2016 sustainable energy in america - bcse€¦ · the emphasis of this 2016 edition is to capture...
TRANSCRIPT
No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg Finance L.P. and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg Finance L.P. and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
2016
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN AMERICA Factbook
GET THE FACTS www.bcse.org
1
About the Factbook (1 of 2): What is it and what’s new
• Aims to augment existing, reputable sources of information on US energy
• Focuses on renewables, efficiency, natural gas
• Fills important data gaps in certain areas (eg, investment flows by sector, contribution of distributed energy)
• Contains data through the end of 2015 wherever possible
• Employs Bloomberg New Energy Finance data in most cases, augmented by EIA, FERC, ACEEE, ICF International, LBNL,
and other sources where necessary
• Contains the very latest information on new energy technology costs
• Has been graciously underwritten by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy
• Is in its fourth edition (first published in January 2013)
What is it?
• Format: This year’s edition of the Factbook (this document) consists of Powerpoint slides showing updated charts. For those
looking for more context on any sector, the 2014 edition(1) can continue to serve as a reference. The emphasis of this 2016
edition is to capture new developments that occurred in the past year.
• Updated analysis: Most charts have been extended by one year to capture the latest data.
• 2015 developments: The text in the slides highlights major changes that occurred over the past year.
• New coverage: This report contains data shown for the first time in the Factbook, including analyses of US levelized costs of
electricity, corporate renewables procurement, US transmission build, small-scale CHP generation and additional energy
efficiency data.
What’s new?
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
(1) The 2014 Factbook can be found here: http://www.bcse.org/factbook/pdfs/2014%20Sustainable%20Energy%20in%20America%20Factbook.pdf
2
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SU
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INA
BL
E
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GY
(as
de
fin
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in
th
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rep
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)
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
FOSSIL-
FIRED /
NUCLEAR
POWER
DISTRIBUTED POWER,
STORAGE, EFFICIENCY
TRANSPORT
• Solar
• Wind
• Geothermal
• Hydro
• Biomass
• Biogas
• Waste-to-energy
• Natural gas
• CCS
• Small-scale renewables
• CHP and WHP
• Fuel cells
• Storage
• Smart grid / demand response
• Building efficiency
• Industrial efficiency (aluminum)
• Direct use applications for natural gas
• Electric vehicles
(including hybrids)
• Natural gas vehicles
• Biofuels
• Wave / tidal • Nuclear
• Lighting
• Industrial efficiency (other industries)
About the Factbook (2 of 2): Understanding terminology for this report
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
3
Roadmap
US ENERGY IN TRANSITION
AN ERA OF LOW ENERGY PRICES
2015: A YEAR OF MILESTONES
OUTLOOK
WRAP-UP
2015: A YEAR OF MILESTONES
5 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg Terminal
Notes: Values for 2015 energy consumption are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September 2015). GDP is real and chained (2009 dollars); annual growth rate for
GDP for 2015 is based on consensus of economic forecasts gathered on the Bloomberg Terminal as of January 2016.
US energy overview: Economy’s energy productivity GDP and primary energy consumption (indexed to 1990 levels)
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
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1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
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GDP (indexed) Primary energy consumption (indexed)
● US GDP expanded 83% over the last 25 years; energy consumption only ticked up 17%.
6 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: CEE, ACEEE, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Financing: US utility energy efficiency spending and budgets ($bn)
1.6
2.22.6
3.0
3.9
4.7 4.8 5.0
6.2budget
0.3
0.30.6
0.8
0.8
1.0 1.1 1.1
1.4budget
1.9
2.5
3.2
3.8
4.7
5.76.0 6.1
7.6budget
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Naturalgas
Electric
● From 2006 to 2011, US utility expenditure for energy efficiency grew 25% per year.
● The budgeted amount for 2014 would represent a 25% growth between 2013 and 2014.
7 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Deployment: US natural gas production and gas-directed rig count (Bcfd, rigs)
Production (Bcfd) Number of rigs
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, Baker Hughes. Data up through the latest comprehensive numbers available (September 2015).
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shale Other lower 48 Rigs
● Natural gas production in 2015 was up 7% from 2014 levels, 26% from 2007 levels.
● Technological improvements and drilling in “sweet spots” has improved productivity.
