2013 integrated resource plan - · pdf file2013 integrated resource plan ... west 3,161 3,183...

2013
Integrated Resource Plan
September 14, 2012
Environmental Compliance Update
Portfolio Development Cases
Load Forecast
Load and Resource Balance

Agenda
Public Input Meeting Schedule Update
Environmental Compliance Update
Load Forecast
IRP Scenarios
GRD Recommendations
Lunch, 30 min. (11:30 am PT / 12:30 MT)
Load Forecast (continued)
Capacity Load and Resource Balance2

IRP Public Meeting Schedule Update
September 24 Public conference call: Planning Reserve Margin study results
Price curve scenarios
October 23 and 24 Portfolio development results
PaR risk assessment
November 5 Transmission system benefit toolkit
Portfolio development discussion, continued
November 27 PaR model results
Flexible resource capacity needs assessment
December 14 (new date) Preferred portfolio, action plan
January 31, 2013 Draft report review; electric vehicle/smart grid
3

ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE UPDATE

Regulation Impacts Mitigation Timing
Regional Haze/Visibility
Ownership in 26 units; 19 are operated by PacifiCorp. BART-eligible units include:
Naughton 1-3Jim Bridger 1-4Dave Johnston 3 & 4WyodakHunter 1 & 2Huntington 1 & 2Cholla 4Hayden 1 & 2Craig 1 & 2
Scrubbers, baghouses, LNBs, SCRs; costs for yet to be completed projects required by state issued permits and implementation plans included in current business plan.
Source specific Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) to meet technology and emissions rate requirements.
SO2 Milestones and Backstop Trading Program with better than BART results.
As required by stateissued permits and implementation plans; or as expeditiously as possible, but within 5 years of EPA approval of SIP.
Review every 5 10 years for reasonable progress.
Natural conditions by 2064.
Litigation underway
Utility Mercury and Air ToxicsStandards (MATS)
All PacifiCorp coal-fueled plants; all units expected to meet non-mercury metals and acid gas limits with current/planned controls except Carbon 1 & 2.
Mercury reductions required at all units operated by PacifiCorp except Hunter & Huntington.
Scrubbers for acid gases; activated carbon injection, sorbent injection, oxidizers and particulate control for mercury; particulate control for non-mercury metals.
Overlap with Regional Haze. Small, un-scrubbedunits at risk of not achieving compliance.
April 2015 compliance deadline
Depending on unit-specificcircumstances, including system reliability concerns, compliance delay potential up to 1 to 2 years.
Litigation pending
Environmental Regulatory Drivers Air Quality
5

Wyoming Regional Haze SIP/FIP for NOx and PM
Facility Wyoming SIP EPA Proposal
Naughton Unit 1 Existing/in-service LNB/OFA @ 0.26 lb/mmBtu
Existing ESPs with 0.04 lb/mmBtu PM limit
Approved
Approved
Naughton Unit 2 Existing/in-service LNB/OFA @ 0.26 lb/mmBtuExisting ESPs with 0.04 lb/mmBtu PM limit
Approved
Approved
Naughton Unit 3 SCR & baghouse by 12/31/2014 with NOx @ 0.07lbs/mmBtuBaghouse for PM control with 0.025 lb/mmBtu limit
Approved
Approved
Dave Johnston
Unit 3
Existing/ins-service LNB/OFA with emission limit of 0.28 lb/mmBtu
Existing baghouse with PM limit of 0.015 lb/mmBtu
Disapproved Addition of SNCR @
0.19 lb/mmBtu; Baghouse approved
Dave Johnston
Unit 4
LNB/OFA with emission limit of 0.15 lb/mmBtu
Existing baghouse with PM limit of 0.015 lb/mmBtu
Approved
Approved
Jim Bridger Unit 1 SCR or equivalent to achieve 0.07 lb/mmBtu by 12/31/22
Existing ESP with PM 0.03 lb/mmBtu
Disapproved-SCR within 5 years*
Approved
Disapproved-SCR within 5 years*
Approved
Disagreed with long term strategy but
approved. ESP approved.
Disagreed with long term strategy but
approved
Approved
Wyodak Existing/in-service LNB/OFA with emission limit of 0.23 lb/mmBtu
Existing baghouse with PM 0.015 lb/mmBtu
Disapproved Addition of SNCR
within 5 yrs
Approved
Dave Johnston
Units 1 and 2
No additional controls during initial planning period Disapproved Addition of LNB/OFA at
0.20 lb/mmBtu no later than 7/31/186

