2012-02- us attractiveness indices issue - e&y
TRANSCRIPT
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United Statesrenewable energyattractiveness indices
February 2012
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Table of contents 3
US highlights 5
Life after 1603 6
Production tax credit expiration 7
8
Market activity 9
All renewables index 11
13
Commentary: key states 17
IRS guidance 18
Excerpt: country
attractiveness indices
Country focus: Canada
Country focus: Mexico
Commentary: guidance notes
energy services
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 83
Overview of indices
provide scores for state renewable energy markets, renewable
energy infrastructures and their suitability for individual
attributes (such as unexploited wind resources, attractive power
pricing or tax climate) will score well even if that state currently has
All renewables indexThis index provides an overall score for all renewable energy
It combines individual technology indices as follows:
Individual technology indices
These indices are derived from scoring:
Renewables infrastructure index
This index is an assessment by state of the general regulatory
considers:
Technology factors
Each of the technology indices considers, on a weighted basis,
the following:
Long-term solar indexThese indices are derived from scoring:
Comments and suggestions
We welcome your comments or suggestions on any aspect of the
and/or suggestions:Mike Bernier | [email protected]
Dorian Hunt | [email protected]
Paul Naumoff | [email protected]
Gabriel Wuebben | [email protected]
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GlossaryAWEA American Wind Energy
Association
CHP Combined Heat and Power
DOE Department of Energy
GC Green CertificateGW Gigawatt (1,000 MW)
IPO Initial Public Offering
IRR Internal Rate of Return
ITC Investment Tax Credit
kWh Kilowatt Hour (1,000 Wh)
M&A Mergers and Acquisitions
MW Megawatt (1,000 kW)
MWh Megawatt hour (1,000,000 Wh)
PE Private EquityPPA Power Purchase Agreement
PTC Production Tax Credit
PV Photovoltaic
REC Renewable Energy Certificates
RPS Renewable Portfolio Stand
SREC Solar Renewable Energy
Certificate
WREGIS Western Renewable Energy
Generation Information SysUSPREF US Partnership for Renewa
Energy Finance
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 85
US highlights
All Renewables IndexDespite uncertain macroeconomic conditions, renewables
geothermal, comprising a much smaller proportion of the US
in the All Renewable Index, thanks in part to consistent growth
Long-term Wind Index
Californias offtake prices, favorable regulatory and incentive
environment and outstanding resource quality secured its top
growth and this region represents the greatest concentration of
Long-term Solar Index
hold in current markets and expanding geographically to attractive
segment, while Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) projects
Biomass/Geothermal Index
As mentioned, Californias All Renewables Index performance
was not limited to solar and wind; the states geothermal and
Renewable Index standing was helped by its strong geothermal
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Life after 1603
Last year closed with the expiration of the Section 1603
Despite the expiration at the end of the year, many projects were
With the closing of the 1603 Grant, tax equity is set to reclaim a
a renewal of the 1603 Grant by congress, developers must once
equity, reintroducing a level of complexity and costs temporarily
equity providers active in the market compared with over twenty
Thus, demand for tax equity is likely to outstrip a vastly diminished
renewable energy research organization, projects that tax equity
projects were grandfathered into the 1603 program and many
on our anecdotal experience and informal feedback from client
discussions, we estimate that the amount of 1603 Grants claimed
out from the safety of the 1603 program and need to survive
companies that have not traditionally invested in tax equity
adequate and predictable tax liability to step in and augment the
supply provided by traditional tax equity providers (historically,
participation of these new entrants to dramatically change the
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 87
Production tax creditexpiration
on three occasions, decimating the industry on each occasion, only
are no illusions with respect to the impact this uncertainty will
