2013 12-16 mena security roundup

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December 16, 2013

Yemen on brink? Tribal groups in the Hadhramout province are on the brink of conflict with Yemen’s army following a drone attack that killed 17 people in a wedding convoy over the past weekend. !

The government reported that Al Qaeda members were killed in the strike but it is often the case that attacks and deaths of tribe members are reported in this way to avoid further scrutiny.!

Yemen security officials falsely accused many people of being members of Al Qaeda. Early this year, the official website of the ministry of defence was forced to remove a news story accusing a slain tribal leader of being a member of Al Qaeda. The website issued an apology to his tribe.!

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Egypt

The chairman of a 50-member panel that drafted a new constitution for Egypt has called on supporters of the country’s ousted Islamist president to participate in next month’s referendum on the charter, but he also warned that Egyptians have grown angry with their street protests and would move to end them.

Lebanon

The killing of an Israeli soldier on the Lebanon-Israel border overnight has raised fears of reprisals in the tense border zone. Any military response is likely to be limited.

Pakistan

Shia cleric Allama Nasir Abbas of Multan was shot dead by unidentified armed men on Sunday night sparking fears of a renewed spate of sectarian attacks in the cities across Pakistan.

MENA NEWS Regional Roundup

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December 16, 2013

Government symbolic vote to stop drone attacks!Yemen's parliament on Sunday called for a stop to drone attacks in a symbolic vote that reflected growing public anxiety about use of the unmanned aircraft to interdict militants. Motions passed by the Yemeni parliament are not binding and can be struck down by the president, and are seen as no more than recommendations to the government.!

There is also little scope for the Yemeni government of security forces to enforce such a ban as they lack the capability and will to do so.!

Clashes with military likely to increase significantly!Hadhramout has a history of clashes between the local tribes and the security forces, largely focused on tribal concerns and the vast energy resources that are found in the province.!

The effect of any escalation there will be significant not only for the general security environment across the country as many turn to support armed groups, but also for the shattered economy and ability to export resources from the province. Any potential destabilisation of Hadhramout, and the alienation of the tribes there will cost Yemen dearly.


Recent drone / airstrikes in Yemen

The below list has been complied from local media, aid/ human rights groups.

• September 2, 2012, Al-Baydah province, 12 civilians were killed when a drone “missed” its target.

• July 17, 2013: Al Qaeda reported that Said al-Shehri was killed in a drone strike. That was after he survived multiple drone attacks including one on Jan 22 that killed 3 -5 people.

• May 15, 2012, 14 civilians, including a pregnant woman, were killed in a strike on a residential area in Jaar province.

• March 9, 2012, A drone strike in al-Baydah province killed 23-34 individuals.

• July 14, 2011: A drone strike hit a police station in Abyan province. The death toll is unclear.

• March 14, 2010: US reports a night time strike killed two militants in an air raid on a terror training site in Abyan. Local residents, however, told Reuters up to 20 civilians were killed.


December 16, 2013

Egypt The chairman of a 50-member panel that drafted a new constitution for Egypt has called on supporters of the country’s ousted Islamist president to participate in next month’s referendum on the charter, but he also warned that Egyptians have grown angry with their street protests and would move to end them.!

The Muslim Brotherhood has yet to announce whether it will call on its supporters to boycott the January 14-15 vote or rally for a ‘no’ vote. However, it has repeatedly stated that removing Mursi was illegitimate, together with all steps taken since.!

For their part, the military-backed government is not taking any chances. Amr Mousa re-affirmed that there would be no going back on the road map, which envisages parliamentary and presidential polls by the summer of 2014.!

Brotherhood losing influence as leaders and activists detained!The Muslim Brotherhood has also lost influence in the community with so many of their leaders and lead activists either detained or in hiding following a significant crackdown on them by the security forces.!

They suffered a heavy loss at the Egypt’s Medical Association, a traditional stronghold of the group, seen as a sign of a drop in the one-time governing group’s popularity. Candidates from Doctors for Egypt, a pro-Brotherhood group, won a single seat out of 12 seats, which were up for grabs at the Medical Association’s mid-term vote held on Friday, an election commission announced Sunday night.!

