2017-18 Enrollment Update

Presented by:

Josh Hensley, Planning Coordinator

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future 1

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Presentation Purpose

Why is this topic on the board agenda?

To provide an overview of the current enrollment count and how it relates to our projections

What are we asking the board to do with this information?

Information only

How is this linked to the Strategic Plan, Vision, Mission, goals & core beliefs?

Planning for enrollment and budget is in alignment with our core belief that “a district with students at its center provides an adaptable and responsible foundation for learning.”

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

12 months ago: Enrollment Impacts of the 2016-17 Budget

Enrollment decrease of 530 students below projections

Revenue impact of $3 million (including over $2 million related to enrollment declines)

Decision made to take first substantial cuts at administrative level to protect schools

Between 2013-14 and 2016-17, budgeted spend down of $19.1 million in fund balance

Ruled out mid-year budget adjustments, focused on spending fund balance

Enrollment declines projected to continue: Estimated 2017-18 decrease of over 1,650 (At least $13 million impact)

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

2017-18 Budget Process

Strategic Budget Redesign Process:

– Received over 100 ideas from APS community

– Leadership team reviewed proposed ideas and identified dollar savings and classification of ideas based on feasibility

• Promising, Parking Lot, Not Feasible, Investigate

– Strategic Budget Advisory Committee scored impact based on:

• Student achievement, human capital, equity, public confidence, operations and APS Strategic Plan

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

2017-18 Budget Process

Strategic Budget Redesign Process:

– Structural budget reductions based on a projected enrollment decline of over 2,000 students in three fiscal years (including a projected 1,650 in FY 2017-18

– Implemented budget reductions district wide at both school and administrative levels

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Traditional District Daily Count Comparison: 10/02/2017

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Traditional Enrollment by Level – 10/02/2017

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Current K-12 Enrollment: 10/02/17

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TRADITIONAL TOTALS 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Projected 9/28/17 IC Enrollment

Change from Projected

Total 32,887 33,956 34,604 34,534 33,864 32,201 32,377 176

Change From Previous 736 1,069 648 -70 -670 -1,663 -1,487

Percent Change 2.29% 3.25% 1.91% -0.20% -1.94% -4.91% -4.39%

CHARTER SCHOOL TOTALS (without New America) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

2017-18 Projected

9/28/17 IC Enrollment

Change from Projected

Total 3,305 3,408 3,937 4,278 4,399 5,195 5,030 -165

Change From Previous 247 103 529 341 121 796 631

Percent Change 8.08% 3.12% 15.52% 8.66% 2.83% 18.10% 14.34%

TRADITIONAL + CHARTER TOTAL 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

2017-18 Projected

9/28/17 IC Enrollment

Change from Projected

Total 36,192 37,364 38,541 38,812 38,263 37,396 37,407 11

Change From Previous 983 1,172 1,177 271 -549 -867 -856

Percent Change 2.79% 3.24% 3.15% 0.70% -1.41% -2.27% -2.24%

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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Looking Ahead

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2017-18 budget projections are on par with current enrollment, which means mid-year adjustments will not be necessary

Looking ahead, we anticipate enrollment decline in 2018-19 as well

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Thank You!

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