Climate Change from the Perspective of an Astrophysicist

HX Team* Academia Sinica, ITRI, NTHU

18 May 2012 NCTU Interdisciplinary Science Degree Program

*F. H. Shu, M. J. Cai, F. T. Luo, P. T. P. Ho, R. E. Taam, R. Krasnopolsky, Y. D. Huang, T. S. Wei, K. H. Chien, S. K. Wu, S. Chien, N. H. Tai, S. J. Zheng

!T

Reason !T = 0.9 oC, not 3.6 oC

environmental.blog.org

Outline of Presentation •  Background Motivation (systems thinking):

– Essence of climate change & global warming – Essence of energy challenge

•  Molten Salt to Make Biofuels: – High-throughput Biowaste to Biochar & Biosyn – Use infrastructure & distribution system of FF

•  Demonstration Project: – Biowaste management & sustainable development – Rollback climate change & reclaim damaged lands

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Energy, Economics, Environment •  John Maynard Keynes:

“For millennia, until the industrial revolution, the only way humans made economic progress was to enslave other peoples.”

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•  Environmental cost of ind rev (coal burning + steam engine): rapid increase of GHG in atm

Slavery abolished

Te = 255 K, Tg = 288 K, T0 = 214 K

Infrared Absorption (Blanket) of Atmosphere for Earth-heat

CO2

H2O

O3

In eq., 2" integral = 240 W m-2; Te = 255 K, Tg = 288 K, T0 = 214 K

H2O

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N2, O2 homonuclear, transparent to visible & infrared light

H2O CH4

CO2

Nat gas burning better than coal. If leak during extraction, 72x worse 20 yr; 25x worse100 yr.

CH4

Y. L. Yung

H2O

Background continuum is IR of Earth surface

CO2 Contribution to GH Effect

5/19/12 Frank H. Shu

At 390 ppm, CO2 contribution to GH since ind rev !T = 1.0K; !T = #0.1K (large uncertainty) "(Te+!T)4 $Te

4 (1+4!T/Te) = 240 W m-2 (1#0.0016) #0.38 W m-2 (into Earth).

300 K

280 K

260 K

240 K 220 K

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Chris Colose

Line core is saturated.

With more CO2, line strength grows in the wings.

Net heat input = 0.58 W m-2 (Hansen et al. 2011; 3000 Argo ocean floats). If goes to heating air, expected rise 0.58 W m-2/[(1.03x104 kg m-2) (1000 J kg-1 oC-1)] = 1.8 oC/yr . ! Not seen!

Living on Borrowed Time •  Net solar input = 0.58 W m-2 not heating air •  Warm ocean 0.0012 oC/yr? Obs = 0.0015 oC/yr •  If not deep ocean, melt ice: 3.34 x 105 J/kg •  Earth surface = 5.1 x 1014 m2; x % x 0.58 W m-2

= 1.5x1014 W for Northern hemisphere –  3x1018 kg ice (mostly GL); 1x1024 J to melt –  1x1024 J/1.5x1014 W = 6.7x109 s = 210 yr –  3x1018 kg/(103 kg m-3)(5.1x1014 m2) = 6 m

•  Melt ice, decrease albedo, release CH4 of permafrost, increase T, oceans lose CO2, air holds more H2O, more violent storms, less fresh water from melting glaciers & snowpack. Already here

•  Southern hemisphere (mostly Antarctica) –  9x North ice, 1,900 yr to melt. Seas rise 54+6 m before 4000. –  210 yr, another 6 m. Seas rise 2-7 m before end of century.

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7 m

Google maps

Response? Ever More Damage by Invasive Extraction of Earth Resources

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Rare Earths (neodymium for wind turbines, lanthanum for EV batteries), Baotou Lake, Inner Mongolia

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Mountaintop removal for coal, West Virginia, USA

US EPA Euronews

Natural gas leak, North Sea, Europe

Non-Intersection of Energy, Economics, Environment = Society Polarized by Different Values

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Economics

Energy Environment

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Fossil fuels 77%

Fission 6%

Wind 1%

Solar 0.1%

Hydroelectric 6%

Wood 6% Biofuels 4%

Hard to Beat Coal or Natural Gas for Turbine Electricity Generation

•  Steam turbine: –  Nuclear, coal, oil –  Hot steam corrosive

•  Gas turbine: –  Natural gas –  Less corrosive –  Cheap & fast to build –  Combined cycle gives

greater efficiency •  To turn a turbine, falling

water cheap; wind expensive, unreliable; solar thermal more expensive. How about PV?

Oncor.com

Turbine much bigger than boiler 0.5 mg U or Th = 1 kg coal = 106 m3 wind at 25 km/hr

Averaged over latitude, day/night, & seasons, solar energy on land:

Solar Photovoltaics: Direct Conversion of Sunlight to Electricity

E eff solar panel (Suntech) = 15% (QE = 80-90%): 0.15x 37,000 TW=5,500 TWe. For 15 TWe (total world power 2050), 0.27% of land (9% urban area).

Sports Stadium in Kaoshiung, Taiwan 10 5/19/12 Frank H. Shu

(about 240 W/m2)

!