8 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
1 1 3
9
6 4
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5 6
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1 2 0
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2002
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201
0
2011
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201
7
201
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9
202
0
EIA retired EIA announced
Policy: US coal power plant retirements completed and announced by year (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: “Retirements” does not include conversions from coal to natural gas or biomass; retirement numbers through end-October 2015.
● 11GW going coal-fired plants retired through October 2015, with another 3GW of retirements
scheduled through end of year.
9 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Deployment: US solar PV build
US utility-scale photovoltaic build (GW) US small-scale photovoltaic build (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Incremental Cumulative Incremental Cumulative
0.10.3
0.9
1.9
3.2
4.14.4
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Th
ou
san
ds
Th
ou
san
ds Cumulative capacity
(right-axis)
0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2
0.4 0.60.8
1.2
1.7
0
4
8
12
0
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Th
ou
san
ds
Residential Commercial
Cumulative capacity(right-axis)
● The US set records in 2015 in utility-scale, residential and commercial build in solar PV.
US ENERGY IN TRANSITION
11 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: Numbers include utility-scale (>1MW) projects of all types, rooftop solar, and small- and medium-sized wind.
US energy overview: Renewable energy capacity build by technology (GW)
9.210.2
4.76.7
14.0
0.7
5.1
8.5
0.30.4
0.9
2.3
3.3
5.1
7.4
7.3
9.9
11.2
5.9
9.5
18.2
7.0
13.0
16.4
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass, biogas, waste-to-energy
Solar
Wind
12 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
241 249 269 255313
271 264 253 239
105126
144 167
194218 254 289 306346
375413 422
507 490517
542 545
0
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Otherrenewables
Hydropower
US energy overview: Renewable energy generation by technology
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Notes: Values for 2015 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2015). Includes net energy consumption by pumped hydropower storage facilities. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Beginning in 2014, numbers include estimated generation from distributed solar; generation from other distributed resources are not included.
US renewable generation by technology
(including hydropower) (TWh)
US non-hydropower renewable generation by
technology (TWh)
34 55 74 95120 141
168 182 185
11
11
24
927 39
5655
5456
5758
61
6464
1515
1515
1516
16
1617
105126
144167
194218
254
289306
0
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7
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Geothermal
Biomass, biogas,waste-to-energy
Solar
Wind
13 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
US energy overview: US electricity generation by fuel type (%)
Source: EIA
Notes: Values for 2015 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2015). In chart at left, contribution from ‘Other’ is not shown; the amount is minimal and consists of miscellaneous
technologies including hydrogen and non-renewable waste. The hydropower portion of ‘Renewables’ includes negative generation from pumped storage.
49% 48% 44% 45% 42%37% 39% 39%
34%
2% 1%1% 1%
1%1% 1% 1%
1%
19% 20%20% 20%
19%19% 19% 19%
19%
22% 22%24% 24%
25%31% 28% 28% 32%
8% 9% 11% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
200
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Renewables (includinghydro)
Natural gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
14 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA
Notes: Values for 2015 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September 2015).
US energy overview: Greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector (MtCO2e)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
GHG emissions from power sector, 1990-2015e
CPP target, 2030
1995 levels
● Power-sector emissions are 18% below 2005 levels and the lowest since 1995.
15 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Global context: US-related causes and implications of falling oil prices
US gasoline consumption (bn gallons per year) US average fuel-economy rating (weighted by
sales) of purchased new vehicles (MPG)
Source: EIA
Notes: Analysis is based on daily averages of ‘total gasoline all sales / deliveries by prime supplier’.
Values for 2015 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA
(data available through October 2015).
Source: UMTRI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: Relies on combined city/highway EPA fuel economy ratings.
