No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

In terms of business, 2016 was a very dynamic year. Sales over a rolling twelve month period rose progressively, reaching in the summer of 2016 levels as high as the previous peaks of 2006 and the start of 2012. An estimated 843,000 transactions were made over the last twelve months, up 9% year on year (see graph).

Market conditions were driven by several factors: attractive interest rates, relative price stability in the major towns, the success of the Pinel scheme for investors in new homes, and interest-free loans.

The first observation, a crucial one in terms of market resilience, stems from stronger property purchasing power linked to creditworthiness generated by the correlated fall in rates and prices.

Between 2008 and 2016, property purchasing power in France climbed 29%. According to a study by Crédit Foncier, in eight years, monthly payments of the French fell by 22%, a saving of 140 euros per month, and their creditworthiness rose 35%.

These very low rates therefore enabled many French people to increase their budget for an equivalent monthly effort

and this led notably to a significant return of first-time buyers.

According to statistics drawn up by the Bank of France and corroborated by the National Institute of Statistics & Economic Studies (Insee), the number of home loans granted continued to rise in the final quarter of 2016, particularly on account of attractive borrowing rates and the number of renegotiations, which remained strong.

On the back of these low rates, sales volumes rose (+29% between Feb. 2013 and Oct. 2016, see graph).

With regard to property prices, the trend noted at the start of 2016 was therefore confirmed in the third quarter of 2016, with prices of second-

hand properties in France increasing compared with the second quarter (+1.1% in provisional seasonally-adjusted data) according to the Notaires de France - Insee index. Prices of apartments still rose (+0.8%, after +0.4%), and house prices, which fluctuate more, bounced back (+1.3%, after -0.4% in the second quarter, and +0.7% in the first).

Thus, for the third consecutive quarter, property prices rose year on year: +1.6% compared with the third quarter of 2015, a more significant increase than the previous quarter (+0.6%). This rise was more marked for houses (+1,8%) than for apartments (+1.3%).

This upward trend was generalised both in Greater Paris and in the French provinces.

DefinitionsSeasonally-adjusted pricesIn the same way that the calculation of the indexes makes it possible to strip out structural effects, seasonal corrections are intended to adjust seasonal fluctuations. The purpose is to ensure a fair comparison of trends between two consecutive quarters, without this interpretation being distorted by the time of year. For example, property prices (particularly for houses) rise during the third quarter of each year, due to demand from families driven by the school year.

Median pricesThe INSEE and Notary indexes are available only for those geographical regions where the number of transactions is sufficiently high. At more detailed levels, median prices are used. The median price is the price at which 50% of transactions have been concluded at a lower price and 50% at a higher price. It more accurately represents the "midpoint" of the market than the average, as it is less affected by extreme values.

INSEE and Notary IndexesThe calculation method used for the INSEE and Notary indexes is based on econometric models which break down the price of a property according to its main characteristics (location, size, comfort, etc.) in order to be better able to withstand structural effects that cause transaction prices to vary from quarter to quarter.

VARIATION IN INSEE AND NOTARY INDEXES*

* Three-month variation (seasonally adjusted): Trend between the 2nd and 3rd quarters 2016 One-year variation: Trend between the 3rd quarter 2015 and the 3rd quarter 2016

(Base 100 in 1st quarter 2010)

SECOND-HAND PROPERTIES OLDER APARTMENTS OLDER HOUSES

3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year

Mainland France 1.1% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8%

Greater Paris 0.9% 2.2% 1.2% 2.6% 0.2% 1.2%

French provinces 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9%

2016: A DYNAMIC YEAR

Contact: Training and Development Department, Conseil supérieur du notariat

Editorial committee: Marie-Pierre Péré, Thierry Delesalle, Thierry Thomas, Christine Rey Du Boissieu, Caroline Gaffet, François Proost

Publication Director: Isabelle Mariano

Published by: Conseil supérieur du notariat 60, boulevard de La Tour-Maubourg - 75007 Paris Tel.: + 33 (0)1 44 90 30 00 - www.notaires.fr

Created by: Publi.not - Florence Ganivet

Page layout, printing: Groupe Drouin Maître Imprimeur

+33 (0)4 73 26 44 50

ISSN: 2100-241X - Photo credits: Fotolia - Phovoir

*Change in projected indicators based on pre-contractsin Mainland France: projection at end of February 2017.

