2014 top 10 predictions for bc/dr by dr. steven b goldman

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My Top Ten Business Continuity Predictions / Trends for 2014

Dr. Steven B. Goldman

2 MY TOP TEN BUSINESS CONTINUITY PREDICTIONS/TRENDS FOR 2014

Dr. Steven B. Goldman is an internationally recognized expert and consultant in Business Continuity, Crisis Management, Disaster Recovery, and Crisis Communications.

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AGENDA

• Welcome and Introduction • My Top Ten BC/DR Predictions/Trends for

2014 • Wrap up • Questions • Conclusion • Adjourn

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AN UNEXPECTED EVENT WILL SOON MAKE YOUR LIFE MORE EXCITING

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CAVEATS

• These are my observations –  Yours may differ

• Well, an observation or two may not be completely mine

–  References are provided

•  “What does this mean to you?” –  Added after each trend/prediction –  You have to adapt this guidance to your particular situation

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2014

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10 There has been an overall worldwide increase in the number of natural disasters

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INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS

•  Incidence of natural disasters worldwide has steadily increased

• Climate-related disasters –  Floods, storm surge, and coastal flooding; storms, tropical cyclones,

local storms, heat/cold waves, drought, and wildfires –  (2000 to 2009) = 3 x (1980 to 1989)

• Geophysical disasters –  Earthquakes, volcanoes, dry rock falls, landslides, and avalanches –  Fairly stable since the 1970's

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO YOU?

• Expect these events

• Do not surrender to Mother Nature!

• Be prepared for whatever Mother Nature can dish out

• Planning, preparation, and execution

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9 The rise in malicious cyber attacks will continue

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MCAFEE® LABS THREATS REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2013

• Several familiar trends • New trends

–  Steady growth in mobile and overall malware –  A sharp upturn in worldwide spam –  The shutdown of the online market Silk Road, which sold drugs

and other illegal products –  The emergence of the “Deep Web,” an online supply for

cybercriminals –  An increase in the use of digital currencies by cybercriminals to

maintain anonymity for their illegal activities

http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdf

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http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/

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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxd

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MCAFEE® LABS THREATS REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2013

• Mobile malware rose by 33 percent • New malware of all types exceeded 20 million

this period • All-time tally to more than 172 million binaries • New rootkits, AutoRun threats • Signed malware increased by almost 50

percent

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CONSIDER THESE:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304644104579192393329283358

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-reported/2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-hit-neiman-marcus/

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AND CONSIDER THESE:

http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2

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• More and more corporate assets and operations are online

• Your organization must have a cyber attack prevention program as well as a response and recovery strategy

•  Think outside the box your cell phone came in. Can you survive an attack on your mobile communications assets?

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8 Some disruptions are becoming more predictable

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SOME DISRUPTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE PREDICTABLE

• On the one hand –  Economies around the world have become increasingly

vulnerable to the ever-changing nature of the sun. Solar flares can disrupt power grids, interfere with high-frequency airline and military communications, disrupt Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, interrupt civilian communications, and blanket the Earth’s upper atmosphere with hazardous radiation

• On the other hand –  With more and more massive amounts of technology and data

available, we are more adept at better predicting weather patterns, natural disasters, system breakdowns, even human threats.

–  Forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are expecting G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm conditions to occur on Earth Jan. 9 and 10

http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.html

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• Have strategies and plans that become more preventative than reactive

–  An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of response

• Listen and anticipate problems –  Weather, cyber attacks, pandemic, power outages

• Don’t wait for a hurricane to begin implementing response plans

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http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2012/10/31/sandy102612_custom-f3f593114fe3a3dd3479472fb0fd855e3dfff4fb-s6-c30.gif

High-Def Storm Models Yielded Accurate Predictions

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions

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7 Disruptions should be considered the norm.

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•  Business interruptions - whether acts of nature or man-made or technical glitches - are no longer outlying anomalies, but are becoming the norm.

•  Consider the potential for business disruption like bad weather – you don’t like it, but it’s part of business life; be prepared to deal with it

•  Embrace interruption as part of expected “day to day” processes and plan accordingly

•  Most days are relatively nice; but be prepared for the occasional thunderstorm.

