2017 central valley flood protection plan update: overview · 2017 central valley flood protection...
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2015 FMA Conference
CVFPP Overview- Mike Mierzwa, DWR
Basin-wide Feasibility Study Planning Context- Eric Tsai, DWR
Technical Tools/Methodologies- Rummy Sandhu & David Arrate, DWR
Climate Change Considerations- Amy Bindra, DWR
Ecosystem Benefits Analysis- Mary Jimenez, DWR
Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits- Steve Hatchett, CH2M Hill
Next Steps and Key Messages- Mary Jimenez, DWR
2017 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update: Overview
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2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan
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Outcome Based Planning
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CVFPP Goals Intended OutcomesPrimary Goal: Improve flood risk management
Reduce the chance of flooding
Reduce damages once flooding occurs
Improve public safety, preparedness, and emergency response
Supporting Goals
Improve Operations and Maintenance
Promote Ecosystem Functions
Promote Multi-benefit Projects
Improve Institutional Support
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One Process, Many Activities
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GOAL: Supporting comprehensive investments to better manage flood waters
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Basin-Wide Feasibility Studies Planning Context
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2012 CVFPP State Systemwide Investment Approach
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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Purpose & Scope
• Refine scale/location of flood system elements; integrate environmental conservation
• Evaluate systemwide hydraulic effects, and ecosystem restoration opportunities
• Inform 2017 CVFPP update
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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Goals
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• Primary Goal• Improve Flood Risk
Management• Supporting Goals
• Promote Ecosystem Functions
• Improve Operations and Maintenance
• Promote Multi-Benefit Projects
Balanced
Reasonable
Cost-efficient
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Yolo Bypass Options
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Basin-Wide Technical AnalysisTools & Methodology
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Cost Estimates
Water Quality
Commercial Fisheries
Regional EconomicsEcosystem
Water Supply
Recreation Open/Space
Technical Analysis: Tools & Methodology
Economic &Life RiskAnalysis
(HEC-FDA)
Riverine Hydraulics(HEC-RAS)
Historical Data
(CDEC/ USGS)
Climate Change
(VIC)
Floodplain Hydraulics
(FLO2D)
Flood HydrologyAnalysis (CVHS)
Delta Hydraulics
(RMA2)
Reservoir Flow
(HEC-ResSim)
Local Flow(HEC-HMS)
Geotechnical Evaluation
(ULE/NULE)
Navigation
Loss of Services
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Flood Risk Analysis of Key Locations
Reg
ulat
ed F
low
Cha
nnel
Sta
ge
Reg
ulat
ed S
tage
Impact Area
Index Point
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System-wide Tools Applications
HEC-HMS/Bulletin 17B(CVHS)
CVHS HEC-ResSimCVFED HEC-RAS
CVFED HEC-RASRMA2
CVFED FLO-2DHEC-RAS
ULE/NULE
Updated Structure Inventory, Multiple flooding sources
HEC-FDA
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23
4
5
68
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Sacramento BWFS: What We’ve Learned
Sacramento Weir and Bypass Expansions
• Our flood system needs to be modernized to meet today’s needs and be resilient to future changes.
• Sacramento and Fremont Weir expansions can provide significant cross-regional stage reduction.
• Yolo Bypass setbacks provide varying levels of flood and ecosystem benefits.
Fremont Weir Expansions
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San Joaquin BWFS: Stage Frequency in the Delta
• Tidal Influenced• Elements Affected
− Paradise Cut− RD17 − Stockton/Delta
Front
Total Latitude Flow Frequency
• RMA2 Bay-Delta Model
• Dynamic Tide Stage Boundaries
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Firebaugh Small Community
Improvements• Flood Risk
Improvement
• Ecosystem Benefits
• Hydraulic Impacts
San Joaquin BWFS: Example Multi-Objective Element
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Climate Change Considerations
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Hydrologic Variability Considerations
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How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes
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Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends
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How Sea Level Rise Influences System Outflow
20(Source: NRC, 2012)
Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise in CaliforniaLow Mean High
2030 4.3 cm 14.4 cm 29.7 cm2050 12.3 cm 28.0 cm 60.8 cm2062* 18.5 cm
(0.61 ft.)38.8 cm(1.27 ft.)
83.1 cm(2.73 ft.)
