2015 renewables deep dive final - e.on...owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 fy pro-rata share...

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E.ON Business Deep Dive - Renewables December, 2015

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Page 1: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

E.ON Business Deep Dive - RenewablesDecember, 2015

Page 2: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Agenda

2

E.ON Renewables Position

E.ON Renewables Business Approach

Market Trends

Page 3: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

E.ON Renewables highlights

4.5 GW diversified portfolio (average age of 8 years) across Europe & US1

Global #2 in offshore wind

Global #12 in onshore wind

Multi-technology developer, constructor, operator and asset partner with broad international footprint

12.3 TWh electricity produced in 2014

€ 823 m EBITDA generated in 2014

3

1. Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%)

Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables player

Page 4: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

We own a diversified renewables portfolio of 4.5 GW across Europe and US

Portfolio overview1

1. Forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%)

4

Malmö

Essen

Szczecin

Rome

Coventry

Hamburg

32848%

52%

US

Europe

HeadquarterOffice location

Capacity (MW)Onshore windOffshore windSolar

155462

207

913

95

2310

5.2 GW of operated capacity

Chicago

San Francisco

Austin

Page 5: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Investments in renewables

5

Total investments of ~11bn (gross) in new capacity since inception of EC&R

In the first four years focus largely on onshore wind, since then an increased share in offshore wind

Portfolio has grown 10 times since July 2007, despite recently tighter capex situation

Strict investment discipline applied with IRRs exceeding WACC by more than a defined minimum hurdle

1.4 GW disposed through capital rotation and strategic country exits

Key facts

E.ON has a proven track-record based on > €10bn successful investments since setup of EC&R in 2007

Investments (bn€)2,3

1,51,0 1,2 1,2

1,7

0,9 1,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Capacity built (GW)

0,4

1,1

1,9

2,8

3,64,2

4,85,2 5,3

5,9

4,5

May2007

2008 2010 2012 2014 Disposals

Onshore wind development Offshore wind development Solar development

>10x

1. Including equity and debt for the acquisitions of E2I and Airtricity

1

Page 6: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Track-record

6

1. 100% of Capex2. PV capacity in MW DC (Direct Current)

Project examples

5.9 GW of capacity built since 2007 Extensive construction expertise > 50 projects delivered > 90% of projects delivered in budget and

on time 2 offshore projects constructed in parallel

(CODs in 2015) Grandview I (211 MW US onshore wind)

completed within 180 days (FID to COD) Competitive edge in development: top-class

site assessment In-house O&M workforce trained to industry

standards

Excellent execution capabilities on back of continuous development of new projects

Key facts

London Array, the world’s largest offshore wind farmCOD: Q2 2013Capex1: € 2400mE.ON share: 30 %Capacity: 630 MW

Grandview I, onshore wind farm in Panhandle, TexasCOD: Q4 2014Capex1: € 331mE.ON share: 50%Capacity: 211 MW

Maricopa West, PV park in Kern County, CaliforniaCOD: Q4 2015Capex1: € 55 mE.ON share: 100 %Capacity2: 28 MW

We deliver outstanding performance based on our expertise and capabilities

Page 7: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Earnings

7

EBITDA growing since inception with a CAGR of 33%

Growth pace fastest in the phase 2007-2010

Since then capital rotation and disposals slightly impacted earnings development

Strong capex focus on offshore in 2013-2015

Majority of earnings supported by regulated / long-term contracted revenues ~60%

~25% of 2015 EBITDA in US onshore, ~40% in Europe offshore and rest in Europe onshore

Key factsEBITDA Development (€bn)

Earnings have grown continuously over past 7 years

Revenue Mix 2015

US UKContinental Europe

MerchantRegulated / long-term contracted

0.20.3

0.50.6 0.6

0.70.8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 8: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Agenda

8

E.ON Renewables Position

E.ON Renewables Business Approach

Market Trends

Page 9: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

E.ON key success factors and portfolio approach

9

E.ON Key Success Factors in Renewables

Access to premium sites

Cost competitiveness and end-to-end process excellence

Scale advantage (supported by partnering and capital

rotation)

E.ON Portfolio Approach in Renewables

Focus on attractive technologies

Capture attractive remuneration schemes across different markets in

stable countries

Prudent and disciplined capital allocation

We have a holistic and value creating approach to renewables

Page 10: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Site selection

10

Start with near shore, shallow water projects before moving to deeper water, far shore projects

