2018 investment symposium - soa · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 investment symposium . session 2a:...

33
2018 Investment Symposium Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool Moderator: Warren Manners, FSA, MAAA Presenters: David Gibbs Agha Mizra SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

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Page 1: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

2018 Investment Symposium Session 2A Understanding US Treasury Futures and Their Use as

a Risk Management Tool

Moderator Warren Manners FSA MAAA

Presenters David Gibbs Agha Mizra

SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration

March 2018

Prepared for SOA Investment Symposium 2018

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors and involves the risk of loss Futures are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade All references to options refer to options on futures

Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the meaning of section 1(a)12 of the Commodity Exchange Act Swaps are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a swaps position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade

Any research views expressed are those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CME Group or its affiliates

CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc The Globe Logo CME Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of ChicagoMercantile Exchange Inc CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange Inc COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange Inc KCBOT KCBT and Kansas City Board of Trade are trademarks of The Board of Trade of Kansas City Missouri Inc All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners

The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions Additionally all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations used for explanation purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official Exchange rules Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications

Copyright copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Disclaimer

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 3

CME Group Interest Rate Products

Eurodollars 0-10 Years

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 4

US Treasury FuturesMultiple uses and users

CFTC COT ReportBreaks Open Interest data in reporting categories

1 Dealer Intermediary2 Asset Manager Institutional3 Leveraged Funds4 Other Reportable

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 2: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration

March 2018

Prepared for SOA Investment Symposium 2018

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors and involves the risk of loss Futures are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade All references to options refer to options on futures

Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the meaning of section 1(a)12 of the Commodity Exchange Act Swaps are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a swaps position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade

Any research views expressed are those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CME Group or its affiliates

CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc The Globe Logo CME Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of ChicagoMercantile Exchange Inc CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange Inc COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange Inc KCBOT KCBT and Kansas City Board of Trade are trademarks of The Board of Trade of Kansas City Missouri Inc All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners

The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions Additionally all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations used for explanation purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official Exchange rules Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications

Copyright copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Disclaimer

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 3

CME Group Interest Rate Products

Eurodollars 0-10 Years

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 4

US Treasury FuturesMultiple uses and users

CFTC COT ReportBreaks Open Interest data in reporting categories

1 Dealer Intermediary2 Asset Manager Institutional3 Leveraged Funds4 Other Reportable

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
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  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 3: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors and involves the risk of loss Futures are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade All references to options refer to options on futures

Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the meaning of section 1(a)12 of the Commodity Exchange Act Swaps are a leveraged investment and because only a percentage of a contractrsquos value is required to trade it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a swaps position Therefore traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade

Any research views expressed are those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CME Group or its affiliates

CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc The Globe Logo CME Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of ChicagoMercantile Exchange Inc CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange Inc COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange Inc KCBOT KCBT and Kansas City Board of Trade are trademarks of The Board of Trade of Kansas City Missouri Inc All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners

The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions Additionally all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations used for explanation purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official Exchange rules Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications

Copyright copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Disclaimer

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 3

CME Group Interest Rate Products

Eurodollars 0-10 Years

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 4

US Treasury FuturesMultiple uses and users

CFTC COT ReportBreaks Open Interest data in reporting categories

1 Dealer Intermediary2 Asset Manager Institutional3 Leveraged Funds4 Other Reportable

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 4: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 3

CME Group Interest Rate Products

Eurodollars 0-10 Years

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 4

US Treasury FuturesMultiple uses and users

CFTC COT ReportBreaks Open Interest data in reporting categories

1 Dealer Intermediary2 Asset Manager Institutional3 Leveraged Funds4 Other Reportable

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 5: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 4

US Treasury FuturesMultiple uses and users

CFTC COT ReportBreaks Open Interest data in reporting categories

1 Dealer Intermediary2 Asset Manager Institutional3 Leveraged Funds4 Other Reportable

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 6: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Chart1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
138833
160370
174741
1233563
927677
583456
520510
846781
409490
401903
148752
68078
346365
557595