110
115
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1996
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25
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Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15
● Gasoline consumption increased 4% in 2015 but is still 4.6% below the 2005 peak
● Fuel-economy of new vehicles is 22% above 2008 levels
16 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: PHEV is “plug in hybrid electric vehicle”, HEV is “hybrid electric vehicle”
Deployment: US hybrid electric vehicle sales
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
30
60
90
120
150
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015
PHEV HEV
HEV share in new sales PHEV share in new sales
1,000 units Share (%)
● PHEV sales collapsed 24%, and HEV sales declined 16% in 2015
17 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Deployment: US battery electric vehicle sales
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015
BEV BEV share in new sales
1,000 units Share (%)
● BEV sales were resilient, climbing 16% in 2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: BEV is “battery electric vehicle”
AN ERA OF LOW PRICES
19 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
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Jul 2014
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15
Economics: Cost of generating electricity in the US from natural gas vs coal ($/MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: Assumes heat rates of 7,410Btu/kWh for CCGT and 10,360Btu/kWh for coal (both are fleet-wide generation-weighted medians); variable O&M of $3.15/MWh for CCGT and $4.25/MWh for coal.
Gas price used is Henry Hub. CCGT stands for a combined-cycle gas turbine. CAPP represents Appalachian coal prices.
Gas (CCGT)
Coal
(CAPP)
20 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC EQR, public disclosures and analyst estimates
Notes: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation.
Economics: US utility-scale solar PPA prices by signing date, 2008-H1 2015 ($/MWh)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
300MW
100MW
0
50
100
150
200ERCOT Southwest California Northwest MISO SPP Southeast
● Prices for long-term contracts for utility-scale PV continue to decline, reaching $40-60/MWh range
21 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC EQR, public disclosures and analyst estimates
Notes: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation.
Economics: US onshore wind PPA prices by signing date, relative to wholesale power prices, 2006-2014 ($/MWh)
MISO
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SPP
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
● Prices for long-term contracts for wind are also falling, and are below wholesale power prices in some
regions of the country
22 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, Bloomberg Terminal Notes: Data through end-November 2015. Wholesale prices taken from proxy power hubs in each ISO. Prices are in real 2014 dollars.
US energy overview: Retail and wholesale power prices
Average retail power prices ($/MWh) Wholesale power prices ($/MWh)
0
20
40
60
80
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120
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5
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NYISO
ISONE
CAISO
PJM
MISO
ERCOT
Northwest
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201
4
2015
New York
NewEnglandCalifornia
PJM
MISO
ERCOT
Northwest
Florida
Southwest
Southeast
● Retail power prices in most regions remain well below the peak prices seen in 2008-09.
● In 2015, retail electricity rates fell by 1.3% on average nationwide.
OUTLOOK
24 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
11 1735 41 44 36 48 64 55 48 52 563 911
17 26 4044
52 67 6894
111
62
88
128
175
206 207
274
318297
272
316 329
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other EMEA
Other APAC
Other AMER
Europe
Brazil
India
China
United States
Total
Global context: Total new investment in clean energy by country or region ($bn)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: For definition of clean energy, see slide in Section 2.2 of this report titled ‘Finance: US clean energy investment (1 of 2) – total new investment, all asset classes ($bn)’ . AMER is Americas; APAC is Asia-Pacific; EMEA is Europe, Middle East, and Africa.
● Clean energy investment climbed 8% in the US in 2015.
● The US currently makes up 17% of global investment in clean energy.
25
Policy: Federal support of clean energy
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
● At the end of 2015, Congress enacted major subsidy extensions for clean energy projects.
● The Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind projects was extended through the end of 2019. The
credit is $23/MWh for projects beginning construction in 2015 and 2016, then steps down through
2019.
● The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar projects was extended and now applies to projects
beginning construction before 2022. The credit begins at 30% for projects breaking ground before
2020, then steps down gradually to 10%.
● Extensions were also granted for the production of second-generation biofuels and energy from
geothermal, biomass and landfill gas, hydroelectric projects and ocean energy; however, the
majority of these technologies received extensions of only two years, compared to five year for
wind and solar.
● Deductions and credits were extended for energy efficiency building improvements and the
construction of efficient homes.
26
Policy: EPA Clean Power Plan
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, based on analysis of EPA Clean Power Plan
Notes: Darker colors indicate deeper emissions cuts. Yellow states may actually increase their overall emissions, while remaining in compliance with the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. Data is not available for Alaska and Hawaii; Vermont
and DC are not covered by the EPA’s regulations. Data is based on EPA modelling and EPA historical emissions inventories.
