1977 an experimental approach to bandwagon research

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American Association for Public Opinion Research

An Experimental Approach to Bandwagon ResearchAuthor(s): Robert NavazioReviewed work(s):Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 2 (Summer, 1977), pp. 217-225

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AnExperimentalpproachto Bandwagon esearch

ROBERT NAVAZIO

SRVEY researchersavehadmuch ifficultyn solatinghempactf

exposureto poll results rom ll the otherfactors hat nfluence ublicopinion (Lang and Lang, 1968a:217). Klapper's 1964 reviewof band-wagon researchfound"no absolutely onclusive videncethat . . thepublication of poll resultsdoes or does not affect he subsequentvotes.... To whatextent uch effects ccur,whether hey ancel eachother ut,are matters n whichno reliable vidence s available."1Since1964, fourmajor bandwagon tudieshave usedthe natural xperimentaldesignprovidedwhenwestern otershavetheopportunityohearearlyeastern lectionreturns efore heyvote (Fuchs, 1966; Lang and Lang,1965; Mendelsohn, 966; Tuchmanand Coffin, 971). Each of thesefourstudiesfound thatregistered oterswho wereexposed to earlyreturnswereno more and no less) likely o switch ither heir andidateprefer-encesor turnoutntentions hanwereregisteredoterswho werenotex-posed to earlyreturns efore heyvoted.Thesefindingso indicate hatbroadcasts fearlyreturnsn electiondayhad little mpact n presiden-tialelectionresults.Butthe single trongestxplanation orthis ack ofimpact-the fact hatopinions oncerning andidates n an election endto growmore tableas election ay drawsnear Mendelsohn nd Crespi,1970:179)-also suggests hatthe studies fbandwagon effects n west-ernvotingwere onducted t a timewhenbandwagon ffectsould beex-pectedto be at theirweakest nd to have less impact hantheymight t

Abstract This articledescribes n experimentnwhichexperimentalnd control ues-tionnaireswere sent to two differentamplegroups of respondents. oth questionnairescontained he ame four pinionquestions nd were dentical o each other xcept hat ach

opinion question on theexperimentaluestionnairewas precededbythemostrecentna-tionalpoll result n thatquestion.Comparisons f theresponses o bothquestionnaires e-vealed that blue-collarworkers eemed to react negativelywhilewhite-collarworkersseemed oreactpositivelyinbothopinion ndresponse ate)to thenationalpoll results.

RobertNavazio is a graduate tudentntheDepartment fPolitical cience,UniversityofNorthCarolina,Chapel Hill, and is currentlynemployee t FDA. The authorwishes othankDr. GeorgeRabinowitz nd Dr. FrankMunger,withoutwhoseencouragementndsupport hisresearchwould nothave been completed. POQ 41 (1977) 217-225

1 Klapper is quoted in Mendelsohn nd Crespi 1970: 18).







218 ROBERT NAVAZIO

othertimes.Caution is therefore arrantedngeneralizinghe nullre-sultsfound n the studiesof bandwagoneffectsn western oting.The

status nd nature fbandwagoneffectsemainunclear.The resultsof the experimentaltudypresentedhere are, unfortu-nately, oo limited n scope and ingeneralizabilityo dispel the ack ofclarity oncerning andwagoneffects o any greatdegree. t is hoped,however, hattheexperimentalmethodby which heseresultswereob-tainedcan be a useful ool forresearchers ho arecurious o learnmoreabout bandwagoneffects s well as about thepublic imageof opinionpolls and the mediathroughwhichpoll results re presented.

Experimentalesign

A random ample of 500 names was drawnfrom he 1974CityDirec-tory fEden,NorthCarolina.2The sample of 500was divided nto twogroupsof 250 each. The controlgroup, onsisting f theeven-numberednames onthesample ist,was sent questionnairencluding our pinionquestions takenfromGallup and Harrispolls evaluating heperform-ance ofthen-Presidentixon. The experimentalroup, onsistingf theodd-numbered ameson thesample ist,was sent questionnairedenti-

cal to theone sent to thecontrolgroup,withone exception:precedingeachopinionquestion n the xperimentaluestionnaire,hemostrecentnationalpoll results-all of whichwere tronglyritical f Mr.Nixon3-for achquestionwerereported. ll of thequestionnaires eremailedonMarch 1, 1974. On March 11 followup postcardswere sent to thesepeoplewho had notyetresponded,sking hem o do so. Thelastrespon-ses werereceivedby March 22. Ten of thepeople in theexperimentalgroupand 11 inthe controlgroupwereunreachable ymail.Ofthe479questionnairesuccessfully ailed,203werereturned.he response ate

was 42 percent.Byusing nformationntheEdenCityDirectory,t waspossible ode-termine hat therewere no significantifferencesn sex and occupation

2 Eden was chosen s the urvey itebecause an up-to-date ity irectory as available forit and because t s a city mall enough hat n unstratifiedample of 500 had a good chanceofbeing representative.o effort as made to obtain a sample that was representativefthestateoranyotherpartof thecountry. aution must husbe used n nferringesults e-yond Eden's borders.

