2-1 chapter two applying scientific thinking to management problems

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Chapter TwoAPPLYING SCIENTIFIC

THINKING TO MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

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Outline

• Style of ThinkingSources of Knowledge

• The Thought Process : ReasoningDeduction, Induction, Combining D&I, Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method

• The Scientific Attitude

• Understanding Theory : Components and ConnectionsConcepts, Constructs, Definitions, Variables, Propositions and Hypotheses, Theory, Models

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Empiricism( 觀察實驗主義實證主義 )

• To denote observations and propositions based on sense experience and/or derived from such experience by methods of inductive logic, including mathematics and statistics.

• Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions by relying on information gained through observation.

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Idealism( 理想主義唯心論 )

• 表現完美的境界而不問是否與現實相符 .

• 多數的文學作品傾向於此• 每個人或多或少都有此傾向

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Rationalism( 理性主義 )

• the belief that all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature

• From the time of Sir Francis Bacon to the present, adherents of rationalism have maintained that problems are best understood and resolved through formal logic or mathematics. Such efforts, of course, operate independently of observation and data collection

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Existentialism( 存在主義 )

• 存在主義是西方哲學理性主義的反動，傳統理性主義認為人有本質，以亞理士多德為代表，本質就是理性，人都要趨向這本質。即是有一個模型先存在，人都要依照這模型方式做人。這是所謂「本質先於存在」。存在主義就是反對這種定義了人的方式，認為人的本質不是預先定好的，人是自由的，人的本質是要自己創造的。你如何存在，這存在便是你的本質，才是人的本質。因此說「存在先於本質」。

• 尼采沙特等

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Sources of Knowledge

• Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions through observation

• Rationalists believe all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature

• Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case

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Styles of Thinking

• Untested opinion

“That’s the way we’ve always done it here”

Historically, myth, superstition, and hunch have been serious competitors for scientific thinking

• Self-evident truth

“Everyone drives on the right side of the world”

“Women make inferior managers.”

“Men of noble birth are natural leaders.”

“Red-Light Traffic Sign”

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Styles of Thinking

• Method of AuthorityAuthorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case.Too often authority may depend on status or position rather on true expertise

• Literary StyleThe literary style of thinking is used in many classic case studies in the social science.Because it is difficult to generalize from individual case studies, the literary style of thought restricts our ability to derive generally applicable knowledge or truths.

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Styles of Thinking

• Scientific Method“Current scientific methods wed the best aspects of the logic of rational approach with the observational aspects of the empirical orientation into a cohesive, systematic perspective.”

• Postulational StyleSome studies in OR and marketing are often postulational. For example, many firms run computer simulations of their market before a product rollout. (Exhibit 2-1)

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The Essential Tenets of Science

• Direct observation of phenomena

• Clearly defined variables, methods, and procedures

• Empirically testable hypotheses

• Ability to rule out rival hypotheses

• Statistical justification of conclusions

• Self-correcting process

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Exhibit 2-1

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The Thought Process: ReasoningWays to Communicate

• Exposition – descriptive statements that merely state

and do not give reason

• Argument– allows us to explain, interpret, defend,

challenge, and explore meaning

Two types of argument of great importance to research are deduction and induction.

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Important Arguments in Research

• Deduction is a form of inference that purports to be conclusive – the conclusion must necessarily follow from the reasons given.

• Induction draws conclusions from one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence. The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusions.

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Important Arguments in Research

• Deduction is the process by which we arrive at a reasoned conclusion by logically generalizing from a known fact.

• Induction is a process where we observe certain phenomena and on this basis arrive at conclusions. In other words, in induction we logically establish a general proposition based on observed facts.

“The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis.”

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Deduction ( 演繹 )

• (P1) All regular employees can be trusted not to steal.

• (P2) John is a regular employee.• (C) John can be trusted not to steal.

• (P1) Inner-city household interviewing is especially difficult and expensive.