In addition to damaging wind development, expiration of the PTC
deployed turbines, and there is reason to believe this percentage
can grow to nearly 100,000 American jobs in the next four years
Road Map to Renewal report endorsed extending the PTC for wind
energy, concluding that, aside from preserving jobs, extending
production tax credits will also promote the type of innovation and
investment America needs to diversify its generation portfolio and
more than 370 members including organizations representing
legislation also enjoys the support of the bipartisan Governors
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Normalization
retroactively amends Section 1603(f) of the American Recovery &
been required to follow the rules dealing with the recapture of the
to the utilities customers, generally over the useful life of the
method of accounting for ITCs when setting the rates they charge
customers in lower rates in the year they are realized, but must
Among other things, Section 1603 included language that applieda set of recapture rules under Section 50 to the grant program
(since the grant program was intended to replicate energy
Section 50 of the Code provides a regime for recapturingpreviously claimed investment credits in certain circumstances, but
also includes the reference to normalization requirements under
By applying this provision to the 1603 grant program, the drafters
arguably eliminated the ability of public utilities to participate in
the grant program unless the grants are subject to normalization
requirement to normalize grant proceeds There were public utilities
the application of the normalization requirement was not clear, if
a manner identical to energy investment tax credits, the amounts
they would be required to charge customers for renewable power
energy projects subject to the Section 1603 Treasury grant
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 89
Market activity
GeneralLast year saw the United States reclaim its position as the global
leader in renewable energy investment, a position lost to China in
Investment was concentrated in the two established renewable
energy technologies, solar and wind, which both saw record
technologies was due in part to developers efforts to break
expiration of the Grants, developers will have to structure project
could result in increasing tax equity yields which, combined with
increasingly competitive PPA bidding processes, may provide
Wind
tax equity challenges, the PTC, wind powers key incentive, is set to
again rush to commence projects in time to take advantage of
may suffer a collapse similar to those experienced with previous
installations with over 500 MW commissioned at the Cedar Creek II
wind power to the nations Southeast in the coming years through
a series of at least nine contracts with Midwestern states, which
A number of massive wind developments are scheduled to come
only for its scale; it also represents major contributions from
Solar
then, global oversupply has pushed silicon spot prices down from
was installed in California, and nationwide growth can be attributed
As this model and its geographic reach expand, the residential
This is a sample of the main market activities in the renewables
sector over the past quarter.
Sources
All information relating to market activity in the sector is obtained
from publicly available sources.
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states traditionally recognized as strong solar states, are absent
own success, these states have seen the prices of SRECs fallprecipitously as developers rushed in to take advantage of high
SREC prices at the tail end of the last decade, resulting in what
are likely to see substantially reduced activity in coming years
Biomass/GeothermalAlthough solar and wind posted stellar years, biomass and
Although mentioned less than wind, biomass and geothermal
extension of the PTC would include extensions not only for wind,
Geothermal saw some legislative victories in recent months,
including Senate Energy Committee passage of the Geothermal
federal loan program for geothermal exploration drilling, and
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 811
All renewables indexFebruary 2012
Rank StateAll renewables
index
Long-term
wind index
Long-term
solar index*
Biomass
Index
Geothermal
index
Infrastructure
index**
1 California 67 74 75 77 79 80
2 New Mexico 62 71 68 57 63 72
3 Colorado 61 72 64 55 69 65
