2005 lower fraser valley air emissions inventory & forecast … · 2014. 9. 2. · di cenzo,...

2005 Lower Fraser Valley

Air Emissions Inventory & Forecast and Backcast

December 2007

Acknowledgements The cooperation and assistance of the following individuals and organizations is gratefully acknowledged: • Tony Wakelin, Michael Rensing, Jeremy Lawrence, Duncan Ferguson, Lloyd Phillips, Chris Procter,

Steffanie Warriner, and other staff – BC Ministry of Environment • Mark Robbins, David Poon, and other staff – BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands • Jennifer Bresciani – Office of the Fire Commissioner, Emergency Management BC • Becky Everett – BC Cattlemen’s Association • Ida Thom – BC Ministry of Provincial Revenue • Dave O’Neil – BC Statistics • Alicja Rudzki and other staff – BC Ferries • Gary Way, Carol Duffy, Chris Wilcock and other staff – Terasen Gas • Clark Lim, Steve Stewart, Dave Gourley, Ken Miller, Clive Rock – South Coast BC Transportation

Authority • Susan Floro, Hardeep Mehrotara, Chris Boxall – Insurance Corporation of British Columbia • Hugh Sloan and other staff – Fraser Valley Regional District • Dr. Shabtai Bittman – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada • Lynn Nadon, Andrew Green, Richard Holt, June Yoo Rifkin, Martin Mullan, Pascal Bellavance, Colin

di Cenzo, Henry Quon, Kelli Dawson, Cristina Dumitras, Brett Taylor, Mahesh Kashyap, John Ayres, Marc Deslaurier, Yann Guilbault, Martin Jeanson, Diep Le , Michelle Raizenne and other staff – Environment Canada

• Elham Azarafshar, Hertsel Labib – Natural Resources Canada • Gail King and other staff – Northwest Clean Air Agency • Craig Harvey, Larry Landman, David Brzezinski and other staff – United States Environmental

Protection Agency • Sally Otterson and other staff – Washington State Department of Ecology • John Skowronski – Canadian Petroleum Products Institute • Kelvin Campbell, Maria Furberg, Nancy Chan and other staff – RWDI Consulting Engineers &

Scientists • Rick Bryant, Garth McSween – Chamber of Shipping of British Columbia • Philip Nelson, Mitch Hughes and other staff – Council of Marine Carriers of BC • BC Marine Vessel Air Quality Working Group • Trudi Trask – Vancouver International Airport Authority • Christine Rigby – Vancouver Port Authority

and the countless commercial/industrial facilities, utilities, crown corporations, government agencies and other organizations and stakeholders who provided the necessary data to carry out this project. Funding assistance provided by the Fraser Valley Regional District in carrying out this study is gratefully acknowledged. Autumn leaves cover photograph: Neil Guernsey Tugboat and fireplace cover photographs: Laurie Bates-Frymel Additional photographs: Getty Images

Executive Summary The 2005 emission inventory provides information on the types of air emission sources in the Metropolitan Vancouver region, their location and the amount of air contaminants emitted, for the year 2005. The emission inventory is an essential tool for air quality management in the region. Another essential tool is a forecast and backcast of emissions. Emission backcasting involves updating previous emission inventories using current methodologies so that they can be reliably compared with the 2005 inventory. Emission forecasting is the process of estimating future emissions by projecting changes in activity (growth or decline) combined with changes in emission rates or controls. The forecast allows for an assessment of future air emission levels and impacts of emission reduction measures. Together, the 2005 inventory and the forecast and backcast data can be used to identify where significant progress has been made in reducing emissions under the current Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) for the Metro Vancouver area, and where additional action is warranted. This information is also essential for the development of an Air Quality Management Strategy for the entire Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) international airshed. The emission inventory forecast and backcast is also used by other governments and academic researchers in regional and transboundary air quality modelling and in the development of provincial and national emission control programs. This report provides the results of the 2005 LFV airshed emission inventory and emission forecast and backcast. The backcast includes emission inventories for 1990, 1995 and 2000, while the forecast presents emissions to the year 2030, in five-year increments. Study Area The LFV airshed encompasses virtually the entire Metro Vancouver area, the south-western portion of the Fraser Valley Regional District

(FVRD) and Whatcom County in the State of Washington. Common Air Contaminants The common air contaminants addressed in this inventory include: • Carbon monoxide (CO) • Nitrogen oxides (NOx) • Total particulate matter (PM)1 • Sulphur oxides (SOx) • Volatile organic compounds (VOC) Ammonia (NH3) is also included, due to its role in secondary particulate matter formation. An overview of the health effects of each contaminant is provided in the next section. Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gases are believed to contribute to global climate change, a shifting of the world’s climate systems to wider extremes and variability. Greenhouse gases included in the emission inventory are: • Carbon dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) Sources of Emissions The 2005 emission inventory, forecast and backcast cover three main categories of emissions: point, area, and mobile sources: • Point Sources - This category represents

emissions from industrial facilities or utilities operating under an air discharge permit or regulation issued by Metro Vancouver or the BC Ministry of Environment (BCMOE), or under a Solid Waste Management Plan authorized by BCMOE, or under the jurisdiction of the Washington State

1 Total particulate matter is made up of particles of all sizes, including the two most familiar size fractions, namely PM10 and PM2.5. PM10, or inhalable particulate matter, refers to particles smaller than 10 microns and PM2.5, or fine particulate matter, refers to particles smaller than 2.5 microns.

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory S - 1

& Forecast and Backcast

Department of Ecology or Northwest Clean Air Agency.

• Area Sources - This category represents

emissions from light industrial, residential, commercial and institutional sources which are normally not required to obtain an air discharge permit.

• Mobile Sources - This category represents emissions primarily from mobile sources involved in the transportation of people and goods, including passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles, other mobile sources, including aircraft, marine vessels, railways, and non-road engines such as construction and lawn and garden equipment.

Potential Health Effects of Common Air Contaminants Adverse health effects related to elevated exposure to common air contaminants can include the following: Carbon Monoxide (CO) CO can reduce the ability of the blood to carry oxygen to the heart, brain, and other tissues, resulting in impaired performance, respiratory failure, and death. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) NOx can irritate the lungs and lower resistance to respiratory infections. Under certain weather conditions, NOx can also react with other chemicals to form ground-level ozone, acid rain, and secondary particulate matter. Particulate Matter less than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) PM2.5 can be breathed deep into the lungs and contain substances that are particularly harmful

to human health. Scientific studies have linked these small particles to premature death, aggravated asthma, acute respiratory symptoms, and chronic bronchitis. As well, they scatter light in the atmosphere and reduce visibility. Sulphur Oxides (SOx) SOx can cause health effects such as breathing difficulties, aggravation of existing respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. SOx can also interact with other compounds in the air to form secondary particulate matter and can lead to acid rain. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Some VOCs can have a potential carcinogenic or toxic effect and can also react with NOx in the atmosphere to form ground-level ozone, a key constituent of smog.

Scope of the 2005 Emission Inventory and Forecast and Backcast The forecast and backcast of the 2005 emission inventory was performed under different sets of assumptions for three scenarios: the moderate scenario, the high scenario and the low scenario. The moderate scenario was based on the best available information, representing the most realistic forecast values. It utilized projections from numerous sources on variables such as change in population, economy, kilometres travelled, fuel consumed and future growth. The moderate scenario also incorporated all current

and committed federal, provincial and regional activities and measures (e.g. federal government regulations, BC proposed greenhouse gas tailpipe emission standards (2009-2016), Metro Vancouver proposed Boiler and Heater Regulation, etc.) Depending on the level of uncertainty and what details were available during this study, some of the planned emission reduction measures were included in a low or high scenario, rather than in the moderate scenario. These scenarios provide high and low “bracketing” around the moderate scenario and allow for an analysis of the impact on emissions from factors such as growth in population and economy.



Emission estimates and forecasts are only as good as the data and best methodology available at the time. Part of the effort involved in emissions inventories is to seek ways to improve the available data and methodology. In 2005, emission estimates for some sectors have been revised to incorporate updated methodology and data, resulting in substantial changes to the emission estimates. It is important to note for these sectors, these emission changes are due mainly to updated methodology and/or data, which include: • United States Environmental Protection

Agency methodology for calculating fugitive dust emissions associated with the handling and storage of bulk commodities

• Updated methodology for calculating fugitive dust from the construction and demolition sector

• Updated data for the solvent evaporation sector

• A year-long comprehensive set of surveyed data and updated methodology used in preparing the ocean-going marine vessel emission inventory

Summary of Individual Contaminants and their Emission Trends The results of the 2005 emission inventory for some of the individual contaminants and their emission trends are summarized below. Note that more detail is contained in the main body and appendix of this report, including emission estimates by source and region. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) NOx emissions decline from 1990 through to 2020, and then level off. The decline in emissions from light-duty vehicles after 1990 is largely due to improved vehicle emission standards and AirCare vehicle inspection and maintenance program. Mobile sources are the main contributors of NOx emissions. Until 2010, cars and light trucks are the main source of NOx. By 2015, marine vessels are projected to become a dominant source of NOx emissions. The anticipated increase in marine vessel emissions is due to the combined effects of the projected growth in shipping and the fact that emission reduction measures for this sector are

not at the same stage of development as those for some other major sectors, such as onroad vehicles.

-

30

60

90

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030N

Ox

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr) Point Sources

Area SourcesLight-Duty VehiclesMarineOther Mobile Sources

Light-Duty Vehicles

24%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

11%

Marine14%

Non-Road17%

Heating10%

All Other Sources

24%

2005 NOx Emissions61,000 tonnes

Fine Particulate (PM2.5) Since 1990, PM2.5 emissions have decreased steadily. Reductions from the petroleum refining and wood products sectors coupled with

-

4

8

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBurningHeatingConstruction DustOther Area SourcesMobile Sources

PM

2.5

excl

udin

g ro

ad d

ust (

kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Wood Products5%

Burning15%

Heating20%

All Other Sources31% Light & Heavy-Duty

Vehicles4%

Marine7%

Non-Road12%

Construction6%

2005 PM2.5 Emissions7,000 tonnes

reductions from light and heavy-duty vehicles have driven the declining trend. However, the



forecast of PM2.5 emissions shows a steadily increasing trend from 2010 to 2030. Heating (e.g. buildings), burning, and marine vessels are anticipated to be the main sources of PM2.5 emissions in the future. Sulphur Oxides (SOx) SOx emissions declined from 1990 to 2005, largely as a result of reduced sulphur in onroad fuels, the shutdown of several Metro Vancouver refineries, and reduced emissions from the cement plants and primary metals industry (aluminum smelter in Whatcom County).

A projected increase in SOx emissions is mainly due to increased emissions from marine vessels. SOx emissions are directly related to fuel consumption and the sulphur content of the fuel. Hence, increased activity in the marine sector, combined with unchanging fuel sulphur contents, results in steadily increasing marine SOx emissions. Other main contributors of SOx emissions in the future include point sources such as the petroleum refining and primary metals industries. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) VOC emissions declined between 1990-2005. With the steady decline in VOC emissions from cars and light trucks between 1990-2015, due to improved vehicle emission regulations, natural

sources like trees and vegetation have become the main contributor of VOC emissions.

-

30

60

90

120

150

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

VO

C (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point SourcesNatural SourcesSolvent EvaporationOther Area Sources

Light-Duty VehiclesOther Mobile Sources

Agricultural7%

Natural Sources33%

Solvent Evaporation20%

Light-Duty Vehicles17%

Non-Road11%

All Other Sources12% 2005 VOC Emissions

108,000 tonnes

-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SO

x (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point Sources

Area SourcesMarine

Other Mobile Sources

Primary Metal Industries

16%

Marine47%

All Other Sources11%

Petroleum Products23%

Non-Road3%

2005 SOx Emissions10,300 tonnes

In 2005, the solvent evaporation sector (e.g. industrial, commercial, and consumer products like paints, stains, varnishes, solvents, and thinners) became the main anthropogenic source of VOCs, also overtaking cars and light trucks. In the future, solvent use is projected to still be a significant source of VOC emissions, even with the federal government’s proposed regulations for volatile organic compounds in consumer and commercial products in place. Ammonia (NH3) NH3, along with SOx, NOx and some VOCs, can react in the atmosphere to form secondary PM2.5, thus contributing to visibility impairment and the health effects associated with PM2.5. NH3 emissions are projected to steadily increase from 1990 to 2030 due to an increase in light-duty vehicle use and agricultural activity. Area sources, in particular agricultural sources (e.g. manure handling and storage, and fertilizer application) contribute the largest amount of NH3 in the region for all years. Other sources such as cars and light trucks and miscellaneous sources (e.g. pets, humans, refrigerants) play smaller roles.



-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NH3

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Point SourcesAgriculturalOther Area SourcesMobile Sources



Agricultural76%

2005 NH3 Emissions18,500 tonnes

Smog-Forming Pollutants In order to provide a simplified, aggregate indicator of where “emissions” may be heading, we have summed the emissions of the principal “smog-forming pollutants”, namely NOx, VOC, PM2.5, SOx and NH3. These are the major contributors to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter, and to the degradation of visibility. Overall, the trend in smog-forming pollutant emissions decreases until 2020, after which emissions begin to rise. In 2030, solvent evaporation is projected to be the largest source, followed by agricultural sources and marine vessels. The predominance of these sources is due to a projected corresponding change in activity in these sectors, as well as emission reductions resulting from regulations in other sectors such as onroad motor vehicles and non-road engines.

-

100

200

300

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point Sources

Area Sources

Light-Duty Vehicles


Sm

og -

Form

ing

Pol

luta

nts

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Agricultural11%

Natural Sources17%

Solvent Evaporation11%

Non-Road12%


Marine7%


2005 Smog Forming Pollutants Emissions205,000 tonnes

-

100

200

300

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Smog

-For

min

g Po

lluta

nt (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) GHGs were highest in 2000, due in part to higher emissions from an electric power generation plant in Metro Vancouver. GHG emissions from this facility were significantly lower in 2005 and projected to remain low in the future due to decreased operations. GHG emissions in the airshed are projected to increase between 2010-2030, primarily due to increasing population and economic activity. In 2005, light-duty vehicles and heating were the major sources of GHG emissions. Emissions from heating are projected to continue their climb to 2030, while GHG emissions from light-



duty vehicles are projected to start declining due to the proposed BC tailpipe standards. The petroleum refining and cement industries, heavy trucks and buses, as well as other non-road equipment contribute significant amounts of GHG emissions as well. Canada’s Kyoto Protocol commitments call for a 6% reduction in 1990 GHG emissions by the 2008 - 2012 period. By contrast, 2010 GHG emissions are projected to be about 22% above 1990 levels in Metro Vancouver and FVRD. In November 2007, the BC Government adopted province-wide GHG reduction targets of 33% (from 2007) by 2020. By contrast, 2020 GHG emissions in Metro Vancouver and FVRD are projected to be 6% above 2005 levels. The development of regional GHG emission reduction strategies is currently underway to supplement other government efforts and curb this increasing trend in GHG emissions.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point SourcesHeatingOther Area SourcesLight-Duty VehiclesOther Mobile Sources

Petroleum Products9%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles6%

Non-Road5%


Heating24%

Electric Power Generation

4%

Non-metallic Mineral Industries

9%


2005 GHG Emissions22,800,000 tonnes

Although GHG emissions are steadily increasing, it is interesting to note that per capita GHG emissions are projected to decrease: from about 7 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 6 tonnes in 2030 for Metro Vancouver; from about 9 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 6.4 tonnes in 2030 for FVRD; and from about 28 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 19 tonnes in 2030 for

Whatcom County. LFV per capita GHG emissions are about 9 tonnes in 2005 and projected to be about 7 tonnes in 2030.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Summary of Emissions by Political Region Emissions of smog-forming pollutants, greenhouse gases, and population, for each of the political regions are shown below. In 2005, Metro Vancouver, FVRD, and Whatcom County make up 83%, 10%, and 7% of the LFV population, respectively. The larger than expected contribution of Whatcom County to airshed emissions (relative to population) can be explained by the existence of more heavy industry in that area. This fact underscores the importance of air quality planning on an “international” basis in the airshed.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SmogForming

Pollutants

GreenhouseGases

Population

Whatcom CountyFVRDMetro Vancouver



Conclusions The emission inventory and associated trend analysis is an essential tool in Metro Vancouver’s integrated air quality management program. Together, they allow for: • identification of where action is warranted in

the airshed, both today and in the future; • assessment of where significant progress

has been made in reducing emissions; and • projection of future air emission levels and

anticipated impacts of emission reduction measures.

An analysis of the emission inventory forecast results indicates a few key findings: Smog-Forming Pollutants • In 2005, light-duty vehicles were still the

largest source of smog-forming pollutants, followed by non-road equipment, solvent evaporation and marine vessels.

• Overall, smog-forming pollutants show a

declining trend until 2020, after which emissions begin to rise.

• New and existing federal emission

standards are expected to reduce smog-forming pollutant emissions from motor vehicles and non-road engines.

• In 2030, solvent evaporation is projected to

be the largest source of smog-forming pollutants, followed by agricultural sources and marine vessels. The predominance of these sources is due to a projected corresponding change in activity in these sectors, as well as a decrease in emissions from onroad motor vehicles and non-road engines as a result of regulations.

• NOx emissions are projected to decrease

continuously over the 25 year forecast period, primarily due to strict emission standards for light and heavy duty vehicles and non-road engines and equipment. Marine vessels remain as the only major source of NOx with projected increase in emissions.

• There was a substantial decrease in PM2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2005, due to reduced emissions from mobile and point sources. However, PM2.5 emissions are projected to increase between 2010 and 2030 due to expected increases in the marine sector and area sources (e.g. heating, construction, burning) driven by growth in population and economic activity.

• SOx emissions declined substantially

between 2000 and 2005. This was due to improved emissions control at refineries (both in Metro Vancouver and Whatcom County) and reduced production at the smelter in Whatcom County. Marine vessels became the most significant source of SOx emissions in 2005, and in the absence of new measures, their share is projected to increase substantially.

• VOC emissions show a declining trend until

2010, after which the emissions are projected to increase due to increase in solvent evaporation.

• NH3 emissions are projected to continue to

increase in the future. Agricultural activities such as manure handling and fertilizer application are the major contributors to the ammonia emissions in the LFV.

Greenhouse Gases • In Metro Vancouver and FVRD, on-road

vehicles and heating (e.g. buildings) are the two major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Two cement plants also contribute significantly to the GHG emissions in Metro Vancouver. In Whatcom County, industrial sources such as refineries, the aluminum smelter and power plants are the most significant sources of GHG emissions.

• With the implementation of the proposed

tail-pipe standards, emissions from light-duty vehicles are projected to decline, with heating becoming the number one source of GHG emissions. GHG emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, non-road engines, marine vessels and aircraft are also projected to increase steadily.



• GHG emissions have increased steadily between 1990 and 2000 in Metro Vancouver. In 2005, there was some reduction in GHG emissions due to reduced production at an electric power generation plant in Metro Vancouver and some reduction in fuel consumption (i.e. natural gas and gasoline) due to rising fuel prices.

• GHG emissions in both Metro Vancouver

and the FVRD have increased steadily from 1990 to 2010 – the time period for commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. While the Kyoto target called for a national reduction of six percent from 1990 levels by 2008 – 2012, GHG emissions in Metro Vancouver and FVRD will have risen by 22% over that time frame.

• In BC, the Kyoto targets have been

superceded by a provincial GHG target of 33% reduction (from 2007 levels) by 2020. With the implementation of the planned federal and provincial measures, the GHG

emissions in the Canadian LFV are projected to hold fairly steady at 2007 levels. Therefore, there is a need for additional measures to be implemented in Metro Vancouver and FVRD in order to meet the Provincial GHG target of 33% reduction by 2020.

Information from this emission forecast may play an important role in developing and implementing emission reduction measures for Metro Vancouver. Additionally, as major GHG emission sources such as heating (e.g. buildings) and others continue to increase their activity, and as we move into an era of GHG regulations under Federal and Provincial initiatives, information from this emissions forecast will also be important in assessing what levels of GHG emission reductions may be feasible for this region.



Table of Contents Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………………………………... S-1 Table of Contents ………………………………………………………………………………………........... i List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………............... iii List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………………………................ iv List of Acronyms ………………………………………………………………………………………........... v 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1

What is an Emission Inventory?.......................................................................................... 1 What is the Forecast and Backcast of the 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Emission Inventory?1 What is the Study Area? ..................................................................................................... 1 How are Emission Inventories and Forecasts and Backcasts Used?................................. 3

Metro Vancouver............................................................................................................. 3 Fraser Valley Regional District ....................................................................................... 3 Whatcom County ............................................................................................................ 3

Who Developed the 2005 LFV Airshed Emission Inventory and Forecast/Backcast? ....... 3 What Basic Assumptions Were Used in the Emissions Forecast and Backcast? .............. 3 What Air Contaminants are Included in the Emission Inventory and Forecast/Backcast?. 4

Common Air Contaminants and Ammonia ..................................................................... 4 Greenhouse Gases......................................................................................................... 6

What are the Sources of Emissions?.................................................................................. 6 Point Sources.................................................................................................................. 6 Area Sources .................................................................................................................. 7 Mobile Sources ............................................................................................................... 8

2. Results ........................................................................................................................... 8

2.1 Common Air Contaminants (CACs) ..................................................................... 10 Principal Sources of 2005 Carbon Monoxide Emissions.............................................. 10 Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions........................................................................ 11 Principal Sources of 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions .................................................. 12 Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions ............................................................................ 13 Principal Sources of 2005 Total Particulate Matter, PM10, and PM2.5 Emissions ......... 14 Trends in Total Particulate Matter and Inhalable and Fine Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5) Emissions........................................................................................................... 16 Road Dust ..................................................................................................................... 18 Principal Sources of 2005 Sulphur Oxide Emissions ................................................... 20 Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions.............................................................................. 21 Principal Sources of 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions .............................. 22 Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions ........................................................ 23 Principal Sources of 2005 Ammonia Emissions ........................................................... 24 Trends in Ammonia Emissions ..................................................................................... 25 Principal Sources of 2005 Smog-Forming Pollutants ................................................... 26 Trends in Smog Forming Pollutant Emissions.............................................................. 27

2.2 Greenhouse Gases .............................................................................................. 28 Principal Sources of 2005 Carbon Dioxide Emissions ................................................. 28 Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions............................................................................ 29 Principal Sources of 2005 Methane Emissions ............................................................ 30 Trends in Methane Emissions ...................................................................................... 31 Principal Sources of 2005 Nitrous Oxide Emissions .................................................... 32 Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions............................................................................... 33 Principal Sources of 2005 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions...................................... 34

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory & Forecast and Backcast

i

Trends in Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions................................................................ 35 Summary of Emissions by Political Region .................................................................. 36

3. Conclusions – The Role of the Emission Inventory / Forecast and Backcast in Air Quality Management ........................................................................................................... 36

Smog-Forming Pollutants ............................................................................................. 36 Greenhouse Gases....................................................................................................... 37

4. References................................................................................................................... 38 Appendix A: Summary of 2005 Emissions.................................................................A - 1 Appendix B: Summary of Emissions (1990 – 2030) ..................................................B - 1


ii

List of Figures Figure 1: Lower Fraser Valley Airshed Study Area ................................................................. 2 Figure 2: 2005 Carbon Monoxide Emissions ........................................................................ 10 Figure 3: Trends in LFV Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Source ........................................ 11 Figure 4: Trends in LFV Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Region ........................................ 11 Figure 5: 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions............................................................................. 12 Figure 6: Trends in LFV Nitrogen Oxide Emissions by Source............................................. 13 Figure 7: Trends in LFV Nitrogen Oxide Emissions by Region............................................. 13 Figure 8: 2005 Total Particulate Matter Emissions ............................................................... 14 Figure 9: 2005 PM10 Emissions............................................................................................. 15 Figure 10: 2005 PM2.5 Emissions .......................................................................................... 15 Figure 11: Trends in LFV Total Particulate Matter Emissions by Source ............................. 16 Figure 12: Trends in LFV PM10 Emissions by Source........................................................... 16 Figure 13: Trends in LFV PM2.5 Emissions by Source .......................................................... 16 Figure 14: Trends in LFV Total Particulate Matter by Region ............................................... 17 Figure 15: Trends in LFV PM10 by Region ............................................................................ 17 Figure 16: Trends in LFV PM2.5 by Region............................................................................ 17 Figure 17: Trends in LFV Road Dust Emissions ................................................................... 18 Figure 18: 2005 Sulphur Oxide Emissions ............................................................................ 20 Figure 19: Trends in LFV Sulphur Oxide Emissions by Source............................................ 21 Figure 20: Trends in LFV Sulphur Oxide Emissions by Region............................................ 21 Figure 21: 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions....................................................... 22 Figure 22: Trends in LFV VOC Emissions by Source ........................................................... 23 Figure 23: Trends in LFV VOC Emissions by Region ........................................................... 23 Figure 24: 2005 Ammonia Emissions.................................................................................... 24 Figure 25: Trends in LFV Ammonia Emissions by Source.................................................... 25 Figure 26: Trends in LFV Ammonia Emissions by Region.................................................... 25 Figure 27: 2005 Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions............................................................ 26 Figure 28: Trends in LFV Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Source............................ 27 Figure 29: Trends in LFV Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Region............................ 27 Figure 30: 2005 Carbon Dioxide Emissions.......................................................................... 28 Figure 31: Trends in LFV Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Source.......................................... 29 Figure 32: Trends in LFV Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region.......................................... 29 Figure 33: 2005 Methane Emissions..................................................................................... 30 Figure 34: Trends in LFV Methane Emissions by Source..................................................... 31 Figure 35: Trends in LFV Methane Emissions by Region..................................................... 31 Figure 36: 2005 Nitrous Oxide Emissions ............................................................................. 32 Figure 37: Trends in LFV Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Source............................................. 33 Figure 38: Trends in LFV Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Region............................................. 33 Figure 39: 2005 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions .............................................................. 34 Figure 40: Trends in LFV GHG Emissions by Source........................................................... 35 Figure 41: Trends in LFV GHG Emissions by Region........................................................... 35 Figure 42: Smog Forming Pollutants, Greenhouse Gases, and Population by Region........ 36


iii

List of Tables Table 1: Principal Sources of Carbon Monoxide Emissions in 2005..................................... 10 Table 2: Principal Sources of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in 2005 ......................................... 12 Table 3: Principal Sources of Total Particulate Matter, PM10, and PM2.5 Emissions in 2005 15 Table 4: Principal Sources of Sulphur Oxide Emissions in 2005 .......................................... 20 Table 5: Principal Sources of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions in 2005..................... 22 Table 6: Principal Sources of Ammonia Emissions in 2005.................................................. 24 Table 7: Principal Sources of Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions in 2005 .......................... 26 Table 8: Principal Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2005 ........................................ 28 Table 9: Principal Sources of Methane Emissions in 2005 ................................................... 30 Table 10: Principal Sources of Nitrous Oxide Emissions in 2005 ......................................... 32 Table 11: Principal Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 ................................... 34 Table A: 2005 Emission Inventory Summary .....................................................................A - 2 Table B - 1: Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions..........................................................B - 2 Table B - 2: Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions ..............................................................B - 6 Table B - 3: Trends in Total Particulate Matter Emissions ...............................................B - 10 Table B - 4: Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions.............................B - 14 Table B - 5: Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions....................................B - 18 Table B - 6: Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions .............................................................B - 22 Table B - 7: Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions ........................................B - 26 Table B - 8: Trends in Ammonia Emissions .....................................................................B - 30 Table B - 9: Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions............................................B - 34 Table B - 10: Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions .........................................................B - 38 Table B - 11: Trends in Methane Emissions ....................................................................B - 42 Table B - 12: Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions.............................................................B - 46 Table B - 13: Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions.......................................................B - 50


iv

List of Acronyms AQMP Air Quality Management Plan BC British Columbia BCMOE British Columbia Ministry of Environment CACs common air contaminants: CO, VOC, NOx, SOx, PM CH4 methane CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide CO2E carbon dioxide equivalent FVRD Fraser Valley Regional District GHG greenhouse gas GWP Global Warming Potential - relative measure of heat-trapping effect.

