2015 renewables deep dive final - e.on...owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 fy pro-rata share...
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E.ON Business Deep Dive - RenewablesDecember, 2015
Agenda
2
E.ON Renewables Position
E.ON Renewables Business Approach
Market Trends
E.ON Renewables highlights
4.5 GW diversified portfolio (average age of 8 years) across Europe & US1
Global #2 in offshore wind
Global #12 in onshore wind
Multi-technology developer, constructor, operator and asset partner with broad international footprint
12.3 TWh electricity produced in 2014
€ 823 m EBITDA generated in 2014
3
1. Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%)
Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables player
We own a diversified renewables portfolio of 4.5 GW across Europe and US
Portfolio overview1
1. Forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%)
4
Malmö
Essen
Szczecin
Rome
Coventry
Hamburg
32848%
52%
US
Europe
HeadquarterOffice location
Capacity (MW)Onshore windOffshore windSolar
155462
207
913
95
2310
5.2 GW of operated capacity
Chicago
San Francisco
Austin
Investments in renewables
5
Total investments of ~11bn (gross) in new capacity since inception of EC&R
In the first four years focus largely on onshore wind, since then an increased share in offshore wind
Portfolio has grown 10 times since July 2007, despite recently tighter capex situation
Strict investment discipline applied with IRRs exceeding WACC by more than a defined minimum hurdle
1.4 GW disposed through capital rotation and strategic country exits
Key facts
E.ON has a proven track-record based on > €10bn successful investments since setup of EC&R in 2007
Investments (bn€)2,3
1,51,0 1,2 1,2
1,7
0,9 1,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capacity built (GW)
0,4
1,1
1,9
2,8
3,64,2
4,85,2 5,3
5,9
4,5
May2007
2008 2010 2012 2014 Disposals
Onshore wind development Offshore wind development Solar development
>10x
1. Including equity and debt for the acquisitions of E2I and Airtricity
1
Track-record
6
1. 100% of Capex2. PV capacity in MW DC (Direct Current)
Project examples
5.9 GW of capacity built since 2007 Extensive construction expertise > 50 projects delivered > 90% of projects delivered in budget and
on time 2 offshore projects constructed in parallel
(CODs in 2015) Grandview I (211 MW US onshore wind)
completed within 180 days (FID to COD) Competitive edge in development: top-class
site assessment In-house O&M workforce trained to industry
standards
Excellent execution capabilities on back of continuous development of new projects
Key facts
London Array, the world’s largest offshore wind farmCOD: Q2 2013Capex1: € 2400mE.ON share: 30 %Capacity: 630 MW
Grandview I, onshore wind farm in Panhandle, TexasCOD: Q4 2014Capex1: € 331mE.ON share: 50%Capacity: 211 MW
Maricopa West, PV park in Kern County, CaliforniaCOD: Q4 2015Capex1: € 55 mE.ON share: 100 %Capacity2: 28 MW
We deliver outstanding performance based on our expertise and capabilities
Earnings
7
EBITDA growing since inception with a CAGR of 33%
Growth pace fastest in the phase 2007-2010
Since then capital rotation and disposals slightly impacted earnings development
Strong capex focus on offshore in 2013-2015
Majority of earnings supported by regulated / long-term contracted revenues ~60%
~25% of 2015 EBITDA in US onshore, ~40% in Europe offshore and rest in Europe onshore
Key factsEBITDA Development (€bn)
Earnings have grown continuously over past 7 years
Revenue Mix 2015
US UKContinental Europe
MerchantRegulated / long-term contracted
0.20.3
0.50.6 0.6
0.70.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Agenda
8
E.ON Renewables Position
E.ON Renewables Business Approach
Market Trends
E.ON key success factors and portfolio approach
9
E.ON Key Success Factors in Renewables
Access to premium sites
Cost competitiveness and end-to-end process excellence
