2

OCEAN IRON FERTILIZATIONA perspective on responsible commercial approaches

Margaret LeinenClimos, Inc.

Further material at: climos.com/iucn.php

3

"From a conservation perspective, a major attraction of biodiversity business is the potential to generate new and additional investment in conservation activities.

"At the same time, some people remain skeptical of the motives of the private sector; while others worry that market-based approaches may distort conservation priorities.

"Nevertheless, this report argues that not exploring what markets can deliver is no longer an option.

-IUCN Report: Building Biodiversity Business (March 2008)

Emissions are above scenario projections:

50-year constant growth rates to 2050

B1 1.1%,

A1B 1.7%,

A2 1.8%

A1FI 2.4%

Observed 2000-2006 3.3%

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 Emissions (GtC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA

450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI

A1B A1T

A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 Emissions (GtC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisation

A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1

B2

20062005

Raupach, et al., 2007

Smallest extent of Arctic sea ice ever measured

September 2005 September 2007

US National Snow & Ice Data Center, 2007

6

What are the concerns about OIF?

▪Efficacy — It won’t work

▪Safety — It might harm the ocean

▪Risk of unintended consequences

7

Nov 2007

Jan 2008

Apr 2008

Mar 2008

8

How can the uncertainties be addressed? - recommendations from Science Policy Forum/SCOR/IOC statements:• Larger and longer field studies• New production and respiration• Subsurface measurements of fate of

carbon, including pH• Broad assessment of ecological impacts

(food web, potential for toxins, etc.)• In-patch and downstream effects• Air-sea flux• Understanding O2, N2O, and other gases• Long term monitoring• Modeling temporal and spatial

sequestration and impacts• Comparison of OIF benefits relative to

other strategies

9

OIF impacts

• Important to distinguish the impacts of a few experimental patches from long term consequences of large scale commercialization

• International Oceanographic Commission ad hoc group has emphasized that experimental patches will not harm the ocean

10

About Climos

• Founded in 2006 to pursue large scale mechanisms to mitigate global warming – including ocean iron fertilization

• Private sector funding and public sector science

• Committed to working collaboratively with scientists, NGOs and regulators

• Science Advisory Board includes some of the world’s leaders in ocean and climate sciences

11

Ensuring integrity: Climos voluntary code of conduct• Science concerns

• Independence• Quality of science• Transparency and availability of data

• Regulatory approval• Following IMO guidance• Environmental Impact Assessment• Avoiding sensitive areas• Compliance with local regulations

• Market concerns• Methodology• Verification• Registration

12

Ensuring integrity: Climos voluntary code of conduct

•Science concerns•Independence•Quality of science•Transparency and availability of data

13

Our Proposal

• Fund a series of 4-5 annual moderate scale (200 x 200km) demonstrations of ocean iron fertilization (OIF) in the same location

• Conducted by the international research community, funded by the private sector

• Expand on the number and sophistication of sequestration measurements

• Equal emphasis on carbon sequestration efficiency and environmental impact

• Total freedom to publish all results• All data made publicly available

immediately

14

Regulatory framework

IMO/LC Scientific Group met in summer 2007

Per requests by Greenpeace and the IUCN, issued a “statement of concern” about OIF

IMO/LC parties met in London, Nov 2007Consider themselves appropriate body to consider, regulateEstablished ad hoc OIF study groupexpressed caution about issuing permitsSaid “large scale” not yet justified

LC Scientific Group meeting May 19 to 23 in Guayaquil, Ecuador

Received science community justification for 200x200km scale experimentsClimos presented on our activitiesWill report back to LC later this month

15

Ensuring integrity: Climos voluntary code of conduct

•Regulatory approval•Follow IMO guidance•Environmental Impact Assessment

•Avoiding sensitive areas (MPAs, etc.)

•Compliance with local regulations

16

Our Proposal

• Located in international waters – far from shore where water depth is 3000-5000m

• All activity in accordance with the International Maritime Organization London Convention on Ocean Dumping

• Peer-reviewed Environmental Impact Assessment Model

• Environmental Impact Assessment for specific area

17

Ensuring integrity: Climos voluntary code of conduct• Science concerns

• Independence• Quality of science• Transparency and availability of data

• Regulatory approval• Following IMO guidance• Environmental Impact Assessment• Avoiding sensitive areas• Compliance with local regulations

• Market concerns• Methodology• Verification• Registration

18

Our Proposal

• Peer-reviewed methodology published in advance

• Validation of methodology by independent verifier

• Verification of measurements and models by independent verifier

• Registration of all CO2 sequestered

• No credits sold unless verified

19

12 month plans• Complete peer-reviewed environmental assessment

• Work with IMO LC to identify permitting needs for moderate scale projects

• International science outreach• Co-host series of science workshops• Identify lead scientist and process for completing science team

• Complete project design, identify location

• Develop methodology• Agreement with verifier• Seek approval(s)

Further material at: Further material at: climos.com/iucn.phpclimos.com/iucn.php