1945 to 2005 The ability of mankind to destroy

itselfHISTORY AND HOPES FOR THE FUTURE

Richard Wilson Harvard University

talk at: Sandia National Laboratory

March 28th 2005

“Christendom has no catastrophe equal to the Black Death.”

1/3 the world population died “The records of England tell more by their silence than by the shocking

figures that confront us wherever records were kept”

WS Churchill

The terrible chemical weapons that came into prominence in

World War I, at Ypres and elsewhere,

do not compete with Nature. With them, mankind cannot

destroy itself.

But on August 6th 1945 everything changed.

1940 100lbs = 0.05 tons1944 1 ton “blockbusters”1945 10,000 tons1960 5,000,000 tons

Meteorite Impact that destroyed the dinosaurs

5,000,000,000 tons

July 1945 (Alamgordo)Bhagavad Gita via Oppenheimer

“I have become Death; the Destroyer of Worlds”.

Ken Bainbridge: “we’ll all be called sons of bitches now”.

Einstein and SzilardInternational Control

vs. Groves

America must always be strong and ahead

(Contrast: courtesy of Jonathan Schell)

Baruch plan 1946Acheson - Lilienthal

Eisenhower --- Atoms for PeaceDecember 8th 1953

followed byNuclear Non Proliferation Treaty

(NPT)

The CarrotImmediate access to Peaceful

Nuclear technologyand

The StickAgreement to forego nuclear

weapons (and agree to inspections)

Criticism of Atoms for Peace and NPT

“only a social psychologist could hope to explain why the possessors of the most terrible weapons in history should have

sought to spread the necessary industry to produce them in the belief that this would

make the world safer” Beaton

In weapons states, the USSR and USA, Atoms for Peace and NPT

have been a failure. Article IV of the NPT treaty enjoins all states with nuclear weapons to reduce

them. 1987 each had more than 10,000 bombs

ready mounted on delivery vehicles pure fuel in reserve for 20,000 more

1/4 hospital admissions involve nuclear technology.

Particle accelerators and radioactive

sources for therapy. CAT scanners, and Magnetic

Resonance Imaging Radioimmunoassay

Nuclear Research Reactors

95% enriched uranium The US to its “client states” including South Vietnam;

USSR to its “client states”Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yugoslavia

(No diversion but now not done)BUT

Heavy water reactorsCanada to India

France to Israel (Dimona)Plutonium produced, separated and bombs made

8 countries have nuclear weapons,

5 “weapons states” and 3 non signatories,

India, Israel and Pakistan, not 100 countries considered

likely in 1946

May 1991 defense minister of the Soviet Union, Marshal Yazov.

“The Chernobyl Accident was very important. If a power station not designed to explode

caused that much mess, it showed those of us who did not already know that a nuclear war

would destroy the planet”. Before Chernobyl USSR leaders would not

have been deterred by 200 nuclear weapons.

US leaders in 2005 seem no better.

Selling reprocessing without a civilian need:

1970 Germany proposed to sell to BrazilFrance proposed to sell to PakistanItaly sells fuel fabrication facility to

Iraq (delivered)“Supplier” countries now do not. Iran making isotope separation?

Preemeptive StrikesOSIRAK unsuited for bomb making

Iraq bomb program started after bombing

CIA and MOSSAD did not know details of Iraq program

Before preemption be technically accurate.

Who decides?

InspectionsOpenness is the key

Inquistive; keep eyes open; obtain intelligence from abroad

Before 1991: IAEA inspected only declared facilities

Grossly INADEQUATEDavid Kaye in 1991 did fine.

Genetic Manipulation

MAY enable small pox (or other)to be easily airborne

Harder to control

Maybe destroy mankind before vaccine available

EDUCATION is woefully inadequate

especially educate leaders even inadequate in Russia and USA

start in schoolsvisit countries that might proliferate

Japan, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Argentine Taiwan and Brazil started but stopped.

South Africa, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan got rid of them

Why?

What do we do about:India?

Pakistan?Israel?

Who are outside NPTbut have bombs!!

Are all nations equal?NPT suggested only two groups:weapons states & non weapons states

We have also: supplier nations“trusted” nations

Can we get USA and RF to cut back to 100 bombs each?What about ABM treaty?

Who does the trusting?Groves

or Einstein- Szilard?

• Biological Weapons

I am worried about an artificial plague, that kills 90% of the human race, not a

biological attack that kills 30,000 or less.

• Is it plausible?

• Can one exclude it?

Biological Weapons

Smaller. MUCH harder to inspect

Use of defectors necessaryInspection has

NEVER been fully triedFirst “experiment” on inspection in 2003 was rudely terminated

Defense may be similar to defense against natural viruses

AIDSLassa Fever

SARS

Maybe we should emphasize this.

Western society changed when antibiotics reduced infectious

diseases

We put human rights ahead of stopping infection

We no longer quarantine

Stopping spread of infectionis analogous to preventing access to atomic bombsBe willing to suggest drastic and unusual measures

Use all clues to infectionInternational rapid action center for diagnosing

symptoms (Dr Lane at UCLA)

Check for disease vectors at airports(rapid thermometry?)

may be more important than stopping knives or gunsPassengers and crew might have face masks

Quarantine may be necessary

Should hospitals in NY test pregnant women for HIV and

insist on AZT treatment to protect the child?

Some human rights groups said no

I said yes

For AIDS there are two conflicting motives

Society wants to reduce the time

a person can infect another

The individual wants his life extended

These are hard issues

AIDS could be eliminated by a small change in human behavior

But that small change has proved very hard to make

“the price of existence is

eternal vigilance”.

Modified from Voltaire

http://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilsonhttp://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilson/publications/ppaper865.html