Measuring Internet Impact in Latin America

November 15, 2013George Washington University

Carolina Rossini, LLM, MBA, MA, JD

Project Director, Latin America Resource CenterNew America Foundation

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

20

25

Countries with National Broadband Plan (2012)

> Source: ITU/CISCO (2013)

  ARGENTINA BRAZIL COLOMBIA

NAME OF INITIATIVE

Argentina Conectada

Plano Nacional de Banda Larga

(PNBL)Vive Digital

GEOGRAPHICAL TARGET

100% municipalities

76% municipalities

62% municipalities

PRICE/QUALITY TARGET

10Mbps 1Mbps at US$ 20 per month 1Mbps

TOTAL INVESTMENT $1.8 billion USD $3.25 billion USD $2.25 billion USD

TOTAL PER CAPITA $44.2 USD $16.6 USD $48.6 USD

TOTAL AS % GDP 0.4% 0.13% 0.78%

DURATION 2011-2015 2010-2014 2010-2014

> Source: ITU/CISCO (2013)

Primary Secondary0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Countries with ICT in Education programs

ARGENTINA BRAZIL URUGUAY

NAME OF INITIATIVE Conectar Igualdad Programa Banda

Larga nas Escolas** Plan Ceibal***

TARGET Secondary Primary and secondary

Primary and secondary

CONNECTIVITY No Yes Yes

EQUIPMENT Yes (laptop) No Yes (OLPC)

TOTAL ANNUAL INVESTMENT ~700M USD n/a ~50M USD

TOTAL AS % EDUCATION EXPENDITURE

10% n/a 5%

YEAR STARTED 2010 2010 2008

* http://www.conectarigualdad.gob.ar/ **http://portal.mec.gov.br/index.php?Itemid=823&id=15808&option=com_content&view=article

***http://www.ceibal.org.uy/

283 municipalities

57 municipalities

265 municipalities

63 municipalities

150 municipalities

Source: http://emec.mec.gov.br/

AUTHOR(S) DATA RESULTS

QIANG AND ROSSOTTO (2009)

120 countries, 1980-2006.

10 p.p. increase in broadband yields an additional 1.38 p.p. of

GDP growth.

KOUTROUMPIS (2009) 22 OECD countries, 2002–2007.

A 10% increase in broadband increases GDP growth by an

average of 0.25%

CZERNICH ET AL. (2011).

25 OECD countries, 1996-2007.

A 10 p.p. increase in broadband raises annual per-capita growth

by 0.9-1.5 p.p.

LEHR ET AL. (2006). ZIP codes and

states (US), 1998–2002.

Broadband availability increases employment by 1.5% and

businesses by 0.5%. No effect on wages.

CRANDALL, R. ET AL. (2007).

States (USA), 2003-2005.

A 10% increase in the penetration rate increases employment by 2%.

No effect on GDP growth.

Source: Estimating broadband demand and its economic impact in latin america raul l. katz

(2009)

DIRSI Project Motivation: Recent Public Investments In Broadband Raise Questions About Development Impact

Does the evidence about positive impacts support these public investments?

How are benefits being appropriated? How large are impact externalities? What is the distributional impact?

How cost-effective are these programs? How to improve program design and implementation?

BETTER MARKET COORDINATION

BETTER LABOR MATCHING

INCREASE SOCIAL CAPITAL

Growth effect

HH ADOPTION OF BROADBAND

BROADBAND IN SCHOOLS

FIRM ADOPTION OF BROADBAND

ICT SKILLSACQUISITION

INFORMATION GAINS

Employment effect

INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY

Governance effect

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> . Panel of municipalities between 2005-2011 (~ 5,000 obs.). Sources: HH survey (GEIH), MinTIC, and DNP.. OLS regressions, IV =average slope of terrain.. Proxies for economic activity: tax revenues and # firms.. Basic model: . Key questions:

> Does faster broadband adoption yield more economic activity (growth effect)?> Is the effect different for HH vs. corporate adoption?> Does access speed matter (256 vs. 512 vs. 1024kbps)?