3 Respondentswere nformed, rior o the appropriate uestion, hatrecent oll resultsindicated:

a. that68 percent f theAmericanpeople thoughtMr. Nixonwas doingeither fair rapoor ob as President;b. that 78 percent f the Americanpeople rated Mr. Nixon as either airor poor at in-

spiring onfidence;c. that56 percent f theAmericanpeople thoughtMr. Nixon had notbeenhonest on-

cerning he financing f his privatehomes;andd. that66 percent fthe Americanpeoplewere dissatisfied ith hewaythecountrywas

beinggoverned.







BANDWAGON RESEARCH 219

between heexperimentalnd control roups.Therewere lso no signifi-cant differencesn age, race, or town-countrywelling lace between herespondents n the experimental nd controlgroups. n addition,boththe experimental nd control groups approximated he demographiccharacteristicsf Eden and of Rockingham ounty.4 t isthereforerob-able, insofaras it can be determined, hat observed differencesn re-sponse between heexperimentalnd control roups redue to thediffer-ence in experimental reatment, nd not to differencesn the demo-graphic omposition f the two groups.

Hypotheses

Straightforwardbandwagon psychology"wouldpredict hat theex-perimental roupwillreact o thestronglyriticalmajorityuesgivenbythenationalpollresults hatwerereported n theexperimentaluestion-naire. fa bandwagon ffect ccurs, heexperimental roupwillbemorecritical f Mr. Nixon than thecontrolgroup. f an underdog ffect c-curs,theexperimental roupwillbe more favorable o Mr. Nixon thanthe controlgroup. f both bandwagon and underdog ffects ccur theymaybalance each other ut,but fso, this anbe detectedf hevarianceof opinion ntheexperimental roup s significantlyarger hanthevari-ance of opinion nthe controlgroup.

Someanalysts, owever, aveargued hat xposure onationalpollre-sultsdoes not nfluence ublicopinion along the inesustdescribed.Ac-cording o Katz (1972:24), "It is not sheernumbers hatproduce n im-pression f majority pinion to whichpeople conform ut the characterof themajoritynrelation o the ndividual's sychological roup mem-bership." Mendelsohnhas maintained hat exposure o poll resultswillpromote projection ffects"when people try o conform o what theythink heopinionof referenceroups mportanto themmight e) only fpoll results ive people information oncerning he opinion of "their"salientreference roups Mendelsohn and Crespi, 1970:22-24).To sup-porthisview,Mendelsohnhas cited n experimentaltudyby Atkin5nwhich he opinionsof studentswere nfluenced y exposure o poll infor-

4 Thoughdata arenot reported ere, hedemographicategories f the amplewere on-sistently ithin percentage ointsofequivalent ategories fthe townand county opu-lations as reported nthecensus.The occupations fnonrespondents ere aken fromist-ings ntheCityDirectory.Respondentsmarked heir ccupations n their uestionnaires.In each case specificobs were oded into three ategories-blue-collar, lerical, nd white-

collar-whichwere used to form n ordinaloccupational cale. Students, ousewives, ndretired eople wereeach coded into a separatecategory, incethere eemed no wayto fitthem nto theordinalscale.

5 Atkin's tudy s as far s I knowunpublished nd the only nformationvailable to meconcerning t was provided n Mendelsohn nd Crespi 1970:25). No claim s beingmadethat hispaper s using n experimentalpproach to bandwagonresearch or hefirst ime.The paper ratherntends o pointout some oftheadvantages n an experimentalpproachthatcompensate or ome ofthedisadvantages f a survey pproach.







