2004 technical summit overview
DESCRIPTION
2004 Technical Summit Overview. January 26-27, 2004 Tempe, AZ. Technical Summit Objectives. Review status of each Forum’s planned 2004 technical work (scope, purpose, deliverables, & schedule) Develop a master schedule for technical deliverables - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2004 Technical Summit Overview
January 26-27, 2004
Tempe, AZ
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Technical Summit Objectives
Review status of each Forum’s planned 2004 technical work (scope, purpose, deliverables, & schedule)
Develop a master schedule for technical deliverables
Discuss technical data and analyses needed for §308/§309(g) Reasonable Progress demonstration
Provide an update on the Attribution of Haze project
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Alaska
Somewhat unique problems
Inventory
Meteorology
Modeling
International transport
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Annual Mean Natural Background Aerosol Estimates1
Particle Component East (μg/m3) West (μg/m3) Error Factor
PM2.5
Sulfate (NH4HSO4) 0.2 0.1 2
Organics 1.5 0.5 2
Elemental Carbon 0.02 0.02 2 – 3
Ammonium Nitrate 0.1 0.1 2
Soil Dust 0.5 0.5 1.5 – 2
Water 1.0 0.25 2
PM10 3.0 3.0 1.5 - 2
1. From John Trijonis, NAPAP State of Science #24, Appendix A, 1991
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Implications of IMPROVEAmbient Monitoring Data - Dust
Implications of IMPROVEAmbient Monitoring Data - Dust
Fine soil and coarse particles are responsible for about 6 to 26% of the annual average reconstructed aerosol light extinction.Fine soil can account for about 10 to 30% of the fine particulate mass.The contribution of fine soil to the aerosol extinction on the haziest days in the West is almost always below 10%, but can be as high as 40%.Coarse material generally contributes less than 20%, but is frequently higher, reaching as high as 90% of the aerosol extinction.
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Estimate uniform ROPneeded to reach natural
conditions in 2064
Determine emission reductionsattributable to BART
States / tribes provide2002 EI to WRAP
States / tribes request2018 modeling runs
Complete modeling andcauses-of-haze analysis
Complete assessment ofstrategies (including appor-tionment and econ analysis)
WPAP endorsement ofstrategies and reason-able progress goals
Technical sup-port document
Determine which Class I areaseach SIP/TIP will address
Complete initial (1996)technical assessment (source
apportionment, impact ofexisting controls, etc.)
Phase I Phase II
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Initial Technical Assessmentand Strategy Development
Final Technical Assessmentand Strategy Selection
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Definitions
As they apply to emissions sources for WRAP technical analysis projects:
Apportionment – to divide and share out according to a plan, to make a porportionate division or distribution
Attribution – to explain by indicating a cause
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Data and Analyses Needed forTOC Attribution of Haze Project
Review results of existing source attribution studies – April 30Framework for addressing technical Reasonable Progress and Natural Conditions guidance requirements – June 30Modeling Results
Initial Source Apportionment Results - June 30Natural versus Anthropogenic results – September 30
Initial Causes of Haze Assessment results – June 30Emissions Inventories
Descriptions of EIs used in initial SA modeling – June 30Descriptions of EIs used in NvsA modeling – September 30
Additional emissions and monitoring data expert review studies (address uncertainty, completeness, et cetera) – July to October
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Class I areas Analyzed for §309 Strategies
§309 Modeling Grid(36km grid cells)
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Unified RPO Modeling Grid for §308 (red, 36km grid cells)WRAP Modeling Grid for §308/§309(g) (blue, 12km grid cells)
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Emissions Data for use inInitial Source Apportionment Modeling (April-June 2004)
Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust)Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt)Dust – by RMC - windblown module v1, using 2002 metRoad dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON dataFire – Air Sciences (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 interim EIOn-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRONOff-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000)Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs + 2002 EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for §309 2018 base case)Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire?Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states)Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera)Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?
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Emissions Data for use in Natural versus Anthropogenic Source Apportionment Modeling (August – October 2004)
Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust)Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt)Dust – by RMC - windblown module v2, using 2002 metRoad dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON dataFire – contractor TBD (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 final EI, NvsA split On-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRONOff-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000)Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs + 2002 EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for §309 2018 base case)Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire?Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states)Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera)Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?
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Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g)
2002 Interim EIs (done as of April 2004)Support initial source apportionment modeling;
From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; and
Provide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses.
2002 Natural/Anthropogenic fire EI splits (initial analysis as of August 2004)
Support modeling analyses of NvsA haze contributions
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Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g)
2002 Final EIs (done as of December 2004)
Support 2005 and later source apportionment modeling;From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; andProvide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses.