2013 king hall day 2 session 1 - 1

Testing the waters:Dogger Bank and Jutland

through the lens of a model for Command and Control

Dr Alexander KalloniatisJoint Operations Division

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b0/Grand_Fleet_sails.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bluecher_sinkend.jpg

Outline

• The question

• A Model for C2

• Test Case: Jutland (1916)

• Battle of Dogger Bank, 1915

• Dogger Bank Analysis

• Conclusions

HMS Lion, Ivan Berryman

http://www.military-art.com/mall/more.php?ProdID=1722

C2: an individual or a system?

• Australian Brigadier (C.2007):

“I am the C2 system!”

• WWMCCS/GCCS/GIG = NCW

The WWI Royal Navy Network

NCW … an ancient concept: “A line of First World War battleships should really be understood as a single weapons system …[to] coordinate … gunnery …[in a] system of systems …[provide] commander … accurate information … connect sensor to shooter … appropriate information was passed around the fleet in a timely manner.”

Geoffrey Till, Seapower: A Guide for the 21st Century.

Q.

• Can we detect the personality of the Commander through the artefacts of the Command and Control system?

Command and Control

• Pigeau-McCann1 definition:

– Command: creative expression of human will necessary to accomplish the mission.

– Control: those structures and processes devised by command to enable it and to manage risk.

– Command and Control: the establishment of common intent to achieve coordinated action.

1. Pigeau and McCann, “Reconceptualising Command and Control”, Can. Mil. J. 2002

Boyd* model for C2

• C2 is an ongoing cycle:

ObserveOrient

DecideAct

= OODA loop

*John R. Boyd, USAF COL (1927-1997), Korean War combat pilot, military strategist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Boyd56.jpg

A Unified C2 Model

Dynamical System:Phase Space

Analysis of the Battle of JutlandFrom Kalloniatis, Papers in Aust. Mar. Affairs 35, SPC-A Annual, 2010, 34-65

HMS Barham leads the 5th BS, Anthony Saunders

http://www.military-art.com/mall/more.php?ProdID=10629

Phases at Jutland

31st May – 1st June 19161. 14:28-15:58: “German coded message

intercepted…” Battlecruiser Duel: BCF vs SG

2. 15:58-17:28: BCF Run to the North3. 17:28-18:58: “Where is the Enemy?”

(CinC). Deployment of the Grand Fleet.4. 18:58-20:28: Clash of the Battle Fleets;

German about face.5. 20:28-21:58: Nightfall.6. 21:58-23:28: Tails of the Fleets

intersect7. 23:28-00:58: and engage

sporadically8. 00:58-02:28: but does

anyone inform the CinC?9. 02:28-03:58: Dawn and the Enemy has

escaped; Cease-Fire.

Jutland Data

AG Attack generally -10PAG Prepare to attack generally -10AS Attack Specific target -9PAS Prepare to Attack specific target -9ME+ Maneouvre towards Enemy -7ME- Maneouvre away from Enemy -6FS Form Screen -5PFS Prepare to Form Screen -5IE Information about Enemy State -4RE Reply about Enemy State -4QE Question about Enemy State -4IEC Information about Enemy Communications -3REC Reply about Enemy Communications -3QEC Question about Enemy Communications -3PES Prepare/Look out for Enemy Specific -2PEG Prepare/Look out for Enemy General -1QS Question about battle Space 0IS Information about battle Space 0QU Question about Unknowns State 0POG Prepare/Look out for Own General 1POS Prepare/Look out for Own Specific 2QOC Question about Own Communications 3ROC Reply about Own Communications 3IOC Information about Own Communications 3QO Question about Own State 4RO Reply about Own State 4IO Information about Own State 4X- Negative of any order X that has movement or attack content: it removes constraint on addressee to 5D Delegation of Responsibility/Discretion 5M0 Statement of move intent 5C Communicate 6AO Adjust Own Physical State, aside from Movement 7MP Move with reference to a Plan 8MS Move with reference to Space 9MO Move with reference to Own forces 10PMO Prepare to Move with reference to Own 10E Encouraging, morale boosting 11H Provide help 12PH Prepare to Help 12OH Offer, Suggest or Proposing Help 12SH Seek (Question) Help 12CU Change Unit 13FT Flag Transfer 13

Orientation and Scope of Intended Effect

Engage the Enemy’s right from 1 to 4

At 2.30 German Main Fleet in Lat …Long.. Course.. 16 knots.German coded message

intercepted from DZ to DR….

Did you get signal from CinC to close?

My position at 15:15, ..Lat..Long..course.. Speed.

Admiral intends to proceed at …

Remember traditions of glorious 1 June…

Submit van of Battleships follow Battle Cruisers. We can cut off whole of Enemy’s Battlefleet.

Command|

Control

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The Enemy

|Command

Own Forces

of

Control

OODA State

Extended Effect 6Immediate Action 5Delayed Action - specific time 4Preparatory to Effect 3Suggestion for Effect 2Information 1Correcting/disputing information -1Uncertainty in information being conveyed (preceded by IO,IE,RO,RE) -2Scrambled Communication/Received message does not match sent message. -3Not logged as having been received -4Question -5No answer: Unresponded Question -6

ADOO

FOGOFWAR

Keep close to me during the night.

Report when all ships are in station and correct.Admiral intends to proceed at …knots.

Am I to follow you or steer south after fleet?

An Enemy force, apparently consisting of 7 ships besides Destroyers …

CinC: Where is Enemy’s BF?SOBCF: Have sighted Enemy battlefleet bearing SSW.

Plotting the data

For every ‘From’ signal in a period of time plot the coordinates representing its C2 ‘content’. Build up count at each point.

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Jutland Phase 1: 14.28-15.58

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166 signals sent in 90 mins = 1.84 signals/min = signal every 32 s.