Methane has a GWP of 21 compared to carbon dioxide, while nitrous oxide’s GWP is 310.

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LFV Lower Fraser Valley; see Section 1 NH3 ammonia NO2 nitrogen dioxide NOx nitrogen oxides N2O nitrous oxide PM total particulate matter, also referred to as TSP, total suspended particulate PM10 inhalable particulate matter, particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter PM2.5 fine particulate matter, particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter SO2 sulphur dioxide SO4 sulphate SOx sulphur oxides VOC volatile organic compounds


v

1. Introduction

What is an Emission Inventory? An emission inventory is a listing of all sources of air pollution within a defined region. It provides information on the types of emission sources in the Metropolitan Vancouver region, their location and the amount of air contaminants emitted, for a given time frame. The emission inventory is an essential tool for air quality management planning in the region.

What is the Forecast and Backcast of the 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Emission Inventory? Another essential tool in the air quality planning process is a forecast and backcast of emissions. Emission backcasting involves revisiting previous emission inventories and updating them for consistency with the current year inventory in terms of methodology and study area. This allows for an equitable analysis of emission trends. Emission forecasting is the process of estimating future emissions by projecting changes in activity (growth or decline) combined with changes in emission rates or controls. These changes could be influenced by technological advances, environmental regulations, age or deterioration, fuel formulations or other factors. The forecast allows for an assessment of future air emission levels and impacts of emission reduction measures.

Together, the 2005 inventory and the forecast and backcast data can be used to identify where significant progress has been made in reducing emissions and where additional action is warranted. This information is also essential for the development of an Air Quality Management Strategy for the entire Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) airshed. This report provides the results of the 2005 Lower Fraser Valley airshed

emission inventory, as well as the forecast and backcast of the 2005 emission inventory. The backcast includes emission inventories for 1990, 1995 and 2000, while the forecast presents emissions to the year 2030, in five-year increments.

What is the Study Area? The 2005 emission inventory and forecast and backcast has been compiled for the Lower Fraser Valley area of British Columbia (BC), encompassing virtually the entire Metro Vancouver area (formerly known as the Greater Vancouver Regional District); the south-western portion of the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD); and Whatcom County in the State of Washington, which is representative of the United States portion of the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed. The cities and towns in Whatcom County include Bellingham, Blaine, Everson, Ferndale, Lynden, Nooksack, Sumas, plus numerous unincorporated communities. This inventory and the forecast and backcast include emissions for the entire Lower Fraser Valley International Airshed. In 2005, the international airshed had a combined population of about 2.6 million. The study area is shown in Figure 1.

A Transboundary View of the Past and the Future

One of the goals of the emission inventory and forecast and backcast is to harmonize the Metro Vancouver, FVRD and Whatcom County emissions data. It represents an attempt to provide a sense of the current and future state of air emissions on both sides of the Canada - United States boundary. The objective is to provide citizens, industry, and government agencies with information that can help them make better decisions to ensure the sustainability and liveability of this region that Canadians and Americans share.

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory

& Forecast and Backcast 1

Figure 1: Lower Fraser Valley Airshed Study Area


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How are Emission Inventories and Forecasts and Backcasts Used? Metro Vancouver The 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 emission inventories and forecasts served as benchmarks, a means by which emission reduction strategies were developed for air quality management planning processes. The GVRD Board adopted its first Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) in 1994, and a second plan in 2005. Based in part on those inventories, Metro Vancouver initiated the development of strategies aimed at reducing emissions of ground-level ozone precursors and particulate matter. Updating of the emission inventory provides an indication of progress towards meeting emission reduction targets in the AQMP. The forecast and backcast of the 2005 inventory is also a milestone in the current air quality management planning cycle for the post-2005 period. In addition to allowing for an assessment of where significant progress has already been made, it will help to identify the sectors where additional action is warranted, both now and in the future. Finally, Metro Vancouver provides the regional emission inventory and associated forecast and backcast for use by other governments and academic researchers in regional and transboundary air quality modeling and in the development of provincial and national emission control programs. Fraser Valley Regional District In the FVRD, emission inventory and forecast/backcast data may be used to review historical trends in air emissions and help in air quality management planning activities, such as providing a means of anticipating future problems, identifying potential control strategies, and assessing the impact of control strategies.

Whatcom County In the United States, emission inventory data are used to evaluate the status of existing air quality as related to air quality standards, assess air pollution problems, assess the effectiveness of air pollution policy, and to initiate changes as needed. Individual States may have their own specific inventory requirements, while at the federal level, requirements for emission estimates stem mainly from the United States Clean Air Act.

Who Developed the 2005 LFV Airshed Emission Inventory and Forecast/Backcast? The 2005 emission inventory and the forecast and backcast for the Canadian portion of the Airshed were prepared by Metro Vancouver, with the exception of the 2005 ocean-going vessels emissions inventory, where the preparation was led by the Chamber of Shipping of British Columbia (2007); and nonroad engine sector, which was prepared under contract (RWDI, 2007a). The 2005 Whatcom County emission inventory was also compiled under contract (RWDI, 2007b), with the backcast/forecast portion prepared by Metro Vancouver.

What Basic Assumptions Were Used in the Emissions Forecast and Backcast? The forecast and backcast of the 2005 emission inventory was performed under different sets of assumptions for three scenarios: the moderate scenario, the high scenario and the low scenario. The moderate scenario was based on the best available information, representing the most realistic forecast values. It utilized projections from numerous sources on variables such as change in population, economy, kilometres travelled, fuel consumed and future expansions. The moderate scenario also incorporated all current and committed federal, provincial and regional activities and measures, such as:


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Federal government regulations, Notices of Intent, and Memoranda of Understanding, as they existed at the time of this report, on emission sources such as on-road and non-road vehicles, engines and fuels

Planned federal amendments to the

Off-Road Compression-Ignition Engine Emission Regulations to incorporate Tier 4 emission standards in alignment with the United States Environmental Protection Agency standards

Proposed federal regulations for

volatile organic compounds in consumer and commercial products

BC proposed greenhouse gas tailpipe

emission standards (2009-2016) Metro Vancouver AQMP emission

reduction measures as implemented and / or committed

Metro Vancouver proposed Boiler and

Heater Regulation AirCare program (until 2011, when

the current contract expires) AirCare On-Road Program (2010-

2015, excluding 2005) Depending on the level of uncertainty and what details were available during this study, some of the planned emission reduction measures were included in a low or high scenario, rather than in the moderate scenario. These scenarios provide high and low “bracketing” around the moderate scenario and allow for an analysis of the sensitivity of emissions estimates to factors such as: Growth (in population and economy)

International, federal and provincial

regulations in early development (e.g. Federal Clean Air Regulatory Agenda, BC Green Building Code, and revisions to International Maritime Organization’s MARPOL Annex VI)

Emission estimates and forecasts are only as good as the data that is available to estimate them, and the best methodology available at the time. Part of the effort involved in emissions inventories is to seek ways to improve the available data and methodology. In 2005, emission estimates for some sectors have been revised to incorporate updated methodology and data, resulting in substantial changes to the emission estimates. It is important to note for these sectors, these emission changes are due mainly to updated methodology and/or data, which include: United States Environmental

Protection Agency methodology for calculating fugitive dust emissions associated with the handling and storage of bulk commodities

Updated methodology for calculating

fugitive dust from the construction and demolition sector

Updated data for the solvent

evaporation sector A year-long comprehensive set of

surveyed data and updated methodology used in preparing the ocean-going marine vessel emission inventory

What Air Contaminants are Included in the Emission Inventory and Forecast/Backcast? Common Air Contaminants and Ammonia The contaminants in the emission inventory and forecast/backcast include the “common air contaminants” (CACs): carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, sulphur oxides and total particulate matter. Ammonia is also included here, recognizing its role in secondary particulate matter formation (i.e. particles formed in the atmosphere from a series of physical and chemical processes between gases).


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Carbon Monoxide Carbon monoxide (CO), a colourless and odourless gas, is formed when carbon material does not burn completely. The main source is transportation, particularly motor vehicles and non-road engines and equipment. CO is a health concern because elevated exposure can reduce the ability of the blood to carry oxygen to the heart, brain, and other tissues, resulting in impaired performance, respiratory failure, and death. Nitrogen Oxides Nitrogen oxides (NOx) form when fuel is burned at high temperatures, like in an engine or boiler. Under certain weather conditions, NOx can react with other chemicals to form ground-level ozone, acid rain, and secondary particulate matter. NOx can irritate the lungs and lower resistance to respiratory infections. NOx includes NO and NO2, and the convention is to report NOx on the basis of the molecular weight of NO2.

Total Particulate Matter Total particulate matter (PM) includes dust, dirt, soot, smoke, and liquid droplets, which are emitted from sources like windblown dust, the burning of fuel, industries such as coal and grain handling, and travel on roads. Total particulate matter is made up of particles of all sizes, including the two most familiar size fractions, namely PM10 and PM2.5. Inhalable Particulate Matter, PM10PM10 refers to particles smaller than 10 microns. In comparison, a human hair is about 50 to 100 microns in diameter. PM10 is a mixture of constituents including nitrates, sulphates, and diesel particulate matter exhaust. PM10 may be solid particles or liquid droplets. Fine Particulate Matter, PM2.5PM2.5 refers to particles smaller than 2.5 microns. They can be breathed deep into the lungs and contain substances that are particularly harmful to human health. Scientific studies have linked these small particles to premature death, aggravated asthma, acute respiratory symptoms, and

chronic bronchitis. As well, PM2.5 scatters light in the atmosphere and reduces visibility. Road Dust Road dust is a type of particulate matter made up of material that has been previously deposited on the travel surface such as mud and dirt track-out, litter, garbage, refuse, leaves, plants, vehicle exhaust, tire debris, brake linings, pavement wear, and fallout from industrial emissions. Traffic or wind resuspends the road dust into the air, followed by the redeposition of some of it back onto the streets.

Primary & Secondary Particulate Matter It is important to distinguish between primary and secondary particulate matter. Primary particles are emitted directly into the air. Secondary particles are formed in the atmosphere from a series of physical and chemical processes between gases. This emission inventory and forecast and backcast give estimates for primary particulate matter only. While the inventory does not attempt to put a figure on secondary particulate matter formation, the primary emissions data is used as an input to current efforts to model its formation.

Volatile Organic Compounds Volatile organic compounds (VOC) can react with NOx in the atmosphere to form ground-level ozone, a key constituent of smog. Some VOCs can also have a potential carcinogenic or toxic effect. VOCs are emitted from vegetation, motor vehicles, chemical manufacturing plants, and a wide variety of industrial, commercial, and consumer solvents. Sulphur Oxides Sulphur oxides (SOx) are a group of sulphur and oxygen compounds and like NOx, are formed when fuel is burned. The



major health effects of concern associated with exposure to high levels of SOx include effects on breathing, aggravation of existing respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. It can also interact with other compounds in the air to form secondary particulate matter and can lead to acid rain. SOx emissions include SO2 and SO4, but are reported on the basis of the molecular weight of SO2. Ammonia For a complete understanding of PM2.5 emissions, one should also consider the emissions of ammonia (NH3). NH3, along with SOx, NOx and some VOCs, can react in the atmosphere to form secondary PM2.5. NH3 is a colourless gas with a very sharp odour. It is produced by animals, wastes, and fertilizer application. Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gases (GHGs) include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapour, to name a few.

The principal greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, are included in this emission inventory. Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released to the atmosphere when fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) and solid waste are burned. In both the 2005 emission inventory and the forecast and backcast, estimates of CO2 emissions are reported following methodology set out by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The following page provides a discussion on these greenhouse gas reporting conventions. Methane Methane (CH4) is emitted during the production and transport of natural gas and oil. Methane emissions also result from the decomposition of organic wastes in municipal solid waste landfills and the raising of livestock. Nitrous oxide Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during burning of solid waste and fossil fuels, particularly in motor vehicles. Other GHGs, namely hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluorides, have not been included in this report, as they are believed to be insignificant in the region, compared to CO2, CH4, and N2O.

What are CO2-equivalents? Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are assigned to GHGs as a measure of their relative heat-trapping effect. GWP values allow comparisons of the impacts of emissions and reductions of different gases. Methane has a global warming potential of 21 compared to carbon dioxide, while nitrous oxide’s GWP is 310. Multiplying emissions of these two gases by their respective GWP's allows them to be summed together with carbon dioxide and be expressed as a “CO2-equivalent (CO2E)”.

Why GHGs are a Concern GHGs trap the sun’s heat near the Earth’s surface and keep the Earth warm. While the presence of such gases is essential in keeping the Earth warm enough to support life, emissions from human activity have been rising, leading to an additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. This enhanced effect is believed to lead to a shifting of the world’s climate systems to wider extremes and variability.

What are the Sources of Emissions? The emission inventory and forecast and backcast covers three main categories of emissions: point, area, and mobile sources. Point Sources Point sources are industrial facilities or utilities operating under an air discharge



Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Reporting Conventions Although many local governments and regional districts within British Columbia are compiling greenhouse gas emission inventories, these inventories are not always consistent in methodology. The key features of the LFV GHG inventory include: • IPCC Protocols for Biomass & Biofuels – The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines consider CO2 emissions from combustion of biomass (such as biological waste, wood fuel and a portion of the municipal solid waste stream) and biofuels (such as ethanol and biodiesel) GHG neutral as part of the carbon cycle. This inventory adheres to these Guidelines and as a result excludes CO2 emissions from combustion of biomass and biofuels from emission totals but includes CH4 and N2O emissions from biomass and biofuels in emission totals. Emissions associated with the production or transport of biomass or biofuels are captured under their respective categories. For example, agriculture equipment for harvesting ethanol feedstock would be captured under the non-road mobile equipment category (if emissions are directly occurring within the LFV).

• IPCC Protocols for Aviation and Marine – IPCC Guidelines require that GHG

emissions from international navigation and aviation be reported separately from domestic and not be included in the national total. These Guidelines prevent double-counting of emissions from these two inherently international operations. According to IPCC protocols, only emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O associated with wholly domestic trips are included in the emissions totals. GHG emissions associated with international trips are not included in the emission inventory.

• Direct Emissions Only – Notwithstanding the IPPC reporting conventions noted

above, the LFV GHG inventory accounts for all emissions directly emitted within our geographic scope. Examples of this include fuel combustion in industrial facilities, commercial and residential buildings, as well as vehicles, that occurs within the LFV. Indirect emissions refer to GHG emissions from purchases or imports of electricity, steam, fuel, etc. The GHG emissions that occur in producing that energy or fuel is a consequence of an activity in the LFV, but the emissions may not occur directly within the LFV. Indirect emissions are excluded from the inventory.

permit, or in some cases a regulation issued by Metro Vancouver or the BC Ministry of Environment (BCMOE), or under a Solid Waste Management Plan authorized by BCMOE, or under the jurisdiction of the Washington State Department of Ecology or Northwest Clean Air Agency. In general, these sources are large, stationary, identifiable sources that release pollutants into the atmosphere. Ideally, all stationary sources would be considered point sources. Practically, however, only sources that emit more than a specified level of contaminants or have a significant impact on the

surrounding environment are required to apply for an air quality permit. Area Sources Area sources are smaller, broadly distributed light industrial, commercial, institutional, residential, agricultural and naturally occurring sources that normally do not require an air discharge permit but may be regulated by other mechanisms. Area sources are typically too small, numerous, or difficult to inventory using the methods for the other classes of sources. Examples of area sources include burning (e.g. land clearing, agricultural, residential open burning),


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heating, solvent evaporation, fuel marketing and municipal solid waste landfills. These area source categories

2. Results The following tables and graphs summarize the principal emissions of the various pollutants inventoried. The forecast and backcast of various pollutants are also presented by emission source and geographic region. The projected high and low emissions for the LFV airshed are shown on trend graphs. More detailed tables can be found in the Appendices of this report.

are combined in such a way that emissions can be estimated for an entire category using one methodology. Mobile Sources Mobile sources include passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, minivans, other light and heavy trucks, buses, aircraft, railways, marine vessels, and non-road engines such as agricultural, construction, recreational, and lawn and garden equipment.


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2.1 Common Air Contaminants (CACs)

Light-Duty Vehicles

52%

Non-Road37%


Principal Sources of 2005 Carbon Monoxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver73%

FVRD12%

Whatcom County15%

Table 1 and Figure 2 show 2005 CO emissions by source category and region. Table A (in the Appendix) provides detailed 2005 emission estimates for CO, as well for all other contaminants, by source and region.


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Category Metro FVRD Whatcom TotalVancouver County

Light-Duty Vehicles 169,957 27,445 30,879 228,281Non-Road 127,396 20,389 15,330 163,116All Other Sources 24,173 5,949 18,354 48,476Total 321,526 53,783 64,564 439,872

Cars and light trucks contribute 52%

of CO emissions in the airshed. Non-road vehicles and engines

contribute 37% of total CO emissions. These emissions result primarily from gasoline consumption by industrial, commercial, construction, and lawn and garden equipment.

Overall, Metro Vancouver accounts

for 73% of CO emissions in the LFV airshed, followed by Whatcom County at 15%, and the FVRD at 12%.

Figure 2: 2005 Carbon Monoxide Emissions440,000 tonnes

Table 1: Principal Sources of Carbon Monoxide Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)

Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions Figure 3 shows the trends in CO emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 4 shows CO emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 1 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for CO by source and region. Total CO emissions declined from

1990 to 2005, largely due to the AirCare program and improved vehicle emission standards. The CO missions are projected to increase between 2010 and 2030, due

primarily to an increase in nonroad engine, heating (e.g. buildings), and light-duty vehicle use.

Other non-road equipment (construction, agricultural, lawn and garden, etc) have an increasingly larger share in future years.

The slight increase shown in 2015 is

due to the expiration of the current AirCare contract.

Emissions of CO are projected to be

highest in Metro Vancouver followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Point SourcesArea SourcesLight-Duty VehiclesNon-roadOther Mobile Sources

Figure 3: Trends in LFV Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Source

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

FVRD

LFV Total

Metro Vancouver

2005 EI

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 4: Trends in LFV Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Region


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Principal Sources of 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions

Heating10%

Light-Duty Vehicles

24%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

11%

Marine14%

Non-Road17%

All Other Sources

24%

Table 2 and Figure 5 show 2005 NOx emissions by source category.

Metro Vancouver72%

FVRD11%

Whatcom County17%

Cars and light trucks account for 24%

of NOx emissions in the airshed, followed by non-road engines (17%), marine vessels (14%), heavy trucks and buses (11%), and heating (10%). Most of the marine vessel emissions occur in the coastal waters off of Metro Vancouver.

Figure 5: 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 61,000 tonnes 72% of NOx emissions originate from

Metro Vancouver, with 17% and 11% from Whatcom County and the FVRD, respectively.


Heating 4,995 560 377 5,931Light-Duty Vehicles 11,198 1,808 1,883 14,889Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,757 1,034 1,717 6,508Marine 7,263 71 1,041 8,375Non-Road 8,145 1,571 950 10,666All Other Sources 8,799 1,642 4,157 14,597Total 44,156 6,686 10,124 60,966

Table 2: Principal Sources of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)


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Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Figure 6 shows the trends in NOx emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 7 shows NOx emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 2 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for NOx by source and region. Total NOx emissions declined from

1990, and this trend is projected to continue through to 2020.

The decline in emissions from light-

duty vehicles after 1990 is largely due to improved vehicle emission standards and AirCare vehicle and inspection and maintenance program.

Mobile sources are the main contributors of NOx emissions. Until 2010, cars and light trucks are the main source of NOx.

By 2015, marine vessels are projected to become a dominant source of NOx emissions. The anticipated increase in marine vessel emissions is due to the combined effects of the projected growth in shipping and the fact that emission reduction measures for this sector are not at the same stage of development as those for some other major sectors, such as onroad vehicles.

Emissions of NOx are highest in

Metro Vancouver, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

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30

60

90

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NO

x (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point SourcesArea SourcesLight-Duty VehiclesMarineOther Mobile Sources

Figure 6: Trends in LFV Nitrogen Oxide Emissions by Source

-

30

60

90

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NO

x (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 7: Trends in LFV Nitrogen Oxide Emissions by Region


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Principal Sources of 2005 Total Particulate Matter, PM10, and PM2.5 Emissions Table 3 and Figure 8 show 2005 particulate matter emissions by source category.


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Metro Vancouver66%

D

18%

FVR16%

Whatcom County

Agricultural16% Burning

6%

Heating7%

Construction33%Non-Road

4%

All Other Sources

22%

Bulk Shipping Terminals

5%

Wood Products

7% Area sources account for the bulk of

total particulate matter emissions, with 33% from construction and demolition activity, and 16% from agricultural, mainly wind erosion and tilling.

Other sources of PM include heating

and wood products (7% each), burning (6%), and bulk shipping terminals (5%).

Figure 9 and Figure 10 show 2005 PM10 and PM2.5 emissions by source category. The largest sources of PM10 in the

region are construction and demolition activity (19%), heating (12%), agriculture (11%), burning (9%), non-road sources (7%), and wood products (6%).

For PM2.5, the largest sources are

heating (20%), burning (15%), non-road sources (12%), marine vessels (7%), construction (6%), wood products (5%), and light and heavy-duty vehicles (4%).

The Nature of Things – Particulate Matter While point and area sources are significant contributors to total particulate matter, their relative contribution declines when looking at emissions of the PM10 and PM2.5 fractions. This trend can be attributed mainly to the nature of particulate matter from point and area versus mobile sources. Mobile source particulate emissions are primarily combustion-related, and as a result, the particulate matter is mostly in the smaller size ranges. Particulate emissions from light- duty, heavy-duty

Approximately 66% of PM emissions originate from Metro Vancouver, 20% from Whatcom County and 14% from the FVRD.

Figure 8: 2005 Total Particulate Matter Emissions 22,200 tonnes

vehicles and non-road sources are almost entirely PM10, with significant portions in the PM2.5 range. For point and area sources, however, the fractions of total particulate matter smaller than 10 and 2.5 microns are substantially lower. This reflects the coarser nature of non-combustion particulate matter from industrial sources such as bulk materials handling and woodworking, or area sources such as wind erosion of soils and fugitive dust from construction activity. The particulate matter emissions discussed above do not include estimates of road dust, which is discussed in the next section.

Wood Products

5%

Burning15%

Heating20%

All Other Sources

31% Construction6%

Non-Road12%

Marine7%

Light & Heavy-Duty Vehicles

4%

Agricultural11%

Burning9%

Heating12%

Construction19%

Non-Road7%

All Other Sources

36%

Wood Products

6%

Metro Vancouver66%

FVRD14%

Whatcom County20%

Metro Vancouver67%

FVRD13%

Whatcom County20%

Figure 9: 2005 PM10 Emissions 11,800 tonnes

Figure 10: 2005 PM2.5 Emissions 7,000 tonnes

Table 3: Principal Sources of Total Particulate Matter, PM10, and PM2.5 Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)

Category Metro FVRD Whatcom Total Metro FVRD Whatcom Total Metro FVRD Whatcom TotalVancouver County Vancouver County Vancouver County

Bulk Shipping Terminals 1,064 0 0 1,064 437 0 0 437 112 0 0 112Wood Products 1,326 248 0 1,574 637 94 0 731 288 38 0 326Agricultural 803 1,855 869 3,528 246 650 392 1,288 52 137 82 272Burning 939 180 194 1,313 782 143 165 1,090 753 141 155 1,050Heating 787 259 445 1,490 758 247 442 1,447 754 246 441 1,441Construction 5,581 431 1,413 7,424 1,674 129 424 2,227 335 26 85 445Non-Road 618 157 103 878 618 157 103 878 591 151 95 836All Other Sources 3,567 336 1,022 4,925 2,604 238 898 3,739 1,815 160 578 2,553Total 14,685 3,465 4,046 22,196 7,757 1,657 2,424 11,838 4,699 899 1,436 7,035

PM2.5Total Particulate Matter PM10


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Trends in Total Particulate Matter and Inhalable and Fine Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5) Emissions

Figure 11, Figure 12 and Figure 13 show the trends in PM, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 14, Figure 15, and Figure 16 show regional emissions of PM, PM10, and PM2.5, respectively. Table B - 3 to Table B - 5 (in the Appendix) provide detailed emission estimates for PM, PM10, and PM2.5 by source and region. Since 1990, PM, PM10 and PM2.5

emissions have decreased steadily. Reductions from the petroleum refining and wood products sectors coupled with reductions from light and heavy-duty vehicles have dthe declining trend.

riven

The forecast of PM10 and PM2.5

emissions shows a steadily increasing trend from 2010 to 2030.

Heating (e.g. buildings), burning,

and marine vessels are anticipated to be the main sources of PM2.5 emissions in the future. Again, emissions from combustion sources are more significant in the smaller size fractions (e.g. PM2.5), so sources such as heating and burning tend to contribute a larger fraction of fine PM emissions.

Projected emissions of PM, PM10

and PM2.5 are highest in Metro Vancouver, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

Figure 11: Trends in LFV Total Particulate Matter Emissions by Source

-

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesAgriculturalConstructionOther Area SourceMobile Sources

PM

exc

ludi

ng ro

ad d

ust (

kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

-

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesHeatingConstructionOther Area SourcesMobile Sources

PM

10 e

xclu

ding

road

dus

t (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)

Figure 12: Trends in LFV PM10 Emissions by Source

-

4

8

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBurningHeatingConstruction DustOther Area SourcesMobile Sources

PM

2.5 e

xclu

ding

road

dus

t (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)

Figure 13: Trends in LFV PM2.5 Emissions by Source



-

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PM

, exc

ludi

ng ro

ad d

ust (

kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 14: Trends in LFV Total Particulate Matter by Region

-

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PM

10, e

xclu

ding

road

dus

t (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 15: Trends in LFV PM10 by Region

-

4

8

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PM

2.5,

excl

udin

g ro

ad d

ust (

kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 16: Trends in LFV PM2.5 by Region


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Road Dust Road dust emissions are estimated to be about 27,000 tonnes PM, including 5,200 tonnes PM10 and 700 tonnes PM2.5. If road dust is included in PM, PM10 and PM2.5 emission estimates, then it is the main contributor of emissions for all of the backcast and forecast years. Emissions are projected to increase during the entire study period, due to steadily increasing vehicle kilometres traveled in the LFV. Figure 17 shows the trend in road dust PM, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions for the LFV airshed.

Table B - 3 to Table B - 5 (in the Appendix) provide detailed emission estimates for PM, PM10, and PM2.5 by source and region, and include road dust. Due to their coarse nature, road dust emissions are less significant in the smaller size fractions (e.g. PM2.5) than in the larger size fractions. Combustion sources such as heating, burning and marine vessels tend to contribute an increasingly larger share of PM emissions as the size fraction decreases. In fact, heating, burning and marine vessels PM2.5 emissions nearly match or exceed road dust emissions. See the text box in the next section for more discussion on road dust emissions.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Road Dust PM

Road Dust PM2.5

2005 EI

Road Dust PM10

-

20

40

60

1990 1995 2000

LFV

Roa

d D

ust (

kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Figure 17: Trends in LFV Road Dust Emissions




19

Factors Affecting Road Dust Emissions The reader should bear in mind that there are several factors that affect road dust emissions. Foremost of these factors is that a large fraction of the suspended road dust, a type of “fugitive dust”, originates from other sources that may already be included in the inventory; traffic or wind resuspends road dust into the air, and is subsequently redeposited on the ground. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) states that: “Although the NET inventory shows that fugitive dust contributes a large percentage to the total PM emissions, a report by the Desert Research Institute found that about 75% of these emissions are within 2 metres of the ground at the point they are measured. Thus, most of them are likely to be removed within a few kilometres of their release, depending on atmospheric turbulence, temperature, soil moisture, availability of horizontal and vertical surfaces for impaction and initial suspension energy. This is consistent with the general small amount of crustal materials found on speciated ambient samples.” (US EPA, 2000) Analysis of local ambient samples also shows that crustal/soil material, a major component of road dust, makes up a smaller amount of particles in the air than that suggested by inventories in Metro Vancouver and other jurisdictions. In other words, whereas gaseous pollutants like NOx and SOx are emitted into the atmosphere and remain in suspension, are transported, or transformed in chemical reactions, only a portion of the PM estimated in the inventory is transported over long distances. The remainder is re-deposited on nearby surfaces. The amount re-deposited depends on factors like atmospheric turbulence, moisture, and initial suspension energy, which is not yet well understood. Because of the non-transportability of a portion of the fugitive dust, emissions of road dust are reported separately from other sources of PM emissions.

