2011 sept.ducker webinar

The Changing Make Up of Automobiles

Survey Results: Aluminum Usage by

North American Automakers

An Aluminum Association Webinar

September 23, 20111www.aluminumintransportation.org

Defining Who We Are

2

The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)

www.aluminumintransportation.org

Introductions

3

Doug Richman

ATG Executive and

Technical Committees

Vice President

Engineering & Technology

Kaiser Aluminum

Randall Scheps

ATG Chairman

Marketing Director

Alcoa, Inc.


Why We are Here Today

• Promote a holistic, multi-material approach combining

strong lightweight materials like aluminum with smart

design and advanced powertrains

• Agenda

– Benefits of Lightweighting with Aluminum

– Results of 2011 Ducker Survey of Automakers on Aluminum

Content in Passenger Vehicles

– Q & A

4www.aluminumintransportation.org

Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing


• Two main factors

leading automakers

to rethink vehicle

design– Consumer demand and

desire for increased fuel

efficiency coupled with a

need to continuously

improve safety, function

and comfort

– New, stringent fuel

economy standards

Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle


Reduced Emissions

Mass Reduction

Enhanced Performance

Improved Safety

Better Fuel Economy

Infinitely Recyclable

Automakers Confirm Plans to

Downweight

• Audi: To migrate aspects of the ASF® technology currently in the A8

to higher volume vehicles like the A6

• BMW: To use more aluminum to cut weight

• Ford: To trim 250-750 lbs. out of each model year

• GM: To trim 500 lbs by 2016 and 1,000 lbs. by 2020

• Jaguar Land Rover: To construct all future vehicles with aluminum

bodies

• Nissan: To reduce 15% of vehicle weight

7

Aluminum-Intensive Vehicles Today:

Maintained Size, Decreased Weight

8

2011 Audi TT

Roadster ASF 58%

aluminum and Coupe

ASF 69% aluminumSource: Audi

2011 Audi A8

ASF all aluminum

except the B-pillarsSource: Audi

2011 Jaguar XJ

All aluminum

body structure

saves 150kg

compared to its

competitorsSource: Jaguar

• Better fuel economy

• No downsizing

• Improved handling

• Lower lifetime CO2

• Improved safety

• Enables cost savings


Aluminum in 2012 North

American Light Vehicles

Survey of North American

Automakers by Ducker Worldwide


Survey Objectives

• Primary Objective

– Accurate estimate of 2012 North American

light vehicle aluminum content

• Secondary Objective

– Estimate “most likely” material mix through

2025


Methodology

• Detailed analysis of aluminum content

– Segment

– Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)

– More than 90 components

• Iron, steel, aluminum and magnesium

• All product forms – cast, rolled and

extruded

• Interviews conducted with automotive

engineers

– Major OEMs

– Tier One suppliers

– Material producers


Core Findings


40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

Po

un

ds p

er

Veh

icle

Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle

Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011

2012

343 lbs per vehicle

Average increase of 7 lbs per year

for 35 years

Aluminum Share Expected to Double

14Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011


Perc

ent of

Mate

rial M

ix

50% 51% 54%

42% 38% 30%

8% 11% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2015 2025

Aluminum

Flat Rolled Steel

All OtherMaterials

Component Analysis


Aluminum Content in 2012

16

125

14

23

24

49

60

69

70

88

89

112

115

126

130

371

516

588

636

785

790

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

All Other Compnents

Drive Shafts & Yokes

IP Structure

Cradles & Crossmembers

Engine Mounts

Other Steering

Differential Carriers

Bumpers

Transfer Cases

Control Arms & Links

Intake Manifolds

Steering Knuckles

Closures

Brake Parts

Other Engine

Heat Transfer

Cylinder Heads

Cylinder Blocks

Transmissions

Wheels

Millions of Pounds

Nearly 80% of engine blocks

in 2012 are aluminum

Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011www.aluminumintransportation.org

Record aluminum

content in 2012:

•Engine Blocks

•Closures

•Bumpers

•Steering Knuckles

•IP Structures

Aluminum Penetration for Key

Components in 2012


20%

31%

40%

45%

70%

80%

98%

100%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bumpers

Hoods

Control Arms

Steering Knuckles

Wheels

Cylinder Blocks

Cylinder Heads

Transmission

Heat Exchangers

Total Components

2009-2012 Aluminum Content Growth


1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

10%

16%

19%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Heat Transfer

Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Wheels & Brakes

Average Increase

Steering

Suspension

Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closure (over 50% from closures)


Total Pounds

50% Percent of Knuckles

Aluminum in 2012


Source: Ducker Worldwide 2009 and 2011

1%

17% 19%

30%

39%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

20% of All Bumpers Aluminum in 2012

20Source: Ducker Worldwide 2009 and 2011


7%5% 6%

9%

11%

20%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Aluminum Hood Growth


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

6%

10%

14%

19%

23%

31%Over 30%

of all the hoods will

be aluminum

in 2012


Evolution of Body-in-White Construction


Aluminum Intensive Vehicle

Steel & Aluminum Hybrid – Majority

Aluminum

Today 2015 2020 2025

Optimized

Multi-Material

Steel & Aluminum Hybrid – Majority Steel

High Strength Alloy

Aluminum

High Strength Aluminum

Steel

Source: Alcoa

Segment Analysis


E Segment Vehicles Leader in Total

Aluminum Pounds Per Segment

24

050

100150200250300350400450

229275

363

421

329354 343

Alu

min

um

Po

un

ds p

er

Veh

icle

2012 Aluminum Pounds per Segment


Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight

by Segment



8.5%9.6% 10.0% 9.7%

8.7%

6.8%

9.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

North American Aluminum

Content Leaders

Honda content leader as percent of

curb weight at 10.7% per vehicle


Source: General Motors Media Site

2012 Chevrolet Malibu

Aluminum Content 385 Lbs


GM content leader at 366 lbs per vehicle

2012 Honda CRV

Aluminum Content 10.9%

Source: Honda Media Site

Top Aluminum Content Vehicles

• Newer vehicles have average

aluminum content 10.4% of

vehicle curb weight (vs. 9%)



- Cadillac ATS

- Cadillac XTS

- Chevrolet Malibu

- Chrysler 300

- Chrysler/Fiat C

Sedan

- Fiat 500

- Ford Explorer

- Ford Escape

- Ford Fusion

- Honda Accord

- Honda Civic

- Honda CR-V

- Lincoln MKZ

- Mercedes-Benz

ML-Class

- Nissan Altima

- Toyota Avalon

2012 Ford Escape

Aluminum content 10.9%Source: Ford Media Site

2012 Nissan Altima

Aluminum content 11.1%Source: Nissan Media Site

2012 Chrysler 300

Aluminum content 10.6%Source: Chrysler Media Site

Ducker Worldwide

Aluminum Forecast


Aluminum Growth Projected to Reach

400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

Po

un

ds p

er

Veh

icle

Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle

2015

400 lbs per vehicle

The trend line continues

to be supported by

new aluminum applications


2012

343 lbs per vehicle

New Applications Required to

Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario

30

12

10

6

3 2 3

58

10 11 121

4

8

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Po

un

ds

pe

r V

eh

icle

North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Increases

Pounds per Vehicle New Applications

(Primarily body, bumper

and closure components)


Ducker Long Term Forecast

Assumptions

• 51 MPG 2025* fuel economy target

• 10% average weight reduction

• 44% HEVs

• 1 sq. ft. (2% from 2008 EPA base year)

footprint reduction


* Average based on 54.5 MPG for cars and at least 46.5 MPG for light trucks


Significant Growth For Aluminum

Predicted by 2025


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

Po

un

ds p

er

Veh

icle

Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 2025

550 lbs per vehicle

The trend line continues

to be supported by

new aluminum applications


2012

343 lbs per vehicle

Aluminum Pounds Per Truck

Predicted to Increase Dramatically

33

373 394 420

450 459 485 498 513 528

585 607 629 650 671

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Car Truck


Average Aluminum Pounds Per Vehicle

Car vs. Light Truck

Average Vehicle Must Lose Over

400 Lbs of Curb Weight by 2025



80, 20%

180, 44%

78, 19%

70, 17%

Sources of Weight Savings for 4% CAGR for MPG

Add 250 lbs. of AHSS

Add 225 lbs. of Aluminum

Weight Compounding Effect

Reduce Footprint One Square Foot

Add 225 lbs. of

aluminum

Add 250 lbs. of AHSS

replacing mild steel

Weight compounding

effect

1 sq. ft. footprint

reduction

408 lbs. saved or 10% over

2008 (NHTSA/EPA base year)

Average Net Cost of Direct and

Indirect Weight Reduction

• Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective

in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025

35Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 & IBIS 2005


Cost Dollar/Pound

Saved

Primary $2.00

Secondary ($1.82)

Net Cost $0.18

Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings

Ducker Study Conclusions

• Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations are

driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage

– Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts

• Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy and

maintain or improve size, function, safety and comfort

• Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective part of

the solution



Ducker Study Conclusions

• By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs.

– Aluminum and AHSS

– Aluminum

• Sheet , extrusions

• Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components

• Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight

– 343 pounds in 2012

– 550 pounds in 2025

– Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years

– Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010

• This is a conservative forecast37www.aluminumintransportation.org


Question & Answer

38

Please submit questions through the box

that appears on your screen


For additional aluminum research in the areas of safety, cost,

alternative powertrains, growth and sustainability, to sign-up for

the ATG’s monthly newsletter and/or download this presentation,

please visit us online at www.aluminumintransportation.org or

e-mail [email protected]

Thank You

http://www.aluminumintransportation.org/

mailto:[email protected]

2011 sept.ducker webinar

Business

bumpers aluminum

aluminum results

aluminum usage

aluminum penetration

aluminum share

aluminum content growthbody

aluminumintensive vehicles

percent of knuckles