2017 in review: economy, fmcg & possibilities · vietnam philippines thailand indonesia...
TRANSCRIPT
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
1 Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2017 IN REVIEW: ECONOMY, FMCG & POSSIBILITIES Nielsen Market Pulse Report – Year-end 2017
Prepared by Nielsen Market Pulse Team
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
2
GROWTH ACROSS SECTORS DRIVES HOME BEST GDP
PERFORMANCE IN A DECADE Industry and Services’ robustness is joined by Agriculture’s recovery
5.7 5.4
6.4 6.2
5.3 5.4 6.0
6.7 6.2
6.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3.5 2.4
1.4 2.9
7.1
9.6
7.6 8.0
6.0 6.3 7.0 7.4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
Agriculture Industry Services
9.2
6.6
4.1
0.6
2.7 3.5
GDP % Growth vs. Year Ago Sectors’ GDP Growth vs. Year Ago
CPI Growth vs. Year Ago
CPI is under target 4%,
indicating well-managed
monetary policy
Source: GSO - Social and economic situation in Full Year 2017
2017’s 6.8% growth
exceeds 6.7% target
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
3 Source: GCR 2017-2018 report by World Economic Forum - GRDI report 2017 by A.T. Kearney
VIETNAM’S ATTRACTIVENESS ON GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
IS FURTHER IMPROVED
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS RANKING 2017
VIETNAM – Ranking
55/137 (▲5 vs. 2016)
GLOBAL RETAIL DEVELOPMENT INDEX 2017
VIETNAM – Ranking
6/30 top developing
countries for retail investment
TOP 5: INDIA | CHINA | MALAYSIA | TURKEY | UAE
HIGHEST IN PAST 10 YEARS
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
4
PROMISE LANDS: MIGRATION REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES
IN BOTH URBAN & RURAL
Source: Regions follow government’s definition. GSO Population report 2016. Net migration = immigrants – emigrants The World Factbook (CIA, 2017)
DEMOGRAPHICS 2017 – URBAN VS. RURAL MIGRATION FLOWS (% of migrants)
35 44 53 55 76
65 56 47 45 24
2.6
1.6
2.2 2.3
2.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia
Urban population (%) Rural population (%)
Urbanization rate (%)
URBAN
18%
RURAL
29%
50%
3%
Increase consumer base
Bring urban lifestyle to rural
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
5
AS ECONOMY FLOURISHES, CONSUMERS’ CONCERN
SHIFTS FROM JOB SECURITY TO PRICE
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
Q: % respondents say these are top concern
JOB SECURITY (41%, -6%)
HEALTH (37%, +3%)
WORK/ LIFE BALANCE (27%, +2%)
THE ECONOMY (22%, +4%)
INCREASING UTILITY BILLS
(10%, +2%)
INCREASING FOOD PRICE
(8%, +2%)
INCREASING FUEL PRICE (6%, +4%)
Top Consumers’ Concerns Q3’17 vs. Q3’16
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
6
LIVELIHOOD IS ALSO IMPACTED BY UNPREDICTABLE
AND CATASTROPHIC NATURAL DISASTERS
Source: Tapchitaichinh.vn
17,000
59,300
10-year Average 2017
Damage Caused By Natural
Disasters, Bn. VND
15 September, 2017 Typhoon Doksuri
692,000 people impacted, >11,000 ha agricultural
lands damaged
9 October, 2017 Tropical Depression 23W 40,000 people impacted, >8,000ha of rice damaged and 40,000 animals perished
4 November, 2017 Typhoon Damrey
500,000 people affected, >12,000ha agricultural lands
damaged
7 August, 2017 Heavy rain triggered flash floods and landslides 231 houses collapsed, 425 houses and 340 ha agricultural land damaged
Disasters repeatedly struck towards end of year with increased intensity and carnage
Unprecedented damage recorded
For the 1st time, Vietnam endures 16 typhoons (5 making landfall)
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
7
DESPITE Q4 SLOW DOWN, FMCG STILL SEES POSITIVE
GROWTH IN 2017
Categories including: Shampoo, Hair Conditioner, Toilet Soap, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Feminine Protection, Laundry, Dishwashing Liquid, Fabric Softener, Household Cleaner, H.I. Aerosol, H.I. Coil, Insecticide Control, Msg-Bouillon, Instant Noodles, Biscuits, Pie & Sponge Cake, Soft Drink, Energy Drink, RTD Tea, Fruit Juice, Package Water, Sport Drink, Coffee , Beer, RTD Milk, SCM, Sauces, Chili Sauce, Tonic Fodd Drink, Cigarette.
