations

Third party auditing and grievance redressal mechanisms

Establish Region/ District level beneficiary identification and validation processes

Establish village rehabilitation committees to monitor housing assistance delivery mechanism

Establish Beneficiary Auditing and Technical Auditing Teams

Quarterly Auditing/ Supporting up Uncompleted Housing Units to Complete

Government of Somalia, State Governments and Partner Organization

TABLE 12: HOUSING SECTOR RECOVERY INDICATORS


Restoration of Fully and Partly Damaged Private Houses- Intervention 1

States Regions DistrictsTransitional Phase

(1–2 Years)

Medium Term Recovery

(2–3 Years) Total Needs

Banadir Banadir Banadir 453,656 2131866 2585521

Galmudug Galgaduud Dhusamaareeb 57,751 271388 329139

Hirshabelle Hiraan Beletweyn 1,822,567 8564794 10387361

Jalalaqsi 121,504 570986 692491

Bulo Burto 31,895 149884 181779

Middle Shabelle Jowhar 255,244 1199468 1454711

Mahaday Weyne 63,173 296868 360041

Balcad 33,475 157307 190782

South West Lower Shabelle Kurtunwaarey 2,494 11718 14212

Sablaale 8,104 38084 46188

Marka 1,247 5859 7106

Afgooye 6,234 29295 35529

Qoryooley 1,247 5859 7106

Bay Qansax Dheere 20,658 97079 117737

Berdale 330,531 1553267 1883799

Diinsoor 826 3883 4709

Baidoa 165266 776634 941899

Bakool Ceel Barde 1380 6484 7863

xudur 50014 235031 285045

Jubaland Gedo Garbahaarey 145698 684677 830374

Baardheere 375417 1764198 2139614

Doolow 80446 378042 458489

Luuq 1555 7309 8864

Middle Juba Bu’aale 62297 292751 355048

Saakow 79818 375088 454906

Jilib 63270 297326 360596

Lower Juba Kismayo 66485 312432 378916

Jamaame 49615 233158 282773

Badhaadhe 496 2332 2828

Afmadow 12900 60621 73521

Somaliland Togdheer Owdweyne 781 3672 4453

Woqooyi Galbeed

Berbera 1516 7126 8642

Sub Total 4,367,559 20,524,483 24,892,042

TABLE 13: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS BY DISTRICTS

(continued on next page)


Transitional Shelter Supports to Flood Affected Internally Displaced Population – Intervention 2

States Regions Districts Transitional PhaseMedium

Term Recovery Total Needs

Banadir Banadir Banadir 13408 13408

Galmudug Galgaduud Dhusamaareeb 4539 4539

Hirshabelle Hiraan Beletweyn 991736 991736

Jalalaqsi 62397 62397

Bulo Burto 10744 10744

Middle Shabelle Jowhar 84294 84294

Mahaday Weyne 20625 20625

Balcad 7741 7741

South West Lower Shabelle Kurtunwaarey 0 0

Sablaale 366 366

Marka 88 88

Afgooye 509 509

Qoryooley 61 61

Bay Qansax Dheere 112 112

Berdale 157374 157374

Diinsoor 67 67

Baidoa 34330 34330

Bakool Ceel Barde 225 225

xudur 1794 1794

Jubaland Gedo Garbahaarey 10214 10214

Baardheere 136187 136187

Doolow 0 0

Luuq 170 170

Middle Juba Bu’aale 4343 4343

Saakow 13771 13771

Jilib 9004 9004

Lower Juba Kismayo 5130 5130

Jamaame 7019 7019

Badhaadhe 32 32

Afmadow 2160 2160

Somaliland Togdheer Owdweyne 47 47

Woqooyi Galbeed

Berbera 322 322

Sub Total 1,578,811 1578811

Grand Total 5,946,370 20,524,483 26,470,853

TABLE 13: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS BY DISTRICTS (continued)


internally displaced population, housing and hous-ing assets, etc., are used for estimating the regional housing distribution and IDP sites damaged dur-ing the flood using ratio methods. In the absence of credible housing density parameters, the housing needs are estimated using a combination of hous-ing stock analysis and remote sensing validation process.31 The housing damage estimation process has used the following steps. First, the housing stock for the year 2019 is estimated based on triangula-tion of the national population growth pattern, and household size, proportion of rural and urban hous-ing, distribution of housing stock across permanent and temporary categories, housing density esti-mates. Second, housing damage data are collected by the assessment team using multiple sources such as CCCM and OCHA reports and remote sensing da-ta points. Third, estimates so arrived are revalidated based on the remote sensing and social media ana-lytics, wherever reliable data are available.

Economic impacts of housing damage and estima-tion of investment needs to restore damaged hous-es are done based on the assumed average value of permanent and temporary houses, average value of household assets lost/damaged, average cost of con-struction of a ‘core house’,32 approximate cost of pro-viding transitional shelters, and average housing rent paid by the IDPs to live in private houses. The replace-ment cost of fully and partly damaged houses is esti-mated based on the housing grant assistance package of US$2000 for fully damaged houses and US$1000 for partly damaged houses. These financial assistances are expected to be supplemented by own labour by the homeowners and use of building materials salvaged.

Key Assumptions: Some of the key assumptions are (a) housing density of 1.5 households, 10% of the permanent houses and 40% of the temporary hous-es are assumed to be damaged by the flood, 10% of the internally displaced vulnerable families require

transitional shelter supports, 20% of the IDPs may be living in rented private housing incurring an aver-age monthly rent and transportation cost of US$20, the average financial assistance for providing tran-sitional shelters is about US$250, the average value of core houses in the rural and urban areas is about US$4000 and US$8000, respectively, and the aver-age financial assistance for fully damaged and partly damaged houses is about US$2000 and US$1000, re-spectively. It is also assumed that all households that sought shelter supports after the flood would require shelter supports under the housing recovery program.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

SummaryIn 2016, access to improved water supply in Somalia was estimated at 32%, while populations with im-proved sanitation were estimated at a staggering 24%, one of the lowest percentages in the world. Recurring droughts, now a common natural feature of Somalia, combined with internal displacement and a deteriorated network of water points to com-pound poor access, forcing supply needs often to be met through emergency operations, such as wa-ter trucking. Lack of access to clean and safe water has exacerbated incidences of water-borne diseas-es especially cholera which is endemic in Somalia.33

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for WASH SectorIn 2017 Somalia’s population still had one of the low-est reported rates of access to improved drinking water and sanitation facilities in the world. There are no nationally representative surveys in the past de-cade but based on two recent surveys that covered secure parts of the country an estimated 59 per-cent of Somalis have access to an improved source of drinking water within 30 minutes and 27 per-cent have access to an improved sanitation facility.34

31 LandScan data base collected from the OrkRidge National Laboratory using the ORNL technology.32 Core House is a variable concept. For the purpose of the assessment, a core house is defined as one with 35m2 foundation, one lockable room, pro-visions for another bedroom, porch, one kitchen and one independent toilet. Families are free increase the floor areas and add another bedroom with own resources as and when finances are mobilized.33 African Development Bank, 2016.34 2017, WHO-UNICEF JMP data.


Access to improved sanitation facilities in urban ar-eas has fallen by half over the past 15 years. Access to improved sanitation in rural areas has stagnated at a very low level currently estimated to be under 10 percent with over 56 percent of households re-sorting to open defecation.35

During the base line period of 2013–2015, SWALIM estimated that there were around 3,733 water points, 61% (2,261 sources) of which were report-ed to be perennial, under normal conditions. Higher proportions of berkads36 and dams supply water for only part of the year compared to other sources.37 An assessment done by SWALIM on strategic bore-holes between February and April 2017 on selected regions in the south and central parts of the country identified that only 79% of the perennial/strategic boreholes were functional.

Perennial water supply from surface flow in Somalia is limited to the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. The two riv-ers flow from Ethiopia into southern Somalia. During extreme dry periods the flow in both rivers is not able to adequately support domestic and agricultur-al water needs for the riverine communities. In March 2016 and February to mid-March 2017, the Shabelle River dried out completely, which is unprecedented in over 30 years. In other parts of the country rain-water harvesting through the provision of dug outs (Wars38), Berkads38 and Mugciids40 to impound sur-face runoff during the two rainy seasons—GU (April to June) and Deyr (October to December)—is a com-mon feature of the water supply infrastructure in rural communities.

Water resource and water supply development over the past 20 years has been dominated by non-state humanitarian actors. Over the past de-cade humanitarian aid flows to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WaSH) in Somalia have averaged over

US$ 20 million a year (OECD, 2016). Communities and households have also invested in water sup-ply particularly berkads for harvesting and storing rainwater for people and livestock and hand-dug wells for small scale irrigation. Currently, people in Somalia have very low levels of access to safe wa-ter and inadequate permanent sources for livestock; government has very limited capacity to manage these sources.

In 2016–2017, Somalia experienced a protracted drought again. Nearly 926,00041 people have been displaced due to drought compounded by armed conflict since November 2016. Some 388,000 chil-dren under five years of age are in acute need of critical nutrition support. Half of Somalia’s population has been impacted, and as many as 3.2 million peo-ple still require emergency food assistance. Insecurity and two consecutive years of severe drought has re-sulted in the UN issuing a famine warning (February 2017), with over half the population facing acute food insecurity.

35 UNICEF/WHO Joint Monitoring Program 2017 www.wssinfo.org.36 3 CIA, 2013, World Factbook on Somalia.37 Most berkads, dams and dug wells which supply water for a limited period within the year have not been mapped.38 Wars are dams or impoundments up to 3 m depth built in clayey soils that retain surface run off from rain with capacity of 1,500 to 50,000 cu m. Lining with plastic reduces seepage.39 Berkads have capacities of 10 to 100 cu m. Covering with shrubs or iron sheets reduces evaporation thereby extending the period of use.40 6 Mugciids are underground storage wells with average depth of 15 m that are used to supplement supply when all other sources are depleted.41 Somalia Displacement dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), cumulative Nov. 2016. – Sept. 2017.


In addition to responsibility for water supply, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources has responsi-bility for delivery of sanitation services in both urban and rural areas. The responsibility for sanitation servic-es is jointly shared with local government authorities and the Ministry of Health. Generally, Somalia is yet to put in place a vibrant institutional framework for the delivery and oversight of sector related activi-ties. Fragmentation of institutional responsibilities and lack of adequate legislation have resulted in an uncoordinated development of the sector. The few established institutions are not yet fully staffed and are weak and require capacity enhancement—at the national, regional and district level. The stakeholder analysis shows that a range of actors play different roles in the water supply and sanitation sector in Somalia, with very little or no government oversight.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on WASH SectorBy the second week of December 2019, rains across Somalia as well as adjacent eastern Ethiopian high-lands have started to subside in intensity. However, cyclone Pawan made landfall in early December 2019, causing damage to fishing boats, road infra-structure, homes and livestock in coastal parts of Bari, Nugaal and Sanaag regions. In areas that re-ceived excessive rainfall in October and November, extreme river floods and flash floods led to popula-tion displacement, crop damage, and disruptions to road networks in some parts of Somalia. Most of the flood-affected areas are in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Gedo and Bay regions. The floods have displaced nearly 400,000–500,000 peo-ple, mainly in Beledweyne of Hiiraan, Berdaale of Bay region, Baardhere of Gedo, Jammame of Lower Juba and other parts of Somalia, while swathes of agricul-tural areas and standing crops in these areas were flooded.

After reaching bank full or high flood risk in October, the Shabelle and Juba river levels started to de-cline between late November and early December. However, river levels remained at moderate to high flood-risk levels in Beletweyn (Hiiraan) and Jowhar (Middle Shabelle). As a result, the areas that have al-ready been adversely affected by floods in October

and November face further threats in the event of continued heavy rainfall during the rest of the month in December. Despite the negative impacts of excessive rainfall and flooding, the Deyr rains re-plenished pasture and water and improved livestock body conditions and milk production and opened up livestock migration possibilities across the coun-try, except in the eastern parts of the Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone of Lasqoray/Badhan and Erigavo districts in the Sanaag region where Deyr rains were mostly below average. Here, dry pas-ture from the 2019 Gu season is still available in the Lasqoray/Badhan and Erigavo districts of Sanaag, and Iskushuban of the Bari region.

However, there is water scarcity, which is forcing pas-toralists to migrate with their livestock to eastern parts of the Bari Region or towards the Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of the Nugaal, Sool, and Mudug re-gions. Source: SWALIM FSNAU.

According to Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN) data from UNHCR, over half a million people were displaced between July and November 2019 across Somalia due to floods (71%), conflict/in-security (15%) and drought-related (13%) causes.

In the crop-growing areas of the agropastoral liveli-hood zones in northwest Somalia (Woqooyi Galbeed, Awdal and Togdheer regions), below-average March to May rainfall initially compromised crop perfor-mance for the 2019 Gu/Karan (April-September) season. Based on assessments conducted in July 2019, FSNAU/FEWS NET, in collaboration with the Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture Development, had estimated that 2019 Gu-Karan cereal produc-tion was 23000 tons, with the harvest expected in November. However, intensified Karan rains in August and September significantly improved Gu/Karan harvest prospects in the region, despite some damage to maturing crops from excessive rainfall. As a result, FSNAU has revised its estimates and expects 2019 Gu/Karan cereal harvests in northwest Somalia could reach up to 30000 tons and will be harvested in December 2019.


In urban Beletweyn, where floods have disrupted live-lihoods and caused large population displacement, significant humanitarian assistance is currently pre-venting targeted households to meet minimally ad-equate food consumption requirements. Therefore, urban Beletweyn is currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) when considering the positive impact of hu-manitarian assistance. Food security outcomes are ex-pected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between December 2019 and June 2020 as they will be facing food consumption gaps that they will not be able to reduce without continued humanitarian assistance.

Most of the impact on the water sector is largely damage to existing water sources around the river-ine areas, such as boreholes, shallow wells, springs and water pans. These damages lead to the com-plete abandoning of the water site, contamination of the water points, siltation of ponds and springs and other damages, leaving communities in mud and stagnant water. In most cases, the losses reported are less compared to the damages. Table 14 summarizes the damages and losses by location.

Impact to the Sector (Economic and Social impact)With damages to the extent mentioned above, it is inconceivable that the floods would not have a

substantial impact on the sector. There are the usu-al impacts on people’s health, lost productivity, increased cost to get clean water and others. But, because of limited information, and lack of time, it will be difficult to make an estimate on the eco-nomic and social impact of the recent floods on the sector. However, the damages and losses due to the immediate effect of the floods were calculated as follows.