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
DealerInt DealerInt DealerInt
AMInstit AMInstit AMInstit
Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds Leveraged Funds
Other Reportable Other Reportable Other Reportable
Non-Reportable Non-Reportable Non-Reportable
Page 7: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet1

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
CFTC COT data amp charts
December 19 2017 Report date 12-Dec-17
E-mini SampP 500 Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 285395 1452269 495933 111405 430737
Short 781931 716715 650537 239343 387214
Spread 492682 490759 716008 234284
total OI 4709472
Eurodollar Futures
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6634861 127363 555348 92254 542139
Short 713533 2945788 2449584 484691 1358369
Spread 4529090 1900291 10920754 1953393
total OI 27255494
UST Ten-Year Note
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 138833 1233563 520510 401903 346365
Short 160370 927677 846781 148752 557595
Spread 174741 583456 409490 68078
total OI 3876939
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 43412 235385 63366 17750 84508
Short 210982 105546 55963 7472 64459
Spread 33541 24840 71596 6277
total OI 580674
Fed Funds
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 446913 38154 44217 44266 33577
Short 214807 2815 303913 27773 57819
Spread 481196 70123 249598 72629
total OI 1480673
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 83980 24692 29495 32231 23534
Short 44854 58978 51596 4627 33877
Spread 3479 3316 9810 80
total OI 210617
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 129970 20576 34694 15942 26706
Short 58651 73011 54526 10543 31157
Spread 7609 6234 25278 2584
total OI 269593
Page 8: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet1

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
E-mini SampP 500 Futures amp Options

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 9: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

FX

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Eurodollar Futures amp Options

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 10: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet3

SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
UST Ten-Year Note Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 11: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 12: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated December 12 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Fed Fund Futures amp Options
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 13: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 14: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated June 13 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 15: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
CFTC COT data amp charts
September 19 2017 Report date 19-Sep-17
Canadian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 38337 41372 82904 4511 47337
Short 135765 7558 30356 14752 26029
Spread 86899 6568 19701 2214
total OI 329843
Swiss Franc
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 0 1699 22104 0 11100
Short 3704 3567 11202 2005 14425
Spread 20 0 1535 0
total OI 36458
British Pound
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 49044 18540 59093 24376 34211
Short 10834 70324 63497 9314 31296
Spread 21170 7701 50584 3840
total OI 268560
Japanese Yen
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 70802 21586 41295 19352 19967
Short 12369 46567 75002 3680 35384
Spread 14512 9352 28554 7154
total OI 232574
Euro FX
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 39259 194388 75114 20655 81758
Short 105190 96345 73508 75421 60709
Spread 21059 21026 55901 5612
total OI 514771
Australian Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 1850 20462 95948 928 35809
Short 99323 16425 16296 1484 21468
Spread 4873 3706 12669 2110
total OI 178354
Mexican Peso
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 8514 56549 139490 3215 9008
Short 118353 5222 80403 9953 2845
Spread 256 282 1274 0
total OI 218588
Brazilian Real
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 270 5329 22046 920 2139
Short 16351 238 12692 920 503
Spread 50 0 1164 0
total OI 31918
New Zealand Dollar
DealerInt AMInstit Leveraged Funds Other Reportable Non-Reportable
Long 6060 1949 21038 165 5180
Short 3883 8492 18113 727 3177
Spread 69 0 2612 0
total OI 37073
Page 16: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Canadian Dollar FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 17: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Swiss Franc
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British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
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Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
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Contracts Open
Euro FX
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Long
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Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
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Long
Short
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Mexican Peso
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Brazilian Real
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Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
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39962 39962
39933 39933
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39871 39871
39843 39843
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39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 18: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
British Pound
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 19: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Japanese Yen
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 20: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Euro FX
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 21: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Australian Dollar
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 22: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Mexican Peso
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 23: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
Brazilian Real
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 24: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
SourceCFTC COT Report Dated September 19 2017
Long
Short
Spread
Contracts Open
New Zealand Dollar

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
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  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 25: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 26: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 5

Review Basics

The Delivery Process

Position Day

3-Day delivery process

Optionality

Invoice amount

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 27: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 6