• (P2) This survey involves substantial inner-city household interviewing.

• (C) The interviewing in this survey will be especially difficult and expensive.

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Induction ( 歸納 )

• “Light bulb burns out” case• To induce is to draw a conclusion from

one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence.

• The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusion.

• The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis.

• It is one explanation, but there are others that fit the facts just as well.

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• Fact: “Sales did not increase during or after the promotional campaign.”

• Ask: “Why didn’t sales increase ?”• One likely conclusion (by experience):

“The promotional campaign was poorly executed.”

• Others: “Regional retailers did not have sufficient stock”, “A strike by the employees of our trucking firm”, “Hurricane (or typhoon)”.

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• The inductive conclusion is an inferential jump beyond the evidence presented.

• One conclusion explains the fact, other conclusions also can explain the fact.

• It may even be that none of the conclusions we advanced correctly explain the fact.

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Combined deduction and induction

• “double movement of reflective thought”

• Exhibit 2-2

• Exhibit 2-3

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Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method

• Induction and deduction, observation, and hypothesis testing can be combined in a systematic way to illustrate the scientific method.

• They are particularly appropriate for researchers whose conclusions depend on empirical data.

• 8 items on page 40

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Scientific Attitude

• If the tools of thinking are the mind of science, then the scientific attitude is the spirit.

• The scientific attitude unleashes the creative drive that makes discovery possible.

• Imagination, intuition, curiosity, suspicion, anguish, the rage to know, self-doubt.

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Hawthorne Studies

• Productivity vs. Worker Satisfaction

• Scientific Management vs. Behavioral Research

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Understanding Theory: Components and ConnectionsThe Building Blocks of Theory

• Concepts

• Constructs

• Definitions

• Variables

• Propositions and Hypotheses

• Theories

• Models

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Understanding Concepts

• A concept is a bundle of meanings or characteristics associated with certain events, objects, conditions, situations, and behaviors

• Concepts have been developed over time through shared usage

• Concrete: dog or table

Abstract : leadership, personality, motivation, etc.

Such abstract concepts are often called constructs.

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Understanding Concepts

• The success of research hinges on:

– how clearly we conceptualize

– how well others understand the concepts we use

Table vs. Personality

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What is a Construct?

• A construct is an image or idea specifically invented for a given research and/or theory-building purpose.

• Exhibit 2-4

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Operational Definition

• a definition for a variable stated in terms of specific testing criteria or operations, specifying what must be counted, measured, or gathered through our senses.

• Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, Senior

• Beauty

• Achievement

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Types of Variables

• Independent

• Dependent

• Moderating

• Extraneous

• Intervening

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Independent and Dependent Variables

• Researchers are most interested in relationships among variables.

• Does a participative leadership style influence job satisfaction ?

• Researchers hypothesize relationships of independence and dependence: They invent them, and then they try by reality testing to see if the relationships actually work out that way.

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Stock MarketPrice

New Product Success

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

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Reading abilitiesNumber of books

Independent variable Dependent variable

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Moderating Variables( 干擾變數或情境變數 )

• a second independent variable, believed to have a significant contributory or contingent effect on the originally stated IV-DV relationship; notation: MV.

• The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity.

• The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers.

• Whether a given variable is treated as an independent or as a moderating variable depends on the hypothesis.

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Reading abilitiesNumber of books


Parents’ literacy

Moderating variable

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Training programs Growth needs

Willingness to learn

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Training programs

Willingness to learn

Effects for those low in growth needs

Effects for those high in growth needs

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Extraneous Variables( 外生變數或外在變數 )

• variables to assume (because they have little affect, or their impact is randomized) or exclude from a research study.

• In routine office work, the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers.

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Intervening Variables( 中介變數 )

• a factor that affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated, thus its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderating variables on the dependent variable.

• the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity by increasing job satisfaction.