Principal Sources of 2005 Sulphur Oxide Emissions


Petroleum Products 581 14 1,750 2,345Primary Metal Industries 0 0 1,609 1,609Marine 3,824 5 1,038 4,867Non-Road 195 45 94 335All Other Sources 781 99 267 1,147Total 5,381 162 4,758 10,302

Petroleum Products

23%

Primary Metal Industries

16%

Marine47%


Non-Road3%

Metro Vancouver52%

FVRD2%

Whatcom County46%

Table 4 and Figure 18 show 2005 SOx emissions by source category. Marine vessels, mainly ocean going

vessels in Metro Vancouver waters, are the largest contributors of SOx emissions in the airshed, at 47%.

The petroleum products industry, due

mainly to refineries operating on both the Canadian and United States sides of the border, emits 23% of SOx emissions.

The primary metals industry in

Whatcom County contributes 16% of SOx emissions.

Other contributors include non-road

engines and equipment. Overall, both Metro Vancouver and

Whatcom County each contribute about one-half the SOx emissions into the LFV Airshed.

Figure 18: 2005 Sulphur Oxide Emissions 10,300 tonnes

Table 4: Principal Sources of Sulphur Oxide Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)



Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions Figure 19 shows the trends in SOx emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 20 shows SOx emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 6 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for SOx by source and region. SOx emissions declined from 1990 to

2005, largely as a result of reduced sulphur in onroad fuels, the shutdown of several Metro Vancouver refineries, and reduced emissions from the cement plants and primary metals industry (aluminum smelter in Whatcom County).

A projected increase in SOx emissions is mainly due to increased emissions from marine vessels.

SOx emissions are directly related to fuel consumption and the sulphur content of the fuel. Hence, increased activity in the marine sector, combined with unchanging fuel sulphur contents, results in steadily increasing marine SOx emissions.

Other main contributors of SOx emissions in the future include point sources such as the petroleum refining and primary metals industries.

Whatcom County’s SOx emissions are dominated by the aluminum smelter and petroleum refining industries. Metro Vancouver also has significant SOx emissions from the petroleum refining industry, but its emissions are expected to be increasingly dominated by marine vessel emissions. The FVRD contributes only a small portion of SOx emissions.

-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SO

x (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point Sources

Area SourcesMarine


Figure 19: Trends in LFV Sulphur Oxide Emissions by Source

-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SOx

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 20: Trends in LFV Sulphur Oxide Emissions by Region



Principal Sources of 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions


22

Agricultural7%

Natural Sources33%

Solvent Evaporation

20%

Light-Duty Vehicles

17%

Non-Road11%


Table 5 and Figure 21 show 2005 VOC emissions by source category. Solvent evaporation from industrial,

commercial, and consumer products like paints, stains, varnishes, solvents, and thinners, make up 20% of VOC emissions.

Metro Vancouver

50%

FVRD18%

Whatcom County32%

Cars and light trucks represent 17% of total VOC emissions.

Natural sources (33%), non-road

sources (11%), agricultural (7%) and other sources (12%) account for the remaining VOC emissions. Natural sources comprise trees and vegetation.

Approximately, one-half of VOC

emissions originate from Metro Vancouver, with one-third from Whatcom County, and one-fifth from the FVRD.

Figure 21: 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 108,000 tonnes

Table 5: Principal Sources of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)


Anthropogenic Sources Agricultural 651 2,305 4,135 7,091 Solvent Evaporation 18,103 2,177 1,785 22,065 Light-Duty Vehicles 13,601 2,196 2,346 18,144 All Other Sources 17,801 2,842 4,866 25,509Sub-total 50,156 9,521 13,132 72,809

Natural Sources 4,168 10,073 21,103 35,344

Total 54,325 19,594 34,235 108,153

Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions Figure 22 shows the trends in VOC emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 23 shows VOC emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV.

-

30

60

90

120

150

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

VOC

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

-

30

60

90

120

150

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

VO

C (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point SourcesNatural SourcesSolvent EvaporationOther Area Sources

Light-Duty VehiclesOther Mobile Sources

Table B - 7 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for VOCs by source aregion.

nd

regulated, while FVRD and Whatcom

VOC emissions declined

between 1990-2005. With the steady decline in

VOC emissions from cars and light trucks between 1990-2015, due to improved vehicle emission regulations, natural sources like trees and vegetation have become the main contributor of VOC emissions. In 2005, the solvent evaporation sector (e.g. industrial, commercial, and consumer products like paints, stains, varnishes, solvents, and thinners) became the main anthropogenic source of VOCs, also overtaking cars and light trucks. In the future, solvent use is projected to still be a significant contributor source of VOC emissions, even with the federal government’s proposed regulations for volatile organic compounds in consumer and commercial products in place.

Within the LFV, emissions of

VOCs are highest in Metro Vancouver, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

The decline in VOC emissions

are more prominent in Metro Vancouver compared to Whatcom County and the FVRD. This is because much of the Metro Vancouver VOC emissions are from motor vehicles, which are increasingly

County emissions are dominated by natural sources.

Figure 22: Trends in LFV VOC Emissions by Source

Figure 23: Trends in LFV VOC Emissions by Region



Principal Sources of 2005 Ammonia Emissions

Agricultural76%

Light-Duty Vehicles

7%


Table 6 and Figure 24 show the 2005 NH3 emissions by source category. Agriculture contributes the largest

amount of NH3 in the region. Cattle, pigs, and poultry, manure handling and storage, and fertilizer application contributed 76% of total NH3 emissions in 2005.

Cars and light trucks account for 7%.

Metro Vancouver29%

FVRD35%

Whatcom County36%

36% of NH3 emissions come from Whatcom County, while the FVRD and Metro Vancouver account for 35% and 29%, respectively.

Figure 24: 2005 Ammonia Emissions 18,500 tonnes


Agricultural 1,924 5,911 6,344 14,179Light-Duty Vehicles 937 151 118 1,207All Other Sources 2,469 397 292 3,158Total 5,331 6,459 6,754 18,544

Table 6: Principal Sources of Ammonia Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)


24

Trends in Ammonia Emissions Figure 25 shows the trend in NH3 emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 26 shows NH3 emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 8 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for NH3 by source and region. NH3 emissions are projected to

steadily increase from 1990 to 2030 due to an increase in light-duty vehicle use and agricultural activity.

Area sources, in particular agricultural sources (e.g. manure handling and storage, and fertilizer application) contribute the largest amount of NH3 in the region for all years. Other sources such as cars and light trucks and miscellaneous sources (e.g. pets, humans, refrigerants) play smaller roles.

NH3 emissions are greater in FVRD

than in Metro Vancouver and Whatcom County. This is due to the agricultural activities in FVRD.

-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NH 3

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Point SourcesAgriculturalOther Area SourcesMobile Sources

Figure 25: Trends in LFV Ammonia Emissions by Source

-

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NH

3 (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

) LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 26: Trends in LFV Ammonia Emissions by Region


25

Principal Sources of 2005 Smog-Forming Pollutants Originally, the term “smog” referred to a mixture of smoke and fog in the air. Today, “smog” describes a harmful mixture of air pollutants, including gases and fine particles that can often be seen as a brownish-yellow or greyish-white haze. The elderly, particularly those with existing heart or lung disease, and children are the most vulnerable to smog. High levels of smog can even affect healthy adults.


26

Metro Vancouver56%

FVRD16%

Whatcom County28%

Agricultural11%

Natural Sources17%

Solvent Evaporation

11%Marine7%

Non-Road12%

All Other Sources

25%

Light-Duty Vehicles

17%

The key components of smog are small particles (including secondary particulate matter that can form in the atmosphere in the presence of NOx, SOx and NH3) and ground-level ozone. Ozone is a colourless and highly irritating gas that forms naturally when sunlight “cooks” the precursor pollutants (i.e. NOx and VOC) over urban areas especially on hot summer days.


Anthropogenic Sources Agricultural 2,627 8,353 10,561 21,542 Solvent Evaporation 18,103 2,177 1,785 22,065 Light-Duty Vehicles 25,937 4,188 4,394 34,520 Marine 11,796 79 2,206 14,081 Non-Road 17,868 3,448 2,869 24,185 All Other Sources 33,222 5,101 14,044 52,367Sub-total 109,553 23,347 35,860 168,760

Natural Sources 4,340 10,453 21,447 36,240

Total 113,893 33,800 57,307 205,000

In order to provide a simplified, aggregate indicator of where “emissions” may be heading, we have summed the emissions of the principal “smog-forming pollutants”, namely NOx, VOC, PM2.5, SOx and NH3. Although it masks the emission trends of the individual contaminants (especially those with smaller absolute emission totals, like PM2.5), the combination of these contaminants is an attempt to simplify their complex interactions by reporting them under one umbrella. These are the major contributors to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter, and to the degradation of visibility. Table 7 and Figure 27 show the 2005 emissions of the smog-forming pollutants by source category.

Natural sources emit 17% of smog- forming pollutants, followed by cars and light trucks (17%), non-road engines (12%), solvent evaporation (11%), agricultural (11%), and marine vessels (7%).

Metro Vancouver contributes 56% of

smog-forming pollutants in the airshed, with the remaining coming from Whatcom County (28%), and the FVRD (16%).

Figure 27: 2005 Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions 205,000 tonnes

Table 7: Principal Sources of Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)

Trends in Smog Forming Pollutant Emissions Figure 28 shows the trend in smog-forming pollutant emissions by source category for the airshed. Figure 29 shows emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 9 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for smog-forming pollutants by source and region.

-

100

200

300

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Sm

og-F

orm

ing

Pol

luta

nts

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Point Sources

Area Sources

Light-Duty Vehicles

Other Mobile Sources Overall, the trend in

smog-forming pollutant emissions decreases until 2020, after which emissions begin to rise.

-

100

200

300

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Sm

og-F

orm

ing

Pol

luta

nt (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Mobile sources, which were the main contributor of smog-forming pollutants until 2000, show a decreasing trend until 2020 and then begin a slight upward trend.

Area sources overtake

mobile sources in 2005, driven by VOCs from solvent evaporation, natural sources; and NH3 from agricultural sources.

In 2005 and previously,

aside from natural sources, the main contributors to smog-forming pollutants were cars and light trucks, followed by non-road engines, solvent evaporation, and agriculture.

In 2030, solvent evaporation

is projected to be the largest source, followed by agricultural sources (mainly NH3) and marine vessels (mainly NOx and SOx). The predominance of these sources is due to a projected corresponding change in activity in these sectors, as well as emission reductions resulting

from regulations in other sectors such as onroad motor vehicles and non-road engines.

Metro Vancouver is the main

contributor of smog-forming pollutant emissions, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

Figure 28: Trends in LFV Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Source

Figure 29: Trends in LFV Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Region



2.2 Greenhouse Gases

Heating26%

Light-Duty Vehicles

27%

Non-Road5%

All Other Sources9%

Petroleum Products

11%


10%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

7%


5%Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are believed to be shifting the world’s climate systems to wider extremes. The principal greenhouse gases that have been estimated for this inventory are CO2, CH4, and N2O. Principal Sources of 2005 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Table 8 and Figure 30 show the 2005 CO2 emissions by source category. Cars and light trucks contribute 27%

of CO2 emissions in the LFV, followed by heating at 26%.

Metro Vancouver70%

FVRD9%

Whatcom County21%

Petroleum products (11%, mainly in Whatcom County), non-metallic mineral sector (10%, mainly cement plants in Metro Vancouver), heavy trucks and buses (7%), non-road engines (5%), and electric power generation (5%, mainly in Whatcom County) are other significant sources of CO2.

Figure 30: 2005 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 20,700,000 tonnes

The bulk of CO2 emissions in the airshed come from Metro Vancouver (70%). Whatcom County accounts for 21% and the FVRD, 9%.


Electric Power Generation 67,616 0 906,906 974,523Non-Metallic Mineral 2,028,134 12,244 0 2,040,378Petroleum Products 467,964 12,093 1,707,360 2,187,417Heating 4,718,869 526,466 348,625 5,593,960Light-Duty Vehicles 4,317,924 697,271 523,562 5,538,757Heavy-Duty Vehicles 870,369 239,482 242,003 1,351,854Non-Road 845,468 165,580 110,461 1,121,508All Other Sources 1,369,006 112,002 426,248 1,907,256Total 14,685,350 1,765,137 4,265,165 20,715,653

Table 8: Principal Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)


28

Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 31 shows the trend in CO2 emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 32 shows emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 10 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for CO2 by source and region. Historically, emissions of CO2 were

highest in 1995 and 2000, due in part to significant emissions from an electric power generation plant in Metro Vancouver. CO2 emissions from this facility were significantly lower in 2005 and projected to remain low in the future due to decreased operations.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203

CO

2 (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

0

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

CO2 emissions in the airshed are projected to increase between 2010-2030, primarily due to increasing population and economic activity (e.g. more driving, building heating /cooling requirements).

In 2005, light-duty

vehicles and heating were the major sources of CO emissions. Emissions from heating are projected to continue their climb to 2030, while CO

2

2 emissions from light-duty vehicles are projected to start declining due to the proposed BC tailpipe standards.

The petroleum refining

and cement industries, and non-road equipment contribute significant

of COamountsas well.

2 emissions

Of the three political regions, Metro Vancouver has the highest CO2 emissions, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

In Metro Vancouver and FVRD, the

main contributors of CO2 are heating (e.g. buildings) and cars and light trucks. Metro Vancouver also has significant emissions from cement plants and petroleum refining. In Whatcom County, the main contributors are petroleum refining and electric power generation.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)


Figure 31: Trends in LFV Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Source

Figure 32: Trends in LFV Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region



Principal Sources of 2005 Methane Emissions

Agricultural61%

Landfills28%


Table 9 and Figure 33 show the 2005 CH4 emissions by source category. The agricultural sector, mainly cattle,

accounts for 61% of CH4 emissions. Methane is released as part of the cattle digestive process.

Landfills contribute 28% of CH4

emissions in the airshed. Whatcom County, with 39%, is the

main source of methane, followed by Metro Vancouver at 36%, and FVRD at 25%. Most of the Whatcom County and FVRD methane emissions result from agricultural activities, while in Metro Vancouver landfills are the principal source.

Metro Vancouver36%

FVRD25%

Whatcom County39%

Figure 33: 2005 Methane Emissions 68,500 tonnes


Agricultural 3,479 13,150 24,844 41,473Landfills 16,395 2,614 170 19,179All Other Sources 5,092 1,488 1,286 7,866Total 24,966 17,252 26,300 68,518

Table 9: Principal Sources of Methane Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes).


30

Trends in Methane Emissions Figure 34 shows the trend in CH4 emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 35 emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 11 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for CH4 by source and region. CH4 emissions declined between

1995 and 2005, largely due to reduced emissions from landfills.

CH4 emissions in the airshed are dominated by area sources. Mobile and point sources make minor contributions.

In the past, landfills were the major

emissions from agriculture (e.g. livestock digestive processes, manure management) overtook landfill emissions in 2005.

Historically, CH4 emissions have been dominated by sources within Metro Vancouver, particularly landfills. As landfill emissions decreased, largely due to landfill gas collection at the City of Vancouver’s Burns Bog landfill and decreased anaerobic activity at closed landfills, total Metro Vancouver CH4 emissions are projected to decline almost to FVRD levels, whose emissions are dominated by agricultural sources. Whatcom County emissions are projected to remain unchanged in the future, reflecting more or less the same agricultural activity.

contributor of CH4 emissions, but

-

25

50

75

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CH

4 (ki

loto

nnes

/ yr

)

Point SourcesAgriculturalLandfillsOther Area SourcesMobile Sources

Figure 34: Trends in LFV Methane Emissions by Source

-

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CH

4 Em

issi

ons

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 35: Trends in LFV Methane Emissions by Region


31

Principal Sources of 2005 Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Agricultural32%

Burning7%

Light-Duty Vehicles

32%

Non-Road12% All Other Sources

17% Table 10 and Figure 36 show the 2005 N2O emissions by source category. Cars and light trucks contribute 32%

of airshed N2O emissions. Agriculture (mainly fertilizer

application), non-road engines and burning account for 32%, 12%, and 7%, respectively.

On a regional basis, 55% of N2O

emissions come from Metro Vancouver, 24% from the FVRD, and 21% from Whatcom County.

Metro Vancouver55%

FVRD24%

Whatcom County21%

Figure 36: 2005 Nitrous Oxide Emissions 2,300 tonnes


Agricultural 130 335 276 741Burning 117 31 24 172Light-Duty Vehicles 582 94 77 754Non-Road 196 46 27 269All Other Sources 257 46 84 387Total 1,282 552 489 2,324

Table 10: Principal Sources of Nitrous Oxide Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes).


32

Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions Figure 37 shows the trend in N2O emissions by source category for the airshed, while Figure 38 shows emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 12 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for N2O by source and region. N2O emissions are projected to

decline from 1995 to 2015, at which point they begin to increase again, due primarily to an increase in agricultural activity and non-road

engine use. Approximately one-half of N2O

emissions are attributed to mobile sources for all years, including cars and light trucks, as well as non-road engines and equipment.

Area sources contribute nearly one-half of N2O emissions for all years. The main area source contributors are agriculture (e.g. fertilizer application).

Metro Vancouver emits the most N2O. FVRD emissions are projected to be slightly higher than those in Whatcom County, due mainly to an increase in agricultural activity.

-

1

2

3

4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

N2O

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

Point SourcesAgriculturalOther Area SourcesLight-Duty VehiclesOther Mobile Sources

Figure 37: Trends in LFV Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Source

-

1

2

3

4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

N2O

(kilo

tonn

es /

yr)

LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

Figure 38: Trends in LFV Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Region


33

Principal Sources of 2005 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Petroleum Products

9%

Heating24%

Light-Duty Vehicles

24%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

6%

Non-Road5%



9%


4% Total greenhouse gas emissions, with the weighted-sum of CO2, CH4, and N2O expressed as CO2-equivalents, are shown in Table 11 and Figure 39. The main contributors to total

greenhouse gas emissions in the LFV are heating (e.g. buildings), cars and light trucks, the petroleum products sector (mainly refineries), the non-metallic mineral sector (mainly cement plants), heavy trucks and buses, and non-road engines.

Metro Vancouver68%

FVRD10%

Whatcom County22%

Metro Vancouver contributes 68% of total greenhouse gas emissions to the airshed, Whatcom County 22%, and the FVRD, 10%.

In Metro Vancouver and FVRD, the

main contributors of GHGs are heating, and cars and light trucks. Metro Vancouver also has significant emissions from cement plants.

Figure 39: 2005 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 22,800,000 tonnes

In Whatcom County, the main contributors to GHG emissions are petroleum refining and electric power generation.

Table 11: Principal Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 (metric tonnes)


Electric Power Generation 68,028 0 919,135 987,163Non-Metallic Mineral 2,028,591 12,310 0 2,040,901Petroleum Products 469,504 12,221 1,713,345 2,195,071Heating 4,756,641 534,494 364,837 5,655,973Light-Duty Vehicles 4,505,287 727,526 548,538 5,781,352Heavy-Duty Vehicles 881,498 242,544 245,084 1,369,126Non-Road 927,608 182,579 119,977 1,230,164All Other Sources 1,969,978 586,938 1,058,235 3,615,151Total 15,607,135 2,298,613 4,969,151 22,874,899


34

Trends in Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Figure 40 shows the trend in total greenhouse gas emissions by source category for the airshed, expressed as CO2-equivalents. Figure 41 shows emissions for each of the three regions, as well as the total for the LFV. Table B - 13 (in the Appendix) provides detailed emission estimates for GHG by source and region. GHG emissions were highest in 2000,

due in part to higher emissions from an electric power generation plant in Metro Vancouver. GHG emissions from this facility were significantly lower in 2005 and projected to remain low in the future due to decreased operations.

GHG emissions in the airshed are

projected to increase between 2010-2030, primarily due to increasing population and economic activity.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

)


In 2005, light-duty vehicles and heating were the major sources of GHG emissions. Emissions from heating are projected to continue their climb to 2030, while GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles are projected to start declining due to the proposed BC tailpipe standards.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G (k

iloto

nnes

/ yr

) LFV Total

FVRD

2005 EI

Metro Vancouver

Whatcom County

LFV High

LFV Low

The petroleum refining and cement industries, heavy trucks and buses, as well as other non-road equipment contribute significant amounts of GHG emissions as well.

Of the three political regions, Metro

Vancouver has the highest GHG emissions, followed by Whatcom County and the FVRD.

Although GHG emissions are steadily

increasing, it is interesting to note that per capita GHG emissions

are projected to decrease: from about 7 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 6 tonnes in 2030 for Metro Vancouver; from about 9 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 6.4 tonnes in 2030 for FVRD; and from about 28 tonnes per year in 2005 to about 19 tonnes in 2030 for Whatcom County. LFV per capita GHG emissions are about 9 tonnes in 2005 and projected to be about 7 tonnes in 2030.

The difference in Whatcom County

and Metro Vancouver-FVRD per capita GHG emissions is largely due to the greater presence of heavy industry in Whatcom County. For instance, emissions from the Whatcom County electric power generation and petroleum refining industries drive the per capita emissions up.

Figure 40: Trends in LFV GHG Emissions by Source

Figure 41: Trends in LFV GHG Emissions by Region



Summary of Emissions by Political Region Figure 42 compares the emissions of smog-forming pollutants and greenhouse gases to population, for each of the political regions on a single chart. In 2005, Metro Vancouver, FVRD, and Whatcom County make up 83%, 10%, and 7% of the LFV population, respectively. The larger than expected contribution of Whatcom County to airshed emissions (relative to population) can be explained by the existence of more heavy industry in that area. This fact underscores the importance of air quality planning on an “international” basis in the airshed.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SmogForming

Pollutants

GreenhouseGases

Population

Whatcom CountyFVRDMetro Vancouver

Figure 42: Smog Forming Pollutants, Greenhouse Gases, and Population by Region

3. Conclusions – The Role of the Emission Inventory / Forecast and Backcast in Air Quality Management

The emission inventory and associated trend analysis is an essential tool in Metro Vancouver’s integrated air quality management program. Together, they allow for: • identification of where action is

warranted in the airshed, both today and in the future;

• assessment of where significant

progress has been made in reducing emissions; and

• projection of future air emission levels and anticipated impacts of emission reduction measures.

An analysis of the emission inventory forecast results indicates a few key findings: Smog-Forming Pollutants • In 2005, light-duty vehicles were still

the largest source of smog-forming pollutants, followed by non-road equipment, solvent evaporation and marine vessels.

• Overall, smog-forming pollutants

show a declining trend until 2020, after which emissions begin to rise.

• New and existing federal emission

standards are expected to reduce smog-forming pollutant emissions from motor vehicles and non-road engines.

• In 2030, solvent evaporation is

projected to be the largest source of smog-forming pollutants, followed by agricultural sources and marine vessels. The predominance of these sources is due to a projected corresponding change in activity in these sectors, as well as emission reductions resulting from regulations in other sectors such as onroad motor vehicles and non-road engines.

• NOx emissions are projected to

decrease continuously over the 25 year forecast period, primarily due to strict emission standards for light and heavy duty vehicles and non-road engines and equipment. Marine vessels remain as the only major source of NOx with projected increase in emissions.

• There was a substantial decrease in

PM2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2005, due to reduced emissions from mobile and point sources. However, PM2.5 emissions are projected to increase between 2010 and 2030 due to expected increases in the marine


36

sector and area sources (e.g. heating, construction, burning) driven by growth in population and economic activity.

• SOx emissions declined substantially between 2000 and 2005. This was due to improved emissions control at refineries (both in Metro Vancouver and Whatcom County) and reduced production at the smelter in Whatcom County. Marine vessels became the most significant source of SOx emissions in 2005, and in the absence of new measures, their share is projected to increase substantially.

• VOC emissions show a declining

trend until 2010, after which the emissions are projected to increase due to increase in solvent evaporation.

• NH3 emissions are projected to

continue to increase in the future. Agricultural activities such as manure handling and fertilizer application are the major contributors to the ammonia emissions in the LFV.

Greenhouse Gases • In Metro Vancouver and FVRD, on-

road vehicles and heating (e.g. buildings) are the two major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Two cement plants also contribute significantly to the GHG emissions in Metro Vancouver. In Whatcom County, industrial sources such as refineries, the aluminum smelter and power plants are the most significant sources of GHG emissions.

• With the implementation of the

proposed tail-pipe standards, emissions from light-duty vehicles are projected to decline, with heating becoming the number one source of GHG emissions. GHG emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, non-road engines, marine vessels and aircraft are also projected to increase

steadily.

• GHG emissions have increased steadily between 1990 and 2000 in Metro Vancouver. In 2005, there was some reduction in GHG emissions due to reduced production at an electric power generation plant in Metro Vancouver and some reduction in fuel consumption (i.e. natural gas and gasoline) due to rising fuel prices.

• GHG emissions in both Metro

Vancouver and the FVRD have increased steadily from 1990 to 2010 – the time period for commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. While the Kyoto target called for a national reduction of six percent from 1990 levels by 2008 – 2012, GHG emissions in Metro Vancouver and FVRD will have risen by 22% over that time frame.

• In BC, the Kyoto targets have been

superceded by a provincial GHG target of 33% reduction (from 2007 levels) by 2020. With the implementation of the planned federal and provincial measures, the GHG emissions in the Canadian LFV are projected to hold fairly steady at 2007 levels. Therefore, there is a need for additional measures to be implemented in Metro Vancouver and FVRD in order to meet the Provincial GHG target of 33% reduction by 2020.

Information from this emission forecast may play an important role in developing and implementing emission reduction measures for Metro Vancouver. Additionally, as major GHG emission sources such as heating (e.g. buildings) and others continue to increase their activity, and as we move into an era of GHG regulations under Federal and Provincial initiatives, information from this emissions forecast will also be important in assessing what levels of GHG emission reductions may be feasible for this region.



