2013 Rental Market Study

Anne RayJuly 31, 2013

2013 Rental Market Study

Affordable Housing Needs

Homeless Families & Individuals

Special Needs* Preservation, Public

Housing & Tenant Characteristics*

Farmworkers Fishing Workers

* New in 2013

Affordable housing needs are increasing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census and 2005 and 2011 American Community Survey

Low Income (<60% AMI), Cost Burdened (>40%) Renters, 2005-2011

411,008

553,035

710,790

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2000 2005 2011

More households are renting

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 and 2011 American Community Survey

Changes in Florida Households, 2005-2011

1%

-3%

10%

29%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

All Households Owners Renters Low-Income CostBurdened Renters

Rents are up, incomes are down

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census and 2005 and 2011 American Community Survey

Real Median Gross Rent and Median Renter Income (2011 $), Florida, 2000-2011

$25,000

$26,000

$27,000

$28,000

$29,000

$30,000

$31,000

$32,000

$33,000

$34,000

$35,000

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

2000 2005 2011

Median Gross Rent

Median Renter Income

ELI hardest hit; cost burden more common for others too

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census and 2005 and 2011 American Community Survey

Number of Households Paying More than 40 Percent of Income for Rent, Florida, 2000-2011

County, demographic analysis

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey; University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2012 Population Projections

Low-Income (≤60% AMI), Cost Burdened (>40%) Renter Households by County in Florida, 2013 59% of cost

burdened households in large counties, 37% medium, 4% small

Most (61%) 1-2 person households

212,797 age 55+ (30%), including 63,257 age 75+ (9%)

Affordable/AvailableNumber of Affordable Units, Affordable/Available Units, and Renter Households by Income, Florida, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey

Affordable/AvailableAffordable/Available Housing Units per 100 Renter Households at 0-30% AMI, Modified MSA and Non-Metropolitan Areas, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey

Affordable/AvailableAffordable/Available Housing Units per 100 Renter Households at 0-40% AMI, Modified MSA and Non-Metropolitan Areas, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey

Affordable/AvailableAffordable/Available Housing Units per 100 Renter Households at 0-50% AMI, Modified MSA and Non-Metropolitan Areas, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey

Affordable/AvailableAffordable/Available Housing Units per 100 Renter Households at 0-60% AMI, Modified MSA and Non-Metropolitan Areas, 2009-2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2011 American Community Survey

Homelessness: Results Summary

Demand Individuals: 42,476

36,771 from PIT 5,705 from DOE

Families: 31,148 6,333 from PIT 24,815 from DOE

Supply (HIC + AHI) Individuals:15,503 beds Families: 4,124 units

Homelessness: Estimating Demand & Supply

Demand

Point in Time: Shelters,

Unsheltered

Individuals: Single Adults, Married Adults, Unaccompanied Youth, Child

Siblings, Teen Parents w/children

Family Households: Adults w/children

Dept. of Education: Hotels/Motels, Doubled Up

Supply

Housing Inventory

Count

Transitional Housing

Permanent Supportive

Housing

Assisted Housing Inventory

Individual Beds Family Units

Florida Department of Education data

Select only doubled up (B), hotels/motels (E)

Divide into children with family (86%) and unaccompanied (11%) based on statewide counts

Convert children with family into households using 1.86 children/family (natl. statistic)

Aggregate counties to Continuum of Care regions

Continuum of Care Regions: IndividualsHomeless Individuals by Region, 2012

Continuum of Care Regions: FamiliesHomeless Families by Region, 2012

Level of Effort

LOE = Number of permanent supportive housing units/beds divided by number of individuals or families

Individuals Statewide LOE = 0.19 (i.e., 19 permanent supportive

housing beds for every 100 homeless individuals)

CoC regions range from 0.01 to 0.35

Families Statewide LOE = 0.07 (7 permanent supportive housing

units for every 100 families

CoC regions range from 0 to 0.43

Special Needs Definition An adult person requiring

independent living services in order to maintain housing or develop independent living skills and who has a disabling condition;

A young adult formerly in foster care who is eligible for services under s. 409.1451(5);

A survivor of domestic violence as defined in s. 741.28;

Or a person receiving benefits under the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program or the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program or from veterans’ disability benefits.

Section 420.0004 (13), Florida Statutes

Special Needs: Defining for Rental Market Study

Disability/benefits definition:

Age 18-64, with a disability, receiving Social Security (proxy for SSDI);

Age 18+, with a disability, receiving SSI; Age 18+, with a VA service-related disability rating

of 10 percent or more. 93,438 low-income, cost burdened renter

households meeting this definition (ACS)

Special Needs: Recipients of State Services

Survivors of domestic violence

8,419 households using emergency shelter (DCF) Youth aging out of foster care

5,052 eligible for RTI (DCF)

Special Needs

Core estimate

93,438 + 8,419 + 5,052 = 101,857 14% of statewide total of 737,435 low-income,

cost burdened renter households

Special Needs

Other estimates 24,073 persons in group quarters with same disability/benefits

definition 7,750 persons with severe mental illness, 7,929 with chronic

substance abuse in homeless PIT count 42,186 low income, cost burdened renters with severe

disabilities but no benefits 36,709 low income, cost burdened, owner occupied households

with adult child with severe disabilities State service recipients

51,116 adults with developmental disabilities 23,657 persons age 65+ in Long Term Care Community Diversion

Pilot 30,936 persons receiving Aging and Disabled Adult Medicaid waivers 165,078 adults receiving services for severe and persistent mental

illness

Thinking about 2016

Can Department of Education data identify younger children, family groupings?

Continued outreach re: HUD definition and PIT methods

County-level counts and inventories

Improving count of unaccompanied youth: The Youth Count! Study (http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412872-youth-count-process-study.pdf)

Rental Market Study links

Homelessness report: http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications/Homeless_RMS.pdf

All reports available at http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications3.html

Contact Anne Ray, 352-273-1195, aray@ufl.edu