2100 42.4 cm 91.9 cm 166.4 cm
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• Contributes to rise in extreme weather events
• Expected to generate more extreme floods, more seasonal rain, less snow and rising sea levels
• Increases stress on the system
Climate Change Impacts
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• Multi-phased approach − Phase 1 – included in 2012 plan− Phase 2a – 2007 global climate models, 112
independent climate projections− Phase 2b – More robust analysis and integration; 2013
global climate models, 200 independent climate projections
• Uses latest science and data• Integrates existing hydrologic and flood risk
approaches• Consistent with State’s climate change policies
Climate Change Approach for 2017 CVFPP
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Increasing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
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How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes
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Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends
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45ºN
35ºN
25ºN
170ºE140ºE 160ºW 130ºW 100ºW
Atmospheric River
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Temperature
Precipitation
General Circulation Model
Atmospheric River
Watershed
Risk Analysis and Flood Management Planning
CVFPP Climate Change Approach• Linking atmospheric processes, precipitation and temperature fields, and watershed
conditions to inform changes in flood risk
Stream flow
Adjusted Unregulated Flow Frequency Curves
Historical
Projected
HistoricalProjected
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Ecosystem Benefits Analysis for Multi-Objective Flood Planning
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Today’s Discussion
Ecosystem Integration into the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan- Overview of the CVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy- Development of Multi-Benefit Opportunities
BWFS Ecosystem Benefits Analyses- Overview of Purpose and Approach
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Ecosystem Integration into the CVFPPCVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy
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Multi-Benefit Project Development
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• The Draft Conservation Strategy guided development of ecosystem restoration concepts for flood system elements currently under consideration
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Fremont Weir
Elkhorn Basin
Upper Yolo Bypass Ecosystem Integration Concept
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• Conservation Strategy guided development of restoration concepts
• Multiple restoration concepts developed to show range of options
• Ongoing collaboration with stakeholders
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• Opportunities to expand riparian and shaded riverine aquatic (SRA) habitat
• Would provide benefits to target fish and bird species
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• Opportunities to work with local interests to expand floodplain inundation
• Would be in coordination with agricultural practices
• Would provide local and downstream benefits to target fish species
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• Opportunities to reduce existing fish passage barriers and expand fish passage in and out of the bypass
• Would provide benefits to adult and juvenile fish species
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Ecosystem Benefits Analyses
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• Informs decision making and understanding of tradeoffs
• Informs subsequent project implementation • Quantifies ecosystem values in a way that helps
track progress in meeting Conservation Strategy goals
• Informs discussions with resource agencies on permitting for projects and long-term O&M
• Develops tools that allow consistent evaluation of projects in regional context and meet USACE requirements
Purpose of Ecosystem Benefits Analyses
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• Based on a modified USACE Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) methodology
• Uses the ecosystem features identified in the restoration concepts as the basis for the benefits analyses - as compared to existing conditions
• Coordinated models were developed: − An Ecosystem Model that addresses habitat structure
and function− Species Models that address target species and habitat
connectivity
Ecosystem Benefits Approach
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Ecosystem Benefits – Example Results
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
1
2
3
4
Fully Functional Acre Equivalents
Con
figur
atio
n
Channel Bank
Riparian
Marsh-Other Wetland
Net Benefits for HabitatsBenefits for Species (Ex: Swainson’s Hawk)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3 Concept 4 Concept 5 Concept 6
Valu
e W
eigh
ted
Acr
es
System Element
Existing
Configuration 1
Configuration 2
Configuration 3
Configuration 4
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Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits of the CVFPP
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Ecosystem restoration
CVFPP Seeks to Provide a Range of Benefits
Flood risk management
Water supply and water quality
Hydropower
Commercial fisheries
Recreation and open space
Navigation
Social and regional economic effects
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• Hedonic demand approach
−Existing study of protected wildlife areas near cities
−Evaluated the effect of open space proximity to property value
−Adjusted for other property features
• California property value 3-6% higher if near protected wildlife area (all else equal)
Open space Enhances Property Value
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Loss of Transportation Service
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• Linked California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) network to road centerline geolocations.
• Overlaid flood inundation areas and depths on road network
• Assessed road operations and closures
• Used CSTDM to estimate traffic volumes, routes, travel times
• Estimated costs of travel delays, re-routing
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CSTDM Road Network- Central Valley Portion
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Linked Analysis Will Provide New Way of Assessing Transportation Service Benefits
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Where We’re GoingNext Steps and Key Messages
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Basin-wide Feasibility Study Next Steps
• Evaluation and comparison of BWFS options
• Continued stakeholder engagement
• Formulation of State-Preferred Plan
• Draft BWFS by End of 2015
• Further coordination/refinement through 2017 CVFPP
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Outcome-Based Planning for 2017 CVFPP Update
• Continued collaboration with stakeholders and parallel planning efforts (e.g., RFMP Phase 2)
• Evaluation of flood O&M requirements for existing and future flood system and ecosystem features
• Documentation of monitoring/tracking value of investments
CVFPP Next Steps
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• DWR is using the latest tools, models and methodologies to evaluate and compare various planning options
• Multiple planning efforts at different scales are being conducted to support the 2017 CVFPP
• DWR is conducting systemwide, multi-objective planning studies in two river basins to achieve resiliency and a wide range of public values
Key Messages
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