2006 energy round table canada, an emerging energy superpower september 26 th, 2006 calgary, alberta...
TRANSCRIPT
2006 Energy Round TableCanada, an Emerging Energy Superpower
September 26th, 2006 Calgary, Alberta
Ian D. Anderson President
Kinder Morgan Canada
CANADA INC.CANADA INC.
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Overview
• Kinder Morgan Profile
• The Challenge, The Opportunity
• Kinder Morgan Canada as Part of the Solution
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This presentation contains forward looking statements, including these, within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The future results and securities values of Kinder Morgan Inc., Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. and Kinder Morgan Management, LLC (collectively known as “Kinder Morgan”) may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements contained throughout this presentation and in documents filed with the SEC. Many of the factors that will determine these results and values are beyond Kinder Morgan's ability to control or predict. These statements are necessarily based upon various assumptions involving judgments with respect to the future, including, among others, the ability to achieve synergies and revenue growth; national, international, regional and local economic, competitive and regulatory conditions and developments; technological developments; capital markets conditions; inflation rates; interest rates; the political and economic stability of oil producing nations; energy markets; weather conditions; environmental conditions; business and regulatory or legal decisions; the pace of deregulation of retail natural gas and electricity and certain agricultural products; the timing and success of business development efforts; terrorism; and other uncertainties. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement.
Forward Looking Statements
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Kinder Morgan Assets
2
Pacific
NorthernTransColorado
2 PacificCALNEV
KMCO2
2
2KMTP
KMTejasWink
SACROC
Yates7 5 2
22
Plantation
Cypress
NGPL
8
Central Florida4
2
2
2 43
2
2
3
2KMIGT
Trailblazer
3
Cochin
North
Express
Platte
CorridorTransMountain
2
Claytonville
2
2
3
NGPL (KMI)NGPL GAS STORAGE (KMI)
RETAIL GAS DISTRIBUTION (KMI)
GAS-FIRED POWER PLANTS (KMI)
PRODUCTS PIPELINES (KMP)
PRODUCTS PIPELINESTERMINALS (KMP)
TRANSMIX FACILITIES (KMP)NATURAL GASPIPELINES (KMI-KMP)NATURAL GASSTORAGE (KMI-KMP)
NATURAL GASPROCESSING (KMI-KMP)
CO2 PIPELINES (KMP)
CO2 OIL FIELDS (KMP)
CRUDE OIL PIPELINES (KMP)
TERMINALS (KMP)
KM HEADQUARTERS
TERASEN GAS (KMI)PETROLEUM PIPELINES (KMI)
PETROLEUM PIPELINESTERMINALS (KMI)
(2,3,8) INDICATES NUMBER OFFACILITIES IN AREA
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KMP: Solid Asset Base Generates Stable Cash Flow
51% Texas Intrastate 49% Rockies Little incidental commodity risk
30% CO2 transport and sales 70% oil production related Expected production hedged (b):
2006=88%2007=75%2008=54%
(a) Budgeted 2006 distributable cash flow before G&A and interest(b) Net equity production, approved plus identified potential projects. Includes heavier NGL components (C4+). (c) Terminals are not FERC regulated except portion of CalNev.
47% Liquids, 53% Bulk Geographic and product diversity 3-4 year average contract life
Refinery hub to populationcenter strategy
68% Pipelines 27% Associated Terminals (c)
5% Transmix No commodity price risk
ProductsPipelines
27%
Natural GasPipelines
25%
CO2
29%
Terminals19%
KMP2006 DCF (a)
Terminals
Products Pipelines
Natural Gas Pipelines
CO2
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KMI: Solid Asset Base Generates Stable Income
(a) Budgeted 2006 segment earnings before G&A and interest.(b) Includes: (i) general partner interest, (ii) earnings from ~ 20 million KMP units & (iii) earnings from ~ 10 million KMR shares.
FERC regulated with 3-year average contract life
Primary customers are Illinois local distribution companies
Little incidental commodity risk
General partner interest earns incentive distributions
Owns 13% of total limited partner units
Investment in KMP (b) NGPL
Natural gas distribution service Serve ~ 890,000 customers in
British Columbia Serve ~ 245,000 customers in
Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska
RetailKM Canada
Three major systems connected to Canadian Oilsands
Majority of capacity committed under long-term contracts
NGPL30%
KM Canada7%
KMP39%
Retail GasDistribution
23%
Other1%
KMI2006 Segment Income (a)
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(a) Source: CAAP May 2006 Canadian Crude Production and Supply Forecast
(b) Source: NEB 2003 study “Canada’s Energy Future, Scenarios for Supply and Demand to 2025”.