Emissions reductions
required by the Clean
Power Plan between
2012 and 2030, under
mass-based
compliance
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
-25%AL
AK
-25%AZ -30%
AR
-3%CA
-31%CO
+4% CT
DC
-15% DE
-16%FL
-26%GA
HI
+4%ID
-35%IL
-31%IN
-34%IA
-37%KS
-32%KY
-20%LA
+0%ME
-29% MD
-8% MA-32%MI
-35%MN
-8%MS
-29%MO
-41%MT
-33%NE
-13%NV
-14%NH
-14% NJ
-28%NM
-10%NY
-24%NC
-38%ND
-28%OH
-23%OK
-10%OR
-25%PA
-6% RI
-28%SC
-31%SD
-32% TN
-25%TX
-26%UT
VT
-23%VA
-30%WA
-29%WV
-34%WI-37%
WY
-26.4%US
AL AZ CA CT DE GA ID IN KS LA MD MI MS MT NV NJ NY ND OK PA SC TN UT VA WV WY● EPA finalized the Clean Power Plan (CPP) in August 2015
● The Plan could cut power-sector emissions 32% from 2005 levels by 2030.
27
Policy: State policy barriers to net energy metering erected in 2015
New or higher monthly charges
Reduced REC value
Cap on qualifying generation
Multiple barriers
MA: NEM generation cap
reached.
VT: State law changed
default owner of RECs from
generator to utility.
WI: Regulators
approved monthly
demand-charge
on NEM with
“intermittent
generation.”
MN: State policy now
allows publicly owned
utilities to charge new NEM
customers a "reasonable
and appropriate" fee.
RI: State law requires regulators
to consider net metering’s impact
on cost allocation in future rates.
WV: State law prohibits intra-class cross-
subsidies.
OK: Regulators considering
utility proposal for a demand
charge on NEM customers.
TX: El Paso Electric proposed a
monthly demand charge for
NEM customers.
AZ: Regulators approved
monthly charges on NEM
customers.
CA: Regulators proposed
fees and monthly charges
on new NEM customers.
NV: Regulators approved
monthly charges and
payment cuts on NEM
customers.
Pending barriers
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
28
Policy: US emissions pledge in Paris
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Net emissions(Scenario 1)
Net emissions(Scenario 2)
2005 emissions
2025 emissions target(26% below 2005)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA, US Department of State Notes: Net GHG emissions include total emissions less sequestration. Full data only available through 2013. Scenarios 1 and 2 show two trajectories for US emissions growth,
based on a combination of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts and EPA, EIA and US Department of State analyses. Both scenarios use BNEF’s forecast for US power-sector emissions, assuming full compliance with the EPA Clean Power
Plan. Both scenarios assume transportation growth as per the EIA’s AEO2015 reference case and assuming existing CAFE standards. Scenario 1 assumes residential, commercial and industrial sectors’ energy growth as per the EIA AEO2015 reference case;
and agricultural, waste and forestry and land use sectors’ growth as per the 2014 US Climate Action report. Scenario 2 assumes the historical decline rate for the residential and commercial sectors; assumes the industrial, agricultural and waste sectors’
emissions level remain constant from 2013; and assumes forestry and land use emissions follow the “high sequestration case” in the 2014 US Climate Action report.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
● The US pledge in Paris was to reduce emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
● 2013 emissions were 10% below 2005 levels.
WRAP-UP
4 November 2014
30 © Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2016. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Wrap-up
● 2015 was a watershed year for sustainable energy in the US:
˗ GDP grew 2.4%, while energy consumption grew only 0.1%
˗ Record natural gas production and consumption
˗ Record coal retirements (14GW+)
˗ Record solar PV build (7.3GW)
● These changes are signs of a permanent shift:
˗ Natural gas has been displacing coal within the power sector
˗ Renewables (excluding hydro) provided 7.4% of power, up from 2.2% in 2005
˗ Power sector emissions 18% below 2005 levels
˗ Hybrid vehicle sales fell and gasoline consumption rose, but long-term trend still positive
● Meanwhile, energy prices remain low:
˗ Natural gas prices hit lowest levels since 1999, allowing gas to outcompete coal
˗ Solar, wind costs continue to decline
˗ Retail power prices 6% below 2008 peak
● And the outlook is strong:
˗ US remains key destination for clean energy investment
˗ Critical policy developments (Paris, Clean Power Plan, tax credit extensions)
31
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The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or
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