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2011 REPORT ON REGIONAL UNMET NEEDS
Early Warning Systems in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia
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Early Warn�ng Systems �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�a
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
March 2011
ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness
2011 Report on Reg�onal Unmet Needs
ST/ESCAP/2594
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About this report
Th�s report has been developed at the request of the Adv�sory Counc�l of the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness and w�ll act as a gu�de for future fund�ng.
Th�s report updates the 2009 ESCAP Report on Reg�onal Unmet Needs �n Tsunam� Early Warn�ng Systems. In l�ne w�th the Fund’s Strateg�c Plan, th�s update also �ncludes �nformat�on on early warn�ng of other coastal hazards �n the reg�on.
This report continues to be closely guided by the key elements for Early Warning Systems (EWS) found �n the “Checkl�st” developed as a product of the Th�rd Internat�onal Conference on Early Warn�ng held �n 2006.�
Figure 1: The Five Elements of Effective Early Warning Systems�
The Checkl�st also covers cross cutt�ng �ssues such as a mult�-hazard approach, �nvolvement of local commun�t�es and cons�derat�on of gender perspect�ves and cultural d�vers�ty.
Th�s report �s a broad, reg�onal overv�ew and analys�s of unmet needs �n reg�onal early warn�ng systems of tsunam� and coastal hazards, based on desk research and consultat�on w�th key ESCAP partners. A l�st of documents consulted for th�s Study �s �ncluded �n Annex A of th�s Report. The draft of th�s report was prepared by Just�n Shone, Consultant.
ESCAP would l�ke to thank the Governments of Tha�land, Sweden, Turkey, Bangladesh and Nepal, which have made financial contributions to the Fund, and the many other countries and partners that have made �mportant contr�but�ons of the�r t�me and expert�se.
1 ISDR (2006) Third International Conference on Early Warning, Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist.2 ISDR Platform for the Promot�on of Early Warn�ng Systems
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Table of ContentsAcronyms and Abbrev�at�ons v��Execut�ve Summary �x
Chapter 1: Introduct�on 1.2 ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness 11.2 Assess�ng Reg�onal Unmet Needs �n Early Warn�ng of Coastal and Cl�mate Hazards 2
Chapter 2: Cl�mate change adaptat�on and d�saster r�sk reduct�on
2.1 Cl�mate change negot�at�ons 52.2 Linking climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) 52.3 Asia – Pacific context 6
Chapter 3: Governance and Inst�tut�onal Arrangements 3.1 Coord�nat�on and Cooperat�on Mechan�sms 93.2 Legal and Pol�cy Frameworks 123.3 F�nanc�al Resources 123.4 Pr�or�t�es and recommendat�ons 13
Chapter 4: R�sk Knowledge 4.1 Introduct�on 154.2. Organ�zat�onal Arrangements 154.3 Coastal hazards �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�a 154.3.1 Tsunam� 154.3.2 Floods 174.3.3 Trop�cal Cyclones 184.4. Hazard, Vulnerab�l�ty, and R�sk Assessment 184.5. Informat�on Storage and Access�b�l�ty 194.6 Pr�or�t�es and Recommendat�ons 20
Chapter 5: Mon�tor�ng and Warn�ng Serv�ce 5.1 Introduct�on 215.2 Inst�tut�onal Mechan�sms 215.3 Mon�tor�ng and Observ�ng Systems 225.4 Forecast�ng and Warn�ng Systems 255.5 Priorities and Recommendations: 25
Chapter 6: Commun�cat�on and D�ssem�nat�on of Warn�ngs 6.1 Introduct�on 276.2 Organ�zat�onal and Dec�s�on Mak�ng Processes 276.3 Effect�ve Commun�cat�on Systems and Equ�pment 286.4 D�ssem�nat�ng Warn�ng Messages 296.5 Priorities and recommendations: 30
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7.1 Introduct�on 317.2 React�on to Warn�ngs 317.3 D�saster Preparedness and Response Plans 327.4 Commun�ty Response Capac�ty 327.5 Publ�c Awareness and Educat�on 337.6 S�mulat�ons and Dr�lls 347.7 Pr�or�t�es and Recommendat�ons 35
Annex 1: B�bl�ography 37
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
AADMER ASEAN Agreement on D�saster Management and Emergency ResponseABU Asia-Pacific Broadcasting UnionADB As�an Development Bank ACDM ASEAN Comm�ttee on D�saster Management ADPC As�an D�saster Preparedness Center ADRC As�an D�saster Reduct�on CenterADRRN As�an D�saster Response and Recovery NetworkAIT As�an Inst�tute of TechnologyASEAN Assoc�at�on of Southeast As�an Nat�onsATWS Austral�an Tsunam� Warn�ng SystemBAP Bal� Act�on PlanBIMSTEC Bay of Bengal In�t�at�ve for Mult�-Sectoral Techn�cal and Econom�c Cooperat�onCBDRM Commun�ty-based D�saster R�sk ManagementCCA Cl�mate Change Adaptat�onCCR Coastal Commun�ty Res�l�enceCOP Conference of the Part�esCRED Centre for Research on Ep�dem�ology of D�sastersCTBTO Comprehens�ve Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organ�zat�onDART Deep-ocean Assessment and Report�ng of Tsunam�sDRR D�saster R�sk Reduct�onEOC Emergency Operat�ons CentreESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the PacificEWS Early Warn�ng SystemGDPFS Global Data Process�ng and Forecast�ng SystemGLOSS Global Sea Level Observ�ng System GOS Global Observ�ng SystemGOOS Global Ocean Observ�ng SystemGSN Global Se�smograph�c NetworkGTS Global Telecommun�cat�ons SystemHFA Hyogo Framework for Act�onICAM Integrated Coastal Area Management ICG Intergovernmental Coord�nat�on GroupICT �nformat�on and commun�cat�on technologyIFRC Internat�onal Federat�on of Red Cross and Red Crescent Soc�et�esIO Ind�an OceanIOC UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanograph�c Comm�ss�on of UNESCOIOTWS Ind�an Ocean Tsunam� Warn�ng and M�t�gat�on SystemIOWave Ind�an Ocean WaveIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Cl�mate Change ISDR Internat�onal Strategy for D�saster Reduct�onITIC Internat�onal Tsunam� Informat�on CentreJMA Japan Meteorolog�cal Agency JTIC Jakarta Tsunam� Informat�on CentreJCOMM Jo�nt WMO-IOC Techn�cal Comm�ss�on for Oceanography and Mar�ne MeteorologyLoA Letter of AgreementMDGs M�llenn�um Development GoalsMoU Memorandum of Understand�ngNDWC Nat�onal D�saster Warn�ng CentreNEIC Nat�onal Earthquake Informat�on CenterNGI Norweg�an Geotechn�cal Inst�tuteNGOs non-governmental organ�zat�ons
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NMHS Nat�onal Meteorolog�cal and Hydrolog�cal Serv�cesNTWC Nat�onal Tsunam� Watch CentreOCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian AffairsPAGER Prompt Assessment of Global EarthquakesPPEW Platform for Promot�on of Early Warn�ngPTWC Pacific Tsunami Warning CenterPTWS Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation SystemRISTEK Indones�an State M�n�stry of Research and TechnologyRTWP Reg�onal Tsunam� Watch Prov�derSAARC South As�an Assoc�at�on for Reg�onal Cooperat�on SCMG Sub-Comm�ttee on Meteorology and Geo-phys�csSDMC SAARC D�saster Management CentreSEI Stockholm Env�ronment Inst�tuteSE�sComp Se�smolog�cal Commun�cat�on ProcessorSMS Short Message Serv�ceSOPs Standard Operat�ng Procedures TEWS Tsunam� Early Warn�ng SystemTWFP Tsunam� Warn�ng Focal Po�nt UNDP Un�ted Nat�ons Development ProgrammeUNDP-RCB UNDP Reg�onal Centre �n BangkokUNEP Un�ted Nat�ons Env�ronmental Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization USAID Un�ted States Agency for Internat�onal DevelopmentUSGS US Geolog�cal SurveyWG Work�ng GroupWMO World Meteorolog�cal Organ�zat�on
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Executive Summary
S�nce the Ind�an Ocean tsunam� of 2004, �ntens�ve work has been carr�ed out by a range of stakeholders to support the development of all elements of an early warn�ng system �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�a. Th�s �ncluded adopt�on of d�saster management leg�slat�on �n a number of countr�es, development of techn�cal mon�tor�ng and warn�ng serv�ces, and commun�ty-based �n�t�at�ves by a w�de var�ety of actors.
In some countr�es, these �n�t�at�ves have establ�shed the foundat�on for effect�ve act�on the next t�me an ocean-w�de tsunam� or other coastal hazards occurs. To some extent, the �n�t�at�ves rema�n fragmented, and there are also concerns about long-term sustainability. In almost all countries, a significant overarching need �s to strengthen partnersh�ps between these �n�t�at�ves and �ncorporate them �nto an overall Government framework w�th fund�ng from Government budgets and regular test�ng.
Cl�mate change �s pred�cted to �ncrease the frequency, sever�ty and �mpact of d�sasters �n As�a. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Cl�mate Change l�sts As�an and Afr�can megadeltas as one of the four areas of the world most vulnerable to the effects of cl�mate change, due to large populat�ons and h�gh exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding.3 There �s already ev�dence that cl�mate change �s alter�ng weather patterns. Th�s makes �t �ncreas�ngly l�kely that areas w�ll be exposed to d�sasters they are not used to, and are poorly prepared for.
The ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness. was establ�shed �n 2005, or�g�nally to support tsunam� early warn�ng through a mult�-hazard approach. In 2010 the key donors of the Fund approved the broaden�ng of the scope of the Fund to �nclude overall d�saster and cl�mate preparedness w�th�n �ts core areas of support. As the only United Nations Asia-Pacific fund in this area of work, and to avo�d spread�ng resources too th�nly, the Fund g�ves pr�or�ty to strateg�c �n�t�at�ves at the reg�onal level, �nclud�ng reg�onal resource shar�ng arrangements, South-South cooperat�on approaches, and �n�t�at�ves that can have value reg�on-wide (e.g., model or pilot approaches).
There are a large number of unmet needs w�th regard to early warn�ng of coastal hazards in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. This report identified the following as the most important priorities in strengthening early warning in the region:
R�sk knowledge �s an area of work that needs to be g�ven greater attent�on. Even at the broadest scale, the levels of r�sk from mega-d�sasters l�ke tsunam�s �n d�fferent parts of the reg�on are poorly understood. Partly as a result, most of the resources for d�saster r�sk reduct�on and early warn�ng are prov�ded �n the months follow�ng a major d�saster, and are often t�ed to the affected area and/or the part�cular type of d�saster that has just occurred.
Commun�cat�on and d�ssem�nat�on of warn�ngs, and response capac�ty—part�cularly at the “last m�le”—�s a part�cular challenge �n As�a because of �ts huge populat�on, strong d�spar�t�es �n wealth, culture and l�v�ng cond�t�ons, and the remoteness of many commun�t�es. There are a number of aspects that need ongo�ng strateg�c support, e.g., development of end-to-end Standard Operat�ng Procedures from the Government to the community levels, strengthening of partnerships (e.g., between Government, non-governmental organizations and the media) and dissemination of good practices (e.g., for education and awareness programmes).
3 IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change, 2007.
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• Support �ncreased coverage and use of r�sk and vulnerab�l�ty assessments, �n part�cular at the local level, bu�ld�ng on �n�t�at�ves l�ke ICG/IOTWS� tsunam� r�sk assessment gu�del�nes. Long-term assessments need to factor �n the expected �mpacts of cl�mate change.
• Strengthen end-to-end d�ssem�nat�on and response to warn�ngs through the development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that cover a range of hazards and l�nk the reg�onal, nat�onal, prov�nc�al and commun�ty levels.
• Support strateg�c reg�onal �n�t�at�ves to ra�se publ�c awareness of d�saster r�sks and how to prepare for and respond to them.
• Promote development of regulat�ons that st�pulate frequency for dr�lls, standards for evaluat�on, and procedures cover�ng d�fferent areas and hazards.
• Strengthen access to cr�t�cal �nformat�on, e.g., through reg�onal arrangements for standard�zed �nformat�on storage, compat�b�l�ty of technical systems, access to critical data (e.g., bathymetry) and their use for d�saster r�sk reduct�on, and support capac�ty bu�ld�ng �n these areas of work.
• Bu�ld �nst�tut�onal capac�t�es contr�but�ng to the susta�nab�l�ty and ma�ntenance of �nstrumentat�on networks that are requ�red for d�saster and cl�mate change mon�tor�ng, through a mult�-hazard approach, and in particular from a planning and policy perspective (including network-wide effectiveness reviews).
• Cost-benefit analysis of early warning, disaster risk reduction and cl�mate change �ntervent�ons at d�fferent levels.
4 Intergovernmental Coord�nat�on Group for the Ind�an Ocean Tsunam� Warn�ng and M�t�gat�on System, coord�nated by IOC UNESCO.
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CHAPTER 1 Introduction
Natural hazards, such as storms, floods, tsunamis, or earthquakes, create disasters when a commun�ty or populat�on �s exposed to these hazards and cannot cope w�th �ts effects. The effects of natural hazards can and have been reduced when people rece�ve an alert of what �s l�kely to happen soon, and are aware of the appropr�ate act�ons to take to get out of harms way. A warn�ng prompts people to take �mmed�ate act�on. The goal of a warn�ng �s to prevent hazards from becom�ng d�sasters.
An early warning system is defined by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) as:
The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.5
1.2 ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness
The ESCAP Tsunam� Reg�onal Trust Fund was establ�shed �n 2005, or�g�nally to support tsunam� early warn�ng through a mult�-hazard approach. The Fund has received contributions from the Governments of Thailand (US$ 10 million), Sweden (US$ 2.6 million), Turkey, Bangladesh and Nepal.
In 2010 the key donors of the Fund approved the broaden�ng of the scope of the Fund to �nclude overall d�saster and cl�mate preparedness w�th�n �ts core areas of support. Accord�ngly, the Fund changed �ts name to the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness.
End-to-end early warning, defined broadly, will be the overall framework for the Fund. In l�ne w�th the Fund’s object�ves and geograph�c scope, the Fund w�ll pr�mar�ly focus on early warn�ng of coastal hazards such as tsunam�s, coastal zone flooding, storm surges and cyclones, while continuing to adopt a multi-hazard approach.6 The Fund prov�des grants to Governments, �ntergovernmental and non-government organ�zat�ons, wh�ch subm�t appl�cat�ons through var�ous rounds of funding. As the only United Nations Asia-Pacific fund in this area of work, and to avo�d spread�ng resources too th�nly, the Fund g�ves pr�or�ty to strateg�c �n�t�at�ves at the reg�onal level, �nclud�ng reg�onal resource shar�ng arrangements, South-South cooperation approaches, and initiatives that can have value region-wide (e.g., model or pilot approaches).
The Fund works closely w�th Un�ted Nat�ons partners such as the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (IOC UNESCO), the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Some of the Fund’s efforts �n address�ng gaps and unmet needs �n early warn�ng include supporting:
5 UNISDR (2009) Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction.6 ESCAP (2009) Strategic Plan of ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness.
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on commun�ty-based hazard map development, wh�ch a�ms to use scientifically developed hazard maps in community preparedness act�v�t�es. Th�s �s v�ewed as a potent�al br�dge between act�ve ongo�ng work by the scientific community on the one hand, and on the other hand ongo�ng work by Governments and development agenc�es that are work�ng at the commun�ty level.
• tra�n�ng of selected governments �n the Coastal Commun�ty Res�l�ence methodology, wh�ch �s a tool for assess�ng the d�saster vulnerab�l�ty of a coastal commun�ty and target�ng �ssues on wh�ch further work �s needed.
• work led by IOC UNESCO to ra�se awareness of tsunam� hazard from the Makran fault us�ng paleotsunam� stud�es.
• work to promote appl�cat�on of the ICG/IOTWS r�sk assessment gu�del�nes �nto standard operat�ng procedures – th�s work focuses on Indones�a and Sr� Lanka.
• elements of Reg�onal Integrated Mult�-Hazard Early Warn�ng System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), which would be one of the Regional Tsunami Watch Prov�ders, and w�ll also prov�de early warn�ng of var�ous cl�mate hazards. As part of th�s centre, the Fund has also supported work to strengthen the reg�onal network of se�sm�c and sea level stat�ons through �nstallat�on of new stat�ons �n Myanmar, Ph�l�pp�nes and V�et Nam.
• work of IOC UNESCO on Standard Operat�ng Procedures for tsunam� warn�ng and emergency response focus�ng on four countr�es – Myanmar, Pak�stan, Ph�l�pp�nes and V�etnam.
• work by the Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union (ABU) to further involve the med�a �n d�saster r�sk reduct�on and the early warn�ng cha�n.
• an �n�t�at�ve by UNESCO’s Jakarta Tsunam� Informat�on Centre to comp�le a depos�tory of some of the educat�on, awareness and �nformat�on tools. The project w�ll also test the�r use �n regular educat�on and d�saster awareness programmes carr�ed out by the Government and other organ�zat�ons �n Indones�a, Ph�l�pp�nes, Tha�land and T�mor-Leste.
1.2 Assessing Regional Unmet Needs in Early Warning of Coastal and Climate Hazards
Cl�mate change �s alter�ng the face of d�saster r�sk through �ncreased weather-related r�sks and sea-level r�se. Cl�mate change �s expected to �ncrease the sever�ty and frequency of weather-related natural hazards such as storms, h�gh ra�nfall and floods.7 The Global Assessment Report8 has emphas�zed that a surface temperature �ncrease of 2°C above pre-�ndustr�al levels makes poss�ble unforeseen, non-l�near �mpacts on poverty and d�saster r�sk.
The predicted effects of climate change coupled with the Asia-Pacific region already be�ng the most d�saster prone reg�on �n the world most ser�ously affected by many types of natural disasters, including fires, floods, droughts and severe hydro-meteorolog�cal events, se�sm�c, geolog�cal, mar�t�me and ecolog�cal d�sasters, presents enormous challenges.
7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007.8 United Nations, 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and poverty in a chang�ng cl�mate. Invest today for a safer tomorrow.
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An end-to-end disaster early warning system (EWS) should be a fundamental component of all nations’ disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies, enabling governments from the nat�onal to the local levels, as well as commun�t�es themselves, to take appropr�ate act�ons to m�t�gate and reduce both the loss of l�ves and l�vel�hoods �n ant�c�pat�on of a d�saster.
It �s �mportant to emphas�ze that the l�kel�hood of the loss of l�ves and l�vel�hood from a natural disaster (the “risk”) depends not only on the hazard itself, but also on a number of other v�tal factors �nclud�ng the dens�ty of populat�on and �nfrastructure, ecosystems, as well as the vulnerability of the communities (and their livelihoods) and the potent�al of those commun�t�es to respond to the d�saster and or a d�saster warn�ng.
As such there is a fundamental need for effective and efficient disaster preparedness and more part�cularly now that there �s an �nternat�onal acceptance of the need to take �nto account the ant�c�pated severe �mpacts of cl�mate change.
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CHAPTER 2: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction
2.1 Climate change negotiations
The Bali Action Plan (BAP) was agreed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 13th Sess�on of the Conference of the Parties (COP 13), Bali in December 2007 and provided a guide to the negotiations �n Copenhagen �n December 2009. The Bal� Act�on Plan recogn�zed the �mportance of r�sk reduct�on for adaptat�on and called for r�sk management and r�sk reduct�on strateg�es, �nclud�ng r�sk shar�ng and transfer mechan�sms such as �nsurance, d�saster reduct�on strateg�es and means to address loss and damage.
The Copenhagen Conference of the Part�es to the UNFCCC ended on 18 December 2009. The Copenhagen Accord �tself however does not make any reference to d�saster r�sk reduct�on, only to adaptat�on �n a more general sense. On the other hand, the negot�at�ng texts that w�ll be the bas�s for further work dur�ng 2010 do st�ll conta�n strong references to d�saster r�sk reduct�on.
The Accord calls for �ncreased fund�ng, capac�ty and technology transfer, although the specific financing arrangements were one of the main stumbling blocks in the negotiations. In any case, a number of existing financing mechanisms (including Funds, multilateral financial institutions and bilateral development agencies) are helping to foster synergy and integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR), including funding areas such as:
• Increased capac�ty for weather and cl�mate model�ng and mon�tor�ng;• Strengthen�ng of d�saster r�sk management agenc�es and systems at
local, nat�onal and reg�onal levels;• Strengthening of EWS (including end-to-end EWS);• R�sk assessments;• Incorporat�on of development, poverty reduct�on and env�ronmental
susta�nab�l�ty �n�t�at�ves �nto DRR strateg�es.
2.2 Linking climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR)
Both cl�mate change adaptat�on, wh�ch focuses on cl�mate-related hazards, and disaster risk reduction, which focuses on all disasters (climate- and non-climate-related), need to have a clear focus on reducing people’s vulnerability to hazards they face by �mprov�ng methods to ant�c�pate, res�st, cope w�th and recover from the �mpact of the hazard.
Climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have similar aims and mutual benefits. However, to date the policy and institutional frameworks for cl�mate change adaptat�on are only weakly connected to those for d�saster r�sk reduct�on, at nat�onal, reg�onal and �nternat�onal levels.9 Closer collaborat�on between the two communities is likely to result in the following benefits:
• Reduct�on of cl�mate-related losses through more w�despread �mplementat�on of DRR measures l�nked w�th adaptat�on.
9 ISDR (2009), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
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• Increased effect�veness and susta�nab�l�ty of both adaptat�on and DRR approaches.
• Access to new partnersh�ps and fund�ng sources.• Increased chances to �ntegrate DRR �nto development, �nclud�ng
an ability to influence sectors such as livelihoods, health, and the env�ronment.
A number of entry po�nts ex�st to l�nk cl�mate change adaptat�on and d�saster r�sk reduction initiatives. Some of these include:
• Joint programming and activities (at regional and country levels), �nclud�ng jo�nt capac�ty bu�ld�ng programs;
• Enhanc�ng and bu�ld�ng on ex�st�ng legal and �nst�tut�onal structures �n countries (and avoidance of creating new structures);
• Focus�ng on the shared goal of CCA and DRR �n sav�ng l�vel�hoods, as well as sav�ng l�ves, and �nclud�ng enhanced engagement w�th vulnerable commun�t�es.
2.3 Asia–Pacificcontext
As a result of cl�mate change an �ncrease �n the magn�tude and frequency of weather-related disasters, both globally and in particular in the Asia-Pacific region �s expected to occur.
In a reg�on where 75 per cent of the world’s major natural catastrophes between 1970 and 1997 occurred (mostly in developing countries),10 there has also been a general upward trend �n the number and sever�ty of natural d�sasters due to severe hydro-meteorological events (such as cyclones and flooding).
2009 Typhoon Ketsana (South East Asia Region)
Typhoon Ketsana struck the Ph�l�pp�nes on September 26th 2009 br�ng�ng w�nds of up to 100 km/hr and dump�ng cop�ous amounts of ra�n to areas �n and around the cap�tal c�ty of Man�la. Approx�mately 80 percent of Man�la was submerged as �t experienced its worst flooding in 40 years.
In the Ph�l�pp�nes almost four m�ll�on people were affected by Typhoon Ketsana and 375,000 were forced to flee their homes. At least 295 fatalities due to flash flooding were reported. Damage to crops and �nfrastructure was est�mated to be over U.S. 100 m�ll�on dollars.
The storm moved over the Ph�l�pp�nes and rega�ned strength as �t headed across the South Ch�na Sea, �t then truck central V�et Nam on September 29th as a Category 2 typhoon with winds of 105 mph (169 km/hr). Towns and villages in central Viet Nam were flooded and 162 people were reported killed. An estimated 170,000 people were evacuated from the�r homes. Damage was �n�t�ally est�mated at U.S. 168 m�ll�on dollars �n V�et Nam.
From V�etnam Ketsana moved �nland and over to the Lao PDR and Cambod�a, �n the Lao PDR �t caused 24 fatal�t�es and 17 �n Cambod�a. In the Lao PDR the typhoon resulted in flash flooding in the upland mountain areas and severe river overflow onto land surround�ng the Mekong R�ver. The total damages to hous�ng, agr�culture and transport �s est�mated at US 58 m�ll�on dollars.11
10 UNESCAP and ADB 200011 Government of the Lao PDR Report: Ketsana typhoon in the Lao PDR: Damage ,Loss and Needs Assessment
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2008 Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar)
Cyclone Narg�s was a strong trop�cal cyclone that caused the worst natural d�saster �n the recorded h�story of Myanmar. The cyclone made landfall �n the country on 2 May 2008, caus�ng catastroph�c destruct�on and at least 138,000 fatal�t�es. There were around 55,000 people m�ss�ng. Damage has been est�mated at over US 10 b�ll�on dollars, wh�ch makes �t the most damag�ng cyclone ever recorded �n th�s area.13
Figure 3: Tracking Cyclone Nargis14
12 Source: Reliefweb13 Sources: AFP, Reuters, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)14 The background �mage �s from NASA. Track�ng data from the Nat�onal Hurr�cane Center or the Jo�nt Typhoon Warn�ng Center
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TSCHAPTER 3 Governance and Institutional Arrangements
Well developed governance and �nst�tut�onal arrangements, �nternat�onally, reg�onally, and nat�onally, form the foundat�ons for successful development and susta�nab�l�ty of sound early warn�ng systems. Clear �nd�cators of pol�t�cal commitment are the level of resources allocated and the efficiency of their use by stakeholders. Decentral�zat�on of author�ty, as well as bu�ld�ng capac�ty and devot�ng resources at prov�nc�al and local levels are means to foster part�c�pat�on. Ult�mately, the early warn�ng system funct�ons as part of the overall d�saster r�sk reduct�on system.
3.1 Coordination and Cooperation Mechanisms
Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG/IOTWS)
The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Twenty-third Assembly (21-30 June 2005) decided, by resolution XXIII-12, to create the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS) and to establish an Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG/IOTWS). It is IOC UNESCO’s mandate to coordinate all act�v�t�es, groups and NGOs and UN agenc�es �nvolved �n the ICG/IOTWS.
The Seventh Session of the ICG/IOTWS, held in Banda Aceh, Indonesia (14- 16 April 2010), reviewed progress against the commitments of the Sixth session and recogn�sed the progress towards establ�sh�ng nat�onal tsunam� warn�ng centres �n all countr�es around the Ind�an Ocean.
The Seventh session reaffirmed that:
1) The IOTWS will be a coordination network of national systems and capacities, and w�ll be part of a global network of early warn�ng systems.
2) That member states have the responsibility to issue warning within their respect�ve terr�tor�es.
The ICG/IOTWS recently underwent restructur�ng and now �ncludes three Work�ng Groups (WG1: Tsunami Risk Assessment and Reduction, WG2: Tsunami Detection, Warning and Dissemination, WG3: Tsunami Awareness and Response).
Regional, Integrated, Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES)
The Reg�onal, Integrated, Mult�-Hazard Early Warn�ng System for Afr�ca and Asia (RIMES) �s an �nternat�onal and �ntergovernmental �nst�tut�on, owned and managed by �ts Member States, for the generat�on and appl�cat�on of early warn�ng �nformat�on. RIMES evolved from the efforts of 26 countr�es �n Afr�ca and As�a, �n the aftermath of the 2004 Ind�an Ocean tsunam�, to establ�sh a reg�onal early warn�ng system, w�th�n a mult�-hazard framework, wh�ch generates and commun�cates early warn�ng �nformat�on, and bu�lds capac�ty to prepare for and respond to trans-boundary hazards. RIMES �s an �ntegral part of the IOTWS and works alongs�de the nat�onal and reg�onal watch prov�ders.
By s�gn�ng the RIMES Cooperat�on Agreement a country comm�ts to collect�vely own, manage, ma�nta�n, and fund the RIMES reg�onal early warn�ng centre and to exchange observat�on and mon�tor�ng data.
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• Fac�l�tate establ�shment and ma�ntenance of core reg�onal observat�on and mon�tor�ng networks, and to ensure data ava�lab�l�ty for early warn�ng purposes;
• Prov�de reg�onal tsunam� watches w�th�n the framework of the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC UNESCO);
• Prov�de research and development support to Nat�onal Hydrolog�cal and Meteorological Services (NHMS) for providing localised hydro-meteorolog�cal r�sk �nformat�on w�th�n the framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO);
• Enhance capac�t�es of nat�onal systems to respond to early warn�ng �nformat�on of var�ous lead t�mes at nat�onal, sub-nat�onal, local, and at-r�sk commun�ty levels w�th�n each nat�onal early warn�ng framework.
The reg�onal early warn�ng centre �tself �s located at the As�an Inst�tute of Technology (AIT) campus near Bangkok, Thailand. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) facilitated the establishment and advocacy of RIMES with US$ 4.5 million �n fund�ng support from the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness.
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee15 and WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones 16
The Typhoon Comm�ttee was establ�shed to promote and coord�nate the plann�ng and �mplementat�on of measures requ�red for m�n�m�z�ng the loss of l�fe and mater�al damage caused by typhoons �n East and Southeast As�a. The Panel on Trop�cal Cyclones �s the equ�valent organ�zat�on to the Typhoon Comm�ttee serv�ng the Ind�an Ocean.
EconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific(ESCAP)
ESCAP has been act�vely �nvolved w�th d�saster management, preparedness and risk reduction for more than five decades focusing on the development of regional cooperat�on mechan�sms. ESCAP, at �ts 64th Sess�on �n Apr�l 2008, establ�shed a new �ntergovernmental Comm�ttee on D�saster R�sk Reduct�on and programme of work on d�saster r�sk reduct�on, and mandated ESCAP to further strengthen �ts capac�ty in this area. The main objectives of this programme are to:
• Ident�fy and advocate pol�cy opt�ons and strateg�es on mult�-hazard d�saster r�sk reduct�on and m�t�gat�on;
• Strengthen reg�onal cooperat�on mechan�sms for d�saster r�sk management, �nclud�ng space and other techn�cal support systems;
• Promote mult�-hazard assessment, preparedness, early warn�ng and response to d�saster r�sk.
The programme of work �s gu�ded by the Hyogo Declarat�on and the Hyogo Framework for Act�on 2005-2015 w�th the object�ves of bu�ld�ng the res�l�ence of nat�ons and commun�t�es to d�sasters.
15 The Typhoon Committee is currently composed of 14 Members: Cambodia; China; Democratic People’s Republ�c of Korea; Hong Kong, Ch�na; Japan; Lao People’s Democrat�c Republ�c; Macao, Ch�na; Malays�a; the Ph�l�pp�nes; Republ�c of Korea.16 The Panel on Tropical Cyclones is currently composed of 8 Members: Bangladesh; India; Maldives; Myanmar; Oman; Pak�stan; Sr� Lanka; and Tha�land.
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The Reg�onal Cl�mate Change Adaptat�on Knowledge Platform for As�a focuses on shar�ng �nformat�on on cl�mate change adaptat�on and develop�ng adapt�ve capac�t�es �n As�an countr�es. Early warn�ng and cl�mate r�sk �nformat�on �s one of the areas covered. The Platform has been jo�ntly establ�shed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the Swedish Environmental Secretariat for Asia (SENSA), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)/UNEP Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific (AIT/UNEP RRC.AP), with funding support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA).
The Asia Pacific Adaptation Network aims to build climate resilience of vulnerable human systems, ecosystems and econom�es through the mob�l�zat�on of knowledge and technolog�es to support adaptat�on capac�ty bu�ld�ng, pol�cy sett�ng, plann�ng and practices. The Asia Pacific Adaptation Network is facilitated by UNEP, Institute for Global Environment Strategies (IGES), AIT/UNEP RRC.AP, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in partnership with other key actors in the region.
Regional Thematic Working Group on Environment and Disaster Risk Management (TWGEDRM)
The Working Group is a mechanism under the United Nations Asia-Pacific Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM)17, wh�ch object�ves and funct�ons �n regard to Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) include: promoting coordinated and joint action; support�ng the preparat�on, �mplementat�on and follow-up of the �nternat�onal and reg�onal agreements on env�ronment and d�saster r�sk management �n the reg�on; advocat�ng for effect�ve ma�nstream�ng of env�ronment and d�saster management �n the UN system and for reg�onal coherence. ESCAP �s co-cha�r�ng th�s Work�ng Group with UNEP and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
ASEAN18/AADMER
The ASEAN Agreement on D�saster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) is a regional legally-binding agreement that binds ASEAN Member States together to promote reg�onal cooperat�on and collaborat�on �n reduc�ng d�saster losses and �ntens�fy�ng jo�nt emergency response to d�sasters �n the ASEAN region. AADMER is also ASEAN’s affirmation of its commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) and sub-regional coherence in its implementation.
AADMER contains provisions on disaster risk identification, monitoring and early warn�ng, prevent�on and m�t�gat�on, preparedness and response, rehab�l�tat�on, technical cooperation and research, mechanisms for coordination, and simplified customs and �mm�grat�on procedures.
In support of th�s Agreement, the ASEAN Comm�ttee on D�saster Management launched a regional Work Programme covering the period of 2010-2015. In the first phase of the Work Programme, a reg�onal r�sk assessment w�ll be conducted, and w�th �t, the sett�ng up of a reg�onal system for early warn�ng and mon�tor�ng. Reg�onal
17 The RCM, cha�red by the Execut�ve Secretary of ESCAP, has 35 members, of wh�ch 27 have Bangkok-based regional offices. The RCM was established to improve coordination and cooperation at the regional level among the work programmes of the organ�zat�ons �n the Un�ted Nat�ons system and to move towards reg�onal-level system-w�de coherence and del�ver�ng as one.18 ASEAN Member States are: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Ph�l�pp�nes, S�ngapore. Tha�land and V�et Nam.
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and well-targeted and t�mely emergency response. The Work Programme also seeks to develop a reg�onal strategy for �ntegrat�ng d�saster r�sk reduct�on �nto nat�onal development plans as well as urban and commun�ty act�on plans, and to develop a tool k�t for effect�ve d�saster recovery plann�ng for ASEAN Member States.
Asian Ministerial Conferences on Disaster Risk Reduction (AMCDRR)
The Asian ministerial conferences on disaster risk reduction (AMCDRR) represent a high-level forum for Governments to reaffirm their commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Act�on and exchange pract�cal ways to �mplement effect�ve d�saster r�sk reduct�on at the nat�onal and local levels and move towards susta�nable development. The outcome document of the fourth sess�on held 26-28 October 2010, the Incheon Declarat�on, calls on countr�es to promote shar�ng of early warn�ng �nformat�on and systems through strengthen�ng ex�st�ng systems.
3.2 Legal and Policy Frameworks
Countr�es that develop pol�cy leg�slat�ve and �nst�tut�onal frameworks for d�saster risk reduction and that are able to develop and track progress through specific and measurable �nd�cators have greater capac�ty to manage r�sks and to ach�eve w�despread consensus for engagement �n, and compl�ance w�th d�saster r�sk reduct�on measures across all sectors of soc�ety.19
Nat�onal progress reports on the �mplementat�on of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2007-2009)20 �nd�cate that countr�es �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�an reg�on are mak�ng substant�al progress �n strengthen�ng the�r legal and pol�cy frameworks for d�saster r�sk reduct�on. Although good progress �s made �n enhanc�ng the �nst�tut�onal mechan�sms necessary for early warn�ng for all major hazards a strong need rema�ns to �ntegrate early warn�ng �nto broader d�saster r�sk reduct�on and development pol�c�es.
Major governance �ssues �nclude whether management of the d�saster r�sk reduct�on system �s decentral�zed, how well �t �s resourced, and how well �t �s l�nked to the commun�ty level. The l�nk between prov�nc�al, nat�onal and reg�onal levels of early warn�ng systems cont�nues to requ�re further development.
A project currently be�ng �mplemented by the Raks Tha� Foundat�on �n Ind�a, Indones�a, Mald�ves, Sr� Lanka and Tha�land plans to address some of these �ssues by strengthen�ng �nst�tut�onal l�nkages and roll out good pract�ces �n mult�-hazard community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) in close partnership with local and nat�onal government, and �n l�ne w�th nat�onal and decentral�zed capac�ty and strateg�es.
As cl�mate change �s �ncreas�ng the r�sk from weather-related hazards adaptat�on could and should re�nforce d�saster r�sk reduct�on efforts. Adaptat�on pol�c�es and �nst�tut�onal frameworks should be connected to those created to reduce d�saster r�sk, at both the nat�onal and �nternat�onal levels.
3.3 Financial Resources
A major �nd�cator for susta�nab�l�ty of early warn�ng systems �s the level of ongoing financial support from national government budgets essential for its long-term effect�veness. Early warn�ng systems �s an area where more spend�ng by
19 Hyogo Framework for Act�on 2005-2015. Bu�ld�ng the Res�l�ence of Nat�ons and Commun�t�es to D�sasters.20 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/priority1/?pid:222
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TSgovernments �s requ�red, espec�ally weather forecast�ng. Spend�ng on �mprov�ng weather forecast�ng and shar�ng data could have h�gh returns.21
Funds are cont�nuously needed to support capac�ty development, part�c�pat�on �n meet�ngs, ma�ntenance of hardware and software and databases, d�ssem�nat�on of �nformat�on to the publ�c and ongo�ng educat�onal, med�a and d�saster r�sk reduct�on programmes cover�ng var�ous hazards �nclud�ng tsunam�s. Most major donors are tend�ng to phase out fund�ng for early warn�ng systems, espec�ally for tsunam�s, after years of �ntens�ve effort; pol�t�cal w�ll to protect the reg�on needs to be ma�nta�ned.
The Copenhagen Accord calls for �ncreased fund�ng, capac�ty and technology transfer, although the specific financing arrangements were one of the stumbling blocks �n the negot�at�ons.
3.4 Priorities and recommendations
1. Prov�de support at the nat�onal level to �ntegrate early warn�ng �nto broader d�saster r�sk reduct�on and development pol�c�es.
2. Support l�nks between �nst�tut�onal arrangement at d�fferent levels of government, from the reg�onal to the nat�onal, prov�nc�al and commun�ty levels, �nclud�ng end-to-end Standard Operat�ng Procedures.
3. Promote efficiency through regional resource sharing arrangements and a mult�-hazard approach.
21 The World Bank and the United Nations (2010): Natural Hazards, UnNatural D�sasters. The Econom�cs of Effect�ve Prevent�on.
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ECHAPTER 4 Risk Knowledge
4.1 Introduction
Risk can be defined as a measure of expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, economic activity etc) due to a hazard of particular magnitude occurring in a given area over a specific time period. Risk identification and hazard maps help to mot�vate people and to pr�or�t�ze early warn�ng system needs by �llustrat�ng the l�kely sever�ty of the d�sasters at a part�cular locat�on. Assessments of r�sk requ�re systemat�c collect�on and analys�s of �nformat�on and should cons�der the dynam�c nature of hazards and vulnerab�l�t�es that ar�se from processes such as urban�zat�on, rural land-use change, env�ronmental degradat�on and cl�mate change.22 W�th a clear understand�ng of local, nat�onal and reg�onal r�sks faced �t �s poss�ble to better plan for and m�t�gate future r�sks and d�saster. As such d�saster r�sk knowledge �s a key component of all early warn�ng systems.
4.2. Organizational Arrangements
Nat�onal progress reports on the �mplementat�on of the Hyogo Framework for Act�on (2007-2009)23 indicate that although institutional commitment for identification, assessment and mon�tor�ng d�saster r�sks has been secured �n most report�ng countr�es �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�an reg�on, roles and respons�b�l�t�es of key national government agencies need to be clarified.
Several countr�es �nd�cate a need for clear mandates and standards for collect�on, analys�s and d�ssem�nat�on of data. In Indones�a efforts are underway by the government to standard�ze d�saster r�sk mapp�ng. In the Ph�l�pp�nes government agenc�es are work�ng out a system to d�ssem�nate the collected data to commun�t�es and other stakeholders.
Other ex�st�ng challenges are strengthen�ng capac�t�es of government agenc�es, academ�c and research organ�zat�ons to conduct r�sk and vulnerab�l�ty assessment of key sectors, �mprov�ng the understand�ng of the �nterdependenc�es across sectors, and assess�ng soc�o econom�c loss. L�ttle progress �s reported �n ma�nstream�ng vulnerab�l�ty and r�sk assessment �nto soc�al, econom�c, urban, env�ronmental and �nfrastructural plann�ng. Governance arrangements are needed to fac�l�tate �ntegrat�on of r�sk cons�derat�ons �nto development.
4.3 Coastal hazards in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia
4.3.1 Tsunami
The 2009 Geosc�ence Austral�a assessment “A Probab�l�st�c Tsunam� Hazard Assessment of the Ind�an Ocean Nat�ons – 2009” resulted �n two maps - a “h�gh hazard” and a “low hazard” map. The development of two maps reflects the uncerta�nty about the capac�ty of certa�n fault zones to generate a major tsunam�, �n part�cular fault zones w�th theoret�cal potent�al to generate tsunam�s, but for wh�ch no h�stor�cal data ex�sts. It was felt that a s�ngle map could m�slead dec�s�on makers about the uncerta�nt�es �nvolved �n develop�ng a tsunam� r�sk map for the reg�on.
22 ISDR (2006) Third International Conference on Early Warning, Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checkl�st.23 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/priority2/?pid:224&pil:1
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Figure 4: Probabilistic tsunami hazard map – low hazard map24. The information shows the maximum tsunami amplitude with a 1 in 2000 year chance of being exceeded.
Figure 5: Probabilistic tsunami hazard map – high hazard map25. The information shows the maximum tsunami amplitude with a 1 in 2000 year chance of being exceeded.
The Geosc�ence Austral�a report concludes that the Andaman-Sumatra segments of the Sunda Arc are clearly the most �mportant zones to the bulk of the countr�es �n the Ind�an Ocean for hazard at the 2000 year return per�od. Shorel�nes near or perpendicular to this zone have the overall highest tsunami hazard (especially Indones�a, but also countr�es l�ke Ind�a, Mald�ves, Sr� Lanka and Tha�land, wh�ch were most affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami). The hazard in countries in the northwest Indian Ocean (e.g., Iran, Pakistan) is dominated by the Makran subduct�on zone.26
A project supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness and �mplemented by IOC UNESCO �s address�ng a knowledge gap
24 Geoscience Australia: Professional Opinion 2009/2011: A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Ind�an Ocean Nat�ons25 Geoscience Australia: Professional Opinion 2009/2011: A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Ind�an Ocean Nat�ons26 Geoscience Australia: Professional Opinion 2009/2011: A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Ind�an Ocean Nat�ons
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Eabout tsunam� r�sk �n countr�es �n the Makran subduct�on zone. Results are expected by the end of 2011 and w�ll �ncrease the accuracy of tsunam� model�ng and r�sk assessment �n Iran and Pak�stan, as well as other countr�es �n the western Ind�an Ocean.
4.3.2 Floods
Flood�ng �s the one of the most frequent natural hazards, occurr�ng �n almost every country (including landlocked countries) in the region. At present there is no systematic global detection of flood events as there is for cyclones and earthquakes. Informat�on from nat�onal d�saster loss databases �nd�cates that w�despread, smaller-scale disasters like flooding have a significant impact on lives and livelihoods that is insufficiently taken into account in planning and allocating resources for disaster r�sk reduct�on measures.
The most common type of flooding is river bursts caused by heavy rain. Other flooding events include storm surges—coastal flooding associated with atmospheric low pressure systems dr�v�ng ocean water �nland—and Glac�al Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF)—when a terminal or lateral moraine fails, releasing glacial melt in a sudden, v�olent burst.
Every year, more than 48 million people are affected by floods in rural areas in the Asia-Pacific countries alone, 40% of whom are in Bangladesh and 32% in India. The future risk associated with flooding is expected to increase significantly in all reg�ons w�th h�gh populat�on dens�ty.
As �s �nd�cated by the follow�ng map27, flooding is both a coastal hazard and an �nland hazard, although delta reg�ons are h�ghly vulnerable to coastal �mpacts. The �mpact of cl�mate change on both sea level and ra�nfall �s expected to �ncrease both the occurrence and the severity of both floods and droughts in the region.
Figure 6: Hazard classification for river floods in Asia-Pacific.
27 UN OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok (2009a) Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural- and Conflict-Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific, April 2009
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Tropical cyclones (normally called “typhoons” in Pacific Ocean regions of South-east Asia) are powerful hydro-meteorological hazards. On average, over 83 million people are affected globally by between 50 to 60 events each year. Trop�cal cyclones are unevenly spread around the globe as their development depends on specific cl�mat�c and ocean�c cond�t�ons.
H�stor�cally trop�cal cyclones have often had catastroph�c consequences, such as the 1991 Bangladesh d�saster k�ll�ng more than 130,000 people, and the more recent Cyclone Narg�s that caused a s�m�lar number of fatal�t�es �n Myanmar �n May 2008.
Storm surges are a high flood of coastal water moving in land because of wind and low pressure, and most commonly assoc�ated w�th trop�cal cyclones/typhoons. Storm surges are the most common type of serious coastal flooding events. A storm surge �s d�fferent from a t�dal surge, wh�ch �s a v�olent surge of water caused exclus�vely by the t�dal sh�ft �n sea level. Typ�cal storm surge he�ghts vary w�th the cyclone/typhoon’s �ntens�ty, but they can range from less than one to more than five metres.
4.4. Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment
Coastl�nes d�ffer �n the�r degrees of exposure to the var�ous hazards. Thus, some countr�es, and even some coastal commun�t�es w�th�n countr�es, are more prone to tsunamis, floods and other hazards than others. The risk of these communities can be analyzed by assess�ng the probab�l�ty of the hazards occurr�ng and the vulnerab�l�ty of the commun�ty that would be exposed to the hazard. R�sk assessment forms an �mportant �nput �n d�saster management, �n the des�gn of development plans, and �n emergency response plann�ng.
S�nce the 2004 Ind�an Ocean tsunam�, a number of tsunam� r�sk assessments have been completed or are underway. A number of recent key stud�es to ass�st countr�es in the region to better prioritize the risks they face with regard to tsunami include:
• “A Probab�l�st�c Tsunam� Hazard Assessment of the Ind�an Ocean Nat�ons” by Geosc�ence Austral�a. The assessment allows Ind�an Ocean nat�ons to pr�or�t�ze wh�ch coastl�nes have the h�ghest tsunam� hazard.
• “Tsunam� R�sk Assessment and M�t�gat�on for the Ind�an Ocean” Gu�del�nes completed �n collaborat�on between ICG/IOTWS and UNDP.28 The Gu�del�nes descr�be procedures for assess�ng and �mprov�ng awareness of the tsunam� hazard and for assess�ng coastal communities’ vulnerabilities and deficiencies in preparedness.
It �s now recogn�zed that these tsunam� r�sk assessments should be broadened to also �nclude other coastal hazards. In 2009, IOC UNESCO launched the Hazard Awareness and Risk Mitigation in Integrated Coastal Area Management (ICAM) gu�del�nes to ass�st pol�cy makers and managers �n the reduct�on of the r�sks to coastal commun�t�es, the�r �nfrastructure and serv�ce-prov�d�ng ecosystems from tsunam�s and other coastal hazards. L�m�ted �nformat�on ex�sts on mult�-hazard r�sk assessments and r�sk maps.
Even though r�sk assessments are expand�ng coverage �s st�ll low. The analys�s and �nterpretat�on of ex�st�ng hazard data needs �mprovement and new or �mproved data products need to be provided. Various multi-hazard maps for the Asia-Pacific reg�on have now been produced to h�ghl�ght the uncerta�nty regard�ng the r�sk of
28 IOC Manuals and Gu�del�ne No.52
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Emajor hazards from d�fferent zones. Even at the broadest level, the h�gh-r�sk zones and the overall hazard frequency �n d�fferent parts of the reg�on are st�ll not well known and the knowledge of r�sk from changes �n cl�mate wh�ch results �n dr�v�ng degradat�on of ecosystem �s st�ll l�m�ted and very much unmapped. Informat�on on soc�al, econom�c and env�ronmental factors that �ncrease vulnerab�l�ty �s �nadequate. The vulnerab�l�ty of groups who lack effect�ve connect�ons to the early warn�ng systems such as rural and urban poor, ethn�c m�nor�t�es, hand�capped persons, elderly, ch�ldren, and fore�gners such as refugees, m�grant workers and tour�sts requ�res more analys�s and �nclus�on of those groups �n d�scuss�ons of the�r vulnerab�l�ty.
To address some of these issues UNDP Asia-Pacific Regional Centre, supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness �s �mplement�ng a project to �mprove capac�ty of pract�t�oners �n tsunam�-affected countr�es that w�ll enable them to work together reg�onally, nat�onally and locally �n conduct�ng and us�ng tsunam� r�sk assessment stud�es to �mprove preparedness, publ�c awareness, early warn�ng and response of tsunam�s and other coastal hazards.
4.5. Information Storage and Accessibility
At the core of any r�sk knowledge efforts �s the need for rel�able and eas�ly access�ble data on hazards, vulnerab�l�t�es and r�sks. D�saster loss databases prov�des for systemat�c collect�on of relevant data, and the�r val�dat�on and shar�ng.
The Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) maintains a global database29 of natural d�sasters that prov�des useful �nformat�on and analyses on var�ous parameters of past d�saster events. Mun�chh Re also ma�nta�ns a database ‘NatCatSERVICE’30 for natural catastrophes. The database allows analys�s of reg�onal and global hazards as well as trends.
UNDP has supported the establ�shment of nat�onal d�saster loss databases �n Ind�a, Indones�a, Mald�ves, Sr� Lanka, and Tha�land. Other countr�es �n the reg�on have established similar databases or are in the process of doing so (e.g., Iran Lao PDR, and Viet Nam).
Some �mportant gu�del�nes and lessons for establ�sh�ng and �nst�tut�onal�z�ng disaster loss databases include:31
• D�saster loss databases must be developed as an �ntegral part of d�saster r�sk reduct�on �n�t�at�ves. The database �s a central tool for governments to better understand the d�sasters and threats �n order to effect�vely m�t�gate and prepare for them.
• The process of d�saster loss database �mplementat�on needs to be part�c�patory and �nclus�ve, �nvolv�ng governments and other partners to promote to promote government ownersh�p of the system and �ts �nst�tut�onal�zat�on.
• Analys�s must be profess�onal, clear, understandable and relevant to the target aud�ence. It should compr�se quant�tat�ve and qual�tat�ve �nformat�on that �s user-fr�endly and supports the dec�s�on-mak�ng process.
29 http://www.em-dat.net30 http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/natcatservice/default.apx31 UNDP (2009) Risk Knowledge Fundamentals: Guidelines and Lessons for Establishing and Inst�tut�onal�z�ng D�saster Loss Databases.
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analysis include difficulties in coordination, sharing information and adopting common data standards and methodolog�es, and a lack of resources to acqu�re and ma�nta�n equ�pment and the general lack of human techn�cal capac�t�es. Mak�ng information of hazards and risks easily accessible (such as maps of flood plains) is an effect�ve measure allow�ng populat�ons to make �nformed dec�s�ons. 33
4.6 Priorities and Recommendations
1. Strengthen the capac�t�es of nat�onal governments and other organ�zat�ons to conduct mult�-hazard r�sk and vulnerab�l�ty assessments through development and appl�cat�on of standard�zed mult�-hazard r�sk mapp�ng and r�sk assessment gu�del�nes.
2. Prov�de support at the nat�onal level to �ntegrate r�sk cons�derat�ons �nto development.
3. Promote capac�ty development for standard�zed �nformat�on storage, data access�b�l�ty and the�r use for d�saster r�sk reduct�on.
32 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/priority2/?pid:224&pil:133 The World Bank and the United Nations (2010): Natural Hazards, UnNatural D�sasters. The Econom�cs of Effect�ve Prevent�on.
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CHAPTER 5 Monitoring and Warning Service
5.1 Introduction
Mon�tor�ng and warn�ng serv�ces form a central component of an early warn�ng system. There must be a sound scientific basis for predicting and forecasting hazards and a rel�able forecast�ng and warn�ng system that operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. The cont�nuous mon�tor�ng of hazard parameters and precursors �s essent�al to generate accurate warn�ngs �n a t�mely fash�on. Warn�ng serv�ces for different hazards should be coordinated where possible to gain the benefit of shared �nst�tut�onal, procedural and commun�cat�on networks.34
5.2 Institutional Mechanisms
Observ�ng, mon�tor�ng, detect�ng, and forecast�ng of hazards are resource-�ntens�ve and s�nce hazards almost never affect only one country, �nternat�onal and reg�onal cooperat�on have trad�t�onally been rel�ed upon for nat�onal capac�ty development.
Nat�onal capac�t�es for detect�ng and forecast�ng hazards could be further �mproved through enhanced �nter-agency cooperat�on and collaborat�on, w�th�n and across countr�es. Results from surveys conducted by the World Metrolog�cal Organ�zat�on (WMO)35 and the ISDR Platform for Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW)36 confirm the need for development of standards not only at the nat�onal level, but also w�th ne�ghbour�ng countr�es and at the reg�onal level.
Early warn�ng systems for meteorolog�cal, hydrolog�cal and cl�mate-related hazards such as severe storms, floods, tropical cyclones and storm surges, are enabled through a World Metrological Organization (WMO) coordinated international network operated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS).