220 ROBERT NAVAZIO

mationonly when he majority pinionof "their"reference roup (pre-sumably college students n general) was considerably ifferent rom

what theyhad anticipated.Atkinmaintained hat "only if one wereex-posed to poll reports oncerning ne's own reference roup,and ifthatreport onflicted ppreciablywith mpressions ne had garneredfromother ources,would therebe any likelihood hat one's own preferencewould be affected" Mendelsohn and Crespi, 1970:25). If these argu-ments re correct, he national poll results eportednthe experimentalquestionnaire hould not constitute meaningful eferrento the peopleinthe experimental roup, nd there hould be no significantifferencesineithermean opinionor invariance fopinion between heexperimen-

tal and controlgroups.Klapper, in turn 1949:48), has suggested hatmedia institutionsanconstitute eference roupsin themselves, ased on therole in societythatpeople perceive hem o play.A pattern f reactionsike thismakesmost ntuitive ense when partisanpreferences involved.For example,in 1964, more of theCaliforniaGoldwater voters 51 percent) n theLangs' samplethanJohnson oters 32 percent) elieved hat he lectionnight roadcastswould nfluence heelection Lang and Lang, 1965:12).Reference roupscan form n otherwaysas well. The Langs reported

(1968b:117, 137, 143) thatpeople ofabove averageefficacyas indicatedby strengthfparty dentification,ES, and political onfidence) endedto become "more eager" to vote uponhearing lectionnight roadcastsbefore heyvoted whilepeople of below average efficacyendedto be-come "less eager" to vote afterbeingexposed. If a pattern freactionssimilar o theone theLangs reportedwere to occurin thisexperiment,then differencesn opinionshouldoccurnot between heexperimentaland controlgroupsas wholes,but between ccupational ounterpartsntheexperimentalnd control roups.6n addition, n occupationalgroup

thatreactedpositivelyothepresence f thepollresultsnthe xperimen-tal questionnairemight e expectednotonlyto be more critical fMr.Nixonbut also to respond othequestionnairet a higher atethan heiroccupationalcounterpartsn thecontrolgroup. Conversely,n occupa-tional groupthatreactednegativelyo thepresence fthepoll resultsntheexperimentaluestionnairemight e expectednot only o be morefa-vorabletowardMr. Nixon but also to respond o thequestionnairet alower ratethan their ccupationalcounterpartsn thecontrolgroup.

Experimentalesults

Results fromthe experiment id not supportthe straightforward"bandwagon" hypothesishattheexperimentalroupwould differrom

6 Because of the necessary revity f the questionnaires, ccupation was the only in-dicatorof socioeconomic tatus.








Table 1. Spearman'sr: Correlations etweenGroup and Opinion

Level of

Groupwith: Significance N

Performance -.05 .23 200Confidence -.12 .05 201Honesty -.03 .32 201Satisfaction -.03 .34 199Scale of4 .01 .46 170

thecontrol roup neithermeanopinionoropinionvariance.Theexperi-mentalgroup did not differignificantlyrom hecontrol roup nmean

opinionon anyofthefouropinion questionsor on a Guttman cale ofthe fouropinion questions.7Nor was the varianceofopinionon anyofthefour uestions r on theGuttman cale n the xperimental roup ig-nificantly ifferenthan the variancesin the opinions of the controlgroup.8 he singledifferencen eithermean opinion or opinionvariancebetween he experimentalnd control roups hat pproached tatisticalsignificancep = .12) was a differencenmeanopinionon a question hatasked people how well they houghtMr. Nixon was doingat inspiringconfidence. he experimental roupwas more critical f Mr. Nixon onthisquestion hanwas the control roup,perhaps ndicatinghat slightbandwagoneffectmayhave occurred.However,the Harrispoll result(that78 percentof the Americanpeople believed that Mr. Nixon wasdoingonly fair r a poor ob at inspiring ublic onfidence) eportedntheexperimental uestionnairewith hisquestion s strong vidence hatMr. Nixon was in fact not doing a good job at inspiring ublic con-fidence. eactions othispoll result ould thusbe expected o be strongerthan reactions o the otherpoll resultswhich onveyedmajority pinionbutnot concrete videncepointing o a "correct" nswer o thequestion:Spearman'sR's takenbetweenrespondents' roup experimental 0,control= 1) and their pinionconfirm hattheslight andwagonreac-tion nresponses o theConfidence uestionwas uniqueto thatquestion(Table 1). The responses o theConfidence uestion constitute n ex-ception o a rulethatexposure o the nationalpoll results n theexperi-mental uestionnaire romotedno significantifferencesnopinion be-tween heexperimentalnd controlgroups compared s wholes.

