2006 preliminary baselinewheat barley corn sorghum world grain area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400...

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2006 2006 Preliminary Baseline Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005 Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011 Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011 - - 1070 1070 (515) 294 (515) 294 - - 6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu 6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

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Page 1: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

2006 2006 Preliminary BaselinePreliminary Baseline

December 15-16, 2005

Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentCenter for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentIowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011--10701070

(515) 294(515) 294--6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu

FAPRIFood and Agricultural

Policy Research Institute

Page 2: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONALCROPSCROPS

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357

[email protected]

Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentCenter for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentIowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011--10701070

(515) 294(515) 294--6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu

FAPRIFood and Agricultural

Policy Research Institute

FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005

Page 3: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Growth Rate of Real GDP Growth Rate of Real GDP

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

China Russia Ukraine

Page 4: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Growth Rate of Real GDP Growth Rate of Real GDP

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Argentina Brazil Mexico

Page 5: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Exchange RateExchange Rate

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Australia Argentina Canada Brazil China EU

Page 6: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Issues & QuestionsIssues & Questions

China’s import demand Russia and Ukraine’s export potential CanadaAustraliaEU-15 and EU NMS

Page 7: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Grain PricesWorld Grain Prices

40

80

120

160

200

240

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US$/mt

Wheat Barley Corn Sorghum

Page 8: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Grain AreaWorld Grain Area

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum

Page 9: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Grain UsesWorld Grain Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Use

Page 10: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

WWHEATHEAT

Simla Tokgöz(515) [email protected] 20062006

Page 11: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Page 12: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Price and World AreaWheat Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 1 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 1 %

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

Page 13: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Wheat Consumption and TradeWorld Wheat Consumption and Trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120mmt

Wheat Consumption Wheat Net Trade

Page 14: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Wheat UsesWorld Wheat Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

60

65

70

75

80

85kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

Page 15: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--25 Wheat Production, Consumption and 25 Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 16: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

CAP ReformCAP ReformDecoupling Rate

67% for 2006, 93% for 2007 and onwards

Modulation Rate4% for 2006, 5% for 2007 and onwards

Reduction in Durum Wheat AidElimination of Rye Intervention

Page 17: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--15 Wheat Production, Consumption and 15 Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 18: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EU Enlargement AssumptionsEU Enlargement AssumptionsTop-up payments

30% through out the projection period

Set-aside rateStarts in 2009

Page 19: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EU NMS Wheat Production, Consumption and EU NMS Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 20: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Australia Wheat Production, Consumption and Australia Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 21: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Canada Wheat Production, Consumption and Canada Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 22: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Argentina Wheat Production, Consumption and Argentina Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 23: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption and Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 24: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Russia Wheat Production, Consumption and Russia Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 25: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Wheat Production, Consumption and China Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 26: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Wheat Ending StocksChina Wheat Ending Stocks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Page 27: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption and Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 28: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

CCORNORN

Simla Tokgöz(515) [email protected] 20062006

Page 29: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Page 30: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Price and World AreaCorn Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.4 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.4 %

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

Page 31: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Corn Consumption and TradeWorld Corn Consumption and Trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100mmt

Corn Consumption Corn Net Trade

Page 32: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Corn UsesWorld Corn Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

Page 33: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Argentina Corn Production, Consumption and Argentina Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 34: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Brazil Corn Production, Consumption and Brazil Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 35: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

South Africa Corn Production, Consumption and South Africa Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 36: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--25 Corn Production, Consumption and 25 Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 37: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--15 Corn Production, Consumption and 15 Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 38: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EU NMS Corn Production, Consumption and EU NMS Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 39: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Mexico Corn Production, Consumption and Mexico Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 40: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Importsand Net Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 41: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Corn Production, Consumption and China Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 42: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Corn Ending StocksChina Corn Ending Stocks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Page 43: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Corn StockWorld Corn Stock--toto--Use RatioUse Ratio

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Stock-to-Use Ratio (Adjusted) Stock-to-Use Ratio (World)

Page 44: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Egypt Corn Production, Consumption and Egypt Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 45: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 46: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

BBARLEYARLEY

Simla Tokgöz(515) [email protected] 20062006

Page 47: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Page 48: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Barley Price and World AreaBarley Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$/mt

World Area Price (Canada Feed)

Page 49: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Barley Consumption and TradeWorld Barley Consumption and Trade

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-3

2

7

12

17

22mmt

Barley Consumption Barley Net Trade

Page 50: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Barley UsesWorld Barley Uses

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

Page 51: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Australia Barley Production, Consumption and Australia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 52: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 53: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--25 Barley Production, Consumption and 25 Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 54: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--15 Barley Production, Consumption and 15 Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 55: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EU NMS Production, Consumption and EU NMS Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 56: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Russia Barley Production, Consumption and Russia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 57: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption and Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 58: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Saudi Arabia Barley Production, Consumption and Saudi Arabia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 59: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Barley Production, Consumption and China Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 60: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Barley Ending StocksChina Barley Ending Stocks

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Page 61: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

SSORGHUMORGHUM

Simla Tokgöz(515) [email protected] 20062006

Page 62: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Page 63: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Sorghum Price and World AreaSorghum Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

Page 64: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Sorghum Consumption and TradeWorld Sorghum Consumption and Trade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9mmt

Sorghum Consumption Sorghum Net Trade

Page 65: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Exportsand Net Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 66: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Argentina Sorghum Production, Consumption Argentina Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Exportsand Net Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Page 67: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Importsand Net Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 68: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Sorghum Trade World Sorghum Trade -- Market SharesMarket Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Australia Argentina U.S.