4 Hawaii 60 64 70 65 69 61
5 Massachusetts 59 61 70 65 66 78
5 Texas 59 70 63 58 57 63
7 Illinois 58 70 56 71 69 718 Maine 57 65 56 82 75 85
8 Pennsylvania 57 68 56 66 73 74
8 New York 57 67 58 69 73 71
8 Nevada 57 61 66 53 70 65
12 Iowa 55 67 52 70 58 64
13 Oregon 54 66 52 66 66 68
14 Michigan 53 63 52 65 60 67
14 Arizona 53 55 64 56 64 53
14 Oklahoma 53 66 51 49 51 51
17 Maryland 52 58 60 60 65 6717 North Carolina 52 59 54 65 59 66
17 Montana 52 65 50 56 58 66
17 Florida 52 56 60 62 58 65
17 New Jersey 52 58 59 56 61 61
17 South Dakota 52 65 49 54 58 59
17 New Hampshire 52 56 59 64 68 54
17 Vermont 52 58 59 57 65 52
17 Kansas 52 65 50 55 52 47
* Represents the index score for large, commercial and residential solar
** Combines with each set of technology factors to generate the individual
technology indices
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Wind indices
Rank State Wind index
1 California 74
2 Colorado 72
3 New Mexico 71
4 Illinois 70
4 Texas 70
6 Pennsylvania 68
7 New York 67
7 Iowa 67
9 Oregon 66
9 Oklahoma 66
illustrates its transmission limitations, a problem that may see
Solar indices
Rank State Solar index
1 California 75
2 Hawaii 70
2 Massachusetts 70
4 New Mexico 68
5 Nevada 66
6 Colorado 64
6 Arizona 64
8 Texas 63
9 Maryland 60
9 Florida 60
Interestingly, lacking from this list are traditionally strong solar
Long-term indices asof February 2012 (top 10)
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 813
Residential installations enjoyed uninterrupted administration
of the California Solar Initiative (CSI), a statewide program
program, the CSI has spurred huge growth, although funds for
Another program which should result in growth in distributed
generation is the Renewable Auction Mechanism (RAM), a
RPS Program by reducing transaction costs and providing a
a streamlined contracting mechanism and utilizes a standard
intends to generate 1,000 MW in distributed generation through
utilities to sell the electricity produced by small renewable energy
Commentary:high-scoring states
California
Category Ranking
All renewables index 1
Long-term wind index 1
Long-term solar index 1
California stands alone as the renewable energy capital of thenation, leading the wind, solar and geothermal indices and holding
blessed with enviable resource quality in all technologies under
from attractive offtake prices, generous state policies and a
Although Texas stands alone as the king of wind installed base
each with nearly 1 GW more installed base than the tertiary states
recently, California has seen its total wind capacity expand through
across all markets, particularly within the residential and utility
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New Mexico
Category Ranking
All renewables index 2
Long-term wind index 3
Long-term solar index 4
opportunity for renewable energy in its stellar portfolio of potential
has seen substantial growth with the commissioning of the
favorable regulatory environment, as well as housing what is to be
the countrys preeminent interconnection hub in the Tres Amigas
Groundbreaking for the Tres Amigas SuperStation is expected for
enabling the buying and selling of electricity throughout various
Colorado
Category Ranking
All renewables index 3
Long-term wind index 2
Long-term solar index 6
Like other leading states, Colorado enhances its bounty ofoutstanding natural resources with favorable policy and effective
the only national laboratory solely dedicated to advancing
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 815
In solar development, Colorado saw the installation of a major
residential segment of the solar market may cool in response to
approaching this benchmark, there is some concern that solar
Hawaii
Category Ranking
All renewables index 4
Long-term wind index 15
Long-term solar index 2
renewables investment, due in great part to its extremely high
power offtake prices and abundant wind, solar and geothermal
installed on each of Molokai and Lanai islands and connected to
solar were responsible for performing a study demonstrating the
For more details on the USAI and previous issues,
please visit:
www.ey.com/USAI
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Massachusetts
Category Ranking
All renewables index 5
Long-term wind index 19
Long-term solar index 2
Although not necessarily a powerhouse wind state, Massachusetts
There are indications that this lure may draw developers from