Status of Regional Haze Actions
State Public Comment
Period
Final EPA Action
Wyoming NOx and PM
Wyoming SO2
Closed 8/31/12
Closed 7/23/12
Expected by 10/15/12
NM, UT & WY Varying dates
Utah SO2, NOx and PM Closed 7/16/12 Preliminary action expected
10/31/12; final action dependent
on submittal of 5-factor analysis
and revision to SIP
Arizona - SO2, NOx and PM Closes 9/18/12 Expected 11/15/12
Colorado Closed 3/8/12 Expected 9/10/12
All states Potential
impacts from Cross-State
Air Pollution Rule decision
Appeal by 10/5/12
7

Environmental Regulatory Drivers Water & Waste
Proposed
Regulation
Impacts Mitigation Timing
Proposed - Clean
Water Act 316(b)
cooling water intake
structures
PacifiCorp operated units:
Closed-cycle cooling:
Jim Bridger 1-4
Naughton 1-3
Gadsby 1-3
Hunter 1-3 (x2)
Carbon 1 & 2
Huntington 1 & 2
Dave Johnston 4
Once-through cooling:
Dave Johnston 1-3
Demonstrate best technology
available for minimizing adverse
environmental impact.
Reduce impingement through
changes in screens or decrease
velocity; assess entrainment
mortality. Conduct studies to
determine impacts in 2014.
Unknown Dependent upon
issuance of final rule,
proposal would require
compliance upon permit
renewal but no later than 8
years after final rule.
Previous deadline of 7/24/12
extended to 6/27/13
Proposed - Coal
combustion
byproduct regulation
PacifiCorp operated units;
16 surface impoundments
6 landfills
EPA has not yet determined the
applicable regulatory treatment
(Subtitle C or D). Under either
regulatory treatment, existing unlined
surface impoundments would need to
be closed. All new landfills are being
constructed to meet liner
requirements.
Unknown
Rule not expected to be final
until late in 2012; closure of
unlined impoundments
required within 5 years of final
rule.
Deadline lawsuit pending in
D.C. Circuit
8

Other Environmental and Related Issues
Potential
Regulation
Impacts Mitigation Timing
Effluent limit guidelines
for steam generating
point sources
Unknown Unknown Proposed rule deferred
to 11/20/12; final rule
4/28/14
GHG NSPS for existing
sources
Unknown Unknown Unknown
Federal climate change
regulation
Unknown Unknown Unknown
Carbon tax Unknown Unknown Unknown
Production Tax Credit
for wind/renewables
Current
expiration date of
12/31/12
One-year
extension?
Senate Finance
Committee tax
extenders ( 307)
Unknown
Federal RPS Unknown Unknown Unknown
9

PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT CASES

Please refer to the handouts
Stakeholder recommendation log
11

LOAD FORECAST

Agenda
Peak Load Forecast
Electric industry load growth expectations
Industrial class updates
Industrial regression vs. probability-based forecast methodology
High and low load growth scenario
2011 IRP GDS Recommendation status
13

Peak Load Forecast Summary
The Peak Load Forecast decreased by 523 MW in 2016 or 4.8 percent relative to the IRP Update
Industrial forecast changes represent approximately 80% of the load forecast change (energy) in 2016 New planned self-generation facility by Kennecott (270
MW)
Expected continued self-generation by the Companys larger industrial customers
Lower expectations of new and existing load growth in the industrial class
The commercial class forecast is lower due to reduced expectations of data center loads and more recent load information
Residential load is relatively flat across all states
14

PacifiCorp System Peak Load Forecast
Change
The decrease in 2016 in both the IRP
Update and current load forecast is due to
the expiration of the BPA Idaho Exchange
contract
15

PacifiCorp East Peak Load Forecast Change
16
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2011 IRP Update - East 6,981 6,993 7,151 7,403 7,611 7,468 7,727 7,882 8,034 8,195 8,360 8,500 8,644 8,806 8,979 9,154 9,324 9,482 9,658 9,832
July 2012 Forecast - East 6,981 6,857 6,920 7,061 7,188 6,994 7,105 7,217 7,337 7,455 7,584 7,697 7,802 7,907 8,017

2013 integrated resource plan - · pdf file2013 integrated resource plan ... west 3,161 3,183...

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