(c) Source: CAAP May 2006 Canadian Crude Production and Supply Forecast
345315
270
130 115 100 100 93
40 32
(reserves billions of barrels)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Oil SandsPentanes/CondensateConventional HeavyConventional Light/Med
(MBbl/d)
Western Canadian Crude Production (a)
1 MMBbl/dOil Sands
3.5 MMBbl/d
The Opportunity – Oil Sands Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ven
e-zu
ela
Can
ada
Sau
diA
rabi
a
Rus
sia
Iraq
UA
E
Kuw
ait
Iran
US
A
Liby
a
BitumenOil
World Oil & Bitumen Reserves – Top 10 (b)
Export Pipeline Capacity (c)
Enbridge**
Trans MountainExpress
Others
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Export Pipeline Capacity
Western Canada Demand
Western CanadianProduction*
New CapacityRequired
(MBbl/d)
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(MBbl/d)Total
RefineryInputs
%Imports
CanadianImports as% of Total
Imports
PADD I (E. Coast) 1,597 97% 13%
PADD II (Midwest) 3,288 89% 36%
PADD III (G. Coast) 7,438 59% ---
PADD IV (Rockies) 556 46% 100%
PADD V (W. Coast) 2,596 36% 9%
Total 15,475 65% 16%
U.S. Crude Refinery Inputs by PADD – 2004 (a)
The Opportunity – U.S. a Significant Importer of Crude
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
E
2009
E
AN
S C
rude
Oil
Pro
duct
ion
(MB
bl/d
)
Canadian crude through
Trans Mountain16% (100 MBbl/d)
Other84% (615 MBbl/d)
Alaskan North Slope Production Declining (b)
Washington State Refinery Capacity (c)
(a) Source: EIA “Petroleum Supply Annual 2004”.(b) Source: CIBC Jan-2006 industry report “Oil Pipeline Expansion: Refiners
in Traditional Markets Girding for Expanded Diet of Canadian Heavy”.(c) Washington state crude oil refinery capacity. Sources: DBRS Oct-2005
industry report “The Canadian Oilsands”, Company reports.
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Kinder Morgan Canada
CorridorCorridor
Express/Platte
Express/Platte
Trans MountainTrans Mountain
Operator of 3 Oil Pipelines
Trans Mountain is sole Pipeline from Alberta to West Coast
Express is largest line to PADD IV
Platte serves large PADD II market
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Kinder Morgan Canada
Trans MountainTrans Mountain
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COOK INLET
COASTAL
LA Basin
ANS
OCS
SJV
West Coast Crude Market Fundamentals
Production Forecast
Source: EAI Inc.
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Total West Coast Crude Demand
Alaska
OCS
San Joaquin Valley
CoastalLa Basin
Imports
Balance Outlook
West Coast Crude Market Fundamentals
Source: EAI Inc.
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Trans Mountain Volume History
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-05
Jan-
06
Apr-0
6
thou
sand
bb/
d
TMPL Throughput
10% Heavy
0% Heavy
Denotes Apportionment
14__________________________
TMX Plan – 1.1 Million bpd
1,100 kbpd
400 kbpd
700 kbpd
Existing: 225,000 bpd (heavy)
TMX-1: 2007/08 Pump Station Expansion – 35,000 bpd Anchor Loop – 40,000 bpd
Southern Expansion: 2010/11 TMX-2 – 100,000 bpd TMX-3 – 300,000 bpd
Northern Expansion TMX-North – 400,000 bpd
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TMX Value Proposition
• Market Fundamentals Support an Expanded Western Option– Traditional market area is saturated/ Market clearing to support netbacks
– Washington State refinery conversions
– California opportunity• limited Canadian penetration of PADD V market to date
• declining ANS/domestic production – Asian market option
– Increasing value of holding options in this market environment
• TMX Benefits– Established operations & infrastructure
– Connected to existing and expanding markets
– Staged expansion able to match timing of market needs – risk reduction
– Export option (also staged to match market needs)• Westridge dock expansion• Northern Leg
• Additional Value Added Services– Blending and storage at Edmonton, Sumas, Burnaby
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Corridor Expansion
System – 285 mile 24” x 12” line between Muskeg River Mine and Scotford Upgrader 27 mile crude and supplemental line
Capacity – 155,000 bpd of dry bitumen from mine to upgrader 71,000 bpd diluent back to mine
Shippers – 100% contracted to Athabasca Oil Sands
Planned Expansion – new 42” line, up to 1.0 Mil bpd In service 2009