Older apartments

Olderhouses

Change 3 months* 1.2% 2.3%

Change 1 year* 4.5% 5.7%

LATEST TRENDS

The mountain properties market posts mixed results

500 000

550 000

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850 000

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dec

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june

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aug. 09 : 564 000

feb. 13: 652 000

feb. 15: 691 000

oct. 16 : 843 000 feb. 12: 834 000

Like the national market, the market for older apartments in the ski resorts of Savoie and Haute-Savoie yielded lukewarm results: half the resorts reported rising prices, particularly in the resorts of the 3 Vallées (Courchevel, Méribel and Les Ménuires / Val-Thorens) and of Skipass-Mont-Blanc (Les Houches and Chamonix Mont-Blanc). Conversely, one third of the resorts saw their prices decrease, particularly at Tignes-le-lac (-5.8%), La Clusaz (-2.4%), Grand-Bornand (-5.6%) and Gets (-7.3%).

In Tignes-le-lac, this decrease may be accounted for by the fact that this is related to the ageing part of the resort. Furthermore, it may be noted that, overall, Tignes prices continued to rise and all the more so as the resort is ever more attractive on account of the lack of snow (see summer skiing on the glacier).

In terms of prices, Megève and Val-d’Isère were the most expensive, €7,620 and €7,970 respectively per sq.m.

Due to unreliable weather over recent years and a lack of snow in the lowest resorts, high-altitude resorts were booming, with record occupancy rates as early as the first week of the New Year and throughout the winter season. This high occupancy rate does in fact offer a good rental return, which is highly attractive for investors, and this can explain the upward trend in prices. Attention is also drawn to the quality upgrading of numerous resorts such as Val-Thorens, Les Ménuires or Les Arcs, with 5-star luxury hotels and tourist homes opening up there.

Lastly, non-residents accounted for 18% of buyers on this market, a stable proportion year on year. The majority were English (45%), followed by French (15%), Belgians (12%) and Swiss (6%).

Saint-Gervais 3 220 € / -1,5%

Les Houches 4 500 € / +4,4% La Clusaz 6 170 € / -2,4%

La Plagne 3 120 € / +2,3%

Les Arcs 1800 3 770 € / +2,2%

Tignes-le-Lac 3 840 € / -5,8%

Val-d’Isère village 7 970 € / -0,7%

Valloire 4 210 € / +2,3%

Méribel-Mottaret 6 650 € / +6,6%

Val-Thorens 4 100 € / +3,4%

Le Grand-Bornand 4 470 € / -5,6%

Morzine 4 990 € / -1% Les Gets 5 330 € / -7,3%

Chamonix Mont-Blanc 5 760 € / +5,5%

Megève 7 620 € / +16,4%

Les Ménuires 3 880 € / +7,5%

Val Claret 4 580 € / +7,1%

Châtel 4 040 € / +13,4%

Arâche 3 360 € / -3,9%

Samoëns 4 020 € / +12,6%

Praz-sur-Arly 3 420 € / -9,9%

Le Corbier 1 640 € / -6,5%

Les Contamines-Montjoie 3 380 € +0,5%

Thollon-les-Mémises 2 400 € / -6,3%

Annual price change per sq. m.