Scale advantage (supported by partnering and capital
rotation)
E.ON Portfolio Approach in Renewables
Focus on attractive technologies
Capture attractive remuneration schemes across different markets in
stable countries
Prudent and disciplined capital allocation
We have a holistic and value creating approach to renewables
Site selection
10
Start with near shore, shallow water projects before moving to deeper water, far shore projects
Examples – offshore wind
Attractive site selection with improved economics
RampionLondon Array
Kårehamn
Humber Gateway
Water depth [m]
Amrumbank West
Alpha Ventus
Blyth
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Distance to shore [km]
80706050403020100
Scroby Sands
Rødsand 2
Robin Rigg
Under constructionIn operation
Grandview secured by early analysis of the grid expansion program in Texas in 2010
Potential size of the site: ~ 1.0 GW (211 MW already built and 200 MW under construction)
Avg. load factor: >50%
Example – Grandview (Texas, US)
Positioning ofUK round 3 projects1
1. Source: Renewables UK, 4COffshore
Site layout
Size of this circle correspondsto 200 MW wind farm size
Attractive regulatory regimes and policy support still prevailing in our core markets
Current regulatory regimes and frameworks
11
Summary
913
US: Tax Credits (PTC and ITC) Accelerated Depreciation
(MACRS) Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) Expected positive impact
from Clean Power PlanUK: Renewable Obligation
Certificates (ROC) Contract for differences
(CfD) Levy Exemption
Certificates (LEC) have fallen away (Aug 2015)
Germany: Feed-in tariff (FIT) for
German offshore (“Stauchungsmodell”)
Quota obligation & tradable certificates
Feed-in tariff
Premium
E.ON Market HighlightsRemuneration scheme by geography
PAYMENT MECHANISM
ALLOCATION
Competitive auctions
Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only
Others
SUBSIDY BUDGETCapped
Source: Bloomberg
Industry learning curve
1. Levelized Cost Of Electricity
12
As markets mature and competitiveness increases, operational excellence will remain key for sustainable, profitable growth
Installed capacityLCOE1
Fixed subsidies Tenders
Higher competition & cost pressureHigh policy support
LCOE development trends
1. Assumed conversion rate €/$ = 1.12. Average of China, India, US and EuropeSource: Stiftung (Offshore Wind), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Onshore Wind, Coal, Gas)
LCOE key drivers
CAPEX and OPEX Reduction
LCOE global trend1
Wind LCOE competitive with other technologies
Output Optimization
40
60
80
100
120
140
20172013 2020 2023
CoalOnshore WindOffshore Wind
Gas
13
(€/MWh)
Generation cost
LCOE development at E.ON
14
E.ON project LCOE examples (€/MWh)1Cost Structure – Example of onshore wind
OPEX
CAPEX
Risk-margin
Installation
Other CAPEX
Turbines
-10% CAPEX reduction equates to ~110 bps IRR increase
Other OPEX (onlypartially controllable)
O&M
2011 (Humber)
100%78%
-22%
2015 (Rampion)
Offshore
Onshore
1. At final investment decision (FID).
-40%
2015 (Colbeck’sCorner)
60%
2009 (Pyron)
100%
CAPEX reduction
15
We continuously drive down required capital by optimizing design, procurement and construction
Optimized design LCOE-driven layout (optimizing wind yield and
installation costs)
Fit for purpose design/selection of components (site specific economically optimal wind turbine types)
Standardized and integrated process
Rigorous application of procurement best practices Central procurement applying optimized procurement
strategy
Increased supplier choice/competition by proactive supplier development, involvement of global suppliers, e-auctions
Bundling and volume effect of a long term charter
Project / construction management excellence Recent examples: Completed latest two offshore
projects (combined 500 MW) and latest US onshore project (200 MW) on time and budget
CAPEX reduction leversCAPEX/MWh examples1
100%
-18%
2015(Rampion) 82%
2011(Humber)