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Organizationaleffectiveness

Workforce diversity


Creativesynergy

Intervening variable

Time:

t2 t3t1

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Organizationaleffectiveness

Workforce diversity


Creativesynergy


t2 t3t1

Managerialexpertise

Moderating variable

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Theoretical Framework (1)

Communication among cockpit members

Communication between ground control and cockpit

Decentralization

Training of cockpit crew

Independent variable

Air-safetyviolations

Dependent variable

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Decentralization

Training of cockpit crew



Dependent variable

Nervousnessand

diffidence


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Decentralization



Dependent variable

Training

Moderating variable

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Propositions and Hypotheses

• We define a proposition as a statement about concepts that may be judged as true or false if it refers to observable phenomena.

• When a proposition is formulated for empirical testing, we call it a hypothesis

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Propositions and Hypotheses

• Dr. Chen has a higher-than-average achievement motivation.

• Faculty members at Dept. of Information Management, NTUST, have a higher-than-average achievement motivation.

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Descriptive Hypotheses

• American cities are experiencing budget difficulties.

• Answer to question.• Q: “Are American cities experiencing

budget difficulties ?”• Q: “What is the unemployment rate in

Detroit ?”• These are propositions that typically state

the existence, size, form, or distribution of some variable.

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Relational Hypotheses

• Describe a relationship between two variable with respect to some cases.

• Correlational hypothesesPeople in southern Taiwan give President Chen a more favorable rating than do people in northern Taiwan.

• Explanatory (causal) hypothesesAn increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income saved. (direction should be considered)

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Theoretical Framework Among Variables

MANAGEMENT STYLE

USER

PARTICIPATION

SYSTEM

SUCESS

People-Oriented

Task-Oriented

H3

H3

H2

H2

H1

From Paper Reading Assignment 1

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The Role of the Hypothesis

• Guides the direction of the study

• Identifies facts that are relevant

• Suggests which form of research design is appropriate

• Provides a framework for organizing the conclusions that result

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What is a Good Hypothesis?

• A good hypothesis should fulfill three conditions:– Must be adequate for its purpose– Must be testable– Must be better than its rivals

• See Exhibit 2-6 for details

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Theory

• a set of systematically interrelated concepts, definitions and propositions that are advanced to explain or predict phenomena (facts); the generalizations we make about variables and the relationships among variables.

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Theory – Paper Reading Assignment 2

• TAM, Technology Acceptance Model

PerceivedUsefulness

(PU)

PerceivedEase of Use

(PEOU)

Attitude(ATT)

BehavioralIntention

(BI)

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• TPB, Theory of Planned Behavior

Attitude(ATT)

BehavioralIntention

(BI)

SubjectiveNorms(SN)

PerceivedBehavioral

Control(PBC)

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• TAM and TPB

Compatibility(COM)

PerceivedUsefulness

(PU)

PerceivedEase of Use

(PEOU)

Attitude(ATT)

BehavioralIntention

(BI)

SubjectiveNorms(SN)

PerceivedBehavioral

Control(PBC)

The TAM Model

The TPB Model

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The Value of a Theory

• Narrows the range of facts we need to study

• Suggests which research approaches will yield the greatest meaning

• Suggests a data classification system

• Summarizes what is known about an object of study

• Predicts further facts that should be found

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Models

• a representation of a system that is constructed to study some aspect of that system or the system as a whole.

• Models differ from theories in that a theory’s role is explanation whereas a model’s role is representation.

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Different Types of Models

• Descriptive modelsDescribe the behavior of elements in a system where theory is inadequate or nonexistent

• Explicative modelsExtend the application of well-developed theories or improve our understanding of their key concepts

• Simulation modelsClarify the structural relations of concepts and attempt to reveal the process relations among them

2-1 chapter two applying scientific thinking to management problems

Documents

existentialism slide

balanced case slide

literary style of thinking

data collection slide

important sources of

literary style of thought

applicable knowledge

redlight traffic sign