2013 wage trends
DESCRIPTION
Washington State Employment Security DepartmentTRANSCRIPT
1
2013 wage trends
Labor Market and Performance Analysis Economic Symposium October 30, 2014 Olympia, WA Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman Labor Market and Performance Analysis
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Outline of presentation
1. Wage trends in Washington state 2. Minimum wage in Washington state
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Wage trends in Washington state
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Median hourly wage
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
5
Total nonfarm employment during recession and recovery
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA Washington
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
Total nonfarm employment vs. FTE employment
84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%
100%102%
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
FTE Nonfarm
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Employment by hourly wage, 2013
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
<$12 $12 -$18
$18 -$24
$24 -$30
$30 -$36
$36 -$42
$42 -$48
$48 -$54
$54+
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
8
Employment by hourly wage, 2007 to 2013
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
<$12 $12 -$18
$18 -$24
$24 -$30
$30 -$36
$36 -$42
$42 -$48
$48 -$54
$54+
2007 2013
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
9
Net employment change by hourly wage, 2007 to 2013
-30,000-20,000-10,000
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
<$12 $12 -$18
$18 -$24
$24 -$30
$30 -$36
$36 -$42
$42 -$48
$48 -$54
$54+
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
10
Job loss and recovery by wage range, 2007 to 2013
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
<$12 $12 -$18
$18 -$24
$24 -$30
$30 -$36
$36 -$42
$42 -$48
$48 -$54
$54+
peak-to-trough trough-to-present
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
11
Job loss and recovery by wage range, 2007 to 2013
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
<$12 $12 -$18
$18 -$24
$24 -$30
$30 -$36
$36 -$42
$42 -$48
$48 -$54
$54+
peak-to-trough trough-to-present
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Median and decile wages, 2013
$22.09 $9.50 $11.70 $14.30 $17.15 $20.33 $24.21 $29.41
$36.85 $47.75
$100.33
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th
Average wage by percentile, Washington state, 2013
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Change by decile, 2007 to 2013
$0.62 $0.22 $0.11 $0.17 $0.27 $0.49 $0.87 $1.44 $2.37
$3.72
$10.89
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
14
Change by decile, 2007 to 2013
2.9% 2.4%
1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 2.5%
3.7%
5.1%
6.9%
8.4%
12.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Change in hourly wage, 2003 to 2013
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Change in hourly wage, 1990 to 2013
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Median hourly wage
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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…with the average hourly wage…
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Infla
tion-
adju
sted
hou
rly w
age
Average hourly wageMedian hourly wage
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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…and the national average for nonsupervisory workers
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Infla
tion-
adju
sted
hou
rly w
age
Average hourly wageMedian hourly wageU.S. average
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Change in employment by hourly wage and by industry, 2007 to 2013
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000Agriculture
ConstructionAerospaceOther Mfg
Electronic RetailNon-Electronic
SoftwareOther Information
Banking/Ins./REComputer Systems Design
Other Prof. Serv.Temp Agencies
Other Bus. Serv.Health Care
Food ServicesState Govt.
K-12 EdOther Local Govt.
