2016: the year of the outsider - colorado counties,...

Floyd Ciruli 777 Grant St., Ste 303, Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com

2016: The Year of the Outsider

CCI FoundationSummer Conference

Professor Floyd Ciruli

Crossley Center for Public Opinion ResearchJosef Korbel School of International Studies

University of Denver

June 2016

Korbel School 20161

Trump vs. Clinton:What Does it Mean for Colorado?

Topics

Both parties dealingwith major change/candidates not popular

Policy changes in 2017‒ Foreign‒ Domestic

Colorado candidatesand ballot issues

Swing state, greatplace to watch

Korbel School 20162

Year of the OutsiderHistorical Precedents

1964 Barry Goldwater

1968 Eugene McCarthy

1972 George McGovern/GeorgeWallace

1976 Jimmy Carter

1980 Ronald Reagan

1984 Gary Hart

1992 Ross Perot

1996 Pat Buchanan

2004 Howard Dean

2008 Barack Obama

2012 Herman Cain, Ron Paul

2016 Donald Trump, Ben Carson,Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders

Barry Goldwater George McGovernPhoto: Getty

Donald Trump Bernie Sanders

Korbel School 20163

Major Challenge to Parties

Donald Trump

John Kasich

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Republicans

Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)

Democrats

Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)

Independents

Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)

Republicans

Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)

Democrats

Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)

Independents

Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)

Europe and U.S.: 2008/09 Economic crisis,Demographic change, Migration, Ethnic, Race,Religious tension, Terror

Ted Cruz

Korbel School 20164

Colorado Outsider Characteristics

Pat Schroeder

Dick Lamm

Gary Hart

Ben Nighthorse Campbell

Tom Tancredo

John Hickenlooper

Pat Schroeder Tom Tancredo

John Hickenlooper Ben NighthorseCampbell

In Colorado, Independence andAnti-establishment Image and

Tone are Major Asset

Korbel School 20165

Clinton Close to Delegate Win;Sanders Won’t QuitDemocratic Delegate Race

Need 2,382 Delegates to Win; 906 Remaining Delegates

Delegates % Votes

Clinton

PledgesSuper delegates

1,769543

4614

13.0 million Needs 8% of remainingdelegates

Total 2,312 60

Sanders

PledgesSuper delegates

1,50144

391

10.0 million Needs 92% ofremaining delegates

Total 1,545 40

Total 3,857 19% delegatesremainingTotal Delegates 4,763 81

Photo

:Ric

hPedro

ncelli/

AP

Bernie SandersPhoto

:CN

NHillary Clinton

California:Clinton: RCP 50%,PPIC 46%, Hoover 51%Sanders: RCP 42%,PPIC 44%, Hoover 38%

Source: AP, RealClearPolitics, 2016Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2016

Korbel School 20166

Colorado Caucus – Rigged or Chaos?Presidential Primary is Back

Republicans – 60,000 riggedNo preference pollCruz – 34 delegatesTrump – 0 delegatesUnpledged – 3

Democrats – 120,000 chaosSuper delegatesSanders – 41 delegatesClinton – 25 delegatesSuper delegates – 13Clinton – 9 (Hickenlooper, Bennet, Polis, DeGette)

March 1 Super Tuesday to April 16 final convention

Republican State ChairSteve House

Democratic State ChairRick Palacio

Korbel School 20167

Who Will Have a More FunConvention: Trump or Clinton?

Different Conventions – Same Challenges

Trump Clinton

Location Cleveland PhiladelphiaDate July 18-21 July 25-28Delegates 2,472 – passionate

backers for nominee,but many conservativedissenters

4,765 – little passionfor nominee, butpassion for platform

Party Leadership Disgruntled, absent On boardEntertainment Value Very high, top

production valuesGood, but notexceptional

Viewership Very high Better if conflictLikely to Leave Unified Maybe Maybe

Korbel School 20168

Clinton vs. TrumpNow What? Highly Volatile, Very Negative. The Regret Election.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

34%29%

54%58%

50%

69%

Favorable-USA Unfavorable-USA Unfavorable-Metro Area

Favorability Rating of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Popularity of parties (R’s 62% unfavorable to D’s 50%,Pew, 4-28-16); Will party vote for candidates (Trump61%, Clinton 80%)?

