19981998

Post-Soviet Central AsiaPost-Soviet Central Asia

20002000

A Personal ExperienceA Personal ExperienceDaene McKinneyDaene McKinney

Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

Some StatisticsSome Statistics

Central AsiaCentral Asia

Aral Sea BasinAral Sea Basin

Syr Darya

Water BalanceWater Balance

Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³

Rivers ~ 50 km³Rivers ~ 50 km³

Groundwater ~ 5 km³Groundwater ~ 5 km³

Precipitation ~ 5 km³Precipitation ~ 5 km³

Evaporation ~ 60 km³ Evaporation ~ 60 km³

Available to use ~ 55 km³Available to use ~ 55 km³

in the basinin the basin

Surface Water AvailabilitySurface Water Availability

Average YearAverage Year

Amu DaryaAmu Darya 78 km³78 km³

Syr Darya Syr Darya 37 km³37 km³

Total Total 115 km³115 km³

Not much change over Not much change over 100 years, but then …100 years, but then …

ARAL SEAARAL SEA

Aral Sea 1989 - 2005Aral Sea 1989 - 2005

The Shrinking Aral SeaThe Shrinking Aral Sea

Aral Sea CrisisAral Sea Crisis

12 x maximum permitted DDT 3/4 of people suffer from illness 70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous5 x death rate of former Soviet republics

… the environmental costs are so high that they go beyond the economic capacity of the newly independent republics in Central Asia.

- The World Bank

Recent Water Recent Water BalanceBalance

E

E

P

P

Inflow

Inflow

Northern Aral Sea

Southern Aral Sea

Syr Darya

Amu Darya

Will it dry up completely?

Why or why not?

Aral Sea Basin States:Aral Sea Basin States:Some StatisticsSome Statistics

Does this allocation seem fair to you?

Why or why not?

Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – 2000)2000)

Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?

Water used in irrigation

Finding the Aral Sea

Finding the Aral Sea - 2

The Boats

Can you say “Gydro-uzel”?

KazakhstanKazakhstan

AlmatyAlmaty(where we lived)(where we lived)

Astana - Ice CityAstana - Ice City

Syr Darya BasinSyr Darya Basin

Transboundary Water Resources:Transboundary Water Resources:

Upstream – KyrgyzstanUpstream – Kyrgyzstan

Water for electricity (heating) needed in winterWater for electricity (heating) needed in winter

Downstream – UzbekistanDownstream – Uzbekistan

Water for irrigation needed in summerWater for irrigation needed in summer

Who should get the water? When?How can these needs be balanced?

Syr Darya BasinSyr Darya Basin

Water

Coal

Natural Gas

Ag Prod.

Ag Prod.Keep

Warm!

Water

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz Fuel AvailabilityKyrgyz Fuel Availability

USSR Breakup

Toktogul ReservoirToktogul Reservoir

Toktogul Reservoir 1988-Toktogul Reservoir 1988-20002000

Some Kyrgyz Sights

A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School

Bazarbai Mambetov

Central Asia Central Asia Water & Energy Round TableWater & Energy Round Table

USAID supportedUSAID supportedWater and energy representatives ofWater and energy representatives of

Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

Created by Governments to Created by Governments to Develop treaty on Syr DayraDevelop treaty on Syr Dayra

Develop country positions on issuesDevelop country positions on issuesServe interests of all countries equallyServe interests of all countries equally

Identify directions agreeable to all countriesIdentify directions agreeable to all countriesObtain advocacy for activities within each countryObtain advocacy for activities within each country

Bring work to attention of PresidentsBring work to attention of Presidents

Tajikistan

TurkmenistanTurkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Amirkhan Kenshimov

The FutureThe Future

Any Questions?Any Questions?

No cameras allowed!KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000