Future Plans – more oilsands take away capacity to match production
Muskeg River Mine
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Kinder Morgan Canada
Express/Platte
Express/Platte
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050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700
MB
PD
Cndn Imports 128 125 166 218 256 245 237 273 284 279 283 299 308 320 335 353 372 391 409 426 445
Dmst Imports 25 30 43 13 13 13 13 13 15 17 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Core Prod 350 329 323 294 268 270 269 261 261 288 307 300 286 275 264 251 238 227 217 207 196
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Canadian ImportsCanadian Imports
RM Core ProductionRM Core Production
Refinery Runs and Domestic Exports
Assumes no refinery closures and no major expansions
PADD IV Market Fundamentals
Source EAI 2006
Supply – Demand Framework
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Express – Platte Pipeline Systems
Express Pipeline: Expanded to 280,000 bpd in April 2005 Underpinned through 235,000 bpd of
firm contracts expiring in 2012/2015 Ownership: 1/3 KMI, 1/3 Ontario
Teachers, 1/3 OMERS Talking about Expansion with
Refineries in PADD IV
Platte Pipeline: 165,000 bpd capacity: Casper to
Guernsey 143,000 bpd capacity: ex-Guernsey Increased local production plus
Canadian crude wishing to access PADD II has created proration issues at Guernsey
Proration policies currently before the FERC
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Gulf Coast Market Access
Fort McMurray
Edmonton Cold Lake
Vancouver
Anacortes
Guernsey
Salt Lake CityDenver
Cushing
ChicagoDetroit/Toledo
WoodRiver
Exp
ress
Platte
Ran
gelan
d
Eas
tern
Co
rrid
or
Pacific
Co
rrid
or
Enbridge
TMPL
Midland
Patoka
Hardisty
Houston
Enbridge
Koch
Freeport
Corpus Christi
Jayhawk
Frontier
Casper
Billings
PADD IV
PADD III
PADD II
Bo
w R
iv er
Southern Access
Spearhead
Cenex
Express Routing
Bullet Line
Patoka South
• Express Routing:
• Existing KMC RoW to Casper/Guernsey
• Satisfy incremental Rockies, Denver, Panhandle supply needs
• Bullet Line:
• Existing KM RoW in OK/TX
• 36” line in-service early 2010
• Patoka South:
• Supply from expanded Express/Platte and others
• Existing KM RoW/PL assets in IL/ MO/AR/TX
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Kinder Morgan Canada Terminals
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Terminals Activities – Alberta
Edmonton North Forty Project:
2 million bbls capacity in 9 tanks Connectivity to major feeder
streams in area + Trans Mountain and Enbridge
Facility now fully underpinned with long-term contracts
In service April 2007 KM’s first major terminal project
in Canada
Hardisty:
Land recently acquired to allow construction of 3 million barrels of heated storage
Commercial underpinning now being sought
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The Big Picture – Developing a CO2 Market
1. Based on CO2 captured from industrial processes
2. Dual Objectives• EOR (Commercial)• Storage (compliance)
3. Pipeline infrastructure to accommodate all needs
4. Complex/ New Systems
5. The Enormity of the Task
Sequestration
EOR Storage
Carbon CaptureIndustrial Source
TransportationInfrastructure
Meter/ Monitor Verify (MMV)
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Comparative Market Perspective
ITEM PERMIAN BASIN
ALBERTA
Emissions Issue None at this time Kyoto Goal -
4 Bcf/d GHG reduction
CO2 Demand 1.4 bcf/d 400-500 mmcf/d (est.)
OOIP (bn bbls) 90+ 20
CO2 Pipelines (mi.)
2,000 None
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CO2 - EOR: Major Capital Commitment& Extensive Expertise
CO2 -EOR Operations (SACROC) Snyder Gas Plant
CO2 Supply OperationMcElmo Dome CO2 Plant
Kinder Morgan • Well over $US 1.0 billion in capital• 20+ years experience• Over 1000 experienced staff• Continuing excellence (new p/l, new facilities, $US 200 million capital expansion• Active DOE sequestration role
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CO2 Infrastructure
Phase I: • Heartland hub• Mainline• SW lateral• NW lateral
[could be stagedin sequence}
Phase II: • Ft. McMurray line• If sequestration
need or new dilbit
Phase III: • Init. Design, could
route Red Deer• Depends on Brooks/
Taber and immisc
Current engineering route estimate. Pending final design/ procurement only.
CANADA INC.CANADA INC.