Microsoft PowerPoint - ~8204529 29 November 201029 November 2010
Hong Kong SAR GovernmentHong Kong SAR Government
2
2010
CB(1)614/10-11(01)
2
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.7%
6.8%

-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)

; Asia still the bright spot; Further improvement in
exports to US and Europe
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
US (92.8)
EU (86.1)

-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
14.0%

-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1.7%
5.7%

three quarters of notable expansion
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Gross domestic fixed capital formation

6
11
Unemployment rate fell to the lowest since end 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)

: ( )
20108-10 20098-10 Unemployment rate Unemployment rate
Aug - Oct 2010 Aug - Oct 2009
Construction 6.2 7.9 -1.7
Foundation and superstructure 5.9 7.7 -1.8
Decoration, repair and maintenance 7.2 8.5 -1.3
Import/export trades 3.7 4.7 -1.0
Retail 5.7 6.7 -1.0
Accommodation services 3.0 4.6 -1.6
Food services 5.4 8.2 -2.8
Transportation, storage, postal and courier services, information and communications 3.4 4.1 -0.7
Financing and insurance, real estate, professional and business services 3.0 3.6 -0.6 Overall 4.2 5.2 -1.0
(4.2) (5.3) (-1.1)

104% 102% The purchasing power of the income (as measured by the Composite CPI) in Q3 2000 and Q3 2009 were 104% and 102% of that in Q3 2010 respectively.
:
Note:
(10 years ago) ()
(1 year ago) (%) (%) (%)
Less than $4,000 8.1 7.7 7.1 $4,000 - $7,999 9.9 12.7 12.2 $8,000 - $11,999 14.1 13.5 12.9 $12,000 - $15,999 13.5 12.5 12.4 $16,000 - $23,999 18.9 17.5 17.5 $24,000 - $39,999 19.4 18.9 19.2 $40,000 - $99,999 14.0 14.5 15.8 $100,000 or above 2.1 2.8 2.9
9
17
: * 4,000 ( )
Notes: * Low-income households refer to households with monthly household income less than $4,000. ( ) Share in all domestic households.
Elderly
Q3 2000 105 600 29 000 30 400 165 000
(5.2) (1.4) (1.5) (8.1)
Q3 2005 119 700 34 500 31 900 186 100
(5.5) (1.6) (1.5) (8.5)
Q3 2009 106 000 39 800 31 200 177 000
(4.6) (1.7) (1.3) (7.7)
Q3 2010 105 700 40 200 20 300 166 200
(4.5) (1.7) (0.9) (7.1)
* Composition of and change in low-income households*
73.3 65.7 60.9 64.0 65.3 60.0 57.4 62.1 64.3 64.6 66.3 65.3 59.9 63.6
17.9
24.2
8.8 18.7 22.9 18.4 18.4 23.7 26.4 20.4 17.1 14.0 13.6 13.5 17.6 12.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
10
19
households*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Voluntary part-time (3 100, 13%) (3 100, constituting 13%)
Full-time (4 400, 19%) (4 400, constituting 19%)
Underemployed (1 300, 6%) (1 300, constituting 6%)
(*) Note : (*)
() Unemployed in low-income households (LHS)
() CSSA active caseload (unemployment) (LHS)
('000) Number ('000)
('000) Number ('000)
Oct 2010
Low-income households refer to households with monthly household income less than $4,000. This does not include economically active persons in the low-income households with elderly members only, but the numbers involved are insignificant. Monthly period-end figures.
4,000
economic cycles
Shanghai Composite Index
Singapore Straits Index
Hang Seng Index
markets worldwide
SCI (38%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

70
100
2008 Above 2008 peak: +15% 1997 Above 1997 peak: +10%
2008 Above 2008 peak: +22% 1997 Below 1997 peak: -11%
2008 Above 2008 peak: +24% 1997 Below 1997 peak: -12%
2010 Sep
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10

70
100
20103 Above Mar-2010: +6.1%
20103 Above Mar-2010: +7.7%
20103 Above Mar-2010: +8.1%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
20
40
60
80
100
() Number of transactions (LHS)

registered faster growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan- Sep

100
No. of secondary transactions for flats 100 sq m or above
70
No. of secondary transaction for flats less than 70 sq m
28
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
5
10
15
20
25

Share in total S&P agreements (%)
(1997-2009) Short-term resale as a share of total S&P agreements (97-09 avg.)
() Number of total S&P agreements (LHS)
()
Short-term resale as a share of total S&P agreements (RHS)
: Note : Short-term resale refers to resale within 24 months after assignment.
2010 Q3
15
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
(^) 45(70%20) ()
Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
2010 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1997 92.8 1997 Q2 : 92.8
30
interest rate eventually normalise
^ Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
2010 : 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1989-200852.6 1989-2008 average : 52.6
(^) 45(70%20) (
) Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
2010 Q3
Low interest rate and ample liquidity are the major
drivers
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
32
went on
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Basic foodstuffs
10 Oct
-4
0
4
8
12
18
35
: 2.5% Headline inflation: 2.5%
: 1.7% Underlying inflation: 1.7%
2010 Economic forecasts on Hong Kong for 2010
36
2011
•
Whether the new round of “quantitative easing” in the US can speed up recovery there is yet to know
•
Whether endogenous growth can take place in regions such as Europe, the US and Japan is also key
•
Need to beware of the notably increased risk of asset market bubble in Asia
Many uncertainties on the external front
38
•
•
Whether labour market can sustain the trend of improvement as shown in the past year
•
20
39

End