2010—the hottest year on record?myweb.wwu.edu/.../ev_based_climate_sci_chap4.pdf · real science...

Chapter 4

2010dThe Hottest Yearon Record?

Steve GoddardReal Science Blog

Chapter Outline1. Comparisons vs. 1998 146

2. Divergence from Other

Data Sources 148

3. What is GISS Doing

Wrong? 148

4. Was 2010 a Record

Hot Year? 150

5. What Caused the Positive

Anomalies in Early 2010? 153

6. Some History About

Dr. James Hansen 155

7. Conclusion 156

Dr. James Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) hasannounced that 2010 was the “hottest year on record” e by 0.01�. His claimhas been widely touted in the press as strong evidence that the climate israpidly heating e due to human generated CO2 emissions. Dr. Hansen has alsostated:

“I would not be surprised if most or all groups found that 2010 was tied for the warmestyear.”

But most groups do not support his claim. The other independent source ofsurface temperatures HadCRUT shows 2010 cooler than 1998. The graph inFig. 1 shows the month-to-month differences. Blue represents months where2010 was cooler than 1998.

The graph in Fig. 2 shows the HadCRUT temperature anomalies for eachyear since 1998. Last year was not a remarkable year, and was not as warm as1998.

Similarly, full year satellite temperatures from RSS show 2010 monthly andannual anomalies lower than 1998 (Fig. 3).

Satellite data from UAH also show 2010 slightly cooler than 1998.

Evidence-Based Climate Science. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-385956-3.10004-X

Copyright � 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 143

The graph in Fig. 4 shows 2010 monthly temperatures for each of the fourprimary data sets. As you can see, the month-to-month behavior of GISS globaltemperatures during 2010 was out of kilter with other data sources.

Note that GISS (blue) showed a large temperature spike in March e whichwas not seen by others. And from July through November, GISS increasedsharply while everyone else showed temperatures dropping e due to a nearrecord cold La Nina. La Nina is indicated by ocean temperatures well belownormal across much of the Pacific Ocean.

The November spike was followed in December by the largest month-to-month drop in the 130-year GISS record. What sudden change in the climate

19982010

0.80

HadCRUT Temperature Anomalies

0.65

0.50

Degrees C

0.35

0.20

JanuaryFebruary

MarchApril May

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SeptemberOctober

November

December

FIGURE 1 HadCRUT monthly temperature anomalies for 1998 and 2010.

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HadCRUT Anomalies

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Degrees C

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19992000

20012002

2003 2005 2007 20092004 2006 2008 2010

FIGURE 2 HadCRUT annual temperature anomalies for 1998 through 2010.

144 PART j II Temperature Measurements

could have caused a sharp December drop after 4 months of rise? A plausibleexplanation is that the AugusteNovember reported GISS temperatures weretoo high, and that December came back more in line with reality.

The NOAA graph (Fig. 5) shows that ocean surface temperatures acrossmuch of the Pacific have been the coldest on record since July (yet GISStemperatures rose sharply during that time).

From a physical point of view, it is implausible to have a JulyeNovembertemperature spike coincident with the rapidly cooling global sea surfacetemperatures seen in Fig. 6. This is because the oceans make up almost 70% of

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Degress C

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SeptemberOctober

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December

19982010

RSS Temperature Anomalies 2010 vs.1998

FIGURE 3 RSS monthly temperature anomalies for 1998 and 2010.

JanuaryFebruary

MarchApril May

June JulyAugust

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November

December

Degrees C

0.9GlSSRSS UAH

HadCRUT

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2010 Temperature Anomalies

FIGURE 4 Comparison of 2010 monthly anomalies for the four independent data sets.

145Chapter j 4 2010dThe Hottest Year on Record?

the planet’s surface, and because sea surface temperatures largely control thetemperatures over land.

1. COMPARISONS VS. 1998

The HadCRUT graph (Fig. 7) shows that 2010 was not a remarkable year fortemperatures, and was cooler than 1998. In fact, HadCRUT also shows thattemperatures have not warmed appreciably (if at all) since 1998.

By contrast, Dr. Hansen claims that temperatures have increased steadilysince the mid-1970s.

“Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades”

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Update:7NOAA/ESRL/Physical Science Division - University of Colorado at Boulder/CIRES

December 2010

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for six strongLa Niña events since 1949 vs. recent conditions

Stan

dard

ized

Dep

artu

re 1

0

–1

–2

FIGURE 5 Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for six strong La Nina events since 1949 vs. recent

conditions.

0.3 AMSR-E Global Sea Surface Temperature Variations

(3-day & 41-day averages, 3 June 2002 thru 31 Dec. 2010)

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thru Dec. 31, 2010

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maly (d

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. C

)

FIGURE 6 Global sea surface temperature variations.


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hadcrut3vg1/from:1997/from

WoodForTrees.org

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01996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FIGURE 7 HadCRUT monthly temperature anomalies since late 1997.