Less than -2%

From -2% to 2%

More than 2%Source : Property databases of Notaires de France

a mixed market for the two Savoie departmentsMedian price per sq.m. for older apartments

Trend over one year: 1 october 2015 to 30 September 2016/1 october 2014 to 30 September 2015

Visitwww.notaires.fr to view all our reports on the current property market

No. 34 - JaNuary 2017No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

Change in the number of sales for 2000-2006

annual change in sale price Less than -2% From -2% to 2% More than 2%

Source: Property databases of Notaires de France(The prices for Greater Paris are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indexes for the 3rd quarter of 2016)

MEDIAN SALE pRICE OF OLDER HOUSES IN THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2016

Trend over one year: 1 July 2016 to 30 September 2016/1 July 2015 to 30 September 2015The statistics for houses concern the whole urban area (town centre + suburbs)

Rouen€165,700

-1.4%

Reims€215,000

-0.5%

Lille€188,500

-0.8%

Brest€173,800

4.7%

Nantes€265,000

6.0%

Poitiers€166,000

7.1%

Bordeaux€287,500

6.5%

Angers€210,100

1.9%

Montauban€182,100

-0.5%

Toulouse€281,600

3.8%Montpellier€288,500

-9.9%

Marseille/ Aix-en-Provence

€313,000-0.4%

Orleans€200,000

1.5%

Toulon€343,600

2.7%

Tours€212,900

1.4%

Chartres€207,500

12.2%

Lyon€320,100

2.3%

Le Havre€160,000

-4.5%

Grenoble€333,500

-0.6%

Saint-Étienne€180,500

-3.0%

Metz€188,600

0.9%

Nancy€175,500

4.2%Troyes

€150,000-6.3%

Réunion€196,800

-4.0%

Châteauroux€100,000

-13.4%

Greater Paris€298,900

1.2%

Caen€216,000

15.5%

Dijon€221,000

3.4%

Limoges€139,300

-2.1%

Amiens€150,600

-8.8%

Nimes€205,000

3.3%

However, these price increases were far from being homogeneous.

Indeed, there are several markets, depending on whether you are in Paris, in the vibrant towns of the French provinces or in the peri-urban or rural sector. The reversal of the price trends was noted as early as the end of 2015 in Paris, while it lasted throughout 2016 in the vibrant towns of the French provinces. It has yet to reach the rural sector.

Likewise, in the major towns of the French provinces, annual trends regarding older apartments remain heterogeneous:

- prices in Saint-Étienne continue to fall, though the decline is easing (-2.9% year on year),

- Dijon, following a 4% rise in the last quarter, is undergoing a fall of the same order this quarter,

- In Besançon, Marseille, Orléans, Grenoble, Nice, Montpellier, Tours and Rennes, prices are relatively stable,

- In Toulouse, Lyon, Brest, Toulon, Reims, Strasbourg, Lille, Le Havre and Nantes, prices are showing a moderate rise (between +2% and +5% year on year),

- Nancy and Bordeaux stand out, with more sustained rises (+5.6% and +9.8% respectively).

Although some trends remain stable, or even negative, there is a trend reversal in progress and the increases have yet to absorb the last negative quarters. Nevertheless, 2017 should confirm this trend reversal in most of the vibrant towns of the French provinces.

Furthermore, like the first two quarters of 2016, price trends on the market for older apartments in the departments of the French provinces are still heterogeneous: 50% of departments are seeing their prices decrease and 30% reported an upturn in prices in the third quarter 2016 compared with the third quarter 2015.

The bullish trend observed on the house market is continuing, with more than one out of two departments reporting higher prices.

It should be noted that there is a decorrelation in the price rises, depending on the properties, with apartment prices rising slower than that of houses in the French provinces, and the reverse phenomenon occurring in Greater Paris.

pre-contracts

The price index projection for the end of February 2017 from pre-contracts throughout mainland France is confirming this upward trend.

For older apartments, the annual trend is +4.5%. This would mark a return to the price levels of the start of 2014.

In older houses, the annual price rise is more marked, at +5.7%. On this market, these price levels have not been seen since 2012.

In the French provinces, the trend has been similar for older apartments, at +4.7% year on year. For houses, the rise is slightly higher (+6.3% year on year).

annual price change per sq. m.