0.3(0.7) LSun

4"rEarth2

#

$ %

&

' ( "REarth

2 = 37,000 TW

Land area not problem - cost: In US, 1 m2 PV (150 We peak) $900 to buy & install, lasts 20 yr, yields 36 We avg. Good for peak load, displaces little CO2. 36 We, 40 yr Equip Fuel Total Solar PV $1,800 $ 0 $1,800 Coal $ 126 $404 $ 530 Nat Gas $ 36 $272 $ 308 Nuclear $ 216 $ 82 $ 298

Pushing the Envelope to Create Overlap for Least Harmful/Most Useful Energy Sources

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Economics

Energy Environment

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Clean sustainable nuclear (process heat)

High throughput biofuels (replace FF)

Cheap solar photovoltaics (for peak load)

And conservation!

Hot Liquids to Make Biofuels: Mimic How Earth Made Coal, Oil, Natural Gas

(but in ten minutes, not 100 million years)

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Molten Salt (NaOAc/KOAc) Conversion of Biowaste to Bioresource

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chopsticks �

bamboo stick

bamboo pieces �

bamboo stick with a node

large pieces of leucaena � chopped leucaena �

toothpicks � grapefruit rind�

Taipower Assay of Biochar

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Monetary worth as biocoal > $100/tonne

potash scrubber

High-Throughput Supertorrefier Biocoal-heated unit for biowaste (4 tonne/hr)

stems leaves

Biochar (2.4 tonne/hr)

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29 m x 3 m x 4 m

F. H. Shu, M. J. Cai, F. T. Luo

Patent Pending

Operational year-end 2014

Supertorrefy biomass in 300 oC molten salt for 10 min

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5/19/12 F. H. Shu, M. J. Cai, & F. T. Luo

•  Biochar: as fuel C-neutral, as soil amendment C-negative (biomass rots; biochar does not) •  Condense VOCs:

•  furfural at 125 oC: biodiesel additive •  steam at 68 oC to wash salty biochar; distill to recover salt •  acetic acid: convert K2CO3, CaCO3, MgCO3 to actetates •  methanol at 20 oC: transesterify (used) veg oil to biodiesel

•  Syngas (H2O, CO2, CO): CO+% O2 (air) ! CO2’ In MCFC for electricity production (CO+H2O ! CO2 + H2; H2+% O2 !% O2 )

VOC bubbler/condenser

Electrolyte: Li+, Na+ K+ stay in solution; CO3

-2 charge carrier & reactant. Discharge hot CO2 & H2O.

Thermostat liquid by seawater cooled HX

www.eere.energy.gov 17

X 1/2

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC): Reliable Energy Source, Easy Distribution

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Piped syngas from high-throughput production of biofuels.

Direct conversion of chemical energy in CO in syngas and O2 (in air) into electricity at 47% eff.

“Inefficiency” keeps carbonate electrolyte molten at > 600 oC & provides steam for space heating or turbine electricity. Almost no waste.

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Fuel Cell Energy LLC., Danbury, CT

Challenge: cheap catalyst that resists corrosion by hot L2Na2K2-CO3 salt. NCTU/NTHU?

Reclamation of Hope, CO (Abandoned) Silver Mine (As, Cd, Hg, Zn) with Biochar

•  Soil amendment: 30% by volume biochar (from beetle-infested pine trees @ 0.23 tonne biochar per day)

•  With supertorrefier, 50 tonne biochar per day. •  Each yr, reclaim 18,000,000 kg /[(300 kg m-3)(0.3)(0.4

m)] = 500,000 m2 = 50 ha (1 NCTU every 18 months). Frank H. Shu 5/19/12 19

July 2010 August 2011 Troy Hooper Troy Hooper

Demonstration Project: Sustainable Development with no Gov’t Subsidies &

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Biochar cheaper than coal, Biodiesel cheaper than diesel, Syngas cheaper than nat gas

Supertorrefy 36,000 tonne/yr Bamboo/Leucaena Item Cost KNTD 9 staff 8,100 Biomass 54,000 Elec 378

Biocoala 17,626

Salt loss 540 Total 80,644

Electricity Burnt Biocoal Soil Amendment Tonnes CO2 emitted per yr

90,000 kWh = 0 tonneb

151 TJ = 0 tonneb

16,925 x (#2.4) = # 40,620 tonne

a80% eff. bInput energy renewable. cTwice 625 NTD/tonne CO2.

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Employ 69 people; 6,000 tonne biodiesel & 1.34 net GWh (C neutral) displace 18,500 tonne CO2 of fossil fuels.

Producer Production rate (GtC/yr) Open ocean (algae/kelp) 42 Tropical rainforests 37 Savanna & grasslands Tropical monsoon forests

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Boreal forests 9.6 Cultivated farmland 9.1 Temperate deciduous forests 8.4 Temperate evergreen forests 6.6 Woodland and shrub-land 4.0

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Renewable Biomass 3 GtC/yr to feed 170,000 supertorrefiers to remove 6.9 Gt/yr CO2, # 23% 2011 em, # 0.46 ppm/yr. 450 ppm ! 350 ppm in 217 yr.

Summary •  Climate change is here & may become catastrophic in this

century. Argument over how to respond is needlessly vitriolic & divisive when we should be having a rational dialog.

•  Basic reasons (Energy+Economics+Environment) underlie the indecision that characterizes past government policy.

•  To have better choices in the future, we suggest focusing on –  Cheaper solar PV for peak load –  High-throughput transportation biofuels & C sequestration –  Clean sustainable nuclear power for process heat

•  High-throughput biochar can rollback atmospheric GHG while reclaiming lands damaged by unsustainable practices.

•  Recognize that all “solutions” eventually become problems. Embrace change & make the best of the time that we are given.

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