2015 annual housing market survey

7/23/2019 2015 Annual Housing Market Survey

1/73

2015 ANNUAL

HOUSING MARKETSURVEY

October 29, 2015

Oscar Wei, Senior Economist


2/73

METHODOLOGY

C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. Thequestions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughoutthat time.

The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 25,350 REALTORS

throughout California.The sample represented the geographicaldistribution of C.A.R. membership across the state. The survey askedREALTORS to provide information from their most recent salestransaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2015.

The survey instrument was a questionnaire with both multiple choice andopen-ended questions. There were 1,465 valid survey responses,

equivalent to a response rate of 5.8 percent. The margin of error for thissurvey was +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.


3/73

SALES HAVE BEEN STRONG AFTER A WEAK START

California, Sep 2015 Sales: 425,030 Units, +7.3%YTD, +6.9%YTY

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

Sep-15:425,030

Sep-14:397,490


4/73

INVENTORY CONTINUED TODECLINE FROM LASTYEAR

Sep 2014: 4.2 Months; Sep 2015: 3.7 Months

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-

Jul-08

Jan-

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


5/73

MARKET REMAINED COMPETITIVE,AS INVENTORY LEVEL CONTINUED TO BE LOW

53%53%

4.3

4.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

% with Multiple Offers

# of Multiple offers (Average)

SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


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33%33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%% of Sales above Asking Price

Long Run Average = 19%

ONE-THIRD OF HOMES SOLDABOVE THE ASKING PRICE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Med. Price Discount

Med. Weeks on MLS

0%, 2.1weeks

Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market




7/73

PRICE REDUCTION PRIOR TO AN OFFER BEING MADE

29%

8%

10%

13%

16%

24%

0% 20% 40%

$1,000 or less

$1001 - $5,000

$5,001 - $10,000

$10,001 - $20,000

$20,001 - $50,000

More than $50,000

Amt. of Price Reduction

Q.Was there any price reduction made to the list price prior to an offer being made to the property?Q. How much was the price reduction?

26%

75%

Price Reduction

Yes No



Avg. Reduction $ = $15,000


8/73

INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY

IN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009

BUT REMAINED TIGHT

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

2.5

3.6

3.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

Bay Area Central Valley So CA

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes



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TIGHT SUPPLY CREATED MOREMARKET COMPETITION IN THE BAY AREA

4

3 3

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

San Francisco

Bay Area

Southern

California

Other Counties in

California

Number of Multiple Offers



36%

56%

63%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other Counties in

California

Southern California

San Francisco Bay

Area

Percent with Multiple Offers


10/73

IMBALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BID UPHOME PRICES, PARTICULARLY IN THE BAY AREA

$40,000

$11,000

$6,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

SF Bay

Area

So CA Other

Counties in

CA

Amt. over Asking Price



20%

25%

62%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other Counties inCA

So CA

SF Bay Area

% with Sold PriceAbove

Asking Price8.6%

2.3% 2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

SF Bay

Area

So CA Other

Counties in

CA

% over Asking Price


11/73

REASONS FOR BUYING

Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?

23%

19%

16%

14%

5%

4%

4%

4%

1%

11%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home

Desired Better Location

Investment/ Tax Considerations

Change in Family Status

Changed Jobs

Retirement/Move to Retirement Community

Desired Smaller Home

Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default

Other




12/73

DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT & SECOND/ VACATIONHOMES DROPPEDTO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Vacation/Second Home

Investment/Rental

Property

% toTotal Sales

5%

Long Run Average: 12 %

13%


13/73

INVESTOR STRATEGY: STILL BUYING TO RENT

Investment to Flip

Rental Property


14/73

SHARE OF CASH BUYERS IS THE LOWEST SINCE 2009

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35% % ofAllCash Sales

One-fifth of buyers paid with all cash

The share of all cash buyers is the

lowest in the last 6 years




15/73

THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS DROPPEDTO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 8YEARS

4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Q. Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another country who wished topurchase residential real estate in the U.S.?




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ALL CASH INTERNATIONAL BUYERS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%100%

International Buyers Domestic Buyers

42%20%

59%73%

All cash Obtained financing




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INTENDED USE FOR PROPERTY? HOME

2%

21%

76%

6%

13%

82%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Vacation/Second Home

Investment Property

Primary Residence

Domestic Buyers

International Buyers




18/73

71%

14%

6% 4% 2% 4%

72%

12%6%

3% 2% 5%

77%

9%5%

3% 1% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 1 2 3 4 5 or more

2013

20142015

# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months

% Who Sold to International Buyers

Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey


REALTORS WORKED WITH INTERNATIONAL BUYERSIN THE PAST 12 MONTHS


19/73

COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER

China (43%)

Mexico (8%)

South Korea (8%)




20/73

REASONS TO BUY IN CALIFORNIA

Mild year-around weather Advanced Educational Opportunities

System # of Campuses

Examples

Universityof California 10 Universityof California,Berkeley

Universityof California, LosAngeles

Universityof California,Riverside

Universityof California, SanDiego

CaliforniaStateUniversity

23 Cal State University,Fullerton

Cal State University,Northridge

Cal State PolytechnicUniversity, Pomona

California CommunityCollege

109+ Santa Monica College Pasadena City College

Private University Hundreds California Institute ofTechnology

Pepperdine University Stanford University Universityof Southern

California

Amazing outdoor environment


21/73

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS REMAINSBELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

29.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%




22/73

REASONS FOR BUYINGFIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT

Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?

