19 february daily technical trader
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 19 February 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
BRES 48.25 46.60
NLCS 21.77 21.35
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,561.86 0.1 10.6
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900
Support 12,350 12,250 12,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index had a shallow trading session yesterday. It moved slightly up then started to correct in the second half of the session, creating a longer shadow on the daily candlestick. Technical indicators did not change significantly to reassess the present status of the market. We already concluded in the previous reports that we expect the correction to extend further and we reiterate our stance on that. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 18 Feb 15 17 Feb 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 509.6 628.1 -18.9
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 679.3 678.9 0.1
Volume (mn) 12.7 14.5 -12.7
Number of Trans. 5,405 6,268 -13.8
Companies Traded 39 40 -2.5
Market Breadth 14:19 11:26 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,879.83 0.2 60.7
All Share Index 3,256.40 0.2 62.6
Banks 3,287.51 0.7 60.4
Industrials 4,037.50 0.4 58.5
Transportation 2,465.74 -0.1 68.9
Real Estate 2,516.65 -0.6 60.7
Insurance 4,057.91 -0.7 65.7
Telecoms 1,405.53 -0.9 47.8
Consumer 7,516.89 0.3 69.8
Al Rayan Islamic 4,413.82 0.4 65.3
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MCGS 146.00 -1.4 77.1
AHCS 18.60 -0.5 74.1
QATI 93.70 0.0 73.9
QIIK 88.10 0.6 72.1
QGTS 25.10 0.4 71.8
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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BRES
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 48.25 -0.52 892,533
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 48.60 49.60 50.00
Support 47.30 46.40 46.00
Commentary
Overview: BRES is going through a bullish leg and the short-term up trend is still intact. However, it is important to note that the name has been trading in a range in the last two weeks, and the MACD is starting to lose momentum. Thus, a correction is possible if the price breaks below QR47.30. Expected Price Retreat: QR46.60 Price breach below QR47.30 is needed before the sell order is entered.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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NLCS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 21.77 -0.59 63,772
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 22.40 22.70 23.20
Support 21.74 21.35 21.00
Commentary
Overview: The name reached a previous peak at QR23.00. That peak established a Long-Legged Doji in the previous week, just below the downtrend medium-term. The preceding indicates a possible correction might take place. The price moved slightly lower since then. The MACD suggests that the correction may continue further. Expected Price Retreat: QR21.35 – QR21.00 A break below QR21.74 is needed to trigger the sell position.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,561.86 12,439.18 12,488.51 12,518.99 12,568.32 12,617.65 12,648.13 12,697.46 12,123.16 12,818.65 12,985.39
Total Return 18,879.83 18,695.44 18,769.59 18,815.40 18,889.54 18,963.69 19,009.50 19,083.64 18,110.57 19,133.39 19,374.17
All Share 3,256.40 3,226.71 3,238.21 3,245.32 3,256.83 3,268.33 3,275.44 3,286.95 3,111.89 3,267.25 3,298.60
Al Rayan Islamic 4,413.82 4,356.33 4,376.57 4,389.08 4,409.33 4,429.57 4,442.08 4,462.33 4,108.48 4,331.11 4,378.91
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.50 47.93 48.18 48.34 48.58 48.83 48.99 49.23 45.49 48.42 51.14
CBQK 68.60 67.40 67.86 68.14 68.60 69.06 69.34 69.80 67.65 70.08 69.20
DHBK 57.60 57.33 57.45 57.52 57.63 57.75 57.82 57.93 56.59 57.63 59.17
QIBK 107.00 102.13 103.89 104.98 106.73 108.49 109.58 111.33 103.18 106.75 104.86
QIIK 88.00 87.20 87.62 87.88 88.30 88.72 88.98 89.40 80.91 83.61 84.65
Insurance
QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 147.50 143.37 144.55 145.28 146.47 147.65 148.38 149.57 122.31 125.02 113.62
Industrials
IQCD 153.20 150.53 151.68 152.39 153.53 154.68 155.39 156.53 159.99 175.11 178.97
QEWS 191.50 189.83 190.60 191.07 191.83 192.60 193.07 193.83 189.60 189.04 187.76
GISS 102.00 99.33 100.48 101.19 102.33 103.48 104.19 105.33 97.04 107.87 106.63
QIGD 45.20 40.27 41.68 42.55 43.97 45.38 46.25 47.67 39.58 44.90 52.51
Real Estate
BRES 48.25 47.15 47.53 47.77 48.15 48.53 48.77 49.15 44.00 44.33 42.37
UDCD 24.10 23.79 23.91 23.98 24.10 24.22 24.29 24.41 23.86 25.52 26.27
ERES 16.94 16.57 16.76 16.88 17.07 17.26 17.38 17.57 15.22 17.14 19.87
MRDS 19.80 19.39 19.59 19.72 19.93 20.13 20.26 20.47 19.40 21.30 20.93
Telecommunication
ORDS 114.00 113.33 113.72 113.95 114.33 114.72 114.95 115.33 116.15 120.24 128.28
VFQS 17.04 16.41 16.68 16.85 17.11 17.38 17.55 17.81 15.95 17.82 18.78
Transportation
QGTS 25.05 24.92 24.97 25.01 25.07 25.12 25.16 25.22 23.26 23.65 23.75
QNNS 103.50 102.83 103.02 103.14 103.33 103.52 103.64 103.83 97.99 98.21 96.31 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
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