Hot Spots –A: Coordination.B: Adversary InfoC: Own info.D: Adversary QE: Higher IntentF: Attack adversaryG: Confusion about own.

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199 signals sent in 90 mins = 2.21 signals/min = signal every 27s.


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130 signals sent in 90 mins = 1.44 signals/min = signal every 41s.


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50 signals sent in 90 mins = 0.56 signals/min = 107 s.


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Observations and Validation I: Control

• Control, control, … immediate control … Jellicoe used his C2-system as a tightly coupled control network.

• “Jellicoe’s main fault was that ‘control’ was a contract he tried to make with fate: he feared losing it, sublimated the possibility that he might do so, and imposed a doctrinal regime which seemingly presumed to govern the very nature of warfare.”

• “Jellicoe’s desire for control and centralisation caused his command style to be .. Signals oriented …”

• “The over-centralization of British command-and-control at the time of Jutland is commonly attributed to the Victorian cultural conditioning of a service which had ‘forgotten what war was’.”

Andrew Gordon, Rules of the Game

Observations and Validation II: Insufficient focus on the Enemy

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• In particular, few signals for maneouvering with respect to the enemy.

• “… the Dreyer system [of fire-control] abetted an inhibition about one’s own movements, at the expense of a proactive interest in those of the enemy, and compounded the Grand Fleet’s psychosomatic command-and-control constraints.”

Gordon

The Battle of the Dogger Bank• 23 January 1915 Admiralty ‘Room 40’

decodes German signal of enemy plan. 14.10 info conveyed to CinC.

• 07.05 24 January: Beatty’s BCF intercept Hipper.

• 07.35: Hipper seeks to escape, slowed down by Blücher.

• 08.52: Beatty’s flagship Lion opens fire.

• British fire concentrates on Blücher and Seydlitz.

• 10.18: Lion hit by Derfflinger.• Hipper abandons Blücher.• 10.47< Lion seriously disabled, can

only signal by flag now. • 11.10-11.12: 2 concurrent signals

“Course NE” and “Engage enemy’s rear” But Beatty’s Intent: ships should pursue rest of German fleet†; Beatty begins transfer of flag from Lion. a/CO RADM Moore on NZ misunderstands signals and focuses British fire on disabled Blücher.

• 11.13-11.21: Last act on Lion, Beatty frantically signals “Keep nearer to the enemy”, but Moore too far away.

• Remaining German ships escape.• 12.02: “Cease firing” from NZ• 12.15: Beatty - “Shifted flag to

Princess Royal”† “It is inconceivable that anybody should have thought it necessary for 4 BCs to have turned on the … defeated … Blücher…” Beatty to Jellicoe.

Dogger Bank Data

Limitations

• Only 85 Telegrams and Signals published in Naval Staff Monograph.

• Not complete: Despatches refer to other signals not published in Appendix A.

• 3 Signals reconstructed based on these Despatches.

• Total of 88 incl. Appendix B signals (10.27-11.13, at climax of battle) folded into time sequence.

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Dogger Bank: 23-24 Jan 1915

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Result 1• Certainly more

aggressive than Jutland, consistent with Beatty’s command philosophy.

• Maybe the proximity of the adversary makes a difference? Jellicoe could barely see the HSF at Jutland but Beatty was consistently “in their teeth” up to 18:00.– Test BCF only at

Jutland.

~20km

Battle of Dogger BankApprox. 09:0024 Jan 1915

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Jutland: BCF to 18:00

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Jutland all Phases: BCF Only

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Result 2

• More focus on adversary, especially up to 18:00, but still dominated by internal C2.

• Compare scales in ORBAT:– Dogger Bank BCF:

• 5 BCs, 7 LCs, 35 Ds (47)

– Jutland BCF: • 6 BCs, 4 BSs, 14 LCs, 27 Ds, 1 AC (52) +

coordination w.r.t some of 90+ ships of Grand Fleet after 18:00

Conclusions – Future Work• Conclusions:

– Novel Representation and Visualisation of Data in an abstract C2 Model.

– Validation of insights from this against expert historical analysis.

• The command philosophy of a Commander can be detected through the data of the System; but the larger the system the less attention by the centre on the adversary.

• Further validation required: – Comparison with pre- and post-battle Jutland signals;– Comparison with German signals at Jutland;– Heligoland Bight (28 Aug 1914); Scarborough Raid; WWII?

ZZZ003

ZZZ002

Conclusions – Future Work• Conclusions:

– Novel Representation and Visualisation of Data in ab abstract C2 Model.

– Validation of insights from this against expert historical analysis.

• The command philosophy of a Commander can be detected through the data of the System; the larger the system the less attention by the centre on the adversary.

• Further validation required: – Comparison with pre- and post-battle Jutland

signals;– Comparison with German signals at Jutland;– Heligoland Bight (28 Aug 1914); Scarborough

Raid; WWII?

• Operational to Tactical C2: Immediately applicable with Algorithmic Text Analysis Capability to real-time trawl through ‘Mercury’ Traffic.

• Strategic and Operational: How to apply to more sophisticated high-tech artefacts = ppt briefs, emails with attachments/video conferencing?

ZZZ001R------------ZN-----------R 17105Z APR 13FM HQJOC -----TO R---/HQJTF 6-- ---INFO R---/HQJOC J---R---/HQ71WGBTUNCLASSUBJ: DGOPS TASKORD 010/12 DOTHIS. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. YOUNEED TO DO THESE IMMEDIATELY UNTILI SAY STOP.A. STEP ONE.B. STEP TWO.1.SITUATION2.MISSION3.EXECUTION4.ADMIN AND LOG5.COMMAND AND SIGNALBT#6791

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2013 king hall day 2 session 1 - 1

Education