2010 – 2020 Occupations

November 2012Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist

What jobs will have the best future outlook!

Labor Market Information•Job Descriptions•Education•Wages•Employment levels•Future Growth

1) NM Economic SituationIndustry

Recession Impact Current SituationWhat’s Next (2010-2020)

Occupations Hot JobsClustersSTEM & Healthcare

Agenda

2) Sources & Tools

Career Solutions LASERCareerOnestop.org

The Great Recession Ended July 2009?

4

September 2012: 794,300 September 2011: 805,200 Over -the-year change: -10,900

New Mexico Total Non-farm Seasonally Adjusted Employment

USIn thousands

NM

Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted

NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present

1990

-01

1990

-07

1991

-01

1991

-07

1992

-01

1992

-07

1993

-01

1993

-07

1994

-01

1994

-07

1995

-01

1995

-07

1996

-01

1996

-07

1997

-01

1997

-07

1998

-01

1998

-07

1999

-01

1999

-07

2000

-01

2000

-07

2001

-01

2001

-07

2002

-01

2002

-07

2003

-01

2003

-07

2004

-01

2004

-07

2005

-01

2005

-07

2006

-01

2006

-07

2007

-01

2007

-07

2008

-01

2008

-07

2009

-01

2009

-07

2010

-01

2010

-07

2011

-01

2011

-0720

12-120

12-7

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

NM US

NM Industries Change

HOW DID NEW MEXICO HANDLE THE RECESSION?

•Mining lost over 500

•Construction shed about 16,000

•Manufacturing lost another 8,000

•Retail took a hit with 6,000

•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000

•Bright spot Health Care +12,000

AgricultureMiningUtilities

ConstructionManufacturing

Wholesale TradeRetail Trade

Transportation & WarehousingInformation

Finance and InsuranceReal Estate

Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises

Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services

Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin

Public Administration

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NMDWS

To 1st Qtr 2012562 Ag

3,398 Mining-27 Utils.

-1,843 Const. 532 Manuf. 459 Whole. 1,111 Retail

955 Trans. 12 Info.-368 Fin. -116 RE

-945 Prof. 0 Mgmt.

-1,922 Admin.-961 Ed.

2,223 Health526 Arts

151 Accom.111 Other-1,670 PA

NM Employment Industry Mix

Source: Projections unit 2010-2020, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions

Utilities1%

Mgmt of Co.1% Real Estate

1%

Agriculture1%

Arts & Rec.2% Information

2%Transportation

2% Mining2%

Other Svcs 3%

Finance3%

Wholesale3%

Manufacturing4%

Admin. & Waste Mgmt

5%Construction

6%Professional, Sci-

entific, & Tech Svcs7%

Accommodation & Food Services

10%

Educational Svcs10%

Retail Trade11%

Government (Ex. Health & Ed)

12%

Health Care & Social Assistance

15%

2010 Emp. Est.

Current Employment SituationThe unemployment rate for:

September 2012 September 2011

The US is at 7.8 % 9.0 %

New Mexico 6.4 % 7.4 %

Albuquerque 6.6% 7.8%

Farmington 6.4% 7.4%

Las Cruces 6.7% 6.9%

Santa Fe 5.0% 6.0%

The bad news is…

Seasonally Adjusted

What about…

9

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6

NM 14.8%US 15.0%

Third Quarter of 2011 through Third Quarter of 2012 Averages.

• Unemployed

• Part time for economic reasons

• Multiple Jobs holders

•Marginally attached workers

•Bureau of Labor Statistics

•4 QTR Moving Average

•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

Part time but would work

full timeDiscouraged unemployed workers

Multiple job holders

Employment to Population Ratio

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

1-19769-19775-19791-19819-19825-19841-19869-19875-19891-19919-19925-19941-19969-19975-19991-20019-20025-20041-20069-20075-20091-20119-201248

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

New Mexico Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly 1976-2012

Employed as a percent of population

NM UI Continued Claims Duration

Based on UI Summary Data 1st Qtr 2012: Average Duration 20.3 weeks in 2011

071-074

072-081

073-082

074-083

081-084

082-091

083-092

084-093

091-094

092-101

093-102

094-103

101-104

102-111

103-112

104-113

111-114

112-121

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90New Mexico: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)

52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5

Four-Quarter Period (Year/Quarter)

Tota

l Une

mpl

oyed

(Tho

usan

ds)

Source: Current Population Survey

US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Men Women

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age2011 annual averages

16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over

0

5

10

15

20

2522.9

12.5

8.76.5

5.53.9 4.4

Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

7.4%

New Mexico 2011 Unemployment Rate

White, one race

Black or African American, one race

American Indian and Alaska Native, one race

Asian, one race

Some other race

Two or more races

Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)

White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

Population 20 to 64 years

10.0%

11.7%

19.4%

10.8%

12.2%

14.9%

13.1%

7.7%

10.2%

Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin

Source: 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301 Employment Status

County Unemployment Rates September 2012

6.57.8

6.2

6.0

7.4

4.44.2

6.6 4.0

7.1

8.9

3.8

4.2

5.3

3.1

16.9

7.913.6

5.8

7.1

7.2

4.4

6.5

6.75.2

6.1

4.8

7.9

7.9

4.3

7.8

5.4

7.2

8.2

6.6

6.2

7.8

4.63.8

7.2 4.1

7.2

11.2

4.2

5.9

4.3

5.5

3.1

19.9

8.713.9

7.2

7.2

8.4

4.6

7.1

7.38.15.5

6.7

5.0

9.1

7.7

4.5

8.2

Not seasonally adjustedSource: NMDWS LAUS unit in conjunction with US Bureau of Labor Statistics

What’s Next : Employment Projections 2010-2020

FutureFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The future is the indefinite time period after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics.

National Trends – projected population by age

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

NM Population Projections by Age

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

April 2000

July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025

65 years & over45 to 64 yrs25 to 44 yrs18 to 24 yrs14 to 17 yrs5 to 13 yrsUnder 5 yrs

Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005

NM Employment Projections 2010-2020

750,000 800,000 850,000 900,000 950,000

1,000,000 1,050,000

855,296

991,600

Growth of 136,304Total Change 15.9%Annual Average Change 1.49%

Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit

2010-2020 Projections Workforce Investment Areas

2010 Estimated Employment 2020 Projected Employment -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Southwestern

Northern

Eastern

Central

Annual Average Percent Change

1.40

1.46

1.50

1.43

Source: NMDWS ER&A Projections Unit

Projected 991,600

NM Job Recovery

Max Employment CES April 2008 at 852,000

Dec-07

Mar-08Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000

880,000

900,000

Straight Line ProjectionTotal EmploymentEmployment Pre-Recession

Intersect in 2015.

Min. EmploymentAugust 2012 at 794,300

Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011

Tigger Slide

Occupations

24

O*NET / SOC 2010 Code StructureSample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists

11- Management Occupations13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations17-Architecture and engineering Occupations19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations21- Community and Social services Occupations23- Legal Occupations25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs.31- Healthcare Support Occupations

33- Protective Service Occupations35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs.37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance39- Personal Care and Service Occupations41- Sales and Related Occupations43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs.47- Construction and Extraction Occs.49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair51- Production Occupations53- Transportation and Material Moving55- Military Specific Occupations

Organized into Groups:

New Mexico Occupational Group

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Office & Administrative Support

Sales & Related

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Construction & Extraction

Education, Training, & Library

Management

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical*

Personal Care & Service*

Transportation & Material Moving

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Healthcare Support*

Business & Financial Operations

Production

Protective Service

Architecture & Engineering

Community & Social Services

Computer & Mathematical *

Life, Physical, & Social Science

Arts, Entertainment, Sports, & Media

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Legal

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Employment 2010 - 2020

2020 Projected Employment 2010 Estimated Employment

Occupational Employment by Education Needed

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Some College, no degree1%

Master's degree2% Doctoral or professional degree

3%Postsecondary non-

degree award4%

Associate's degree6%

Bachelor's degree13%

Less than high school30%

High school diploma or equiva-lent42%

NM 10 Occupations with the Highest Employment

Occupation

2010 Estimated

Employment

Retail Salespersons 29,637

Cashiers 19,001

Personal and Home Care Aides 17,778

Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,486

Registered Nurses 15,146

Waiters and Waitresses 15,141

General and Operations Managers 13,993

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 13,692

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 13,489

Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 13,168

Nationally – Retail Salespersons and Cashiers make up nearly 6 percent of total US Employment, OES 2011.