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gistemp/from:2002

WoodForTrees.org

FIGURE 8 GISTEMP monthly temperature anomalies since 2002.


However, even his own data show no significant trend since 2002, andchances are that the GISS January, 2011 anomaly will be one of the lowest ofthe past decade (Fig. 8).

The UK Met Office explicitly contradicts Dr. Hansen’s claim:

“In the last 10 years the rate of warming has decreased.”

2. DIVERGENCE FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES

Since the HadCRUT record warm year of 1998, GISS (Fig. 9 e green) hassteadily diverged from other data sets, and is now showing temperatures0.2e0.4� warmer. This is particularly significant because the claimed 2010record is by a much smaller margin than the discrepancy. Normally scientistswill associate a range of errors with their numbers, but Dr. Hansen has avoidedmentioning that concept to the press. Rather he has boldly stated that 2010 isthe hottest year on record e by 0.01�.

3. WHAT IS GISS DOING WRONG?

The biggest problem is that their warmest regions are in locations where theyhave little or no data. GISS released the map (Fig. 10) for December 2009through November 2010, showing large temperature anomalies near the NorthPole of 2e6 �C. Those hot red temperatures skew the global average temper-ature anomaly upwards e by a significant margin.

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

WoodForTree.org

rss/from:1998gistemp/from:1998hadcrut3vg1/from:1998uah/from:1998

2012

1

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0

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–0.4

FIGURE 9 Divergence of GISTEMP from the other three independent data sets since 1998.


But when we look at where GISS actually has thermometers, we see thatthey have very few in those “hot” regions. The gray regions in the map shown inFig. 11 indicate no data.

Temperature anomalies can vary a lot over short distances (note Russia inthe map above) yet GISS force fits the entire Arctic to 2e6 �C above normal.

FIGURE 10 GISSTEMP temperature anomalies December 2009eNovember 2010 with 1,200 km

smoothing.

Annuall D-N 2010 L–OTI(°C) Anomaly vs 1951–1980

–4.1 –4 –2 –1 –.5 –.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 5.8

.58

FIGURE 11 GISSTEMP temperature anomalies December 2009eNovember 2010 with 250 km

smoothing.


By averaging in large fabricated numbers, they skew the “global temperature”average upwards e by a significant amount. Remember that the GISS record isonly one hundredth of a degree warmer than their previous record.

Hansen’s claimed precision is much larger than his accuracy. He has notemperature data for more than 10% of the planet. His error bar is probably�0.3�, yet he claims a record by 0.01�. That mistake would cause him to failan undergraduate science or engineering class. GISS openly acknowledgesthat their artificial Arctic data are the causes of the discrepancy withHadCRUT.

“A likely explanation for discrepancy in identification of the warmest year is the fact thatthe HadCRUT analysis excludes much of the Arctic . (whereas GISS) estimatestemperature anomalies throughout most of the Arctic.”

4. WAS 2010 A RECORD HOT YEAR?

There is little evidence to support that. For example, the UK Met Officereported that 2010 was the coldest year in England since 1986. Temperaturesthere have dropped significantly over the past decade (Fig. 12).

Last winter and the current one have seen record or near record cold acrossmuch of the Northern Hemisphere. The Rutgers University graph (Fig. 13)shows that North America had the most extensive snow cover ever recorded lastwinter. One day in February, all 48 contiguous U.S. states had snow cover. Thiswas due largely to unusually cold temperatures in the deep south.

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1780

Based on Parker et al. (1992)

Met Office

Mean Central England TemperatureAnnual anomalies, 1772 to 2010

Diff

eren

ce (°

C) f

rom

196

1–90

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

FIGURE 12 Central England temperatures 1772e2010.


For the entire Northern Hemisphere, last winter had the second greatestsnow extent on record. This was again due to unusually cold temperatures atlow latitudes e places like Florida, Europe, and China (Fig. 14).

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FIGURE 13 Winter North American snow extent (Rutgers University global snow lab).

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FIGURE 14 Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent (Rutgers University Global Snow Lab).


Sea Surface Temperature anomaly [dC] Analysis for 08 JAN

Int: 0.5 Lo: –9.09 Hi: 8.93–9.5–8 –6.5–5 –3.5–2 –0.5 1 2.5 4 5.5 7 8.5

© UNiSYS

FIGURE 15 UNISYS sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, January 8, 2011.

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FIGURE 16 NCDC Florida December temperatures 1890e2010.


Like last year, winter 2010e2011 is again bringing unusually cold weatheracross much of the planet. Sea surface temperatures are running below normalacross vast swaths of the ocean. Recent satellite data show that globaltemperatures are well below the 30-year mean. This is not consistent with“record heat” (Fig. 15).

December 2010 was the second coldest out of 353 years in England and thecoldest on record in the UK. Florida also had their coldest December on recordin 2010, as shown in Fig. 16.

The current winter has also seen near record snow across much of Asia,Europe, and North America. December had the fourth largest NorthernHemisphere December snow extent ever measured (Fig. 17).

