2009 pacific northwest resource adequacy assessment resource adequacy technical committee october...
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2009 Pacific NorthwestResource Adequacy Assessment
Resource Adequacy Technical Committee
October 16, 2009
October 16, 2009 2
Current Assessment Method
1. Simulate futures using random variables• Runoff volumes• Temperatures (loads)• Thermal outages• Wind generation
2. Define “bad” events• Energy: total winter curtailment > 1,200 MW-days• Capacity: any hour curtailment > 3,000 MW
October 16, 2009 3
Current Method (cont’d)
3. LOLP = number of futures with bad events divided by the total number of futures
• Winter energy and capacity• Summer capacity
4. 5% LOLP = adequate supply
5. Translate 5% LOLP into deterministic metrics• Annual load/resource balance (energy)• Sustained-peak surplus capability (capacity)
October 16, 2009 4
Metrics• Annual Needs – Annual average generating
capability minus annual average load, referred to as the annual load/resource balance (in MWa)
• Hourly Needs – Surplus hourly generating capability over expected sustained peak hourly load, referred to as the reserve margin (in percent)
October 16, 2009 5
Thresholds
• Energy – Load/resource balance• Physical = 0 MWa• Economic = approx. 3,000 MWa
• Capacity – Reserve margin• Physical Winter = 23%• Physical Summer = 24%• Economic = ?
October 16, 2009 6
Energy Load/Resource BalanceExpected Build-Out Schedule
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Av
era
ge
MW
PlanAdjust
In-regionIPP
UtilityNonfirm
Adequacy Balance
Firm Load/Resource Balance
With Plan Resources
October 16, 2009 7
January Capacity Reserve MarginExpected Build-Out Schedule
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Su
sta
ine
d P
ea
k R
es
erv
e M
arg
in
With Plan Resources
Hydro Flex
In-regionIPP
SWMarket
Adequacy Reserve Margin
Firm ResourceReserve Margin
Threshold
October 16, 2009 8
July Capacity Reserve MarginExpected Build-Out Schedule
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Su
sta
ine
d P
ea
k R
es
erv
e M
arg
in
Plan Resources
Hydro Flex
In-regionIPP
With Plan Resources
Firm Resource Reserve Margin
Adequacy RM
Threshold
October 16, 2009 9
Adequacy Violation Dates(3 and 5 years out are 2012 and 2014)
• Energy 2025
• January Peaking 2030
• July Peaking 2013
October 16, 2009 10
Adequacy Status - Yellow
• Regional status = Yellow Light Warning
• July capacity inadequacy 4 years out
October 16, 2009 11
Implementation Actions GreenGreen
• Proceed with normal planning activities• Compare results with other regional reports
YellowYellow• Regional report• Forum review of data and assumptions
RedRed• Regional conference• Regional review of data and assumptions• Identify inadequate utilities
October 16, 2009 12
Current Activities
• RPS legislation is pushing wind development
• Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition
• Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2028
• Forum will review data and methodology