4. References Chamber of Shipping of BC, 2007, “2005 - 2006 BC Ocean-Going Vessel Emissions Inventory” RWDI AIR Inc. Consulting Engineers & Scientists, 2007a, “2005 Nonroad Engine Fleet Characterization in the Lower Fraser Valley” RWDI AIR Inc. Consulting Engineers & Scientists, 2007b, “2005 Whatcom County Emission Inventory” USEPA Report EPA-454/R-00-002, “National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1998”, March 2000


38

Appendix A: Summary of 2005 Emissions

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory A - 1 & Forecast and Backcast

Table A - 1: 2005 Emission Inventory Summary

Smog-

Metro Vancouver CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Point Sources Pollutants

Bulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1,064 437 112 0 2 0 1,026 0 0 1,032 114Chemical Manufacturing 45 141 19 16 13 3 154 3 64,008 1 1 64,397 315Electric Power Generation 9 16 4 4 4 1 3 1 67,616 1 1 68,028 26Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 38 48 233 178 144 4 383 2 55,648 1 1 55,995 581Waste-to-Energy 31 465 9 9 7 108 20 1 115,800 0 3 116,746 601Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,775 3,628 1,006 438 140 198 144 7 2,028,134 1 1 2,028,591 4,117Paper and Allied Products 151 122 317 240 191 5 28 4 114,932 5 4 116,162 351Petroleum Products 261 301 133 95 61 581 323 6 467,964 7 5 469,504 1,272Primary Metal Industries 0 0Wood Products 385 180 1,326 637 288 12 846 11 129,158 10 7 131,471 1,337Miscellaneous Point Sources 383 232 277 197 139 20 1,955 5 227,319 160 5 232,099 2,351Sub-Total 4,078 5,135 4,389 2,250 1,100 932 3,860 39 3,271,605 186 27 3,284,025 11,065

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 803 246 52 0 651 1,924 2,172 3,479 130 115,400 2,627Burning 6,622 148 939 782 753 12 590 48 710 411 117 45,719 1,552Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,778 0 0 2 0 43 1,778Landfills 0 0 154 55 15 0 91 101 0 16,395 0 344,295 207Natural Sources 0 157 94 82 14 0 4,168 0 0 0 0 0 4,340Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 18,103 0 0 0 0 0 18,103Heating 4,481 4,995 787 758 754 140 451 396 4,718,869 474 90 4,756,641 6,736Miscellaneous Area Sources 74 2 5,909 2,003 663 0 576 1,859 0 2,524 0 53,009 3,100Sub-Total 11,176 5,303 8,686 3,926 2,251 152 26,409 4,329 4,721,751 23,286 337 5,315,108 38,444

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 169,957 11,198 268 268 131 70 13,601 937 4,317,924 325 582 4,505,287 25,937Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2,724 3,757 97 97 80 55 286 12 870,369 94 30 881,498 4,191Aircraft 4,958 970 28 28 28 87 826 0 181,742 29 17 187,503 1,911Rail 341 2,386 136 107 90 67 137 1 124,528 7 50 140,227 2,680Marine 895 7,263 463 463 428 3,824 276 4 351,963 22 43 365,879 11,796Non-Road 127,396 8,145 618 618 591 195 8,929 8 845,468 1,018 196 927,608 17,868Sub-Total 306,271 33,719 1,609 1,580 1,348 4,297 24,056 963 6,691,995 1,494 918 7,008,001 64,383

Metro Vancouver Total 321,526 44,156 14,685 7,757 4,699 5,381 54,325 5,331 14,685,350 24,966 1,282 15,607,135 113,893

Road Dust 19,937 3,821 594 594

Smog-

Fraser Valley Regional District CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Point Sources Pollutants

Bulk Shipping TerminalsChemical ManufacturingElectric Power GenerationMetal Foundries and Metal FabricationWaste-to-EnergyNon-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 23 8 29 17 5 11 1 0 12,244 3 0 12,310 24Paper and Allied ProductsPetroleum Products 95 23 10 7 3 14 3 0 12,093 2 0 12,221 43Primary Metal IndustriesWood Products 49 26 248 94 38 0 71 0 6,134 0 0 6,172 135Miscellaneous Point Sources 35 16 109 46 21 1 8 0 20,934 644 1 34,685 45Sub-Total 203 73 396 164 67 25 82 1 51,405 649 1 65,388 248

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 1,855 650 137 0 2,305 5,911 2,441 13,150 335 382,455 8,353Burning 2,037 47 180 143 141 8 210 14 180 145 31 12,760 421Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 343 0 0 0 0 0 343Landfills 0 0 10 4 1 0 17 19 0 2,614 0 54,894 37Natural Sources 0 380 0 0 0 0 10,073 0 0 0 0 0 10,453Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,177 0 0 0 0 0 2,177Heating 1,465 560 259 247 246 18 191 48 526,466 208 12 534,494 1,063Miscellaneous Area Sources 9 0 470 169 65 0 60 310 0 265 0 5,562 436Sub-Total 3,511 987 2,775 1,212 591 27 15,375 6,302 529,087 16,382 378 990,165 23,282

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 27,445 1,808 43 43 21 11 2,196 151 697,271 52 94 727,526 4,188Heavy-Duty Vehicles 750 1,034 27 27 22 15 79 3 239,482 26 8 242,544 1,153Aircraft 1,319 50 5 5 5 4 117 0 21,007 9 2 21,802 175Rail 156 1,092 62 49 41 31 63 0 56,998 3 23 64,183 1,227Marine 11 71 2 2 2 5 2 0 4,309 0 0 4,426 79Non-Road 20,389 1,571 157 157 151 45 1,680 2 165,580 130 46 182,579 3,448Sub-Total 50,069 5,626 295 282 241 111 4,136 157 1,184,645 221 173 1,243,060 10,270

FVRD Total 53,783 6,686 3,465 1,657 899 162 19,594 6,459 1,765,137 17,252 552 2,298,613 33,800

Road Dust 3,309 634 99 99

Table A: 2005 Emission Inventory Summary (metric tonnes)

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory A - 2


Smog-

Canadian Lower Fraser Valley CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Pollutants

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1,064 437 112 0 2 0 1,026 0 0 1,032 114Chemical Manufacturing 45 141 19 16 13 3 154 3 64,008 1 1 64,397 315Electric Power Generation 9 16 4 4 4 1 3 1 67,616 1 1 68,028 26Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 38 48 233 178 144 4 383 2 55,648 1 1 55,995 581Waste-to-Energy 31 465 9 9 7 108 20 1 115,800 0 3 116,746 601Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,798 3,636 1,035 455 145 209 145 7 2,040,378 4 1 2,040,901 4,141Paper and Allied Products 151 122 317 240 191 5 28 4 114,932 5 4 116,162 351Petroleum Products 356 324 144 102 64 595 326 7 480,057 9 5 481,725 1,316Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Wood Products 434 207 1,574 731 326 12 916 11 135,292 10 7 137,642 1,472Miscellaneous Point Sources 418 247 386 243 161 20 1,963 5 248,253 804 5 266,785 2,396Sub-Total 4,281 5,208 4,785 2,414 1,167 957 3,942 40 3,323,010 835 29 3,349,413 11,313

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 2,658 896 190 0 2,956 7,835 4,612 16,629 465 497,855 10,981Burning 8,659 195 1,120 925 894 20 800 63 890 556 148 58,479 1,973Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,121 0 0 2 0 43 2,121Landfills 0 0 164 59 16 0 108 120 0 19,009 0 399,189 244Natural Sources 0 538 94 82 14 0 14,241 0 0 0 0 0 14,793Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 20,280 0 0 0 0 0 20,280Heating 5,946 5,555 1,046 1,005 1,000 158 642 444 5,245,335 683 102 5,291,136 7,799Miscellaneous Area Sources 83 2 6,379 2,171 729 0 636 2,169 0 2,789 0 58,571 3,536Sub-Total 14,687 6,290 11,461 5,138 2,842 179 41,785 10,631 5,250,837 39,668 714 6,305,274 61,726

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 197,402 13,006 311 311 152 81 15,797 1,089 5,015,195 377 676 5,232,813 30,126Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,474 4,790 123 123 103 70 365 16 1,109,850 120 38 1,124,042 5,344Aircraft 6,277 1,019 33 33 32 91 943 0 202,749 38 19 209,304 2,086Rail 497 3,479 198 156 131 97 199 1 181,526 10 73 204,410 3,907Marine 906 7,334 464 464 430 3,829 279 4 356,272 22 44 370,305 11,875Non-Road 147,785 9,716 775 775 741 240 10,608 9 1,011,048 1,149 242 1,110,187 21,316Sub-Total 356,340 39,344 1,904 1,862 1,590 4,408 28,192 1,119 7,876,640 1,715 1,092 8,251,061 74,653

Canadian LFV Total 375,309 50,842 18,150 9,414 5,599 5,544 73,918 11,790 16,450,488 42,218 1,834 17,905,748 147,693

Road Dust 23,246 4,456 693 693

Smog-

Whatcom County CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Pollutants

Point SourcesBulk Shipping TerminalsChemical ManufacturingElectric Power Generation 19 158 32 32 32 19 5 23 906,906 235 24 919,135 235Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Waste-to-Energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Paper and Allied Products 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,227 0 0 11,293 8Petroleum Products 1,058 3,009 222 210 204 1,750 1,078 0 1,707,360 3 19 1,713,345 6,042Primary Metal Industries 10,308 95 171 118 55 1,609 33 0 166,428 0 0 166,428 1,792Wood Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 15Miscellaneous Point Sources 98 186 82 63 61 27 100 0 123,612 76 3 126,087 374Sub-Total 11,502 3,456 507 422 352 3,404 1,231 23 2,915,533 314 46 2,936,288 8,467

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 869 392 82 0 4,135 6,344 755 24,844 276 608,144 10,561Burning 1,583 48 194 165 155 8 223 10 7,463 108 24 17,295 445Gasoline Marketing 196 0 1Landfills 1 1 0 170 0 3,576 2Natural Sources 300 298 259 45 0 21,103 0 21,447Solvent Evaporation 1,785 0 1,7Heating 3,236 377 445 442 441 115 1,153 32 348,625 546 15 364,837 2,117Miscellaneous Area Sources 16 0 1,444 455 115 0 56 217 62 187 3 4,883 387Sub-Total 4,836 725 3,250 1,714 838 123 28,651 6,604 356,906 25,855 319 998,736 36,941

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 30,879 1,883 31 31 15 31 2,346 118 523,562 48 77 548,538 4,394Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,463 1,717 49 49 42 41 144 6 242,003 13 9 245,084 1,950Aircraft 415 103 3 3 3 8 84 0 34,431 11 3 35,660 197Rail 31 249 7 6 6 18 11 0 11,466 1 5 12,911 283Marine 106 1,041 96 96 86 1,038 39 2 70,803 5 3 71,957 2,206Non-Road 15,330 950 103 103 95 94 1,729 2 110,461 53 27 119,977 2,869Sub-Total 48,225 5,943 289 288 246 1,231 4,352 127 992,726 131 125 1,034,127 11,899

Whatcom County Total 64,564 10,124 4,046 2,424 1,436 4,758 34,235 6,754 4,265,165 26,300 489 4,969,151 57,307

Road Dust 3,760 721 29 29

Table A (cont'd): 2005 Emission Inventory Summary (metric tonnes)

96

85


Smog-

Lower Fraser Valley CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Pollutants

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1,064 437 112 0 2 0 1,026 0 0 1,032 114Chemical Manufacturing 45 141 19 16 13 3 154 3 64,008 1 1 64,397 315Electric Power Generation 28 174 36 36 36 20 8 24 974,523 236 25 987,163 261Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 38 48 233 178 144 4 383 2 55,648 1 1 55,995 581Waste-to-Energy 31 465 9 9 7 108 20 1 115,800 0 3 116,746 601Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,798 3,636 1,035 455 145 209 145 7 2,040,378 4 1 2,040,901 4,141Paper and Allied Products 171 130 317 240 191 5 28 4 126,160 5 4 127,455 359Petroleum Products 1,415 3,334 366 311 268 2,345 1,404 7 2,187,417 11 24 2,195,071 7,358Primary Metal Industries 10,308 95 171 118 55 1,609 33 0 166,428 0 0 166,428 1,792Wood Products 434 207 1,574 731 326 12 932 11 135,292 10 7 137,642 1,488Miscellaneous Point Sources 516 433 468 305 222 47 2,063 5 371,865 881 8 392,872 2,770Sub-Total 15,783 8,664 5,292 2,836 1,519 4,361 5,172 63 6,238,544 1,150 74 6,285,701 19,780

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 3,528 1,288 272 0 7,091 14,179 5,368 41,473 741 1,105,999 21,542Burning 10,242 243 1,313 1,090 1,050 29 1,023 73 8,353 664 172 75,774 2,418Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,317 0 0 2 0 43 2,317Landfills 0 0 164 59 16 0 109 122 0 19,179 0 402,765 246Natural Sources 0 838 392 341 59 0 35,344 0 0 0 0 0 36,240Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 22,065 0 0 0 0 0 22,065Heating 9,182 5,931 1,490 1,447 1,441 273 1,795 476 5,593,960 1,229 117 5,655,973 9,916Miscellaneous Area Sources 99 3 7,823 2,627 843 0 692 2,385 62 2,976 3 63,454 3,923Sub-Total 19,523 7,015 14,711 6,852 3,680 302 70,436 17,235 5,607,743 65,523 1,033 7,304,010 98,668

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 228,281 14,889 342 342 167 113 18,144 1,207 5,538,757 425 754 5,781,352 34,520Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4,937 6,508 172 172 144 111 509 22 1,351,854 133 47 1,369,126 7,293Aircraft 6,692 1,122 36 36 35 98 1,027 0 237,180 49 22 244,964 2,283Rail 529 3,727 205 162 137 116 210 1 192,992 11 78 217,321 4,190Marine 1,012 8,375 560 560 516 4,867 318 6 427,076 27 47 442,262 14,081Non-Road 163,116 10,666 878 878 836 335 12,337 11 1,121,508 1,202 269 1,230,164 24,185Sub-Total 404,566 45,287 2,193 2,150 1,835 5,639 32,544 1,247 8,869,366 1,846 1,216 9,285,188 86,552

LFV Total 439,872 60,966 22,196 11,838 7,035 10,302 108,153 18,544 20,715,653 68,518 2,324 22,874,899 205,000

Road Dust 27,007 5,176 722 722

Smog-

Lower Fraser Valley CO NOx Part PM10 PM2.5 SOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Forming

Pollutants

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Chemical Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electric Power Generation 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 1 4 0Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Waste-to-Energy 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1 6 5 4 2 2 0 0 10 0 0 9 2Paper and Allied Products 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0Petroleum Products 0 5 2 3 4 23 1 0 11 0 1 10 4Primary Metal Industries 2 0 1 1 1 16 0 0 1 0 0 1 1Wood Products 0 0 7 6 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1Miscellaneous Point Sources 0 1 2 3 3 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 1Sub-Total 4 14 24 24 22 42 5 0 30 2 3 27 10

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 16 11 4 0 7 76 0 61 32 5 11Burning 2 0 6 9 15 0 1 0 0 1 7 0 1Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1Landfills 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 28 0 2 0Natural Sources 0 1 2 3 1 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 18Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 11Heating 2 10 7 12 20 3 2 3 27 2 5 25 5Miscellaneous Area Sources 0 0 35 22 12 0 1 13 0 4 0 0 2Sub-Total 4 12 66 58 52 3 65 93 27 96 44 32 48

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 52 24 2 3 2 1 17 7 27 1 32 25 17Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1 11 1 1 2 1 0 0 7 0 2 6 4Aircraft 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1Rail 0 6 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 1 2Marine 0 14 3 5 7 47 0 0 2 0 2 2 7Non-Road 37 17 4 7 12 3 11 0 5 2 12 5 12Sub-Total 92 74 10 18 26 55 30 7 43 3 52 41

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Table A (cont'd): 2005 Emission Inventory Summary (metric tonnes)

2005 Emission Inventory Summary (Percent of LFV Emissions, Excluding Road Dust)

42


Appendix B: Summary of Emissions (1990 – 2030)

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory B - 1 & Forecast and Backcast

Table B - 1: Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 76 33 46 45 41 49 56 63 70 Electric Power Generation 187 431 123 9 40 40 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 616 359 34 38 41 42 44 46 47 Waste-to-Energy 17 14 26 31 31 31 31 31 31 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 509 590 2,241 2,775 2,923 2,783 2,787 2,791 2,795 Paper and Allied Products 222 175 178 151 122 123 123 124 124 Petroleum Products 597 267 203 261 267 272 275 279 283 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 1,830 706 357 385 445 469 476 482 488 Misc. Point Sources 167 189 165 383 458 470 482 494 507 Sub-Total 4,221 2,765 3,373 4,078 4,369 4,280 4,276 4,311 4,346

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 4,492 3,550 3,541 6,622 4,891 4,891 4,891 4,891 4,891 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 3,726 3,601 4,567 4,481 4,667 4,870 5,213 5,558 5,888 Miscellaneous Area Sources 106 127 103 74 83 88 94 99 104 Sub-Total 8,324 7,278 8,211 11,176 9,641 9,849 10,198 10,549 10,884

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 474,094 300,148 232,233 169,957 129,443 135,821 129,063 131,307 138,309Heavy-Duty Vehicles 13,805 11,521 5,192 2,724 1,625 1,396 1,484 1,604 1,789Aircraft 5,475 3,586 5,302 4,958 5,601 6,068 6,561 7,770 8,686 Railways 532 558 478 341 351 357 359 366 370 Marine 728 818 899 895 1,009 1,138 1,254 1,376 1,494 Non-road 101,717 112,138 114,474 127,396 123,980 128,681 137,447 147,726 158,653 Sub-Total 596,350 428,768 358,578 306,271 262,009 273,461 276,167 290,149 309,302

Metro Vancouver 608,895 438,811 370,163 321,526 276,019 287,591 290,642 305,008 324,532

Fraser Valley Regional District 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - 0 - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5 5 25 23 23 24 24 24 24 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 82 99 82 95 109 120 128 137 146 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 120 120 6 49 53 61 63 65 67 Misc. Point Sources 1,381 1,381 1,556 35 22 24 25 26 28 Sub-Total 1,589 1,606 1,669 203 208 228 240 252 264

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 1,107 2,589 1,053 2,037 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 451 1,358 1,440 1,465 1,458 1,481 1,537 1,594 1,649 Miscellaneous Area Sources 12 16 12 9 10 11 12 13 14 Sub-Total 1,569 3,962 2,506 3,511 3,918 3,942 3,999 4,057 4,113

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 76,558 48,469 37,502 27,445 20,903 21,933 20,841 21,204 22,335Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,798 3,170 1,429 750 447 384 408 441 492Aircraft 1,254 942 1,511 1,319 1,498 1,601 1,705 2,064 2,306 Railways 248 260 223 156 161 164 165 168 169 Marine 8 10 9 11 12 13 13 14 15 Non-road 16,859 18,262 18,466 20,389 19,846 20,565 21,736 23,124 24,626 Sub-Total 98,724 71,113 59,140 50,069 42,866 44,659 44,869 47,015 49,943

FVRD 101,882 76,681 63,316 53,783 46,992 48,829 49,108 51,324 54,320

Table B-1: Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

December 2007 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory B - 2


Canadian Lower Fraser Valley 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 76 34 46 45 41 49 56 63 70 Electric Power Generation 187 431 123 9 40 40 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 616 359 34 38 41 42 44 46 47 Waste-to-Energy 17 14 26 31 31 31 31 31 31 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 514 596 2,266 2,798 2,946 2,807 2,811 2,815 2,819 Paper and Allied Products 222 175 178 151 122 123 123 124 124 Petroleum Products 680 366 286 356 376 391 404 416 429 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 1,950 826 363 434 499 530 539 546 554 Misc. Point Sources 1,548 1,570 1,721 418 481 493 506 520 535 Sub-Total 5,810 4,371 5,043 4,281 4,577 4,508 4,516 4,562 4,610


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 550,652 348,616 269,735 197,402 150,346 157,753 149,904 152,510 160,643 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 17,603 14,690 6,621 3,474 2,073 1,781 1,892 2,045 2,282 Aircraft 6,729 4,529 6,813 6,277 7,098 7,669 8,266 9,834 10,992 Railways 780 818 701 497 512 521 524 533 539 Marine 736 827 908 906 1,021 1,150 1,267 1,391 1,509 Non-road 118,575 130,400 132,940 147,785 143,825 149,246 159,183 170,850 183,279 Sub-Total 695,075 499,881 417,719 356,340 304,876 318,120 321,036 337,164 359,245

Canadian LFV Total 710,778 515,492 433,478 375,309 323,012 336,419 339,750 356,332 378,852

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 5 54 259 19 16 22 25 16 11 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 1 3 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 5 8 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 4,717 313 891 19 - - - - - Petroleum Products 589 470 660 1,058 1,058 1,058 1,058 1,058 1,058 Primary Metal Industries 39,754 22,551 31,684 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 Wood Products 40 63 61 - - - - - - Other 57 168 93 98 91 97 203 215 220 Sub-Total 45,163 23,625 33,655 11,502 11,473 11,486 11,594 11,598 11,598


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 68,073 61,596 50,257 30,879 23,338 19,984 18,541 18,662 19,340 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 8,573 6,257 3,480 1,463 924 699 664 677 707 Aircraft 466 506 536 415 497 534 558 564 578 Railways 25 24 28 31 34 37 39 43 47 Marine 73 83 96 106 123 145 165 185 204 Non-road 15,454 15,443 14,876 15,330 17,042 17,738 18,696 19,842 21,090 Sub-Total 92,664 83,909 69,273 48,225 41,957 39,136 38,663 39,973 41,967

Whatcom County 150,704 121,096 112,720 64,564 58,622 56,181 56,171 57,828 60,171

Table B-1 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (metric tonnes)


Lower Fraser Valley 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 76 34 46 45 41 49 56 63 70 Electric Power Generation 193 485 381 28 56 62 25 16 11 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 616 359 34 38 41 42 44 46 47 Waste to Energy 17 16 26 31 31 31 31 31 31 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 514 600 2,274 2,798 2,946 2,807 2,811 2,815 2,819 Paper and Allied Products 4,939 488 1,069 171 122 123 123 124 124 Petroleum Products 1,268 836 946 1,415 1,434 1,450 1,462 1,475 1,487 Primary Metal Industries 39,754 22,551 31,684 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 Wood Products 1,990 888 423 434 499 530 539 546 554 Other 1,605 1,738 1,813 516 571 590 709 736 755 Sub-Total 50,973 27,996 38,698 15,783 16,050 15,993 16,110 16,160 16,208


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 618,725 410,212 319,992 228,281 173,683 177,737 168,445 171,172 179,983 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 26,176 20,948 10,101 4,937 2,996 2,479 2,556 2,722 2,989 Aircraft 7,195 5,035 7,349 6,692 7,596 8,203 8,824 10,398 11,570 Railways 805 843 729 529 546 557 563 577 586 Marine 809 910 1,004 1,012 1,144 1,296 1,432 1,575 1,714 Non-road 134,029 145,843 147,816 163,116 160,868 166,984 177,879 190,693 204,369 Sub-Total 787,739 583,790 486,991 404,566 346,833 357,256 359,699 377,137 401,212

LFV Total 861,481 636,588 546,199 439,872 381,633 392,600 395,921 414,160 439,023


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Chemical Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electric Power Generation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Waste to Energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Paper and Allied Products 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Petroleum Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Primary Metal Industries 5 4 6 2 3 3 3 2 2Wood Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Total 6 4 7 4 4 4 4 4 4

Area SourcesAgricultural 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Burning 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Landfills 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Natural Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Heating 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3Miscellaneous Area Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Total 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 72 64 59 52 46 45 43 41 41Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1Aircraft 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3Railways 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Marine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Non-road 16 23 27 37 42 43 45 46 47Sub-Total 91 92 89 92 91 91 91 91 9

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-1 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

1


Lower Fraser Valley 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 40 48 54 60 66 Electric Power Generation 54 59 22 14 9 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 40 41 42 43 45 Waste-to-Energy 31 31 30 30 30 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,889 2,726 2,703 2,681 2,658 Paper and Allied Products 120 119 119 118 117 Petroleum Products 1,427 1,439 1,447 1,455 1,463 Primary Metal Industries 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 Wood Products 489 515 519 520 523 Other 556 566 665 680 694 Sub-Total 15,954 15,852 15,910 15,909 15,913

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 7,191 7,240 7,287 7,336 7,384 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 8,965 9,298 9,749 10,205 10,711 Miscellaneous Area Sources 103 110 117 123 129 Sub-Total 16,260 16,647 17,153 17,663 18,224

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 171,517 144,116 150,720 150,367 156,329 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2,945 2,351 2,171 2,293 2,526 Aircraft 7,248 7,797 8,345 9,815 10,837 Railways 474 483 487 497 504 Marine 1,031 1,110 1,167 1,230 1,292 Other Nonroad Equipment 152,567 157,211 165,830 176,808 188,140 Sub-Total 335,781 313,068 328,719 341,010 359,627

LFV Total 367,995 345,567 361,782 374,582 393,764

Table B-1 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 41 49 57 64 71 Electric Power Generation 57 66 30 19 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 41 43 45 47 50 Waste-to-Energy 31 31 31 31 31 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,946 2,808 2,813 2,818 2,823 Paper and Allied Products 123 123 124 125 126 Petroleum Products 1,435 1,455 1,471 1,488 1,506 Primary Metal Industries 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 10,308 Wood Products 501 537 552 564 578 Other 586 617 767 814 845 Sub-Total 16,070 16,038 16,199 16,280 16,353

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 10,842 10,892 10,942 10,993 11,043 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 10,087 10,874 11,856 12,866 13,734 Miscellaneous Area Sources 114 124 134 144 152 Sub-Total 21,043 21,890 22,932 24,003 24,929

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 182,059 189,658 183,166 190,948 206,107 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,345 2,825 2,956 3,215 3,585 Aircraft 7,715 8,411 9,126 10,874 12,224 Railways 829 846 855 875 890 Marine 1,211 1,524 1,747 1,976 2,202 Other Nonroad Equipment 164,545 173,306 187,256 203,683 220,747 Sub-Total 359,705 376,570 385,105 411,571 445,755

LFV Total 396,818 414,498 424,237 451,854 487,037

Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 2: Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 229 114 140 141 126 95 79 62 46 Electric Power Generation 491 1,393 235 16 75 75 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 119 52 52 48 51 41 33 26 18 Waste-to-Energy 476 474 451 465 191 191 191 191 191 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5,068 5,176 3,743 3,628 3,731 3,636 3,639 3,642 3,646 Paper and Allied Products 160 170 155 122 88 70 53 36 19 Petroleum Products 1,135 542 328 301 290 237 184 132 79 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 729 309 210 180 194 168 143 119 94 Misc. Point Sources 208 231 211 232 251 217 193 169 145 Sub-Total 8,615 8,461 5,526 5,135 4,997 4,732 4,517 4,378 4,238

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 104 99 99 148 123 123 124 124 124 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 154 154 154 157 157 157 157 157 157 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 3,787 4,730 5,049 4,995 5,471 5,335 5,490 5,648 5,785 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 Sub-Total 4,047 4,986 5,305 5,303 5,753 5,618 5,774 5,932 6,070

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 33,383 24,077 17,494 11,198 8,027 6,636 4,904 4,163 4,107 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 11,163 5,505 4,965 3,757 2,487 1,467 891 566 345 Aircraft 953 926 1,002 970 1,091 1,219 1,363 1,530 1,711 Railways 3,295 3,458 2,962 2,386 2,093 1,979 1,858 1,769 1,681 Marine 5,758 6,501 7,379 7,263 7,834 8,758 9,617 10,563 11,468 Non-road 6,869 7,745 8,519 8,145 6,556 4,868 3,908 3,588 3,555 Sub-Total 61,421 48,211 42,322 33,719 28,087 24,928 22,540 22,179 22,866

Metro Vancouver 74,084 61,659 53,154 44,156 38,837 35,278 32,832 32,488 33,174


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - 1 - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 7 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 28 66 17 23 25 27 29 31 33 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 7 7 7 26 28 32 34 34 35 Misc. Point Sources 182 183 236 16 16 17 18 20 21 Sub-Total 224 264 271 73 77 85 89 94 99

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 31 54 31 47 53 53 53 53 53 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 478 718 748 560 610 597 614 632 648 Miscellaneous Area Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub-Total 889 1,153 1,159 987 1,044 1,030 1,048 1,065 1,081

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 5,391 3,888 2,825 1,808 1,296 1,072 792 672 663 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,071 1,515 1,366 1,034 684 404 245 156 95 Aircraft 25 26 32 50 62 66 72 81 87 Railways 1,534 1,610 1,379 1,092 958 906 850 810 769 Marine 51 64 62 71 77 81 85 91 96 Non-road 1,369 1,528 1,646 1,571 1,368 1,104 902 802 768 Sub-Total 11,440 8,630 7,311 5,626 4,446 3,632 2,946 2,612 2,478

FVRD 12,554 10,047 8,741 6,686 5,566 4,747 4,083 3,772 3,658

Table B-2: Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 229 115 140 141 126 95 79 62 46 Electric Power Generation 491 1,393 235 16 75 75 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 119 52 52 48 51 41 33 26 18 Waste-to-Energy 476 474 451 465 191 191 191 191 191 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5,075 5,184 3,753 3,636 3,739 3,644 3,648 3,651 3,654 Paper and Allied Products 160 170 155 122 88 70 53 36 19 Petroleum Products 1,164 608 345 324 315 264 214 163 113 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 736 316 218 207 222 200 177 153 130 Misc. Point Sources 391 414 447 247 266 234 211 189 166 Sub-Total 8,840 8,726 5,796 5,208 5,074 4,817 4,607 4,472 4,337


