2016 october grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through October 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program Profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition IPEDS+

Gray’s Program Evaluation System is available as a SaaS solution.

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1.  Inquiry and Conversion Trends:

1.  National

2.  Online and On-Campus

3.  Degree and Channel

2.  Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:

1.  City and Program

2.  Job Postings Trends

3.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016. §  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. §  We add between 700,000 to 1 million qualified inquires to the dataset each month. Introduce how to read

chart: years and colors

Report Monthly to account for seasonality

0.00

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,200,000.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016




Inquiries have decreased an average of 9% year-over-year in 2016.

0.00

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,200,000.00



2014 2015 2016 •  Big declines were

earlier in the year.

•  August and September were closer to last year’s results. -9%




After improving in August and September, October, inquiry volumes decreased 11%.

5% is a little worse than last month’s 1% decline, but better than this year’s average 8% decline.

0.00

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,200,000.00



2014 2015 2016

-11% YoY



Branded Inquiries

After 4 straight months of double-digit growth rates, branded inquiries are up only 4%. §  This is the sixth consecutive month of growth in branded inquiries for higher education programs. §  The average monthly growth rate for branded inquiries in 2016 is 8%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

+4% YoY

Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name

There is an critical implication: if Branded inquiries become more prevalent, awareness and preference for your brand will increase in importance.

But, most institutions do not have the budget to support brand marketing. This trend may favor

1.  bigger schools with stronger brands, and more ability to fund brand marketing and football teams.

2.  Schools with well-defined niches in which they are well-known and well-regarded.



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries in higher education have dropped an astonishing monthly average of 14.6% in 2016. §  In October, external inquiries fell 15.5%.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.

14.6%

-15.5% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 1% and as much as 22%.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+11%

+22%

+1%

Explain Conversion Rates: schools

have many definitions of a

conversion, so in our data a conversion includes: an

application, an enrollment, or a

start.



80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels. §  Q3 2016 is not fully matured and is already greater than last quarter and 7% above the Q1 2014 level. §  Rates may be stabilizing 5-10% above our baseline.


2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+7%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For July inquiries, total conversions fell 20% year-over-year. §  In our analysis, inquiries are converting more slowly than in prior years.

─  For example, last month, June conversions improved from a 13% to 12% decline.

§  Over time, conversions in September and October have the potential to reach 2015 levels.


Immature Months1

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Explain Conversion Timing: Conversions are counted in the month in which the original inquiry is received. If a June inquiry converts I August, it is counted as a June Conversion.

Typically, inquires take 13 months to mature (or reach their maximum conversion rate.

More recently, conversions are taking longer, sometimes 5-6 months after the inquiry.

-20% YoY



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.15 $44.82 $- $-

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The average price of an External inquiry has been fairly stable August. §  So far in 2016, the average price for paid inquiries rose just 2% year-over-year. §  February of 2016 ($45.91) remains the highest average price since January of 2014.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

-0.2%



Agenda


1.  National






3.  Summary



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.

-0.3%



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change After three consecutive months of growth, inquiries for online programs fell 4% to start the 4th quarter. §  October marks the first month of year-over-year decline since June of 2016. §  October of 2015 grew a whopping 45%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-4% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs declined 13% in July, but will improve. §  Conversions are taking longer, rising from three months to five or six. §  August has already surpassed year-ago levels with another month to mature.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

-13% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

The negative trend for on-campus academic programs in higher education continues.

§  The first ten months of 2016 have fallen short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%. §  In October, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 18% year-over-year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-18% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 6% YoY in July. §  June has surpassed year-ago levels. §  September and October have a chance beat last year.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-6% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda


1.  National






3.  Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing degree. §  Unlike last month, we have another growing degree, undergraduate certificates. §  Surprisingly, other higher-level degrees (Doctor’s and Master’s) are on the decline.

-14%

-9%

-8%

-7%

1%

73%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctoral degree

Associate's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (August through October)



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Affiliate – PPC is the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. §  Seven different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-65% -43%

-35% -30%

-24% -17%

5% 6%

15% 17%

24% 40%

67% 76%

266%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Email: Branded PPL: External Display: Branded Interactive: Branded Referral: Branded PPC: Branded Affiliate: External Organic: Branded Website: Branded Offline Media: Branded All Other Internal: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Social Media: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(August through October YoY)



Agenda


1.  National






3.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: October Growth

Inquiries for all of the Big Five programs shrank more than 10% in October. §  Registered Nursing performed the best, but still dropped 14% §  Criminal Justice/Police Science was not far behind, decreasing 15%. §  Medical Assistant continued to drop, down 19%. §  The two business programs continued to be the worst, both dropping more than 30%.

-14% -15% -19%

-32% -36% -40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Business Admin: Associate's -

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



-35%

35% 29%

-29%

467%

266%

147% 129% 103%

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

Human Services Counseling Psychology

Cosmetology Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Health Services Administration

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 100%. §  At nearly over 460%, Public Administration grew the fastest. §  Cosmetology is the only repeat from last month.

