2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS)

Lessons Learned from Disastrous Typhoons

Manila-Philippines, 24 – 25 NOVEMBER 2015

BMKG

THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NATURAL DISASTERS

IN INDONESIA

OUTLINE

• Weather Systems in Indonesia• Climatology of TC Near Indonesia• The Impact of Northern/Southern

Hemisphere TC Over Indonesia

Monsoon

El Nino / La NinaDipole Mode MJO, Kelvin, Rossby

Cold Surge

ITCZ

TC

WEATHER SYSTEMS IN INDONESIA

TC

TC

BMKG

FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL >19 mm/day (2001-2012)

Wet Season Dry Season

Source Data; TRMM-3b42rt

BMKG

BMKG

BMKG

Average Number of TCs Near Indonesia

Update 22 Nov 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUN JUL AGS SEP OKT NOV DES

Jum

lah

Sikl

on T

ropi

s

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Rata

-rat

a Si

klon

JUMLAH AVERAGE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUN JUL AGS SEP OKT NOV DES

Jum

lah

Sikl

on T

ropi

s

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Rata

-rat

a Si

klon

TOTALAVERAGE

Number of TCs inside AoM of Jakarta TCWC

10

14

2124

17 17

69

68

4 5

16

23

27

32

21 22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NORTHERN

SOUTHERN

TOTAL

1984 - 2015

1977 - 2015

Since 2007, 3 TCs were developed inside Jakarta TCWC AoR :

Tropical Cyclone

PERIOD

DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008

ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010

BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014

Tropical Cyclone

PERIOD

DURGA 22 - 24 April 2008

ANGGREK 29 Sept - 04 Nov 2010

BAKUNG 11 – 13 Dec 2014

TC Anggrek

TC Durga

TC Bakung

Cases @ TY KOPPU and CHAMPI(11-25 Oct 2015)

Average of Streamline 925 mb(1980-2010)

Climatologically mean pattern of streamline 925mb compared to cases of TY Koppu and Champi period (11-25 Oct 2015).

The shaded colour show the value of low level divergence which represents the possibility of less convectivity.

The presence of TCs in Northern Hemisphere could strengthen and make broader of dry area in southern part of Indonesia, but in several places in northern part could develop signifikan weather.

TC DURGA22 – 24 April 2008

23 April 2008, 00 UTC

01 Nov 2010, 00 UTCTC ANGGREK

29 Sep – 04 Nov. 2010

TC BAKUNG11 – 13 December 2014

12 Dec 2014, 00 UTC

12 Dec 2014

TC Anggrek

TC Durga

TC Bakung

Average of Streamline, Convergence, & Wind SpeedIn Cases of TC Durga, Anggrek, & Bakung

BMKG

TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN

Track map of TC Gillian(March 2014)

Wave height map at TC Gillian event (18 March 2014)

BMKG

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRRILY

The occurrences of TC in southern hemisphere, especially in southern or western part of Australia could strengthen the ITCZ which passing Indonesian Region, so that high rainfall, high wind and extreme wave heights could be happen.

When TC develop in northern hemisphere near Indonesia, it could strengthen dry area in southern part of Indonesia and sometimes develop a potential of severe weather in several places in northern part.

BMKG