Review Basics

Contract specs

Each has its own ldquobasketrdquo

Contract Scale Factor

Delivery days (dates)

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 28: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 7

Review Basics

Conversion Factors (CF)

Used in invoicing at delivery

Used in calculating basis

Allow for relative value analysis

ldquoEyesrdquo through which the contract ldquoseesrdquo basket

Theoretical price at which security yields 6

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
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41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
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41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 29: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 8

Review Basics

Basis

Exchange for Physical (EFP)

Action on the cash side

Carry cost of carry

Net basis

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
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  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 30: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2017 CME Group All rights reserved 9

Review Basics

Cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)

Most economically efficient to deliver

BPV of CTD used in calculating hedge ratios

US Treasury Futures tend to trade like their CTD issue

The exchange does not establish which issue is CTD

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
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  • Slide Number 6
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  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
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  • Slide Number 21
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  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 31: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

10

One consequence of the long bull market in interest rates is the steady extension of portfolio and benchmark bond index duration

Source Bloomberg

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 32: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Chart1

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
607
297
598
271
6
271
596
26
596
255
593
242
599
251
601
255
595
246
596
253
6
261
595
257
595
261
589
261
585
257
559
212
551
196
551
195
547
186
547
191
553
22
551
215
547
216
54
226
544
234
568
259
567
248
564
237
56
231
562
242
561
235
563
239
552
219
547
213
545
206
547
212
537
192
555
225
555
217
557
224
562
236
561
222
562
233
56
222
561
217
563
231
565
239
559
228
552
231
555
248
556
233
549
225
552
234
555
248
551
234
549
235
545
208
522
173
526
186
522
184
52
19
506
174
5
169
502
17
485
161
502
174
496
172
507
198
509
197
507
207
501
222
494
21
486
205
495
224
502
24
508
237
496
235
505
239
518
261
519
283
519
274
508
289
512
308
51
302
504
297
498
297
482
268
459
245
467
256
412
235
413
257
43
283
454
319
472
335
468
347
453
335
448
337
457
368
421
315
441
348
443
355
435
374
431
388
43
412
414
408
396
406
373
406
413
459
376
427
371
399
405
496
471
567
447
527
471
505
478
514
468
507
465
497
446
47
438
451
439
449

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 33: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
Page 34: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
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  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 35: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 36: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

11

Higher duration portfolios and benchmarks in an historically low interest rate environment has caused the ldquobreak-evenrdquo rate to move lower and closer to current interest rate levels

Source Bloomberg and CME Group

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
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41789 41789
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41698 41698
41670 41670
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41180 41180
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40998 40998
40968 40968
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40816 40816
40786 40786
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40694 40694
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39507 39507
Page 37: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Chart1

Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps
297
489291598023
271
453177257525
271
451666666667
26
436241610738
255
427852348993
242
408094435076
251
419031719533
255
424292845258
246
413445378151
253
424496644295
261
435
257
431932773109
261
438655462185
261
443123938879
257
439316239316
212
379248658318
196
355716878403
195
35390199637
186
340036563071
191
349177330896
22
397830018083
215
390199637024
216
394881170018
226
418518518519
234
430147058824
259
455985915493
248
437389770723
237
420212765957
231
4125
242
430604982206
235
41889483066
239
424511545293
219
396739130435
213
389396709324
206
377981651376
212
387568555759
192
357541899441
225
405405405405
217
390990990991
224
402154398564
236
419928825623
222
395721925134
233
414590747331
222
396428571429
217
386809269162
231
410301953819
239
423008849558
228
407871198569
231
41847826087
248
446846846847
233
419064748201
225
409836065574
234
423913043478
248
446846846847
234
424682395644
235
428051001821
208
381651376147
173
331417624521
186
3536121673
184
352490421456
19
365384615385
174
343873517787
169
338
17
338645418327
161
331958762887
174
346613545817
172
346774193548
198
390532544379
197
387033398821
207
408284023669
222
443113772455
21
425101214575
205
421810699588
224
452525252525
24
478087649402
237
466535433071
235
473790322581
239
473267326733
261
503861003861
283
54527938343
274
527938342967
289
568897637795
308
6015625
302
592156862745
297
589285714286
297
596385542169
268
55601659751
245
533769063181
256
54817987152
235
570388349515
257
622276029056
283
658139534884
319
702643171806
335
709745762712
347
741452991453
335
739514348786
337
752232142857
368
805251641138
315
748218527316
348
789115646259
355
801354401806
374
859770114943
388
900232018561
412
958139534884
408
985507246377
406
1025252525253
406
1088471849866
459
1111380145278
427
1135638297872
399
1075471698113
496
1224691358025
567
1203821656051
527
1178970917226
505
1072186836518
514
1075313807531
507
1083333333333
497
1068817204301
47
1053811659193
451
1029680365297
449
102277904328