Offshore
Onshore North America
-44%
2015(Colbeck’s Corner) 56%
2009(Pyron) 100%
1. At final investment decision (FID).
OPEX reduction
16
Operation & maintenance as key lever for OPEX reduction
O&M cost containment – Onshore1
1. Based on portfolio as per 2011 baseline for 2015.
O&M improvement measures O&M contracting and concept: Roll-out of self-perform
and mixed team sites; break-out of full service contracts into standard contract modules
Spares concept and contracting: Application of global framework for major components and own purchase of consumables
Smart Maintenance: Retrofit with Condition Monitoring System and development of a predictive maintenance strategy
Other initiatives
Additional potential due to active asset management concepts by Further contract re-negotiation Other initiatives
O&M levers
Estimation YE 2015
-18%
82%
5%
Other initiatives
Additionalcost reduction
3%
2%
CMS/ SmartMaintenance
4%
2011 baseline for 2015
Spares concept& contracting 4%
O&MContracting
100%
Load factor and availability
17
We have excellent performances in terms of both availability and load factors
Load factor (%)
Offshore Onshore US
Energetic Availability
(%)
Onshore EU
Energetic availability for ~5 years old farms1
Net load factor for ~3 years old farms2Net load factor for ~5 years old farms1
3735 3634
01020
304050
20142013
25253030
01020
304050
20142013
3536
46
01020
304050
20142013
9796 98
020406080
100
2014
98
2013
9798 9797
020406080
100
20142013
9496
02040
6080
100
2014
98
2013
Energetic availability for ~3 years old farms2
1. COD in 2009-2010; 2. COD in 2011-2012 (onshore) and in 2013 (offshore)3. Offshore: Ambrumbank West; Onshore: Grandview 1 and Colbeck‘s Corner
48+% load factor in recent projects3 50+% load factor in recent projects3
IRR vs WACC spreads examples
18
Attractive returns above WACC plus hurdle
Bps above WACC1.000
750
500
250
WACC
Year of final investment decision
2015201420132012201120102009
Size of this circle correspondsto 200 MW wind farm size
Onshore wind Offshore wind
Additional value creation
19
Third party investors, especially in large-scale projects, increase flexibility and support a diversified portfolio development
Partnering supports economies of scale and further development of E.ON capabilities while at the same time developing relationships with long-term valuable partners
Partnering allows for shared construction & operational risks and smother earnings profile
E.ON generates additional income as construction manager and operator of the sites
Strategic partners offer complementary capabilities, allowing to reduce LCOE and risks as well as enhancing success rate in tenders
Partnering
Partnering & Third Party Services allow risk diversification and further leveraging our capabilities
Offering full scale operations, maintenance, asset & energy mgmt. services to third party asset owners
Unique value proposition towards customers as E.ON’s experience and capabilities in building & operating renewable farms is strong
Emergence of new financial players as well as small/ midsized wind farm owners without in-house technical competencies seeking steady cash flow and lower risk profile
Leveraging global experience and portfolio allows E.ON to takeover and manage risks on customer’s behalf
Asset-light business model and economies of scale (e.g. technical support, procurement) by increasing operational portfolio with customer sites
Natural and complementary business model to partnering
Third Party Services
Successful capital recycling has contributed to E.ON’s renewables development in the past
Capital recycling
20
Reduce exposure to cluster and regulatory risks of large projects
Increase flexibility and support a diversified portfolio development
Additional value from Third Party Services
Partnering
Transaction type Main rationale Past transactions
Lock-in value upside especially from US PV
Rapid monetization of created valueBuild to sell
Advance monetization of value from existing projects to fund new ones
Additional value from Third Party ServicesCapital rotation of operational assets
Alamo (PV)
Rödsand(Offshore)
US Onshore
US Onshore
Rampion (Offshore)
Cap: 400 MWSold: 49.9%Year: 2015
Cap1: 24 MWSold: 100%Year: 2015
Cap: 433 MWSold: 50%Year: 2012
Cap: 207 MWSold: 80%Year: 2013
Cap: 406 MWSold: 80%Year: 2014
1. PV capacity figures in MW DC (Direct Current)
PV projects & initiatives
21
Capacity built1 (MW)
Recent projects1 (built & sold)Alamo
Size: 24 MWCOD: May ’15Buyer: Dominion
Maricopa WestSize: 28 MWCOD: Nov ’15 Buyer: Dominion
E.ON can rely on existing capabilities and experience also in solar PV
PV project delivery experience of >150 MW (14 projects), including development and construction