Less than -2% From -2% to 2% More than 2%

Source: Property databases of Notaires de France (The prices for Greater Paris are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indexes for the 3rd quarter 2016)

MEDIAN pRICES pER SQ.M. OF OLDER ApARTMENTS IN THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2016

Strasbourg€2,550

3.1%Tours€2,130

1.3%

Saint-Étienne€910-2.9%

Orleans€1,900-0.4%

Grenoble€2,220-0.3%

Clermont-Ferrand€1,7304.4%Bordeaux

€3,3309.8%

Bayonne€2,540

2.8%Montpellier

€2,5400.5%

Toulouse€2,560

2.1%

Nantes€2,620

4.8%Dijon

€1,930-4.6%

Lyon€3,440

2.4%Limoges€1,070-7.4%

Poitiers€1,480-5.6%

Rennes€2,440

1.7%

Caen€1,920

1.4%

Mulhouse€970-5.2%

Besançon€1,650-1.0%

Marseille€2,280-0.7%

Nice€3,570

0.0%

Réunion€2,170

6.6%

Toulon€2,110

2.9%

Corse-du-Sud€2,880

0.2%

Haute-Corse€2,240

1.2%

Reims€2,050

2.9%Nancy€1,810

5.6%

Metz€1,790

1.6%

Paris€8,300

3.6%

Lille€3,010

3.7%

Rouen€2,100-2.9%

Amiens€2,100

5.1%

Trend over one year: 1 July 2016 to 30 September 2016/1 July 2015 to 30 September 2015

Nimes€1,520

4%

Bourges€1,240

2.7%

No. 34 - JaNuary 2017 No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

Marketing of new homes Results in the 3rd quarter 2016(Extract from Datalab Essentiel report no. 64 of November 2016)

3rd quarter 2016

Reservations+18.6% year on year

(27,753 units)

Offered for sale+18.7% year on year

(26,554 units)

Housing outstanding

-2.5% year on year(97,622 units)

Housing construction Results at end of November 2016(Extract from Datalab Essentiel report no. 72 of December 2016)

Variation Q/Q-1 (*)

All Houses

Apartments(including blocks of

luxury flats)

Approved housing

+8% +5.7% +9.6%

Housing started

+1.4% +0.8% +1.8%

(1) Last three months compared with the previous three months

The new housing market - Key figures

For several years, the property market has been dependent on movements in lending rates. A sharp rise would curb sales and drive prices down, whereas a substantial fall would have the opposite effect. However, rates are not the only factor in influencing prices; many other external parameters have an impact on prices.

In the face of financial investments with uncertain returns, households are resorting to safe-havens, with property being one of the choices of preference for the French.

Buyers have found additional reasons, through the substantial decline in interest rates and, for first-time buyers, in the overhaul in interest-free loans. Government mechanisms which have been revamped in recent years - and which are renewed in the draft finance bill - have moved in the right direction and are now effective, whether it be interest-free loans or even the Pinel scheme, which encourages rental investment.

The knock-on effect created by falling interest rates does not, alone, account for the renewed interest in property. Moreover, it should continue in 2017, ensuring that sales volumes are kept high.

As for prices, they will depend primarily on the mechanisms used by policies which may have different influences on the market. A return to a capital gain at 15 years could dampen price rises, whilst a stepping-up of investment in bricks and mortar would automatically boost buyer numbers, consequently putting pressure on prices.

It will be remembered that the proposals put forward by Notaires de France to the candidates in the French presidential election advocate this position, seeking primarily solutions in order to enhance market fluidity. Under the proposals put forward by the Conseil supérieur du notariat (High Council of French Notaries) and in keeping with existing mechanisms, encouragement should be given to first-time buyers, improving particularly fiscal transparency and clarity for investors, and even reviewing regulations governing capital gains.

In any event, the announced rate increase for 2017 should not have the same psychological effect as the unexpected one of spring 2015. The latter has been announced and the respective rise in rates over the coming year has been factored in by future buyers; it should not greatly alter their solvency.