Like Colorado, Massachusetts has positioned itself as a hub of
global shakeout of less competitive solar manufacturers, asEvergreen Solar shuttered its Danvers manufacturing facility in the
Although not included in our scoring, it is worth noting that Cape
Texas
Category Ranking
All renewables index 5
Long-term wind index 4
Long-term solar index 8
Texas holds a commanding lead in national installed capacity
and resource quality, although the states solar attributes are
Despite enviable solar intensity, Texas has lagged behind its
neighboring southwestern states in solar development, likely due
to the states concentration on wind power and the aforementioned
connect Garland, Texas, to the southeast through Louisiana and
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 817
Commentary:key states
New Jersey and Pennsylvania
states overbuilt and are currently dealing with hangovers in which
amount of SRECs utilities are required to purchase and closes off
out in the states RPS in order to boost SREC prices and stabilize
to vote on a bill that would have performed this, and thus awaits
For more details on the USAI and previous issues,please visit
www.ey.com/USAI
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IRS provides guidanceon federal energy tax
credits
Private letter rulings generallyapplicable to tax credits
Solar facility In US possession
a domestic partnership with domestic corporations for partners,
tax credit availability for projects in US possessions that technically
applies to eligible corporations to partnerships composed of
determination for a wind farm located in a US possession in PLR
The taxpayer is a wholly owned domestic limited liability company
taxpayers primary business is to construct, own and operate
The Service ruled that since all of the partners will be taxable
domestic corporations or US citizens (none of which has made an
election under Sections 936, 931 or 936), the partnership is a US
each partner will be entitled to its share of the energy credit to the
Energy Storage Devices
The wind farm will be owned by a limited liability company
subsidiary of a large power company headquartered in the United
The storage device will enable the wind farm to provide regulation
consumption of electricity over time periods ranging from seconds
The storage device is used expressly to store for later use electricity
The Service ruled that the storage device is not transmission
redacted, the exact nature of the system is otherwise not
components, the Service concluded that the components are
credit except for that portion of the system that performs the
normal functions of a roof such as protection from rain, snow,
wind, sun, hot or cold temperatures, or that provides structural
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 819
ARRA Section 1603 Grant developments
property between the time the property is acquired for use in a
are related and the property is used for the same project, then the
paid or incurred, at the same time as the transferor, the costs that
test is used to determine whether the transferor and transferee
applicants generally in the business of developing energy projects
that the transferor incurred with respect to the property into
limitation does not apply to a sale/leaseback arrangement if the
other requirements are met, the purchaser of the facility would be
before the property is placed in service, eligibility is not affected if
eligible Section 1603 applicant and the entity being sold must
have commenced development of a project as evidenced by
obtaining permits and licenses, entering into a power purchase
agreement, entering into an interconnection agreement, and
contracting with an Engineering, Procurement and Construction
may not rely on costs paid or incurred to acquire that equipment in
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Excerpt: Country attractiveness indices (CAI)February 2012
Rank1 CountryAll
renewables
Wind
index
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Solar
index
Solar
PV
Solar
CSP
Biomass/
otherGeothermal Infrastructure
1 (1) China 70 76 79 69 61 66 46 58 51 74
2 (2) USA3 68 67 71 57 74 74 75 63 69 65
3 (3) Germany 66 70 67 80 51 70 0 67 58 74
4 (4) India 63 64 71 43 65 69 54 60 45 67
5 (6) UK 59 66 61 80 34 48 0 58 36 66
6 (5) Italy 57 58 61 50 57 63 42 53 62 58
7 (7) France 56 58 59 55 49 56 29 57 34 56
8 (8) Canada 54 61 67 46 33 46 0 50 36 65