Examples – offshore wind

Attractive site selection with improved economics

RampionLondon Array

Kårehamn

Humber Gateway

Water depth [m]

Amrumbank West

Alpha Ventus

Blyth

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Distance to shore [km]

80706050403020100

Scroby Sands

Rødsand 2

Robin Rigg

Under constructionIn operation

Grandview secured by early analysis of the grid expansion program in Texas in 2010

Potential size of the site: ~ 1.0 GW (211 MW already built and 200 MW under construction)

Avg. load factor: >50%

Example – Grandview (Texas, US)

Positioning ofUK round 3 projects1

1. Source: Renewables UK, 4COffshore

Site layout

Size of this circle correspondsto 200 MW wind farm size

Page 11: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Attractive regulatory regimes and policy support still prevailing in our core markets

Current regulatory regimes and frameworks

11

Summary

913

US: Tax Credits (PTC and ITC) Accelerated Depreciation

(MACRS) Renewable Portfolio

Standards (RPS) Expected positive impact

from Clean Power PlanUK: Renewable Obligation

Certificates (ROC) Contract for differences

(CfD) Levy Exemption

Certificates (LEC) have fallen away (Aug 2015)

Germany: Feed-in tariff (FIT) for

German offshore (“Stauchungsmodell”)

Quota obligation & tradable certificates

Feed-in tariff

Premium

E.ON Market HighlightsRemuneration scheme by geography

PAYMENT MECHANISM

ALLOCATION

Competitive auctions

Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only

Others

SUBSIDY BUDGETCapped

Source: Bloomberg

Page 12: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Industry learning curve

1. Levelized Cost Of Electricity

12

As markets mature and competitiveness increases, operational excellence will remain key for sustainable, profitable growth

Installed capacityLCOE1

Fixed subsidies Tenders

Higher competition & cost pressureHigh policy support

Page 13: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

LCOE development trends

1. Assumed conversion rate €/$ = 1.12. Average of China, India, US and EuropeSource: Stiftung (Offshore Wind), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Onshore Wind, Coal, Gas)

LCOE key drivers

CAPEX and OPEX Reduction

LCOE global trend1

Wind LCOE competitive with other technologies

Output Optimization

40

60

80

100

120

140

20172013 2020 2023

CoalOnshore WindOffshore Wind

Gas

13

(€/MWh)

Page 14: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Generation cost

LCOE development at E.ON

14

E.ON project LCOE examples (€/MWh)1Cost Structure – Example of onshore wind

OPEX

CAPEX

Risk-margin

Installation

Other CAPEX

Turbines

-10% CAPEX reduction equates to ~110 bps IRR increase

Other OPEX (onlypartially controllable)

O&M

2011 (Humber)

100%78%

-22%

2015 (Rampion)

Offshore

Onshore

1. At final investment decision (FID).

-40%

2015 (Colbeck’sCorner)

60%

2009 (Pyron)

100%

Page 15: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

CAPEX reduction

15

We continuously drive down required capital by optimizing design, procurement and construction

Optimized design LCOE-driven layout (optimizing wind yield and

installation costs)

Fit for purpose design/selection of components (site specific economically optimal wind turbine types)

Standardized and integrated process

Rigorous application of procurement best practices Central procurement applying optimized procurement

strategy

Increased supplier choice/competition by proactive supplier development, involvement of global suppliers, e-auctions

Bundling and volume effect of a long term charter

Project / construction management excellence Recent examples: Completed latest two offshore

projects (combined 500 MW) and latest US onshore project (200 MW) on time and budget

CAPEX reduction leversCAPEX/MWh examples1

100%

-18%

2015(Rampion) 82%

2011(Humber)

Offshore

Onshore North America

-44%

2015(Colbeck’s Corner) 56%

2009(Pyron) 100%

1. At final investment decision (FID).

Page 16: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

OPEX reduction

16

Operation & maintenance as key lever for OPEX reduction

O&M cost containment – Onshore1

1. Based on portfolio as per 2011 baseline for 2015.

O&M improvement measures O&M contracting and concept: Roll-out of self-perform

and mixed team sites; break-out of full service contracts into standard contract modules

Spares concept and contracting: Application of global framework for major components and own purchase of consumables

Smart Maintenance: Retrofit with Condition Monitoring System and development of a predictive maintenance strategy