As for Brexit, the return of large numbers of French people living in the UK could put considerable pressure on high-value properties. However, in this respect, prior to invoking the

mechanism for withdrawal from the European Union, wait and see…

What are the trends for 2017?

annual change in sale price Less than -2% From -2% to 2% More than 2%

Source: Property databases of Notaires de France(The prices for Greater Paris are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indexes for the 3rd quarter of 2016)

MEDIAN SALE pRICE OF OLDER HOUSES IN THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2016

Trend over one year: 1 July 2016 to 30 September 2016/1 July 2015 to 30 September 2015The statistics for houses concern the whole urban area (town centre + suburbs)

Rouen€165,700

-1.4%

Reims€215,000

-0.5%

Lille€188,500

-0.8%

Brest€173,800

4.7%

Nantes€265,000

6.0%

Poitiers€166,000

7.1%

Bordeaux€287,500

6.5%

Angers€210,100

1.9%

Montauban€182,100

-0.5%

Toulouse€281,600

3.8%Montpellier€288,500

-9.9%

Marseille/ Aix-en-Provence

€313,000-0.4%

Orleans€200,000

1.5%

Toulon€343,600

2.7%

Tours€212,900

1.4%

Chartres€207,500

12.2%

Lyon€320,100

2.3%

Le Havre€160,000

-4.5%

Grenoble€333,500

-0.6%

Saint-Étienne€180,500

-3.0%

Metz€188,600

0.9%

Nancy€175,500

4.2%Troyes

€150,000-6.3%

Réunion€196,800

-4.0%

Châteauroux€100,000

-13.4%

Greater Paris€298,900

1.2%

Caen€216,000

15.5%

Dijon€221,000

3.4%

Limoges€139,300

-2.1%

Amiens€150,600

-8.8%

Nimes€205,000

3.3%

However, these price increases were far from being homogeneous.

Indeed, there are several markets, depending on whether you are in Paris, in the vibrant towns of the French provinces or in the peri-urban or rural sector. The reversal of the price trends was noted as early as the end of 2015 in Paris, while it lasted throughout 2016 in the vibrant towns of the French provinces. It has yet to reach the rural sector.

Likewise, in the major towns of the French provinces, annual trends regarding older apartments remain heterogeneous:

- prices in Saint-Étienne continue to fall, though the decline is easing (-2.9% year on year),

- Dijon, following a 4% rise in the last quarter, is undergoing a fall of the same order this quarter,

- In Besançon, Marseille, Orléans, Grenoble, Nice, Montpellier, Tours and Rennes, prices are relatively stable,

- In Toulouse, Lyon, Brest, Toulon, Reims, Strasbourg, Lille, Le Havre and Nantes, prices are showing a moderate rise (between +2% and +5% year on year),

- Nancy and Bordeaux stand out, with more sustained rises (+5.6% and +9.8% respectively).

Although some trends remain stable, or even negative, there is a trend reversal in progress and the increases have yet to absorb the last negative quarters. Nevertheless, 2017 should confirm this trend reversal in most of the vibrant towns of the French provinces.

Furthermore, like the first two quarters of 2016, price trends on the market for older apartments in the departments of the French provinces are still heterogeneous: 50% of departments are seeing their prices decrease and 30% reported an upturn in prices in the third quarter 2016 compared with the third quarter 2015.

The bullish trend observed on the house market is continuing, with more than one out of two departments reporting higher prices.

It should be noted that there is a decorrelation in the price rises, depending on the properties, with apartment prices rising slower than that of houses in the French provinces, and the reverse phenomenon occurring in Greater Paris.

pre-contracts

The price index projection for the end of February 2017 from pre-contracts throughout mainland France is confirming this upward trend.

For older apartments, the annual trend is +4.5%. This would mark a return to the price levels of the start of 2014.

In older houses, the annual price rise is more marked, at +5.7%. On this market, these price levels have not been seen since 2012.

In the French provinces, the trend has been similar for older apartments, at +4.7% year on year. For houses, the rise is slightly higher (+6.3% year on year).

annual price change per sq. m.