Resultsfrom heexperiment o support he hypothesishatdifferencesin meanopinionand responserate would occur not between he experi-mentaland control groups compared as wholes but betweenoccupa-tionalcounterparts ithin hetwo groups.Consistentfnot always sig-

I P-values f T-tests or differencen meanwere 53, 12, 64, 49,and .45respectively.8 P-valuesof F-testsfora differencen variancewere 95, .51, .84, .29, and .85 respec-

tively.







222 ROBERT NAVAZIO

Table 2. Change in Mean Opinion of Occupational CounterpartsetweenExperimentaland ControlGroups Mean Opinion nExperimental roupMinus Mean Opinion n

ControlGroup)

Blue-Collar Clerical White-CollarQuestion Workers Workers Workers

Performance -.40 +.33 +.36Confidence -.11 +.36 +.47Honesty -.24 +.14 +.25Satisfaction -.30 +.12 +.07Scale of4 -.57 +.40 +.53

nificant ifferencesn meanopinionon all four uestionsdo occurwhenoccupational ounterparts ithinhe wogroups recompared.Blue-col-lar workersn the experimental roupare more favorable o Mr. Nixonthanareblue-collarworkersn thecontrol roup.Clerical nd white-col-lar workers n the experimental roup are more criticalof Mr. Nixonthan re clerical ndwhite-collar orkersnthecontrol roup9Table 2).Put nanotherway,opinionvariesdirectly ith ccupation nthe xperi-mental roup,butopinion ndoccupation re ndependentfeach otherin the controlgroup Table 3).

The pattern f differencesnopinion s accompaniedbydifferencesnresponserate. Although herewas no significantifferencen responseratebetween heexperimentalnd controlgroupscompared s wholes;blue-collarworkersnthe experimental roupwerenotonlymorefavor-able to Mr.Nixon, they lso responded o thequestionnairet a signifi-cantly ower rate than did blue-collarworkers n the controlgroup.White-collar orkersntheexperimental roupnotonlyweremorecriti-

Table 3. Spearman'sr: Correlations etweenOccupation nd Opinion

Experimental roup ControlGroup

Levelof LevelofOccupationwith: r Significance N r Significance N

Performance .16 .11 59 -.12 .16 75Confidence .20 .06 60 .01 .48 75Honesty .19 .08 60 -.04 .37 75Satisfaction .25 .02 60 .02 .43 74Scale of4 .32 .01 51 .01 .48 65

9 Readers mightwonderwhy heoffsettingccupational ffectsnopiniondidnot preadthevariance of opinion in the experimental roup so that twouldbe detectably reaterthanthevariance fopinion n thecontrol roup.The answer sthat hough hevariance fopinionwas spread ntheexperimental lue-collar roup, t was concentratednthe xperi-mentalclerical and white-collar roups. Thus change in variance was offsetust as waschange nmean opinion.The entire xperimentalffect as thushidden s long as the ex-perimental nd controlgroups were compared s wholes.








Table 4. Differencesn ResponseRate

N Mean P-value*

Entire ampleExperimental 243 1.60 .57Control 245 1.57

Blue-collarworkersExperimental 88 1.74 .04Control 94 1.60

White-collar orkersExperimental 36 1.31 .03Control 34 1.56

* For thedifferencen mean between xperimentalnd controlrespondents.

cal of Mr. Nixon butthey lso responded othequestionnairet a signifi-cantlyhigherrate than did white-collarworkers n the controlgroup(Table 4).

Expressednanotherway, heexperimentaluestionnaire iscouragedblue-collar esponse nd encouragedwhite-collar esponse,with here-sult thatthe respondents o the experimentaluestionnaire ad a signifi-cantlyhighermeanoccupationthan did therespondentso thecontrolquestionnaire Table 5). This occurreddespitethe factthatthe controlgroupas a whole did not differignificantlynmean occupationfrom heexperimental roup withoccupation nformationboutnonrespondentsfrom he Eden City Directoryncluded n thecomputation).

Conclusion

The pattern f results as indicated hat he presence f the poll intheexperimentaluestionnaire cted as a positive eferrentor hewhite-col-lar workers nd as a negative eferrentor he blue-collarworkers n theexperimental roup.This pattern f results oes not upport he dea thatexposureto national poll results an have no effect n public opinion.The pattern f results oes support he theory hatan opinion poll canplaya role as a reference roup n itself.

Clearly, autionshouldbe used indeterminingow muchreliance oplace in these results.Not only do the results uffer rom he imits ngeneralizabilityharacteristicf small group experiments,hey lso lack

Table 5. DifferenceetweenGroups nMean OccupationofRespondents

N Mean P-value*

Experimental 60 2.03 .02Control 75 1.69

* For thedifferencen mean.