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
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  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
43131 43131
43098 43098
43069 43069
43039 43039
43007 43007
42978 42978
42947 42947
42916 42916
42886 42886
42853 42853
42825 42825
42794 42794
42766 42766
42734 42734
42704 42704
42674 42674
42643 42643
42613 42613
42580 42580
42551 42551
42521 42521
42489 42489
42460 42460
42429 42429
42398 42398
42369 42369
42338 42338
42307 42307
42277 42277
42247 42247
42216 42216
42185 42185
42153 42153
42124 42124
42094 42094
42062 42062
42034 42034
42004 42004
41971 41971
41943 41943
41912 41912
41880 41880
41851 41851
41820 41820
41789 41789
41759 41759
41729 41729
41698 41698
41670 41670
41639 41639
41607 41607
41578 41578
41547 41547
41516 41516
41486 41486
41453 41453
41425 41425
41394 41394
41362 41362
41333 41333
41305 41305
41274 41274
41243 41243
41213 41213
41180 41180
41152 41152
41121 41121
41089 41089
41060 41060
41029 41029
40998 40998
40968 40968
40939 40939
40907 40907
40877 40877
40847 40847
40816 40816
40786 40786
40753 40753
40724 40724
40694 40694
40662 40662
40633 40633
40602 40602
40574 40574
40543 40543
40512 40512
40480 40480
40451 40451
40421 40421
40389 40389
40359 40359
40329 40329
40298 40298
40268 40268
40235 40235
40207 40207
40178 40178
40147 40147
40116 40116
40086 40086
40056 40056
40025 40025
39994 39994
39962 39962
39933 39933
39903 39903
39871 39871
39843 39843
39813 39813
39780 39780
39752 39752
39721 39721
39689 39689
39660 39660
39629 39629
39598 39598
39568 39568
39538 39538
39507 39507
Page 38: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Worksheet