Less than -2% From -2% to 2% More than 2%

Source: Property databases of Notaires de France (The prices for Greater Paris are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indexes for the 3rd quarter 2016)

MEDIAN pRICES pER SQ.M. OF OLDER ApARTMENTS IN THE 3rd QUARTER OF 2016

Strasbourg€2,550

3.1%Tours€2,130

1.3%

Saint-Étienne€910-2.9%

Orleans€1,900-0.4%

Grenoble€2,220-0.3%

Clermont-Ferrand€1,7304.4%Bordeaux

€3,3309.8%

Bayonne€2,540

2.8%Montpellier

€2,5400.5%

Toulouse€2,560

2.1%

Nantes€2,620

4.8%Dijon

€1,930-4.6%

Lyon€3,440

2.4%Limoges€1,070-7.4%

Poitiers€1,480-5.6%

Rennes€2,440

1.7%

Caen€1,920

1.4%

Mulhouse€970-5.2%

Besançon€1,650-1.0%

Marseille€2,280-0.7%

Nice€3,570

0.0%

Réunion€2,170

6.6%

Toulon€2,110

2.9%

Corse-du-Sud€2,880

0.2%

Haute-Corse€2,240

1.2%

Reims€2,050

2.9%Nancy€1,810

5.6%

Metz€1,790

1.6%

Paris€8,300

3.6%

Lille€3,010

3.7%

Rouen€2,100-2.9%

Amiens€2,100

5.1%

Trend over one year: 1 July 2016 to 30 September 2016/1 July 2015 to 30 September 2015

Nimes€1,520

4%

Bourges€1,240

2.7%

No. 34 - JaNuary 2017 No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

Marketing of new homes Results in the 3rd quarter 2016(Extract from Datalab Essentiel report no. 64 of November 2016)

3rd quarter 2016

Reservations+18.6% year on year

(27,753 units)

Offered for sale+18.7% year on year

(26,554 units)

Housing outstanding

-2.5% year on year(97,622 units)

Housing construction Results at end of November 2016(Extract from Datalab Essentiel report no. 72 of December 2016)

Variation Q/Q-1 (*)

All Houses

Apartments(including blocks of

luxury flats)

Approved housing

+8% +5.7% +9.6%

Housing started

+1.4% +0.8% +1.8%

(1) Last three months compared with the previous three months

The new housing market - Key figures

For several years, the property market has been dependent on movements in lending rates. A sharp rise would curb sales and drive prices down, whereas a substantial fall would have the opposite effect. However, rates are not the only factor in influencing prices; many other external parameters have an impact on prices.

In the face of financial investments with uncertain returns, households are resorting to safe-havens, with property being one of the choices of preference for the French.

Buyers have found additional reasons, through the substantial decline in interest rates and, for first-time buyers, in the overhaul in interest-free loans. Government mechanisms which have been revamped in recent years - and which are renewed in the draft finance bill - have moved in the right direction and are now effective, whether it be interest-free loans or even the Pinel scheme, which encourages rental investment.

The knock-on effect created by falling interest rates does not, alone, account for the renewed interest in property. Moreover, it should continue in 2017, ensuring that sales volumes are kept high.

As for prices, they will depend primarily on the mechanisms used by policies which may have different influences on the market. A return to a capital gain at 15 years could dampen price rises, whilst a stepping-up of investment in bricks and mortar would automatically boost buyer numbers, consequently putting pressure on prices.

It will be remembered that the proposals put forward by Notaires de France to the candidates in the French presidential election advocate this position, seeking primarily solutions in order to enhance market fluidity. Under the proposals put forward by the Conseil supérieur du notariat (High Council of French Notaries) and in keeping with existing mechanisms, encouragement should be given to first-time buyers, improving particularly fiscal transparency and clarity for investors, and even reviewing regulations governing capital gains.

In any event, the announced rate increase for 2017 should not have the same psychological effect as the unexpected one of spring 2015. The latter has been announced and the respective rise in rates over the coming year has been factored in by future buyers; it should not greatly alter their solvency.