224 ROBERTNAVAZIO

sufficienttatistical ignificanceo clearly emonstrate definiteattern.It should also be rememberedhat he trengthf bandwagon ffectsb-

served n an experimentalituationwillbe greatly iminishedn real ifeby the fairlyow percentage f thepublic that s knowledgeable boutopinion poll results.Given thesequalifications, he experimentalesignused in thisstudyhas thecompensatorydvantagesof beingeasilyrep-licable10 nd low in cost. In additionto their heoreticalnterest,here-sultsobtained nthis xperiment avedemonstratedhe usefulness fanexperimentalpproach to bandwagonresearch.

Appendix: xperimentaluestionnaire

Hello,

This s anopinion oll onductedy studentt theUniversityfNorth aro-linaDepartmentfPolitical cience.Wewould ike o find uthowpeople eelaboutPresident ixon.You canhelp lotby nsweringhe uestionssked e-lowandreturninghis heetnthe nclosed eturnnvelope. leasedo not ignyour heetfyoudon'twant o.Allreturns illbe kept ntirelyonfidential.

ThankYou verymuch,(Signed) OBERT NAVAZIO

1. A recent arris oll shows hat 8 percentf theAmerican eople hinkMr.Nixon sdoing ither fair r a poor ob as President,nd30percenthinkhe s doing good to excellentob.

How wouldyourate heob Mr. Nixon sdoing s President?excellent ; prettyood.; only air.; poor -

2. A recent arris oll hows hat 8percentf heAmericaneople ateMr.Nixon ither air rpoor n nspiringonfidence,nd17percentate im ood oexcellent.

Howwouldyourate hePresidentnpersonallynspiringonfidence?excellent ; pretty

ood.;only

air.;poor -

3. A recent arris ollshows hat 6percentftheAmericaneople hinkMr.Nixonhasn't eenhonest bout he inancingfhishousesnSanClementeandKeyBiscayne,6percenthink e has beenhonest,nd18percentrenotsure.

Do youfeelMr. Nixonhas beenhonest bout he inancingfhishouses nSanClementendKey Biscayne?

beenhonest__; notbeenhonest ; not ure___

4. Arecent alluppoll hows hat 6percentftheAmericaneople redis-satisfied ith heway his ations being overned,6percentre atisfied,nd8

percentre not ure.Areyou atisfiedr dissatisfiedith heway hisnation sbeing overned?satisfieL ; dissatisfiel ; noopinion

10It would be interestingo replicate he experimentot only ndifferenteographic rdemographicreas, but also usingpoll result ues thatwere ess strong nd clearthantheresults eported n theexperimentaluestionnaire sed in thisexperiment.








5. Please also markdownthesefacts bout yourself. hese factsmay helptoshow howdifferenteoplemightook at thingsndifferentays.

a. Are you a male__ or a female ?

b. How old wereyou on your astbirthday? yearsc. Do you live n town__ or in the country ?d. Whatkind f workdo youdo? for xample: arpenter,lerk,waitress, tc.)d. What is yourrace?American ndian__; white ; black

other please specify)

Thankyou againverymuch. Please fold nd mail this heet ntheenclosedre-turn nvelope.

References

Fuchs,Douglas1966"Election-dayadio-televisionnd western oting." ublicOpinion

Quarterly0:226-36.Katz,Daniel

1972"Attitude ormationnd public opinion." n Daniel NimmoandCharlesBonjean ed.), PoliticalAttitudesnd PublicOpinion.NewYork:McKay.

Klapper, oseph1949The EffectsfMassMedia.NewYork:Columbia niversityureau f

Applied ocialResearch.

Lang,Kurt, ndGladys ang1965"Ballots ndbroadcasts." aperpresentedothe 1965ConferenceftheAmerican ssociationf PublicOpinionResearch.

1968aPolitics ndTelevision.hicago:Quadrangle.1968bVoting nd Non-Voting. altham: laisdell.

Mendelsohn,arold1966"Election-dayroadcastsnd erminalotingecisions." ublic pinion

Quarterly0:212-225.Mendelsohn,arold, ndIrving respi

1970Polls,TelevisionndtheNewPolitics. cranton:handler.Tuchman,amuel nd ThomasE. Coffin

1971 "The influencef electionnight elevision roadcasts n a closeelection." ublicOpinionQuarterly5:315-326.

1977 an experimental approach to bandwagon research

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