Some cite a general loss in populate however, the reality is more likely to be related to the crackdown against the Brotherhood and anyone that is seen as supporting them in any way!

The extent to which the crackdown is being enforced has been vividly displayed when the father of a child was drained because his son has pro-Mursi slogans on a ruler in school. A number of the child’s teachers were also detained.!

Outlook!There are likely to be continued protests by Muslim Brotherhood supporters and clashes with the security forces but these will be on a much lower scale than has been seen previously. Early January will be a crucial time for Egypt as the constitutional polls approach. This period will also be extremely tense with additional efforts to stamp out any Brotherhood influence likely to implemented by the security forces.



December 16, 2013

Lebanon An Israeli soldier has been killed close to the Lebanon-Israel border.!

According to media reports, a Lebanese army sniper killed an Israeli soldier near the border fence near Rosh Hanikra on Sunday night.!

An initial assessment by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), based on data from lookout positions on the border, found shots were fired by a soldier from the Lebanese Armed Forces who apparently was acting alone. The IDF has launched an investigation into the cross-border shooting.!

Israel protests to UN!Earlier, the Israeli army said it had protested the shooting with UN peacekeeping forces and said it would not "tolerate aggression against the state of Israel”. Israel lodged the complaint with the UN force in southern Lebanon and has heightened its state of preparedness along the border in response to the killing of an IDF soldier by a Lebanese military sniper, spokesman Peter Lerner said.!

Tensions high!Lebanon is already extremely tense as the country struggles to cope with the influx of Syrian refugees. With the added complications of the backlash of the fighting in Syria being felt as armed clashes between rival groups in Lebanon, tensions along the border will do little to settle these concerns.!

The prospect of Israeli military retaliation, whether against the Lebanese army or other targets in the south, also brings into play the significant forces of Hizbullah as they have dominated the south of the country for many years.!

At this time it appears unlikely that there will be a significant escalation across the border. There have often been tit-for-tat attacks including shootings and artillery strikes that haven’t escalated into a prolonged conflict.!

Outlook!However, with the numerous complicating factors in Lebanon currently, caution is advised at all times. This week will be crucial in setting the tone for any response on both sides of the border. With neither side eager for armed conflict at the moment, any military response from Israel is likely to be limited in terms of targets and time.



December 16, 2013

Pakistan Shia cleric Allama Nasir Abbas of Multan was shot dead by unidentified armed men on Sunday night sparking fears of a renewed spate of sectarian attacks in the cities across Pakistan.!

Abbas, from the Tehreek-i-Nifaz-i-Fiqh Jafaria (TNFJ), was going home after attending a Majlis at Qaumi Markaz, Shah Jamal at around 11 pm when armed motorcycles intercepted his vehicle near the FC College Underpass and opened fire. Abbas was seriously injured in the attack and pronounced dead on arrival at the Shaikh Zayed Hospital. Abbas’s driver escaped unhurt. Protesters from TNFJ quickly gathered at the hospital to vent their anger and moved on to the Governor’s House.!

Condemning the killing of Shia cleric, Majlis-i-Wahdatul Muslimeen has announced three days of mourning. It is likely that further protests will accompany the mourning period.!

Concerns of renewed sectarian attacks grow!Across the country there are growing concerns that there will be a renewal of the sectarian attacks that have blighted the country for decades. Of particular concern, and most affected by this form of violence is the port city of Karachi where violence has historically spread quickly and run out of control with many hundreds being killed in attacks annually.!

With the diverse mix of many ethno-political and sectarian groups in Karachi, the city has historically witnessed violence as a

result of incidents elsewhere in the country due to the diverse mix of people and groups that exist.!

Abbas’s killing may fuel tensions in the city. The reaction from these armed groups is heavily dependant on their leader’s and the government response to this incident in the days ahead.


2013 12-16 mena security roundup

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