Page 69: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Thank You!Thank You!

Page 70: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

WheatWheat Additional GraphsAdditional Graphs

Page 71: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Wheat Trade World Wheat Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia U.S.

Page 72: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Wheat Imports by RegionsWorld Wheat Imports by Regions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Asia Latin America Middle East and Africa

Page 73: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Asian Wheat ImportsAsian Wheat Imports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

China India Japan South Korea Taiwan Other Asia

Page 74: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Latin American Wheat ImportsLatin American Wheat Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Brazil Mexico Other Latin America

Page 75: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

African and Middle Eastern Wheat ImportsAfrican and Middle Eastern Wheat Imports

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Algeria Tunisia Iran Morocco Egypt Other Middle East and Africa

Page 76: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Yields Wheat Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia U.S.

Page 77: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Yields Wheat Yields –– Selected CountriesSelected Countries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

Brazil China Ukraine Russia

Page 78: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Area Wheat Area –– MajorMajor CompetitorsCompetitors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia

Page 79: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Production Wheat Production –– Major CompetitorsMajor Competitors

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia

Page 80: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Wheat Exports Wheat Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

U.S. Canada Australia Argentina EU-15

Page 81: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Japan Wheat Production, Consumption and Japan Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 82: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Additional GraphsCorn Additional Graphs

Page 83: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Corn Trade World Corn Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

U.S. EU New Member States South Africa Argentina

Page 84: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Yields Corn Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Page 85: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Yields Corn Yields –– Selected CountriesSelected Countries

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

China Russia Ukraine Canada

Page 86: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Area Corn Area –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Page 87: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Production Corn Production –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Page 88: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Corn Exports Corn Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

U.S. EU New Member States South Africa Argentina

Page 89: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Latin American Corn ImportsLatin American Corn Imports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Brazil Mexico Other Latin America

Page 90: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Middle Eastern and African Corn ImportsMiddle Eastern and African Corn Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Israel Other Middle East Algeria Egypt Other Africa

Page 91: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Asian Corn ImportsAsian Corn Imports

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

China Japan South Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia

Page 92: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Major OECD Corn ImportersMajor OECD Corn Importers

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Japan EU-15 Canada

Page 93: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Japan Corn Production, Consumption and Japan Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 94: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Taiwan Corn Production, Consumption and Taiwan Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 95: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Barley Additional GraphsBarley Additional Graphs

Page 96: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

World Barley Trade World Barley Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Australia Canada EU-15 Ukraine

Page 97: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Barley Production Barley Production –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Canada EU-15 Russia Ukraine

Page 98: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Barley Exports Barley Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Canada EU-15 Russia Ukraine

Page 99: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Barley Imports by Major ImportersBarley Imports by Major Importers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Japan China Saudi Arabia

Page 100: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Japan Barley Production, Consumption and Japan Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Page 101: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Sorghum Additional GraphsSorghum Additional Graphs

Page 102: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Sorghum Area Sorghum Area –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Argentina U.S.

Page 103: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Sorghum Yields Sorghum Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Argentina U.S.

Page 104: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Sorghum Imports by Major ImportersSorghum Imports by Major Importers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Mexico Japan

Page 105: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

GRAINSGRAINS

Simla Tokgöz(515) [email protected] 20062006

Page 106: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Argentina Grain ExportsArgentina Grain Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Corn Sorghum

Page 107: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Argentina Grain AreaArgentina Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Sorghum

Page 108: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Australia Grain ExportsAustralia Grain Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Page 109: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Australia Grain AreaAustralia Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Page 110: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Canada Grain ExportsCanada Grain Exports

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 111: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Canada Grain AreaCanada Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 112: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--15 Grain Exports15 Grain Exports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 113: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

EUEU--15 Grain Area15 Grain Area

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 114: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Brazil Grain ImportsBrazil Grain Imports

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 115: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Brazil Grain AreaBrazil Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

Page 116: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Mexico Grain ImportsMexico Grain Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Page 117: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Mexico Grain AreaMexico Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Page 118: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Grain ImportsChina Grain Imports

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Corn Barley

Page 119: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

China Grain AreaChina Grain Area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Barley

Page 120: 2006 Preliminary BaselineWheat Barley Corn Sorghum World Grain Area 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 mha Wheat Corn Barley

Japanese Grain ImportsJapanese Grain Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley Sorghum