Summary of DamagesDamages were calculated based on the type of schemes that were damaged based on the 2017-unit cost rate for the different schemes. To bring the dam-age estimate to a more realistic 2019 estimate, an inflation rate of 3.22% for the year 2018 and 4% for the year 2019 were considered. Generally, total damag-es of about US$8.8 Million were estimated due to the floods on the water supply and sanitation facilities.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for WASH SectorRecovery Needs and StrategyRecovery interventions include the repair/recon-struction of water reservoirs (e.g. storage tanks, small dams), desilting of dams, rehabilitation and recon-struction of water distribution systems (e.g. pipes), provision of emergency water supply to affected

ID Location Damage Loss

1Berdale 50 shallow wells damaged and flooded All water sources are affected

badly, and there are reported losses

2Qnasahdhere Water pans and boreholes has been

damaged by floods causing contaminationNo loss reported

3Beledwayne 75% of water sources in the town had been

damaged by the floodsMost boreholes in the flooded area completely abandoned

4 Bardheere Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

5 Jowhar Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

6 Bulubarde Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

7 Mahdaweyne (Mahadaay Weyn) Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

8 Balcad Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

9 Jalalaqsi Floods damaged riverine shallow wells No loss reported

TABLE 14: WASH SECTOR INDICATORS FOR DAMAGES AND LOSSES


communities, water analysis and treatment, waste disposal and waste management, rehabilitation of sanitation facilities (e.g. latrines), conducting of water and sanitation awareness campaigns, con-ducting of flood-related water and sanitation diseases awareness campaigns (AWD & Cholera, etc.), construction and rehabilitation of boreholes and wells, improvement of human and technical capacity for DRM—flood response and recovery, re-location of water and sanitation facilities to safer places in flood-prone areas (e.g. latrines, water tanks), construction of flood-prevention measures, estab-lishment of early warning systems for WASH sector (e.g. disease outbreaks, water contamination), and development of disaster preparedness plans for the WASH sector e.g. (water contamination prevention, flood protection).

Summary of Assessment MethodologyThe sectoral assessment of early recovery needs was based on several assumptions which include: (i) each district required 3 main storage tanks; (ii) desilting 1 dam per district; (iii) all the 29 districts needed re-habilitation of water distribution systems; (iv) due to water contamination, all 3 states provided with costs for water analysis and treatment; (v) provision of 50 latrines per district; (vi) construction of 2 bore-holes and 1 well per district; among others.

EducationSummarySchool enrollment rates in Somalia are among the lowest in the world. Data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) suggest that the number of out-of-school children and youth (aged 6–18 years) is 3 million, most of whom are located in states in the less wealthy and secure southern and central part of the country.42 At the primary level, about 60 percent of primary school–aged children are out of school.43 At the secondary level, the number of out-of-school children is even greater. In the south and central parts of the country, about 92 percent of children and adolescents within the official age range for sec-ondary school are not in secondary school.

The flooding in Central and Southern Somalia in October 2019, specifically the regions of Hiraan and Bay, has caused substantial damage to an already weak education system in Somalia, putting educa-tion outcomes of children of the region at greater risk. The flooding has caused disruption of educa-tion in the affected areas while rendering displaced students both vulnerable to lagging behind in their studies and being continually excluded from educa-tion. Currently, it is estimated that 81 (IPSOS) to 104 (UNICEF) schools have been destroyed, the educa-tion of between 27,500 to 33,701 children has been directly discontinued with close to 270,000 residents displaced in the aftermath of the flooding.

TABLE 15: WASH SECTOR DAMAGES BY AFFECTED AREAS

AND WATER SCHEMES

State BoreholeShallow

WellWater pans

Spring/Catchment

Southwest State

15 63 53 0

Hirshabelle 45 193 0 16

Jubbaland 4 16 5 2

Total 64 272 58 18

Type of schemes Number

Unit cost 2019

Total Damage (USD)

Boreholes 64 118,083.68 7,403,846.74

Shallow wells

272 5,367.44 1,367,355.34

Water Pans 58 7,514.42 124,363.58

Total 8,895,565.66

TABLE 16: DISTRIBUTION OF WASH SECTOR DAMAGES

42 Somalia Education Cluster Annual Report 2016 (January 2017), Relief Web, https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-education-cluster-annual-report-2016-january-2017.43 ESSP, p. 67.

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-education-cluster-annual-report-2016-january-2017



For recovery to be fully effective regarding restora-tion of education activities, USD 13.3 million to USD 15.7 million will be needed to assist with rebuilding of damaged schools and provide the school-aged pop-ulation the needed resources to resume their studies.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Education Sector

Somalia’s prolonged civil conflict and instability, ensu-ing with the collapse of the last central government in

TABLE 18: DISTRIBUTION OF WASH SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS

Short-term (up to 6 months)

Medium-term (6–12 months) Total (USD)

Recovery Interventions Intervention

Repair/reconstruction of water reservoirs (storage tanks, small dams)

135,720 316,680.0 452,400

Desilting of dams 1,809,600 1,809,600.0 3,619,200

Rehabilitation and reconstruction of water distribution systems (e.g. pipes)

1,085,760 2,533,440.0 3,619,200

Provision of emergency water supply to affected communities

1,248,000 312,000.0 1,560,000

Water analysis and treatment 499,200 124,800.0 624,000

Waste disposal and waste management 1,809,600 1,809,600.0 3,619,200

Rehabilitation of sanitation facilities (e.g. latrines) 385,120 96,280.0 481,400

Conduct water and sanitation awareness campaigns 49,920 12,480.0 62,400

Conduct flood related water and sanitation diseases awareness (AWD & Cholera, etc.)

655,200 280,800.0 936,000

Construction and rehabilitation of boreholes and wells 4,855,760 2,081,040.0 6,936,800

Improve human and technical capacity for DRM, flood response and recovery for WASH sector

218,400 93,600.0 312,000

Relocation of water and sanitation facilities to safer places in flood prone areas (e.g. latrines, water tanks)

2,171,520 241,280.0 2,412,800

Establish early warning systems for WASH sector (e.g. disease outbreaks, water contamination)

49,920 12,480.0 62,400

Develop disaster preparedness plans for the WASH sector (e.g. water contamination prevention, flood protection, etc.)

83,200 20,800.0 104,000

Total Early Recovery Needs 15,056,920 9,744,880 24,801,800

Water sourceVolume of

water per hourHours pumped

(or not pumped)Effective change in

cost US$ per m3

Additional cost over 120 days

(USD)

M3 pumped/sold from Boreholes (BHs)

6,475 12 2 18,646,560

M3 of free water (from dug wells and springs) replaced by BH water

849 3 6 1,834,056

Total losses 20,480,616

TABLE 17: WASH SECTOR LOSSES


140

120

100

80

60

40

20

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Num

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ools

Har

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a

Bari

Low

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o

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ug

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120114

69

5650

4539 36

28 28 27 27 27 25 23 2011

5 4

FIGURE 14: TOTAL NUMBER OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS BY REGION

Source: Somalia FINA database.

1991, has had a lasting effect on both the human de-velopment outcomes of its people, and the education sector. As a result of decades of violence, a generation of Somali children have lost the opportunity to learn.

Somalia has one of the world’s lowest education en-rollment rates. Somalia’s primary gross enrollment rate (GER) stands at 32%, this statistic being dramati-cally lower than the sub-Saharan Africa, low income countries’ and fragile-and-conflict-affected situations average (i.e. 98%, 103% & 99%, respectively). This figure is even lower in the Central-South region of Somalia at 22.1%. Moreover, the situation continues to be more dire for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and rural communities, with enrollment rates of only 16.8% and 3.1% respectively.44 Girls face critical bar-riers to achieving equity in education due to social pressures for early marriage, expectations that girls support households and rearing of smaller siblings and greater ‘social value’ in boys accessing education

over girls. Risks of gender-based violence in and around schools also create further barriers to girls for accessing education services. The Gender Parity Index (GPI) at the primary school level in Banadir and the four FMS, Puntland and Somaliland range from .72 to .79 at the primary level and even lower at the secondary level, ranging from .53 to .66.

The education sector is not only reeling from the ef-fects of conflict and frequent disaster, it is severely curtailed by a lack of infrastructure. More than 75% of all public schools that existed before the breakout of conflict have been destroyed and/or closed. Currently, the total number of public schools is esti-mated to be 754 across the country.45 Of the schools that remain, most are not of a high-quality construc-tion—for example, in the south and central part of the country, the majority of schools, or 55.9 percent across all types of infrastructure, are regarded as be-ing in ‘poor’ condition, 40.7 percent in ‘fair’ condition,

44 UNICEF Somalia – Education, July 2017.45 FINA Data.


and only 3.4 percent in ‘good’ condition. In order to ac-commodate more students many schools operate on a double-shift system. The destruction of schools also gave rise to the large number of private schools that have cropped up to meet the demand for education. Given the complex and uncertain political context, as well as chronic instability stifling state capacity, state interventions in Somalia’s education sector have been limited and fraught with implementation issues.46

The demographics of Somalia’s population is char-acterized by a predominant proportion of youths. Around 45 percent of Somalia is under the age of 15.47 This is observed in both male and female seg-ments of the population.

Although the population of Somalia is almost evenly split between men and women (i.e. 50.7 and 49.3 per-cent, respectively), the number of girls in schools in

Central-South Somalia is, on average, half of their male peers. The average composition of schools is 63 percent boys and 37 percent girls (Table 19).

Post-Flood Context and Impact on Education SectorWidespread flooding hit the regions of Hiraan and Bay in the end of October 2019, after 4 consecutive intense rainy seasons.48 Beled Weyne district was one of the most affected areas of Hiraan, with more than 270,000 residents being displaced. As a consequence, an emergency situation has emerged with education services being disrupted for 27,500 students with clo-sure of schools across the impacted regions.49 IPSOS data estimates suggest that 81 schools were de-stroyed as a result of the flooding while data from UNICEF places it higher at 104 schools in this region.50

The current situation indicates continued hardship: 33,701 children enrolled in 104 schools are impacted by flooding while 344,500 children have been affect-ed by these extreme climatic events.51

Impact to the Sector (Economic and Social Impact)Though Belet Weyn took the brunt of the damage, it wasn’t the only district that experienced loss of property and damage. Assuming each school has 8 classrooms, schools in 14 districts have sustained damages as a result of the flooding, ranging from US$ 187,153 to approximately US$ 3.6 million worth of damage. In aggregate, damages are estimated at US$25.9 million, assuming irrecoverable damage.

Losses within the education sector were also estimated as damages to the school learning materials, furniture and additional costs required for replacing these plus costs of temporary learning facilities. The total losses recorded for the sector are estimated at US$ 3.1million. Therefore, the total economic effects to the educa-tion sector are estimated at around US$ 29 million.

46 Ibid.47 Somalia FINA Database.48 From Drought to Floods in Somalia, UN News. Retrieved from: https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1011741.49 UNICEF Somalia Humanitarian Situation Report, October 2019.50 FINA Dataset.51 Flash Appeal Floods in Somalia, UNICEF 2019.

TABLE 19: NUMBER AND PROPORTION OF STUDENTS (BY GENDER & REGION)

RegionTotal Boys

Total Girls

Boys (%)

Girls (%)

Bakool 4,034 2,095 66 34

Banadir

Bay 5,510 2,002 73 27

Galgaduud 2,942 2,648 53 47

Gedo 3,259 2,434 57 43

Hiraan 6,512 3,673 64 36

Lower Juba 5,711 3,326 63 37

Lower Shabelle

7,551 4,378 63 37

Middle Juba

3,471 1,754 66 34

Middle Shabelle

2,074 1,470 59 41

Total 41,064 23,780 63 37

https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1011741


Given the already low education participation rates in Somalia, the floods have effectively undermined slow but progressive steps towards ensuring greater ac-cess to education for Somalia’s population. According to UNICEF, there will now be an urgent need to mobi-lize resources towards helping students catch up on lost time, especially Grade 8 students who are to par-ticipate in end of cycle exams in May 2020.52

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Education Sector

The Federal Ministry of Education, Culture and Higher Education (MoECHE) is assisting the Federal Member States (FMS) undertake supervision of schools in their jurisdictions, financed by the World Bank. The supervision reports from Banadir have already been

compiled. The data shows extreme inadequacy of fa-cilities. The remaining FMS are expected to complete this exercise in the next few months. MoECHE is al-so working with the FMS to prescribe a minimum facilities package for schools to ensure a condu-cive learning environment. It will be important that schools are rebuilt in line with these minimum qual-ity standards to ensure safety of students, resilience to future natural disasters and facilitate the teaching and learning process in schools.

Notwithstanding the need to rebuild the schools, there will also be urgent needs to help students re-integrate and continue their studies during the recovery. This will require providing them with much-needed textbooks and teaching and learn-ing material. In Somalia, it is estimated that there are

District

Potentially Impacted Facilities

Baseline Facilities

Rehabilitation Unit Cost

2005

School Rehabilitation

Cost 2019

Assume each school has

8 classrooms

Total Damages

(If assumed 100%)

Afmadou 1 8 30,000 30,807 8 249,536.70

Badhadhe 1 3 30,000 30,807 8 249,536.70

Bardera 9 9 30,000 30,807 73 2,245,830.30

Belet Hawa 3 13 30,000 30,807 24 748,610.10

Belet-Weyne 10 25 30,000 30,807 81 2,495,367.00

Burdubo 1 8 30,000 30,807 8 249,536.70

Dolo 2 2 30,000 30,807 16 499,073.40

Garba Hare 5 9 30,000 30,807 41 1,247,683.50

Jamame 19 23 30,000 30,807 154 4,741,197.30

Jilib 15 17 30,000 30,807 122 3,743,050.50

Kismaiyo 2 9 30,000 30,807 16 499,073.40

Luuq 2 3 30,000 30,807 16 499,073.40

Rab-Dure 1 5 30,000 30,807 8 249,536.70

Sakow 7 10 30,000 30,807 57 1,746,756.90

Wajid 3 3 30,000 30,807 24 748,610.10

UNICEF data (104 schools destroyed)

104 842 25,951,817

TABLE 20: DISTRIBUTION OF EDUCATION SECTOR DAMAGES BY DISTRICTS

52 Ibid.


1.8 million students in need;53 providing these needy students with the books and stationery they need will require around US$ 11.8 million (approximate-ly US$ 4.9 million and US$ 6.9 million for textbooks and stationery, respectively). However, in the flood affected schools (33,701 pupils), it is estimated that US$903,980 is required for school learning materials and equipment. The total funds needed to help the education sector restore basic services would require, in total, US$ 34.8 million.

Summary of Assessment MethodologyThe methodology used in this report was based on figures sourced from UNICEF reports prepared in the wake of the flooding, OCHA estimates on student numbers and data collected by FINA on the cost im-plications of the flooding in districts in the Hiraan region. Furthermore, FINA’s assessment sought to cover the full extent of damage incurred on the lo-cal populations, quantifying damage to agriculture, livestock, health, WASH, transport, infrastructure,

displacement in addition to the damage sustained by the education sector.

HealthSummaryDecades of insecurity and political instability cou-pled with decades of recurrent natural disasters and food insecurity have disrupted desperately needed health services and resulted in a fragile health sys-tem. Most facilities are in urban areas where the population concentration is high, while in the rural areas, there are inadequate facilities for underserved rural populations and an imbalance in relation to the population distribution. Based on a 2016 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) of public facilities, 79% of private 62% of public facilities are in urban areas.54 Communicable diseases ac-count for up to 54% of all causes of death among children under 5 years of age in Somalia. Recent es-timates show more than 300,000 Somali children under five years of age suffer from acute malnutri-tion.55 A total of 2.6 million people remain displaced within the country56 and live in sub-standard condi-tions. There is a high risk of disease outbreaks due to crowded settlements and a high risk of acute watery diarrhea (AWD)/cholera outbreaks due to limited ac-cess to basic sanitation and hygiene services.

The health care system in Somalia remains weak, poorly resourced and inequitably distributed. Around 3.3 million people in Somalia require emer-gency health services. Health expenditure remains very low and there is a critical shortage of health professional staff within facilities across Somalia, with the country’s private health worker’s density at 4.9 per 10,000 and the public health worker densi-ty at 4.3 per 10,000. Availability of qualified medical staff is predictably concentrated in urban areas with recruitment and retention challenges in rural areas. While there is likely an absolute shortage of health workers, the extent of health worker shortages ver-sus a lack of resources to remunerate health workers,

53 Somalia: Humanitarian Dashboard, OCHA.54 2016 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA).55 UNICEF, 2015. The Situation of Women and Children in Somalia.56 IOM October 2019 – Somalia’s 2.6m Internally Displaced Citizens in Need of Water, Shelter and Health.