Th�s operat�onal network �ncludes WMO Integrated Global Observ�ng Network (WIGOS), WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS), and WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) comprised of three world meteorological centres, 40 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs), to prov�de at-r�sk countr�es w�th hazard analys�s, forecasts, bullet�ns and watches.37 S�x designated RSMCs together with six Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) having regional responsibility, provide advisories and bulletins with up-to-date first level bas�c meteorolog�cal �nformat�on on all trop�cal cyclones, hurr�canes, typhoons everywhere in the world (see map below). This system is being further strengthened and expanded to support other hazards as well.
34 ISDR (2006) Third International Conference on Early Warning, Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checkl�st.35 WMO (2007) Survey of National Capacities for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate-Related Forecasting and Warning Systems. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html36 ISDR PPEW - UNU EHS (2008) Joint Early Warning Questionnaire37 WMO (2009) Thematic Progress Review Sub-component on Early Warning Systems. 2009 Global Assessment Report on D�saster R�sk Reduct�on.
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Figure 7: Designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs).
For tsunam� reg�onal watch adv�sor�es, ICG/IOTWS Member States have dec�ded that having several Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWPs) is the preferred mode of operat�on rather than a s�ngle prov�der. Essent�ally, the RTWPs w�ll support an �nteroperable tsunam� watch system for the Ind�an Ocean that a�ms to emulate the interim service provided by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) by mid 2011, with enhanced capability to help adv�se those countr�es most at threat.38
5.3 Monitoring and Observing Systems
Global Observing System (GOS)
The Global Observing System (GOS) provides from the Earth and from outer space observat�ons of the state of the atmosphere and ocean surface for the preparat�on of weather analyses, forecasts, adv�sor�es and warn�ngs, for cl�mate mon�tor�ng and env�ronmental act�v�t�es carr�ed out under programmes of WMO and of other relevant �nternat�onal organ�zat�ons. It �s operated by Nat�onal Meteorolog�cal Serv�ces, nat�onal or �nternat�onal satell�te agenc�es, and �nvolves several consort�a dealing with specific observing systems or specific geographic regions. It makes substant�al contr�but�on to enabl�ng the del�very of �ncreas�ngly accurate and rel�able warn�ngs of severe events related to weather, water, cl�mate and the related natural env�ronment throughout the world.39
Although the GOS has been, and st�ll �s, the foundat�on on wh�ch all meteorolog�sts depend, there has been gradual but steady eros�on of the observ�ng networks dur�ng the past few years lead�ng to a need for a redes�gn of the system.
Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is a permanent global system for observat�ons, model�ng and analys�s of mar�ne and ocean var�ables to support operat�onal ocean serv�ces worldw�de. GOOS prov�des accurate descr�pt�ons of the present state of the oceans, �nclud�ng l�v�ng resources; cont�nuous forecasts of the future cond�t�ons of the sea for as far ahead as poss�ble, and the bas�s for forecasts of cl�mate change.
38 IOC UNESCO (2008) Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS), Implementation Plan for Reg�onal Tsunam� Watch Prov�ders, IOC Informat�on Ser�es No.8139 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/GOS-purpose.html
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Global Seismographic Network (GSN)
The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) is a 150+ station, globally distributed, state-of-the-art d�g�tal se�sm�c network prov�d�ng free, realt�me, open access data.
GSN instrumentation is capable of measuring and recording with high fidelity all se�sm�c v�brat�ons from h�gh-frequency, strong ground mot�ons near an earthquake to the slowest global Earth osc�llat�ons exc�ted by great earthquakes. The pr�mary focus �n creat�ng the GSN has been se�smology, but the �nfrastructure �s �nherently mult�-use and can be extended to other d�sc�pl�nes. Several GSN stat�ons currently �ncorporate m�crobarographs, GPS, Geomag, and Meteorolog�cal packages.
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO)
The Comprehens�ve Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organ�zat�on has now entered �nto formal tsunam� warn�ng agreements and arrangements w�th several of �ts Member States (e.g. Japan, Australia, the Philippines, the United States, Indonesia and Thailand).
The CTBTO �s currently contr�but�ng data from almost 40 of �ts mon�tor�ng stat�ons to reg�onal and nat�onal tsunam� warn�ng centres �n the countr�es ment�oned above as well as Malays�a. The data can enhance the ab�l�ty of the centres to �dent�fy potent�ally tsunam�-generat�ng earthquakes and prov�de vulnerable commun�t�es w�th faster warn�ngs so that they can move out of the affected areas.
Figure 8: Core Seismic Stations for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS)40
40 Map of se�sm�c stat�ons �s prov�ded by IOC UNESCO.
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mon�tor�ng and detect�ng earthquakes that can tr�gger tsunam�s. Two categor�es of se�sm�c stat�ons ex�st, some form part of the core reg�onal network coord�nated by IOC UNESCO, whereas others are add�t�onal stat�ons for �mproved coverage pr�mar�ly at the nat�onal level. In add�t�on to the core network of the Ind�an Ocean, national seismic networks are necessary to address specific national requirements and constra�nts �n the reg�onal network wh�ch �s �ntegrated �nto the global network.41
Most nat�onal se�sm�c networks allow free access to the�r data and those currently not shar�ng have been asked to recons�der. Although �t �s cons�dered to be cr�t�cal that se�sm�c waveform data �s shared �n real-t�me, not all se�sm�c stat�ons are currently ava�lable �n real-t�me.
Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
Sea level data �s used to observe the potent�al occurrence of many coastal hazards such as storm surges, cyclones/typhoons, landsl�des, coastal eros�on, and tsunam�s.
The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the ausp�ces of the Jo�nt Techn�cal Comm�ss�on for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC).
The main component of GLOSS is the ‘Global Core Network’ (GCN) of 290 sea level stat�ons around the world for long-term cl�mate change and oceanograph�c sea level mon�tor�ng. There �s a relat�vely small number of sea level stat�ons to cover the Ind�an Ocean and South Ch�na Sea reg�on. Th�s �s due to fund�ng pr�or�t�es and/or technical difficulties in upgrading and sustaining some of the stations. A major challenge �s to ma�nta�n and broaden the user base for these observ�ng networks. The ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness has supported the �nstallat�on of four sea level stat�ons �n Ph�l�pp�nes and V�et Nam.
Figure 9: Core Sea Level Network of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS)42
41 IOC UNESCO (2006) Third Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunam� Warn�ng and M�t�gat�on System, Bal�, Indones�a.42 Map of sea level stat�ons �s prov�ded by IOC UNESCO
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The use of global and atmospher�c observat�ons from certa�n �nstruments can be appl�ed to a number of hazards. For �nstance, earthquake �nformat�on �s one of the pr�mary sources of �nformat�on for tsunam� warn�ng, and �nformat�on from sea level sensors can be used to mon�tor tsunam�s, storm surges, t�des, as well as sea level r�se caused by cl�mate change. The process of address�ng gaps �n these �nstrumentat�on networks �s therefore best addressed �n partnersh�p w�th the d�fferent user commun�t�es. RIMES has �nd�cated �t w�ll fac�l�tate resource mob�l�zat�on, acqu�s�t�on, and �nstallat�on of observ�ng and mon�tor�ng stat�ons to address ex�st�ng gaps. Furthermore �t plans to develop a data shar�ng mechan�sm for the reg�on.
5.4 Forecasting and Warning Systems
The lead t�me and accuracy related to forecast�ng of hazards such as trop�cal cyclones, tornadoes, and floods (including flash floods) has more than doubled over the last ten years. However, these capac�t�es rema�n under-developed or nonex�stent �n many develop�ng and least developed countr�es.
In terms of forecast�ng and warn�ng systems, several models have been developed to forecast the �nc�dence of hazards and to bu�ld scenar�os regard�ng the future global cl�mate. Wh�le advances �n technology are progress�ng qu�ckly, the access, costs and technology often assoc�ated w�th these advanced systems result �n poorer countr�es be�ng unable to �mplement or use the systems and data. Even modest �ncreases �n spend�ng and greater shar�ng of data between countr�es, can have enormous benefits. Several countries, including some least developed countries have found qu�ck ga�ns from such spend�ng.43
In many countries, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) are among the few author�tat�ve agenc�es operat�ng on a 24/7 bas�s and have been mandated to �ssue warn�ngs for both hydro meteorolog�cal and �n some cases for geolog�cal hazards. However, only few countr�es have �n place an effect�ve system that would ensure appropr�ate ut�l�zat�on of the warn�ng to ass�st emergency response and preparedness at the commun�ty level. 44
RIMES ass�sts �n bu�ld�ng the capac�ty of NMHS w�th regard to any of the following:
• Capac�ty �n the generat�on and appl�cat�on of weather forecast products;
• Technology development and transfer, capac�ty bu�ld�ng �n, and appl�cat�on of med�um-range forecast products;
• Technology development and transfer, capac�ty bu�ld�ng �n, and appl�cat�on of extended-range forecast products;
• Downscal�ng, capac�ty bu�ld�ng �n, and appl�cat�on of seasonal forecast products;
• Analys�s of observable trends, capac�ty bu�ld�ng �n, and appl�cat�on of cl�mate change �nformat�on products, us�ng analys�s techn�ques w�th low and moderate resource requ�rements.
43 The World Bank and the United Nations (2010): Natural Hazards, UnNatural D�sasters. The Econom�cs of Effect�ve Prevent�on.44 WMO (2009) Thematic Progress Review Sub-component on Early Warning Systems. 2009 Global Assessment Report on D�saster R�sk Reduct�on.
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1. Promote long-term financial and in-kind support to ensure sustainability of se�sm�c and sea level �nstrumentat�on networks and the�r ma�ntenance.
2. Promote the use of the network of sea level and se�sm�c stat�ons for mult�-hazard purposes to max�m�ze the l�kel�hood of ongo�ng ma�ntenance and the cont�nued funct�on�ng of the network.
3. Conduct a network-w�de effect�veness rev�ew to analyze geograph�c coverage.
4. Promote nat�onal support for real-t�me, t�mely, free and open access to data, analys�s, and other �nformat�on products for warn�ng purposes.
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SCHAPTER 6Communication and Dissemination of Warnings
6.1 Introduction
The purpose of d�ssem�nat�on and commun�cat�ons systems �s to ensure that people and commun�t�es are warned �n advance of �mpend�ng tsunam� and earthquake events. Warn�ngs must reach those at r�sk and conta�n clear messages w�th s�mple useful �nformat�on that w�ll enable the appropr�ate responses to save l�ves and l�vel�hoods. Reg�onal, nat�onal and commun�ty level commun�cat�on systems must be pre-identified with formal confirmation regarding authorities who will issue the messages. The use of mult�ple commun�cat�on channels �s �mportant to ensure that as many people as poss�ble are warned, to avo�d fa�lure of any one channel and to re�nforce the warn�ng message. The systems should fac�l�tate nat�onal and reg�onal coord�nat�on and �nformat�on exchange.45
The post-exerc�se evaluat�on undertaken by the IOC Secretar�at follow�ng the 2009 Indian Ocean Wave (IOWave) exercise46 �nd�cated some pos�t�ve changes �n regard to d�ssem�nat�on and commun�cat�ons but there cont�nues to be a clear need to focus on strengthen�ng systems at the downstream level.
6.2 Organizational and Decision Making Processes
A major challenge from an institutional perspective is to clearly define the roles and responsibilities of various government (including the crucial role of local provincial government) entities involved in disseminating a warning message. In most countr�es, a techn�cal or meteorolog�cal agency �s respons�ble for detect�ng tsunam�s, cyclones/typhoons and other related hazards, whereas an emergency response or disaster management agency (often associated with the Ministry of Home Affairs) �s respons�ble for d�ssem�nat�ng the message to affected populat�ons/areas and coord�nat�ng the emergency response, together w�th the Pol�ce, Army, med�cal serv�ces, etc. Effect�ve coord�nat�on between techn�cal/meteorolog�cal and d�saster response ent�t�es �s perhaps the greatest challenge �n many countr�es.
Significant progress has been made at both the regional and national levels in recent years to better enable clear structures and appoint and confirm roles and responsibilities. Clear systems and structures defining roles and responsibilities, comb�ned w�th appropr�ate resourc�ng of staff and tra�n�ng are requ�red to complete and enable the �nst�tut�ons to �mplement early warn�ng systems and d�ssem�nate warn�ngs and ensure responses to those warn�ngs are �mplemented.
Standard operating procedures (SOPs) play a central role in ensuring communication works between all stakeholders and that warn�ng messages are rece�ved, understood and that d�saster m�t�gat�on act�v�t�es are �mplemented. Several �n�t�at�ves have addressed this need for greater clarification of roles including some projects supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness on develop�ng SOPs. The tra�n�ng mater�als developed dur�ng the course of one
45 ISDR (2006) Third International Conference on Early Warning, Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checkl�st.46 IOC UNESCO (2010) Post-Exercise Evaluation Compilation of IOWave 09: Detailed Evaluation Forms F�nd�ngs, Seventh Sess�on of the Intergovernmental Coord�nat�on Group for the Ind�an Ocean Tsunam� Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS-VII).
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manual. Th�s manual should be ava�lable at the end of 2010.
The 2009 Indian Ocean Wave (IOWave) provided an opportunity for Indian Ocean countr�es to test the�r operat�onal l�nes of commun�cat�ons, rev�ew the�r tsunam� warn�ng and emergency response standard operat�ng procedures, and to promote emergency preparedness. Results were encourag�ng but the development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that link the regional, national, provincial and commun�ty levels needs to be strengthened.
Regular exerc�ses are �mportant for ma�nta�n�ng staff read�ness for the real events. Th�s �s espec�ally true for tsunam�s, wh�ch are �nfrequent but requ�re rap�d response when they occur. Continual testing of systems (and end-to-end early warning drills) provides essential feedback and greater efficiency in the working of the system as a result of lessons that are learnt from the dr�lls.
6.3 Effective Communication Systems and Equipment
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Telecommunications System (GTS) is the backbone system for global exchange of data and information in support of mult�-hazard, mult�purpose early warn�ng systems, �nclud�ng all meteorolog�cal and related data; weather, water and cl�mate analyses and forecasts; tsunam� related �nformat�on and warn�ngs, and se�sm�c parametr�c data. It �s a ded�cated network of surface-based and satell�te-based telecommun�cat�on l�nks and centres operated by countr�es 24 hours a day, seven days a week all year round. It �nterconnects all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) for round-clock reliable and near-real-t�me collect�on and d�str�but�on of all meteorolog�cal and related data, forecasts and alerts.
Based on data and �nformat�on rece�ved v�a GTS early warn�ng messages are d�ssem�nated by the nat�onal dec�s�on-makers to commun�t�es at r�sk v�a numerous means of public notifications and instructions including public radio broadcasts, TV announcements, public announcement systems, cell broadcast, SMS (cell), public call centre, webs�te, telephone, s�rens, and door to door announcements.47 Other alert�ng methods �nclude the use of fax, loudspeakers, churches, mosques, and trad�t�onal s�gnals l�ke h�tt�ng bamboo or drums.
Electron�c commun�cat�ons systems are subject to power outages and fa�lure or overload�ng, so �ndependent alternat�ves such as manual s�rens and loudspeakers are �mportant. A s�ngle method of commun�cat�on w�ll not reach all the people at r�sk, so a comb�nat�on of alert�ng methods and channels �s recommended. All commun�cat�on channels to wh�ch d�fferent segments of the populat�on have access should be identified especially those that people monitor routinely and those that can reach people rap�dly dur�ng emergenc�es.
Warn�ngs should reach the people that w�ll be affected by the d�saster, as soon as poss�ble, �n order to start the ant�c�pated response and reduce the �mpact of the oncoming disaster. Some events such as (near-source) tsunamis can reach a commun�ty w�th�n 10 m�nutes of the earthquake, others l�ke d�stant-source tsunam�s, storm surges or w�nd-forced waves, could take hours to reach shore. Based on r�sk assessments appropr�ate �nfrastructure and commun�cat�on systems must be �n place to deal w�th the r�sks the commun�ty faces.
47 IOC UNESCO (2010) Post-Exercise Evaluation Compilation of IOWave 09: Detailed Evaluation Forms F�nd�ngs, Seventh Sess�on of the Intergovernmental Coord�nat�on Group for the Ind�an Ocean Tsunam� Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS-VII).
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SDuring the Indian Ocean Wave exercise (IOWave) in 2009 the elapsed time until the public would be notified and instructed was assessed.48
Activity Elapsed TimeMak�ng a dec�s�on on publ�c warn�ng (from time of receipt of warning)
Part�c�pants adv�sed elapsed t�mes rang�ng from 2 m�nutes to 60 m�nutes
Formulat�on/comp�lat�on of publ�c notification (from time of decision)
Part�c�pants adv�sed elapsed t�mes rang�ng from 1 m�nute to 60 m�nutes
Activation of public notification systems (from time of notification formulated)
Part�c�pants adv�sed elapsed t�mes rang�ng from 1 m�nute to 60 m�nutes
Countr�es near to a tsunam� source or hav�ng a strong early warn�ng capab�l�ty reported the elapsed t�me as less than 15 m�nutes. Wh�le countr�es categor�zed as having a far-field tsunami threat reported a longer elapsed time (30 minutes to 2 hours).
Wh�le much progress has been made at global, reg�onal and nat�onal levels, reach�ng the commun�t�es and people at r�sk rema�ns a challenge, part�cularly �n As�a because of �ts huge populat�on, strong d�spar�t�es �n wealth, culture and l�v�ng cond�t�ons, and the remoteness of many commun�t�es.
6.4 Disseminating Warning Messages
“No matter how good the technology or how accurate the forecast and warn�ngs, �f the �nformat�on doesn’t reach people �n danger �n a t�mely and understandable manner, the warning system itself will fail.” (UN ISDR Director, Salvano Bricero).
Creat�ng effect�ve warn�ng messages and d�ssem�nat�ng can be an extremely challeng�ng task. The appropr�ate act�ons to take �n response to tsunam� and other coastal hazards can be diverse. In response to a flood or tsunami, one may need to evacuate wh�le �n response to a typhoon or hurr�cane one m�ght need to shelter �n place.
Warn�ng messages should get people’s attent�on, mot�vate them to take act�on and provide sufficient guidance in order to get them out of harm’s way in time. Warning messages should not evoke cur�os�ty or pan�cky behav�or and rumor control act�on should be taken. The warn�ng sources should be cred�ble, author�tat�ve and rel�able. A clear and phased formulat�on of warn�ng messages should help to create publ�c trust that warn�ngs are well founded.
A part�cular problem �s the need for �nterpretat�on of techn�cal �nformat�on to the publ�c, otherw�se a warn�ng may cause unnecessary pan�c or the sever�ty of an �mpend�ng hazard m�ght not be understood. A warn�ng should be followed by subsequent �nformat�on and an all clear s�gnal g�ven when the threat of d�saster has passed. Only �n a few countr�es systems are �n place to ver�fy that warn�ngs have reached and are understood by the �ntended rec�p�ents.
Med�a and espec�ally broadcasters play a cruc�al role �n d�ssem�nat�ng warn�ng information to the public. A project currently underway by the Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union (ABU) Early Warning Media Initiative focuses on the development of aud�o/v�sual programm�ng to create understandable warn�ngs for those at r�sk, wh�le address�ng cr�t�cal �ssues, such as whether people understand the warn�ngs and �f they conta�n relevant and useful �nformat�on. W�th support
48 IOC UNESCO (2010) Post-Exercise Evaluation Compilation of IOWave 09: Detailed Evaluation Forms F�nd�ngs, Seventh Sess�on of the Intergovernmental Coord�nat�on Group for the Ind�an Ocean Tsunam� Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS-VII).
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project is being implemented in six pilot countries (Cambodia, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam) and results should be available at the end of 2011.
6.5 Priorities and recommendations:
1. Strengthen end-to-end d�ssem�nat�on and response to warn�ngs through the development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that cover a range of hazards and l�nk the reg�onal, nat�onal, prov�nc�al and commun�ty levels.
2. Cont�nue programmes to strengthen channels of commun�cat�on for warn�ng messages from the nat�onal to local levels. Includ�ng pol�cy support to strengthen�ng of commun�cat�ons networkd, where feas�ble.
3. Improve the effect�veness of warn�ng messages, e.g. through regular user feedback, by �nvolv�ng other stakeholders such as the med�a �n the�r development.
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7.1 Introduction
Response capab�l�ty �s an except�onally broad area and numerous actors are �nvolved. To g�ve full cred�t to the complex�t�es of the response systems �s beyond the scope of th�s study. Further, effect�ve response �s pred�cated upon the plann�ng and strateg�c �nvolvement of many stakeholders and experts, �n areas �nclud�ng but not l�m�ted to cl�mate change, natural resource management, gender, ch�ld protect�on, poverty reduct�on, �nfrastructure plann�ng, m�l�tary, pol�ce, and emergency and health serv�ces.
It �s essent�al that commun�t�es understand the�r r�sks; respect the warn�ng serv�ce and know how to react. Educat�on and preparedness programmes play a key role. It �s also essent�al that d�saster management plans are �n place, well pract�ced and tested. The commun�ty should be well �nformed on the opt�ons for safe behav�our, ava�lable escape routes, and how best to avo�d damage and loss to property.49
The costs assoc�ated w�th bu�ld�ng response capab�l�ty are huge and the pol�t�cal will to put in place such capability is another important factor in the Asia and Pacific reg�on where the populat�on most exposed to the threat of d�sasters are the poorest and the most vulnerable.
Th�s therefore creates many challenges �n the �mplementat�on of an end- to-end EWS and espec�ally when one focuses on the last m�le. Nat�onal fund�ng pr�or�t�zat�on, land ownersh�p �ssues and other governance and capac�ty �ssues prov�de major challenges for an effect�ve response capab�l�ty for those l�v�ng �n the “last m�le”.
