2014 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY

West Contra Costa Unified School District

June 10, 2015

Prepared by:

Scope of Work

Davis Demographics has assisted WCCUSD since 2007

Demographic Services

• Researched relevant demographic data

• Map 2014/15 student data by residence

• Monitored development projects

• Create student resident population projections by study area for 2015/16 to 2024/25

• Alternate projection for charter school expansions

• Produced report detailing methodology, maps, charts and findings

Software Solutions

• SchoolSite Locator – Web application that allows the public to verify their resident school based on address

• SchoolSite Desktop – Allows staff ability to analyze student and data for attendance boundary analysis

Slow steady growth across region

Growth in Job Creation Counties

Jobs?City of Richmond unemployment rate has remainedapprox. 12% over the last five years.

Contra Costa County: Some Facts

Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, TomTom, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, EsriJapan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community

Population ChangeContra Costa Cities

Antioc

h

Brent

wood

Conco

rd

Danvil

le

Lafa

yette

Mar

tiniez

Pittsb

urg

Richm

ond

San R

amon

San P

ablo

Waln

ut C

reek

Contra

Cos

ta C

ount

y0.99%

1.00%

1.01%

1.02%

1.03%

1.04%

1.05%

1.06%

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Source: DDP from Census ACS 2010-13

West Contra Costa USD

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Births

Source: DDP from DOF Birth Data by Zip Code

Lowest # births in last 20 years

City of RichmondSchool Age Population

<5 Years 5 to 9 10-14 15-196000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: DDP from Census ACS 2010-13

2014 Student Forecast

The DDP PhilosophyProjections: Residence vs. Actual Enrollment

• Facilities should be located where the students live

• Justification:• Reduced District transportation cost• Increased ability to conduct long term facility planning• Increased access for walking students• Accurately determine location of new facilities or consolidation of surplus facilities• Increased ability to identify future population trends• Attendance boundary adjustments are based upon student location• Program locations can be better aligned to actual student population

• Actual school enrollments do not necessary reflect area demographics• There becomes a disconnect of true demographic trends and where students attend school

• Difficult to predict future students’ school of choice• School consolidation should be based upon area student population

• Programs can be moved to other schools• School enrollment is influenced by many non geographic variables

• Curriculum or special programs• Intra-district transfers/open enrollment• District policy• Capacity relative to other schools (overflow)• Etc…

• Policies and programs can mask true demographic trends and area facility needs

Projection Calculations• Calculated for each of the district 401 Study Areas

• Ability to plan at a neighborhood level

• Based upon student data October 2014/15 and historical student data from 2011/12 – 2013/14

• Based upon actual student residence rather than current school of enrollment.

• Graduate 12th grade; Move up other grades

• Based upon three (4) factors that effect student population

• Incoming kindergarten class (partially determined from recent birth data by zip code)

• New residential development

• Mobility - Measures the migration of students in and out of the district. Including move ins, move outs, new students from infill housing, drop outs, private school movement, etc.

• Additional district-wide adjustments were made toaccount for charter school expansion

Multiple Years of Student Data

De Anza

El Cerrito

Hercules HS

Kennedy

PinoleValley

Richmond

GARVIN AVE

RICHMOND P

KY

HILLTOP DR

SA

NPA

BL

OA

VE

HILL ST

HILLTOP DR

ROAD 20

HA

RB

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R W

AY

CARLSON

BLVD

CA-4

23

RD

ST

MOESER LN

FAIRMOUNT AVE

ROBERT MILLER DR

CENTRAL AVE

CU

TT

ING

BLV

D

RU

MR

ILL

BLV

D SAN PABLO DAM RD

BARRETT AVE

ALHAMBRAVALLEY RD

MOESER LN

PINOLE

VALLEY RD

SYCAMORE

AVE

ERLANDSONST

AR

LING

TON

AV

E

13T

H

ST

FITZGERALD DR

AM

AD

OR

ST

ASHBURYA

VE

EL PORTAL DR

W CUTTING BLVD

BROOKSIDE DR

GARVIN AVE

TEHAMA

AVE

37

TH

ST

CO

LU

SA

AV

E

CA-4

HILLTOP DR

I-580

MANORRD

CA-4

SA

NP

AB

LO

AVE

I-580

FE

LIC

E

CA-4

WILLO

W AVE

WILLOW AVE

SAN

PABLO AVE

SAN

PA

BL

OA

VE

AP

PIA

NW

AY

APPIAN

WAY

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7T

HS

TS 2

3R

D S

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ARLINGTO

N

BLVD

CA

STR

O S

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22

ND

ST

I-80

I-80

I-80

I-80

BAY

VIE

W

AVE

CASTRO RANCH RD

VAL

LEY

VIE

W

RD

HA

RB

OU

R W

AY

S

GIA

NT

RD

S5

5T

HS

T

WILDCAT

CANYON RD

CA

STR

O S

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SA

NPA

BLO

AVE

BEA

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CREEKRD

Projections Calculated for Each Study Area

Analysis is completed at the study area

level, and summarized by

attendance area and District-wide

Useful for boundary planning,new site, and school consolidation analysis

Births by Zip Code

• Birth rates continue to fall from their 2007 peak

• Lowest # births in the last20+ years

• Anticipated smaller incoming kindergarten classes will contribute to a lower studentforecast for the District

Sources:Births by Zip Code -California Department of Health and Human Services2012 Birth data was the most recent data available at the time of the study *Zip Coe data does not correspond exactly with the W.C.C.U.S.D. boundary

Residential Development

• Much of the development planned within the District will be lower yielding Multifamily units

Student Yield Factors - District Wide*               

    K-6 7-8 9-12

Type Students Students Students

SFD 0.308 0.075 0.068

MFA 0.058 0.004 0.017

Note: Student Yield Factors were calculated by Jack Schreder and Associates and provided to DDP by the W.C.C.U.S.D staff

Mobility

> 1.000 = positive migration < 1.000 = negative migration

• Captures student migration in and out of the District

• The District as a whole is seeing people leave the District between 1st and 9th grade

10 Year ChangeTK-6 -2,663 (-15.7%)7-8 -639 (-15.7%)9-12 -251 (-3.1%)TK-12 -3,553 (-12.2%)

10 Year Forecast

Charter School Adjustments

• Area Charter School enrollment is expected to increase by 2,487 or 96% by 2019

• DDP Adjusted the Districtwide projections

*Current (2014) Charter School Enrollment and Projections as Provided by WCCUSD Staff

Charter School Analysis

• Of the sampling, 99% of charter students reside within the WCCUSD boundary

• Mapping of the sampling reveals that the students are concentrated in the lower income areas of the District

10 Year ChangeTK-6 -2,956 (-17.5%)7-8 -1,108 (-27.2%)9-12 -1,538 (-19.1%)TK-12 -5,602 (-19.3%)

10 Year Charter Adjusted

Projections

Private School Analysis

• Private school enrollment has fallen since 2012

Charter School Analysis

• Of the sampling, 99% of charter students reside within the WCCUSD boundary

• Mapping of the sampling reveals that the students are concentrated in the lower income areas of the District

Summary• Historical slow growth across Bay Area

• District area population is aging

• Declining births

• Local job situation- competition from other areas

• Minimal development

• Declining student population

• Charter school impact

• Overall economic climate hard to predict