All Other
<$36/hour$36/hour+
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Individual workers, 2008 to 2013
Of the 1,150,825 who worked 1,560 hours or more in both 2008 and 2013:
Median increase of $1.77 in real hourly wages 32 percent had a drop in real
hourly wages
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$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint
Median change in hourly wage, five-year spans
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
25
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint
Percent of workers with a decline in wages over a five-year span
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint
All Workers <$16 in Base Year >$29.99 in Base Year
Median change in hourly wage, five-year spans, low-wage vs. high-wage workers
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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11%
16%
16%
13% 9%
7%
28%
<$10
$10 to $11
$11 to $12
$12 to $13
$13 to $14
$14 to $15
>$15
If you earned less than $12 in 2008, then in 2013, you earned…
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Minimum wage in Washington
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Topic Heading (optional) Minimum wage jobs
• $9.19 in 2013 • $9.32 in 2014 • $9.47 in 2015 • Highest state in the country • Oregon second at $9.10 in 2014 • San Francisco: $10.74 • Federal: $7.25
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Minimum wage over time
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00
$10.00
1962 1974 1986 1998 2010
U.S. UnadjustedState Unadjusted
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Minimum wage over time
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00
$10.00
1962 1974 1986 1998 2010
U.S. Inflation-AdjustedState Inflation-Adjusted
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Topic Heading (optional) Minimum wage jobs in this analysis
• $9.19 plus or minus 2 percent • $9.01 to $9.37
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Number of jobs that pay the minimum
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
UnadjustedSeasonally-Adjusted
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Percent of jobs that pay the minimum
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Unadjusted
Seasonally-Adjusted
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
35
Minimum wage jobs by industry
Food Services
Accommodations
Retail Trade
Agriculture
Health/Social Assistance
Business Services
Manufacturing
All Other
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Minimum wage jobs by industry
Full Service
Limited Service
Other FS Accommodations
Retail Trade
Agriculture
Health/Social Assistance
Business Services
Manufacturing
All Other
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
37
Minimum wage by region
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Total
Metropolitan Division
Metro Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Counties
West of Cascades
East of Cascades
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
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Minimum wage by county
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%San Juan
KingGarfield
SnohomishFerryState
JeffersonWahkiakum
ColumbiaWhatcomThurston
PierceWhitman
Walla WallaSpokane
ClarkMasonKitsap
KlickitatClallamLincoln
StevensIsland
Pend OreilleChelanCowlitzPacificSkagit
BentonGrays Harbor
LewisAsotinKittitas
SkamaniaDouglasFranklin
GrantYakimaAdams
Okanogan
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
39
Minimum wage by county
5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4%
Douglas
Franklin
Grant
Yakima
Adams
Okanogan
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
40
Topic Heading (optional) Two big questions:
• What do we know about the increase in the number of minimum-wage jobs? • Let’s compare 2004 and 2013
• Has the increase (or at least, lack of decline) in the minimum wage been felt further up the wage ladder? • Let’s look at the wage trends for higher-
than minimum low-wage jobs
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Topic Heading (optional) Increase in minimum-wage jobs
• 2004: 47,700 jobs, 2.3 percent • 2013: 67,100 jobs, 2.9 percent • Why?
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
42
6,114
2,499 19,400
Growth
Faster growth of high-minimum industries
Increase in percent of jobsthat were minimum-wage
Increase in minimum-wage jobs
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
43
Change in minimum wage due to internal factors, selected industries, 2004-2013
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Fruit Tree OrchardsManufacturing
Grocery StoresGas Stations
Other Retail TradeTransportation & Warehousing
Temporary Employment AgenciesOther Business Services
Health CareDay Care
Art, Entertainment & RecreationAccommodations
Limited Service RestaurantsAll Other Services
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
44
Change in minimum wage by region, 2004 to 2013
-0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0%
Total
Metropolitan Division
Metro Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Counties
West of Cascades
East of Cascades
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
45
Has the minimum wage pushed wages up?
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Minimum Wage Lowest 10% Next 10% Lowest 20%
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
46
Ratio of percentile wages to minimum wage
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Lowest Decile Lowest Quintile Second Decile
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
47
Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%State
AgricultureConstruction
ManufacturingWholesale
RetailTransportation
InformationFinance
Real EstateProfessional
Corporate OfficesBusiness ServicesPrivate Education
Health CareArts/Entertainment
Food & LodgingPerosnal Services
State GovtLocal Govt
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
48
Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%San Juan
KingGarfield
SnohomishFerryState
JeffersonWahkiakum
ColumbiaWhatcomThurston
PierceWhitman
Walla WallaSpokane
ClarkMasonKitsap
KlickitatClallamLincoln
StevensIsland
Pend OreilleChelanCowlitzPacificSkagit
BentonGrays Harbor
LewisAsotinKittitas
SkamaniaDouglasFranklin
GrantYakimaAdams
Okanogan
Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA