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6 Cloud-to-cloud continuity will get serious with Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)

Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-cloud_computing_predictions_for_2014_cloud_joins_the_formal_it_portfolio

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CLOUD-TO-CLOUD CONTINUITY WILL GET SERIOUS WITH SAAS

• Disaster recovery (DR) is a leading driver for public cloud use

–  Mostly by enterprises looking to improve the resiliency of mid- to low-end apps

–  For smaller companies putting their entire recovery strategy in the cloud

• Cloud-based DR will go cloud-to-cloud –  Cloud-to-cloud backups for mainstream SaaS offerings


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• A new market of backup solutions is rising to meet this need

–  These solutions automate the protection of critical data that is stored with SaaS providers so organizations can recover this data if it is accidentally, or maliciously, deleted

•  Forrester wants to be clear that this is not replacing DRaaS and cloud DR, but it's more of an extension/different route that will be big in 2014. DRaaS is still continuing along at a very steady pace.


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5 The role of the Business Continuity / Disaster Recovery professional is changing for the better

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Old Joke: What is the difference between a highly paid/highly recognized BCP Manager and a Unicorn?

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Old Joke: What is the difference between a highly paid/highly recognized BCP Manager and a Unicorn?

Answer: They are both mythical creatures!

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Trending in Business Continuity - An Assessment of Data Collected Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc. - June 2012

www.BCManagement.com

“One of our studies has shown that since 2009, respondents have indicated that IT/Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity strategies have increasingly supported organizational needs.” Cheyene Marling President, BC Management, Inc.

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OTHER 2012 BCM INDUSTRY SURVEY TRENDS

•  Increased awareness at the chief officer level

•  A shift in program sponsor from mid management/ management to the chief officer level/ board committee.

•  The chief level program sponsors are stepping up their level of engagement with the business continuity management program.

•  Adding more full-time, permanent personnel dedicated to the program and a decrease in downsizing of personnel in the next year.

•  A shift to an enterprise-wide resiliency focus with increased executive support

•  Acknowledgement of increased standards that will more than likely continue to evolve the profession in the future.

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•  Life is Good!

• We are becoming recognized more and more

• We are being taken seriously

• We have a career path –  Vice President, Business Continuity –  Vice President, Disaster Recovery –  Chief Resiliency Officer

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4 Communications expectations are increasing: The speed of information is faster than the speed of light

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COMMUNICATIONS DEVICES ARE INCREASING

http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/product-reviews/research-institute/12-companies-with-great-recycling-programs

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THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGY MOVES FAST!

• To reach 70% of US households: –  Basic landline telephone: 52 Years –  Cell phones: 17 years

• Apple App Store –  2008 ~ 500 apps –  Today > 1,000,000 apps

• Facebook –  0 to > 1.1 Billion users 9 years

Apps image from : http://www.geek.com/apple/apple-app-store-subscriptions-1314201/

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http://bostonherald.com/business/technology/technology_news/2014/01/the_new_stars_of_social_media

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•  You need to keep up with the technology

•  This technology allows your employees, customers, suppliers, etc., to communicate quickly and freely

•  On the other hand, this technology raises the expectation that your employees, customers, suppliers, etc., will be contacted quickly when necessary – like in an emergency

•  Communication plans need to factor in these expectations

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Boston Marathon bombings More than 27 million Tweets were sent as the world discussed the bombings, the manhunt, and the spirit of #bostonstrong. After shutting down an entire city, Boston Police announced the capture of Boston Marathon terror suspects. This single tweet eliminated the tense atmosphere in the city.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/

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WHAT DOES THIS ALSO MEAN TO YOU?

•  Fast initial communications are more important today than ever.

• You have to get in front of an event before it swallows you up.

• Bad advice from a public relations manual: –  “Assess severity, length of issue and media life. If you believe this is a

very small ‘flash in the pan’ it may be best to not make public statements for 24-48 hours and see how quickly the issue goes away.”

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3 Social Media will continue to drive BC/DR response.