55%

10%

9%

8%

7%

3%

1%

0%

1%

7%

9%

23%

19%

16%

4%

5%

5%

5%

1%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

First-Time Buyers

Repeat Buyers




23/73

THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT INCHED UP FROM 2014

$74,500

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price

SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

Q. What was the amount of downpayment?


24/73

11.3%

6.4%

6.9%

3.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

All Hombuyers First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

Down Payment

PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT



25/73

PROPORTION OF TRANSACTIONS WITH SECONDMORTGAGES

Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?

4.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Percent of Home Sales with Second Mortgage



26/73

PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH SECOND MORTGAGE

6.4%

3.7%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers



27/73

Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.

WHILE THE SHARE OF FHA INCREASED FROM THERECENT LOW, IT WAS STILL MUCH LOWER THAN 2009

16% 19%

7%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

FHA VA



28/73

YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 All Sellers


Why arent they selling sooner?

Affordability challenge: Low rate on current mortgage

Low property taxes

Concerned with capital gains

Why list when there is nowhereto go I can afford?

Could not qualify for amortgage today

Demographics


29/73

56%

$1,500

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% needs Repair Median Repair Costs/Price Adjustment

REPAIR COSTS/PRICE ADJUSTMENTS

Q. Did the seller repair items, make adjustments to the purchase price, or make any other concessions duringescrow due to discovered defects?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


30/73

SELLERS WITH NET CASH LOSS DROPPED TO THELOWEST LEVEL IN THE LAST 9YEARS

6.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Long Run Average = 11.9%

Q.What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


31/73

NET CASH GAIN TO SELLERS HIGHEST SINCE 2007

$120,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Q.What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?


32/73

MORE INVESTORS SELLING THEIRINVESTMENT PROPERTIES

23.4%

26.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Long Run Average = 19.1%

Q. How was the property occupied?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


33/73

MORE THAN HALF OF ALL SELLERSARE PLANNING TO BUY ANOTHER HOME

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



34/73

LOCATION OF SELLERS NEW HOME

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44%

In another county in

California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20%

In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22%

Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%

Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


35/73

REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTYALL BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)

14%

16%

5%

10%

9%

13%

8%

3%

3%

18%

23%

14%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

5%

0%

14%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Housing affordability

Quality of life

Second home

Shorter commute to work/school

Job change

Closer to family/relative

Quality of school

Retired

Quality of community services

Other

2014 2015



36/73

BUYERS BY GENERATION


32%Millennials1 8 3 5

40%GenX3 6 5 0

24%Baby Boomers5 1 6 9

5%Silent Gen70 and older


37/73

HOME OWNERSHIP RATE NEARLY 4 TIMES HIGHERAMONG BOOMERS

Baby Boomers

75%

22%

3%

Own

Rent

Other

Millennials

20%

41%

39%

Own

Rent

Other

Q. What is your current living situation?SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


38/73

REASONS FOR BUYINGMILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS


41%

18%

11%

10%

6%

6%

0%

0%

1%

7%

13%

13%

18%

16%

5%

3%

10%

7%

0%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

Millennials

Baby Boomers



39/73

BOOMERS HAVE LESS DEBT THAN MILLENNIALSTHAT PREVENTS BUYING A HOME

Q.What type of debt do you have that would make it difficult to buy a home?

35%

12%

7%

2%

11%

53%

41%

17%

8%

7%

4%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Credit cards

Auto loan

Consolidated personal loan

Private loan from friend/ relative

Other

None

Millennials

Boomers

SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


40/73

FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS:MILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS

Millennials Baby Boomers

Median Household Income $100,000 $130,000

Median Home Price $470,000 $505,000

Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,538 $1,516

Median Downpayment (in $$) $50,000 $79,500

Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 13.1% 20%

SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


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USE OF PROPERTY

Q. How will the property be occupied?

92.8%

70.1%81.6%

5.8%

17.3% 13.1%

1.4%

12.6%

5.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Millennials Baby Boomers All

Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home



42/73

WHAT MILLENNIALS AND BABY BOOMERS WANT?