9 (10) Sweden 50 54 55 53 31 42 0 56 35 55
10 (10) Brazil 49 51 56 40 42 46 32 51 23 49
11 (12) Australia 48 47 51 37 53 53 54 42 57 46
11 (9) Spain 48 47 51 36 55 53 60 43 27 38
13 (13) Romania 47 52 56 39 33 45 0 44 41 4614 (13) Poland 46 52 56 41 30 42 0 42 22 47
14 (15) South Korea 46 48 46 53 44 50 29 41 36 43
16 (15) Japan 45 46 48 39 52 61 27 38 46 52
16 (15) Belgium 45 51 49 58 30 42 0 38 27 50
16 (23) South Africa 45 47 52 36 43 41 50 37 34 48
19 (15) Ireland 44 52 52 50 22 30 0 43 23 48
19 (19) Denmark 44 48 44 58 29 40 0 45 33 52
21 (19) Portugal 43 45 48 34 44 47 36 39 25 38
21 (21) Netherlands 43 49 49 49 30 42 0 36 21 41
21 (21) Greece 43 44 48 33 46 51 33 34 25 32
24 (23) Mexico 42 43 45 39 42 43 40 38 54 38
24 (23) Norway 42 48 48 46 21 29 0 45 30 51
26 (26) Finland 41 45 48 39 20 28 0 52 26 47
27 (27) New Zealand 40 46 49 36 22 31 0 34 51 46
27 (27) Egypt 40 41 45 32 41 39 45 35 25 34
27 (27) Taiwan 40 43 45 38 32 44 0 35 38 43
30 (30) Morocco 39 38 42 26 49 47 54 36 21 42
30 (30) Turkey 39 41 43 32 37 40 28 34 41 37
32 (32) Ukraine 38 37 41 27 33 46 0 43 32 41
33 (33) Austria4 36 32 40 0 36 50 0 48 33 50
34 (34) Tunisia 34 35 38 27 45 44 48 19 27 41
34 (34) Bulgaria 34 35 39 24 31 42 0 33 34 39
34 (34) Argentina 34 35 40 22 31 36 17 31 27 34
37 (37) Israel 33 31 37 14 44 46 38 25 28 38
38 (39) Chile 32 34 38 23 30 34 19 27 36 39
39 (38) Hungary4 31 31 38 0 26 36 0 41 39 37
40 (40) Czech Republic4 30 31 38 0 26 36 0 30 23 46
1
3
For more details on the CAI and
previous issues,please visit
www.ey.com/CAI
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 821
Canada
Renewables buoyed by Ontarioelection result5
Ranking Issue 32 Issue 31
All renewables index 8 8
Wind index 6 6
Solar index 23 25
Policy
renewable energy policies were a key political battleground,
with the main opposition party promising to revoke supporting
industry, the incumbent Liberal party retained leadership and were
provide strong support for the industry through programs such as
and was recognized among the renewables industry to ensure
Proponent Technology MW
Colchester-Cumberland
Wind Field
Onshore
wind
0.1
Watts Wind Energy Onshore
wind
4.0
Northumberland Wind Field Onshore
wind
0.1
Municipality of the District
of Chester
Onshore
wind
2.3
Fundy Tidal Tidal flow 2.0
study and complete federal and environmental impact assessments
and the market is eagerly awaiting the recommencement of project
5
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Country focus
Onshore wind
the past quarter with Kruger Energysecuring construction
Boralex Inc.,the renewable independent power producer (IPP),
and utility, Gaz Mtro,
KFW Group,
TransCanada Corp.,
of the wider Cartier Wind Energy Project being developed by
TransCanada
power will be sold to Hydro-Quebec
SolarRecurrent Energy,
owned by Sharp Corp., revolving credit facility from Mizuho Financial Group Inc. to fund
Wave and tidal
The province of British Columbia has awarded Carnegie Wave
Energy Ltd.,a producer of wave power technology, a grant of
The company, which also has backing fromElectricite de France
SA (EDF),
Contacts
Ernst & Young LLP (Canada)
Mark Porter
Cynthia Orr
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 8
Mexicos prospects for a clean energytransition6
Ranking Issue 32 Issue 31
All renewables index 24 23
Wind index 27 28
Solar index 17 16
Policy
department responsible for energy production and regulation,
A recently issued Study on prospects for renewable energy
Currently, the country is close to meeting a number of national
renewable energy targets across a range of technologies including
increase the share of clean technologies supplying power to the
are being provided by Germany to work in collaboration with the
developing renewable energy initiatives as well as other measures
and wind power projects with total renewable electricity generation
of around 1GW, going some way to meeting Mexicos ambitious
Onshore windMexicos Electric Power Research Institute has conducted studies
area is potentially viable for the installation of wind farms due to
feasibility of wind generation, the wind energy potential resource
are naturally the most attractive from a generation point of view,
under the nuances of the Mexican electricity market, plants with
Mexico is privileged to have one of the worlds best wind resources
representing one of the largest wind farms in Latin America
Marea
Renovables Capital.