Current geographical focus in US
~90% of the projects delivered on time and on budget
In the past, focus on build to sell
Highly standardized development and engineering to ensure end-to-end process excellence and off-the-shelve PV project delivery
Professional Energy Marketing enables participation in tenders and RFPs
Key facts
1. Until end 2015. All capacity figures in MW DC (Direct Current)
49
152
1192
US Italy France Total
Agenda
22
E.ON Renewables Position
E.ON Renewables Business Approach
Market Trends
Market trends – renewable capacity growth
23
1. Installed capacity, excluding large-scale hydro; Growth expressed as CAGRSource: IHS
Recent market development Wind & Solar cover largest share of capacity
additions with focus on emerging markets Largest markets for Wind & Solar until 2020:
China, India, United States, Germany, Japan
Investments in Solar and Wind > $300bn of global renewable investments per
annum expected for the next 25 years
Key drivers for future growth Competitiveness: Renewables cost decreasing Security of supply: Fuel independence Industrial policy: Local content requirements Climate change: Low-carbon generation Competitiveness of storage
Global growth trendsGlobal1 (GW)
Renewables energy market growing fast, especially in Wind and Solar PV
EU1 (GW)
US1 (GW)1.000
500
0
4%
2030202520202015
1.000
500
0
4%
2030202520202015
0
1.000
2.000
203020252020
7%
2015
OthersOffshore wind Onshore windUtility PV
E.ON key strengths
24
Well positioned to further benefit from continuous growth in renewables
Cost competitiveness & process excellence as well as best site selection and scale
Proven track record in the most attractive technologies across different markets
Solid position and grow path in core markets
Agenda
25
E.ON Renewables Position
E.ON Renewables Business Approach
Market Trends
Appendix
Capturing attractive regulatory remuneration schemes
Current regulatory regimes and frameworks (cont’d)
26
Offshore ROC per MW Term: 20 years Remuneration: Wholesale price
plus 1.8-2.0 ROC/MWh based on COD
Applicable for all E.ON offshore parks in UK1
From 2014 move to CfD system (strike price in first auction £114.39-119.89/MWh)
Onshore Wholesale price plus ROC (valid
until 2016) Term: 20 years Remuneration: 0.9 ROC Applicable for all E.ON onshore From Feb. 2015, CfD system
(strike price in first auction £79.23-82.50/MWh )
UKOffshore FIT with direct marketing obligation Remuneration (EEG 14):
- Initial tariff: 154 €/MWh for 12 years (standard) or 194 €/MWh for 8 years (accelerated model)
- Base tariff: 39 €/MWh- Initial tariff extended for deep
waters/distance to shore Applicable for all E.ON offshore
parks in Germany2
Onshore FIT with direct marketing obligation Term: 20 years plus the year of
start of operation (initial tariff for min 5 years followed by base tariff)
Remuneration (EEG 14): - Initial tariff: 893 €/MWh- Base tariff: 49.5 €/MWh
From 2016: ~0.4% quarterly digression
Applicable for all E.ON onshoreparks in Germany
Germany Onshore Remuneration based wholesale
market or PPA, plus certain incentive features
Production Tax Credit ($23/MWh) or Investment Tax Credit (30% of investment) in place for projects completed by 2016
Renewable Energy Certificate (driven by state-level Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Accelerated Depreciation for tax equity investors and developers (MACRS)
Solar Remuneration based PPA plus
certain incentive features Investment Tax Credit (30% of
investment) in place for projects completed by 2016 – after drops to 10%
Renewable Energy Certificate (driven by state-level Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS)
US
1. Including Rampion2. Including Amrumbank and Alpha Ventus3. Base on reference turbine ROC: Renewables Obligation Certificate; CfD: Contract for Difference; FiT: Feed-In-Tariff
E.ON project examples
27
E.ON has diversified portfolio of projects under construction
Summary
Rampion (COD ´18) 400 MW 20 years ROC scheme 75% share
Amrumbank (COD ´15) 288 MW FIT („Stauchnungsmodell“) 100% share
Countries with projects under development
Maricopa West1 (COD ´15) 28 MW 100% share To be disposed in ‘15
Colbeck's Corner (COD ´16) 200 MW Merchant 100% share
1. PV capacity in MW DC (Direct Current)
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts madeby E.ON Group Management and other information currently available to E.ON. Various known and unknownrisks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results,financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. E.ON SE doesnot intend, and does not assume any liability whatsoever, to update these forward-looking statements or toconform them to future events or developments.
Disclaimer