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SOCIAL MEDIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BC/DR RESPONSE

• Social media is here to stay

• A powerful tool to notify and communicate before, during, and after an event

• Can also be a burden to crisis responders –  Incorrect information, rumors, everyone is a spokesperson

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Severe Weather Tweets

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Severe Weather Tweets

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SOCIAL MEDIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BC/DR RESPONSE

•  How Dan in West Virginia learned about the WV spill

–  Dan lives and works in West Virginia

–  Leak occurs just south of Dan’s home

–  Someone in WV posts the event on Facebook

–  Dan’s sister lives in upstate NY; she reads about the event on Facebook

–  Dan’s sister calls Dan in WV and informs him of the leak

–  Dan has not heard about the event!

–  15 minutes later, local news announces the leak

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•  Organizations must know how to: –  Leverage social media –  Harness its power rather than let it control your response

•  Companies/agencies need policies on what information (non-emergency response) employees can give out to the public, the media, and even their family & friends.

•  Employees need to know and understand your communication policies and protocols, especially during a disaster

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• Make sure you have emergency communications policies such as:

–  “Statements to the public and news media concerning an emergency at {Organization} are to be made only with the knowledge and guidance of the Emergency Communications Team.”

–  “Information requests made to individual {Organization} employees and contractors by the public, media, and government officials must be referred to the Emergency Communications Team.”

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• What about the social media? You should have a policy such as:

–  “Employees shall not use social media to discuss, describe, or inform anyone about any aspect of an emergency at {Organization}”

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• But wait!!!

• 

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• But wait!!!

•  Is that policy legal???

Picture from: http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2011/10/24/

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A LAWYER’S PERSPECTIVE: JULIE MEADOWS-KEEFE OF THE LAW FIRM GROSSMAN, FURLOW & BAYÓ

•  It’s a thorny issue. That policy could raise some First Amendment and other issues

•  If employee is in a life or death situation. . . –  Probably no company discipline

•  If employee tweeting on a personal account. . –  Violating company policy but within First Amendment protections

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A LAWYER’S PERSPECTIVE: JULIE MEADOWS-KEEFE OF THE LAW FIRM GROSSMAN, FURLOW & BAYÓ

• Policy should be a “Strong Recommendation” not to discuss events on social media

•  If you do, make sure it is clear that the message is identified as a personal opinion

• Realistically: hard to implement or enforce

• Organizations should: –  Train all employees on your policies and –  Assume employee common sense

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2 Twitiots will continue

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TWITIOTS WILL CONTINUE

• Several people will become famous – or infamous – by tweeting/blogging something stupid!

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Justine Sacco - the now-former

Communications Director for IAC - lost

her job approximately 12

hours after boarding her flight.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-Im-white-causes-international-outrage-likely-fired.html

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.html

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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433

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•  Everyone with an internet connection/e-mail/twitter account – essentially all your employees - must understand that by pressing the “Send” button, you are sending your “personal” message to potentially over 2.4 Billion people

•  That’s over one third of the world’s population

•  There are no take-backs

•  Again, what is your social media policy during an emergency?

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http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/04/29/article-1381820-0BD506C300000578-443_964x635.jpg

SEND

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1 Be prepared for the Matrix, the Robot Uprising, or Skynet!

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1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Survive_a_Robot_Uprising

http://technorati.com/technology/article/skynet-goes-active-terminator-judgment-dayapril/

http://pogoprinciple.wordpress.com/2012/10/03/

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KEEP THE MACHINES FROM TAKING YOU OVER!

• Store data in offline forms and/or on local devices

• Keep continuity plans on paper and/or on local devices

• Have emergency shutdown protocols for your data center

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• These three strategies can and should be applied to more mundane – and more likely – disasters

–  Loss of power to your data center –  Evacuation of the data center –  Loss of access to the building containing the data center

•  If you have a data center building evacuation:

–  Can you quickly and orderly shutdown (and transfer) your data center?

–  How do you access plans and data that are stored online or on your network?

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Virtual_Private_Network_overview.svg

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Virtual_Private_Network_overview.svg http://www.outagealarm.com/

Loss of power

Robot Uprising or

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BONUS TREND

Your company/agency/ organization will be impacted by a disaster in 2014

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YOUR COMPANY/AGENCY/ORGANIZATION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A DISASTER IN 2014

• Directly –  Hurricane –  Credit card hacking –  Chemical spill/release –  Etc, etc, etc.

