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2013 NASUCA Meeting Integration of Intermittent

Renewable Resources Panel

Michael McMullenMISO

June 10, 2013

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MISO is one of the largest and most technologically advanced grid operators in the world

CurrentMISO

MISO w/Entergy

High Voltage Transmission - miles

49,670 65,170

Installed Generation - MW

132,296 162,296

Installed Generation - # of Units

1,259 1,431

Peak System Demand - MW

98,576 133,576

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MISO’s role is focused on a few key value-added areas

What We Do Implications

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MISO was formed to address federal requirements, but growth has been based on value creation

2013

• EntergyRegion

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MISO’s capacity is comprised primarily of coal and natural gas units…

MISO Nameplate Capacity 132,296 MW

Gas / Oil (32%)

Renewables (14%)

Nuclear (6%)

Hydro (30%)

Biomass (3%)

MISO Nameplate Capacity – Renewables18,734 MW

Other (2%)

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…but wind resources are growing rapidly

Registered nameplate wind capacity in the MISO region(in MWs)

ACTUALS FORECAST

MISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW

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Wind’s rapid growth is fueled by MISO’s rich wind resource base...

Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m

Source: Wind resource estimates developed by AWS Truepower

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…and renewable portfolio standards and goals adopted in MISO states

MT15% by 2025

ND10% by 2015

SD10% by 2015

MNXcel: 30% by 2030

25% by 2025

WI10% by 2015

MI10% by

2015 IA

105 MW

MO15% by 2021

IL25% by

2025

IN10% by

2025

KYNo RPS

State with RPS Mandate

State with RPS Goal

State with RPS Mandate or GoalMISO Existing Wind = 12,270 MWMISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW

Source: MISO, DSIRE – Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency

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Inherent characteristics of wind have significant operational impacts on MISO

• Variability of wind

• Poor correlation of wind and load

• Transmission congestion caused by wind location

• Congestion management

• Over and under commitment

• Ramp management

• Surplus generation events

• Market dispatch of intermittent units (DIRs)

• Enhanced wind forecasting

• Future ramp capability enhancement

Driver Market Issue Tools

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Monthly Energy Contribution from Wind(in GWh)

3,0732,923

2,339

1,4811,644

2,058

3,2673,053

2,909

3,874

3,0363,138

3,463

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Wind is variable by month…

Source: MISO Real-Time Operations and Transmission Asset Management Departments

9.5% 7.9% 5.8% 3.2% 4.0% 5.9% 9.3% 8.5% 7.4% 9.4% 8.1% 8.0% 9.8%Wind Energy as a % of MISO Energy

Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, April 2013

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0

20

40

60

80

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13Note: Weekends and holidays are considered off-peak and are excluded from the graph.

Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, January 2013 - April 2013

…and wind is variable day-to-day and doesn’t reliably correlate with load

Daily Wind Capacity Factor % for Peak Hours1/1/2013 – 4/30/2013

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Improved wind forecasting will allow for improved operations, but wind forecasting is not likely to become an exact science

  Day Ahead 4 hours Ahead Hour Ahead

Standard Deviation 765 MW 612 MW 486 MW

Mean Absolute Error 587 MW 476 MW 390 MW

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

5.3% 4.3% 3.5%

MISO Forecasting Accuracy: 1/1/2012 – 5/13/2013

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Challenges prior to MISO dispatching intermittent resources (DIRs)

• Rapid increase in wind penetration– Transmission expansion lagged wind expansion– Deployment in areas with little transmission– Increasing need for manual curtailments to manage congestion

• Challenges of manual curtailments– Highly manual process; time consuming for reliability coordinator– Tracking firm vs. non-firm transmission service – Manual curtailments not accounted for in security constrained

economic dispatch resulting in loss of price transparency– Manual curtailments less economic than automated security

constrained economic dispatch– Adverse settlement impacts on wind participants

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• Renewable generation is treated like any other generation resource in the market

• DIRs can participate in the real-time energy market• DIRs can automatically be dispatched up to a forecasted

limit based on an offer price and system conditions.– Participants submit a short term wind forecast instead of a hourly

economic maximum like other generation resources– This enables wind to submit offers and receive dispatch

instructions rather than be manually curtailed when transmission constraints limit renewable energy generation to reach the broader market region

Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) design features

Dispatchable Intermittent Resources enhance system wide operational and market efficiency and improve market transparency

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• DIRs launched on June 1, 2011• Registration required as of March, 2013 with limited

exceptions

Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) registration

Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW) Registered as DIRsWind Nameplate Capacity (MW)

Jun-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13

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MISO is able to capture ~95% of wind’s potential through economic dispatch

DIR Dispatch Below Economic Maximum (Left Axis)DIR Dispatched Energy (Left Axis)

% of DIR Dispatched Down (Right Axis)

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Wind variability has the potential to create a ramping challenge which may require improved tools and new market products to manage

• The current wind variability and profile impact ramp requirements as significantly as net scheduled interchange – Wind capacity levels expected from the region’s Renewable Portfolio

Standards will dramatically increase the operational difficulties – However, MISO’s large balancing area and geographic diversity help

minimize the issue at current wind penetration levels

• Current operational methods to manage this ramp include– Load and wind forecasting– Pre-commitment of units– Use of fast-start units and spinning reserves to manage unexpected

variability

• Improved operational and market methods under development– Improved load and wind forecasting– 30-minute reserve products– Ramping service product

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MISO’s regional planning enables more economicplacement of wind resources in the region

Combination design of wind generation build-out

Local design of wind generation build-out

Local Design = Renewable energy requirements and goals will be met with resources within the same state as the load

Combination Design = Renewable energy requirements and goals will be met with a combination of local resources and resources outside of the state with high ranking renewable energy zones

ILLUSTRATIVEILLUSTRATIVE

The economic benefit of optimizing wind into MISO’s footprint is $244 to $285 million in annual benefits

Source: MISO’s 2012 Value Proposition Study which was based on the results of the Regional Generation Outlet Study II