1.8% 0.8%
1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 3.8%
1.0%
5.1%
7.9%
5.0% 5.8%
-0.1%
4.9% 5.4%
4.8%
5.6%
2.8%
6.5%
8.9%
5.7%
6.4%
0.5%
2016 2017 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17
Unit Value Growth Volume Change (Weighted Value) Nominal Value Growth
FMCG Growth YA – Traditional Trade Nationwide
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
8
1.8% 0.8%
3.2% 4.5%
4.9% 5.4%
MAT LY MAT TY
1.0% 0.8%
3.0% 3.2%
4.1% 4.0%
MAT LY MAT TY
URBAN (50%) RURAL (50%)
1.9% 0.8%
3.0% 5.4%
4.9%
6.1%
MAT LY MAT TY
Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago Note: This slide only includes Feminine Protection, Hair Conditioner, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Personal Wash, Dishwashing Liquids, Fabric Softener, Laundry Products, Bouillon-MSG, RTDM, Soft Drink, Packaged Water, Energy Drink, RTDT, Cigarette, Sport Drink, Sweet Condensed Milk, Fruit Juice , Household Cleaners, Beer, Instant Noodles, Household Insecticide, Tonic Food Drinks, Pie&Sponge Cake, and Biscuits
VIETNAM
2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
…DRIVEN BY RURAL AT A FASTER PACE
Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics – By Urban/Rural
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
9
4.0%
5.1%
3.5%
5.7% 6.0%5.3%
6.5%
1.3%
1.3%4.8% 5.4%
9.0% 9.4%
3.7%
0.5%
-6.5%-1.7%
1.3%2.1%
7.8%
10.0%
6.0%5.4%
-3.0%
5.3%6.3%
4.8%
8.6% 9.0%7.1%
4.2%
-3.7%-0.2%
2.3%
0.4%
5.8%
8.8%
5.3%4.4%
-1.4%
8.3%7.3%
2.6%
6.2%
9.9%
5.8%
8.4%
3.2%
HOME CARE
Unit Value Change Volume Change Nominal Value Growth
BEVERAGE 46%
45.6%
5%
FOOD MILK-BASED
PERSONAL CARE CIGARETTE
15%
6%
9%
19%
SUPER GROUP CONTRIBUTION & GROWTH –
TRADITIONAL TRADE NATIONWIDE
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
10 Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2017 – THE ECONOMY ENDS ON A HIGH NOTE
POSITIVE FMCG GROWTH
• Vietnam economy shows the strongest performance in latest 10 years
• Growth across sectors with Inflation under control
• Global position improved in competitiveness and attractiveness
• Positive FMCG Growth in 2017 despite recent slowdown in Q4 • Rural continues posting higher growth • Most categories sustain/accelerate, except for Milk Based & Personal Care
• Price hikes raise concerns with looming impact on consumer confidence • Unforgiving natural disasters affect people’s livelihood
TO KEEP WATCH
EFFECTIVE REGULATIONS
Decreasing interests & Maintaining tax rate
POSITIVE BUSINESS PROSPECT
FDI Influx & Manufacturers’ willingness to spend
TOURISM – EMERGING
FACTOR
Multi-billion-dollar industry showing potential
DYNAMIC MIGRATIONS
Opportunity for both urban & rural markets
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Co
mp
an
y. C
on
fid
en
tia
l an
d p
rop
rie
tary
.
11 Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
David Levitch – Senior Manager – [email protected]
Hoang Pham Lam Hong – [email protected]
Mai Thanh Dung – [email protected]
Nguyen Thi Loi – [email protected]
Han Tu Oanh – [email protected]
Nguyen Kim Xuan Thuy – [email protected]
Nguyen Tran Minh Hoang – [email protected]