As for Brexit, the return of large numbers of French people living in the UK could put considerable pressure on high-value properties. However, in this respect, prior to invoking the

mechanism for withdrawal from the European Union, wait and see…

What are the trends for 2017?

No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

In terms of business, 2016 was a very dynamic year. Sales over a rolling twelve month period rose progressively, reaching in the summer of 2016 levels as high as the previous peaks of 2006 and the start of 2012. An estimated 843,000 transactions were made over the last twelve months, up 9% year on year (see graph).

Market conditions were driven by several factors: attractive interest rates, relative price stability in the major towns, the success of the Pinel scheme for investors in new homes, and interest-free loans.

The first observation, a crucial one in terms of market resilience, stems from stronger property purchasing power linked to creditworthiness generated by the correlated fall in rates and prices.

Between 2008 and 2016, property purchasing power in France climbed 29%. According to a study by Crédit Foncier, in eight years, monthly payments of the French fell by 22%, a saving of 140 euros per month, and their creditworthiness rose 35%.

These very low rates therefore enabled many French people to increase their budget for an equivalent monthly effort

and this led notably to a significant return of first-time buyers.

According to statistics drawn up by the Bank of France and corroborated by the National Institute of Statistics & Economic Studies (Insee), the number of home loans granted continued to rise in the final quarter of 2016, particularly on account of attractive borrowing rates and the number of renegotiations, which remained strong.

On the back of these low rates, sales volumes rose (+29% between Feb. 2013 and Oct. 2016, see graph).

With regard to property prices, the trend noted at the start of 2016 was therefore confirmed in the third quarter of 2016, with prices of second-

hand properties in France increasing compared with the second quarter (+1.1% in provisional seasonally-adjusted data) according to the Notaires de France - Insee index. Prices of apartments still rose (+0.8%, after +0.4%), and house prices, which fluctuate more, bounced back (+1.3%, after -0.4% in the second quarter, and +0.7% in the first).

Thus, for the third consecutive quarter, property prices rose year on year: +1.6% compared with the third quarter of 2015, a more significant increase than the previous quarter (+0.6%). This rise was more marked for houses (+1,8%) than for apartments (+1.3%).

This upward trend was generalised both in Greater Paris and in the French provinces.

DefinitionsSeasonally-adjusted pricesIn the same way that the calculation of the indexes makes it possible to strip out structural effects, seasonal corrections are intended to adjust seasonal fluctuations. The purpose is to ensure a fair comparison of trends between two consecutive quarters, without this interpretation being distorted by the time of year. For example, property prices (particularly for houses) rise during the third quarter of each year, due to demand from families driven by the school year.

Median pricesThe INSEE and Notary indexes are available only for those geographical regions where the number of transactions is sufficiently high. At more detailed levels, median prices are used. The median price is the price at which 50% of transactions have been concluded at a lower price and 50% at a higher price. It more accurately represents the "midpoint" of the market than the average, as it is less affected by extreme values.

INSEE and Notary IndexesThe calculation method used for the INSEE and Notary indexes is based on econometric models which break down the price of a property according to its main characteristics (location, size, comfort, etc.) in order to be better able to withstand structural effects that cause transaction prices to vary from quarter to quarter.

VARIATION IN INSEE AND NOTARY INDEXES*

* Three-month variation (seasonally adjusted): Trend between the 2nd and 3rd quarters 2016 One-year variation: Trend between the 3rd quarter 2015 and the 3rd quarter 2016

(Base 100 in 1st quarter 2010)

SECOND-HAND PROPERTIES OLDER APARTMENTS OLDER HOUSES

3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year

Mainland France 1.1% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8%

Greater Paris 0.9% 2.2% 1.2% 2.6% 0.2% 1.2%

French provinces 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9%

2016: A DYNAMIC YEAR

Contact: Training and Development Department, Conseil supérieur du notariat

Editorial committee: Marie-Pierre Péré, Thierry Delesalle, Thierry Thomas, Christine Rey Du Boissieu, Caroline Gaffet, François Proost

Publication Director: Isabelle Mariano

Published by: Conseil supérieur du notariat 60, boulevard de La Tour-Maubourg - 75007 Paris Tel.: + 33 (0)1 44 90 30 00 - www.notaires.fr

Created by: Publi.not - Florence Ganivet

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+33 (0)4 73 26 44 50

ISSN: 2100-241X - Photo credits: Fotolia - Phovoir

*Change in projected indicators based on pre-contractsin Mainland France: projection at end of February 2017.