Other initiatives

Additional potential due to active asset management concepts by Further contract re-negotiation Other initiatives

O&M levers

Estimation YE 2015

-18%

82%

5%

Other initiatives

Additionalcost reduction

3%

2%

CMS/ SmartMaintenance

4%

2011 baseline for 2015

Spares concept& contracting 4%

O&MContracting

100%

Page 17: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Load factor and availability

17

We have excellent performances in terms of both availability and load factors

Load factor (%)

Offshore Onshore US

Energetic Availability

(%)

Onshore EU

Energetic availability for ~5 years old farms1

Net load factor for ~3 years old farms2Net load factor for ~5 years old farms1

3735 3634

01020

304050

20142013

25253030

01020

304050

20142013

3536

46

01020

304050

20142013

9796 98

020406080

100

2014

98

2013

9798 9797

020406080

100

20142013

9496

02040

6080

100

2014

98

2013

Energetic availability for ~3 years old farms2

1. COD in 2009-2010; 2. COD in 2011-2012 (onshore) and in 2013 (offshore)3. Offshore: Ambrumbank West; Onshore: Grandview 1 and Colbeck‘s Corner

48+% load factor in recent projects3 50+% load factor in recent projects3

Page 18: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

IRR vs WACC spreads examples

18

Attractive returns above WACC plus hurdle

Bps above WACC1.000

750

500

250

WACC

Year of final investment decision

2015201420132012201120102009

Size of this circle correspondsto 200 MW wind farm size

Onshore wind Offshore wind

Page 19: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Additional value creation

19

Third party investors, especially in large-scale projects, increase flexibility and support a diversified portfolio development

Partnering supports economies of scale and further development of E.ON capabilities while at the same time developing relationships with long-term valuable partners

Partnering allows for shared construction & operational risks and smother earnings profile

E.ON generates additional income as construction manager and operator of the sites

Strategic partners offer complementary capabilities, allowing to reduce LCOE and risks as well as enhancing success rate in tenders

Partnering

Partnering & Third Party Services allow risk diversification and further leveraging our capabilities

Offering full scale operations, maintenance, asset & energy mgmt. services to third party asset owners

Unique value proposition towards customers as E.ON’s experience and capabilities in building & operating renewable farms is strong

Emergence of new financial players as well as small/ midsized wind farm owners without in-house technical competencies seeking steady cash flow and lower risk profile

Leveraging global experience and portfolio allows E.ON to takeover and manage risks on customer’s behalf

Asset-light business model and economies of scale (e.g. technical support, procurement) by increasing operational portfolio with customer sites

Natural and complementary business model to partnering

Third Party Services

Page 20: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Successful capital recycling has contributed to E.ON’s renewables development in the past

Capital recycling

20

Reduce exposure to cluster and regulatory risks of large projects

Increase flexibility and support a diversified portfolio development

Additional value from Third Party Services

Partnering

Transaction type Main rationale Past transactions

Lock-in value upside especially from US PV

Rapid monetization of created valueBuild to sell

Advance monetization of value from existing projects to fund new ones

Additional value from Third Party ServicesCapital rotation of operational assets

Alamo (PV)

Rödsand(Offshore)

US Onshore

US Onshore

Rampion (Offshore)

Cap: 400 MWSold: 49.9%Year: 2015

Cap1: 24 MWSold: 100%Year: 2015

Cap: 433 MWSold: 50%Year: 2012

Cap: 207 MWSold: 80%Year: 2013

Cap: 406 MWSold: 80%Year: 2014

1. PV capacity figures in MW DC (Direct Current)

Page 21: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

PV projects & initiatives

21

Capacity built1 (MW)

Recent projects1 (built & sold)Alamo

Size: 24 MWCOD: May ’15Buyer: Dominion

Maricopa WestSize: 28 MWCOD: Nov ’15 Buyer: Dominion

E.ON can rely on existing capabilities and experience also in solar PV

PV project delivery experience of >150 MW (14 projects), including development and construction

Current geographical focus in US

~90% of the projects delivered on time and on budget

In the past, focus on build to sell

Highly standardized development and engineering to ensure end-to-end process excellence and off-the-shelve PV project delivery

Professional Energy Marketing enables participation in tenders and RFPs

Key facts

1. Until end 2015. All capacity figures in MW DC (Direct Current)

49

152

1192

US Italy France Total

Page 22: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Agenda

22

E.ON Renewables Position

E.ON Renewables Business Approach

Market Trends

Page 23: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Market trends – renewable capacity growth