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 38,774 27,964 20,319 13,006 9,323 7,708 5,696 4,835 4,770 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 14,234 7,019 6,331 4,790 3,171 1,871 1,136 721 439 Aircraft 978 952 1,035 1,019 1,152 1,286 1,435 1,611 1,798 Railways 4,828 5,068 4,342 3,479 3,051 2,885 2,708 2,579 2,450 Marine 5,809 6,565 7,442 7,334 7,911 8,840 9,702 10,654 11,564 Non-road 8,238 9,272 10,165 9,716 7,924 5,971 4,810 4,390 4,323 Sub-Total 72,861 56,841 49,634 39,344 32,533 28,560 25,487 24,791 25,344


Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 24 368 1,581 158 130 185 209 131 90 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 56 44 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 41 74 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 239 161 164 8 - - - - - Petroleum Products 3,790 2,354 2,866 3,009 3,009 3,009 3,009 3,009 3,009 Primary Metal Industries 56 50 56 95 95 95 95 95 95 Wood Products 32 5 5 - - - - - - Other 395 555 272 186 150 159 507 540 546 Sub-Total 4,592 3,577 5,018 3,456 3,384 3,449 3,821 3,776 3,740

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 90 102 80 48 52 54 57 60 63 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 312 312 312 300 300 300 300 300 300 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 393 381 356 377 407 444 479 514 548 Miscellaneous Area Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub-Total 795 795 748 725 759 799 837 874 912

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 4,351 3,613 2,819 1,883 1,422 1,086 858 758 742 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2,221 2,177 2,026 1,717 1,081 572 308 189 121 Aircraft 116 126 133 103 123 132 139 140 143 Railways 199 193 220 249 217 218 216 223 228 Marine 699 792 977 1,041 1,179 1,404 1,609 1,814 2,018 Non-road 1,177 1,103 1,039 950 879 708 585 530 516 Sub-Total 8,763 8,004 7,215 5,943 4,902 4,121 3,714 3,653 3,768

Whatcom County 14,150 12,376 12,982 10,124 9,045 8,369 8,372 8,303 8,420

Table B-2 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 229 115 140 141 126 95 79 62 46 Electric Power Generation 514 1,762 1,816 174 205 260 209 131 90 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 119 52 52 48 51 41 33 26 18 Waste to Energy 532 518 451 465 191 191 191 191 191 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5,075 5,225 3,827 3,636 3,739 3,644 3,648 3,651 3,654 Paper and Allied Products 399 331 319 130 88 70 53 36 19 Petroleum Products 4,954 2,962 3,211 3,334 3,325 3,274 3,223 3,173 3,122 Primary Metal Industries 56 50 56 95 95 95 95 95 95 Wood Products 768 320 223 207 222 200 177 153 130 Other 786 969 718 433 416 394 718 729 713 Sub-Total 13,432 12,303 10,815 8,664 8,458 8,266 8,428 8,248 8,078


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 43,125 31,577 23,139 14,889 10,745 8,794 6,554 5,594 5,511 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 16,455 9,196 8,357 6,508 4,252 2,443 1,444 910 561 Aircraft 1,093 1,077 1,168 1,122 1,276 1,418 1,573 1,751 1,941 Railways 5,027 5,261 4,562 3,727 3,269 3,103 2,924 2,802 2,678 Marine 6,508 7,357 8,419 8,375 9,091 10,243 11,311 12,468 13,582 Non-road 9,415 10,376 11,205 10,666 8,803 6,680 5,395 4,920 4,839 Sub-Total 81,624 64,844 56,848 45,287 37,435 32,681 29,201 28,444 29,112

LFV Total 100,788 84,081 74,876 60,966 53,449 48,394 45,287 44,563 45,252





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Table B-2 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

8

8

14



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 124 93 76 59 43 Electric Power Generation 194 240 184 112 77 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 50 40 32 24 17 Waste-to-Energy 187 185 184 182 180 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,097 1,969 1,938 1,907 1,876 Paper and Allied Products 86 68 51 34 18 Petroleum Products 3,207 3,207 3,208 3,165 3,116 Primary Metal Industries 95 95 95 95 95 Wood Products 218 194 170 146 122 Other 400 372 649 642 626 Sub-Total 6,658 6,464 6,588 6,368 6,171

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 198 201 204 207 210 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources 838 838 838 838 838 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 6,057 5,795 5,850 5,934 5,972 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3 3 3 3 4 Sub-Total 7,096 6,837 6,896 6,982 7,023

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 10,673 7,080 6,365 5,301 5,128 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4,114 2,302 1,380 855 501 Aircraft 1,218 1,349 1,489 1,652 1,817 Railways 2,800 2,453 2,188 1,770 1,458 Marine 8,140 7,165 6,060 5,132 4,796 Other Nonroad Equipment 8,460 6,351 5,070 4,588 4,479 Sub-Total 35,405 26,701 22,552 19,299 18,178

LFV Total 49,159 40,003 36,036 32,649 31,372

Table B-2 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1 1 1 1 1 Chemical Manufacturing 126 96 79 63 46 Electric Power Generation 219 286 246 158 108 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 51 42 34 27 19 Waste-to-Energy 191 191 191 191 191 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 3,739 3,645 3,650 3,654 3,658 Paper and Allied Products 88 71 54 37 19 Petroleum Products 3,325 3,275 3,226 3,176 3,127 Primary Metal Industries 95 95 95 95 95 Wood Products 223 202 180 157 134 Other 434 422 816 853 839 Sub-Total 8,493 8,326 8,571 8,411 8,238

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 261 264 267 270 273 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources 838 838 838 838 838 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 6,601 6,601 6,934 7,279 7,591 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3 3 4 4 4 Sub-Total 7,703 7,706 8,043 8,391 8,706

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 10,937 9,052 6,884 6,043 6,133 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4,439 2,593 1,552 1,003 644 Aircraft 1,295 1,454 1,627 1,831 2,053 Railways 3,823 3,633 3,429 3,293 3,151 Marine 9,682 12,210 14,024 15,939 17,809 Other Nonroad Equipment 8,985 6,935 5,692 5,274 5,251 Sub-Total 39,162 35,876 33,208 33,383 35,043

LFV Total 55,357 51,908 49,821 50,184 51,986

Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 3: Trends in Total Particulate Matter Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1,359 1,235 1,367 1,064 784 785 786 787 787 Chemical Manufacturing 44 21 9 19 21 24 27 30 33 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 351 300 169 233 242 251 261 272 282 Waste-to-Energy 16 7 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 885 982 810 1,006 1,057 1,050 1,074 1,096 1,117 Paper and Allied Products 363 498 370 317 297 302 307 311 316 Petroleum Products 516 361 155 133 135 136 136 137 138 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 3,247 2,411 1,637 1,326 1,114 1,191 1,213 1,230 1,249 Misc. Point Sources 614 627 407 277 266 285 300 318 336 Sub-Total 7,439 6,580 5,026 4,389 3,945 4,054 4,115 4,190 4,269

Area SourcesAgricultural 656 693 760 803 857 899 941 981 1,022 Burning 633 456 454 939 648 648 649 649 649 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 182 144 94 154 193 145 145 145 145 Natural Sources 259 427 332 94 278 278 278 278 278 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 650 567 780 787 802 823 865 907 948 Miscellaneous Area Sources 6,238 5,341 5,148 5,909 6,061 6,763 7,222 7,698 8,171 Sub-Total 8,617 7,628 7,568 8,686 8,839 9,556 10,099 10,657 11,212

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 416 378 349 268 269 276 289 305 323 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 808 263 150 97 58 39 33 32 33 Aircraft 30 24 30 28 32 35 38 44 49 Railways 101 110 104 136 175 174 205 214 239 Marine 358 391 451 463 538 629 709 795 875 Non-road 746 757 691 618 554 442 340 297 283 Sub-Total 2,459 1,923 1,776 1,609 1,626 1,594 1,615 1,688 1,802

Metro Vancouver 18,515 16,131 14,370 14,685 14,409 15,204 15,828 16,535 17,283

Road Dust 15,112 17,590 18,914 19,937 21,112 22,492 23,963 25,532 27,204



Area SourcesAgricultural 1,549 1,628 1,791 1,855 1,981 2,075 2,169 2,260 2,351 Burning 168 405 150 180 250 250 250 250 250 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 7 8 8 10 12 13 13 14 11 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 76 257 288 259 255 258 266 274 282 Miscellaneous Area Sources 290 429 412 470 486 543 580 619 658 Sub-Total 2,090 2,726 2,648 2,775 2,984 3,138 3,279 3,417 3,552

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 67 61 56 43 43 44 47 49 52 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 222 72 41 27 16 11 9 9 9 Aircraft 4 3 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 Railways 47 51 49 62 80 79 94 98 109 Marine 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Non-road 196 202 184 157 133 100 72 56 47 Sub-Total 537 391 336 295 279 243 229 222 228

FVRD 3,307 3,981 3,644 3,465 3,668 3,835 3,986 4,138 4,302

Road Dust 2,508 2,919 3,139 3,309 3,506 3,738 3,985 4,249 4,530

Table B-3: Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1,359 1,235 1,367 1,064 784 785 786 787 787 Chemical Manufacturing 44 22 9 19 21 24 27 30 33 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 351 300 169 233 242 251 261 272 282 Waste-to-Energy 16 7 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 933 1,032 834 1,035 1,086 1,081 1,106 1,129 1,152 Paper and Allied Products 363 498 370 317 297 302 307 311 316 Petroleum Products 542 473 260 144 146 148 150 152 153 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 3,571 2,808 1,940 1,574 1,374 1,488 1,521 1,546 1,574 Misc. Point Sources 896 933 635 386 369 399 424 454 484 Sub-Total 8,118 7,444 5,686 4,785 4,350 4,509 4,593 4,689 4,791

Area SourcesAgricultural 2,205 2,321 2,551 2,658 2,839 2,974 3,110 3,241 3,373 Burning 800 861 603 1,120 898 898 898 899 899 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 189 151 102 164 205 157 158 159 156 Natural Sources 259 427 332 94 278 278 278 278 278 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 727 823 1,068 1,046 1,057 1,081 1,131 1,181 1,230 Miscellaneous Area Sources 6,528 5,770 5,560 6,379 6,546 7,305 7,802 8,317 8,829 Sub-Total 10,707 10,354 10,216 11,461 11,823 12,694 13,377 14,075 14,764

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 483 439 405 311 312 320 335 354 375 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,030 336 191 123 74 50 43 41 42 Aircraft 34 27 35 33 37 41 44 52 58 Railways 148 161 153 198 255 253 298 312 348 Marine 359 392 453 464 540 631 711 797 877 Non-road 942 959 876 775 687 543 412 353 331 Sub-Total 2,996 2,314 2,112 1,904 1,905 1,837 1,844 1,909 2,030


Road Dust 17,620 20,510 22,054 23,246 24,618 26,230 27,948 29,781 31,734

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - 55 61 32 26 37 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 3 2 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 48 62 75 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 264 98 73 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 564 200 211 222 222 222 222 222 222 Primary Metal Industries 683 354 645 171 171 171 171 171 171 Wood Products 142 151 74 - - - - - - Other 202 26 30 82 86 90 98 102 106 Sub-Total 1,906 948 1,168 507 506 521 534 522 518

Area SourcesAgricultural 688 767 807 869 921 982 1,042 1,099 1,157 Burning 440 482 444 194 212 224 235 247 258 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 310 310 310 298 298 298 298 298 298 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 1,487 1,528 1,112 445 481 524 566 606 647 Miscellaneous Area Sources 1,028 1,200 1,342 1,444 1,561 1,703 1,839 1,970 2,103 Sub-Total 3,953 4,286 4,015 3,250 3,473 3,731 3,979 4,219 4,463


Whatcom County 6,300 5,629 5,519 4,046 4,250 4,513 4,772 5,010 5,266

Road Dust 3,155 3,536 3,752 3,760 4,160 4,603 5,092 5,633 6,232

Table B-3 (cont'd): Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1,359 1,235 1,367 1,064 784 785 786 787 787 Chemical Manufacturing 44 22 9 19 21 24 27 30 33 Electric Power Generation 43 192 160 36 46 57 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 351 300 169 233 242 251 261 272 282 Waste to Energy 19 9 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 981 1,094 909 1,035 1,086 1,081 1,106 1,129 1,152 Paper and Allied Products 627 596 442 317 297 302 307 311 316 Petroleum Products 1,106 674 471 366 368 371 372 374 376 Primary Metal Industries 683 354 645 171 171 171 171 171 171 Wood Products 3,712 2,959 2,014 1,574 1,374 1,488 1,521 1,546 1,574 Other 1,098 960 664 468 455 489 522 556 589 Sub-Total 10,024 8,392 6,854 5,292 4,855 5,029 5,126 5,211 5,308

Area SourcesAgricultural 2,892 3,088 3,359 3,528 3,759 3,956 4,152 4,340 4,530 Burning 1,240 1,343 1,047 1,313 1,110 1,122 1,134 1,145 1,157 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 189 151 102 164 205 157 158 159 156 Natural Sources 569 736 641 392 576 576 576 576 576 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 2,214 2,352 2,180 1,490 1,538 1,605 1,697 1,788 1,877 Miscellaneous Area Sources 7,556 6,970 6,903 7,823 8,108 9,008 9,641 10,287 10,932 Sub-Total 14,660 14,640 14,231 14,711 15,296 16,425 17,357 18,294 19,227

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 547 494 456 342 344 354 371 392 416 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,168 451 264 172 104 68 56 53 55 Aircraft 37 31 39 36 40 44 48 55 62 Railways 153 166 159 205 262 259 304 318 355 Marine 434 472 539 560 650 759 856 959 1,055 Non-road 1,098 1,096 992 878 776 614 466 400 374 Sub-Total 3,437 2,709 2,447 2,193 2,177 2,098 2,103 2,178 2,316

LFV Total 28,122 25,741 23,533 22,196 22,328 23,553 24,586 25,684 26,851

Road Dust 20,775 24,046 25,805 27,007 28,778 30,833 33,041 35,414 37,966




Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Aircraft 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Railways 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Marine 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4Non-road 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1Sub-Total 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions, Excluding Road Dust)

Table B-3 (cont'd): Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (metric tonnes)

0

12

9




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 769 763 756 749 742 Chemical Manufacturing 20 23 26 29 32 Electric Power Generation 44 53 37 23 15 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 238 244 251 259 266 Waste-to-Energy 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 363 348 362 373 384 Paper and Allied Products 291 293 295 297 298 Petroleum Products 366 366 366 367 367 Primary Metal Industries 171 171 171 171 171 Wood Products 954 1,051 1,069 1,079 1,091 Other 442 469 494 519 547 Sub-Total 3,668 3,792 3,838 3,874 3,922

Area SourcesAgricultural 3,728 3,899 4,065 4,222 4,379 Burning 804 815 827 838 849 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 196 150 149 150 145 Natural Sources 392 392 392 392 392 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,433 1,473 1,530 1,590 1,656 Miscellaneous Area Sources 7,849 8,617 9,104 9,594 10,121 Sub-Total 14,402 15,346 16,067 16,786 17,543

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 337 339 348 364 382 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 95 61 49 46 46 Aircraft 39 42 46 52 58 Railways 245 232 268 278 310 Marine 582 187 196 208 215 Other Nonroad Equipment 744 583 437 372 345 Sub-Total 2,040 1,443 1,344 1,319 1,356

LFV Total 20,110 20,581 21,249 21,979 22,821

Road Dust 27,999 29,236 30,625 32,230 34,051

Table B-3 (cont'd): Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 785 786 787 788 789 Chemical Manufacturing 21 25 28 32 36 Electric Power Generation 49 62 49 32 22 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 244 256 269 283 298 Waste-to-Energy 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,088 1,087 1,117 1,146 1,176 Paper and Allied Products 299 307 315 324 332 Petroleum Products 369 371 373 376 378 Primary Metal Industries 171 171 171 171 171 Wood Products 1,380 1,510 1,560 1,603 1,650 Other 468 513 559 607 653 Sub-Total 4,882 5,097 5,239 5,370 5,514

Area SourcesAgricultural 3,774 4,024 4,278 4,530 4,789 Burning 1,425 1,437 1,449 1,461 1,472 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 207 162 164 168 167 Natural Sources 724 724 724 724 724 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,605 1,707 1,838 1,972 2,087 Miscellaneous Area Sources 8,345 9,465 10,344 11,270 12,153 Sub-Total 16,080 17,518 18,797 20,124 21,393

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 351 367 394 428 465 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 113 75 63 61 65 Aircraft 41 45 50 58 65 Railways 280 277 321 334 370 Marine 701 917 1,083 1,254 1,419 Other Nonroad Equipment 794 638 492 429 406 Sub-Total 2,279 2,319 2,403 2,564 2,789

LFV Total 23,242 24,935 26,439 28,058 29,696

Road Dust 29,349 31,958 34,961 38,315 41,990

Trends in Particulate Matter Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 4: Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 578 488 578 437 246 247 247 247 247 Chemical Manufacturing 19 10 7 16 17 20 23 25 28 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 211 166 88 178 186 193 201 209 218 Waste-to-Energy 15 7 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 488 541 394 438 460 459 470 480 491 Paper and Allied Products 184 212 219 240 224 228 231 235 238 Petroleum Products 315 214 109 95 95 95 96 96 96 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 1,621 1,092 770 637 519 553 563 570 579 Misc. Point Sources 235 239 164 197 195 210 221 234 248 Sub-Total 3,709 3,107 2,432 2,250 1,972 2,033 2,060 2,106 2,154

Area SourcesAgricultural 209 219 231 246 258 268 278 289 300 Burning 538 417 414 782 559 559 559 560 560 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 65 52 34 55 69 52 52 52 52 Natural Sources 225 371 289 82 242 242 242 242 242 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 625 551 758 758 773 793 834 875 915 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,089 1,858 1,792 2,003 2,074 2,303 2,458 2,616 2,773 Sub-Total 3,752 3,469 3,516 3,926 3,975 4,217 4,424 4,634 4,841


Metro Vancouver 9,894 8,470 7,694 7,757 7,517 7,789 8,026 8,348 8,704

Road Dust 2,896 3,371 3,625 3,821 4,046 4,311 4,593 4,894 5,214


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 19 20 14 17 18 18 19 20 20 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 9 49 32 7 7 8 9 9 10 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 137 167 117 94 99 112 117 120 123 Misc. Point Sources 125 137 116 46 46 51 55 61 66 Sub-Total 290 373 280 164 170 190 200 209 219

Area SourcesAgricultural 572 596 626 650 677 700 725 749 774 Burning 152 333 137 143 196 196 196 196 196 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 74 247 274 247 244 247 254 262 270 Miscellaneous Area Sources 112 160 153 169 178 198 213 227 241 Sub-Total 912 1,338 1,193 1,212 1,299 1,346 1,392 1,439 1,485


FVRD 1,727 2,089 1,795 1,657 1,723 1,753 1,788 1,834 1,890

Road Dust 481 560 602 634 672 716 764 814 868

Table B-4: Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 578 488 578 437 246 247 247 247 247 Chemical Manufacturing 19 10 7 16 17 20 23 25 28 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 211 166 88 178 186 193 201 209 218 Waste-to-Energy 15 7 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 507 561 408 455 478 477 489 500 511 Paper and Allied Products 184 212 219 240 224 228 231 235 238 Petroleum Products 324 263 141 102 103 104 105 105 106 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 1,759 1,259 888 731 617 665 680 690 702 Misc. Point Sources 360 377 280 243 241 260 276 295 314 Sub-Total 3,999 3,481 2,712 2,414 2,141 2,223 2,260 2,316 2,373

Area SourcesAgricultural 780 816 857 896 934 968 1,003 1,038 1,075 Burning 691 750 551 925 755 755 755 755 755 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 68 55 37 59 74 57 57 57 56 Natural Sources 225 371 289 82 242 242 242 242 242 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 699 798 1,032 1,005 1,017 1,040 1,088 1,137 1,184 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,201 2,017 1,945 2,171 2,252 2,501 2,670 2,843 3,014 Sub-Total 4,663 4,807 4,709 5,138 5,274 5,563 5,816 6,073 6,326

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 483 439 405 311 312 320 335 354 375 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,030 336 191 123 74 50 43 41 42 Aircraft 34 27 35 33 37 41 44 52 58 Railways 109 118 108 156 176 172 192 196 212 Marine 359 392 453 464 540 631 711 797 877 Non-road 942 959 876 775 687 543 412 353 331 Sub-Total 2,958 2,271 2,068 1,862 1,825 1,756 1,737 1,793 1,894


Road Dust 3,377 3,931 4,227 4,456 4,718 5,027 5,357 5,708 6,082

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - 54 60 32 26 37 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 1 1 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 17 22 27 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 214 80 59 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 509 200 184 210 210 210 210 210 210 Primary Metal Industries 386 259 644 118 118 118 118 118 118 Wood Products 109 61 58 - - - - - - Other 61 14 11 63 65 68 75 77 80 Sub-Total 1,297 691 1,044 422 419 432 444 431 425

Area SourcesAgricultural 299 338 363 392 418 448 478 506 535 Burning 271 323 217 165 182 194 205 216 228 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 270 270 270 259 259 259 259 259 259 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 1,377 1,419 1,033 442 478 521 563 603 644 Miscellaneous Area Sources 329 384 430 455 492 537 580 621 663 Sub-Total 2,546 2,733 2,313 1,714 1,829 1,959 2,084 2,206 2,328


Whatcom County 4,284 3,819 3,690 2,424 2,519 2,652 2,787 2,905 3,039

Road Dust 605 678 719 721 797 882 976 1,080 1,195

Table B-4 (cont'd): Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 578 488 578 437 246 247 247 247 247 Chemical Manufacturing 19 10 7 16 17 20 23 25 28 Electric Power Generation 43 192 159 36 46 57 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 211 166 88 178 186 193 201 209 218 Waste to Energy 17 8 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 524 583 434 455 478 477 489 500 511 Paper and Allied Products 399 292 278 240 224 228 231 235 238 Petroleum Products 833 463 325 311 312 313 314 315 316 Primary Metal Industries 386 259 644 118 118 118 118 118 118 Wood Products 1,868 1,320 946 731 617 665 680 690 702 Other 420 391 292 305 306 328 351 372 394 Sub-Total 5,297 4,172 3,755 2,836 2,560 2,655 2,704 2,747 2,798

Area SourcesAgricultural 1,079 1,154 1,220 1,288 1,352 1,417 1,481 1,544 1,610 Burning 961 1,073 768 1,090 937 949 960 972 983 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 68 55 37 59 74 57 57 57 56 Natural Sources 495 641 558 341 501 501 501 501 501 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 2,076 2,217 2,065 1,447 1,495 1,561 1,651 1,740 1,828 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,530 2,401 2,375 2,627 2,744 3,038 3,250 3,464 3,677 Sub-Total 7,209 7,540 7,022 6,852 7,103 7,522 7,900 8,279 8,655

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 547 494 455 342 344 354 371 392 416 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,168 451 263 172 104 68 56 53 55 Aircraft 37 31 39 36 40 44 48 55 62 Railways 115 123 114 162 181 178 197 202 218 Marine 434 472 539 560 650 759 856 959 1,055 Non-road 1,098 1,096 992 878 776 614 466 400 374 Sub-Total 3,399 2,666 2,401 2,150 2,097 2,017 1,996 2,062 2,179

LFV Total 15,905 14,378 13,179 11,838 11,760 12,194 12,600 13,087 13,632

Road Dust 3,982 4,609 4,946 5,176 5,516 5,910 6,333 6,788 7,277





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions, Excluding Road Dust)

Table B-4 (cont'd): Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (metric tonnes)

1

2

373

6




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 242 239 237 235 233 Chemical Manufacturing 17 19 22 24 26 Electric Power Generation 44 53 37 23 15 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 182 187 193 199 205 Waste-to-Energy 9 9 9 9 8 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 169 164 171 176 182 Paper and Allied Products 220 221 223 224 225 Petroleum Products 310 310 310 310 310 Primary Metal Industries 118 118 118 118 118 Wood Products 423 463 471 474 479 Other 297 314 331 347 365 Sub-Total 2,030 2,098 2,121 2,139 2,167

Area SourcesAgricultural 1,342 1,398 1,453 1,507 1,562 Burning 699 710 721 733 743 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 71 54 54 54 52 Natural Sources 341 341 341 341 341 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,392 1,432 1,488 1,546 1,611 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,646 2,897 3,061 3,226 3,400 Sub-Total 6,490 6,831 7,118 7,407 7,708


LFV Total 10,490 10,295 10,478 10,751 11,096

Road Dust 5,366 5,604 5,870 6,177 6,527

Table B-4 (cont'd): Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario



Area SourcesAgricultural 1,357 1,439 1,521 1,605 1,692 Burning 1,191 1,203 1,215 1,227 1,238 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 75 58 59 61 60 Natural Sources 630 630 630 630 630 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,561 1,661 1,790 1,921 2,034 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,822 3,185 3,477 3,780 4,069 Sub-Total 7,636 8,177 8,692 9,224 9,723

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 351 367 394 428 465 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 113 75 63 61 65 Aircraft 41 45 50 58 65 Railways 199 195 213 217 233 Marine 701 917 1,083 1,254 1,419 Other Nonroad Equipment 794 638 492 429 406 Sub-Total 2,198 2,237 2,296 2,447 2,652

LFV Total 12,413 13,112 13,761 14,512 15,293

Road Dust 5,625 6,125 6,701 7,344 8,048

Trends in Inhalable Particulate Matter (PM10) Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 5: Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 152 120 152 112 43 44 44 44 44 Chemical Manufacturing 13 6 6 13 14 17 19 21 24 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 169 132 72 144 149 155 161 168 174 Waste-to-Energy 13 6 3 7 8 8 8 8 8 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 216 222 127 140 146 147 151 154 158 Paper and Allied Products 141 172 179 191 179 181 184 187 190 Petroleum Products 203 128 67 61 61 61 61 61 61 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 839 541 353 288 230 245 249 253 256 Misc. Point Sources 148 160 97 139 139 150 158 168 178 Sub-Total 1,937 1,624 1,155 1,100 990 1,027 1,035 1,063 1,092

Area SourcesAgricultural 44 47 49 52 54 57 59 61 64 Burning 522 417 413 753 548 548 548 548 548 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 17 14 9 15 18 14 14 14 14 Natural Sources 39 64 50 14 42 42 42 42 42 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 621 549 753 754 768 788 829 870 909 Miscellaneous Area Sources 667 663 641 663 707 773 825 874 922 Sub-Total 1,911 1,753 1,914 2,251 2,137 2,222 2,316 2,408 2,498


Metro Vancouver 5,995 5,030 4,567 4,699 4,444 4,522 4,602 4,768 4,960

Road Dust 450 524 564 594 629 670 714 761 811



Area SourcesAgricultural 122 127 132 137 142 147 152 157 162 Burning 150 317 136 141 190 190 190 190 190 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 73 246 273 246 243 246 253 261 269 Miscellaneous Area Sources 51 67 64 65 73 80 86 92 98 Sub-Total 397 758 606 591 649 664 683 702 720


FVRD 1,043 1,306 1,051 899 926 912 909 918 935

Road Dust 75 87 94 99 104 111 119 127 135

Table B-5: Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 152 120 152 112 43 44 44 44 44 Chemical Manufacturing 13 6 6 13 14 17 19 21 24 Electric Power Generation 43 138 99 4 20 20 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 169 132 72 144 149 155 161 168 174 Waste-to-Energy 13 6 3 7 8 8 8 8 8 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 221 226 131 145 151 152 156 160 164 Paper and Allied Products 141 172 179 191 179 181 184 187 190 Petroleum Products 210 149 80 64 64 65 65 65 66 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 913 630 412 326 270 290 296 300 305 Misc. Point Sources 243 263 188 161 161 174 184 196 209 Sub-Total 2,116 1,841 1,322 1,167 1,059 1,105 1,117 1,149 1,183

