2013 05 24 ags mon industriall lux 11-copy
DESCRIPTION
industryTRANSCRIPT
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AgSAgS--Monitoring Shipbuilding:Monitoring Shipbuilding:AgSAgS--Monitoring Shipbuilding:Monitoring Shipbuilding:
WWorld orld SShipbuilding Statistics:hipbuilding Statistics:Cruise Ships Cruise Ships -- MegayachtsMegayachts -- Offshore Installation VesselsOffshore Installation Vessels
WWorld orld SShipbuilding Statistics:hipbuilding Statistics:Cruise Ships Cruise Ships -- MegayachtsMegayachts -- Offshore Installation VesselsOffshore Installation Vessels
Sector Committee ShipbuildingMay 2013 Luxembourg
Thorsten Ludwig
ContentContentContentContent
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ShipbuildingShipbuilding aactivityctivity2000 2000 3. Q. 20123. Q. 2012
ShipbuildingShipbuilding aactivityctivity2000 2000 3. Q. 20123. Q. 2012
200,000
250,000T
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q.2012Orderbook 45,88 48,27 48,94 70,80 92,80 107,2 138,0 183,7 194,1 156,2 128,0 111,4 96,53NewOrders 29,43 23,34 20,47 41,70 45,12 39,58 57,31 85,27 42,95 16,55 38,58 30,82 18,66Deliveries 20,34 20,18 21,39 22,82 25,46 29,35 34,12 34,64 41,87 44,40 51,57 51,12 39,86
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
1.000C
GT
Orderbook
NewOrdersDeliveries
Global
3035
14 00016,00018,000 Orderbook
CESA/SeaEurope
Source: SeaEurope MMR Dec. 2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q.2012Orderbook 13,267 12,724 9,652 9,610 12,406 15,738 16,885 16,752 13,692 9,470 6,394 5,744 5,205NewOrders 7,591 4,534 2,262 3,951 6,798 7,226 5,379 5,425 2,114 561 2,459 1,822 1,209Deliveries 4,794 4,870 4,817 4,479 4,194 3,851 4,642 4,870 4,820 3,895 3,947 2,446 1,478CESAshareofglobalorderbook(%) 28.92 26.36 19.72 13.57 13.37 14.68 12.24 9.12 7.05 6.06 4.99 5.15 5.39
0510152025
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000
%
1.000C
GT NewOrders
Deliveries
CESAshareofglobalorderbook(%)
Cruise Cruise ShipsShipsCruise Cruise ShipsShips
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Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in 2010in 2010Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in 2010in 2010
STX Turku:1 vessel
Meyerwerft:7 vessels
STX St. Nazaire:1 vessel
7 vessels
Fincantieri:13 vesselsAsia
0%
Global cruise ship orderbook (1.3.2010): 22 vessels in total 2.434.155 GT
Europe100%
Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in in 20132013Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in in 20132013
STX Turku:2 vessels
Meyerwerft:7 vessels
STX St. Nazaire:3 vessels
7 vessels
Fincantieri:9 vessels Xiamen
ShipbuildingIndustry :1 vessel
Mitsubishi (MHI):2 vessels
Samsung Heavy Industries:
1 vessel
Asia16%
Global cruise ship orderbook (10.1.2013): 24 vessels in total 2.951.600 GT
Europe84%
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Key data:Cruise ship building
Orderbook of cruise ships worldwide by shipyard (basis: gt)
Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildingsby shipyard and year of delivery (Number of ships)
MitsubishiSamsungHeavy
XiamenInternational
8XiamenShipbuilding
Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildings by shipyard and year of delivery (GT)
MeyerWerft1,001,000
34%
Fincantieri894,10030%STXFinland
194,0007%
STXFrance404,50014%
Mitsubishi(MHI)250,000
8%
HeavyIndustries108,000
4%
InternationalCruiseCo.Ltd
100,0003%
2 2 21
2 23
2
1
12
1
1
1
1
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
p gIndustryCo.LtdSamsungHeavyIndustries
Mitsubishi(MHI)
STXFrance
STXFinland
Fincantieri
MeyerWerftGmbH
Date: 10/01/2013 - Sources: AgS-Monitoring, cruisindustrynews.com, AMEM, shipcruise.com
Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildings by shipyard and year of delivery (GT)