Amount (US$)

Rehabilitation of 104 affected schoolsa 25,951,817

Provision of school learning materials and equipment

903,980

Provision of temporary learning spacesb 2,190,565

Committee mobilization & engagement to support education

208,000

Rapid Teacher recruitment and Training

378,900

Total 34,823,625a School needs multiplied by 20% to build back better.b Assume Temporary Learning Spaces Construction @ $2,700 Per 2 classroom Unit/ 80 Students and latrines @ $2,500 for both male and female toilets.

TABLE 21: DISTRIBUTION OF EDUCATION SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS


particularly for rural retention, is unclear. There are also believed to be many unqualified individuals pro-viding health services, particularly in private facilities.

The Somali private health sector has grown consid-erably in the absence of an effective public sector. Financial, as well as human resources are inadequate, and Somalia depends almost entirely on external sources for health financing. Figures from public and private assessments indicate that there are approx-imately 3,052 total facilities in Somalia, inclusive of Somaliland. Nationally, there are an estimated 1.66 fa-cilities per 10,000 populations across both the public and private sector.

As a result of the flooding, health facilities have been damaged and essential health services, such as immunization services and vector control activi-ties, were suspended.57 WHO requested additional support of US$ 1.38 million to further scale up and sustain its current surge operations in flood-affected districts, targeting 450,000 beneficiaries of the most affected populations with essential and life-saving health interventions for the next 3 months. At least 10 health facilities were reported by WHO to have been destroyed in the flood, while IPSOS reported 15 facilities to be impacted, thereby depleting health services in the affected districts.

The total effects (damages and losses) for the sector were estimated to be above US$42 million. The dam-ages to the sector were attributable to the 15 health facilities that were reported using remote sensing. The number of facilities that have been destroyed and have current catchment populations needs to be confirmed with WHO before the number of facil-ities that will be refurbished is finalized. The sector losses were estimated at about US$41 million, based on 15 damaged facilities. However, due to a lack of data, some of the additional potential losses that may have been incurred in the sector include losses in service provision, loss of staff due to attrition and migrations, losses in income secondary to lost man hours because of reduced access to health care and increased time to seek care as well as losses in health resources due to increase in cost of providing care through increased mobile units.

The recovery needs for the sector were estimated at over US$46 million. The recovery strategy will im-mediately address the needs that may aggravate the potential for disease outbreaks worsening the already dire situation. Hence, in addition to flood specific resilience measures, drought and conflict resilience measures should point toward restoring access and ensuring functioning of those institu-tions without access. There is need to ensure that the current health policy strategic plan is imple-mented effectively, putting in place a strategic human resource plan that will increase the cur-rent level of HRH, implementing a comprehensive health service delivery plan by increasing the num-ber of functional health facilities, and increasing the number of mobile clinics and specific communi-ty interventions such as immunization campaigns and AWD/Cholera awareness campaigns.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Health SectorOverview of the Health Status in SomaliaDecades of insecurity and political instability, cou-pled with decades of recurrent natural disasters and food insecurity have disrupted desperately needed

57 WHO EMRO | WHO requests US$ 1.38 million to continue emergency and life-saving health interventions.


health services and resulted in a fragile health sys-tem. As such, health systems are fragmented, health care structures are inadequate and there has been out-migration of health care providers. Although Somali health status is showing some early signs of improvement, progress is insufficient, and Somalia continues to rank among the worst countries in the world. The Under-Five and Maternal Mortality rates in Somalia are among the highest in the world; one out of every seven Somali children die before seeing their fifth birthday (132.5 deaths/1,000 live births) with a higher number in south and central Somalia. In 2016, the maternal mortality ratio for Somalia was 732 deaths per 100,000 live births as compared to 911 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2006.58

Most facilities are in urban areas where the popu-lation concentration is high, while in the rural areas there are inadequate facilities for underserved ru-ral populations and an imbalance in relation to the population distribution. Based on a 2016 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) of public facilities, 79% of private 62% of public facilities are in urban areas.59 Somalia has some of the poor-est health and development indicators both in the Africa region and globally. Communicable diseases account for up to 54% of all causes of death among children under 5 years of age in Somalia. Recent es-timates show more than 300,000 Somali children under-five suffer from acute malnutrition.60 The to-tal fertility rate is very high at 6.4 children per each woman in 2016.61 Overall life expectancy at birth is very low at 55.462 years compared to 68 years in the rest of the region63 and one in seven children die before their fifth birthday. Health care service utili-zation data in the country remain limited, and most information that exists is based on MICS and other surveys conducted in Somaliland and Puntland in 2011. Immunization coverage is among the lowest in

the world; Somalia is ranking fourth among countries with lowest DPT3 coverage globally of 42%.64

A total of 2.6 million people remain displaced with-in the country65 and live in sub-standard conditions. There is a high risk of disease outbreaks due to crowded settlements and a high risk of acute watery diarrhea (AWD)/cholera outbreaks due to limited ac-cess to basic sanitation and hygiene services. Since December 2017, a total of 9613 cumulative cas-es, including 50 deaths (CFR 0.5%), were reported from 3 states of Somalia (Hirshabelle, Jubaland and Southwest state) and Banadir region,66 with average 60% of cases among children under five years of age.

Somalia Health Systems and PoliciesThe health care system in Somalia remains weak, poorly resourced and inequitably distributed. Around 3.3 million people in Somalia require emer-gency health services. Health expenditure remains very low and there is a critical shortage of health professional staff within facilities across Somalia, with the country’s private health worker’s density at 4.9 per 10,000 and the public health worker densi-ty at 4.3 per 10,000. Availability of qualified medical staff is predictably concentrated in urban areas with recruitment and retention challenges in rural areas. Secondary healthcare service provision remains de-pressing with an obvious gap in hospital based service provision. These include vital hospitalization services for mothers and children, treatment of the increasing number of patients suffering of chronic and non-communicable diseases, and inadequate referral capacity to hospitals, stabilization centers and laboratory facilities.

The Somali private health sector has grown consid-erably in the absence of an effective public sector. Financial, as well as human resources are inadequate,

58 WHO, 2006 and 2016.59 2016 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA).60 UNICEF, 2015. The Situation of Women and Children in Somalia.61 UNICEF Somalia Statistics, 2010. World Bank Millennium Development Goals Global Data Monitoring.62 UNDP, 2015. Human Development Report 2015.63 WHO, 2015. Somalia Country Profile 2015.64 WHO and UNICEF, 2015. Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) 2015.65 IOM October 2019 – Somalia’s 2.6m Internally Displaced Citizens in Need of Water, Shelter and Health.66 Weekly AWD/Cholera Situation Report Somalia – Epidemiological Week 50 (9-15 December 2019).


FIGURE 15: HEALTH FACILITIES BY REGION

and Somalia depends almost entirely on external sources for health financing.

The Federal Government of Somalia has concluded the launch of the National Development Plan (NDP) cov-ering the period from 2020–2024 and under the Social and Human Development Pillar, health services con-tinue to be maintained through the framework of the Somalia Essential Services Package, which since 2016 has lowered mortality and morbidity resulting from cholera, measles and other communicable dis-eases, and maintained Somalia’s polio-free status.67

In 2017, the Federal Government of Somalia devel-oped the second phase Health Sector Strategic Plan (HSSP II) for 2017–2021. The HSSP II is comprised of nine strategic priorities plus a set of 12 health targets that focus on the implementation of the essential package of health services (EPHS) that will be made accessible

to all people in Somalia. The World Bank is supporting the Government to reprioritize the EPHS. It is current-ly too broad to be implemented and not mapped to available resources. The Essential Package of Health Services (EPHS) in Somalia does not reach the full pop-ulation. According to 2017 World Health Organization (WHO) figures, approximately 47/89 districts are cov-ered by Somalia’s Essential Package of Health Services (EPHS), translating into an estimate of approxi-mately 5.7 million people with access to the EPHS.

The Somali National Medicines Policy was devel-oped and endorsed in 2014, the National Medicines Supply Chain Master plan for Somalia was finalized in 2015 and the Medicines Regulatory Authority was established in 2016, and a national health law was drafted in 2017. The Somali Health and Demographic Survey (SHDS) is coordinated by UNFPA in conjunc-tion with the Somali Statistical Office throughout the country. The SHDS aims to provide guidance to development programs, monitor and evaluate de-velopment plans, and guide policy making.

There are a total of 3,052 health facilities in Somalia in-clusive of both public and private facilities. Nationally, there are an estimated 1.66 facilities per 10,000 pop-ulations across both the public and private sector.

According to a 2015 survey done by WHO in Somalia, a total of 1074 facilities had been identified, of which 106 were found to be non-functional and 169 were not reachable due to conflict and other similar fac-tors.68 However, IPSOS data analyzed for the affected regions suggest a significant improvement, as out of the 467 facilities in 10 flood-affected regions, 254 (54 percent) are functioning or have access while 213 have no access.

According to the data provided by IPSOS, there are 467 health facilities in the affected regions with a population of approximately 7 million people. The data indicate that Gedo has the highest num-ber of health facilities, 92 (20 percent) followed by Galgaduud (14 percent) and Banadir (13 percent).

67 Somalia National Development Plan 2020–2024.68 WHO and UNICEF, 2015. Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) 2015.


Post-Flood Context and Impact on Health SectorThe flood has plunged Somalia further into a deep humanitarian emergency, which has led to large scale displacement of over 370,000 people, with 17 dead and 47 injured according to the Flood Response Plan. As a result of the flooding, health facilities have been damaged and essential health services, such as im-munization services and vector control activities, were suspended.69 Movement of relief items, includ-ing medical supplies, was hampered by damage to roads, while the standing waters increased risk of wa-ter and vector-borne diseases owing to lack of access of the displaced population to safe water and sanita-tion, including due to disruption of essential health services.

AWD/cholera, malaria and water-borne diseases are likely to spread further, particularly in new, con-gested settlements for Internally Displaced People (IDP) due to overcrowding, poor sanitation facilities and insufficient access to safe water. The overall sit-uation of health in Somalia remains challenging. The flood coupled with persistent insecurity has left most of the health work in the hands of NGO and bilater-al donors. With minimal or no financing from central government, this has created challenges in access to basic health care. WHO has requested additional sup-port of US$ 1.38 million to further scale up and sustain its current surge operations in the flood-affected dis-tricts, targeting 450,000 beneficiaries of the most affected population with essential and life-saving health interventions for the next 3 months.

69 WHO EMRO | WHO requests US$ 1.38 million to continue emergency and life-saving health interventions.

Health facilities

RegionTotal

Population

Number of health facilities

With access/

functioningWithout access

Maternal and child

health clinics

(MCH/HC) Hospital TB Centers

Primary Health

Unit/Post (PHU/HP)

Galgaduud 569,434 67 28 39 29 13 5 20

Hiraan 520,685 41 23 18 30 2 7 2

Middle Shabelle

516,036 40 22 18 12 6 3 19

Banadir 1,650,227 61 57 4 48 5 8 —

Lower Shabelle

1,202,219 53 28 25 39 5 7 2

Bay 792,182 39 31 8 29 4 4 2

Bakool 367,226 18 12 6 14 2 2 —

Gedo 508,405 92 36 56 32 5 4 51

Middle Juba

362,921 23 — 23 17 4 2 —

Lower Juba

489,307 33 17 16 25 5 1 2

Total 6,978,642 467 254 213 275 51 43 98

TABLE 22: DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH FACILITIES PER POPULATION IN THE AFFECTED REGIONS


TABLE 23: DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH SECTOR DAMAGES BY DISTRICTS

District

Potentially Impacted Facilities

Baseline Facilities

Health Facility Rehabilitation Unit Cost 2005

Health Facility Rehabilitation Unit Cost 2019

Assuming 70% damages

Bardere 1 1 115,000 118,094 82,665

Belet Hawa 1 1 115,000 118,094 82,665

Bu’alle 3 3 115,000 118,094 247,996

Garbaharey 2 3 115,000 118,094 165,331

Jamaame 1 2 115,000 118,094 82,665

Jilib 4 4 115,000 118,094 330,662

Jowhar 1 3 115,000 118,094 82,665

Luuq 1 2 115,000 118,094 82,665

Rabdure 1 1 115,000 118,094 82,665

IPSOS data (15 Health Facilities destroyed) 15 20 1,239,982

WHO data (10 facilities destroyed) 826,655

As reported by WHO, the areas affected by the cur-rent flood are prone to epidemics, such as cholera, malaria and other vector-borne diseases. At least 10 health facilities were reported by WHO to have been completely destroyed in the flood, while IPSOS reported 15 facilities to be impacted, thereby de-pleting health services in the affected districts. The number of facilities damaged and whether these facilities have catchment populations needs to be confirmed with WHO.

Damages and LossesThe total effects (damages and losses) for the sector were estimated to be above US$42 million. The dam-ages to the sector were attributable to the 15 health facilities that were reported using remote sensing. The damage replacement cost was estimated at about US$ 1.2 million. The assessment assumed the unit rehabilitation cost at US$ 118,094 after factoring in an inflationary figure for the past six years plus an assumption that 70 percent replacement cost for the facilities was required for full rehabilitation.

The sector losses were estimated at about US$40.7 million. The losses for the health sector were iden-tified as additional costs for treatment of AWD/

Cholera cases for the next 12 months as a result of the floods, and losses incurred on replacing health supplies and equipment. The assessment calculat-ed the costs based on an incidence rate estimated based on the pre-flood cases and post-flood cases. Data on cholera incidents and fatalities were avail-able from the WHO weekly AWD/Cholera situation report provided on a weekly basis through for the period starting October 2019 to December 2019. Informed by the WHO weekly reports, the assess-ment assumed that 60 percent were children under the age of five, while 40 percent were adults need-ing treatment. However, due to a lack of data, some of the potential losses that may have been incurred in the sector include losses in service provision, loss of staff due to attrition and migrations, losses in income secondary to lost man hours because of re-duced access to health care and increased time to seek care as well as losses in health resources due to increase in cost of providing care through increased mobile units.

Additional costs for replacement of health supplies and equipment lost or impaired during the floods was estimated as losses for the sector. The losses are estimated at US$13.9 million.


The challenging nature of the floods in Somali is such that it is occurring alongside a context of drought and continued conflict, which has resulted in further population displacement and destruction of facil-ities. The displacement has increased the number of IDP with a resultant increase in crowding condi-tions and epidemic borne diseases such as measles, cholera and acute respiratory tract infections. The destruction of secondary health facilities has also created a loss due to increase in cost of managing health conditions requiring secondary care. The floods, political environment and drought combined have resulted into increase in mobile health service delivery which is extremely costly to both maintain and manage. However, given the challenging polit-ical and conflict environment, a conscious decision on how to move forward must be made especially on focusing development and humanitarian needs as part of the longer term response.

Impact to the Sector (Economic and Social Impact)The destruction of infrastructure including water supply and sanitation may predispose the communi-ty to diarrhea and other water borne epidemic prone diseases especially cholera and typhoid. The risk of diarrhea diseases remains high in the districts affect-ed by the flood due to the interruption in the water and hygiene infrastructure.