The response capab�l�ty of a nat�on or commun�ty �s undoubtedly dependent on the qual�ty of plann�ng and capac�ty bu�ld�ng that has taken place before the event, �nclud�ng all measures d�scussed �n prev�ous chapters, such as putt�ng enabl�ng pol�c�es and plans �n place, strengthen�ng the cred�b�l�ty of reg�onal and nat�onal �nst�tut�ons, develop�ng hazard maps and models, mon�tor�ng of se�sm�c�ty and sea level, analyzing and building scientific and community capacity, and communicating �nformat�on on hazards to the publ�c. Response act�v�t�es should also feed back �nto the longer term strategy through shar�ng of lessons.
7.2 Reaction to Warnings
Research on publ�c response to warn�ngs shows that even �n areas where publ�c alert�ng systems are �n place, people m�ght look for add�t�onal �nformat�on from other sources before they take act�on.50 As d�scussed �n chapter 6 nat�onal and local telev�s�on and rad�o stat�ons can play a major role �n d�ssem�nat�ng warn�ng messages to the publ�c and prov�de a �nterpretat�on of the techn�cal �nformat�on.
A recent study on the react�ons to the 30 September 2009 earthquake �n Padang showed that half of the people interviewed in the survey (200 individuals) evacuated low-ly�ng coastal areas �n relat�vely short t�me as a react�on to the strong earthquake (15 min after the tremor, 83% of them had left). However, in the absence of other
49 ISDR (2006) Third International Conference on Early Warning, Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checkl�st.50 H, Spahn et al. (2010) Experiences from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia; challenges, lessons and the way ahead. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sc�ences.
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see whether the seawater was retreat�ng.51
Evacuat�on after the earthquake �n Padang on 30 September 2010 and �n response to warn�ngs for Typhoon Ketsana �n September 2009 �n V�et Nam showed that many people d�d not �mmed�ately evacuate due to several reasons, �nclud�ng protect�ng the�r phys�cal and econom�c assets, and meet�ng w�th the�r fam�ly before leav�ng the hazard area.52
Publ�c awareness campa�gns and educat�on should strengthen the understand�ng of how the early warn�ng system works, what the correct response �s to the warn�ngs, but also make clear the l�m�tat�ons of the system w�th regard to the accuracy of �n�t�al warn�ngs.
Publ�c trust �n and cred�b�l�ty of the warn�ng system needs to be ma�nta�ned by further �mprov�ng accuracy of warn�ng serv�ces and forecasts to ensure a proper react�on to warn�ngs �n the future.
Dur�ng the seventh Sess�on of the ICG/IOTWS, 14-16 Apr�l 2010, Bandah Aceh, Indones�a, Work�ng Group 6 announced �t would comp�le good pract�ces �n tsunam� warn�ng d�ssem�nat�on. The report “Prepar�ng the Last M�le of the Ind�an Ocean Warn�ng System” should be ava�lable by the end of 2010.
7.3 Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans
Nat�onal progress reports on the �mplementat�on of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2007-2009)53 �nd�cate that emergency plans ex�st �n all countr�es but the extent to wh�ch they are �mplemented systemat�cally at all levels var�es w�dely.54 Countr�es �n the Ind�an Ocean and Southeast As�an reg�on report constra�nts due to insufficient financial and human resources, lack of ownership and challenges to �ntegrate d�saster r�sk reduct�on measures �nto susta�nable development.
Most countr�es recogn�ze the need to prepare commun�ty based d�saster preparedness and response plans with well defined linkages and coordination mechanisms with d�str�ct, prov�nce and state levels put �n place at each of the levels. Th�s �s a g�gant�c task and a comprehens�ve programme �s not ava�lable �n most cases. There are numerous actors �nvolved �n th�s area of work and �ntens�ve and �nnovat�ve work �s carr�ed out �n many countr�es �n selected areas to address rema�n�ng gaps.
7.4 Community Response Capacity
Although �ntens�ve work has been carr�ed out by a range of stakeholders to support development of commun�ty response capac�ty the results of the 2006 assessment of the gaps and challenges �n commun�ty response capac�ty by UN ISDR are st�ll most relevant in 2010:55
• Lack of mult�-agency collaborat�on and clar�ty of roles and respons�b�l�t�es at nat�onal to local levels;
• Lack of publ�c awareness and educat�on for early warn�ng response;
51 GTZ-GITEWS project publication (2010) 30 minutes in Padang – lessons for tsunami early warning and preparedness from the earthquake on 30 September 2009.52 JICA (2009) Viet Nam: Assessment Report on response to Typhoon Ketsana in the Central Region.53 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/priority5/?pid:227&pil:154 ISDR (2009) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.55 UN/ISDR. 2006. Global Survey of Early Warning Systems. An assessment of capac�t�es, gaps and opportun�t�es towards bu�ld�ng a comprehens�ve global early warn�ng system for all natural hazards. Un�ted Nat�ons Internat�onal Strategy for D�saster Reduct�on.
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knowledge; • Need for long-term r�sk-reduct�on strateg�es.
The local response actors requ�re further capac�ty development reg�on-w�de to strengthen the�r ab�l�ty to meet large and smaller d�saster response needs. From a human resources po�nt of v�ew, the needs for management sk�lls are cr�t�cal �n order to effectively utilize the technology and equipment required for efficient response. There are also shortages �n human resources espec�ally at the commun�ty level to manage the response requ�rements.
7.5 Public Awareness and Education
Another factor related to the efficacy of early warning systems is deeply rooted in commun�t�es’ knowledge of the�r own vulnerab�l�ty and the�r capac�ty to protect themselves and the�r l�vel�hoods.
Countryw�de publ�c awareness strateg�es are �mportant to st�mulate a culture of d�saster res�l�ence, w�th outreach to urban and rural commun�t�es. C�t�zens need to be up to date w�th current knowledge so they can prepare themselves to react. Statistics do not exist on levels of risk awareness region wide, or on the efficacy of awareness campa�gns undertaken, but th�s �nformat�on would be extremely useful.
The goal beh�nd any r�sk-awareness process �s to promote among people, the�r leaders and dec�s�on makers an acceptance of the value concern�ng the management of hazards �n order to reduce the r�sks of future catastroph�c losses.
To develop an appropr�ate campa�gn strategy to ra�se r�sk awareness, ISDR recommended a country needs to:56
• secure cont�nued resources for �mplement�ng awareness campa�gns;• determ�ne wh�ch commun�cat�on channels w�ll appeal to the w�dest
range of stakeholders, to ensure the campa�gns reach women and other h�gh-r�sk groups;
• seek to engage and �nform d�fferent age groups so as to bu�ld susta�ned understand�ng across generat�ons;
• establ�sh relat�onsh�ps for the �nvolvement of med�a profess�onals and other commerc�al and market�ng �nterests;
• engage respected local officials, religious and community leaders, and women’s and other spec�al �nterest groups, �n order to d�ssem�nate �nformat�on and encourage part�c�pat�on.
Supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunam�, D�saster and Cl�mate Preparedness the UNESCO Office Jakarta, Indonesia is implementing a depository of tsunami hazard information, tools and materials (i.e., assessment tools, publ�c awareness tools, tra�n�ng mater�al, best pract�ce �nformat�on and other relevant information) in order to optimize the use of these materials for w�der publ�c awareness and educat�on. The depos�tory collect�on w�ll be made ava�lable through the webs�te of the Jakarta Tsunam� Informat�on Centre (JTIC).
56 UN/ISDR. 2006. Global Survey of Early Warning Systems. An assessment of capacities, gaps and opportunities towards building a comprehensive global early warning system for all natural hazards. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
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S�mulat�ons and dr�lls const�tute exerc�ses to test and �mprove the degree of preparedness of an institution or a community to react efficiently and in a timely manner to an event, to test the soundness of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), to �mprove �nter-�nst�tut�onal coord�nat�on mechan�sms, and to promote awareness regard�ng how to respond �n case of an event of a certa�n nature.57
The 2009 Global Assessment Report on D�saster R�sk Reduct�on �nd�cated an absence of method�cal and regular dr�lls and s�mulat�ons �n most countr�es report�ng on progress on �mplementat�on of the Hyogo Framework for Act�on. In most countr�es affected by the 2004 tsunam� dr�lls have been conducted espec�ally in tsunami-affected areas but most require fine-tuning and expansion to include mult� hazard components. Dr�lls tend to be rather ad hoc and the h�gh r�sk areas in most countries are not covered proportionately with hazard-specific drills and evacuat�on �nformat�on. Wh�le warn�ng response dr�lls are �ncreas�ng, coord�nat�on and resources for coverage are not adequate - some prov�nces and d�str�cts are not able to conduct dr�lls due to budget constra�nts.
Ideally, s�mulat�ons, dr�lls and evacuat�on �nformat�on need to be supported by regulat�ons, wh�ch st�pulate frequency, standards for success and procedures cover�ng each area and hazard. Feedback, evaluat�on or measurement of the effect�veness of drills is still limited. Key influential actors such as education institutions, teachers, v�llage and rel�g�ous leaders, and local government �nst�tut�ons, as well as NGOs, the pr�vate sector and commun�ty based organ�zat�ons and networks should be �nvolved.
The reg�on w�de tsunam� “IOWave09” exerc�se, wh�ch took place on 14 October 2009, was an excellent example of a s�mulat�on that tested systems, processes and procedures from the reg�onal level to the nat�onal level and �n a number of countr�es down to the commun�ty level. More deta�ls on th�s reg�onal exerc�se are seen �n the text box below. A similar exercise (IOWave10) is planned for late 2010 but would not �nclude evacuat�ons of commun�t�es.
Indian Ocean Wave Exercise 2009
On 14 October 2009 the first life-sized tsunami simulation exercise was carried out successfully. The exercise aimed to test and evaluate the effectiveness of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS), and to increase preparedness in the region. More than 20 Member States from the ICG/IOTWS participated in Exercise IOWave09 and were able to test the response capacity of their National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) to bulletins issues by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) in Hawaii and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo.
Several countries, including Indonesia and Sri Lanka, conducted end-to-end test on their warning systems, including evacuation drills at selected coastal communities. Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWPs) in Australia, India and Indonesia exchanged bulletins during the exercise and shared these with their NTWC counterparts. This marked an important milestone for the IOTWS as the RTWPs are scheduled to take over regional advisory responsibilities from PTWC and JMA by early 2011.
57 IOC UNESCO (2009) Hazard Awareness and Risk Mitigation in Integrated Coastal Management (ICAM). Intergovernmental Oceanograph�c Comm�ss�on. IOC Manual and Gu�des No. 50, ICAM Doss�er No. 5.
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1. Cont�nue to support the mass�ve task of support�ng response capac�ty at the local level.
2. Support regulat�ons that st�pulate frequency for s�mulat�ons and dr�lls, standards for evaluat�on and procedures cover�ng each area and hazard, and �nvolv�ng key actors.
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