215,000 302,000 321,000 163,000
151,600
273,500 287,000
182,000
97,000 97,000
179,500
225,000
125,000
125,000
108,000
100,0000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
XiamenShipbuildingIndustryCo.LtdSamsungHeavyIndustriesMitsubishi(MHI)STXFranceSTXFinlandFincantieri
MeyerWerftGmbH
Major Major playerplayer in cruise in cruise industryindustryMajor Major playerplayer in cruise in cruise industryindustry
World wide Passenger Ship capacityCompany market share(36.2 bn US$
in 2013)
Passenger capacity in
2013
Ship capacityin 2013
(No. of ships)
48,4% 208.710 10323,3% 97.610 40
7,6% 30.170 127,0% 31.250 137,0% 31.250 132,5% 5.510 4
Others (32 comp.) 11,2% 62.330 111TOTAL 100% 438.580 283
Source: cruisemarketwatch.com; AgS-Monitoring
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OrderbookOrderbook forfor cruise cruise shipsships clientclientOrderbookOrderbook forfor cruise cruise shipsships clientclient
Cli Tonnage/Year of Delivery (1.000GT) Total Share ofClient o age/ ea o e e y ( 000 G ) TotalTonnageShareofTotal2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CCL 212 273,5 365 260 1.110,5 37,6%NCL 144 144 163 163 614 20,8%RCL 158 158 225 541 18,3%TUI/RCL 97 97 194 6,6%MSC 140 140 4,7%Utopia 108 108 3,7%XiamenInternationalCruise 100 100 3,4%,VikingOcean 47 47 94 3,2%HapagLloyd 39,5 39,5 1,3%Ponant 10,6 10,6 0,4%Total 546,1 780,5 830 532 163 100 2.951,6 100.00%
Source: cruisemarketwatch.com; AgS-Monitoring
SizeSize--developmentdevelopment in cruise in cruise shipship buildingbuildingSizeSize--developmentdevelopment in cruise in cruise shipship buildingbuilding
Source: STX Turku 2012
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World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(base (base case scenario)case scenario)
World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(base (base case scenario)case scenario)
In 2015 onwards additional tonnage is needed in order for the fleet growth to reach 5 percent.
Based on above assumption some 8 vessels per year will be needed in addition to the current order book in 20152017. There will be overcapacityThere will be overcapacity in building market for cruise ships which results in downward pressure on building prices.
Source: RS Platou, 3/2012
World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(high (high case scenario)case scenario)
World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(high (high case scenario)case scenario)
In 2015 onwards additional tonnage is needed in order for the fleet growth to reach 7 percent.
Based on above assumption some 12 vessels per year will be needed in addition to the current order book in 2015 2017 As deliveries20152017. As deliveries will exceed delivery capacity, this could result in an increase in newbuilding prices.
Source: RS Platou, 3/2012
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2013 2013 HHighlightsighlights2013 2013 HHighlightsighlights
Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million a 3 3% increase over 2012million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue.Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074.Looking out further, 19 more new cruise ships will add 64.300 passenger capacity until 2018.By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.
Date: 10/01/2013 - Sources: AgS-Monitoring, cruisindustrynews.com, AMEM, shipcruise.com
Passenger forecast:Passenger forecast:cruise ship industrycruise ship industryPassenger forecast:Passenger forecast:cruise ship industrycruise ship industry
Source: cruisemarketwatch.com (10.1.2013)
Worldwide cruise industry has an annual passenger compound annual growth rate of 7% from 1990 2017.
