2012 global rice supply and demand
DESCRIPTION
Slides prepared by Sam Mohanty, economist and head of the Social Sciences Division, IRRI. (Visit www.irri.org)TRANSCRIPT
Thailand 5% Broken Rice Price (Mar-98 to Dec-11)
Source: Pink Sheet, World Bank, Jan 2012
US$/t (fob)
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
2001=$170
2007=$325
2011=$540
Global Rice Stocks and Stock-to-Use Ratio
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
China India Indonesia ROW Stock to use ratio
000 MT
Data Source: USDA. 2012
Percent
U.S. Rough Rice Production
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001/20
02
2002/20
03
2003/20
04
2004/20
05
2005/20
06
2006/20
07
2007/20
08
2008/20
09
2009/20
10
2010/20
11
2011/20
12
000 MT
Data Source: USDA, 2012
Global Milled Rice Production
300,000320,000340,000360,000380,000400,000420,000440,000460,000480,000
2000/20
01
2001/20
02
2002/20
03
2003/20
04
2004/20
05
2005/20
06
2006/20
07
2007/20
08
2008/20
09
2009/20
10
2010/20
11
2011/20
12
000 MT
Source: USDA, 2012
Slowdown in Global Rice Consumption?
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1960
/196
1
1962
/196
3
1964
/196
5
1966
/196
7
1968
/196
9
1970
/197
1
1972
/197
3
1974
/197
5
1976
/197
7
1978
/197
9
1980
/198
1
1982
/198
3
1984
/198
5
1986
/198
7
1988
/198
9
1990
/199
1
1992
/199
3
1994
/199
5
1996
/199
7
1998
/199
9
2000
/200
1
2002
/200
3
2004
/200
5
2006
/200
7
2008
/200
9
2010
/201
1
MMT
Data Source: USDA, 2012
Slowdown in Global Rice Consumption?
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1960
/196
1
1962
/196
3
1964
/196
5
1966
/196
7
1968
/196
9
1970
/197
1
1972
/197
3
1974
/197
5
1976
/197
7
1978
/197
9
1980
/198
1
1982
/198
3
1984
/198
5
1986
/198
7
1988
/198
9
1990
/199
1
1992
/199
3
1994
/199
5
1996
/199
7
1998
/199
9
2000
/200
1
2002
/200
3
2004
/200
5
2006
/200
7
2008
/200
9
2010
/201
1
MMT
Data Source: USDA, 2012
Global Trade: Rice vs Other Crops(ave. 2007-2011)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Rice Corn Wheat Soybeans
Percent
Data Source: USDA, 2012
World Rice Production vs Trade
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
60/61
63/64
66/67
69/70
72/73
75/76
78/79
81/82
84/85
87/88
90/91
93/94
96/97
99/00
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
Production
Trade
000 Metric Tonnes
Data source; PSD, USDA, 2012 milled rice basis
World Rice Trade
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
60/61
63/64
66/67
69/70
72/73
75/76
78/79
81/82
84/85
87/88
90/91
93/94
96/97
99/00
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
000 Metric Tonnes
Data source; PSD, USDA, 2012
Global Rice Needs
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Asia Africa Americas Rest of World
Million tons milled rice
Additional rice needed:116 million tons by 2035
2010 global rice production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Production Population
Data Source: USDA, 2012 and FAO, UN Population 2010 Revision
Global rice production vs population
Million Tons (Paddy) Billion People
Sub-Saharan Africa Rice Trends
Million Tons Million Tons
0
5
10
15
20
25
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
Consumption Production
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12
Imports
Data Source: USDA, 2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Trends in rice imports (000 MT)Philippines, 1960-2011
Source of basic data: USDA (TY Imports ‘000 MT) 1960-2011
… Sharp increase in the last decade
Data Source: USDA, 2012
ThailandVietnam
India
ChinaPakistan
Asia is a net exporterAsia is a net exporter
Global Paddy Area and Production
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Production Area
000 MT
Data Source: USDA, 2012
000 HA
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Slowdown in Global Paddy Yield Growth (1960-2011)
Tonne per Hectare
Data Source: USDA, 2012