Area SourcesAgricultural 166 174 180 190 197 204 211 218 226 Burning 673 734 549 894 738 738 738 738 738 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 18 14 10 16 19 15 15 15 15 Natural Sources 39 64 50 14 42 42 42 42 42 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 694 795 1,026 1,000 1,011 1,034 1,082 1,131 1,178 Miscellaneous Area Sources 717 731 706 729 780 854 911 966 1,021 Sub-Total 2,307 2,511 2,520 2,842 2,787 2,886 2,999 3,110 3,219



Road Dust 525 611 657 693 734 782 833 888 946

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - 54 60 32 26 37 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 1 1 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5 8 10 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 168 67 46 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 377 200 138 204 204 204 204 204 204 Primary Metal Industries 96 231 91 55 55 55 55 55 55 Wood Products 42 31 12 - - - - - - Other 42 11 6 61 64 66 73 76 78 Sub-Total 732 603 364 352 349 363 374 361 356

Area SourcesAgricultural 61 70 76 82 88 95 102 108 114 Burning 241 287 188 155 171 181 192 202 213 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources 46 46 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 1,291 1,330 969 441 477 520 562 602 642 Miscellaneous Area Sources 89 104 117 115 124 135 146 156 167 Sub-Total 1,729 1,838 1,397 838 904 976 1,046 1,113 1,181


Whatcom County 2,851 2,788 2,050 1,436 1,485 1,559 1,635 1,697 1,772

Road Dust 25 28 29 29 32 36 40 44 49

Table B-5 (cont'd): Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 152 120 152 112 43 44 44 44 44 Chemical Manufacturing 13 6 6 13 14 17 19 21 24 Electric Power Generation 43 192 159 36 46 57 42 26 18 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 169 132 72 144 149 155 161 168 174 Waste to Energy 14 6 3 7 8 8 8 8 8 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 226 234 141 145 151 152 156 160 164 Paper and Allied Products 309 240 225 191 179 181 184 187 190 Petroleum Products 587 349 218 268 268 269 269 270 270 Primary Metal Industries 96 231 91 55 55 55 55 55 55 Wood Products 955 661 424 326 270 290 296 300 305 Other 285 274 195 222 225 240 257 272 287 Sub-Total 2,849 2,445 1,686 1,519 1,408 1,467 1,491 1,511 1,538

Area SourcesAgricultural 228 244 257 272 285 299 312 326 340 Burning 914 1,021 737 1,050 909 919 930 940 951 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 18 14 10 16 19 15 15 15 15 Natural Sources 85 110 96 59 86 86 86 86 86 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 1,985 2,125 1,995 1,441 1,488 1,554 1,644 1,733 1,820 Miscellaneous Area Sources 807 835 822 843 904 989 1,057 1,123 1,187 Sub-Total 4,037 4,349 3,917 3,680 3,691 3,862 4,044 4,223 4,400

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 366 318 266 167 162 162 168 176 186 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,056 398 227 144 81 47 35 31 30 Aircraft 37 31 38 35 40 44 48 55 61 Railways 91 97 87 137 134 129 133 132 136 Marine 400 436 496 516 598 697 786 879 966 Non-road 1,055 1,051 950 836 741 584 441 376 350 Sub-Total 3,004 2,330 2,065 1,835 1,756 1,663 1,610 1,649 1,729

LFV Total 9,890 9,124 7,668 7,035 6,855 6,993 7,146 7,382 7,667

Road Dust 550 639 687 722 766 818 873 932 994





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions, Excluding Road Dust)

Table B-5 (cont'd): Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (metric tonnes)

0

457

3





Area SourcesAgricultural 283 295 306 318 330 Burning 687 698 708 718 729 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 19 14 14 14 14 Natural Sources 59 59 59 59 59 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,386 1,425 1,481 1,539 1,603 Miscellaneous Area Sources 860 934 988 1,041 1,093 Sub-Total 3,293 3,424 3,556 3,690 3,828

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 159 155 158 163 171 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 72 41 29 25 24 Aircraft 38 42 45 52 57 Railways 117 103 98 93 93 Marine 535 174 182 194 200 Other Nonroad Equipment 711 555 414 350 323 Sub-Total 1,632 1,070 926 877 869

LFV Total 6,131 5,744 5,741 5,832 5,978

Road Dust 750 780 814 855 901

Table B-5 (cont'd): Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario



Area SourcesAgricultural 286 303 321 339 358 Burning 1,148 1,158 1,169 1,180 1,191 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 20 15 16 16 16 Natural Sources 109 109 109 109 109 Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,554 1,654 1,782 1,913 2,025 Miscellaneous Area Sources 927 1,030 1,120 1,209 1,294 Sub-Total 4,042 4,270 4,516 4,766 4,993

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 166 169 179 192 208 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 88 52 39 35 36 Aircraft 41 45 49 57 64 Railways 151 146 149 147 150 Marine 644 842 992 1,147 1,297 Other Nonroad Equipment 758 607 466 403 380 Sub-Total 1,847 1,860 1,874 1,983 2,135

LFV Total 7,312 7,628 7,929 8,322 8,743

Road Dust 773 837 910 992 1,081

Trends in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 6: Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 20 4 9 3 4 4 5 5 6 Electric Power Generation 14 45 26 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 24 32 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 Waste-to-Energy 117 115 95 108 55 55 55 55 55 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,247 653 206 198 199 198 199 199 199 Paper and Allied Products 12 11 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 Petroleum Products 2,705 2,268 1,102 581 582 583 583 584 584 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 72 22 16 12 14 14 15 15 15 Misc. Point Sources 33 37 7 20 24 24 25 26 27 Sub-Total 4,243 3,188 1,472 932 893 894 891 893 895

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - - - - - Burning 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 359 183 184 140 153 161 174 187 200 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 368 193 195 152 165 173 186 199 212

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 663 749 595 70 83 88 94 100 107 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 482 88 110 55 6 7 8 9 9 Aircraft 84 83 89 87 98 109 122 137 153 Railways 200 235 34 67 40 1 1 1 1 Marine 3,070 3,109 3,789 3,824 4,409 5,095 5,863 6,632 7,401 Non-road 402 541 171 195 55 17 19 20 21 Sub-Total 4,902 4,804 4,788 4,297 4,691 5,318 6,107 6,899 7,692

Metro Vancouver 9,513 8,185 6,455 5,381 5,748 6,385 7,184 7,991 8,800





FVRD 519 511 230 162 111 83 88 93 98

Table B-6: Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 20 4 9 3 4 4 5 5 6 Electric Power Generation 14 45 26 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 24 32 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 Waste-to-Energy 117 115 95 108 55 55 55 55 55 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,247 654 216 209 210 209 209 209 209 Paper and Allied Products 12 11 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 Petroleum Products 2,749 2,364 1,114 595 598 600 602 604 606 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 73 23 16 12 14 15 15 15 15 Misc. Point Sources 33 37 7 20 24 25 26 27 28 Sub-Total 4,289 3,285 1,496 957 920 923 921 925 929




Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 26 19 109 19 15 22 25 15 11 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 3 7 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 4 7 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 46 87 50 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 4,126 3,043 3,693 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 Primary Metal Industries 5,013 3,594 4,383 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 Wood Products 3 - - - - - - - - Other 20 3 2 27 28 30 38 40 41 Sub-Total 9,237 6,757 8,243 3,404 3,402 3,410 3,421 3,414 3,410


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 89 91 108 31 11 12 12 13 14 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 49 52 56 41 3 3 3 3 4 Aircraft 8 9 10 8 9 10 10 10 11 Railways 15 14 16 18 12 0 0 0 0 Marine 879 910 930 1,038 1,152 1,326 1,480 1,634 1,787 Non-road 85 92 88 94 4 2 2 2 2 Sub-Total 1,126 1,168 1,208 1,231 1,190 1,353 1,508 1,663 1,819

Whatcom County 10,532 8,030 9,527 4,758 4,725 4,907 5,085 5,243 5,406

Table B-6 (cont'd): Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 20 4 9 3 4 4 5 5 6 Electric Power Generation 40 64 135 20 21 27 25 15 11 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 24 32 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 Waste to Energy 119 122 95 108 55 55 55 55 55 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,247 657 223 209 210 209 209 209 209 Paper and Allied Products 59 98 59 5 5 5 5 5 5 Petroleum Products 6,875 5,407 4,807 2,345 2,348 2,351 2,352 2,354 2,356 Primary Metal Industries 5,013 3,594 4,383 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 Wood Products 76 23 16 12 14 15 15 15 15 Other 53 39 9 47 52 55 63 66 69 Sub-Total 13,526 10,042 9,738 4,361 4,322 4,333 4,342 4,339 4,339



LFV Total 20,564 16,726 16,212 10,302 10,584 11,376 12,356 13,327 14,304





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-6 (cont'd): Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

1

0

7



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 3 4 5 5 6 Electric Power Generation 20 25 22 13 9 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 4 4 4 4 4 Waste-to-Energy 54 54 53 53 52 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 117 114 112 111 109 Paper and Allied Products 5 5 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 1,934 1,931 1,927 1,923 1,919 Primary Metal Industries 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 Wood Products 14 14 14 14 14 Other 50 51 58 59 61 Sub-Total 3,810 3,811 3,808 3,796 3,788

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 29 29 30 30 31 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 278 291 308 324 343 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - Sub-Total 307 321 338 354 373

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 105 109 114 120 127 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 11 12 12 13 14 Aircraft 107 118 131 145 159 Railways 61 2 2 2 2 Marine 5,029 241 253 266 278 Other Nonroad Equipment 68 21 22 24 25 Sub-Total 5,380 503 534 569 605

LFV Total 9,498 4,635 4,680 4,719 4,767

Table B-6 (cont'd) : Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 4 4 5 6 6 Electric Power Generation 23 31 29 19 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 4 4 5 5 5 Waste-to-Energy 55 55 55 55 55 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 210 209 209 209 209 Paper and Allied Products 5 5 5 5 5 Petroleum Products 2,348 2,351 2,354 2,356 2,359 Primary Metal Industries 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 1,609 Wood Products 14 15 15 15 15 Other 56 60 71 76 80 Sub-Total 4,327 4,343 4,356 4,355 4,356

Area SourcesAgricultural - - - - - Burning 29 30 30 31 31 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 312 341 377 413 444 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - Sub-Total 341 371 407 443 475

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 109 119 129 141 154 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 12 13 14 16 18 Aircraft 113 127 143 161 180 Railways 80 2 3 3 3 Marine 6,061 7,768 9,361 10,955 12,548 Other Nonroad Equipment 72 23 25 27 29 Sub-Total 6,447 8,053 9,675 11,303 12,932

LFV Total 11,115 12,766 14,438 16,101 17,764

Trends in Sulphur Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 7: Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Chemical Manufacturing 444 218 134 154 127 120 123 125 128 Electric Power Generation 31 100 72 3 14 14 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 341 448 322 383 414 419 423 428 433 Waste-to-Energy 1 4 4 20 21 21 21 21 21 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 117 107 62 144 152 145 145 145 146 Paper and Allied Products 92 13 47 28 14 14 15 15 15 Petroleum Products 4,825 1,442 360 323 325 326 327 328 328 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 589 594 661 846 613 640 648 654 660 Misc. Point Sources 3,102 1,719 1,908 1,955 1,355 1,402 1,432 1,471 1,510 Sub-Total 9,543 4,645 3,571 3,860 3,038 3,103 3,135 3,188 3,243

Area SourcesAgricultural 721 706 674 651 643 632 619 607 595 Burning 437 449 447 590 517 517 517 517 517 Gasoline Marketing 6,338 3,323 2,180 1,778 1,400 1,132 1,027 1,024 1,059 Landfills 253 247 277 91 83 86 88 89 90 Natural Sources 4,069 4,069 4,069 4,168 4,168 4,168 4,168 4,168 4,168 Solvent Evaporation 17,893 19,286 19,564 18,103 16,049 17,360 18,716 20,075 21,430 Heating 307 344 452 451 462 476 503 530 556 Miscellaneous Area Sources 529 579 550 576 626 667 710 750 789 Sub-Total 30,546 29,003 28,212 26,409 23,949 25,039 26,349 27,760 29,203

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 38,284 24,167 19,357 13,601 9,544 7,489 5,699 5,359 5,588 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,236 895 453 286 227 205 193 178 186 Aircraft 892 793 890 826 939 1,036 1,142 1,305 1,447 Railways 80 84 72 137 113 107 101 97 91 Marine 209 238 268 276 318 366 408 453 497 Non-road 10,910 12,030 10,288 8,929 6,960 6,355 6,274 6,475 6,794 Sub-Total 51,610 38,206 31,328 24,056 18,100 15,558 13,818 13,866 14,604

Metro Vancouver 91,699 71,855 63,111 54,325 45,087 43,699 43,302 44,814 47,051



Area SourcesAgricultural 2,558 2,493 2,345 2,305 2,259 2,210 2,160 2,112 2,063 Burning 137 208 139 210 228 228 228 228 228 Gasoline Marketing 539 453 415 343 268 215 194 193 200 Landfills 12 14 15 17 19 21 23 26 28 Natural Sources 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 10,073 Solvent Evaporation 2,020 2,293 2,312 2,177 1,989 2,180 2,374 2,568 2,761 Heating 37 137 154 191 188 190 195 201 207 Miscellaneous Area Sources 55 62 57 60 67 72 77 81 85 Sub-Total 15,429 15,733 15,510 15,375 15,090 15,188 15,325 15,482 15,644

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 6,182 3,902 3,126 2,196 1,541 1,209 920 865 902 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 340 246 125 79 63 57 53 49 51 Aircraft 105 81 95 117 137 147 158 185 204 Railways 37 39 33 63 52 49 46 44 42 Marine 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Non-road 1,941 2,104 1,866 1,680 1,381 1,236 1,179 1,191 1,235 Sub-Total 8,608 6,374 5,247 4,136 3,176 2,701 2,359 2,338 2,438

FVRD 24,269 22,365 21,067 19,594 18,350 17,979 17,777 17,915 18,179

Table B-7: Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Chemical Manufacturing 444 218 134 154 127 120 123 125 128 Electric Power Generation 31 100 72 3 14 14 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 341 448 322 383 414 419 423 428 433 Waste-to-Energy 1 4 4 20 21 21 21 21 21 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 117 107 63 145 153 146 146 146 147 Paper and Allied Products 92 13 47 28 14 14 15 15 15 Petroleum Products 4,835 1,462 363 326 328 329 330 331 332 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 629 641 753 916 688 719 729 736 744 Misc. Point Sources 3,283 1,909 2,123 1,963 1,361 1,409 1,439 1,479 1,519 Sub-Total 9,774 4,904 3,881 3,942 3,123 3,193 3,228 3,284 3,341

Area SourcesAgricultural 3,279 3,200 3,019 2,956 2,902 2,842 2,780 2,719 2,658 Burning 574 657 587 800 745 745 745 745 745 Gasoline Marketing 6,877 3,776 2,595 2,121 1,669 1,347 1,222 1,217 1,258 Landfills 264 261 292 108 102 107 111 115 118 Natural Sources 14,141 14,141 14,141 14,241 14,241 14,241 14,241 14,241 14,241 Solvent Evaporation 19,913 21,579 21,876 20,280 18,037 19,540 21,090 22,643 24,191 Heating 343 481 605 642 650 666 699 731 763 Miscellaneous Area Sources 584 641 607 636 693 739 787 831 874 Sub-Total 45,975 44,736 43,722 41,785 39,039 40,227 41,674 43,242 44,847

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 44,466 28,069 22,483 15,797 11,085 8,698 6,620 6,224 6,490 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,576 1,141 578 365 290 262 246 227 238 Aircraft 998 873 985 943 1,076 1,183 1,300 1,490 1,651 Railways 117 123 105 199 164 157 147 141 133 Marine 210 240 270 279 320 368 411 456 500 Non-road 12,851 14,134 12,155 10,608 8,340 7,591 7,453 7,666 8,030 Sub-Total 60,218 44,580 36,576 28,192 21,276 18,259 16,177 16,204 17,042


Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - 26 20 5 4 5 6 4 3 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 1 2 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 188 75 72 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 6,817 1,607 2,496 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 Primary Metal Industries 151 92 21 33 33 33 33 33 33 Wood Products 21 5 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 Other 69 51 96 100 104 105 126 134 137 Sub-Total 7,246 1,856 2,722 1,231 1,234 1,236 1,257 1,261 1,262

Area SourcesAgricultural 3,991 4,151 3,894 4,135 4,137 4,139 4,141 4,143 4,145 Burning 330 373 342 223 239 253 266 280 294 Gasoline Marketing 592 313 297 196 212 231 250 268 286 Landfills 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Natural Sources 22,419 22,419 22,419 21,103 21,103 21,103 21,103 21,103 21,103 Solvent Evaporation 1,125 1,312 1,468 1,785 1,930 2,105 2,273 2,435 2,600 Heating 4,855 5,003 3,626 1,153 1,247 1,360 1,468 1,573 1,679 Miscellaneous Area Sources 99 116 129 56 60 66 71 76 81 Sub-Total 33,412 33,689 32,178 28,651 28,929 29,257 29,573 29,878 30,188

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 5,383 4,802 4,012 2,346 1,713 1,294 1,029 877 912 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 799 572 334 144 108 83 70 63 63 Aircraft 94 102 108 84 100 108 113 114 117 Railways 8 8 9 11 10 10 10 10 11 Marine 27 30 35 39 46 55 63 71 79 Non-road 2,410 2,402 2,123 1,729 1,628 1,430 1,326 1,330 1,371 Sub-Total 8,722 7,917 6,621 4,352 3,605 2,979 2,611 2,465 2,551

Whatcom County 49,379 43,462 41,522 34,235 33,768 33,472 33,440 33,603 34,001

Table B-7 (cont'd): Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Chemical Manufacturing 444 218 134 154 127 120 123 125 128 Electric Power Generation 31 126 92 8 18 20 6 4 3 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 341 448 322 383 414 419 423 428 433 Waste-to-Energy 1 4 4 20 21 21 21 21 21 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 117 108 64 145 153 146 146 146 147 Paper and Allied Products 280 89 119 28 14 14 15 15 15 Petroleum Products 11,652 3,069 2,859 1,404 1,406 1,407 1,409 1,410 1,411 Primary Metal Industries 151 92 21 33 33 33 33 33 33 Wood Products 650 645 769 932 702 734 742 748 755 Other 3,352 1,961 2,219 2,063 1,466 1,514 1,566 1,613 1,656 Sub-Total 17,020 6,760 6,603 5,172 4,357 4,429 4,485 4,545 4,603

Area SourcesAgricultural 7,269 7,351 6,913 7,091 7,039 6,980 6,921 6,862 6,803 Burning 905 1,030 929 1,023 984 997 1,011 1,025 1,039 Gasoline Marketing 7,469 4,089 2,893 2,317 1,881 1,578 1,472 1,485 1,544 Landfills 266 263 294 109 103 108 112 115 119 Natural Sources 36,560 36,560 36,560 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 Solvent Evaporation 21,037 22,891 23,344 22,065 19,967 21,645 23,363 25,078 26,790 Heating 5,198 5,484 4,232 1,795 1,897 2,026 2,167 2,304 2,442 Miscellaneous Area Sources 683 757 736 692 753 805 858 907 955 Sub-Total 79,387 78,424 75,900 70,436 67,968 69,484 71,247 73,119 75,035

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 49,848 32,871 26,495 18,144 12,798 9,992 7,648 7,101 7,402 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2,376 1,713 911 509 398 345 317 289 301 Aircraft 1,092 976 1,093 1,027 1,177 1,291 1,413 1,604 1,768 Railways 126 131 115 210 174 167 157 151 144 Marine 237 271 305 318 366 423 474 527 579 Non-road 15,261 16,536 14,278 12,337 9,968 9,021 8,779 8,996 9,400 Sub-Total 68,939 52,497 43,197 32,544 24,881 21,238 18,788 18,669 19,593

LFV Total 165,347 137,682 125,701 108,153 97,206 95,150 94,520 96,333 99,231




Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 30 24 21 17 13 11 8 7 7Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Aircraft 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2Railways 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Marine 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1Non-road 9 12 11 11 10 9 9 9Sub-Total 42 38 34 30 26 22 20 19 2

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-7 (cont'd): Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (metric tonnes)

67

6

90



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 2 2 2 2 2 Chemical Manufacturing 125 117 118 119 120 Electric Power Generation 17 19 5 3 2 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 406 407 407 408 409 Waste-to-Energy 20 20 20 20 20 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 150 142 141 139 138 Paper and Allied Products 14 14 14 14 14 Petroleum Products 1,400 1,398 1,396 1,394 1,392 Primary Metal Industries 33 33 33 33 33 Wood Products 532 556 557 556 555 Other 1,432 1,463 1,498 1,523 1,550 Sub-Total 4,132 4,169 4,190 4,211 4,236

Area SourcesAgricultural 7,007 6,925 6,843 6,764 6,684 Burning 894 907 921 935 948 Gasoline Marketing 1,793 1,491 1,373 1,372 1,417 Landfills 99 103 106 108 110 Natural Sources 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 Solvent Evaporation 19,123 20,566 21,975 23,412 24,820 Heating 1,762 1,843 1,927 2,007 2,121 Miscellaneous Area Sources 710 755 796 838 877 Sub-Total 66,732 67,933 69,285 70,780 72,322

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 12,704 8,228 7,076 6,366 6,522 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 379 318 286 253 256 Aircraft 1,123 1,228 1,337 1,514 1,655 Railways 145 116 89 76 63 Marine 328 356 377 400 422 Other Nonroad Equipment 9,389 8,438 8,132 8,290 8,608 Sub-Total 24,067 18,683 17,297 16,899 17,527

LFV Total 94,931 90,786 90,773 91,889 94,084

Table B-7 (cont'd): Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 2 2 2 2 2 Chemical Manufacturing 127 121 124 128 131 Electric Power Generation 18 20 7 5 3 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 415 420 427 433 440 Waste-to-Energy 21 21 21 21 21 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 153 146 146 147 147 Paper and Allied Products 14 15 15 15 15 Petroleum Products 1,406 1,408 1,409 1,411 1,413 Primary Metal Industries 33 33 33 33 33 Wood Products 705 739 750 759 768 Other 1,482 1,545 1,619 1,683 1,743 Sub-Total 4,377 4,469 4,553 4,635 4,716

Area SourcesAgricultural 7,054 7,045 7,033 7,022 7,007 Burning 1,095 1,109 1,123 1,137 1,151 Gasoline Marketing 1,924 1,647 1,566 1,609 1,693 Landfills 104 111 117 122 127 Natural Sources 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 35,344 Solvent Evaporation 20,410 22,439 24,563 26,747 28,896 Heating 2,043 2,236 2,449 2,667 2,834 Miscellaneous Area Sources 769 833 898 962 1,023 Sub-Total 68,743 70,764 73,093 75,609 78,075

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 13,266 10,580 8,294 8,144 8,437 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 422 372 348 386 348 Aircraft 1,195 1,323 1,461 1,678 1,869 Railways 204 195 184 178 169 Marine 391 506 590 677 763 Other Nonroad Equipment 10,256 9,411 9,282 9,647 10,176 Sub-Total 25,734 22,388 20,160 20,709 21,762

LFV Total 98,854 97,621 97,806 100,953 104,553

Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 8: Trends in Ammonia Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing - - 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 Electric Power Generation - - 5 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 17 2 2 2 2 2 2 Waste-to-Energy - - 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1 1 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 Paper and Allied Products 2 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 10 4 7 11 12 13 14 14 14 Misc. Point Sources 2 1 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 Sub-Total 20 14 52 39 44 46 42 43 44

Area SourcesAgricultural 1,613 1,701 2,024 1,924 2,174 2,328 2,477 2,614 2,750 Burning 34 29 29 48 38 38 38 38 38 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 293 289 291 101 99 103 101 100 100 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 378 380 432 396 411 416 434 451 468 Miscellaneous Area Sources 1,469 1,672 1,829 1,859 2,066 2,208 2,349 2,472 2,590 Sub-Total 3,789 4,071 4,605 4,329 4,788 5,093 5,398 5,674 5,945

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 354 662 820 937 1,028 1,099 1,170 1,245 1,325 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 10 12 13 12 14 15 16 18 20 Aircraft 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Railways 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Marine 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 Non-road 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 Sub-Total 373 684 844 963 1,056 1,130 1,203 1,282 1,365

Metro Vancouver 4,182 4,768 5,501 5,331 5,888 6,269 6,643 6,999 7,355


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products - - 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Misc. Point Sources 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub-Total 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1



FVRD 5,605 5,853 6,832 6,459 7,220 7,699 8,174 8,608 9,040

Table B-8: Trends in Ammonia Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing - - 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 Electric Power Generation - - 5 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 17 2 2 2 2 2 2 Waste-to-Energy - - 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1 1 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 Paper and Allied Products 2 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 10 4 7 11 12 13 14 14 14 Misc. Point Sources 2 1 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 Sub-Total 20 14 54 40 45 47 43 44 45


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 411 768 953 1,089 1,194 1,277 1,359 1,446 1,539 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 13 15 16 16 17 19 21 23 25 Aircraft 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Railways 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Marine 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 Non-road 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Sub-Total 434 795 982 1,119 1,228 1,313 1,399 1,491 1,587


Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - 24 30 23 19 27 30 19 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - - - - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 1 0 1 - - - - - - Petroleum Products 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products - - - - - - - - - Other - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 10 25 31 23 19 27 30 19 13


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 77 106 129 118 128 138 147 157 168 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 Aircraft 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Railways - - - - - - - - - Marine 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 Non-road 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 Sub-Total 84 113 136 127 137 148 158 169 180

Whatcom County 6,525 6,816 6,434 6,754 6,800 6,865 6,924 6,967 7,018

Table B-8 (cont'd): Trends in Ammonia Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing - - 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 Electric Power Generation - 24 35 24 24 32 30 19 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 17 2 2 2 2 2 2 Waste to Energy - - 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1 1 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 Paper and Allied Products 3 4 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 14 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 10 4 7 11 12 13 14 14 14 Other 2 1 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 Sub-Total 30 39 85 63 64 73 73 63 58


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 488 874 1,082 1,207 1,323 1,414 1,506 1,603 1,706 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 17 19 21 22 24 26 28 30 33 Aircraft 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Railways 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Marine 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 11 Non-road 8 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 Sub-Total 518 908 1,118 1,247 1,365 1,461 1,557 1,659 1,768

LFV Total 16,312 17,437 18,767 18,545 19,908 20,832 21,741 22,575 23,413





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Ammonia Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-8 (cont'd): Trends in Ammonia Emissions (metric tonnes)

42



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 3 3 3 4 4 Electric Power Generation 23 29 26 16 11 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 2 2 2 2 2 Waste-to-Energy 1 1 1 1 0 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 7 7 7 7 7 Paper and Allied Products 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum Products 7 7 7 7 7 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - Wood Products 12 13 13 13 13 Other 5 5 6 6 6 Sub-Total 61 70 68 58 54

Area SourcesAgricultural 15,054 15,583 16,092 16,542 16,982 Burning 53 53 54 54 54 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 117 122 122 122 123 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 454 452 461 474 481 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,480 2,647 2,795 2,940 3,067 Sub-Total 18,158 18,858 19,523 20,133 20,707

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 1,294 1,354 1,415 1,487 1,570 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 23 25 26 28 30 Aircraft 1 1 1 1 1 Railways 1 1 1 1 1 Marine 6 6 7 8 8 Other Nonroad Equipment 11 11 12 13 14 Sub-Total 1,335 1,398 1,462 1,538 1,624

LFV Total 19,555 20,325 21,053 21,729 22,385

Table B-8 (cont'd) : Trends in Ammonia Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario



Area SourcesAgricultural 15,195 15,977 16,773 17,537 18,322 Burning 77 78 78 78 79 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills 123 131 134 137 142 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 505 520 550 580 609 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,706 2,930 3,155 3,365 3,563 Sub-Total 18,607 19,637 20,689 21,698 22,713