Effect on Infrastructure and ServicesThe destruction of facilities provides increased pressure on Somalia’s health infrastructure and com-pounds the already dire situation. This means that the number of people unable to access basic health services will increase resulting in increased risk of the spread of various diseases. For instance, the effect of the floods coupled by the drought and combined with the current political instability has resulted in rapid movement of IDPs, which, in turn, has over-whelmed health facilities. The delivery of life-saving medicines and medical equipment has been irreg-ular due to insecurity, road inaccessibility, electricity and fuel shortages and disruption in the cold chain. Overcrowding, lack of functioning referral systems, limited access to health services, unsafe water use and hygiene practice, and underlying malnutrition pose major challenges for the control and preven-tion of disease outbreaks.

Increased Risks and VulnerabilitiesThe continued political instability, forced evic-tions of internally displaced people (IDPs), ongoing armed conflict, and cyclical and recurring disas-ters have been identified as some of the drivers of vulnerability in the country. The coverage and quality of basic social services in the country remains extremely low. Recurrent flooding condi-tions destroy infrastructure as well as disrupt basic social services, which leads to disease outbreaks. The floods have a severe impact on vulnerable people in Somalia. They have worsened an already widespread drought in Somalia and have had a devastating impact on communities and led to in-creased food insecurity.

Impact of the Floods on Service ProvisionFloods contribute to the outbreak of epidemic prone diseases such as Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/Cholera and measles, and malaria some of which are cross-border outbreaks. Somalia remains suscep-tible to disease outbreaks mostly due to deprived health conditions, and as the flood standing water take long to recede, they are likely to continue to in-tensify disease outbreaks. Somalia has experienced a large–scale outbreak of cholera since the begin-ning of 2107. Since December 2017, a total of 9613

Item Damages Losses

Total Damages

and Losses (USD)

15 Health Facilities destroyed

1,239,982 1,239,982

AWD/Cholera 26,862,533 26,862,533

Supplies and Equipment

13,884,507 13,884,507

Total 1,239,982 40,747,040 41,987,022

TABLE 24: HEALTH SECTOR SUMMARY OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES


TABLE 25: DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS

Intervention Short TermMedium-Long

TermTotal Needs

(USD)

Rehabilitation of 15 health facilities destroyed 595,191 892,787 1,487,978

Provision of health care services for AWD/Cholera cases for the next 12 months

26,862,533 26,862,533

Purchase and restore health supplies and equipment lost in the flooding

8,330,704 5,553,803 13,884,507

Develop or strengthen a National Health Surveillance System linked with integrated disease surveillance and response system (IDSR).

2,646,000 1,134,000 3,780,000

Total 25,003,162 21,011,856 46,015,018

cumulative cases, including 50 deaths (CFR 0.5%), were reported from 3 states of Somalia (Hirshabelle, Jubbaland and South West state) and Banadir region. By mid-December, a total of 126 new cases of chol-era and two deaths were reported from 11 districts of Banadir region. No case was reported from oth-er areas.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Health SectorRecovery NeedsThe recovery needs for the sector were estimat-ed at over US$46 million. The following recovery needs should be priority areas for the health sector: i) Prevention of epidemic prone diseases focusing on malaria, cholera and typhoid through improvement of water quality, provision of sanitation, distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN), larval source management, oral cholera vaccination campaigns; ii) Epidemic preparedness including strengthening of national surveillance and early warning systems as well as appropriate prepositioning of stocks and surge personnel for epidemic response; iii) Managing injuries and other conditions arising out of the disas-ter including mental illnesses; iv) Increasing access to obstetric services to pregnant women at high risk of developing obstetric complications; vi)Procurement and distribution of essential drugs and medical sup-plies; vii) Rehabilitation of health facilities; and viii) Strengthening and scaling up primary health care as well as additional staff needed to cope with in-creased demand for health services in affected areas.

Recovery StrategyThe recovery strategy will immediately address needs that may aggravate the potential for disease outbreaks worsening the already dire situation. However, it should be noted that the flood context in Somalia is compounded by drought and con-flict. Hence, in addition to flood-specific resilience measures, drought and conflict-resilience mea-sures should point toward restoring access and ensuring functioning of those institutions without access. There is a need to ensure that the current health policy strategic plan is implemented effec-tively, putting in place a strategic human resource plan that will increase the current level of HRH, implementing a comprehensive health’s service delivery plan by increasing the number of func-tional health facilities, increasing the number of mobile clinics and specific community interven-tions such as immunization campaigns and AWD/Cholera awareness campaigns. The implementa-tion of the Somalia Health Demographic Survey should be expedited to inform decision making. Cross cutting issues on water and sanitation, food rehabilitation, social protection should be an inte-gral part of health sector recovery strategy.

Summary of Assessment Methodology

The assessment puts into perspective an overview of Somali health sector within the context of floods, the government and donor interventions that have been


put in place to help in reviving the sector as well as highlight the impact of the drought and ongoing conflict. The data and information were sourced from various secondary sources including Somalia’s National Development Plan, Health Policy Report as well as existing reports by the partners that include IPSOS, World Bank, WHO, UNICEF and OCHA.

The assessment has been carried out entirely as a desk review. The filed information gained provided insights into the situation in different zones. The baseline and impact data are sourced from various publicly avail-able reports and remote sensing that provide data for the respective time frames. The qualitative anal-ysis relies hugely on data informed assumptions from secondary reports, government information and remote sensing. Data on cholera incidents and fatalities are available on a weekly basis for the peri-od starting October 2019 through December 2019. A weighted average of the weekly data has been used as the monthly average of the cases and fatalities.

A literature review of the National Development Plan and policy documents helped bring out the vari-ous legal and regulatory issues as well as the short and long-term interventions required to revive the sector. The impact data, on the other hand, have been sourced from nationwide government-donor supported initiatives that are currently running in Somalia.

Transport

SummarySomalia’s network of roads is 21,933 km long and comprises 2,860 km (13%) of paved streets; 844 km (4%) are gravel; 18,229 km (83%) are earth; 2,662 km are primary roads; 4,850 km are secondary roads; and 14,421 km are rural/feeder roads. According to the 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia (PESS), there are about 12.3 million people in Somalia, of which 5.2 million or about 40 percent of the total live in urban areas.70 This means that about 7.1 mil-lion people still live far from a road that is in good

or fair condition. Out of 126,000 km of roads (includ-ing unclassified feeder roads), only about 6 percent of the total network is estimated to be in good or fair condition. This means that market accessibility is a challenge for most farmers in Somalia, more espe-cially in the flood affected areas.

The road network is classified into primary, second-ary and rural/feeder roads. The primary road network is mostly paved and serves major population centers and the secondary road network connects settle-ments of local significance to one another and to the primary road network and is predominantly earth roads or tracks. According to the AfDB report on Somalia the Transport Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme, the total number of vehicles in Somalia is estimated to be 132,000.

According to remote sensing data provided by IPSOS, the total road network in the affected re-gions is estimated to be about 6,887km (31percent of the total road network), of which 1,856km is main or primary roads, with 2,463km as secondary/feeder roads, and 2,568km tertiary roads. The to-tal length of paved roads is estimated at 1,100km, while 4,856km is unpaved and 931km is unknown.

Major damages on road infrastructure have been confirmed in such forms as: washed away road

70 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia.


sections, erosion on road shoulder and lanes, washed away surface and sub-surface pavement materials, clogging and erosion of drainage, and road blockage by debris. Road structures were also heavily impact-ed, including washed away bridges and approaches; damaged or clogged culverts, drifts and inverts; and washed away or damaged ancillary infrastructure, such as guard rails, fences, signs, street lights, and traffic lights.

The 10 affected regions contain 31 percent (6887km) of the total road network. Remote sens-ing data indicate that an area about 4,362km² was totally flooded with a total of 321km of road dam-aged. The total damages for the sector are estimated at US$94.8 million for 321km of roads, 23 bridges and 5 percent of road embankments destroyed. Using the remote sensing data 99km of roads were dam-aged at a total estimated cost of US$29.4 million, 121.7km of secondary roads estimated at US$18 mil-lion and US$ 9million for 99.6 km of tertiary roads in length of damaged roads. The remote sensing data indicated that 23 bridges were possible dam-aged. The cost of rehabilitating 23 bridges was estimated at US$35 million. Damages to road em-bankments were estimated at US$2.8 million. The losses included additional cost for road drainage clearing and bypass roads on a strategic network to allow passage of vehicles for relief and reconstruc-tion. These losses are estimated at US$ 564,244.

The recovery needs in the transport sector will aim to restore accessibility to flood-affected areas by recon-structing and rehabilitating roads damaged to allow

for social-economic recovery of the communities. Recovery interventions include rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and bridges at a cost of US$ 115.9 million aimed at providing improved linkag-es, targeting areas that are hard hit by the flood. The initiatives are expected to contribute to the people’s socio-economic activities and improve their liveli-hood through improved accessibility and short-term employment from the labor-intensive road rehabili-tation works.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Transport SectorSomalia’s network of roads is 21,933 km long and 2,860 km (13%) of streets are paved; 844 km (4%) are gravel; 18,229 km (83%) are earth; 2,662 km are primary roads; 4,850 km are secondary roads; and 14,421 km are rural/feeder roads.71

There are five major roads that connect the main wa-ter corridors to the inland towns. However, the roads have not received proper maintenance through their life span, which is more than 30 years. During the rainy season, most of these roads, especially in south-ern Somalia, are not passable due to their condition. The paved roads are heavily damaged and make mobility dangerous. The condition of the second-ary roads in the rainy season is worse than the main roads, although they may be passable in some cases.

Population and Road AccessibilitySomalia is relatively highly urbanized, with most of the population living in or near cities. However, many farmers and pastoralists still live in rural areas and are

Type of SurfacePrimary/main

roads (km)Secondary roads (km)

Rural/feeder roads (km) All Roads (km) Percentage

Paved 2,442 418 — 2,860 13%

Gravel — 844 — 844 4%

Earth 220 3,588 14,421 18,229 83%

Total 2,662 4,850 14,421 21,933 100%

TABLE 26: ROAD TYPE BY SERVICES

71 Somalia_Transport_Sector_Needs_Assessment_and_Investment_Programme 2016.


not well connected to domestic or international mar-kets. According to the 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia (PESS), there are about 12.3 mil-lion people in Somalia, of which 5.2 million or about 40 percent of the total live in urban areas.72 This means that about 7.1 million people still live far from a road that is in good or fair condition. Out of 126,000 km of roads (including unclassified feeder roads), only about 6 percent of the total network is estimated to be in good or fair condition. This means that market accessibility is a challenge for most farm-ers in Somalia, more especially in the flood-affected areas.

Road Network in SomaliaIn Somalia a functioning rail system is nonexistent; the inland and overland transport has resulted into a successful road network that extends thousands of kilometers. The road network is classified into pri-mary, secondary and rural/feeder roads. The primary road network is mostly paved and serves major pop-ulation centers and the secondary road network connects settlements of local significance to one another and to the primary road network, and is pre-dominantly earth roads or tracks. Animal transport includes camels and donkeys which continue to be the most important and only means of transport for many people. With insecurity, and deteriorating road networks, air transport also continues to play an im-portant role.

Somalia_Administrative_Map_A4 (UNOCHA 2012)The majority of the roads in Somaliland are murram, block cotton or red soil and sandy along the coast-line. Maintenance is done regularly to the tarmac roads, but because of the poor quality of mainte-nance, it does not last long. The Road Development Agency (RDA) reported that the maximum axle load is 10 tonnes and maximum allowable load is up to 30 tonnes.73 No re-sealing or reconstruction is be-ing done to accommodate larger axle loads. The European Union (EU) did a feasibility study for the

“Berbera Corridor Project” on large seasonal river crossings with flash flooding causing some delays on the road between Berbera and Ethiopia where the EU was considering constructing of bridges.

Somalia Traffic Count Data and Traffic VolumesThere were no definite data available for the roads in the flood affected regions, so the assessment used the data from the AfDB report on Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme. The report also indicates that no avail-able proper traffic counts data were provided for roads in other states, so an average (38% for com-mercial and 62% for passengers, which is an average for Somaliland and Puntland) has been used for esti-mating total traffic on various routes.74

The road transport sector consists of private and commercial vehicles. Commercial vehicles in the transport industry consists of individual transport-ers and a small range of agencies. For the cargo movement, trucks with capacities of 5–30 mt are commonly used.

The road transport market in Somalia is one that normally meets the lead time and demand of the market, and the supply chain is simply regulated without major problems except during the rainy seasons where delay to commercial/humanitarian goods and services delivery is experienced. In gen-eral, road transport is the major means of delivery in the country. Current capacity meets domestic needs, and the market has the capacity to accommodate an influx in demand from the humanitarian com-munity. National market in main towns, for instance Bossaso and Mogadishu are large scale operators while Baidoa and Galkayo are small-scale operators at the national market level. The main national mar-ket town provides supplies through road transport to other surrounding regions and districts that finally supply to the villages. Major road transport operators are local commercial/businessmen that normally

72 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia.73 Ibid.74 Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme 2016.


FIGURE 16: SOMALIA ADMINISTRATIVE MAP

operate as individual businessmen, and the radius of their operations are wide and covers from region to region (south to north) and sometimes across the neighboring regions (Kenya/Somalia).

According to remote sensing data provided by IPSOS, the total road network in the affected regions is esti-mated to be about 6,887km (31percent of total road network), of which 1,856km is main or primary roads, 2,463km as secondary/ feeder roads, and 2,568km tertiary roads. The total length of paved roads is es-timated at 1,100km, while 4,856km is unpaved and 931km is unknown. Most of the feeder roads are either gravel or earth roads and are in poor condition. These data were disaggregated according to the length of roads in each region and give more detail in terms of road class distribution of the network per region.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on Transport SectorMajor damages on road infrastructure have been confirmed in such forms as: washed away road sec-tions, erosion on road shoulder and lanes, washed away surface and sub-surface pavement materials, clogging and erosion of drainage, and road block-age by debris. Road structures were also heavily impacted, including washed away bridges and ap-proaches; damaged or clogged culverts, drifts and inverts; washed away or damaged ancillary infra-structure, such as guard rails, fences, signs, street lights, and traffic lights. Roads that connect towns and villages in these regions have been severely damaged due to the heavy rain, inundation, and the flow of water and debris.


Road Category Surface type

Region Primary Secondary Tertiary

Total Length of road (km) Paved Unpaved Unknown

Total Length of road (km)

Number of bridges

Gedo 156.3 837.3 181.4 1,175 134.2 966 74.8 1,175 9

Lower Juba 352.7 35.3 513 901 114.4 671.5 115.1 901 7

Middle Juba 107.7 217.3 174 499 20.1 316.7 162.3 499 5

Hiraan 291.8 203.5 233 728 42.6 562.7 123.7 729 94

Lower Shabelle

370 346.8 314 1,031 271.2 617.5 142.1 1,031 16

Middle Shabelle

130.4 60.4 378.7 570 131.6 422.1 15.8 570 6

Bakool — —

Banadir 30.4 50.8 92.4 174 19.2 154.3 174 2

Bay 197.5 544.9 439 1,181 385.5 658.8 137.1 1,181 7

Galgaduud 218.7 166.5 242.3 628 621.5 5.9 627 0

Grand Total Length of road kms

1,856 2,463 2,568 6,886 1,100 4,856 931 6,887 146

TABLE 27: TRANSPORT SECTOR BASELINE DATA BY REGIONS

It is assumed that the damage to roads has been caused by exposure to high velocity flood water and inundation. In some cases, water flowed over the road causing severe and long-term damage. The 10 affect-ed regions comprise 31 percent (6887km) of the total road network. Remote sensing data indicate that an area of about 4,362km² was totally flooded with a total of 321km of road damaged. This represents 5 percent of the total road network in the affected re-gions and 1 percent of the total roads in Somalia. The highest impact on road damages in the 10 affected regions out of the total recorded was observed in the Hiraan region (30 percent), Lower (26 percent) and Middle Juba (26 percent). Moderate damages were also recorded in Middle Shabelle, while minor dam-ages were recorded in Lower Shabelle and Gedo regions. However, no damages on roads were record-ed in Bakool, Banadir, Bay and Galgaduud. A summary of damages to road infrastructure is in Table 28.