5. WHAT CAUSED THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN EARLY2010?

GISS showed a large spike in temperatures in March. Was this actually due to“hot” weather? The map in Fig. 18 is the RSS satellite temperature anomalymap for March, and it shows some interesting features.

There is an anomalously warm region in Northern Canada and WesternGreenland, where temperatures were running about �20 �C, 5� warmer thanthe normal�25 �C. This was due to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which bringswarmer than normal temperatures to portions of Canada e and cold weather toEurope, Russia, the United States, and much of Asia.

Is �20 �C (�4 �F) hot? Not exactly. GISS extrapolated the anomalous“warmth” across the entire Arctic Map (Fig. 19) and reported a large Marchtemperature spike which was inconsistent with other data sets. GISS alsosomehow missed the cold weather in Europe and much of Russia.

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^2

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19741978

19821986

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19982002

20062010

FIGURE 17 Northern Hemisphere December snow cover 1966e2010 (Rutgers University Global

Snow Lab).


Once again we see that Hansen’s 0.01 record temperature is based onsuspect data.

Another important factor in the warmth of 2010 was a strong El Nino, whichdominated the first half of the year. This caused a short-term spike intemperatures which should not be interpreted as a trend (Fig. 20).

MSU/AMSU Channel TLT Brightness Temperature Anomaly, March, 2010

Brightness Temperature Anomaly (K)

0 2 4–4 –2

Remote Sensing Systemswww.remss.com

FIGURE 18 RSS temperature anomalies, March, 2010.

March 2010 .84

–4.1 –4 –2 –1 –.5 –.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 8.6

L–OTI(°C) Anomaly vs 1951–1980

FIGURE 19 GISTEMP March, 2010 temperature anomalies with 1,200 km smoothing.


6. SOME HISTORY ABOUT DR. JAMES HANSEN

Dr. Hansen has a long history of exaggerated warming forecasts.

Hansen said that the average U.S. temperature had risen from one to two degrees since1958 and is predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010and 2020. The Press-Courier (Milwaukee) June 11 1986

“Within 15 years (before 2001),” said Goddard Space Flight Center honcho JamesHansen, “global temperatures will rise to a level which hasn’t existed on earth for100,000 years”. The News and Courier, June 17th 1986

Pursuing present plans for coal and oil, Hansen found, the climate in the middle of the21st century “would approach the warmth of the age of the dinosaurs.” The Leader-Post,January 9th, 1982

(Hansen’s 1988 forecast for Manhattan in 2008) “The West Side Highway [whichruns along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape acrossthe windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t bethere. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will bemore police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heatgoes up.”

http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/

[Since Dr. Hansen made that prediction, NOAA tide gauges show less than one half inchrise in sea level near Manhattan.]

“How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today ewhich is what we expect later this century e sea levels were 25m higher.”

http://www.climateimc.org

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UAH Satellite-Based Temperature

of the Global Lower Atmosphere

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993

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13 month

running

average

Jan. 2011:

–0.01 deg. C

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

FIGURE 20 UAH monthly temperature anomalies 1978e2010 (http://www.drroyspencer.com/).


Temperatures have not come close to what Dr. Hansen formally forecast in1988 e Fig. 21. The red dot is the GISS December anomaly. (January willlikely be even lower.) The top line is where Hansen forecast we should be undera high-emissions scenario. The bottom dashed line is where he forecast wewould be if CO2 emissions were cut dramatically. Yet CO2 emissions havegreatly increased, but temperatures have not.

“Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumesa reduced linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment oftrace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year2000.”

Manhattan is not disappearing under water, but Dr. Hansen continues toproject similar bloated forecasts into the future.

7. CONCLUSION

The 2010 record temperature claim is not scientifically supportable for manyreasons e rather it is a global warming marketing bullet. 2011 is starting out asa very cold year in the U.S. and across much of the rest of the planet eparticularly Asia. Chances are 2011 will be one of the coolest years in recentmemory. It will be interesting to see what claims will be made by Hansen thisyear (Fig. 22).

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5-Year Running Mean

2000 2020 2040 2060

Date

ΔT(°

C)

Scenario AScenario BScenario C

FIGURE 21 Hansen’s 1988 temperature forecasts for various emission scenarios (A, B, C).


Dr. Hansen functions in the roles of global warming head coach, cheer-leader, referee, and scorekeeper. Temperature measurements need to be madeby neutral third parties in the global warming debate.

Departure from Normal Temperature (F)

–25 –20 –15 –10 –5 5 10 15 20 25

Generated 1/16/2011 at HPRCC using provisional data. Regional Climate Centers

0

1/1/2011 – 1/15/2011

FIGURE 22 Temperature anomaly map January 1 to January 15, 2011 (High Plains Regional

Climate Center).


2010—the hottest year on record?myweb.wwu.edu/.../ev_based_climate_sci_chap4.pdf · real science...

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