Hillary ClintonPhoto: Spencer Pratt/Getty

Donald TrumpPhoto: IPWatchdog

NBC/WSJ 5-19-16Ciruli Associates 2016

Korbel School 20169

2016: Democratic Sweep – 1964, 1974 or Stalemate?Obama’s Approval Improves

President Obama’s Approval Ratings2012-2016

Metrics

• Obama spread – (+1%)• Congressional approval – 13%• Generic ballot test – Dems 2%• Direction, right – 26%• House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30)• Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5)

Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15/16Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2016

49% 50% 50%

54%52%

49%

40%44%

48%48% 48% 47%

42% 43%47%

56%

51% 49%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Approval Disapproval

Senate Majority LeaderHarry Reid

House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi

SpeakerPaul Ryan

SenatorMitch McConnell

188 44 (2) 247 (+13) 54 (+9)

Korbel School 201610

Immigration Polarizing Two Continents:U.S., EU, German Politicians Struggle With Solutions

75%

63%

50%

59%

46%

54%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Mar. 2015 Sept. 2015 Oct. 2015 Dec. 2015 Jan. 2016 Feb. 2016

German Chancellor Angela MerkelWelcomes refugees, OpenBorders, Multi-Culturalism

Her Approval Rating Plummets in 2015

Source: Deutschlandtrend survey for AfD by Infratest Dimap,N1005, Feb. 26-27, ±3.1 percentage points

Angela Merkel

“Welcome to the Party, Pal”

Photo: YouTube

Nationalism, Nativism, Populism, Anti-Austerity


Y Para Siempre (And Forever)

National Assembly employeesremove photos of latePresident Hugo Chávez inCaracas, January 6, 2016

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Venezuelaparliamentary election,recall

Argentina electionpresidential/legislative

Brazil presidentialimpeachment

Cuba rapprochement


Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years

Denver Metro Population1960 - 2016

Seven counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson

YearDenver

Population % ChangeMetro

Population % ChangeDenver % of

Metro Population

1960 493,887 - 934,199 - 52%

1970 514,678 4 1,235,936 32 42

1980 492,365 -4 1,618,461 31 30

1990 467,610 -5 1,848,319 14 25

2000 554,636 19 2,400,570 30 23

2010 600,158 8 2,784,228 16 21

2016 682,000 14 3,077,000 10 22

Denver Drops From Half to a Fifthof Metro Population, But on Tear Today


Denver, Pueblo and ChicagoCrime, Drugs, Gangs vs. Affordable Housing, Congestion

Direction of Your Community

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Denver Pueblo Chicago

58%

29%

18%

28%

54%

75%

14% 17%

6%

Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know

Ciruli Associates 2016NYT/Kaiser 2016


Colorado Congressional RacesNational Politics Has Impact

Scott Tipton Gail Schwartz

1. Diana DeGette gets primary/feelsthe Bern

2. Jared Polis, super delegate wantsleadership

3. Scott Tipton, Gail Schwartz andDonald Trump

4. Ken Buck, Ted Cruz campaign

5. Doug Lamborn primary

6. Mike Coffman funding race withMorgan Carroll, Nancy’s last stand

7. Ed Perlmutter for governor?(Salazar, Kennedy)

Mike Coffman Morgan Carroll


Bennet is on DeckDemocrats Need to Hold the Seat in 2016

56-44

IllinoisNew HampshirePennsylvaniaOhioWisconsinNorth Carolina

Job Performance ApprovalDenver Metro Area Voters

Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016

Approve DisapproveDon’tKnow

Governor John Hickenlooper 61% 28% 11%President Barack Obama 57 38 5Senator Michael Bennet 49 26 25Senator Cory Gardner 34 35 31

Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the jobperformance of some Colorado and national politicians.[ROTATED]

• Metro area – 56% of state• 65% of Democratic vote


Republican U.S. Senate CandidatesColorado

Primary June 28, 2016Convention

Darryl Glenn

Petitions

Rob Blaha

Ryan Frazier

Jack Graham

Jon Keyser

2014 Governor Primary

Votes %

Bob Beauprez 116,773 30

Tom Tancredo 102,830 27

Scott Gessler 89,282 23

Mike Kopp 36,373 20

Total 384,747 100

2010 Senate Primary

Votes %

Ken Buck 209,638 52

Jane Norton 196,954 48

Total 406,592 100


Hickenlooper Goes to D.C.Opposite of Woe

Governor Hickenlooper’s ApprovalAmong Metro Area Partisans – 61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Democrat Unaffiliated Republican

75%68%

34%

14%18%

58%

11% 12% 8%

Approval Disapproval Don't Know

Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the job performance of someColorado and national politicians. [ROTATED]


Near end ofterm

Good atpolitics

Does he addvalue toticket?

Hart, Romer,Salazar?


Single-Payer – ColoradoCareLosing in Metro Area – 30% in Favor to 43% Against

Denver Metro AreaPartisan Support and Opposition

Self-Description

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Democrat Unaffiliated Republican

44%

31%

9%

21%

47%

71%

35%

22% 19%

Vote For Vote Against Don't Know

Q: There will be a proposal, Amendment 69, on this November’s election ballot to createColoradoCare, a single-payer government run health care system for Colorado residents,partially paid for by a $25 billion dollar increase in state taxes. Will you vote for ballotAmendment 69 or vote against it?


“Between the Clintonand establishmentwing of the party

versus the Sanders,liberal, youth wing ofthe party, there aresome real tensions

and difference and itplays out in single-

payer.” (Colorado PublicRadio, 5-16)


Environment/Gas and Oil/Local Control

Gas and oil development downfrom 2014

North Front Rangecommunities (NIMBY) lowerpriority

Gas and oil step up publicaffairs, public relations andadvertising

Where’s the money?

Environmentalism lost passionwith public – more partisan,more extreme, some wins,fewer problems

“It’s an extraordinaryamount of money forresearch and polling…”(ColoradoComplete, 5-27-16)

“You just don’t quitesense the edginess,the concern on thatissue the way you didtwo years ago.” (InsideEnergy, Corporation forPublic Broadcasting)


Clinton vs. TrumpClose, Volatile, Mean

Clinton

Primary on until June 7(longer?)

Slight unfavorabilityadvantage

Obama’s approval 50%,electoral collegeadvantage/has theestablishment

Women, minorities

Commander in Chief

Not change agent

Not trusted

Problems with youth,independents

Trump

Primary over May 26

Record-high unfavorability

Establishment barelyonboard

Politically incorrect/veryresilient

Media savvy/counterpuncher

Not ideological

Strong leader

Change agent

Anglo men, especially non-college


1972, 1992, 2002, 2014, 2016

Colorado Politics in the 1970s

1972 Olympic bid defeated 61%

1972 Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated

1972 Pat Schroeder goes to Congress

1974 Nixon resigns (August)

1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brownelected

1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976

Colorado Politics in the 2000s

OfficesAll Republican

2002All Democrat

2008Divided

2014 Results 2016

Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D Same

U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D ?

U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Same

Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D ?

Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D ?

Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R ?

President Bush 8% (2000)Bush 5% (2004)

Obama 9% Obama 5% ?

Govs. (L to R) Dick Lamm, Bill Ritter, JohnHickenlooper, Bill Owens and Roy Romer at afundraiser at the governor’s mansion on Nov. 20.Photo: Bernard Grant/The Colorado Statesman

2016: the year of the outsider - colorado counties,...

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