1.  Includes the top 75 programs in inquiry volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Philadelphia is the only city in The Big 5 that grew year-over-year. §  Student inquiries in New York declined 8% compared to October 2015. §  Los Angeles had the largest decline–a drop of 35%.

-17% -18% -14% -13%

-23%

2%

-8%

-25% -26%

-35% -40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries


Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Agenda


1.  National






3.  Summary



2%

13%

18%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Bachelor's

Master's

Associate's

Doctorate

National Quarterly Change in New Job Postings 2016/2015 (August through October)

National New Job Postings by Degree – Trailing Three Months1

In the past 3 months, all new job postings requiring a degree grew year-over-year. §  Compared to last year, job postings that require a Doctoral degree grew 60%. §  Job postings for Bachelor’s degrees grew the least, just 2%.

1.  Excludes Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.



New Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities1

Two of the five cities with highest number of job postings grew year-over-year in 2016. §  New York grew in both 2015 and 2016. §  Seattle popped up 41% in 2016. §  Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta declined 4-6%.

11%

-3%

7%

-15%

16% 13%

-4%

41%

-4% -6%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

New York, NY Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Houston, TX Atlanta, GA

Largest Five Cities for New Job Postings August through October Year-over-Year Results





New Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations in Nation1,2

Once again, in the past 3 months, Registered Nursing had the most new job postings in the country.

§  Half of the top ten occupations involve some form of computer systems or IT. §  In this time period, the 10 largest occupations made up 31% of the total new job postings.

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Registered Nurses

Computer Occupations, All Other

Software Developers, Applications

Marketing Managers

Computer Systems Analysts

Accountants and Auditors

Medical and Health Services Managers

Computer User Support Specialists

Management Analysts

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Aug-Oct 2016) Ten Largest Occupations in Nation

1.  Includes only the occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation1,2

The fastest-growing occupations are generally in the healthcare industry.

§  Seven of the ten fastest-growing occupations are related to healthcare.

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Psychiatrists

Internists, General

Surgeons

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

Family and General Practitioners

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other

Nurse Practitioners

Physical Therapists

Speech-Language Pathologists

Physician Assistants

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Aug-Oct 2016) Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation

1.  Includes only the 100 largest occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Hard Skills in Nation1,2

Nationally, the most requested hard skill for jobs requiring a degree was quality assurance.

§  Programming languages such as SQL, Java, and JavaScript are among the most requested hard skills. §  Despite the size and growth of health occupations, only Pediatrics made the top ten skills.

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Quality Assurance

SQL

Java

Pediatrics

Technical support

Linux

Customer relationship management

Bilingual

Quality control

JavaScript

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Aug-Oct 2016) Ten Most-Requested Hard Skills in the US





New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Hard Skills in the US1,2

The fastest growing hard skills are generally in computer science or allied health.

§  D Language, a new hard skill on our list, grew over 2,600% year-over-year. §  Despite a similarity in industries last month, 7 of the ten fastest growing hard skills are new this period.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

D Language

Critical care

Systems Integration

Cyber security

DevOps

Public accounting

User Experience design

Python

Pediatrics

Cloud Computing

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Aug-Oct 2016) Ten Fastest-Growing Hard Skills Nationwide

2,615%

1.  Includes only the 100 largest hard skills in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US1,2

Nationally, Certified RN was the the most requested certification.

§  Almost all the most requested certifications were related to an allied health occupation. §  Government Security Clearances are often among the top 10 certifications.

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Certified Registered Nurse

Basic Life Support

Certification in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Advanced Cardiac Life Support

Continuing Education

Secret Clearance

Licensed Practical Nurse

Accounting

Occupational Safety & Health Administration

Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US August-October 2016





New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Certifications in the US1,2

Like the 10 largest certifications, the fastest-growing certifications are generally from jobs in healthcare.

§  Unlike last month, no security clearance certifications showed up this month. §  All the remaining certifications were related to a nursing or other healthcare occupation.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

American Academy of Nurse Practitioners

Psychiatry

Family Medicine

Pharmacy Technician

Certification in General Surgery

Early Childhood Education

Family Physician / Internal Medicine (FP/IM)

Accredited Purchasing Practitioner

Medical License

American Nurses Credentialing Center

Ten Fastest-Growing Certifications Nationally August-October 2016

1.  Includes only the 100 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




Agenda


1.  National






3.  New Ed – Inform to Empower

4.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

After two strong months, October generally underperformed. §  Inquiry volumes fell 11%.

§  Branded inquiries continued to grow, but Online inquiries shrank.

§  Inquiries are converting much later than in past years.

§  Conversion rates are getting better. Q3 is already higher than Q2.

§  Average inquiry prices were flat.

§  Growth rates for Certificate programs outperformed higher degrees.

§  Affiliate PPC was the fastest growing channel, followed by Social.

§  Healthcare and software are large and fast-growing fields for jobs.

§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. -  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market -  What careers to focus on ─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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