Damages and LossesThe total damages for the sector are estimated at US$94.8 million for 321km of roads, 23 bridges and

StateTotal Flood Area (km2)

Sum of Road Impact/km

Sum of Ag. Impact/km2

Bakool — — 0

Banadir — — —

Bay — — 112

Galgaduud — — —

Gedo 709 13 88

Hiraan 771 97 55

Lower Juba 815 85 44

Lower Shabelle

82 3 24

Middle Juba

910 84 154

Middle Shabelle

1,074 39 598

Grand Total 4,362 321 1,075

Source: Remote sensing IPSOS.

TABLE 28: TRANSPORT SECTOR FLOODING IMPACT BY DISTRICTS


Type of Damage/Loss Total Length (km) Per unit cost (2019)50% full damage, 50% partial damage (USD)

Primary roads 99.3 395,200 29,419,043

Secondary roads 121.7 197,600 18,039,320

Tertiary roads 99.6 120,000 8,966,038

Number of bridges 23 2,028,798 34,996,757

Road embankments 2,821,220

Road drainage clearing and bypass roads

564,244

Grand Total 94,806,623

TABLE 29: DISTRIBUTION OF TRANSPORT SECTOR DAMAGES AND LOSSES

5 percent of road embankments destroyed. For roads, the damage estimate took into consideration that during the SUIPP, it was originally estimated that a unit cost of 1km of road would be US$200,000, however the PEDs determined that this was grossly underestimated and the cost per 1km is US$380,000 (almost 90% higher than the original estimate). Using the remote sensing data, 99km of roads were dam-aged at a total estimated cost of US$29.4 million, 121.7km of secondary roads estimated at US$18 mil-lion and US$ 9million for 99.6 km of tertiary roads.

For damages to bridges, remote sensing indicated damage likely occurred as a result of the flood extent and inundation. The remote sensing data indicated that 23 bridges were possibly damaged. The analysis referenced a WFP unit replacement cost (WFP initial estimate for total construction) and estimated that 50% cost was required for rehabilitation. Therefore, the cost of rehabilitating 23 bridges was estimated at US$35 million. Damages to road embankments were estimated at US$2.8 million. The losses included ad-ditional cost for road drainage clearing and bypass roads on strategic network to allow passage of ve-hicles for relief and reconstruction. These losses are estimated at US$ 564,244.

Changes in Traffic Volumes and Trade DiversionThe transport sector consists of various categories of roads infrastructure. Preliminary estimates indicate that 1 percent of the road network (approximately 321 km) was damaged by the floods. The transport

sector is considered an enabling sector for oth-er sectors, providing linkages to regional trade and socio-economic activities. The disruption to the roads has a two-fold impact on the mobility of the affected population: returning to the villages is diffi-cult and, once returned, access to markets and basic services is curtailed. While some of the road network is expected to be restored in the short-term, the primary roads network will continue to hamper reha-bilitation and access to basic services such as health, education, markets, public services, and communi-cations in the medium- to long-term.

According to the AfDB report on Somalia Trans-port Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme, the total number of vehicles in Soma-lia is estimated to be 132,000. This estimate is based partly on secondary data, partly on vehicle registra-tions and the growth rate calculated from available data and partly using derived numbers based on fu-el consumption. There were no proper traffic counts data provided for roads in the affected areas, so the assessment informed by the AfDB report assumes an average of 38% for commercial and 62% for pas-sengers, which is an average for Somaliland and Puntland. This average was used for estimating total traffic in the affected regions.

Impact to the Sector (Economic and Social Impact)The poor roads and/or inaccessibility as a result of damages to the road network would thus have a negative impact both economically and socially. For


example, there will be limited movement of goods, especially agricultural commodities from the farm to the markets, or movement of people to access basic services such as health facilities or education. However, these effects are difficult to quantify at this stage. Losses in revenue will be experienced by trans-porters during the downtime period; however, there might be an increase in transportation of goods when government imports food and relief items that need to be distributed to the affected areas, requir-ing the services of the transport sector enterprises.

Impassable road sections such as those washed away will be a major factor to delay the emergen-cy relief and reconstruction efforts in all sectors in the areas connected via those bridges. Access de-lays to those areas due to detours or slowing down will have a long lasting and broad impact. Importing and exporting of goods to and from the neighboring countries will also be affected as strategic regional corridors pass through Somalia.

Roads serve as the lifeline of the disaster-affected re-gion. Roads are the mode of transport for people in the regions to ship goods to markets and factories, to go to cities to receive health and civil services, and to commute to the schools in the nearby towns. The extensive damages on roads would significantly stall the economic activities of the regions and reduce the quality of life of the people. Reconstruction efforts on roads will take a long time because of the amount of structures such as bridges, foot bridges, culvert, pipe ways, etc. Until the completion of the work, the areas

connected via such roads and structures will suffer from the loss or limited access to market, services, and employment.

The flood disaster brings in the prospect of increased transportation costs due to longer travel distanc-es and increased time required to transport, which in turn, would translate into higher fuel costs for the transportation enterprises. Consequently, these costs would end up being paid by the end-user and will be evidenced from huge differences between farm gate and retail prices for most commodities. Seasonal jobs offered by transporters (e.g. truck drivers, assistants, transport laborers and mechanics) would also be af-fected negatively.

Security is a challenge and implementation of any set of interventions will be affected by the poor road network. The flood impact has further exacerbated the situation as according to the WFP, some of the primary roads are currently closed or difficult to pass due to conflict while other roads are impassable due to broken bridges.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Transport SectorRecovery NeedsThe recovery needs in the transport sector will aim to restore accessibility to flood-affected areas by re-constructing and rehabilitating roads damaged to allow for social-economic recovery of the communi-ties. This rehabilitation will need to follow a “building back better” concept in order to build resilience to fu-ture climate shocks. Recovery needs for the transport sector are not limited to damaged infrastructure but there may be include recovery needs for the trans-port operators who have lost business due to the flooding.

Recovery interventions include rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and bridges at a cost of US$ 115.9 million aimed at providing improved linkag-es, targeting areas that were hard hit by the flood. The initiatives are expected to contribute to the people’s socio-economic activities and improve their livelihood through improved accessibility and short-term employment from the labor intensive

DescriptionCars/

pickupsVans/

minibuses Trucks Total

Total vehicles in Somalia

54,685 66,838 10,000 131,523

vehicles in affected regions

20,780 41,440 6,200 68,420

Percentage of total

16 32 5 52

TABLE 30: CHANGES IN TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND TRADE DIVERSION


InterventionTransitional

Phase (1–2 years)

Medium-term Recovery Phase

(2–3 years) Total Needs (USD)

Rehabilitation of 23 bridges 12,598,832 29,397,275.78 41,996,108

Rehabilitation of 321 km of roads 20,312,785 47,396,497.30 67,709,282

Carry out road drainage clearing and bypass roads on strategic network to allow passage of vehicles for relief and reconstruction

394,970.81 169,273.20 564,244

Strengthen damaged road embankments and structures

1,692,732 1,692,732 3,385,464

Install bailey bridges on damaged bridge sites, and conduct temporary repairs to restore traffic

2,099,805 2,099,805

Engage local communities in restoration works utilizing labor intensive methods.

—

Assessment of the availability of construction materials (e.g. bitumen/asphalt, cement, steel) and making provisions including special waiver of policies, if needed, to facilitate imports;

67,709 67,709

Assessment of the availability of skilled and unskilled manpower for construction works and arranging vocational training as needed

67,709 67,709

Total 37,234,544 78,655,778 115,890,322

TABLE 31: DISTRIBUTION OF TRANSPORT SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS

road rehabilitation works. The building-back-better concept will be applied for sustainability of the re-habilitation works. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges will be done in the short-and medium-term as some of the interventions require proper schemes incorporating procurement of works and options for labor-intensive works, creating employment opportunities for those affected and full reconstruction in some cases.

The recovery needs for the sector include: i) Temporary reconstruction of roads, bridges and bypass roads on strategic networks to allow passage of vehicles for re-lief and reconstruction. This can improve the access to remote locations while accelerating the reconstruc-tion of infrastructure in the region; ii) Concurrently with the above, plan and carry out disaster impact surveys to develop an inventory of road infrastructure requiring reconstruction and repair works (to establish the actual cost required); iii) Conduct reconstruction works as per the findings of the developed inventory.

Recovery Strategy for Transport SectorThe strategy for the sector aims at bringing accessi-bility to those areas that have been prioritized by the respective sectors. Reconstruction works will aim at linkages that are completely destroyed but are crit-ical for the recovery, especially primary roads. These would require bitumen surfacing and/or low-vol-ume paving. Meanwhile some of the primary roads that would bring positive impact but are not com-pletely destroyed may receive basic maintenance to make them passable. The other roads, mainly feed-er roads, will require rehabilitation, mostly gravel. Depending on several factors like security, availability of labor and extent of road damage, some may be re-habilitated using equipment while others would use labor intensive methods. The labor-intensive meth-ods would be vital in order to provide short-term employment to communities and improve their live-lihood, but to also impact basic skills to the people of road rehabilitation techniques and hope they can use these to sustain the roads.


All projects formulated for rehabilitation and recon-struction of roads and bridges will require following standard procedures and technical requirements with regard to road construction standards ap-plicable to the region. This will ensure that the building-back-better concept is properly captured for resilience in the sector. To achieve this, a con-sulting firm would need to be engaged as technical assistance to conduct a detailed analysis of the roads and bridges and come up with detailed designs that can be used by contractors and communities for construction and rehabilitation.

Summary of Assessment MethodologyThere was no physically verified geo-referenced data on damages to the road network. The time constraints for this assessment and the conflict sit-uation could not allow for detailed data collection. This analysis took advantage of remote sensing da-ta made available by Ipsos. The remote sensing data assumed the probability of damages based on the flooding extent and inundation levels. Secondary data from development agencies, such as the United Nations, African Development Bank and the World Bank, have been used for analysis. Most of the da-ta obtained offered different information (e.g. on the length of the road network in Somalia) and it was difficult to reconcile this data in the absence of first hand verification. Effort has been made to use the data in the most effective way possible. The different perspectives are discussed in the sections that fol-low. This assessment covered only the flood affected regions of Somalia.

Disaster Risk Management

SummaryDisaster Risk Management, together with Social Protection, is considered within the key themes in the Somalia’s National Development Plan. The de-velopment of the National Disaster Management Policy is a major step towards ensuring that disas-ter risk management is a collective responsibility and is integrated in the development planning by all sectors in the country. This policy presents the in-stitutional structures, roles, responsibilities and key

processes required to achieve a coordinated, coher-ent and consistent management of disaster related issues.

Disaster Risk Management is cross cutting across all sectors. Also, disaster risk management shall cov-er not only preparedness, emergency response, and recovery, but also risk assessment and disas-ter risk reduction interventions both structural and non-structural measures. Therefore, while this chap-ter utilized similar methodology with other sectors in estimation of damage and loss of DRM sector for consistency, final chapter of the FINA report on way forward describes concrete steps and actions to strengthen flood risk management for long term resilience to realize paradigm shift for sustainable development.

Damage and loss of DRM sector is estimated at USD 6.1 million and USD 9.0 million, respectively. The estimated total early recovery needs for DRM sec-tor are approximately US$41.8 million. In the short term 15% of the early recovery financial needs were required for immediate recovery, while 85% of finan-cial needs were required in the medium-term period. This estimation does not include long term needs for flood risk management interventions.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Disaster Risk Management SectorCountry Disaster Risk ProfileSomalia’s disaster profile is dominated by droughts and floods exacerbated by conflicts and political un-rest for three decades. This has disrupted people’s lives and livelihoods, endangered human and food security, weakened the social protection schemes and destroyed the infrastructure of the country. The increasing intensity and frequency of disasters, in light of climate change, urbanization and environ-mental degradation retards the stabilization and recovery process of the country. The magnitude of the disasters impact is intensified by inadequate planning to mitigate and respond in a timely man-ner. It is important to address the increasing disaster risks in a holistic way that requires simultaneous ac-tion on different fronts for making our nation resilient to disasters.


DroughtFailure of rains in either season, Gu and Deyr,75 is very common causing crop losses and drying up of pas-tures with persistent dry conditions. Somalia’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), which make up more than 80% of the country’s landmass and house the greatest national proportion of pastoralists in Africa, are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather con-ditions. Nearly 70 percent of Somalis are dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture and pastoralism. The pastoralists depend upon rain-fed rangeland graz-ing for their livestock and tend to have very few fixed assets. While climatic factors contribute to drought, human factors like ongoing conflict limit lack of ac-cess to pastureland and cause failure of a social protection system, however rudimentary, leading to disasters and famine like the one in 2010–2011.

Years of conflict, lack of governance and underinvest-ment have contributed to deterioration in the water sources and reservoirs that existed in the 1970s. At the local level, proactive, community-based natural resource management and disaster preparedness is limited. Communities lack knowledge of effec-tive rainwater harvesting techniques and are unable to efficiently capture and store runoff during heavy rains for use during the dry season. A small number of villages capture and store rainwater in traditional dug wells (berkeds), but this is not done systemati-cally. Rural communities are also unable to practice sustainable rangeland/pasture management so as to ensure sufficient food and fodder supplies during periods of drought.

Historically, severe droughts in Somalia occurred in 1964, 1969, 1974, 1987, 1988, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2008, and in 2011, affecting 4 million of the popula-tion and killing nearly 258,000 people, half of them children. The recent drought in 2017 affected near-ly 6 million people in almost all parts of the country. Persistent drought also forces people to migrate in search of pastures, and this often leads to conflicts as competing claims are made on pastureland. Many people are forced to leave their homes and become

internally displaced. In fact, most analysts with in-sights into pastoral migration behavior suggest that the triggers for most of the localized conflicts in Somalia are droughts, although these may later take on various forms.

FloodFloods are annual phenomena with the most severe occurrence during the months of March-May and September-November in the riverine areas along the two rivers, Jubba and Shabelle. Riverine and flash floods occur in areas around the Juba and Shabelle river valleys every year between April to June and October to December. Limited infrastructure, includ-ing flood-bank retaining walls and water catchment or redirection systems, expose the communities to the effects of floods annually, often with disastrous results on smallholder farmers and rural economies.

The regions of Lower Shabelle & Middle Shabelle are most affected, with croplands, houses and infrastruc-ture like feeder roads periodically destroyed, besides affecting the livelihood of pastoralist population. The Shabelle River begins to burst over its banks at an area near the country’s border with Ethiopia, approx-imately 40 km from Beled Wayne town, the regional capital of Hiiraan. The floods starting at Burdhinle around the Beledweyne at times reach the town of Jalalaqsi, forcing the displaced population of these areas to seek refuge on higher grounds far away from their homes and farmland. Furthermore, in the Middle Shabelle region, a canal built some years ago with Chinese assistance often breaches causing flash floods, which forces local people to evacuate to towns like Jowhar. It is estimated that over 50 villages along a 100-km stretch of the middle Shabelle region are periodically affected by floods.