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Date mod dur yield BE
Jan-18 607 297 4893
Dec-17 598 271 4532
Nov-17 600 271 4517
Oct-17 596 26 4362
Sep-17 596 255 4279
Aug-17 593 242 4081
Jul-17 599 251 4190
Jun-17 601 255 4243
May-17 595 246 4134
Apr-17 596 253 4245
Mar-17 6 261 4350
Feb-17 595 257 4319
Jan-17 595 261 4387
Dec-16 589 261 4431
Nov-16 585 257 4393
Oct-16 559 212 3792
Sep-16 551 196 3557
Aug-16 551 195 3539
Jul-16 547 186 3400
Jun-16 547 191 3492
May-16 553 22 3978
Apr-16 551 215 3902
Mar-16 547 216 3949
Feb-16 54 226 4185
Jan-16 544 234 4301
Dec-15 568 259 4560
Nov-15 567 248 4374
Oct-15 564 237 4202
Sep-15 56 231 4125
Aug-15 562 242 4306
Jul-15 561 235 4189
Jun-15 563 239 4245
May-15 552 219 3967
Apr-15 547 213 3894
Mar-15 545 206 3780
Feb-15 547 212 3876
Jan-15 537 192 3575
Dec-14 555 225 4054
Nov-14 555 217 3910
Oct-14 557 224 4022
Sep-14 562 236 4199
Aug-14 561 222 3957
Jul-14 562 233 4146
Jun-14 56 222 3964
May-14 561 217 3868
Apr-14 563 231 4103
Mar-14 565 239 4230
Feb-14 559 228 4079
Jan-14 552 231 4185
Dec-13 555 248 4468
Nov-13 556 233 4191
Oct-13 549 225 4098
Sep-13 552 234 4239
Aug-13 555 248 4468
Jul-13 551 234 4247
Jun-13 549 235 4281
May-13 545 208 3817
Apr-13 522 173 3314
Mar-13 526 186 3536
Feb-13 522 184 3525
Jan-13 52 19 3654
Dec-12 506 174 3439
Nov-12 5 169 3380
Oct-12 502 17 3386
Sep-12 485 161 3320
Aug-12 502 174 3466
Jul-12 496 172 3468
Jun-12 507 198 3905
May-12 509 197 3870
Apr-12 507 207 4083
Mar-12 501 222 4431
Feb-12 494 21 4251
Jan-12 486 205 4218
Dec-11 495 224 4525
Nov-11 502 24 4781
Oct-11 508 237 4665
Sep-11 496 235 4738
Aug-11 505 239 4733
Jul-11 518 261 5039
Jun-11 519 283 5453
May-11 519 274 5279
Apr-11 508 289 5689
Mar-11 512 308 6016
Feb-11 51 302 5922
Jan-11 504 297 5893
Dec-10 498 297 5964
Nov-10 482 268 5560
Oct-10 459 245 5338
Sep-10 467 256 5482
Aug-10 412 235 5704
Jul-10 413 257 6223
Jun-10 43 283 6581
May-10 454 319 7026
Apr-10 472 335 7097
Mar-10 468 347 7415
Feb-10 453 335 7395
Jan-10 448 337 7522
Dec-09 457 368 8053
Nov-09 421 315 7482
Oct-09 441 348 7891
Sep-09 443 355 8014
Aug-09 435 374 8598
Jul-09 431 388 9002
Jun-09 43 412 9581
May-09 414 408 9855
Apr-09 396 406 10253
Mar-09 373 406 10885
Feb-09 413 459 11114
Jan-09 376 427 11356
Dec-08 371 399 10755
Nov-08 405 496 12247
Oct-08 471 567 12038
Sep-08 447 527 11790
Aug-08 471 505 10722
Jul-08 478 514 10753
Jun-08 468 507 10833
May-08 465 497 10688
Apr-08 446 47 10538
Mar-08 438 451 10297
Feb-08 439 449 10228
Page 39: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Worksheet

Duration
Yield
Duration
Yield
Barclays Aggregate Yield and Duration
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 40: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:
Yield
Breakeven
Yield
Basis points
Barclays Aggregate Yield and BE bps

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 41: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

12

Assume you are a portfolio manager with $10 Billion USD exposure to US interest rates The portfolio is diversified across the yield curve and is benchmarked to a bond index

If provided with the current portfolio and the new benchmark weightings can the PM use CME Group US Treasury futures to adjust the portfolio closer to the benchmark

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 42: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

13

Tranche YieldModified

Duration (years)

DV01 (per $1mm face value)

Position (in $1mm face

value) Aggregate DV011-3 years 0591 197 $19700 2055 $404835

3-5 years 0905 475 $47300 1925 $910525

5-7 years 1188 644 $64300 1900 $1221700

7-10 years 1374 877 $85500 1650 $1410750

10+ years 2042 1956 $192500 2470 $4754750

882 $10 billion $8702560

Assume this is the current portfolio by maturity tranche

Data source Theoretical CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 43: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

14

This table shows the benchmarkrsquos targeted duration by tranche

TrancheBenchmark

Duration Duration Adjustment 1-3 years 192 -00253-5 years 385 -01895-7 years 566 -01217-10 years 791 -009810+ years 1624 -0170

781

To determine the proper adjustment or hedge ratios we need to know more about the futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 44: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

15

ZFM7

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 45: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Chart1

ZTM7
ZNM7
ZBM7
UBM7
TNM7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures CTD Yield Curve
001176
001184
001865
001792
002176
002162
002369
002375
002964
00267
002924

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
43465 43465
44561 44347
45291 45245
46341 46249
53646 50175
52458
Page 46: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet1