23

1. Installed capacity, excluding large-scale hydro; Growth expressed as CAGRSource: IHS

Recent market development Wind & Solar cover largest share of capacity

additions with focus on emerging markets Largest markets for Wind & Solar until 2020:

China, India, United States, Germany, Japan

Investments in Solar and Wind > $300bn of global renewable investments per

annum expected for the next 25 years

Key drivers for future growth Competitiveness: Renewables cost decreasing Security of supply: Fuel independence Industrial policy: Local content requirements Climate change: Low-carbon generation Competitiveness of storage

Global growth trendsGlobal1 (GW)

Renewables energy market growing fast, especially in Wind and Solar PV

EU1 (GW)

US1 (GW)1.000

500

0

4%

2030202520202015

1.000

500

0

4%

2030202520202015

0

1.000

2.000

203020252020

7%

2015

OthersOffshore wind Onshore windUtility PV

Page 24: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

E.ON key strengths

24

Well positioned to further benefit from continuous growth in renewables

Cost competitiveness & process excellence as well as best site selection and scale

Proven track record in the most attractive technologies across different markets

Solid position and grow path in core markets

Page 25: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Agenda

25

E.ON Renewables Position

E.ON Renewables Business Approach

Market Trends

Appendix

Page 26: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

Capturing attractive regulatory remuneration schemes

Current regulatory regimes and frameworks (cont’d)

26

Offshore ROC per MW Term: 20 years Remuneration: Wholesale price

plus 1.8-2.0 ROC/MWh based on COD

Applicable for all E.ON offshore parks in UK1

From 2014 move to CfD system (strike price in first auction £114.39-119.89/MWh)

Onshore Wholesale price plus ROC (valid

until 2016) Term: 20 years Remuneration: 0.9 ROC Applicable for all E.ON onshore From Feb. 2015, CfD system

(strike price in first auction £79.23-82.50/MWh )

UKOffshore FIT with direct marketing obligation Remuneration (EEG 14):

- Initial tariff: 154 €/MWh for 12 years (standard) or 194 €/MWh for 8 years (accelerated model)

- Base tariff: 39 €/MWh- Initial tariff extended for deep

waters/distance to shore Applicable for all E.ON offshore

parks in Germany2

Onshore FIT with direct marketing obligation Term: 20 years plus the year of

start of operation (initial tariff for min 5 years followed by base tariff)

Remuneration (EEG 14): - Initial tariff: 893 €/MWh- Base tariff: 49.5 €/MWh

From 2016: ~0.4% quarterly digression

Applicable for all E.ON onshoreparks in Germany

Germany Onshore Remuneration based wholesale

market or PPA, plus certain incentive features

Production Tax Credit ($23/MWh) or Investment Tax Credit (30% of investment) in place for projects completed by 2016

Renewable Energy Certificate (driven by state-level Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Accelerated Depreciation for tax equity investors and developers (MACRS)

Solar Remuneration based PPA plus

certain incentive features Investment Tax Credit (30% of

investment) in place for projects completed by 2016 – after drops to 10%

Renewable Energy Certificate (driven by state-level Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS)

US

1. Including Rampion2. Including Amrumbank and Alpha Ventus3. Base on reference turbine ROC: Renewables Obligation Certificate; CfD: Contract for Difference; FiT: Feed-In-Tariff

Page 27: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

E.ON project examples

27

E.ON has diversified portfolio of projects under construction

Summary

Rampion (COD ´18) 400 MW 20 years ROC scheme 75% share

Amrumbank (COD ´15) 288 MW FIT („Stauchnungsmodell“) 100% share

Countries with projects under development

Maricopa West1 (COD ´15) 28 MW 100% share To be disposed in ‘15

Colbeck's Corner (COD ´16) 200 MW Merchant 100% share

1. PV capacity in MW DC (Direct Current)

Page 28: 2015 Renewables Deep Dive final - E.ON...Owned portfolio, forecasted 2015 FY pro-rata share (includes Humber + Amrumbank both at 100%) Since 2007 E.ON has built a top-tier renewables

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts madeby E.ON Group Management and other information currently available to E.ON. Various known and unknownrisks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results,financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. E.ON SE doesnot intend, and does not assume any liability whatsoever, to update these forward-looking statements or toconform them to future events or developments.

Disclaimer