Older apartments

Olderhouses

Change 3 months* 1.2% 2.3%

Change 1 year* 4.5% 5.7%

LATEST TRENDS

The mountain properties market posts mixed results

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aug. 09 : 564 000

feb. 13: 652 000

feb. 15: 691 000

oct. 16 : 843 000 feb. 12: 834 000

Like the national market, the market for older apartments in the ski resorts of Savoie and Haute-Savoie yielded lukewarm results: half the resorts reported rising prices, particularly in the resorts of the 3 Vallées (Courchevel, Méribel and Les Ménuires / Val-Thorens) and of Skipass-Mont-Blanc (Les Houches and Chamonix Mont-Blanc). Conversely, one third of the resorts saw their prices decrease, particularly at Tignes-le-lac (-5.8%), La Clusaz (-2.4%), Grand-Bornand (-5.6%) and Gets (-7.3%).

In Tignes-le-lac, this decrease may be accounted for by the fact that this is related to the ageing part of the resort. Furthermore, it may be noted that, overall, Tignes prices continued to rise and all the more so as the resort is ever more attractive on account of the lack of snow (see summer skiing on the glacier).

In terms of prices, Megève and Val-d’Isère were the most expensive, €7,620 and €7,970 respectively per sq.m.

Due to unreliable weather over recent years and a lack of snow in the lowest resorts, high-altitude resorts were booming, with record occupancy rates as early as the first week of the New Year and throughout the winter season. This high occupancy rate does in fact offer a good rental return, which is highly attractive for investors, and this can explain the upward trend in prices. Attention is also drawn to the quality upgrading of numerous resorts such as Val-Thorens, Les Ménuires or Les Arcs, with 5-star luxury hotels and tourist homes opening up there.

Lastly, non-residents accounted for 18% of buyers on this market, a stable proportion year on year. The majority were English (45%), followed by French (15%), Belgians (12%) and Swiss (6%).

Saint-Gervais 3 220 € / -1,5%

Les Houches 4 500 € / +4,4% La Clusaz 6 170 € / -2,4%

La Plagne 3 120 € / +2,3%

Les Arcs 1800 3 770 € / +2,2%

Tignes-le-Lac 3 840 € / -5,8%

Val-d’Isère village 7 970 € / -0,7%

Valloire 4 210 € / +2,3%

Méribel-Mottaret 6 650 € / +6,6%

Val-Thorens 4 100 € / +3,4%

Le Grand-Bornand 4 470 € / -5,6%

Morzine 4 990 € / -1% Les Gets 5 330 € / -7,3%

Chamonix Mont-Blanc 5 760 € / +5,5%

Megève 7 620 € / +16,4%

Les Ménuires 3 880 € / +7,5%

Val Claret 4 580 € / +7,1%

Châtel 4 040 € / +13,4%

Arâche 3 360 € / -3,9%

Samoëns 4 020 € / +12,6%

Praz-sur-Arly 3 420 € / -9,9%

Le Corbier 1 640 € / -6,5%

Les Contamines-Montjoie 3 380 € +0,5%

Thollon-les-Mémises 2 400 € / -6,3%

Annual price change per sq. m.

Less than -2%

From -2% to 2%

More than 2%Source : Property databases of Notaires de France

a mixed market for the two Savoie departmentsMedian price per sq.m. for older apartments

Trend over one year: 1 october 2015 to 30 September 2016/1 october 2014 to 30 September 2015

Visitwww.notaires.fr to view all our reports on the current property market

No. 34 - JaNuary 2017No. 34 - JaNuary 2017

Change in the number of sales for 2000-2006