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
US Treasury OTR amp Futures curve
5-Jan-17
OTR
Maturity Yield
123118 1176
123121 1865
123123 2176
111526 2369
111546 2964
Futures
123118 1184
53121 1792
111523 2162
81526 2375
51537 2670
81543 2924
Page 47: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet1

ZTH7
ZNH7
ZBH7
UBH7
TNH7
OTR
Futures
UST OTR versus Futures Yield Curve

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 48: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet2

ZFH7

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 49: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Sheet3

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 50: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

16

US Treasury Contract CTD Issue (Dec-2016) Modified Duration (CTD) DV01 (per contract)2-Year 1-38 9302018 180 $3915

5-Year 1-18 2282021 411 $4864

10-Year 2-12 8152023 610 $7675

Ultra Ten Year 1-58 5152026 866 $11618

Long Bond 5 5152037 1389 $20989

Ultra Bond 3-18 2152042 1722 $27738

CME Group CTD Analysis adjusted for $200000 notional

Step 1 Identify each contractrsquos CTD issue and ascertain its BPV (DV01)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 51: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

17

Step 2 Determine duration adjustments needed for each tranche

Tranche Dcurrent Dtarget Dadjustment Aggregate DV011-3 years 197 192 -0025 $404835

3-5 years 475 385 -0189 $910525

5-7 years 644 566 -0121 $1221700

7-10 years 877 791 -0098 $1410750

10+ years 1956 1624 -0170 $4754750

882 781 $8702560

Duration adjustment (DA) = (Dtarget ndash Dcurrent) divide Dcurrent

For example 1-3 years DA = (192 ndash 197) 197 = -0025The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Data Source Citi Yieldbook and CME Group

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 52: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

18

Step 3 Incorporate the DA factor into the HR calculation

Hedge ratio (HR) = (BPV risk divide BPV contract) x DA

For example 1-3 years HR = (404835 divide 3915) x -0025 = -259 The negative result shows we need to reduce duration and sell futures contracts

Tranche BPV risk BPV contract DA factorHR = (Risk divide contract)

x DAContract

(Globex code)1-3 years $404835 3915 -0025 -259 ZT

3-5 years $910525 $4864 -0189 -3538 ZF

5-7 years $1221700 $7675 -0121 -1926 ZN

7-10 years $1410750 $11618 -0098 -1190 TN

10+ years $4754750 $27738 -0170 -2914 ZB

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 53: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

19

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Using time period 14 October ndash 23 November 2016 as a test caseOverlaps the US General Election (Nov 8-9) and subsequent rise in US rates

We will use on-the-run (OTR) US Treasury securities as surrogates for the portfolio tranches

Tranche OTR Treasury 1014 Priceyield 1123 Priceyield Change PampL

1-3 years 34 9302018 99-265 0837 99-11 1108 -$ 9953906

3-5 years 1-18 9302021 99-07 1287 96-21 1851 -$40906250

5-7 years 1-38 9302023 98-19 1591 95-01 2158 -$86687500

7-10 years 1-12 8152026 97-10 1799 92-16 2369 -$79406250

10+ years 2-14 8152046 93-19 2559 84-18 3042 -223071875

Unadjusted portfolio Total = ($440025781)

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 54: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

20

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

Compare with the futures Key Rate Duration (KRD) overlay

Tranche Contract (Globex code)

Hedge Ratio (contracts)

1014 Price 1123 Price Change PampL

1-3 years ZT -259 109-01 108-19+ $218531

3-5 years ZF -3538 120-26+ 118-11 $8789719

5-7 years ZN -1926 129-27+ 125-11+ $8667000

7-10 years TN -1190 141-29+ 135-01+ $8181250

10+ years ZB -2914 176-19 161-29 $42799375

Total = $68655875

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 55: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

21

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environment

($440025781) + $68655875 = ($371369906) net loss

The $371 million loss is reasonable as it represents the rough equivalent of a 742 duration portfolio (versus target of 781) for a roughly 500 basis point move higher in rates

The futures hedge effectively reduced the duration by 1-year reducing the portfolio losses by $68 million

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 56: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