•  Indirectly –  Post-Target system checks –  Crisis affecting your neighbor –  Crisis affecting your industry –  Etc, etc, etc.

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• Are you prepared????

•  The usual “stuff” –  Management support, BIA, plans, procedures, staffing, equipment,

facilities, training, drills, exercises, lessons learned, etc

• Collateral damage from someone else’s crisis

• Management awareness?

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Wrap up

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PREDICTING TRENDS IS ALWAYS A RISK

http://www.nationalreview.com/tags/boston-marathon-bombing#!

http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2013/10/boston-celebrates-red-sox-world-series-victory/#6

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QUESTIONS?

75 REFERENCES Trend Information Source

10 §  http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1109877?query=featured_home §  http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/2014_01_07_press_release.aspx

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§  http://www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-quarterly-threat-q3-2013.pdf §  http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/11/18/swansea-police-pay-ransom-after-computer-system-was-hacked/

§  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/56b4382c-5ea7-11e3-8621-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2q6R7apxd §  http://blogs.adobe.com/conversations/2013/10/important-customer-security-announcement.html

§  http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/target-says-70-million-customers-were-hit-by-dec-data-breach-more-than-first-reported/2014/01/10/0ada1026-79fe-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html

§  http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57617075-83/credit-card-hackers-hit-neiman-marcus/

§  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dick-cheneys-heart/2/ §  http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/04/hackers-find-weaknesses-in-car-computer-systems/

8 §  http://www.noaa.gov/features/01_economic/spaceweather_3.html §  http://www.npr.org/2012/10/31/164046039/high-def-storm-models-yielded-accurate-predictions

7 None

6 §  Rachel Dines, Forrester Research, for her contribution to http://blogs.forrester.com/james_staten/13-12-04-cloud_computing_predictions_for_2014_cloud_joins_the_formal_it_portfolio

5 §  “Contingency Management Trends; What are the most “successful” programs doing right?” presentation by Cheyene Marling, October 2013 §  Trending in Business Continuity - An Assessment of Data Collected Between 2009 – 2011; Prepared by BC Management, Inc. - June 2012

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§  http://visualizingeconomics.com/2008/02/18/adoption-of-new-technology-since-1900 §  Boston MA Globe, January 8, 2014: “Apple says $10b spent in app store”, Associated Press story

§  Facebook Reports First Quarter 2013 Results - Facebook. Investor.fb.com (May 1, 2013). Retrieved on July 21, 2013 §  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2396909/Police-inundated-calls-cable-outage-Breaking-Bad-began.html

§  http://www.forbes.com/sites/markfidelman/2013/12/14/twitter-these-are-the-most-popular-tweets-of-2013/

§  http://www.mvma.org/MediaResources/3-Crisis%20Communications.pdf

3 §  Julie Meadows-Keefe of the law firm Grossman, Furlow & Bayó; personal conversations, January 9, 2014 §  http://www.gfblawfirm.com/bio_keefe.html

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§  http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/12/23/justine-sacco-and-the-self-inflicted-perils-of-twitter/ §  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527330/Blonde-female-PR-executive-tweets-Going-Africa-Hope-I-dont-AIDS-Just-kidding-Im-white-

causes-international-outrage-likely-fired.html §  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/anthony-weiner-resigns-scandal_n_878161.html

§  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/pan-am-karine-vanasse-canceled-twitter-bridget-279433

§  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#4-anthony-weiner §  http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/twitter-gaffes-2011-alec-baldwin-ashton-kutcher-276424#6-karine-vanasse

1 §  Another tip of the hat to Rachel Dines: http://blogs.forrester.com/rachel_dines/13-04-01-continuity_planning_for_the_robot_uprising

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Dr. Steve Goldman

Web site: www. SteveGoldmanAssociates.com E-mail: [email protected]

The MIT BCP Course: http://shortprograms.mit.edu/cm

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MAY YOUR 2014 BE A YEAR OF UNEVENTFUL PREPAREDNESS!

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Thank you!

Dr. Steven B. Goldman

2014 top 10 predictions for bc/dr by dr. steven b goldman

Business

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number of natural disasters

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