2010 commercial space transportation forecast for non-geosynchronous orbits

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Better Decisions…Better Future

2010 Commercial Space 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Transportation Forecast for Non-

Geosynchronous OrbitsGeosynchronous OrbitsPresentation to COMSTAC

May 19, 2010

Better Decisions…Better FutureISO 9001 Registered

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Contents and PurposeContents and Purpose• Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-

Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) Developed by the FAA/AST with help from the Futron Corporation Projects global commercial launch demand for 2010-2019 All nongeosynchronous orbits including

• Low Earth orbit• Medium Earth orbit• Elliptical orbits• External orbits such as to the Moon or other solar system destinations

Commercial definition:• Internationally competed launches• Licensed by the FAA/AST

• Purpose of the NGSO forecast To help the FAA/AST plan for its commercial launch licensing and promotional

role To raise public awareness of the scope and trajectory of commercial spaceflight

demand


Basic MethodologyBasic Methodology• This report is based on research and discussions with:

Industry including: • Satellite service providers• Satellite manufacturers• Launch service providers

Government offices Independent analysts

• The forecast tracks progress for publicly-announced satellites and considers a number of factors, some examples:

Financing Regulatory developments Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts Investor confidence Competition from space and terrestrial sectors Overall economic conditions

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Commercial NGSO Launch Industry MapCommercial NGSO Launch Industry Map

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Satellite and Launch DemandSatellite and Launch Demand

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• Demand Drivers Large deployments of telecommunications constellations A steady demand for launch of international science and other satellites The new and promising sector of orbital facility assembly and services A small but steady launch demand for commercial remote sensing satellites

Total Satellites: 262 Total Launches: 119


Historical vs. Forecasted LaunchesHistorical vs. Forecasted Launches

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2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts

• Primary changes in market demand: Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations. Large constellation deployment plans that leverage a greater number of launches than expected

(ORBCOMM); or fewer (Iridium) Delay in the initial NASA COTS demonstration flights and the extension of ISS CRS beyond 2016

also contributed to the difference. • 7


International Science and Other International Science and Other Launch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Stable scientific demand from national space programs Largest source of demand for small launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Four launches per year average during forecast period


Commercial Remote Sensing Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Growing demand for commercial remote sensing products Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Demand for under two launches per year average during forecast period


TelecommunicationsTelecommunicationsLaunch History and ForecastLaunch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics Large deployments of telecommunications constellations Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) Majority of demand occurs in the first five years of the forecast, followed by minimal demand

between cycles


OFAS Launch History and Forecast OFAS Launch History and Forecast

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• Characteristics NASA Commercial Resupply Services contracts provide a foundation of demand Demand for four launches per year average during forecast period Successful development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could unlock increased launch

demand in this sector


Emerging Markets That Could Impact Emerging Markets That Could Impact Future DemandFuture Demand

• Commercial Human Orbital Spaceflight Development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could generate new launch

demand and possibly lead to the deployment of private space stations that require a large number of human and cargo supply flights.

Potential demand from NASA, Bigelow, Excalibur, etc.• Orbital Microsatellite Launch

The emergence of a low-cost, reliable microsatellite launch vehicle may increase launch demand as satellite operators would likely move away from multi-manifesting to dedicated microsatellite launch systems.

• Exploration and Technology Demonstration Lunar exploration, science, and development may be spurred by private space

competitions and government use of commercial launch system.

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UncertaintyUncertainty• Fourteen sources of certainty examined, examples:

Financial uncertainty:• U.S. national and global economy• Investor confidence• Corporate mergers• Terrestrial competition

Political Uncertainty:• Policy and regulations• Increase/decrease in government purchase of commercial satellite services• Government missions open/closed to commercial launch competition

Technical Uncertainty:• Launch failure• Satellite manufacturing delay• Satellite failure in orbit• Introduction of innovative/disruptive technology

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EndEnd

• Questions?

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Backup – Launch Demand by Mass ClassBackup – Launch Demand by Mass Class

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Backup – Forecast ComparisonsBackup – Forecast Comparisons

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Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches Backup – Average vs. Maximum Launches per Forecastper Forecast

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Backup - Supporting DataBackup - Supporting Data

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2010 commercial space transportation forecast for non-geosynchronous orbits

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