22

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Possible advantages asymmetrical risk reward versus futures limited loss accelerating gamma (convexity) if correct market direction

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 57: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

23

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Looking at the 5-7 year tranche we previously calculated a hedge ratio of 1251 TY futures contracts

Substitute the short TY futures position with O-T-M puts delta weighted

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield Step 1 Determine the equivalent futures price levelStep 2 Using the delta of the put calculate equivalent options contractsStep 3 Buy equivalent put options at equivalent strike price

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 58: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

24

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Assume a target level of 500 bps higher in yield

Step 1 A 500 bps move higher in rates would result in TY futures selling off to approximately 125-25 price level

Therefore the closest strike price would be the Dec 126-00 puts Looking at the December 126-00 TY put we see

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 59: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

25

Can options on futures be used in an overlay

Example Long Single Put

Option Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126 Put 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Step 2 Determine the delta weighted number of puts needed

Put amount = HR (in futures) Delta = 1251 005 = 25020 or

Step 3 Buy 25020 Z126 TY puts at 3 (164s)25020 x $15625 x 3 = $1172813 outlay

Total payment due at time of execution Total cost defines maximum loss

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 60: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

26

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

OptionDate Price Delta Gamma Theta Vega Volatility

Z126P-1014 3 -005 00420 -00023 00436 536

Z126P-1123 44 -085 03787 -00371 00208 675

Change 41

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 61: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Key Target Duration AdjustmentMultiple contract overlay

27

How does this hedge perform in a rate rising environmentExample Long Single Put

From 14 October to 23 November the price of the December Ten-Year Note (TY) futures fell from 129-275 to 125-115 How did the option overlay perform

Price fell far enough to place the Dec 126 puts from O-T-M to I-T-M greatly increasing in value

PampL = 25020 x 41 points x $15625 per point = $16028438

Single Put Futures

Result $16028438 $5629500

Capital outlay $1172813 $1995345

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 62: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Questions

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 63: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Presenters

29

Agha Mirza serves as CME Grouprsquos Managing Director and Global Head of Interest Rate Products He is responsible for the management and growth of CME Grouprsquos Interest Rate Futures and Options products In 2015 Mirza was appointed to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Before joining the company in 2013 Mirza served as Managing Director and Head of the Canadian Rates business at Citigroup where he spent 17 years as an interest rates trader and trading manager Mirza has taught the MBA class ldquoRethinking Risk Managementrdquo at Insead Business School He holds both a Master of Science degree and a Bachelor of Science degree from MIT

David Gibbs Director of Market Development and Education at CME Group is a futures market professional with more than thirty-five years of industry experience Beginning in the open-outcry pits of the Chicago futures exchanges he has held leadership positions with global futures commission merchants and actively traded financial futures options and cash-market products for both buy-side and sell-side firms He is an expert in the pricing mechanism for derivatives including financial futures and their underlying products Leveraging that expertise David also is a noted teacher of the application of futures and options and how they are used successfully by professional traders and managers of risk in todayrsquos increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical environment As a leader in developing product content at CME Group David engages end-users of derivative products from asset management hedge fund prop trading and banking communities around the world

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 64: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

copy 2018 CME Group All rights reserved

Contact

David Gibbs Director

Market Development amp Education

+1 312 207 2591

davidgibbscmegroupcom

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback
Page 65: 2018 Investment Symposium - SOA · 2018. 2. 16. · 2018 Investment Symposium . Session 2A: Understanding U.S. Treasury Futures and Their Use as a Risk Management Tool . Moderator:

Provide Your FeedbackYour input is invaluable and helps the SOA to provide feedback to presenters and future program committees Session evaluations will be sent electronically for each session you attended Please take the time to provide your feedback

In addition to the individual evaluations an overall evaluation form will be sent electronically to all attendees after the meeting Your feedback is important and the results will assist us in planning future meetings

32

  • Using US Treasury Futures to Adjust Key Rate Duration
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Questions
  • Slide Number 29
  • ContactDavid Gibbs DirectorMarket Development amp Education+1 312 207 2591davidgibbscmegroupcom
  • Slide Number 31
  • Provide Your Feedback