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MegayachtsMegayachtsMegayachtsMegayachts
MegayachtMegayacht--BuildingBuilding: Global & Europe: Global & EuropeMegayachtMegayacht--BuildingBuilding: Global & Europe: Global & Europe
696yachts
28.117mtotal length
40,6maverage length
198yards
Yachts>=24m
10.996mtotal length
168megayachts
Megayachts>= 45m
82yards
65,5maverage length
41% 24% 39%
Norway1 yardNetherlands
9 yards
UK1 yard
Germany4 yards
Finland1 yard78%
Italy24 yards
France3 yards
Greece4 yards
1 yard
Turkey14 yards
Spain1 yard
Poland1 yard
Croatia1 yard
64 European Yards building megayachts
Source: Boat International; calculations by AgSDate: January 2013
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Global Global MMegayachtegayacht OrderbookOrderbookGlobal Global MMegayachtegayacht OrderbookOrderbook
Orderbook of megayachts (>45 meter)and share b b ilding co ntr (basis meter)
Top Ten of megayacht-building countries
China150.001%
France186.502%
Germany1,124.0311% Greece
355.854%
Netherlands1.778,9518%
Turkey1,420.4714%
UnitedStates893.549%
TopTen Length (m)Italy 3.717,35TheNetherlands 1.778,95Turkey 1.420,47Germany 1.124,03UnitedStates 893,54Greece 355,85Japan 198,80France 186,50
l d
and share by building country (basis: meter)
Italy3,717.3537%
Japan198.802%
NewZealand181.002%
NewZealand 181,00China 150,00
Totallength(TopTen) 10.006,49
Source: Boat InternationalDate: January 2013
OrderbookOrderbook andand deliveriesdeliveries forfor mmegayachtsegayachts(Date: Sept. 2012)(Date: Sept. 2012)
OrderbookOrderbook andand deliveriesdeliveries forfor mmegayachtsegayachts(Date: Sept. 2012)(Date: Sept. 2012)
Source: Boat International
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Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVesselsOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels
Future Future ChallengesChallenges forforOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels
Future Future ChallengesChallenges forforOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels
2000 2005 2010 2015Size-Development of Offshore-Turbines
Power Output 2 MW 3,5 MW 5 MW 7,5 MWRotor Diameter 80m 90m 120m 135m+Nacelle Mass 70 to 100 to 130-350 to 150-350 toHub Height 70m 80m 90m 100m
Demand Supply(existing&ordered)Vessel supply and demand
810
2124
26
13
2326
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Num
bero
fvessels
Sources: Douglas-Westwood 2012Roland Berger 2013
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Global Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore Market
0 1.1 1.6
2013 2016 2020
Investment (EUR bn p.a.)
79.4
14.4
0
5
10
15
20 Investment (EUR bn p.a.)
1.6 3.24.8
2013 2016 2020
Investment (EUR bn p.a.)
02013 2016 2020
Offshore projects
Plans for offshore projects
Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels::ConstructionConstruction ActivityActivity ShiftingShifting EastEast
Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels::ConstructionConstruction ActivityActivity ShiftingShifting EastEast
Germany
Pre-2011 Post-2011
Lithuania
Pre-2011 Post-2011
Poland
Pre-2011 Post-2011
China
Pre-2011 Post-2011
South Korea
Pre-2011
Post-2011
UAE
Pre-2011
Belgium
Pre-2011 Post-2011
The Netherlands
Pre-2011 Post-2011
USA
Pre-2011 Post-2011
Singapore
Pre-2011 Post-2011
Post-2011
Source: Douglas-Westwood 2012
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ThankThank YouYou!!ThankThank YouYou!!
Agentur fr Struktur- und P l t i kl G bH (A S)Personalentwicklung GmbH (AgS)
Anne-Conway-Str. 5D-28359 [email protected]
Tel.: +49-421-3349 610
DebtDebt CCrisisrisis: South : South KoreanKorean ShipyardsShipyardsDebtDebt CCrisisrisis: South : South KoreanKorean ShipyardsShipyards
In 2012 combined debts of South Koreas sevenlargest shipyards spiked 44%.
21.0
20
25 Development of combined debts of the seven largestSouth Korean shipyards (2009-2012)
g py p %
HHI, Samsung HI an five other shipyards heldcombined 18.8 bn US$ (21 trillion WON) in debtat the end of 2012:
HHI: 6.54 trillion WON Samsung HI: 2.96 trillion WON DSME: 4.08 trillion WON STX: 12 trillion WON (?)
12.1
14.7 14.6
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012
trillionW
ON
Source: Yonhap News, 4.4.2013