> . Broadband has a positive impact on economic activity> A 10% increase in penetration yields 0,4% in tax revenues> A 10% increase in penetration yields 4% in # firms

. The magnitude of effects is similar for HH and corporate adoption

> HH adoption also has effect on # firms

. The magnitude of effects is similar for different speed levels

> What really matters is connectivity, not speed

> ECUADOR: DATA, METHOD AND KEY QUESTIONS

> . Panel of individuals between 2009-2011 reporting labor income and ICT module:

> Treatment group: 8,785 individuals> Control group: 7,664 individuals

. Sources: National HH survey and SENATEL.

. T-test reveals groups have similar mean in variables of interest at baseline (2009). Basic model: . Key questions:

> Has income raise more in municipalities connected in 2010-2011?> Are there differences between adopters and non adopters?> Are there heterogeneous effects (by age/gender/occupations)?

> ECUADOR: KEY FINDINGS

> . Broadband has a positive impact on labor income (regardless of adoption)

> Increase in individual labor income of $25,7 USD over 2-year period> 7.5% increase over initial sample average (3.6% per year)

. The effect is larger for those adopting broadband> Increase in individual labor income of $51,8 USD over 2-year period> 10,3% increase over initial sample average (5% per year)

. The overall effect is larger for men than for women> Yet gender difference disappears among broadband adopters

• Overall the findings confirm that increased broadband adoption by households

and firms results in higher levels of economic activity and raises household

income (as much as 7.5% over a two-year period in some specifications),

although employment effects are found to be inconclusive.

• While the findings suggest that local externalities are present, the impact is

found to be significantly higher for individuals adopting broadband services.

• In addition the income effect of broadband was found to be larger for men than

for women. The hypothesis is that this is due to differences in human capital as

well as to gender differences in occupations, which in Latin America are still

affected by traditional views about gender roles.

CASE STUDY COUNTRY DATA SOURCES METHODOLOGY

CONNECTED TO LEARN?THE EFFECT OF BROADBAND INTERNET ON SCHOOL QUALITY IN BRAZIL.

Brazil

Panel data of students and

teachers 2007-2011.

 

Number of observations:

between 83,000 and 124,000.

School census and test scores from

Ministry of Education.

Administrative data for PBLE from

ANATEL.

Regression models that exploit the phase-

in of the program.

CAN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES (ICTS) HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CHILE.

Chile

Two cohorts of primary-level

students in public schools (2005-

2011). 

Number of observations:

between 110,000 and

133,000.

Test scores (SIMCE) and information about ENLACES program from

Ministry of Education.

Difference-in-difference with

matching.

INTERNET ACCESS, TYPE OF ACCESS AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FOR THE PERUVIAN CASE.

Peru

Panel data of students at school level (2007-2011).

 

Number of observations:

10,000.

School Census and test scores data from Ministry of

Education.

Difference-in-difference with

matching.

2013 Freedom On The Net

• This methodology applies a three-pillared approach to capture the level of internet and ICT freedom:

– Obstacles to Access—including infrastructural and economic barriers to access, legal and ownership control over internet service providers (ISPs), and independence of regulatory bodies;

– Limits on Content—including legal regulations on content, technical filtering and blocking of websites, self-censorship, the vibrancy/diversity of online news media, and the use of ICTs for civic mobilization;

– Violations of User Rights—including surveillance, privacy, and repercussions for online activity, such as imprisonment, extralegal harassment, or cyber attacks.

http://googlepublicpolicy.blogspot.in/2013/11/government-requests-for-user.html

Role of Companies

Article 19 and CGI.Br

• Dos 173 court decisions

o 165 offense to honoro 3 privacy violationso 3 copyright infringement o 2 trademark infringement

Take Down of Content

• PRESENT:o 74 of 173 decisions (42,7% ) take down of specific

contento 1 case (offense to honour) take down of the URL

(= whole site)

• FUTURE: In 8 court decisions (4,8%) the court prohibited any publications of same nature

Freedom of Expression in Court Decisions

• In 51 of 173 (29,4%) there was some discussion of freedom of expression

• All the 51 cases were concerned to offense to honor

• Beyond numbers, methodologies of indexes do provide a good roadmap for issues to be addressed by policy, research, advocacy and training

Thank youcarolina.rossini@gmail.com