In the lower Shabelle, the river floods in areas like Afgooye, Mubarak and Awdheegle surrounding areas; it is estimated in this region, pastoralist liveli-hood of people in over 70 villages are affected during floods. The Jubba which enters Somalia approx-imately 70 km from the border with Ethiopia (near

75 The Gu rains begins in April and lasts until June and the Deyr season is between October or late September until November.


the town of Luuq in the Gedo Region), runs through a mountainous terrain en route to Somalia; but as it reaches near the town of Baardheere, floods do oc-cur affecting farming, animals and homes. Starting from Bardheere, which is in Gedo region up to the point where it runs into the Indian Ocean, the Jubba river causes floods over a significant area of land in-habited by a large number of people.

In Somalia, flood and consequent disasters frequent-ly occurred, particularly along the Shebelle and Juba Rivers. Floods have been the most prevalent form of natural disaster at the riverine areas along those two rivers. The recent severe floods were those in 1961, 1977, 1981, 1997, 2005, 2006, 2009, in addition to recent ones in 2018, and 2019.76 The 2006 floods have affected approximately 1million people, which triggered a massive relief operation. The increase in severity and associated socio-economic im-pacts caused by floods is due to several natural and human-made factors as described below.

There are two types of floods in Somalia, name-ly river floods and flash floods. River floods occur along the Juba and Shebelle Rivers in Southern Somalia, while flash floods are common along the intermittent streams. River floods in Somalia are a consequence of widespread heavy rainfall for days, mostly in the Ethiopian highlands. Such heavy and widespread rains induce severe and de-structive flood events. Both river and flash floods occur mainly during the rainy seasons from April to June (Gu), and from October to November (Deyr).

River and flash floods cause large number of causal-ities as well as social, economic, and environmental impacts in Somalia. The exposure to flood hazard has been increasing as the population grows and urban development into flood prone areas such as in the riverine areas in southern Somalia.

Before the civil war, flood-risk reduction structur-al measures, such as dikes, barrages, and flood relief channels were constructed. Also, irrigation channels

sometimes have the dual purpose of flood relief. However, most of those structures are in disrepair and no longer reliable. The major flood relief canals were maintained by the Somali Government depart-ments before the start of the civil war. Due to lack of maintenance, most of the river and canal systems are frequently silted; consequently, those systems do not have enough capacity to convey flood water. They have been encroached in competition for water and land resources, and consequently a number of peo-ple dwelling in flood prone areas have destroyed the relief canals.

Additional Risks – Climate ChangeAlbeit with differences in magnitude, the ensemble of projected rainfall response from global climate models for the east Africa region shows an expect-ed gradual increase in precipitation anomalies over Somalia under both best- and worst-case emissions scenarios. Mean annual rainfall in Somalia is expect-ed to increase in relation to the 1981–2000 reference period, by 1%, 3% and 4% by 2030, 2050 and 2080, re-spectively. However, the global models also indicate seasonal changes to be expected with less precipita-tion for central and southern Somalia during March to May (MAM) season by 2080. In summary, a grad-ual increase in total rainfall is expected in Somalia though with increasing seasonal variability. Extreme

76 Most of the fact quoted in the following section have been excepted from the Somali Water and Land Resources – Calling for Challenge, SWALIM, 2011.


rainfall events can be expected to increase across the different monthly periods (ICPAC, 2013).

Additional Risks – Urbanization with VulnerabilitySomalia is one of the fastest urbanizing countries in the world.77 Somalia’s urban population is estimated at around 6.45 million people, making up 45% of the national population and growing at an average rate of around 4.2 percent per annum.78 The World Bank estimates that if the current trend continues, by 2030, Somalia will add another 4.5 million urban residents to its already constrained urban environment.79

Country Strategic Approach and Institutional Arrangements for Disaster ManagementDisaster Risk Management, together with Social Protection, is considered within the key themes in the Somalia’s National Development Plan. The devel-

opment of the National Disaster Management Policy is a major step towards ensuring that disaster risk management is a collective responsibility and is in-tegrated in the development planning by all sectors in the country. This policy presents the institutional structures, roles, responsibilities and key processes required to achieve a coordinated, coherent and con-sistent management of disaster related issues.

Disaster Management PolicyIn January 2018, the Federal Government of Somalia adopted a National Disaster Management Policy which provides a legislative framework for em-bedding disaster management within appropriate structures of the government. The aim of this policy is to strengthen national capacities for effective disas-ter preparedness, response, mitigation, prevention and recovery, in order to protect lives and livelihoods, property, environment and the economy at large.

77 Discussions at the “Technical Dialogue on Urban Resilience in Somalia” (June 2018) – available at: https://www.afidep.org/what-challenges-and-concerns-does-urbanization-in-somalia-pose-afidep-and-other-regional-stakeholders-explore-solutions-at-forum/.78 UNDESA (2018). Data from the 2018 triennial review.79 World Bank (2018). Somalia Urban Resilience Project.

Source: UNDESA (2019).

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FIGURE 17: PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS

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The policy is based on guiding principles, namely:

• State responsibility: The Government bears the primary responsibility of protecting its people, infrastructure and other national as-sets from the impact of disasters;

• Clear division of roles and responsibilities between different levels of government: For effective disaster management, partnership at different levels is necessary.

• Based on local risk assessments and capacity: Disaster management is best undertaken at local levels. Capacity building is key: Disaster management is responsibility of all actors—federal, state and district governments, businesses, non-governmental and interna-tional organizations, and finally, all citizens. The government’s role in this is one of facili-tator and enabler.

• Community participation and resilience: Disaster risk management needs to be built on existing community organizations and their capacity.

• Coordination and partnership: Good disaster management is all about good coordination so as to leverage expertise, resources and capacity of multiple institutions, and it is the responsibility of the Federal Government and Member States to ensure that effective coordination mechanisms are in place.

• Neutral and non-discriminatory: All disas-ter response interventions should be neutral and non-discriminatory; hence it is incum-bent on all governments to ensure that the institutions possess the autonomy to make decisions based on the population’s needs and their capacity.

• Responsibility of government to protect: It is the duty of the government to protect its

people, and this includes all its citizens, pre-venting further displacement and dealing with those already displaced is the biggest challenge in rebuilding Somalia.

Institutional Structure for Disaster ManagementIn terms of institutional arrangements, the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) and the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM) were established. The FGS’s national development plan affirmed responsi-bility towards building and mainstreaming effective disaster preparedness and response to disasters. There is neither a flood management policy nor a public institution responsible for implementing flood-mitigation measures and management in all of Somalia. Nevertheless, there is an interagency work-ing group consist of technical and response agencies for providing for flood forecasting, preparedness and response for the Juba and Shabelle rivers led by UN-OCHA and FAO SWALIM. Other partners include FSNAU, UNICEF, WFP, UNDP and some international NGO’s. This inter-agency team is known as the Flood Working Group (FWG). In the absence of effective DRM institutions, the combination of climatic shocks such as drought and floods, compounded by con-flict, has resulted in full scale humanitarian crises. The inheritance of conflict in Somalia has weakened the capacity of government institutions to address the consequences of disasters.

Disaster Risk FinancingDisaster risk financing in Somalia is very dependent on external aid for disaster response with donors playing a significant role in financing development as well as humanitarian relief. In 2016, official devel-opment assistance (ODA) for Somalia was equivalent to 21% (1.3 billion) of Somalia’s 2016 GDP, while remittances—another key source of external financ-ing, were estimated at $1.4 billion in 2016 (23% of GDP) and foreign direct investment flows were equiv-alent to 12% of GDP. Domestic resource mobilization is very limited, with government revenues amount-ing to only 2% of GDP in 2016.80

80 Somalia DINA Report volume 1 2018.


Overview of Present Disaster Management Partnerships and ProgramsThe flood information management system, devel-oped through a Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) project, provides informa-tion to the Somali interagency group. The system includes hydrological and meteorological observa-tions, transmission of data to the flood forecasting center in Nairobi, data processing and formulating flood forecasting to users via email in the form of bulletins, on the website, and through radio broad-casting using local language. However, this flood forecasting system lacks data from the upper catch-ment in Ethiopia due to absence of data-sharing protocol among Somalia and Ethiopia. Also, risk communication and last-mile early warning for vul-nerable communities need to be enhanced. Within the flood-prone basin, there are a total of seven gauges(i.e. 3 around Shabelle River and 4 along in Jubba River). The meteorological system is not well developed with only seasonal forecast.

In 2019, FGS and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) launched a new $10 million climate ad-aptation project to help rural communities secure access to diminishing water supplies. More than 360,000 farmers and pastoralists are set to bene-fit from sustainable water management, expanded drought and flood early-warning systems, and more profitable livelihoods. Led by Somalia’s Directorate of Environment and Climate Change, Office of the Prime Minister, and implemented by the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, with $8.8 million from the Global Environment Facility’s Least Developed Countries Fund and $1.5 million from the UNDP, the new four-year project will establish Somalia’s first National Hydro-Meteorological and Monitoring Service, install automatic weather stations and monitoring equipment across the country and expand Somalia’s existing flood and drought fore-casting and early warning tool (FRISC-DIGNIIN). The project will also work closely with villages to provide training on flood management and water conservation, as well as teaching pastoralists and small-scale farmers, including both men and wom-en, to sustainably produce farming and livestock products.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on Disaster Risk Management SectorSectoral Impact AssessmentThe back-to-back effects of drought and flooding disasters have had a devastating impact on com-munities’ capacity to cope and bounce back. In the absence of effective DRM institutions, the combina-tion of climatic shocks such as drought and floods, compounded by conflict, has resulted in full-scale humanitarian crises. The current humanitarian sit-uation in Somalia continues to deteriorate and therefore crucial funding is needed to avert a larg-er scale humanitarian crisis. The moisture conditions, if adequately managed, are conducive for certain types of agricultural activities and could benefit the country. The Response Plan has outlined the priori-tized response activities and seeks support to meet the urgent needs of the affected population.

The heavy Gu season rains resulted in the drastic in-crease of water levels in the Shabelle and Juba River basins, leading to severe flash and river flooding across central and southern Somalia with Bay (South West State), Gedo (Jubaland), Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions being the worst affected.

Damages and LossesThe main direct damages reported were damag-es to river embankments at $4.9 million, followed by hazard monitoring equipment (e.g. water gauges) estimated at $0.1 million; damages to forecasting equipment estimated at $0.02 million; damages to relief goods warehouses and stored re-lief goods (e.g. food, shelter materials) estimated at $1 million. In total, the damage has been estimated at $6.1 million. It should be noted that this num-ber does not include damage of irrigation channels which often have multiple purposes, including floor relieving, as estimation efforts are conducted by several entities.

The greatest impact of the floods in the DRM sector has been on the additional costs for coordination of emergency response and provision of relief goods; the loss incurred is estimated at $8.0 million in the Hirshabelle, Southwest and Jubaland regions.


Extra costs associated with sourcing weather related information due to forecasting equipment damage is estimated at $0.03 million. Unplanned expenses for mobile response teams, fire trucks etc., is estimated at $0.3 million; and extra costs for temporary flood protection is estimated at $0.8 million. In total, the monetary losses for all three regions are estimated at $9.0 million.

Recovery Needs and Strategy for Disaster Risk Management SectorDisaster Risk Management and Flood Risk Management Sectoral Early Recovery NeedsSince DRM is a cross-cutting issue, in addition to the above sectoral early recovery interventions, the DRM sector also performs the additional function of coordination with other sectors to integrate DRM into their strategies for ensuring resilient recovery. Therefore, the main goal of the assessment was to ensure that sectoral recovery investments are pro-tected from future flood risk. The estimated total

early recovery needs for DRM and flood risk man-agement were approximately US$41.8 million. In the short term 15% of the early recovery financial needs were required for immediate recovery, while 85% of financial needs were required in the medium-term period. The early recovery needs for the DRM and Flood Risk Management sector are detailed below. Those early recovery needs include interim cost for flood risk management for long term resilience based on proposed interventions by the Federal Government of Somalia. To identify total needs for flood risk management, further identification efforts will be required through additional survey/studies, and dialogue/consultations with key players includ-ing international organizations.

Displacement

SummaryFlood conditions in October and November 2019 compounded pronounced development def-icits and humanitarian challenges in Somalia,

Damage Losses Total Effect

Estimation of Damage to Infrastructure and Physical Assets

Hydrological stations (e.g. river gauge) 134,400 134,400

Meteorological stations (e.g. weather station) 18,000 18,000

Other Hydromet facilities

Relief goods warehouses, stored relief goods; e.g. food, shelter materials etc

1,000,000 1,000,000

River/irrigation channel with significantly reduced discharge capacity due to sedimentation associated with flood event

River Channel damaged 4,928,000 4,928,000

Disruption of Governance and social processes

Extra costs associated with sourcing weather related information due to forecasting equipment damaged

25,000 25,000

Additional costs for coordination of emergency response and provision of relief goods

8,000,000 8,000,000

Unplanned expenses for mobile response teams, fire trucks etc 250,000 250,000

Increased risks and vulnerabilities

Extra costs for temporary flood protection 750,000 750,000

Total $ 6,080,400 $ 9,025,000 $ 15,105,400

TABLE 32: DISTRIBUTION OF DRM & FRM SECTOR DAMAGES AND LOSSES


Recovery Needs Short term Medium term Long term Total

Provision of more flood monitoring equipment along Shabelle and Juba rivers

134,400 134,400 268,800

Replacement and maintenance of basic weather forecasting equipment (weather stations)

72,000 72,000

Development of Emergency contingency plans for floods 105,000 105,000

Improve human and technical capacity in DRM institutions (MoHADM)

200,000 200,000

Improve the response capacity at district level 8,700,000 8,700,000

Procure office equipment for DRM departments at affected states level

300,000 300,000

Establish 10 CBDRR Committees in 10 districts along the rivers

100,000 100,000

River embarkment and repairs for breakages in Shabelle and Juba rivers

4,928,000 4,928,000

Restocking the emergency supplies and logistics that has been given out and spent during response time

480,000 480,000

Evacuation costs incurred during emergency 145,000 145,000

Restocking temporary flood protection tools (Empty sacks)

2,370,000 2,370,000

National Level

National strategy for Flood and Drought Management 200,000 200,000

Flood Risk Management Plan for Juba and Shebelle Rivers 400,000 400,000

Enhancement of urban planning and land use regulation 200,000 200,000

Beledwayne Interventions —

Pre/feasibility Study for Beledwayne Long Term FRM interventions

2,000,000 2,000,000

River Channel Improvement to recover flood discharge capacity

7,425,000 7,425,000

Flood Relief Canal 3,865,500 3,865,500

Rehabilitation of Waraabaale Canal 1,215,000 1,215,000

Upstream barrage/retention facilities (instead of reservoir) 7,500,000 75,000,000 82,500,000

Operational Maintenance plan for Water Management Infra.

100,000 100,000

Improvement of flood early warning dissemination 504,000 504,000

Community Engagement for Flood Risk Management 200,000 200,000

Enabling environment —

Capacity Development of Federal and States government for Integrated Flood Risk Management

500,000 500,000

Policy dialogue with Ethiopia for Flood and Drought Risk Management

200,000 200,000

Total Recovery Needs $6,401,400 $35,576,900 $75,000,000 $116,978,300

TABLE 33: DISTRIBUTION OF DRM & FRM SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS


including rates of acute and protracted dis-placement. Flash flooding in riverine areas in 2019 contributed to the displacement of over 370,000 peo-ple, particularly in middle and lower Juba, Bay and middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. In Beletweyn district alone, 273,000 people or 45,500 households fled their homes as of November 2019 (OCHA 6 November 2019) have fled their homes. While tem-porary, these displacements highlight the increasing vulnerability of Somali populations to climate-relat-ed events, including recurring droughts and floods, and to continued exposure to armed conflict/inse-curity and other shocks. Populations displaced by flooding are further comprised in part of the pre-existing caseload of 2.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), who account for over 17 percent of the total population (OCHA 2018).

Flooding is estimated to have resulted in at least $25,000,000 in damages and losses in formal IDP settlements. This figure aggregates key losses in terms of damaged housing and shelter—including across 154 IDP sites—affected water resources and provision of health services. Detailed analysis of the respective damages and losses, including assump-tions and methodologies employed, and recovery needs for these specific resources are addressed in the associated sectoral chapters. In addition to these considerations, displacement related needs extend-ing from the flood include protection concerns emerging in the context of the crisis, particular-ly as related to child protection needs, incidence of gender-based violence and other facets of marginal-ization and exploitation.

Pre-Flood Context and Baseline for Displacement SectorThe displacement situation is Somalia is large scale and complex, with an estimated 2.6 mil-lion people confronting new and protracted displacement due to a range of factors, includ-ing as conflict and violence, food insecurity and climate-related disasters such as drought and flooding. The 2016/2017 drought combined with increasing incidence of conflict rapidly accelerat-ed rates of internal displacement in Somalia and contributed to the forced migration of 1.5 million

people. Somalia also hosts nearly 42,000 refugees and asylum seekers, as well as 108,000 Somali re-turnees, primarily from Kenya and Yemen (HRP 2020). Outside Somalia, over 750,000 Somalis reside as refugees in other countries, including in particu-lar Kenya, Yemen and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2020). Taken together, these displacements constitute massive humanitarian and developmental challenges for Somalia.

While the immediate causes of most displace-ments in Somalia are recurrent and persistent climatic disaster, food insecurity and violent conflict, the underlying drivers are multiple and interrelated. They stem from decades of internal multi-layered conflict, insecurity, political uncertain-ty, land expropriations, human rights violations and governance failures. These factors are compound-ed by cyclical environmental challenges, including periods of acute drought and famine, and floods. Recurring climate hazards and conflict-related events have eroded livelihood options and household resil-ience, undermining the ability of already vulnerable populations to respond to shocks.

Addressing the needs of displacement affect-ed populations—including IDPs, returnees and the caseload of refugees seeking asylum with-in Somalia—is a significant challenge that requires both humanitarian and development approaches, particularly in light of existing development deficits and vulnerabilities in host communities. Displaced populations in Somalia are consistently more vul-nerable and have a lower standard of living than host communities, though all face poverty and de-privation. The Somalia Poverty and vulnerability assessment highlights that 68 percent of Somalis live in poverty; by comparison, three out of every four IDPs (74 percent) live below the poverty line (World Bank 2019). Food insecurity remains persis-tently high among IDPs; according to the recent FSNAU assessments, most IDP settlements are cur-rently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and given entrenched poverty among IDPs and their limited access to livelihood options, their food security sit-uation is unlikely to improve significantly over the next 6 months (FSNAU 2019).


Other development indicators, while very poor for Somalia as a whole, are even worse for IDPs. IDPs confront serious constraints in access to ba-sic services, including access to improve water and sanitation, as well as access to essential servic-es including health, education and markets basic services, which impede overarching resilience to varying shocks. The Poverty and vulnerability Assessment found that IDPs of school going age (6–17 years) are less likely to attend school than urban residents and adult IDPs are less likely to be able to read and write than Somalis in urban host commu-nities (52 percent of IDPs are literate as compared with 73 percent of urban residents). Illiteracy rates for are even higher for displaced women and girls. IDPs also have less access to health services than urban residents (World Bank 2019).

Displacement in Somalia is an urban phenom-enon, with IDPs, refugees, asylum seekers and returnees, settling predominantly in urban and peri-urban areas. Somalia is one of the fastest ur-banizing countries in the world, with a population growing at 4.2 percent per year (HRP 2020). The influx of displaced to urban areas has contributed substan-tially to the unplanned and spontaneous growth of urban centers and reinforces earlier patterns of vul-nerability and deprivation, compounding pressure

on services, land, and other resources. Assessment indicate that most IDPs do not intend to return to communities of origin and or prefer local integration (Durable Solutions Initiative, 2019; World Bank 2019). Displaced populations are therefore significant con-tributors to rapid urbanization trends and, in the absence of coordinated planning and urban man-agement, have the potential to entrench dimensions of poverty, vulnerability and exclusion even further.

Housing, land and property is an ongoing chal-lenge for IDPs in Somalia. IDP’s lack access to secure or affordable housing and do not have secure land tenure, which leaves them vulnerable to evic-tions, marginalization and exclusion and drives IDPs to the margins of urban areas. These issues have pre-viously been exacerbated by the absence of up to date legal and legislative processes and the fact that IDPs have not been considered in urban develop-ment policy and planning. More recently, there have been promising policy developments to improve protections for displacement affected communities, including adoption in 2019 of a National Policy for Refugees, Returnees and IDPs and National Action Plan on Durable Solutions, as well as the drafting of National Eviction Guidelines, which lay out the conditions, safeguards and processes for legal evic-tions.81 Despite recent progress, however, forced evictions remain a persistent challenge confronting displaced communities. In 2019, over 220,000 IDPs were evicted between January and October 2019, of which 139,000 were evicted in Mogadishu alone (HNO 2020). On average, more than 155,000 people have been evicted across Somalia every year since 2015 with many having been subjected to multiple evictions (HNO 2020).

Displacement frequently creates or deepens so-cial exclusion. Poverty and deprivation caused by loss of assets and livelihoods are sustained and re-inforced by political, social and cultural processes. Forced displacement predominantly affects groups that are already socially and politically marginal-ized. Minority clan status, gender, disability and the

81 https://www.refworld.org/docid/5d8333ae4.html.

https://www.refworld.org/docid/5d8333ae4.html


dislocation from clanship and patronage networks contributes to entrenched marginalization and wid-er experiences of exclusion, which ultimately render IDPs more vulnerable, less able to restore viable live-lihoods and living conditions, and less in a position to integrate with the society of the host communi-ty. Analysis of previous drought events indicates that marginalized groups face further discrimination and exclusion from social support structures, as well as services and assistance provided by humanitarian agencies (HNO 2020). Displaced women and chil-dren are among the most vulnerable and confront multiple constraints including lack of access to ad-equate shelter, limited economic opportunities and lack of control over critical resources.

Displaced women, children and people with dis-abilities, are further vulnerable to significant protection challenges, including sexual exploi-tation and abuse and other forms of gender-based violence due to limited security in the IDP set-tlements, poor living conditions and limited clan protection. According to data collected through the Gender-Based violence Information Management System (GBvIMS), out of the total number of report-ed incidents from January to September 2019, rape and sexual assault accounted for nearly 30 percent of cases reported. Additional protection risks for chil-dren include family separation and child recruitment, arbitrary arrest, early marriage, drop out from or lack of access to education, hazardous child labor, and el-evated exposure to forms of GBv including assault, trafficking, and psychosocial distress. Female and child IDPs are frequently most at risk, with incidence linked to poverty, congestion and poor security conditions in camps, as well as extended distances between food resources, water and sanitation facili-ties in settlements.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States (FMS) have a central role to play in leading this process. The Government

has committed to the development of compre-hensive approaches to addressing displacement in Somalia and has made considerable progress, partic-ularly since 2016. Key efforts to strengthen the policy and legal framework on durable solutions include the development of the National Policy for Refugee Returns and Internally Displaced Persons and the National Action Plan on Durable Solutions,82 devel-oped in alignment with the 9th National Development Plan and the Recovery and Resilience Framework, both which highlight the centrality of addressing the needs displacement-affected populations, and reflect the broader, ongoing evolution of the issue from a humanitarian priority to a government-led development responsibility. The government has further ratified the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons (Kampala Convention), a critical treaty en-suring protections of internally displaced on the continent (HRP 2020). To improve intergovernmental leadership and coordination, the FGS has established a national Durable Solutions Secretariat comprised of 14 government institutions, while at the regional level, Durable Solutions Units have been established in key municipalities in Benadir and South West State.

Post-Flood Context and Impact on Displacement SectorFlooding was the primary driver of displacement in Somalia between October and December, 2019, impacting 370,000 people between October and November and nearly 410,000 from October through December (PRMN 2020).83 Conflict further displaced an additional 32,000 people, while drought and other causes displaced 26,000 people during the October to December period. In Beletweyn dis-trict alone, 273,000 people were displaced by early November (OCHA November 2019). UNHCR’s PRMN further estimates flood-related displacements in Middle Shabelle (20,308), Bay (7,643), Middle Juba (3,227), Banadir (2,923) and in Bakool region (678).

82 For a complete list of legal and policy instruments relevant for the advancement of durable solutions, see pp17–18 of https://regionaldss.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/FINAL-SA.pdf.83 These numbers reflect estimated movements as calculated by UNHCR’s Protection and Return Monitoring Network. These numbers may not fully align with other data sources, however, and other assessments of displacement-affected households. To the extent feasible, this assessment attempts to account for differences in varying datasets.

https://regionaldss.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/FINAL-SA.pdf

https://regionaldss.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/FINAL-SA.pdf


Gender and age disaggregation does not appear to be available. Importantly, displacements related to floods were acute and temporary in orientation, resulting from the impact of flooding on shelters, safety, access to food, water and other key resourc-es. Displaced populations impacted by floods have since returned to previous communities or IDP set-tlements, thereby minimizing impact on the overall displacement figures in Somalia. These populations still require significant assistance, however, in order to rebuild homes, restore livelihoods and enable ac-cess to basic services in order to ensure household resilience and stability.

Heavy rains and flooding contributed to dam-aged infrastructure, including shelter and latrine damage affecting an estimated 154 IDP sites.84 An assessment of affected sites in Beletweyn using re-mote sensing techniques, for example, indicates that roughly 37 percent of shelters were damaged during the flood (FINA Shelter Assessment). In Baidoa, IOM estimated that between October and November 2019, 93 IDP sites out of 435 were damaged by flash flooding, impacting 10,780 households. This amounts to damages of roughly 22 percent of IDP sites in the area (Interview with CCCM Cluster Coordinator, 28 January 2020). Heavy flooding destroyed latrines in many areas, worsening already poor access to sanitation facilities. In Benadir region, local reports indicated the destruction of 170 shelters and 210 la-trines in Khada district, and destruction of latrines in over 20 IDPs settlements (OCHA October 2019). Reports also raised concerns around leakage of dam-aged latrines into flood waters, increasing concerns of water contamination and increases in disease out-breaks such as AWD/cholera (OCHA October 2019).

Flooding is estimated to have resulted in at least $25,000,000 in damages and losses in formal IDP settlements. This figure aggregates key losses in terms of damaged housing and shelter—including across 154 IDP sites—affected water resources and provision of health services. Detailed analysis of the re-spective damages and losses, including assumptions

and methodologies employed, and identified recov-ery needs for these specific resources are addressed in the associated sectoral chapters.

The impact of flooding on food insecurity and malnutrition among IDP populations will be substantial in the immediate term. According to recent FSNAU assessments, most of the main IDP settlements are currently classified at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels. Given the level of destitution among IDPs and their limited live-lihood options, the food security situation of IDPs is unlikely to improve in the immediate term (by June 2020) and may worsen as food consumption gaps emerge (FSNAU 2020). Heavy rains and flooding dis-rupted already fragile IDP livelihoods and household reserves, necessitating immediate humanitarian as-sistance, including food distributions and cash/vouchers, to prevent deterioration in food securi-ty conditions. While humanitarian assistance likely prevented further worsening of food security and humanitarian needs, assessments from FSNAU in-dicate that areas affected by flooding in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, including key IDPs sites, may con-front serious food consumption gaps over the next six months and food security levels will likely deterio-rate. For example, while urban Beletweyn is currently classified as Stressed (IPC level 2), food security will potentially deteriorate to Crisis (IPC level 3) level by June 2020 (FSNAU 2019).

Vulnerability and exposure to protection chal-lenges, such as violence, exploitation and assault, often worsen in the context of conflict and natural disasters, including droughts and flooding. During the 2016/2017 drought, incidence of GBv increased 9 percent between January and April 2017, including cases of physical and sexual as-sault, as well as child sexual abuse (GBvIMS 2017). Of these cases, over three-quarters of survivors are IDPs. An initial assessment conducted by UNFPA and implementing partners in flood-affected areas highlight that damages and access challenges to health facilities and GBv one-stop centers as a result

84 Estimates as calculated in the Shelter Sector Assessment in this report.


of flooding has impeded support for vulnerable women and girls, including pregnant women and survivors of gender-based violence. The assessment identified over 17,000 pregnant women impact-ed by flood-related damages to health facilities, and 20,000 women and girls who face increased exposure to GBv extending from flood-related displacement and the attendant separation from traditional fam-ily and community protection mechanisms. While concrete incidence data is not yet available for the period from October to November 2019, the assess-ment confirms the broader likelihood for violations extending from recurrent floods, as well as from drought and protracted conflict and armed violence (UNFPA 2019).

Recovery Needs and Strategy for the SectorResponding to the needs of displaced pop-ulations impacted by the floods is critical for recovery in the immediate term and for the lon-ger-term stability and development of durable solutions in Somalia. Flood recovery program-ming should intersect with and support ongoing ef-forts for durable solutions for displaced populations, asylees, refugee returns and affected communities. The persistent needs of displaced populations, com-bined with challenges confronting existing rates of displacement, return and wider poverty and vul-nerability, highlight the need to move beyond care and maintenance to a holistic, longer-term ap-proach advancing self-reliance, resilience and socio-economic integration through partnerships with government, humanitarian and development ac-tors at all levels.

Any recovery strategies to flood-related displacement challenges should further seek to build on existing initiatives to address displacement, including ongo-ing policy dialogue and analysis under the Somalia Solutions Unit of the Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat (REDSS) and Durable Solutions Initiative, and should align with humanitarian priorities artic-ulated under the 2020 Humanitarian Response Plan. Efforts should further build on activities and lessons learned from relevant durable solutions consortia comprised of government, UN and humanitarian

partners, including the EU RE-INTEG, the Danwadaag Solutions Consortia and the xalka Waara Durable Solutions Programme.

While sector-specific recovery needs for IDPs have been articulated for housing and shelter, water and health, the response and recovery strategy for displacement-affected populations should advance multi-sectoral/stakeholder response in affected ar-eas to improve safety, self-reliance, resilience and socio-economic integration of respective vulnera-ble populations, while also looking to strengthen and sustain a whole of government approach at national and regional levels to lead promote dura-ble solutions to displacement-related challenges. At the same time, medium- to longer-term recovery interventions should also explore opportunities to strengthen livelihood and resilience mechanisms in rural communities to foster an enabling environment for sustainable return.