Country focusCanadaMexico
23
6
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The project will reduce annual carbon dioxide emissions by 1m
tons and supply energy to subsidiaries of Fomento Econmico
Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FEMSA)and Heineken,reducing the
Solar
Risen
Energy Co.signed an agreement with the government of the
Currently, Mexico has no operational solar CSP plants, however,
there is a project underway to develop a hybrid system consisting
Small hydro
and owned by the Mexican government with responsibility for
Contacts
Mancera S.C.
Roberto Cuaron
David Escalante
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United States renewable energy attractiveness indices | Issue 825
Commentary:guidance notes
Long-term index
combine to generate the all renewables index, are made up
as follows:
These guidance notes provide further details on the renewables
Renewables infrastructure index
The renewables infrastructure index is an assessment by state of
weighted basis, the index considers:
upon the immediacy of the target deadlines, the amount of
renewable energy that needs to be developed to meet the
target, penalties if the target is missed and the presence of a
scoring is based on the ease of obtaining a grid connection in
This generic renewables infrastructure index is combined
with each set of technology factors to provide the individual
Technology factors
assessments for each state, namely:
Each of the technology indices considers, on aweighted basis, the following factors:
1
the price received (including proceeds from RECsales and other major incentive programs such as
state production tax credits) per kWh of electricity
2Tax climate (8%)
that stimulate renewable energy generation can
incentives and structures are direct renewable energy
tax breaks, sales tax abatements for equipment,
real estate tax abatements and accelerated tax
3Grant or soft loan availability (8%)
available at local and/or regional levels, and typically
tend to be more prevalent in immature markets or
4Market growth potential (26%)
a holistic approach to estimating a states projected
account information contained in other categories, as
well as information gathered but not included in one
5Current installed base (8%)
demonstrate that the state has an established
infrastructure and supply chain in place, which will
also indicative of the acceptance for such projects,
and the lack of public support can make planning and
6Resource quality (18%)
of resources available; for example, wind speeds and
For more details on the USAI and previous issues,
please visit
www.ey.com/USAI
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Ernst & Youngrenewable energy
services
Team overview
Advisory Services (TCIAS) helps take advantage of the
opportunities and address the risks associated with renewable
Members of the group, supported by a network of experienced
services in the following areas:
Tax credit monetization
Strategic planning
Transaction structuring
Investment due diligence
In addition to TCIAS, our Indirect Tax and Business Tax Services
Group provides a wide variety of tax advisory services to the
Renewable Energy Group
renewable energy country attractiveness indices and the biofuels
areas:
Asset valuation
Transaction support
PPA tendering
go to www.ey.com/renewables
Strategic Growth Markets
companies sustains our dominant competitive position in key
markets, including our Assurance and Advisory services share
experience in convening the experts who shape the business
climate, and advising policy makers on the issues affecting these
in their real and personal property projects, including helping to
Washington Council Ernst & Young (WCEY)
represents a wide variety of renewable energy technologies and
Business incentives and credit services
clients utilize economic development incentives offered by US
state and local governments, including cash grants, tax credits,
information on our services, and for future copies of the indices,
Contacts
Ernst & Young LLP
Michael Bernier
Dorian Hunt
Paul Naumoff
Gabriel Wuebben
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Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
About Ernst & Young
We make a difference by helping our people,
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This publication contains information in
summary form and is therefore intended for
be a substitute for detailed research or the
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