2016: the latino vote - cahcc...voting 1% usc dornsife / la times poll, march 2016 according to a...
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2016: THE LATINO VOTE
Mike Madrid, GrassrootsLab@madrid_mike
Latino Voter Registration in California
@madrid_mike
A Pew Research Center study released earlier this year
estimated that a lofty 44 percent of the record 27.3 million
eligible Latinos nationally are Millennials. However, their
turnout rate was over 20 points lower than the rate of the
overall voter population in 2012.
A 2015 PPIC report indicates that only 18 percent of all
registered Latino voters are considered “likely
voters.” Of this universe, a vast majority are registered
Democrats, and only 23 percent are Republican.37%
11%23%
29%
CA Latino Likely Voters
Democrat Republican Independent Other
A Snapshot of the Latino
MILITARY PARTICIPATION
Latino involvement in the US Armed Services has increased from 3% in 1985 to 13% in 2014. Currently, they
represent the 2nd largest minority among enlisted members - with African Americans comprising 18.3%.
EDUCATION POLICYLatinos tend to favor consistent school testing to gauge academic progress and an emphasis on performance
above seniority in determining teacher performance.
@madrid_mike
ENTREPRENEURSHIPSince 2007, Hispanic-owned businesses have grown
by over 3.2 million - making Latinos the fastest
growing demographic of business owners nationally.
According to Forbes, the top 5 state for Latino business
are:
Texas (16.4%)
California (15.7%)
Florida (15.7%)
New York (9.1%)
Georgia (3.0%)
PARTISANSHIP
@madrid_mike
CA Latino Voter Registration
@madrid_mike
According to a 2015 PPIC study:
“Whites make up only 43 percent of California’s adult population, but 60
percent of the state’s likely voters.”
But “Latinos comprise 34 percent of the adult (eligible voter) population, but
just 18 percent of likely voters.”
59%18%
17%
6%Latino Likely Voters
Democrat
Republican
NPP
Other
CA Democrat Registration1970 - 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Democrat Registration
@madrid_mike
Latino Republicans
In California, there are
677,431 Registered Latino
Republicans - a universe that
significantly outnumbers the
total number of Republicans
registered in a number of
states.
New Hampshire:
263,799
Iowa: 646,710
New Mexico:
367,613
Nevada:
488,608
@madrid_mike
The Rise of the Nonpartisan Voter
“…looking closer at registration by
city and by ethnicity we can see
that this growth in NPP voters…is
coming on strongly in minorityvoter communities and, like all new
registration, reflects predominantly
younger voters.
If our state voter file is seeing an
influx of millennials and minorities,
two bases of the Democratic Party,
then anything other than a swelling
of their registration numbers could
be seen as losing ground”
CA120: Voter Registration: GOP death rattle or a
missed opportunity for the Dems?
Paul Mitchell
@madrid_mike
Voting Power in CA
@madrid_mike
Non-white
Republicans –
particularly Asians
and Latinos – have
significantly more
voting power when
it comes to
selecting
presidential
delegates than the
average white
Republican voter
@madrid_mike
Republican Presidential PreferencesUSC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Kasich
Cruz
Trump
Latino Respondents
Total Unfavorable Total Favorable
Republican Presidential Preferences
Trump
26%
Cruz
34%
Kasich
4%
Other
18%
Undecided
9%
Refused
6%
Will Not Vote
3%
USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016
Latino Republican voters favor Ted
Cruz over Donald Trump by a
margin of 8 points. However, nearly
a fifth of respondents indicated a
preference for another candidate
entirely. Another 12 percent
remained either undecided or noted
that they will not participate in the
presidential election.
@madrid_mike
Trump and the Latino Voter
Favorable
23%
NA/Neutral
4%
Unfavorable
73%
USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016
@madrid_mike
Favorable
9%
NA/Neutral
4%
Unfavorable
87%
All Respondents Latino Respondents
Democrat Presidential Preferences
@madrid_mike
Clinton
51%
Sanders
37%
Other
2%
Undecide
d
8%Refused
1%
Not
Voting
1%
USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016
According to a
USC Dornsife Poll
released in
March, Latino
voters in
California favor
Hillary Clinton
over Bernie
Sanders by a
margin of 13
points.
20162008
Clinton
67%
Obama
32%
Other
1%A 2008 Pew
Hispanic Center
Report recorded
that Hillary
overwhelmingly
won the Latino
vote in that
year’s primary –
by a margin of
over 2 to 1.
REPRESENTATION
@madrid_mike
Latino Elected Representation
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
School Board
City Council
County Supervisor
Assembly
Senate
@madrid_mike
Latinos are
consistently and
significantly
underrepresented at
every level of
government
Latino Elected RepresentationSchool Board Representation & Gender Split
52%48%
51%49%
Male
Female
13 percent of
elected K-12
School Board
Members are
Latino
Latino School
Board Members
Non- Latino School
Board Members
@madrid_mike
A LATINO BETWEEN THE AGES OF 18 – 24 IS MORE LIKELY TO
BE ARRESTED THAN TO VOTE
@madrid_mike
Socio-Economic Decline in Los Angeles County
In comparing the Per Capita
Personal Income over the
last 50 years, San
Francisco’s numbers have
increased at a much higher
rate than Los Angeles,
resulting in Los Angeles’
swift decline rank among
other US Cities.
While voting has dropped
among all income levels,
among the poor it has
completely collapsed.
@madrid_mike
Participation Decline in Los Angeles County
68.0%
55.2%
58.6%
31.0%
1978 1990 1994 2014
Los Angeles Voter
Turnout
This steep decline in per capita income – and
resulting increase in poverty levels – is
commensurate with a plummeting rate of voter
participation, which is less than half the rate it
was 40 years ago.
When Jerry Brown first ran for election in 1978,
2,122,733 voters in Los Angeles County turned
out to cast a vote. When he ran for reelection in
2014, only 1,518,835 voters turned out.
In the 36-year interim, the total population of the
county increased by over 33% - from 7.352
million to nearly 9.82 million – but saw voter
participation plummet by over 28%.
2,122,733
Voters
1,518,835
Voters
@madrid_mike
LATINOS COMPRISE LESS THAN 5% OF THE HIGH TECH
WORKFORCEThe fastest growing and most dynamic sector of the economy is completely void of the fastest
growing and most dynamic sector of the population
@madrid_mike
THE ROOT CAUSE OF
LOWER VOTER TURNOUT
@madrid_mike
Economic Prosperity
HOME OWNERSHIP
UNEMPLOYMENT
Fewer than half—46 percent—of Latino households are owner-
occupied. In comparison, 57 percent of all California
households statewide are owner-occupied.
Latino unemployment rates lag
the general population in
nearly every county in
California. On average, Latino
unemployment is 1.8 percent
higher across the state’s 58
counties.
@madrid_mike
A Closer Look: Los Angeles County
Of the 37 counties in California with a Latino Population above 20%,
Los Angeles County ranks:
5th highest in Latino local elected representation, but…
15th in Unemployment at 12.4%
23rd in Poverty at 23.2%
23rd High School Dropout Rate with 3.7%, tied with Solano, Fresno, Kings, Kern Counties.
24th in Registered Voter Turnout with 59.6%
30th in Home Ownership at 38.7%
@madrid_mike
QUESTIONS?Mike Madrid, GrassrootsLab
@madrid_mike