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 1,347 1,468 1,601 1,748 1,910 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 25 28 31 35 39 Aircraft 1 1 1 1 1 Railways 1 1 1 1 1 Marine 7 9 11 13 15 Other Nonroad Equipment 11 12 14 15 17 Sub-Total 1,392 1,519 1,658 1,813 1,981

LFV Total 20,065 21,233 22,426 23,579 24,758

Trends in Ammonia Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 9: Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 153 121 154 114 46 46 46 47 47 Chemical Manufacturing 706 342 292 315 274 240 230 219 208 Electric Power Generation 578 1,676 436 26 120 120 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 653 663 466 581 621 621 624 628 632 Waste-to-Energy 607 599 552 601 275 275 275 275 275 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 6,648 6,159 4,144 4,117 4,236 4,133 4,141 4,148 4,156 Paper and Allied Products 407 370 394 351 288 274 259 245 231 Petroleum Products 8,874 4,385 1,863 1,272 1,264 1,213 1,162 1,111 1,060 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 2,240 1,470 1,247 1,337 1,063 1,080 1,069 1,053 1,040 Misc. Point Sources 3,494 2,148 2,227 2,351 1,774 1,798 1,813 1,839 1,866 Sub-Total 24,359 17,933 11,775 11,065 9,961 9,801 9,620 9,565 9,513

Area SourcesAgricultural 2,378 2,454 2,747 2,627 2,872 3,017 3,155 3,282 3,409 Burning 1,107 1,003 999 1,552 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,239 1,239 Gasoline Marketing 6,338 3,323 2,180 1,778 1,400 1,132 1,027 1,024 1,059 Landfills 563 550 577 207 201 203 203 203 204 Natural Sources 4,261 4,286 4,272 4,340 4,367 4,367 4,367 4,367 4,367 Solvent Evaporation 17,893 19,286 19,564 18,103 16,049 17,360 18,716 20,075 21,430 Heating 5,452 6,187 6,870 6,736 7,265 7,177 7,430 7,686 7,918 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,668 2,918 3,023 3,101 3,402 3,652 3,886 4,098 4,304 Sub-Total 40,660 40,006 40,231 38,445 36,793 38,145 40,023 41,973 43,929

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 72,961 49,896 38,470 25,937 18,809 15,439 11,999 11,004 11,270 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 13,624 6,732 5,670 4,191 2,778 1,721 1,129 788 578 Aircraft 1,960 1,826 2,012 1,911 2,159 2,399 2,666 3,016 3,360 Railways 3,634 3,840 3,125 2,680 2,334 2,173 2,048 1,954 1,863 Marine 9,371 10,215 11,857 11,796 13,062 14,804 16,548 18,387 20,177 Non-road 18,903 21,048 19,648 17,868 14,108 11,670 10,532 10,373 10,648 Sub-Total 120,453 93,558 80,781 64,383 53,251 48,207 44,921 45,523 47,897

Metro Vancouver 185,472 151,497 132,787 113,893 100,005 96,153 94,563 97,061 101,339

Road Dust 450 524 564 594 629 670 714 761 811



Area SourcesAgricultural 7,903 7,995 8,788 8,353 9,014 9,407 9,797 10,149 10,497 Burning 330 600 318 421 496 496 496 496 496 Gasoline Marketing 539 453 415 343 268 215 194 193 200 Landfills 26 31 33 37 42 47 52 56 61 Natural Sources 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 10,453 Solvent Evaporation 2,020 2,293 2,312 2,177 1,989 2,180 2,374 2,568 2,761 Heating 671 1,172 1,242 1,063 1,111 1,103 1,137 1,172 1,204 Miscellaneous Area Sources 358 416 424 436 487 525 560 592 624 Sub-Total 22,300 23,412 23,985 23,282 23,859 24,425 25,064 25,680 26,296

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 11,782 8,057 6,212 4,188 3,037 2,493 1,938 1,777 1,820 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,749 1,852 1,560 1,153 764 474 311 217 159 Aircraft 136 111 135 175 209 225 241 280 306 Railways 1,692 1,788 1,455 1,227 1,068 995 938 895 853Marine 57 72 70 79 87 86 90 97 102 Non-road 3,593 3,952 3,731 3,448 2,890 2,440 2,154 2,052 2,053 Sub-Total 21,009 15,833 13,163 10,270 8,056 6,712 5,671 5,317 5,293

FVRD 43,989 40,082 37,921 33,800 32,174 31,421 31,031 31,305 31,910

Road Dust 75 87 94 99 104 111 119 127 135

Table B-9: Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 153 121 154 114 46 46 46 47 47 Chemical Manufacturing 706 343 292 315 274 240 230 219 208 Electric Power Generation 578 1,676 436 26 120 120 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 653 663 466 581 621 621 624 628 632 Waste-to-Energy 607 599 552 601 275 275 275 275 275 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 6,660 6,172 4,169 4,141 4,260 4,158 4,167 4,174 4,182 Paper and Allied Products 407 370 394 351 288 274 259 245 231 Petroleum Products 8,964 4,588 1,909 1,316 1,312 1,266 1,218 1,171 1,124 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 2,361 1,613 1,405 1,472 1,206 1,237 1,230 1,218 1,208 Misc. Point Sources 3,952 2,624 2,771 2,396 1,819 1,848 1,866 1,897 1,929 Sub-Total 25,040 18,769 12,548 11,313 10,221 10,085 9,916 9,873 9,834

Area SourcesAgricultural 10,282 10,449 11,535 10,981 11,885 12,424 12,952 13,431 13,906 Burning 1,436 1,604 1,317 1,973 1,733 1,734 1,734 1,735 1,735 Gasoline Marketing 6,877 3,776 2,595 2,121 1,669 1,347 1,222 1,217 1,258 Landfills 589 581 610 244 243 249 255 259 265 Natural Sources 14,714 14,739 14,725 14,793 14,820 14,820 14,820 14,820 14,820 Solvent Evaporation 19,913 21,579 21,876 20,280 18,037 19,540 21,090 22,643 24,191 Heating 6,123 7,358 8,112 7,799 8,375 8,280 8,568 8,858 9,122 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3,026 3,333 3,446 3,536 3,889 4,177 4,446 4,690 4,927 Sub-Total 62,960 63,419 64,216 61,727 60,652 62,570 65,087 67,653 70,225

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 84,743 57,954 44,683 30,126 21,846 17,932 13,936 12,781 13,090 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 17,373 8,584 7,230 5,344 3,543 2,195 1,439 1,005 737 Aircraft 2,095 1,937 2,146 2,086 2,368 2,624 2,907 3,296 3,666 Railways 5,326 5,628 4,579 3,907 3,403 3,168 2,986 2,849 2,716 Marine 9,428 10,287 11,927 11,875 13,149 14,890 16,638 18,484 20,279 Non-road 22,496 25,000 23,379 21,316 16,998 14,110 12,686 12,425 12,701 Sub-Total 141,462 109,390 93,944 74,653 61,307 54,919 50,592 50,840 53,190


Road Dust 525 611 657 693 734 782 833 888 946

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 50 492 1,801 235 194 276 312 195 133 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy 60 52 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 5 53 93 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 643 391 333 8 - - - - - Petroleum Products 15,119 7,204 9,192 6,042 6,042 6,042 6,042 6,042 6,042 Primary Metal Industries 5,317 3,967 4,550 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 Wood Products 97 40 34 15 15 14 13 12 12 Other 526 620 376 374 346 360 744 789 803 Sub-Total 21,817 12,819 16,379 8,467 8,388 8,484 8,903 8,831 8,782

Area SourcesAgricultural 10,251 10,636 9,957 10,561 10,588 10,620 10,651 10,680 10,710 Burning 682 784 632 445 480 508 536 563 591 Gasoline Marketing 592 313 297 196 212 231 250 268 286 Landfills 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 Natural Sources 22,777 22,777 22,777 21,447 21,447 21,447 21,447 21,447 21,447 Solvent Evaporation 1,125 1,312 1,468 1,785 1,930 2,105 2,273 2,435 2,600 Heating 6,701 6,808 5,017 2,117 2,290 2,497 2,696 2,888 3,084 Miscellaneous Area Sources 407 470 515 387 419 457 493 528 563 Sub-Total 42,538 43,105 40,666 36,942 37,369 37,867 38,347 38,811 39,282

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 9,943 8,646 7,098 4,394 3,289 2,544 2,062 1,822 1,853 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 3,195 2,907 2,483 1,950 1,222 677 397 269 203 Aircraft 221 240 254 197 236 254 265 268 274 Railways 227 220 251 283 244 234 232 239 244 Marine 1,674 1,805 2,020 2,206 2,478 2,903 3,285 3,667 4,048 Non-road 3,823 3,729 3,363 2,869 2,596 2,209 1,966 1,907 1,931 Sub-Total 19,084 17,547 15,470 11,899 10,066 8,820 8,206 8,172 8,554

Whatcom County 83,438 73,472 72,515 57,307 55,823 55,172 55,456 55,814 56,617

Road Dust 25 28 29 29 32 36 40 44 49

Table B-9 (cont'd): Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (metric tonnes)



0

3

94

8

83


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 153 121 154 114 46 46 46 47 47 Chemical Manufacturing 706 343 292 315 274 240 230 219 208 Electric Power Generation 628 2,168 2,238 261 314 396 312 195 133 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 653 663 466 581 621 621 624 628 632 Waste-to-Energy 667 651 552 601 275 275 275 275 275 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 6,665 6,225 4,262 4,141 4,260 4,158 4,167 4,174 4,182 Paper and Allied Products 1,050 761 727 359 288 274 259 245 231 Petroleum Products 24,083 11,792 11,101 7,358 7,354 7,308 7,261 7,214 7,166 Primary Metal Industries 5,317 3,967 4,550 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 Wood Products 2,458 1,653 1,439 1,488 1,220 1,252 1,243 1,231 1,219 Other 4,478 3,244 3,147 2,770 2,164 2,208 2,610 2,686 2,731 Sub-Total 46,857 31,588 28,927 19,780 18,609 18,569 18,819 18,704 18,616

Area SourcesAgricultural 20,532 21,085 21,492 21,542 22,474 23,044 23,602 24,111 24,616 Burning 2,118 2,387 1,948 2,418 2,214 2,242 2,270 2,298 2,326 Gasoline Marketing 7,469 4,089 2,893 2,317 1,881 1,578 1,472 1,485 1,544 Landfills 593 584 613 246 245 251 256 261 266 Natural Sources 37,491 37,517 37,502 36,240 36,268 36,268 36,268 36,268 36,268 Solvent Evaporation 21,037 22,891 23,344 22,065 19,967 21,645 23,363 25,078 26,790 Heating 12,824 14,167 13,129 9,916 10,665 10,777 11,264 11,746 12,206 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3,433 3,804 3,961 3,924 4,308 4,633 4,939 5,218 5,491 Sub-Total 105,498 106,524 104,882 98,668 98,020 100,438 103,434 106,464 109,507

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 94,687 66,600 51,781 34,520 25,135 20,477 15,998 14,603 14,943 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 20,568 11,491 9,713 7,293 4,765 2,872 1,836 1,275 940 Aircraft 2,317 2,177 2,401 2,283 2,605 2,878 3,173 3,564 3,941 Railways 5,553 5,848 4,831 4,190 3,647 3,401 3,217 3,088 2,961 Marine 11,102 12,092 13,947 14,081 15,627 17,793 19,922 22,151 24,327 Non-road 26,319 28,730 26,742 24,185 19,595 16,319 14,652 14,332 14,632 Sub-Total 160,545 126,938 109,414 86,552 71,373 63,739 58,798 59,012 61,744

LFV Total 312,900 265,050 243,223 205,000 188,002 182,746 181,050 184,180 189,867

Road Dust 550 639 687 722 766 818 873 932 994


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Chemical Manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electric Power Generation 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Waste-to-Energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Paper and Allied Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Petroleum Products 8 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4Primary Metal Industries 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1Wood Products 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Sub-Total 15 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 1


Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 30 25 21 17 13 11 9 8 8Heavy-Duty Vehicles 7 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0Aircraft 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2Railways 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Marine 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13Non-road 8 11 11 12 10 9 8 8Sub-Total 51 48 45 42 38 35 32 32 3

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions, Excluding Road Dust)

Table B-9 (cont'd): Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (metric tonnes)


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 45 45 45 44 44 Chemical Manufacturing 269 233 221 208 196 Electric Power Generation 297 366 274 167 115 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 609 603 600 598 596 Waste-to-Energy 270 267 265 262 259 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,426 2,286 2,254 2,222 2,190 Paper and Allied Products 282 266 249 233 218 Petroleum Products 6,815 6,810 6,805 6,755 6,700 Primary Metal Industries 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 Wood Products 959 977 957 933 912 Other 2,104 2,120 2,452 2,482 2,509 Sub-Total 15,868 15,764 15,914 15,698 15,530

Area SourcesAgricultural 22,344 22,803 23,242 23,624 23,997 Burning 1,861 1,889 1,917 1,945 1,972 Gasoline Marketing 1,793 1,491 1,373 1,372 1,417 Landfills 234 239 242 245 247 Natural Sources 36,240 36,240 36,240 36,240 36,240 Solvent Evaporation 19,123 20,566 21,975 23,412 24,820 Heating 9,938 9,807 10,026 10,278 10,519 Miscellaneous Area Sources 4,053 4,338 4,582 4,823 5,040 Sub-Total 95,586 97,373 99,597 101,940 104,253

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 24,936 16,927 15,129 13,438 13,518 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4,598 2,698 1,733 1,174 825 Aircraft 2,487 2,737 3,002 3,364 3,689 Railways 3,123 2,674 2,379 1,941 1,617 Marine 14,037 7,943 6,879 6,000 5,706 Other Nonroad Equipment 18,637 15,376 13,651 13,265 13,449 Sub-Total 67,819 48,355 42,772 39,181 38,803

LFV Total 179,273 161,492 158,283 156,819 158,587

Road Dust 750 780 814 855 901

Table B-9 (cont'd): Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 46 46 47 47 47 Chemical Manufacturing 274 241 232 222 213 Electric Power Generation 335 435 366 236 161 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 622 626 633 641 650 Waste-to-Energy 275 275 275 275 275 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 4,261 4,160 4,171 4,180 4,190 Paper and Allied Products 289 277 265 253 241 Petroleum Products 7,355 7,311 7,266 7,221 7,177 Primary Metal Industries 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 1,792 Wood Products 1,225 1,263 1,262 1,257 1,253 Other 2,210 2,285 2,790 2,918 2,989 Sub-Total 18,685 18,713 19,098 19,042 18,987

Area SourcesAgricultural 22,535 23,325 24,127 24,898 25,687 Burning 2,610 2,639 2,668 2,697 2,725 Gasoline Marketing 1,924 1,647 1,566 1,609 1,693 Landfills 248 258 266 275 285 Natural Sources 36,290 36,290 36,290 36,290 36,290 Solvent Evaporation 20,410 22,439 24,563 26,747 28,896 Heating 11,015 11,353 12,092 12,852 13,503 Miscellaneous Area Sources 4,405 4,796 5,176 5,539 5,884 Sub-Total 99,436 102,747 106,748 110,907 114,963

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 25,825 21,388 17,086 16,269 16,842 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 4,986 3,058 1,985 1,474 1,085 Aircraft 2,645 2,950 3,281 3,728 4,167 Railways 4,259 3,978 3,766 3,621 3,475 Marine 16,785 21,335 24,978 28,731 32,431 Other Nonroad Equipment 20,083 16,989 15,479 15,366 15,854 Sub-Total 74,582 69,696 66,574 69,190 73,854

LFV Total 192,704 191,156 192,420 199,139 207,804

Road Dust 773 837 910 992 1,081

Trends in Smog-Forming Pollutants Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 10: Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 876 636 914 1,026 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Chemical Manufacturing 136,404 55,319 68,542 64,008 58,183 69,949 80,350 90,118 99,975 Electric Power Generation 675,274 2,150,420 1,561,483 67,616 310,167 310,167 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 108,745 42,924 50,260 55,648 59,105 61,276 63,653 66,182 68,761 Waste-to-Energy 70,800 75,600 106,900 115,800 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,259,161 1,536,709 1,874,280 2,028,134 2,110,407 2,046,404 2,054,472 2,061,451 2,069,066 Paper and Allied Products 125,870 128,047 151,441 114,932 73,476 74,231 74,935 75,643 76,351 Petroleum Products 804,038 336,234 429,821 467,964 471,941 474,927 477,227 479,574 481,969 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 101,102 114,207 107,555 129,158 116,549 126,722 129,703 131,929 134,449 Misc. Point Sources 165,360 200,657 225,055 227,319 239,347 249,877 261,252 274,225 287,753 Sub-Total 3,447,630 4,640,752 4,576,252 3,271,605 3,559,210 3,533,587 3,261,625 3,299,157 3,338,359

Area SourcesAgricultural 1,929 2,019 2,095 2,172 2,398 2,647 2,923 3,227 3,563 Burning 1,394 772 624 710 710 710 710 710 710 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 3,717,214 4,527,189 4,826,350 4,718,869 5,118,791 5,419,003 5,903,794 6,390,967 6,854,673 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 3,720,537 4,529,980 4,829,069 4,721,751 5,121,898 5,422,360 5,907,426 6,394,904 6,858,946

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 3,072,109 3,921,231 4,212,325 4,317,924 4,216,046 3,910,497 3,588,702 3,392,865 3,365,295 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 614,215 718,512 865,747 870,369 882,298 949,519 1,027,100 1,114,353 1,211,156 Aircraft 182,915 171,042 187,700 181,742 205,790 228,374 253,443 286,976 319,807 Railways 152,853 160,447 137,449 124,528 127,116 129,218 130,027 132,372 133,828 Marine 295,429 327,423 354,316 351,963 396,539 444,326 487,691 534,287 578,882 Non-road 573,375 676,939 762,368 845,468 924,853 1,017,007 1,114,131 1,212,741 1,309,821 Sub-Total 4,890,896 5,975,593 6,519,905 6,691,995 6,752,641 6,678,941 6,601,094 6,673,594 6,918,788

Metro Vancouver 12,059,064 15,146,325 15,925,226 14,685,350 15,433,750 15,634,888 15,770,146 16,367,655 17,116,093


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - 1,250 - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 7,891 8,405 14,811 12,244 12,359 12,569 12,758 12,930 13,102 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 9,856 12,239 10,876 12,093 11,220 12,369 13,255 14,159 15,081 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 13,214 13,214 8,936 6,134 6,678 7,618 7,893 8,099 8,332 Misc. Point Sources 49,011 49,172 47,234 20,934 21,711 23,399 25,060 27,110 29,183 Sub-Total 79,973 84,280 81,858 51,405 51,968 55,955 58,967 62,297 65,698

Area SourcesAgricultural 2,168 2,269 2,354 2,441 2,695 2,975 3,285 3,627 4,004 Burning 176 125 154 180 180 180 180 180 180 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 457,907 636,902 673,334 526,466 569,748 601,682 653,957 706,436 756,426 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 460,250 639,296 675,842 529,087 572,623 604,838 657,422 710,243 760,610

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 496,093 633,211 680,218 697,271 680,819 631,478 579,514 547,889 543,437Heavy-Duty Vehicles 169,001 197,698 238,210 239,482 242,764 261,260 282,606 306,614 333,249Aircraft 15,685 14,105 15,605 21,007 25,325 27,228 29,283 33,800 36,798Railways 71,160 74,695 63,989 56,998 58,182 59,144 59,514 60,588 61,254Marine 3,097 3,895 3,796 4,309 4,848 5,124 5,392 5,799 6,152Non-road 112,763 132,233 149,193 165,580 182,026 199,915 218,242 236,630 254,846Sub-Total 867,799 1,055,838 1,151,011 1,184,645 1,193,965 1,184,149 1,174,551 1,191,320 1,235,736

FVRD 1,408,022 1,779,414 1,908,710 1,765,137 1,818,555 1,844,942 1,890,940 1,963,860 2,062,044

Table B-10: Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (metric tonnes)





Area SourcesAgricultural 4,097 4,288 4,449 4,612 5,093 5,623 6,208 6,854 7,567 Burning 1,570 898 778 890 890 890 890 890 890 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 4,175,121 5,164,090 5,499,684 5,245,335 5,688,538 6,020,685 6,557,750 7,097,403 7,611,099 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 4,180,788 5,169,276 5,504,911 5,250,837 5,694,521 6,027,197 6,564,848 7,105,147 7,619,556

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 3,568,202 4,554,442 4,892,543 5,015,195 4,896,864 4,541,975 4,168,215 3,940,754 3,908,732 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 783,216 916,210 1,103,957 1,109,850 1,125,062 1,210,779 1,309,707 1,420,967 1,544,405 Aircraft 198,600 185,147 203,306 202,749 231,116 255,602 282,726 320,777 356,605 Railways 224,013 235,142 201,437 181,526 185,298 188,363 189,541 192,960 195,081 Marine 298,525 331,317 358,112 356,272 401,387 449,450 493,083 540,086 585,034 Non-road 686,138 809,172 911,561 1,011,048 1,106,879 1,216,923 1,332,373 1,449,371 1,564,667 Sub-Total 5,758,695 7,031,431 7,670,916 7,876,640 7,946,606 7,863,091 7,775,645 7,864,914 8,154,524

Canadian LFV Total 13,467,085 16,925,739 17,833,936 16,450,488 17,252,305 17,479,830 17,661,086 18,331,515 19,178,137

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 16,840 1,489,429 2,227,977 906,906 746,677 1,064,353 1,200,727 752,243 514,484 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 29,016 27,645 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 6,429 11,726 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 73,756 49,450 50,567 11,227 - - - - - Petroleum Products 1,814,991 1,342,423 1,524,733 1,707,360 1,707,360 1,707,360 1,707,360 1,707,360 1,707,360 Primary Metal Industries 20,046 17,783 19,874 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 1,691 936 712 - - - - - - Other 100,378 141,201 77,304 123,612 107,566 114,101 292,040 310,571 315,475 Sub-Total 2,056,718 3,075,296 3,912,893 2,915,533 2,728,030 3,052,242 3,366,554 2,936,602 2,703,746

Area SourcesAgricultural 534 623 697 755 817 891 962 1,030 1,100 Burning 5,046 5,973 6,688 7,463 8,281 9,077 9,873 10,669 11,465 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 272,666 253,780 286,043 348,625 376,978 411,188 443,934 475,572 507,730 Miscellaneous Area Sources 51 60 67 62 67 74 79 85 91 Sub-Total 278,297 260,435 293,495 356,906 386,142 421,230 454,848 487,356 520,385

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 470,880 485,396 531,377 523,562 514,800 503,532 451,587 431,235 423,909 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 159,363 173,102 187,341 242,003 254,334 267,286 282,125 301,347 321,834 Aircraft 38,666 41,973 44,424 34,431 41,258 44,278 46,305 46,790 47,927 Railways 9,171 8,908 10,164 11,466 12,290 13,302 14,195 15,695 17,166 Marine 61,489 63,682 63,895 70,803 78,318 88,390 97,225 106,029 114,848 Non-road 101,911 101,932 102,128 110,461 125,130 137,309 149,527 161,643 173,645 Sub-Total 841,481 874,993 939,329 992,726 1,026,131 1,054,096 1,040,965 1,062,738 1,099,329

Whatcom County 3,176,496 4,210,723 5,145,717 4,265,165 4,140,303 4,527,568 4,862,367 4,486,696 4,323,460

Table B-10 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 876 636 914 1,026 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Chemical Manufacturing 136,404 56,569 68,542 64,008 58,183 69,949 80,350 90,118 99,975 Electric Power Generation 692,113 3,639,849 3,789,460 974,523 1,056,844 1,374,520 1,200,727 752,243 514,484 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 108,745 42,924 50,260 55,648 59,105 61,276 63,653 66,182 68,761 Waste to Energy 99,816 103,245 106,900 115,800 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,267,052 1,551,542 1,900,818 2,040,378 2,122,767 2,058,973 2,067,230 2,074,381 2,082,168 Paper and Allied Products 199,626 177,497 202,009 126,160 73,476 74,231 74,935 75,643 76,351 Petroleum Products 2,628,885 1,690,896 1,965,430 2,187,417 2,190,520 2,194,656 2,197,842 2,201,093 2,204,410 Primary Metal Industries 20,046 17,783 19,874 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 116,007 128,357 117,204 135,292 123,227 134,340 137,596 140,028 142,781 Other 314,750 391,031 349,592 371,865 368,623 387,377 578,352 611,905 632,410 Sub-Total 5,584,321 7,800,328 8,571,003 6,238,544 6,339,208 6,641,784 6,687,147 6,298,056 6,107,803

Area SourcesAgricultural 4,631 4,911 5,146 5,368 5,909 6,513 7,169 7,884 8,667 Burning 6,616 6,870 7,467 8,353 9,171 9,967 10,763 11,559 12,355 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 4,447,787 5,417,870 5,785,727 5,593,960 6,065,516 6,431,873 7,001,684 7,572,975 8,118,828 Miscellaneous Area Sources 51 60 67 62 67 74 79 85 91 Sub-Total 4,459,085 5,429,711 5,798,407 5,607,743 6,080,663 6,448,427 7,019,696 7,592,503 8,139,941

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 4,039,082 5,039,838 5,423,920 5,538,757 5,411,665 5,045,507 4,619,802 4,371,989 4,332,641 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 942,579 1,089,313 1,291,298 1,351,854 1,379,396 1,478,065 1,591,831 1,722,314 1,866,239 Aircraft 237,267 227,120 247,730 237,180 272,373 299,879 329,032 367,566 404,532 Railways 233,184 244,050 211,602 192,992 197,588 201,665 203,736 208,654 212,248 Marine 360,015 395,000 422,007 427,076 479,705 537,840 590,308 646,115 699,881 Non-road 788,050 911,104 1,013,688 1,121,508 1,232,009 1,354,232 1,481,900 1,611,014 1,738,312 Sub-Total 6,600,176 7,906,424 8,610,245 8,869,366 8,972,737 8,917,187 8,816,610 8,927,652 9,253,853

LFV Total 16,643,582 21,136,463 22,979,654 20,715,653 21,392,608 22,007,398 22,523,453 22,818,211 23,501,597





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-10 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

6

5

5

9



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1,113 1,102 1,091 1,081 1,070 Chemical Manufacturing 57,063 67,933 77,272 85,820 94,277 Electric Power Generation 996,741 1,263,136 1,056,641 644,108 442,237 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 57,968 59,510 61,215 63,025 64,841 Waste-to-Energy 116,611 115,472 114,345 113,228 112,122 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,963,541 1,841,198 1,771,023 1,758,418 1,746,471 Paper and Allied Products 72,062 72,091 72,064 72,035 71,999 Petroleum Products 2,105,946 2,069,911 2,041,784 2,040,274 2,038,811 Primary Metal Industries 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 120,856 130,468 132,325 133,349 134,643 Other 355,801 368,518 532,341 552,888 570,045 Sub-Total 6,014,130 6,155,767 6,026,529 5,630,654 5,442,944

Area SourcesAgricultural 5,854 6,404 6,997 7,636 8,330 Burning 9,101 9,892 10,677 11,468 12,256 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 5,647,495 5,839,075 6,212,863 6,610,710 6,936,285 Miscellaneous Area Sources 63 67 70 73 78 Sub-Total 5,662,512 5,855,438 6,230,607 6,629,886 6,956,949

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 5,302,847 4,855,442 3,848,908 3,256,231 2,707,156 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 1,342,939 1,407,099 1,354,904 1,425,768 1,495,377 Aircraft 260,467 285,643 311,667 346,980 378,172 Railways 171,365 174,609 176,133 179,795 182,437 Marine 432,063 463,878 485,240 509,972 533,671 Other Nonroad Equipment 1,182,123 1,288,789 1,395,992 1,505,982 1,612,613 Sub-Total 8,691,804 8,475,460 7,572,845 7,224,727 6,909,426