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

NM Occupations, Most Annual Openings

Rank Occupational

2010-2020Annual

Average Job Openings

2011Entry Level Wage (OES)

1 Retail Salespersons 1,435 $17,320

2 Waiters and Waitresses 1,114 $17,260

3 Cashiers 1,112 $17,330

4 Personal and Home Care Aides 1,083 $17,290

5Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Inc. Fast Food 809 $17,200

6 Registered Nurses 667 $50,290

7 Home Health Aides 600 $20,110

8 Customer Service Representatives 501 $20,850

9Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 500 $38,410

10 Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers 494 $17,510

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Annual Average Openings

Office & Administrative Support

Sales & Related

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Construction & Extraction

Education, Training, & Library

Management

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Personal Care & Service

Transportation & Material Moving

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Healthcare Support

Business & Financial Operations

Production

Protective Service

Architecture & Engineering

Community & Social Services

Computer & Mathematical

Life, Physical, & Social Science

Arts, Entertainment, Sports, & Media

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Legal

4,107

3,792

4,300

2,141

2,619

1,563

1,934*

2,090*

1,795

1,263

1,074

1,246 *

1,058

863

891

716

643

565 *

674

394

249

119

ReplacementTotal Annual Average Openings

* Note:Four groups with higher Openings due to growth

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

Highest Growth Jobs in NMOccupations 2010-2020

Annual Percent Change

Home Health Aides 4.8%

Personal and Home Care Aides 4.3%

Coaches and Scouts 3.9%

Helpers--Carpenters 3.6%

Interpreters and Translators 3.6%

Meeting and Convention Planners 3.6%

Roustabouts, Oil and Gas 3.4%

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 3.3%

Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas 3.3%

Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas 3.2%

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 3.2%

Physical Therapist Assistants 3.1%

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS

NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth

Rank Occupational Title

2011Annual

Average Wage (OES)

2010-20Annual Job

Growth

1 Radio Mechanics $46,290 5.1%

2 Interpreters and Translators $53,200 3.6%3 Meeting and Convention Planners $49,500 3.6%

4 Roustabouts, Oil and Gas $34,150 3.4%

5 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $67,240 3.3%

6 Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas $49,910 3.3%7 Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas $63,980 3.2%

8Philosophy and Religion Teachers, Postsecondary $60,870 3.2%

9 Physical Therapist Assistants $37,730 3.1%

10 Financial Examiners $79,940 3.0%

Source: 2010-2020 Estimated Employment Projections & Occupational Employment Survey Units NMDWS

Show me the money!12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico 2011

Occupation

Annual Median

Wage (OES )

Psychiatrists $180,740

Family and General Practitioners $174,990 Pediatricians, General $166,810 Dentists, General $157,380 Dentists, All Other Specialists $141,600 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary $134,610 Engineering Managers $131,290 Pharmacists $117,040 Air Traffic Controllers $114,050 Engineers, All Other $111,100 Materials Scientists $111,090 Natural Sciences Managers $106,360 Podiatrists $104,210

Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS

Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico

Occupation

2011 Average Annual Wage

(OES)

Baggage Porters and Bellhops $18,580

Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners $18,570

Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products $18,560

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials $18,390

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse $18,350

Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers, All Other $18,310

Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials $18,310

Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop $18,300

Dishwashers $18,270

Child Care Workers $18,260

Source: Occupational Employment Survey (OES) Unit NMDWS

The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2010-2020Occupation Title Annual Percent

Change

Postal Service Clerks -6.0%Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators -6.0%

Prepress Technicians and Workers -3.6%

Postmasters and Mail Superintendents -2.7%

Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service -2.7%

Desktop Publishers -2.5%

Office Machine Operators, Except Computer -1.9%

Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers -1.7%

Camera Operators, Television, Video, and Motion Picture -1.5%

Radio and Television Announcers -1.4%

Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials -1.4%

Motion Picture Projectionists -1.3%

Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers -1.3%

Reporters and Correspondents -1.3%

Floral Designers -1.2%

Detailed job profile for nearly 800 occupations

• Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities• SOC and O*NET

• Training Program Completers• Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many

• Typical Education Requirements• Wage Statistics by area and industry• Employment Projections• Employment by Industry• Area’s available:

– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions

Tools for LMI• Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/

• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/

• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/

• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us

• National http://careeronestop.org/

• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/

•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/

Education Pays

Thank You!

Suzan ReaganE-mail suzan.reagan@state.nm.usPhone (505) 383-2731