Millennials Baby Boomers All Buyers

Median Sales Price $470,000 $505,000 $495,000

Median Square Footage 1,600 1,779 1,707

Median Age of Structure 36 33 35

% of Detached Single-Family 75.6% 71.6% 76.6%

% of Condo/Townhome 19.8% 17.5% 15.5%


43/73

DEMOGRAPHICS: ETHNICITY

56%

17%

14%

10%4%

White

Asian

Hispanic

Other

Black

SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


44/73

HOUSING DEMAND WILL INCREASE,LARGELY DRIVEN BY MINORITIES

SOURCE: Urban Institute

2.7 4.6 2.2 2.18.9 11.6

1.3 4.8 1.9 2.5

9.1 10.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

White Hispanic Black, Non-

Hispanic

Other, Non-

Hispanic

Total Minority Total

Projected household growth, 2010-2010

Projected household growth, 2020-2030

Net new households, millions

23%

46%39%

18%12%

18%19%

100%

100%

88%77%

24%

2010-2020


45/73

SHARE OF MINORITY HOME BUYERSHAS GROWN OVER TIME

Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property

68.5%

5.0%

14.1%

7.5%

55.8%

4.2%

19.9%

12.5%

56.3%

3.6%

14.0% 16.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White/Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Asian

1995 2005 2015



46/73

SHARE OF MINORITY HOME SELLERSALSO HAS GROWN OVER TIME

Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property

86.7%

2.0% 4.1% 4.6%

70.8%

4.7%10.4% 9.7%

70.7%

3.2%8.6% 8.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White/Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Asian

1995 2005 2015



47/73

REASONS FOR BUYINGMINORITY BUYERS VS. ALL BUYERS


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

All Buyers Minority Buyers



48/73

REASONS FOR BUYINGHISPANIC BUYERS VS. ASIAN BUYERS


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Tired of Renting

Desired Larger Home




Changed Jobs




Other

Hispanic Buyers Asian Buyers



49/73

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP

Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

38.8%

45.7%

33.0%29.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Minority Hispanic Asian All

% First-Time Home Buyers




50/73

USE OF PROPERTY

Q. How will the property be occupied?

82.1% 89.3%

75.4% 81.6%

14.3%

7.7%

18.6% 13.1%

3.6% 3.0% 6.0% 5.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home



51/73

CHARACTERISTICS OF HOMES


MinorityBuyers

HispanicBuyers

AsianBuyers

All Buyers

Median Sales Price $467,000 $324,000 $675,000 $495,000

Median Square Footage 1,700 1,600 1,783 1,707

Median Age of Structure 35 30 35 35

% of Detached Single-Family 78.7% 85.0% 75.6% 76.6%

% of Condo/Townhome 14.8% 9.8% 18.0% 15.5%


52/73

BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE I


MinorityBuyers

HispanicBuyers

AsianBuyers

All Buyers

Median Household Income $100,000 $80,000 $170,000 $120,000

Median Monthly Mortgage

Payment $1,673 $1,443 $1,969 $1,669

Median Downpayment (in $$) $60,500 $13,875 $120,000 $74,500

Median Downpayment (in % toPrice)

18.4% 5.0% 20.2% 19.6%


53/73

BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE II


MinorityBuyers

HispanicBuyers

AsianBuyers

All Buyers

% of buyers with zero down payment 4.2% 7.4% 2.1% 4.4%

% of cash buyers 17.6% 11.3% 25.7% 21.0%

% of home buyers with a second mortgage 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.1%

% with FHA Loan 25.9% 46.3% 8.6% 19.3%


54/73

REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY(ALL BUYERS VS. MINORITY BUYERS)

23%

14%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

5%

0%

14%

39%

9%

4%

14%

7%

5%

9%

1%

1%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


Quality of life

Second home


Job change


Quality of school

Retired


Other




55/73

REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTYMINORITY BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)

23%

11%

3%

8%

6%

16%

12%

1%

2%

19%

39%

9%

4%

14%

7%

5%

9%

1%

1%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


Quality of life

Second home


Job change


Quality of school

Retired


Other

2014 2015



56/73

HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT

Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Represented Them in Previous Home Transaction

Referral from a client

Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor

Recommendations of Friends

Refferal from Business Associates

Web page/InternetOpen House

Walk in /Floor Call

Door-to-Door Farming

Direct Mail Marketing

Yard Signs

Listing Agent for Home Purchased

Relocation Referral

Print Ads/Newspaper & MagazineSocial Media

Telephone Marketing

Other




57/73

HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT

Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Represented Them in Previous Home Transaction

Referral from a client

Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor

Recommendations of Friends

Refferal from Business Associates

Web page/InternetOpen House

Walk in /Floor Call

Door-to-Door Farming

Direct Mail Marketing

Yard Signs

Listing Agent for Home Purchased

Relocation Referral

Print Ads/Newspaper & MagazineSocial Media

Telephone Marketing

Other

Hispanic Buyers Asian Buyers



58/73

BUYERS NEED MOST HELP WITHFINDING THE RIGHT HOME

12%

3%

12%

18%

20%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Other

Determining affordability

Preparing transaction documents

Price Negotiation

Negotiating terms of sale

Finding the right home

Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?

SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


59/73

SELLERS NEED MOST HELP WITHNEGOTIATING TERMS OF SALE

7%

10%

12%

16%

17%

18%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Other

Negotiating the price

Preparing transaction documents

Preparing the home for sale

Marketing the property

Setting the right price

Negotiating terms of sale

Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?

SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


60/73

2016 FORECAST


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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p 2016f

SFH Resales (000s) 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 407.5 433.0

% Change -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 6.3% 6.3%

Median Price ($000s) $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $476.3 $491.3

% Change 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2%

Housing Affordability

Index 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 31% 27%

30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5%

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


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2015 annual housing market survey

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