Recovery interventions should include efforts to:

• Address key data gaps: It is critical to en-able improved government efforts for data collection and analysis to under-stand better the profile and perspective of displacement-affected populations to in-form resilience and recovery programming. This includes building capacity of with gov-ernment partners, in particular the Durable Solutions Secretariat and relevant gov-ernment ministries, to address persistent information and analytical gaps linked to gender, age, skills and opportunities in both urban and rural environments.

Damages Losses Total Effect

IDP Shelter Replacement Cost

9,019,500 9,019,500

IDP Health Losses 1,313,805 1,313,805

IDP Water Losses 14,662,958 14,662,958

Total 9,019,500 15,976,763 24,996,263

TABLE 34: DISPLACEMENT SECTOR SUMMARY OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES


• Strengthen government leadership and accountability, as well as wider pub-lic participation: Recovery interventions should aim to support government institu-tions at local and central levels to advance solutions and respond to displacement challenges in Somalia. Recovery interven-tions should align with existing efforts to build institutional capacity to lead devel-opment responses to displacement and to support government-led policy dialogue. This includes strengthening the coordina-tion and monitoring capacity of the Durable Solutions Secretariat at the federal level, while also strengthening interlinkages with Durable Solutions Units or relevant des-ignated offices at regional and municipal levels. Interventions should further support establishment or finalization of relevant le-gal frameworks and instruments that enable durable solutions for displacement-affected populations. This further includes spport for local authorities to respond displacement and reintegration challenges in rural/remote communities, to be more accountable and transparent, and better able to respond to the various local level needs of the returning and host populations.

• Improve infrastructure and service deliv-ery: The focus will be to ensure infrastructure and services are developed as part of sound urban planning and development process-es lead by central and local authorities, to address service provision needs. Detailed delineation of urban infrastructure invest-ments to respond to displacement-related challenges and to enable wider resilience and recovery—including housing and shel-ter, water and sanitation, as well as health access—are outlined in the respective sec-tor assessments. Additional support is needed as well to support regional and district-level spatial planning processes to ensure displaced populations are integrated into future plans for infrastructure develop-ment and service delivery, and to ensure

implementation of sounds practices for in-clusive urban planning, land management, governance and local financing mecha-nisms/revenue collection.

• Strengthen protection and social co-hesion: Attention should be directed to addressing particular protection challenges and vulnerabilities of IDPs and host commu-nities, including reunification/protection of unaccompanied children, disabled popula-tions, widows, the elderly and support for survivors of GBv. Specific targeting should focus not only on the displaced but also host communities to support and sustain community cohesion. Interventions should further aim to promote cohesion through community-based participatory processes. Enabling improved delivery of response ser-vices for survivors of GBv and creation of or sustained support for safe spaces for wom-en and children are among the key priorities.

• Promote livelihood opportunities: In both flood-affected communities in urban areas, as well as in rural areas targeted for sustainable return, recovery interventions should focus on improving the employ-ability of displaced populations through skills and vocational training, putting in place pro-employment policies, support-ing an enabling business environment, providing public works schemes, as well as supporting the rejuvenation of small indus-trial sector. Creating new jobs and addressing unemployment would not only contribute to generate incomes for the displaced popu-lations, as well as host communities it would also be critical for stimulating local econom-ic development and providing youth with alternatives to violence.

• Strengthen opportunities for improved consultation, participation and wider civ-ic engagement: Recovery initiatives should enable engagement of displacement-affect-ed populations in participatory systems to


ensure their voice and interests are includ-ed and represented in local decision-making bodies and dispute resolution mechanisms.

• Assessment of conditions for return through area-based analysis: Recovery activities aimed to promote return will only be feasible if there are viable conditions for families to (re)settle safely in areas of origin/return. Central to this consideration is the need to conduct sufficient analysis and data collection at the places of return/origin about security, access to basic services and liveli-hood, etc. to make informed decision about the sustainability and safety of the return and to develop an operational framework that provides guidance on how return and reset-tlement should take place in a safe, dignified

and voluntary manner. Continuation col-lection and analysis of population profile data both of returning populations and communities of return are necessary to ensure appropriate targeting and inform effective and appropriate programming.

• Support social cohesion across displace-ment affected communities, including returnee populations and host communi-ties/those who stayed: It will be important to establish mechanisms for managing tensions that are likely to emerge from re-integration/return processes, including through communications and sensitization process, as well as management of land and property disputes, whether through tradi-tional or formal justice structures.


Region Intervention

Timeframe

Responsibility for implementation Cost (USD)

Short-term (1 year)

Medium-term (2 years)

Long-term (+3 years)

Urban and Peri-Urban Areas

Collection of sex and age dissaggregated profile data of displaced and returning populations, including capacity building for government partners on data collection and analysis

1,500,000 500,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

2,000,000

Costs for increased coordination and capacity needs of Durable Solutions Secretariat (FGS) and regional DS entities

1,500,000 1,000,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

2,500,000

Monitoring costs (social cohesion, displacement movements, etc)

500,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

500,000

Strengthen/support GBv response and service provision for survivors and provide targeted support to improve access to basic health, legal and psycho-social support services


partners

3,000,000

Strengthen/support child protection services to address protection considerations for affected children


partners

TABLE 35: DISTRIBUTION OF DISPLACEMENT SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS



Region Intervention

Timeframe


Short-term (1 year)



Support district-level spatial planning processes


partners

2,000,000

Support community-based participatory planning processes


partners

2,000,000

Support for the participation in civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence in displacement affected areas.

500,000 500,000 Governent with Donors/UN and

partners

1,000,000

Skills development

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

3,000,000

Promoting land tenure security through improved policies and frameworks, including improved land use planning


partners

500,000

Rural and remote areas

Assessment of conditions for safe return through area-based solutions analysis


partners

500,000

Collection of sex and age dissaggregated profile data of displaced and returning populations profile data in remote/rural areas

1,000,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

1,000,000

TABLE 35: DISTRIBUTION OF DISPLACEMENT SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS (continued)



Region Intervention

Timeframe


Short-term (1 year)



Skills development and livelihoods restoration

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Government with Donors/UN and

partners

3,000,000

Support for market access and strengthened value chains for partial returns (including those with family member remaining in urban areas)

500,000 500,000Government with Donors/UN and

partners1,000,000

Support the establishment and strengthening of local authorities

1,000,000Government with Donors/UN and

partners1,000,000

Communication and sensitization to support re/integration of IDPs and to enable participation in civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence.


partners1,000,000

Establish/strengthen transparent dispute resolution mechanism to manage land disputes


partners1,000,000

Total 25,000,000

TABLE 35: DISTRIBUTION OF DISPLACEMENT SECTOR RECOVERY NEEDS (continued)


6. THE WAY FORWARD: FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LONG TERM RESILIENCE

Echoing strong will of FGS to realize long term resil-ience against recurrent devastating flood disasters, this chapter focused on flood risk management. It should be noted that overall direction of proposed interventions has been already consulted with FGS, and details will be finalized through formulation of new project.

Key Lessons Learnt in Flood Risk Management from Recent DisastersThe key lessons learnt from the relative successes and weaknesses of flood risk management revealed through the event of major recent disasters, includ-ing the flood disasters in 2019 are as follows:

• Need for National Policy for Flood Risk Management – Although policy and insti-tutional framework for broader disaster risk management have been significantly en-hanced in recent years, there is no flood risk management policy document to address

long term resilience against flood disasters. A national action plan dedicated to flood risk management, in consistent with both disaster risk management and water re-sources management policies/strategies, is required to manage flood risk in an integrat-ed and holistic manner.

• Need for Flood Risk Management Masterplan for Major Rivers – River basin approach is re-quired to achieve balance between up-stream-downstream, as well as urban and rural areas. Due consideration is required for water resources management and drought related issues. Critical data for such plan-ning is lacked therefore need to be collect-ed, through field survey if necessary.

• Need for Active Community Engagement in Flood Risk Management – Although Flood Early Warning has been developed and


issues Flood Bulletins by a SWALIM project, engagement of community in flood risk management need to be enhanced.

• Need for Quality and Resilient Infrastructure Investment – In the case of Middle Shabelle, the Duduble or Chinese canal and the Jowhar Off-stream Storage Reservoir (JOSR) and most of the primary canals along the Shabelle were developed to divert water from the river during periods of high flow. However, most of the canal systems are fre-quently silted up conveying excess water at reduced capacity. This is due to combi-nation of lack of regular maintenance, and limited consideration of sedimentation in all phased including planning and design of water management infrastructures.

• Need for Assessing Climate Changes affecting Flood Risk – Flood in 2019 was much sever-er than flood in 2018, which was recognized as worst floods in the last 60 years. It is im-portant to assess contributing factors which affects flood risk. Those factors may include climate change, urbanization and land use change, as well as lack of expected features of water management infrastructures.

• Need for Enhancement of Urban Planning and Land Use Regulation – Uncontrolled urban de-velopment and encroachment in flood prone areas, often by vulnerable groups associate with poverty, have significantly increased flood risk especially in rapidly developing city like Beledwayne. It is important to introduce flood risk conscious urban plan and land use regulation, starting from one/two pilot city as pilot, then expanding to the country.

• Need for Institutional Capacity Development – While roles and responsibilities of govern-ment entities for flood risk management will be identifies through the above flood risk management strategy, development of insti-tutional capacity is crucial for sustainable and effective implementation of the strategy.

Proposed Flood Risk Management Framework and Action Plan for long term resilienceThe Underpinning Flood Risk Management Strategy (moving from Risk to Resilience)

• vulnerability to natural hazards is a prod-uct of physical exposure to hazards and community capacity to cope with and recover from these impacts. Accordingly, self-sustaining community resilience can only be built through a long-term disaster management program that reduces ex-posure to climate risks and/or enhances coping ability. Simultaneously, coping can be enhanced by strategies that promote rapid recovery from disasters through the introduction of financial instruments such as micro-loans and insurance. In all con-texts, an effective response is contingent on the nature and capacity of the institutions that will underpin the shift from risk to re-silience.

Pillar 1: Risk Assessment and Planning• A lot of work on assessing disaster risks, par-

ticularly on recurrent floods and droughts, has been conducted. A series of studies were carried out in the 2000s in cooperation with SWALIM. These studies consisting of a number of detailed studies spanning sever-al volumes of reports. Those studies include technical reports on Disaster Management Plan for the Juba and Shabelle Basins, Flood Risk and Response Management, Hydraulic Behaviour of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, just name a few. However, there is challenge in collection of data of Juba and Shabelle upper catchments due to lack of data shar-ing protocol with Ethiopia. Also, many of river and irrigation channels have been silt-ed up due to sedimentation as well as lack of maintenance. The floods in 2018 and 2019 were most devastating floods in the country. Further analysis is required to up-date risk assessment of those rivers.


• National Strategy for Flood and Drought Risk Management – Flood and drought are most frequent disasters in Somalia, and both are interlinked through hydrological cycle. In consistently with National Disaster Risk Management Strategy and National Water Resources Management Strategy, Flood and Drought Risk Management Action Program will be formulated through consultation with government entities, humanitarian agencies, NGOs, and international organizations.

• Flood Risk Management Masterplan – Based on the existing literature and studies, flood risk management masterplan for Juba and Shebelle Rivers will be formulated. The Masterplan will be guiding document for FGS to consider flood risk management interventions, and address risk reduc-tion investments including structural and non-structural measure such as hazard map-ping and land use planning, preparedness for emergency response, resilient recovery, as well as needs for capacity development. Roles and responsibilities of government entities as well as NGOs, and other stake-holders will be clearly identified.

Pillar 2: Urgent Interventions for Flood Risk Reduction of Beledwayne

• Beledwayne, upperstream of Shebelle River, was devastatingly affected by the flood in 2019. Flood risk reduction for the Beldwayne is recognized as the priority for FGS. Therefore, it is urgently required to im-plement flood risk reduction interventions, structural and non-structural measures for Beledweyne. FGS has already started con-sideration of specific interventions and requested technical support from the World Bank. Flood discharge allocation to river/irrigation channels and upstream at-tenuation works, securing water supply for irrigation and domestic waters, sedimen-tation control, sustainable urban planning and land use regulation, shall be well con-sidered. Those interventions need to be

consistent with flood risk management masterplan of Shabelle River. Interventions for Beledwayne will be implemented as the national pilot for flood risk management, and lessons learned during implementa-tion will be shared with other parts of the country for capacity development. The following structural and non-structural interventions are proposed under this component:

• Community Engagement in Flood Risk Management – Although Flood Warning System has been installed by SWALIM while ago, there is a need to further enhance com-munity engagement. Communities in flood prone areas will be engaged for prepared-ness for emergency response. Sensitization, flood hazard mapping exercise, and evacua-tion drill will be implemented in cooperation with NGOs and other partners is to raise awareness for flood risk and actions to be taken during flood events.

• Flood Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping – Building upon previous efforts, analysis for flood risk assessment for Juba and Shebelle Rivers will be conducted. This will include identification of inundation areas using sat-ellite data and locally obtained information, updating rainfall analysis, and hydrological and hydraulic analysis to identify flood risk of major cities along the rivers. Also, flood risk mapping exercise will be conducted through consultation with stakeholders including communities vulnerable to flood events.

• Urban and Land Use Regulation – Urban planning and land use regulation are key to reduce exposure and vulnerability to flood hazard in urban areas. Using flood risk map to be produced, urban plan for most vul-nerable areas to reduce flood risk will be planned and implemented. Hands-on train-ing for relevant government entities will be conducted though sharing experience and knowledge from other countries.


• Water Management Infrastructures – Water Management Structures have to be im-proved to reduce flood risk of Beledwayne. Insufficient discharge capacity of river/ir-rigation channels associated with huge sedimentation and lack of maintenance need to be improved. This requires a holistic study in collaboration with internal/external experts. Also, attenuation facilities in upper stream of Shebelle river is also to be con-sidered. Maintenance aspects need to be considered at planning and design stages of water management infrastructures, in addi-tion to O&M phase.

• Operational Maintenance Plan – According to experiences in Somalia, maintenance of water management infrastructures is very important to secure long-lasting effects of the infrastructures. Institutional, financial, and technical aspects shall be well consid-ered to establish realistic maintenance plan. Maintenance aspects need to be considered in planning and design of the infrastructures so that smooth transition from construction to O&M.

Pillar 3: Institutional Capacity Building• The country’s capacity to manage flood risk

at different levels of government needs im-provement. Flood risk reduction has to be made part of the investment programs of line Ministries/Agencies. This process has to be driven by the Ministry of Humanitarian Af-fairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM)

being the apex agency in leading the disas-ter risk management efforts in the country. The role of MoHADM is crucial in emergen-cy planning and disaster management. Also, The Ministry of Energy and Water Re-sources and the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation have important roles in flood risk management in the areas of risk assessment, planning, and risk reduction interventions. Capacity development program for flood risk management will be jointly implement by those Ministries, and engage local govern-ments and stakeholders using Beledwayne interventions as the pilot case for flood risk management.

Pillar 4: Regional Cooperation and Technical Dialogue

• As stated, lack of historical and real time hydrological and meteorological date of upper catchment is one of challenges for planning of effective interventions and timely response for flood events. Regional cooperation for technical dialogue will be facilitated through joint training and tech-nical dialogue among DRM and Water Ministries of Somalia and Ethiopia.Such technical dialogue is expected to support policy dialogue for flood and drought risk management, initially focusing on human-itarian and crisis aspects. If conditions met, making agreement on data sharing proto-col is a significant step. Then, possibility of joint management and planning of Shebelle Rivers might be sought.


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