LFV Total 20,368,447 20,486,664 19,829,981 19,485,268 19,309,319

Table B-10 (cont'd): Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Chemical Manufacturing 58,242 70,167 80,773 90,790 100,944 Electric Power Generation 1,138,977 1,526,192 1,410,854 908,334 619,874 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 59,376 62,168 65,277 68,658 72,215 Waste-to-Energy 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 118,899 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2,123,155 2,060,333 2,069,786 2,078,334 2,087,744 Paper and Allied Products 73,711 74,971 76,218 77,509 78,840 Petroleum Products 2,190,912 2,195,976 2,200,226 2,204,696 2,209,396 Primary Metal Industries 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 123,814 136,388 141,174 145,224 149,725 Other 382,370 409,942 640,743 693,372 720,576 Sub-Total 6,437,020 6,822,599 6,971,514 6,553,379 6,325,775

Area SourcesAgricultural 5,936 6,641 7,421 8,286 9,250 Burning 9,199 10,010 10,821 11,634 12,440 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 6,173,763 6,652,258 7,359,403 8,093,351 8,806,305 Miscellaneous Area Sources 75 84 93 103 109 Sub-Total 6,188,973 6,668,993 7,377,738 8,113,373 8,828,104


LFV Total 22,298,493 24,081,616 25,901,897 27,350,674 29,045,096

Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 11: s Trends in Methane Emission Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Electric Power Generation 13 42 30 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 Paper and Allied Products 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 15 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 51 17 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 Misc. Point Sources 11 24 7 160 211 212 212 213 214 Sub-Total 105 95 65 186 243 245 240 241 242

Area SourcesAgricultural 3,812 3,740 3,591 3,479 3,454 3,405 3,350 3,295 3,242 Burning 308 312 310 411 359 359 360 360 360 Gasoline Marketing 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 Landfills 40,184 39,597 39,868 16,395 13,573 14,071 13,848 13,717 13,675 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 433 317 480 474 471 478 495 512 529 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,369 3,349 3,452 2,524 2,642 2,722 2,892 3,073 3,254 Sub-Total 47,107 47,315 47,702 23,286 20,502 21,037 20,947 20,959 21,062

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 542 569 435 325 267 228 202 191 190 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 109 115 112 94 83 77 72 71 71 Aircraft 35 27 32 29 32 35 38 45 50 Railways 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 Marine 18 20 22 22 25 28 31 34 37 Non-road 1,089 1,251 1,201 1,018 585 358 318 321 332 Sub-Total 1,802 1,990 1,809 1,494 999 733 668 670 689

Metro Vancouver 49,014 49,401 49,576 24,966 21,745 22,015 21,855 21,870 21,993



Area SourcesAgricultural 14,591 14,232 13,496 13,150 12,945 12,706 12,467 12,231 11,990 Burning 95 144 96 145 157 157 157 157 157 Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 - - - - - - Landfills 1,822 2,195 2,383 2,614 2,971 3,337 3,691 4,010 4,371 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 50 190 211 208 204 205 210 215 220 Miscellaneous Area Sources 249 352 362 265 277 286 303 322 341 Sub-Total 16,806 17,113 16,549 16,382 16,554 16,690 16,829 16,935 17,079


FVRD 17,430 17,758 17,274 17,252 17,391 17,513 17,686 17,839 18,033

able B-11: Trends in Methane Emissions (metric tonnes)T




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Electric Power Generation 13 42 30 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 2 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 Paper and Allied Products 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 16 4 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 51 17 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 Misc. Point Sources 349 362 459 804 884 905 949 996 1,043 Sub-Total 444 435 521 835 921 943 982 1,029 1,077

Area SourcesAgricultural 18,403 17,971 17,088 16,629 16,400 16,110 15,818 15,526 15,231 Burning 403 456 406 556 517 517 517 517 517 Gasoline Marketing 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 Landfills 42,006 41,792 42,251 19,009 16,544 17,408 17,539 17,727 18,046 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 483 507 692 683 675 682 704 726 748 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,617 3,700 3,814 2,789 2,919 3,007 3,196 3,395 3,596 Sub-Total 63,914 64,428 64,251 39,668 37,057 37,727 37,776 37,894 38,141

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 630 660 505 377 310 265 234 222 221 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 139 147 143 120 106 98 92 91 91 Aircraft 45 36 40 38 42 46 49 59 66 Railways 12 13 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 Marine 18 20 22 22 25 28 31 35 38 Non-road 1,242 1,420 1,356 1,149 664 410 366 369 382 Sub-Total 2,087 2,296 2,077 1,715 1,158 857 782 786 808


Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 1 117 176 235 193 276 311 195 133 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 0 0 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 34 23 23 0 - - - - - Petroleum Products 36 27 30 3 3 3 3 3 3 Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 - - - - - - Wood Products 5 3 2 - - - - - - Other 15 37 22 76 57 61 237 253 255 Sub-Total 91 206 255 314 253 339 551 450 391



Whatcom County 25,652 26,735 24,899 26,300 26,278 26,427 26,700 26,668 26,681

Table B-11 (cont'd): Trends in Methane Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Electric Power Generation 14 158 206 236 199 282 311 195 133 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste to Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 2 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 Paper and Allied Products 41 29 29 5 4 4 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 52 31 38 11 12 12 12 12 13 Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 - - - - - - Wood Products 56 20 14 10 12 12 12 12 12 Other 364 398 481 881 941 966 1,186 1,249 1,298 Sub-Total 535 641 776 1,150 1,174 1,283 1,533 1,480 1,468

Area SourcesAgricultural 42,415 42,949 40,506 41,473 41,252 40,971 40,688 40,405 40,119 Burning 603 682 558 664 631 636 640 645 649 Gasoline Marketing 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 Landfills 42,316 42,046 42,459 19,179 16,683 17,522 17,632 17,804 18,109 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 1,209 1,253 1,234 1,229 1,265 1,326 1,400 1,471 1,543 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,749 3,854 3,986 2,976 3,121 3,227 3,433 3,650 3,867 Sub-Total 89,294 90,786 88,744 65,523 62,955 63,685 63,795 63,977 64,290

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 721 742 567 425 344 296 259 246 244 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 154 160 155 133 118 110 103 103 104 Aircraft 58 50 54 49 56 60 64 74 81 Railways 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 Marine 21 23 26 27 30 35 39 44 48 Non-road 1,300 1,479 1,414 1,202 727 476 435 443 460 Sub-Total 2,268 2,467 2,229 1,846 1,285 988 912 921 949

LFV Total 92,097 93,894 91,749 68,518 65,414 65,956 66,240 66,377 66,707





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Methane Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-11 (cont'd): Trends in Methane Emissions (metric tonnes)

6



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 1 1 1 2 2 Electric Power Generation 185 255 274 167 115 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 4 4 4 4 4 Paper and Allied Products 4 4 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 10 10 10 10 10 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - Wood Products 12 12 12 12 12 Other 920 934 1,121 1,165 1,202 Sub-Total 1,137 1,222 1,427 1,364 1,350

Area SourcesAgricultural 41,073 40,659 40,247 39,843 39,441 Burning 568 572 577 581 585 Gasoline Marketing 2 2 2 2 3 Landfills 15,972 16,683 16,648 16,728 16,866 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,177 1,215 1,259 1,303 1,361 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2,981 3,061 3,225 3,407 3,582 Sub-Total 61,773 62,192 61,958 61,865 61,838

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 337 285 230 196 164 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 116 107 98 95 93 Aircraft 54 57 61 70 76 Railways 9 10 10 10 10 Marine 15 16 17 18 18 Other Nonroad Equipment 699 450 406 409 422 Sub-Total 1,230 925 821 797 783

LFV Total 64,141 64,338 64,206 64,026 63,971

Table B-11 (cont'd): Trends in Methane Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 1 1 2 2 2 Electric Power Generation 221 321 366 235 161 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 4 4 5 5 5 Paper and Allied Products 4 4 4 4 4 Petroleum Products 12 12 12 13 13 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - Wood Products 12 12 12 13 13 Other 956 1,002 1,275 1,371 1,446 Sub-Total 1,211 1,358 1,676 1,644 1,644

Area SourcesAgricultural 41,337 41,336 41,328 41,315 41,292 Burning 709 714 719 723 728 Gasoline Marketing 2 2 3 3 3 Landfills 16,881 17,982 18,354 18,802 19,405 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 1,339 1,434 1,545 1,659 1,748 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3,178 3,338 3,606 3,894 4,181 Sub-Total 63,447 64,807 65,554 66,396 67,358


LFV Total 65,985 67,252 68,304 69,183 70,227

Trends in Methane Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 12: Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Electric Power Generation 12 40 29 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 Paper and Allied Products 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 9 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 33 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 Misc. Point Sources 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 Sub-Total 70 68 57 27 33 34 29 30 31

Area SourcesAgricultural 118 123 137 130 144 155 166 178 191 Burning 81 65 65 117 87 87 87 87 87 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 68 85 92 90 97 102 111 120 129 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 268 273 293 337 328 345 365 386 407

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 403 728 738 582 470 375 320 303 302 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 17 20 29 30 33 37 42 46 50 Aircraft 17 16 17 17 19 21 23 26 29 Railways 62 65 55 50 51 52 52 53 54 Marine 38 46 46 43 47 50 53 57 60 Non-road 120 146 170 196 221 247 273 298 323 Sub-Total 657 1,020 1,056 918 841 782 764 783 818

Metro Vancouver 995 1,360 1,406 1,282 1,202 1,160 1,158 1,199 1,255


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Misc. Point Sources 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 Sub-Total 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Area SourcesAgricultural 305 314 340 335 368 395 424 455 487 Burning 22 47 20 31 38 38 38 38 38 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 8 14 15 12 13 13 14 15 16 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 336 374 375 378 418 446 476 508 541


FVRD 466 565 571 552 581 602 630 666 708

Table B-12: Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)




Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Electric Power Generation 12 40 29 1 6 6 - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 Paper and Allied Products 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 9 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 33 10 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 Misc. Point Sources 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 Sub-Total 72 69 58 29 34 35 30 31 32

Area SourcesAgricultural 424 437 477 465 512 550 591 633 678 Burning 103 112 85 148 125 125 125 125 125 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - LandfillsNatural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 77 98 106 102 109 115 125 135 145 Miscellaneous Area Sources - - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 604 647 668 714 746 791 841 893 948

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 468 845 858 676 546 435 372 352 350 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 22 25 37 38 42 47 53 58 64 Aircraft 18 17 19 19 21 23 26 29 33 Railways 90 95 81 73 75 76 76 78 79 Marine 38 46 47 44 47 51 54 57 60 Non-road 149 181 210 242 272 304 335 366 397 Sub-Total 786 1,210 1,251 1,092 1,003 936 916 941 983


Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 1 43 74 24 19 28 31 20 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste to Energy 3 3 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 0 0 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 26 17 18 0 - - - - - Petroleum Products 33 24 28 19 19 19 19 19 19 Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 - - - - - - Wood Products 3 2 2 - - - - - - Other 3 4 2 3 2 2 7 8 8 Sub-Total 69 93 123 46 41 49 57 46 40

Area SourcesAgricultural 255 269 260 276 281 286 291 295 300 Burning 86 98 106 24 26 27 28 29 30 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 11 12 12 15 17 18 20 21 22 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Sub-Total 353 381 380 319 326 334 342 349 356


Whatcom County 583 660 667 489 487 499 505 504 510

Table B-12 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemical Manufacturing 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Electric Power Generation 13 82 102 25 25 33 31 20 13 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Waste-to-Energy 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 Paper and Allied Products 31 22 22 4 3 3 3 3 3 Petroleum Products 42 28 32 24 24 24 24 24 24 Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 - - - - - - Wood Products 36 12 9 7 8 8 8 9 9 Other 7 9 8 8 8 8 13 14 15 Sub-Total 140 162 181 74 75 84 87 77 72

Area SourcesAgricultural 679 706 736 741 792 836 881 928 978 Burning 189 210 192 172 151 152 153 154 155 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills - - - - - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 88 110 118 117 126 133 145 156 167 Miscellaneous Area Sources 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Sub-Total 957 1,028 1,049 1,033 1,073 1,125 1,183 1,242 1,304

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 586 984 973 754 612 492 412 391 389 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 30 37 49 47 52 58 65 71 77 Aircraft 22 21 23 22 25 28 30 34 37 Railways 94 98 85 78 80 81 82 84 86 Marine 42 49 50 47 51 54 58 62 65 Non-road 174 206 235 269 304 339 374 408 443 Sub-Total 947 1,395 1,414 1,216 1,123 1,052 1,021 1,050 1,097

LFV Total 2,045 2,585 2,644 2,324 2,270 2,262 2,292 2,369 2,473





LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-12 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes)

3

84




Area SourcesAgricultural 787 825 865 905 948 Burning 120 120 121 122 123 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 117 121 128 136 143 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3 3 3 3 4 Sub-Total 1,026 1,070 1,118 1,167 1,218

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 601 474 366 309 257 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 50 55 60 64 67 Aircraft 24 26 29 32 35 Railways 69 70 71 72 74 Marine 47 50 52 54 56 Other Nonroad Equipment 293 324 353 383 412 Sub-Total 1,084 1,000 930 914 900

LFV Total 2,182 2,149 2,129 2,152 2,184

Table B-12 (cont'd): Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario



Area SourcesAgricultural 795 849 905 965 1,030 Burning 185 186 187 188 189 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - Landfills - - - - - Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 129 139 153 168 182 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3 4 4 5 5 Sub-Total 1,112 1,177 1,250 1,326 1,406


LFV Total 2,371 2,463 2,602 2,785 2,982

Trends in Nitrous Oxide Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Table B - 13: Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Metro Vancouver 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


Area SourcesAgricultural 118,647 118,682 119,873 115,400 119,587 122,279 124,885 127,658 130,747 Burning 33,100 27,522 27,225 45,719 35,348 35,351 35,354 35,358 35,361 Gasoline Marketing 35 22 22 43 48 50 52 54 57 Landfills 843,864 831,537 837,228 344,295 285,033 295,491 290,808 288,057 287,175 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Space Heating 3,747,532 4,560,092 4,864,892 4,756,641 5,158,693 5,460,732 5,948,642 6,438,948 6,905,643 Miscellaneous Area Sources 49,744 70,320 72,490 53,009 55,482 57,157 60,733 64,527 68,337 Sub-Total 4,792,923 5,608,176 5,921,729 5,315,108 5,654,191 5,971,060 6,460,475 6,954,601 7,427,320

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 3,208,424 4,158,818 4,450,363 4,505,287 4,367,405 4,031,498 3,692,103 3,490,868 3,462,800 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 621,890 727,114 877,062 881,498 894,220 962,540 1,041,591 1,130,068 1,228,230 Aircraft 188,860 176,462 193,695 187,503 212,311 235,584 261,415 296,062 329,938 Railways 172,122 180,673 154,776 140,227 143,140 145,508 146,419 149,059 150,698 Marine 307,549 341,981 369,142 365,879 411,550 460,439 504,849 552,591 598,219 Non-road 633,442 748,471 840,284 927,608 1,005,648 1,101,103 1,205,447 1,311,868 1,416,933 Sub-Total 5,132,288 6,333,519 6,885,322 7,008,001 7,034,274 6,936,672 6,851,825 6,930,516 7,186,819

Metro Vancouver 13,396,813 16,605,390 17,402,245 15,607,135 16,262,948 16,456,953 16,587,943 17,198,558 17,967,057


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - 1,251 - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation - - - - - - - - - Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy - - - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 7,956 8,450 14,893 12,310 12,426 12,637 12,828 13,000 13,174 Paper and Allied Products - - - - - - - - - Petroleum Products 9,895 12,283 10,925 12,221 11,351 12,514 13,410 14,325 15,258 Primary Metal Industries - - - - - - - - - Wood Products 13,243 13,243 8,986 6,172 6,719 7,664 7,941 8,148 8,382 Misc. Point Sources 56,405 56,576 57,066 34,685 35,997 38,122 40,702 43,729 46,783 Sub-Total 87,499 91,802 91,870 65,388 66,493 70,938 74,882 79,202 83,597

Area SourcesAgricultural 403,268 398,499 391,237 382,455 388,506 392,304 396,654 401,431 406,832 Burning 8,915 17,590 8,442 12,760 15,234 15,234 15,234 15,235 15,235 Gasoline Marketing 2 8 8 - - - - - - Landfills 38,262 46,095 50,043 54,894 62,391 70,077 77,511 84,210 91,791 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 461,583 645,088 682,283 534,494 577,899 610,035 662,723 715,618 766,007 Miscellaneous Area Sources 5,220 7,383 7,606 5,562 5,822 5,997 6,373 6,771 7,171 Sub-Total 917,250 1,114,663 1,139,618 990,165 1,049,853 1,093,647 1,158,495 1,223,264 1,287,035

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 518,105 671,578 718,657 727,526 705,261 651,018 596,211 563,715 559,183 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 171,113 200,065 241,323 242,544 246,044 264,842 286,593 310,938 337,947 Aircraft 16,366 14,707 16,239 21,802 26,268 28,240 30,369 35,070 38,189 Railways 80,131 84,111 72,055 64,183 65,517 66,600 67,017 68,226 68,976 Marine 3,181 4,001 3,899 4,426 4,980 5,263 5,538 5,957 6,319 Non-road 124,966 146,637 164,854 182,579 199,504 218,679 238,453 258,709 278,819 Sub-Total 913,863 1,121,099 1,217,028 1,243,060 1,247,574 1,234,643 1,224,181 1,242,614 1,289,433

FVRD 1,918,611 2,327,564 2,448,516 2,298,613 2,363,920 2,399,228 2,457,558 2,545,080 2,660,065

Table B-13 : Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes)





Area SourcesAgricultural 521,915 517,181 511,110 497,855 508,093 514,583 521,539 529,089 537,579 Burning 42,016 45,113 35,666 58,479 50,582 50,585 50,589 50,592 50,596 Gasoline Marketing 37 30 30 43 48 50 52 54 57 Landfills 882,126 877,632 887,271 399,189 347,424 365,568 368,319 372,267 378,966 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 4,209,116 5,205,180 5,547,175 5,291,136 5,736,593 6,070,767 6,611,365 7,154,566 7,671,650 Miscellaneous Area Sources 54,964 77,703 80,096 58,571 61,304 63,154 67,106 71,297 75,508 Sub-Total 5,710,173 6,722,838 7,061,348 6,305,273 6,704,043 7,064,707 7,618,970 8,177,865 8,714,355

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 3,726,530 4,830,396 5,169,020 5,232,813 5,072,666 4,682,515 4,288,314 4,054,583 4,021,983 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 793,003 927,179 1,118,385 1,124,042 1,140,264 1,227,382 1,328,185 1,441,006 1,566,177 Aircraft 205,226 191,169 209,935 209,304 238,579 263,825 291,784 331,132 368,127 Railways 252,253 264,784 226,831 204,410 208,657 212,108 213,435 217,285 219,674 Marine 310,730 345,981 373,041 370,305 416,530 465,702 510,387 558,548 604,538 Non-road 758,408 895,108 1,005,138 1,110,187 1,205,152 1,319,782 1,443,900 1,570,577 1,695,753 Sub-Total 6,046,151 7,454,618 8,102,350 8,251,061 8,281,848 8,171,315 8,076,006 8,173,130 8,476,252

Canadian LFV Total 15,315,424 18,932,954 19,850,760 17,905,748 18,626,867 18,856,180 19,045,501 19,743,638 20,627,122

Whatcom County 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals - - - - - - - - - Chemical Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - Electric Power Generation 17,163 1,505,074 2,254,510 919,135 756,745 1,078,704 1,216,917 762,386 521,421 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication - - - - - - - - - Waste-to-Energy 29,893 28,480 - - - - - - - Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries - 6,468 11,798 - - - - - - Paper and Allied Products 82,529 55,332 56,582 11,293 - - - - - Petroleum Products 1,825,942 1,350,513 1,533,927 1,713,345 1,713,345 1,713,345 1,713,345 1,713,345 1,713,345 Primary Metal Industries 20,168 17,891 19,995 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 2,655 1,566 1,233 - - - - - - Other 101,532 143,132 78,364 126,087 109,485 116,152 299,237 318,245 323,223 Sub-Total 2,079,881 3,108,455 3,956,409 2,936,288 2,746,004 3,074,629 3,395,927 2,960,405 2,724,418

Area SourcesAgricultural 583,832 608,614 572,957 608,144 609,710 611,523 613,312 615,022 616,760 Burning 35,770 41,025 42,884 17,295 18,756 19,942 21,127 22,311 23,495 Gasoline Marketing - - - - - - - - - Landfills 6,517 5,335 4,367 3,576 2,928 2,398 1,963 1,607 1,316 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 291,257 273,103 301,028 364,837 394,508 430,310 464,578 497,688 531,341 Miscellaneous Area Sources 3,458 4,036 4,515 4,883 5,280 5,759 6,218 6,661 7,112 Sub-Total 920,834 932,113 925,751 998,736 1,031,182 1,069,933 1,107,198 1,143,289 1,180,023

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 509,306 530,179 568,426 548,538 535,840 521,749 464,700 443,790 436,277 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 162,252 176,912 191,265 245,084 257,620 270,828 285,983 305,468 326,236 Aircraft 40,047 43,471 46,010 35,660 42,731 45,858 47,959 48,460 49,638 Railways 10,327 10,031 11,446 12,911 13,840 14,979 15,985 17,673 19,330 Marine 62,602 64,795 64,934 71,957 79,558 89,746 98,684 107,589 116,510 Non-road 110,783 110,804 110,974 119,977 136,280 149,641 163,041 176,344 189,529 Sub-Total 895,317 936,191 993,055 1,034,127 1,065,869 1,092,801 1,076,351 1,099,325 1,137,519

Whatcom County 3,896,032 4,976,759 5,875,215 4,969,151 4,843,055 5,237,364 5,579,476 5,203,019 5,041,960

Table B-13 (cont'd) : Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes)



Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 881 640 919 1,032 1,141 1,141 1,141 1,141 1,141 Chemical Manufacturing 137,074 56,862 68,942 64,397 58,537 70,374 80,838 90,667 100,584 Electric Power Generation 696,547 3,668,719 3,825,496 987,163 1,068,800 1,390,759 1,216,917 762,386 521,421 Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 109,189 43,125 50,597 55,995 59,474 61,658 64,050 66,594 69,189 Waste-to-Energy 101,506 104,949 107,774 116,746 119,871 119,871 119,871 119,871 119,871 Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 1,267,572 1,552,006 1,901,584 2,040,901 2,123,323 2,059,570 2,067,866 2,075,050 2,082,873 Paper and Allied Products 210,159 184,791 209,493 127,455 74,454 75,213 75,921 76,634 77,346 Petroleum Products 2,642,863 1,700,244 1,976,122 2,195,071 2,198,198 2,202,362 2,205,570 2,208,843 2,212,183 Primary Metal Industries 20,168 17,891 19,995 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 166,428 Wood Products 128,388 132,555 120,415 137,642 125,994 137,203 140,487 142,941 145,717 Other 324,636 402,172 362,134 392,872 390,760 410,208 607,363 642,493 664,181 Sub-Total 5,638,982 7,863,952 8,643,472 6,285,701 6,386,979 6,694,787 6,746,452 6,353,047 6,160,933

Area SourcesAgricultural 1,105,747 1,125,795 1,084,067 1,105,999 1,117,803 1,126,106 1,134,851 1,144,111 1,154,339 Burning 77,786 86,138 78,550 75,774 69,338 70,528 71,716 72,903 74,091 Gasoline Marketing 37 30 30 43 48 50 52 54 57 Landfills 888,643 882,967 891,638 402,765 350,352 367,966 370,282 373,874 380,282 Natural Sources - - - - - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - - - - - Heating 4,500,372 5,478,283 5,848,203 5,655,973 6,131,101 6,501,077 7,075,943 7,652,254 8,202,991 Miscellaneous Area Sources 58,422 81,738 84,611 63,454 66,584 68,913 73,324 77,958 82,619 Sub-Total 6,631,007 7,654,951 7,987,099 7,304,010 7,735,226 8,134,640 8,726,168 9,321,155 9,894,378

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 4,235,836 5,360,575 5,737,447 5,781,352 5,608,506 5,204,264 4,753,015 4,498,373 4,458,260 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 955,255 1,104,091 1,309,649 1,369,126 1,397,884 1,498,210 1,614,168 1,746,475 1,892,413 Aircraft 245,273 234,640 255,945 244,964 281,310 309,683 339,743 379,592 417,766 Railways 262,580 274,815 238,277 217,321 222,497 227,087 229,420 234,958 239,004 Marine 373,332 410,776 437,975 442,262 496,088 555,448 609,071 666,137 721,048 Non-road 869,192 1,005,912 1,116,112 1,230,164 1,341,432 1,469,424 1,606,941 1,746,921 1,885,282 Sub-Total 6,941,468 8,390,809 9,095,405 9,285,188 9,347,717 9,264,116 9,152,357 9,272,456 9,613,772

LFV Total 19,211,457 23,909,713 25,725,976 22,874,899 23,469,923 24,093,544 24,624,977 24,946,657 25,669,082


Point SourcesBulk Shipping Terminals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Chemical Manufacturing 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electric Power Generation 4 15 15 4 5 6 5 3 2Metal Foundries and Metal Fabrication 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Waste-to-Energy 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0Non-metallic Mineral Processing Industries 7 6 7 9 9 9 8 8 8Paper and Allied Products 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Petroleum Products 14 7 8 10 9 9 9 9 9Primary Metal Industries 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Wood Products 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1Other 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3Sub-Total 29 33 34 27 27 28 27 25 2

Area Sources

4

Agricultural 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4Burning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Gasoline Marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Landfills 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 1Natural Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Solvent Evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Heating 23 23 23 25 26 27 29 31 3Miscellaneous Area Sources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Total 35 32 31 32 33 34 35 37 3

Mobile SourcesLight-Duty Vehicles 22 22 22 25 24 22 19 18 17Heavy-Duty Vehicles 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7

2

9

Aircraft 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2Railways 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Marine 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3Non-road 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7Sub-Total 36 35 35 41 40 38 37 37 3

LFV Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Percent of LFV Emissions)

Table B-13 (cont'd) : Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes)

7




Area SourcesAgricultural 1,112,277 1,116,125 1,120,331 1,124,950 1,130,403 Burning 58,086 59,263 60,425 61,599 62,769 Gasoline Marketing 46 47 49 51 53 Landfills 335,414 350,334 349,600 351,293 354,184 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 5,708,500 5,902,124 6,279,110 6,680,295 7,009,168 Miscellaneous Area Sources 63,566 65,313 68,810 72,676 76,421 Sub-Total 7,277,889 7,493,206 7,878,325 8,290,866 8,632,996


LFV Total 22,391,929 22,504,010 21,838,273 21,496,883 21,329,679

Table B-13 (cont'd): Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes) - Low Scenario



Area SourcesAgricultural 1,120,438 1,137,778 1,155,964 1,175,111 1,195,735 Burning 81,304 82,528 83,753 84,979 86,193 Gasoline Marketing 48 51 54 57 61 Landfills 354,507 377,625 385,426 394,851 407,505 Natural Sources - - - - - Solvent Evaporation - - - - - Heating 6,241,877 6,725,480 7,439,411 8,180,354 8,899,567 Miscellaneous Area Sources 67,898 71,403 77,171 83,358 89,500 Sub-Total 7,866,073 8,394,864 9,141,779 9,918,711 10,678,560


LFV Total 24,419,334 26,257,421 28,142,815 29,666,981 31,444,338

Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes) - High Scenario


Additional Information Questions and comments concerning the information presented in this report can be addressed to:

Metro Vancouver Policy & Planning Department

Air Quality Policy & Management Division 4330 Kingsway, Burnaby, B.C. V5H 4G8

Telephone: (604) 451-6039 Fax: (604) 436-6701

E-mail: [email protected]: www.metrovancouver.org

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.metrovancouver.org/

2005 lower fraser valley air emissions inventory & forecast … · 2014. 9. 2. · di cenzo,...

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